Australia: Fires Highlight Government’s Climate Challenge

Australia: Fires Highlight Government’s Climate Challenge

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March 11, 2020
Australia: Fires Highlight Government’s Climate Challenge
Overview
rainfall in 2019 was the lowest since records began in 1900
The recent devastating bush fires in Australia highlight the
and was 40% less than normal. 2019 was also the first year
country’s growing dilemma over climate change.
that the hottest and driest years in Australia overlapped.
Australia’s economy remains heavily weighted toward
extractive industries, leading to greenhouse gas (GHG)
The Australian government reports that their Forest Fire
emissions linked to climate change. A growing portion of
Danger Index has increased at 16 of 38 sites over the period
voters see climate change as a threat to Australia’s vital
from 1973 to 2010. According to the Australian
interests. Many are pressuring Prime Minister Scott
government, surface temperatures over land and
Morrison’s right of center Liberal-National Party Coalition
surrounding seas increased by 3.2℉ since the beginning of
to take additional steps to reduce emissions and combat
the 20th century. The frequency of very warm months has
climate change.
increased, as has average rainfall. More frequent extreme
heat and flooding events raise risks to human health and to
Figure 1. Australia Fires Sept. 2019–Jan. 2020
livestock production. Sea levels vary significantly year-to-
year, mostly associated with natural variability, though the
rising trend is less than the global average sea level rise.
According to the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority,
“[c]limate change is the greatest threat to the Great Barrier
Reef” due to bleaching during high temperature episodes
and severe weather. Australia’s Department of Agriculture,
Water and the Environment has found that “Australia faces
significant environmental and economic impacts from
climate change across a number of sectors.”
The Fires’ Effect on Political Debate
These developments, particularly the recent fires, appear to
be affecting Australians’ attitudes towards climate change.
Source: Created by CRS using data from NASA (FIRMS MODIS
According to a 2019 Lowy poll, Australians ranked climate
and/or VIIRS Fire/Hotspot) and ESRI.
change as the first of ten possible threats to Australia’s vital
interests over the next ten years, and 64% of those polled
The Fires
view climate change as a “critical threat.” This was an
According to the Australian government, “Australia is one
increase of six percentage points from 2018 and an 18 point
of the most fire prone regions in the world.” Nonetheless,
rise since 2014. The Lowy poll also found that 59% of
the 2019-2020 fires were extraordinary. (See Figure 1.)
Australians polled believe the opposition Labor Party
would do a better job of managing Australia’s response to
More than 27.2 million acres of vegetation, 33 people, an
estimated one billion animals, and over 2,500 homes were
climate change than the Coalition.
lost to bushfires in Australia in the 2019-2020 fire season.
(Fire Season normally lasts from October 1 to March 31.)
Prime Minister Morrison appears to some analysts to have
The area burned is larger than South Korea and 46% larger
won the May 2019 election in part because he emphasized
than the area burned in the Amazon in 2019. Sydney’s air
the costs of climate action rather than the threat from
quality became a health risk, and parts of the nation’s
climate change itself. However, the fires of 2019 and 2020
capital Canberra had to be evacuated at one point. The
may have shifted many Australians’ perceptions of the
Australian army was called to assist firefighters, and the
relative costs. According to a Newspoll, Morrison’s
navy evacuated people by sea from coastal communities cut
approval rating dropped 8 points from December 2019 to
off by fire. The New York Times reported the estimated cost
January 2020.
to Australia’s economy to be between $3 and $3.5 billion.
The fires appear to have reignited past debates within the
Climate Change and Wildfires in
Liberal-National Coalition on climate change policy. In
Australia
December 2019, the New South Wales Young Liberals
Several researchers have found that projected climate
called on the government to make changes to address the
“extraordinary challenges presented by human
changes show a trend towards more dangerous fire weather
-induced
climate change.” In February 2020, Morrison reportedly
conditions in Australia. The year 2019 was the hottest year
on record for Australia. (See Figure 2.) The average
faced opposition from within the Coalition party room over
his government’s climate change policy. Several Coalition
daytime maximum temperature in Australia was reportedly
2.7 degrees Fahrenheit above average. Australia’s average
Members of Parliament (MP) reportedly argued that the
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Australia: Fires Highlight Government’s Climate Chal enge
Coalition should embrace more ambitious climate change
Australian Reliance on Coal and Natural
action. A Liberal MP’s February 2020 proposal to establish
Gas
a dedicated climate change minister was reportedly opposed
Australia is one of the world’s largest producers and
by National Party members and hardline Liberals. In
exporters of coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Coal is
February 2020, two other Liberal MPs declared that the
Australia’s second largest export, reaching $49 billion in
government should not support new coal-fired power
total value in financial year 2018-2019, and is used to
stations. Others argued against adopting “reactionary”
generate approximately two-thirds of Australia’s electricity.
climate policies in response to the bushfire crisis.
LNG exports increased 61% in 2018-2019, and were
estimated to be worth $35 billion. Some in Australia argue
By January 2020, Morrison, who had previously appeared
that LNG exports reduce global emissions by avoiding
reluctant to discuss the link between climate change and the
power generation from coal. The U.S. Energy Information
fires, stated that the government could evolve its policies in
Administration projects that Australia is on track to export
order to reduce emissions but without putting additional
more LNG than Qatar and become the world’s largest LNG
costs on Australians or risking hurting resource industries.
exporter. A 2019 report ranked Australia third behind
Russia and Saudi Arabia in its fossil fuel exports according
Current opposition Labor Party Leader Anthony Albanese
to emissions potential.
has emphasized the need to create clean energy jobs while
advocating for a low carbon future. The Labor Party favors
According to some observers, economic reliance on coal
more aggressive emissions reductions targets and has
and LNG has made some Australian governments reluctant
reaffirmed its commitment to reach zero net emissions by
to adopt climate change policies that could potentially
2050. The Australia Greens party has called for Australia to
undermine the industry. Scott Morrison’s support for the
become a leader in climate action while developing a
Adani coal mine being developed in Queensland, Australia,
renewable energy economy. Greens Parliamentary Leader
for example, is credited as one of the factors that helped
Adam Bandt reportedly will advocate for a Green New
him win a surprise victory in the 2019 election. The mine is
Deal and would phase out fossil fuel extraction in Australia.
projected to become one of Australia’s largest coal mines.
Proponents of the mine have highlighted the economic
Australia’s Emissions and Paris
importance of the mine and the employment that it will
Agreement
create in Queensland.
While Australia is responsible for an estimated 1% of
global emissions as a nation, it is the second highest emitter
U.S. Linkages
on a per capita basis, after Saudi Arabia. Australia was also
The increasing intensity of Australia’s fire season and
estimated to be the 15th largest emitter of carbon dioxide in
resulting political challenges have direct and indirect
2016. While Australia has committed to reduce its
impacts on the United States. For example, the United
emissions under the Paris Agreement by 26%-28% from
States, Australia, and New Zealand have exchanged
2005 levels by 2030, its emissions have reportedly
firefighting assistance for many years. In 2019, U.S.
increased since 2013, and the recent fires themselves also
Department of the Interior and U.S. Forest Service wildfire
significantly increased Australia’s carbon dioxide emissions
personnel were sent to Australia to assist with wildfire
over the past year. Critics of Australia’s existing pledge and
suppression. In addition, three American firefighters
policies assert that they are less ambitious than what
working for Coulson Aviation, a private contractor, were
Australia could achieve and do not represent a fair share of
killed when their air tanker crashed while on a fire fighting
the global effort to stabilize GHG in the atmosphere.
mission in Australia. In 2018, Australian and New Zealand
wildfire management personnel were sent to assist with
Figure 2. Australia’s Annual Mean Temperatures
wildfire suppression in California. As fire seasons lengthen
Differences from the Long-Term Average, 1910-2019
and grow in intensity, increased demand for this shared
capability may strain existing capabilities.
Australia’s experience with the political debate over costs
of mitigation vs. risk of continued climate change may help
inform Congress’ deliberations over how to address the
issue. While the risks and the drivers may be different,
intensifying wildfire seasons also are a U.S. concern. For
example, an April 2019 report from California Governor
Gavin Newsom’s strike force office on “Wildfires and
Climate Change” found that “climate change is a core
driver of heightened wildfire risk.”

Source: CRS, using data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
Bruce Vaughn, Specialist in Asian Affairs
Notes: Average is calculated from 1961-1990 data.
Susan G. Chesser, Senior Research Librarian

IF11453

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Australia: Fires Highlight Government’s Climate Chal enge

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