Thailand: 2019 Elections, Issues, and Outlook for Congress

Thailand: 2019 Elections, Issues, and Outlook for Congress

December 12, 2019
Thailand: 2019 Elections, Issues, and Outlook for Congress
In March 2019, Thailand held its first elections since a 2014
to discourage civil unrest prior to the coronation of King
coup installed a military government. Through an electoral
Rama X in early May 2019.
system weighted in favor of the military and a process
fraught with allegations of irregularities, junta chief Prayuth
Thailand’s New Government
Chan-ocha and his military proxy party emerged victorious
On June 5, 2019, Prayuth was elected prime minister with
(although with a narrower margin than expected), with
the full support of a 250-seat Senate of military appointees
Prayuth remaining in the position of prime minister. The
and a coalition of neutral and pro-military parties in
U.S. Department of State certified in July 2019 that a
parliament. Prayuth and his cabinet of 35 ministers were
democratically elected government had taken office in
sworn into office on July 16, 2019, and the junta—officially
Thailand, allowing for the restoration of the military
known as the National Council for Peace and Order
assistance that had been proscribed since the 2014 coup.
(NCPO)—was subsequently dissolved. The cabinet
includes a number of key members from the NCPO, and
U.S. officials welcomed the March election and subsequent
also a network of politicians whose parties were pivotal for
reopening of military assistance as positive steps towards
the pro-military alliance to clinch its parliamentary
rekindling the bilateral ties that have frayed over more than
majority. The entrenchment of junta personnel in the Thai
a decade of political turmoil in Thailand. Many observers
government’s most powerful positions—Prayuth is also
note, however, that the new government was elected
defense minister, and three former military officers hold
through a system that many view as created by the junta to
deputy prime minister positions—has led many analysts to
preserve its rule. Given Thailand’s new political climate,
believe that Thailand’s new civilian government is a
some analysts have raised questions about how the United
continuation of military rule.
States will balance its democracy-promotion goals with its
strategic interests with Thailand and the region.
Potential Challenges for Prayuth
Election Day: Issues and Controversies
Since forming a new civilian government, Prayuth
encountered a number of obstacles, which led many experts
The March 24 elections were described by a number of
to question his effectiveness as prime minister and his
independent monitoring groups as “deeply flawed” and
ability to win greater legitimacy at home and abroad:
“heavily tilted” to favor the military junta. Thailand’s

military-drafted constitution gave structural advantages to
Lack of Absolute Power. As leader of a civilian
the military, and a series of draconian laws passed by the
government, Prayuth no longer enjoys the powers and
junta in 2016 allowed it to tighten censorship over media
protections that came along with “Article 44” under the
outlets and silence critics, purportedly in the interest of
military government, a controversial provision that
national security and public safety. Additionally, Thailand’s
granted absolute powers to the junta chief. With the loss
sole election management body, the Election Commission
of such powers, Prayuth’s military tendencies have
of Thailand (ECT), did not grant approvals for international
garnered increased scrutiny. His arguably quick-
observer groups in time to allow for adequate election
tempered disposition and visible frustration with
oversight. Some independent election monitoring groups,
criticism have led many experts to question his ability to
such as the Asian Network for Free Elections International
cooperate with lawmakers across the political spectrum.
Election Observation Mission (IEOM), were able to
 Unstable Coalition. Prayuth’s coalition in parliament
monitor and assess pre-election activities and election-day
commands a four-seat majority. His capacity to pass
operations at polling stations in every province.
legislation will therefore rely heavily on his ability to
keep his coalition intact. Prayuth could risk losing
“ANFREL saw a campaign environment which is
unsatisfied members in his camp to the opposition bloc,
heavily tilted to benefit the incumbent military junta
the Democratic Front. Comprised of a number of anti-
and the candidates that it supports.”
junta parties, the Democratic Front is headed by the
-The Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL)
populist Pheu Thai party, which was founded by exiled
former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
On election day, roughly 75% of Thailand’s 51 million
registered voters took to the polls. Although voting ran
Safeguarding Military Prerogatives
smoothly overall, reports of irregularities—such as
Prayuth’s policy agenda hews to a long-term national
incorrect ballot tallying and conflicting reports of voter
strategy passed by the junta in 2018, which serves as a
turnout—drew extensive criticism from Thailand’s pro-
blueprint to facilitate Thailand’s long-term development
democracy parties and international observers. The
and national security. The national strategy authorizes the
irregularities triggered a 45-day delay in releasing the
removal of any future government that fails to adhere to the
official results, which were announced on May 8. Some
outlined policies. The strategy additionally grants
experts assert that the delay was manufactured by the junta
insurrection immunity to generals who stage coups in the
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Thailand: 2019 Elections, Issues, and Outlook for Congress
interest of peacekeeping. While supporters claim that the
Figure 1. Thailand’s Regional Connectivity
law is necessary to maintain stability, others have raised
concerns that it grants sweeping powers to the military.
Some experts also have warned that the policy signals
challenges for Thailand’s human rights climate. Violent
attacks, forced disappearances, and killings targeting
political opposition activists—namely anti-junta journalists
and critics—have increased in frequency since 2018.
Economic Reform
Thailand’s economy—driven largely by tourism and
foreign direct investment—has lagged over the last several
years, with 2019 marking its slowest growth in over five
years. Ongoing Sino-U.S. trade frictions, combined with a
strengthening Thai currency, have further strained the
country’s economy. Much of Prayuth’s policy agenda is
geared towards revitalizing Thailand’s stagnating economy.
The junta promulgated the “Thailand 4.0” economic
initiative in 2016, a policy designed to turn Thailand into a
high-income nation within five years. While the plan seeks
to spur innovation and increase support for green
technologies, some analysts say that the policy faces both
short- and long-term challenges. In particular, Thai
companies could struggle to adopt advanced technologies
given the nation’s shortage of highly-skilled workers.
Regional Connectivity
Thailand’s geostrategic position offers many opportunities
for investment and infrastructure development along rail,
land, air, and shipping corridors, and has long attracted the

attention of external actors.
Source: CRS
In early 2018, Thailand approved a $45 billion initiative
The U.S.-Thai bilateral defense relationship has been one of
designed to optimize and accelerate infrastructure and
the strongest pillars of cooperation. The two countries have
economic growth along the country’s eastern seaboard, a
been treaty allies since signing the 1954 Manila Pact.
developing economic zone vital to the Thai economy
Military-to-military exercises and counterterrorism
known as the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC). Prayuth’s
cooperation remain robust areas of the bilateral relationship.
government has also acknowledged China’s Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI) as a potential avenue to attract investment
Thailand has historically been a significant purchaser of
through a number of economic corridors that span Thailand.
U.S. military equipment, and arms sales provide an avenue
for renewed engagement. In August 2019, the Commander
“Thailand plans to articulate our vision to drive
in Chief of the Royal Thai Army announced that the
forward the BRI among countries participating in the
military had begun purchasing American-made armored
BRI cooperation to achieve sustainable funding for
vehicles. The Thai military announced its plans to acquire a
projects, to promote public private partnerships and
total of 120 such vehicles by 2020.
to develop human resources.”
Thailand’s record on human rights and democracy has been
-Prayuth Chan-ocha
a long-standing concern for many human rights groups,
Outlook for Congress
U.S. officials, and some Members of Congress. In light of
Thailand’s
the continued crackdown on pro-democracy advocates and
period of prolonged political instability strained
civilians, Congress may wish to consider what role, if any,
the U.S.-Thai bilateral relationship. Under Section 508 of
the United States can play in supporting human rights
the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 (P.L. 87-195; 22 U.S.C.
protections in Thailand. The Asia Reassurance Initiative
2151 et seq.), certain categories of military assistance may
not be used to “
Act of 2018 (ARIA; P.L. 115-409), signed into law in
finance directly any assistance to any
December 2018, stresses the commitment of the United
country whose duly elected head of government is deposed
States to promote “human rights and respect for democratic
by military coup or decree,” and as a result the United
values” in countries throughout the Indo-Pacific region.
States suspended most military assistance after the coup.
The State Department’s certification of Thailand’s return to
democracy has opened the way for the full resumption of
Kirt Smith, Research Assistant
ties. Now the United States faces the challenge of balancing
Emma Chanlett-Avery, Specialist in Asian Affairs
its pursuit of strategic interests with promoting U.S. values.
Ben Dolven, Specialist in Asian Affairs
Some analysts and experts believe that the Thai military’s
dominant role in politics will pose challenges for promoting
IF11390
democratic practices in Thailand in the near term.
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Thailand: 2019 Elections, Issues, and Outlook for Congress

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