Diplomacy with North Korea: A Status Report

Diplomacy with North Korea: A Status Report

Updated February 3, 2022
Diplomacy with North Korea: A Status Report
Overview
communication. The pair exchanged more than 25 letters
Since the early 1990s, the United States periodically has
and held 3 meetings: in Singapore (June 2018); Hanoi
engaged in diplomacy with the Democratic People’s
(February 2019); and Panmunjom, on the inter-Korean
Republic of Korea (DPRK, North Korea’s official name). A
border (June 2019). U.S.-DPRK talks were
focus of these efforts has been the DPRK’s nuclear and
complemented—and at times facilitated—by increased
missile programs, which have emerged as threats to the
diplomacy between North and South Korea. Ultimately, the
U.S. homeland and U.S. East Asian allies , particularly
talks collapsed in 2019 due to differences over the scope
South Korea and Japan. Over the decades, the United States
and sequencing of DPRK denuclearization measures sought
and North Korea also have discussed normalizing relations,
by the United States in exchange for sanctions relief.
officially ending the Korean War after nearly 70 years, and
improving human rights conditions in North Korea. Since
President Joe Biden has indicated that he will pursue a more
2019, following the collapse of personal diplomacy
traditional diplomatic approach that emphasizes working-
between former President Donald Trump and North Korean
level talks and builds on earlier agreements with
leader Kim Jong-un, Pyongyang largely has ignored
Pyongyang. These include the 2018 joint declaration issued
attempts by the Trump and Biden Administrations to
in Singapore, in which Trump and Kim agreed to “commit
resume dialogue. Kim’s reluctance to engage also may be
to establish” new bilateral relations, build “a lasting and
due to his response to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-
stable peace regime,” and cooperate to recover the remains
19); North Korea has closed its borders since early 2020.
of thousands of U.S. troops unaccounted for from the
Korean War. Kim said he “commits to work toward
The Biden Administration says it is pursuing a “calibrated,
complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”
practical approach” that “is open to and will explore
diplomacy with North Korea” to eventually achieve the
If U.S.-DPRK talks restart, Members of Congress could
“complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” U.N.
debate the merits of the Biden Administration’s apparent
Security Council and U.S. sanctions bar nearly all of North
aim to push in the near term for incremental dismantlement
Korea’s exports and many of its imports, with exceptions
of North Korea’s nuclear program in step with gradual
for livelihood and humanitarian purposes. The Biden
sanctions relief, rather than trying for earlier and/or more
Administration’s approach appears to envision offering
extensive DPRK denuclearization concessions. The
partial sanctions relief in exchange for partial steps toward
possibility of sanctions relief is complicated by
denuclearization. Incremental sanctions relief could be
requirements in U.S. law that target not only weapons
difficult to accomplish without congressional support, given
programs but also human rights abuses, money laundering,
limitations enacted into law. U.S. officials say they have
weapons trade, international terrorism, and cyber
offered to meet with North Korea without preconditions,
operations. Members may also debate whether and how to
and that “the ball is in [Pyongyang’s] court.” Some analysts
prod the Administration to more effectively deliver
characterize the Administration’s approach as overly
humanitarian aid to the North Korean people despite
passive, offering little substantive content in its public
sanctions.
efforts to engage, instead emphasizing coordination with
Key Developments
Seoul to prevent U.S.-South Korea disagreements over
DPRK policy from surfacing.
North Korea’s Nuclear and Missile Programs
In the near term, many analysts worry Kim will abandon his
 Kim in 2018 pledged “permanent dismantlement” of
unilateral moratorium on nuclear tests and long-range
nuclear weapons production facilities in Yongbyon—an
ballistic missile tests. Pyongyang has resumed short- and
important nuclear site—“as the United States takes
medium-range ballistic missile tests—unleashing seven
corresponding measures.” The DPRK has partially shut
launches in early 2022—continues to enhance its military
down some parts of its nuclear testing and missile
capabilities, and conducts cyberattacks around the globe.
launch sites. As U.S.-DPRK talks stalled, promises to
allow inspections or completely dismantle sites went
Background
unfulfilled.
In 2018, following two years of a steadily escalating crisis
 Under Trump and Kim, the two countries did not agree
that threatened to erupt into military conflict, Trump and
on denuclearization steps, whether an agreement will
Kim defused tensions. Departing from the working-level
include limits on DPRK missiles, or the mechanisms for
bureaucratic approaches undertaken by previous U.S.
verifying any agreement, including inspection and
administrations, Trump and Kim’s personal diplomatic
monitoring.
efforts relied on summits and leader-to-leader
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Diplomacy w ith North Korea: A Status Report
Figure 1. Timeline of North Korean Ballistic Missile and Nuclear Tests,
U.N. Security Council Sanctions, and Kim Jong-un Summits, 2016-2022
 North Korea has not tested a nuclear weapon or test-
declaration formally ending the Korean War. South Korean
launched intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)
President Moon Jae-in argues that the United States and
since November 2017, notwithstanding Kim’s
South Korea pre-emptively issuing such a declaration will
December 2019 statement that “there is no ground” for
jump-start denuclearization talks.
North Korea to continue the moratoria because of the
 Biden and Moon have resolved many areas of friction in
breakdown in U.S.-DPRK talks. In January 2022, the
the U.S.-South Korea relationship and expanded the
United States designated five North Korean nationals for
scope of bilateral cooperation. Many observers say
sanctions related to weapons proliferation; the DPRK
Trump’s presidency damaged the alliance.
Politburo responded by issuing instructions to
 In 2018, the two Koreas held three summits, signed a
“examine” the ending of “trust-building measures,” a
military agreement, and opened a liaison office in the
likely reference to the moratoria.
DPRK. International and U.S. sanctions impede Seoul
 On January 30, 2022, North Korea test-launched the
from pursuing many other North/South projects.
Hwasong-12 (KN-17) intermediate-range ballistic
 Since the Hanoi summit, Pyongyang generally has
missile, last tested in September 2017.
rejected Seoul’s offers of aid, cooperation, and
 Since May 2019, North Korea has conducted over a
diplomatic engagement. In June 2020, North Korea
dozen short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) tests,
declared South Korea its “enemy,” severed all overt
advancing the reliability and precision of its missile
inter-Korean communication channels (some of which it
forces, and improving its ability to defeat regional
subsequently resumed), and blew up the liaison office.
missile defense systems.
 In 2018, North Korea repatriated remains of possible
 In January 2021, Pyongyang announced it aims to
U.S. Korea War-era troops, resulting in more than 40
develop tactical nuclear weapons, deploy multiple
identifications. No progress has been made since.
warheads on a single missile, and improve its ICBMs’
accuracy. Achieving these goals may require testing.
Economic Developments

Other Military Developments
Many countries are less robustly enforcing U.N.-
required sanctions than before the Trump-Kim meetings.
 A 2018 inter-Korean military confidence-building
China and Russia have blocked new sanctions
agreement required reducing military activity around the
designations at the U.N. and have proposed lifting
border and removing guard posts along the demilitarized
several sanctions categories. The U.N. has documented
zone (DMZ). South Korea met its obligations under the
North Korea’s growing success in evading sanctions.
agreement; North Korea has threatened to renege on the
 In 2020 and 2021, North Korea’s economy appears to
small steps it has taken.
have contracted significantly after the country closed its
 In June 2018, President Trump cancelled annual U.S.-
borders to fight COVID-19. Following storms in 2021
South Korea military exercises , calling them
that damaged domestic agriculture, the Kim government
“provocative.” Due in part to the pandemic, 2021
said the country was facing a “food crisis.”
exercises were scaled back; major in-person exercises
 Many observers have called for providing food,
have not resumed.
COVID-19-related, and other aid to North Korea. Kim
has rejected almost all offers of humanitarian aid.
Diplomatic Developments
 Pyongyang used the Trump-Kim diplomacy to break out Mark E. Manyin, Specialist in Asian Affairs
of the relative isolation the international community had
Emma Chanlett-Avery, Specialist in Asian Affairs
imposed following DPRK’s 2016 and 2017 nuclear and
Mary Beth D. Nikitin, Specialist in Nonproliferation
missile tests, particularly restoring relations with China.
Dianne E. Rennack, Specialist in Foreign Policy
 Although before the Hanoi summit, the United States and Legislation
DPRK discussed exchanging liaison offices, they have not
upgraded relations. There also has been no progress on
IF11415
building a “peace regime,” which could start with a
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Diplomacy w ith North Korea: A Status Report

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https://crsreports.congress.gov | IF11415 · VERSION 5 · UPDATED