Venezuela: International Efforts to Resolve the Political Crisis

Venezuela: International Efforts to Resolve the Political Crisis

Updated May 26, 2021
Venezuela: International Efforts to Resolve the Political Crisis
Background
serve some of the roughly 5.6 million Venezuelans who had
Venezuela, still under the authoritarian rule of Nicolás
left the country as of May 2021 and their host communities.
Maduro, is mired in a deep economic and humanitarian
An independent fact-finding mission of the Office of the
crisis worsened by the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-
U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights has
19) pandemic. Maduro—narrowly elected in 2013 after the
documented state human rights abuses against civilians that
death of Hugo Chávez (president, 1999-2013)—and the
it describes as amounting to “crimes against humanity.”
United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) took de facto
control of the National Assembly, the last independent
Organization of American States
branch of government, in January 2021. Maduro has
The Organization of American States (OAS), a regional
resisted U.S. and international pressure to step down.
multilateral organization that includes all 35 independent
Meanwhile, international support for opposition leader Juan
countries of the Western Hemisphere (Cuba currently does
Guaidó, the former National Assembly president once
not participate), has focused attention on Venezuela’s
regarded as interim president by the United States and
political crisis. Since 2016, OAS Secretary-General Luis
nearly 60 countries, appears to have stagnated.
Almagro has issued reports on Venezuela, convened special
sessions of the Permanent Council to discuss regional
Maduro has consolidated political control over Venezuela,
responses to the crisis, and spoken out against Maduro. In
but the country’s economy and social conditions continue to
2017, Maduro denounced the OAS for meddling in his
deteriorate. Since April 2021, the Maduro government has
country’s domestic affairs and began a two-year process to
made gestures that some observers say demonstrate a
withdraw from the organization.
willingness to negotiate with the opposition in exchange for
relief from U.S. sanctions. Maduro allowed the World Food
The OAS requires 18 votes to pass a resolution of the
Program to begin operating, released six U.S.-Venezuelan
Permanent Council. In January 2019, 19 of 34 member
oil executives to house arrest, and backed the legislature’s
states approved a resolution refusing to recognize the
selection of an electoral commission with two of five
legitimacy of Maduro’s second term and urging all member
rectors from the opposition. On May 11, 2021, Guaidó
states to adopt measures to facilitate the prompt restoration
called for, and Maduro appeared to agree to, resuming
of democratic order in Venezuela. After Maduro withdrew
Norway-led negotiations suspended in September 2019.
his OAS ambassador, the Permanent Council welcomed the
Guaidó seeks foreign aid and COVID-19 vaccines, as well
Venezuelan National Assembly’s permanent representative
as a broad electoral accord leading to free and fair elections.
to the OAS in April 2019. The United States and 11 other
OAS member states that are parties to the Inter-American
The international community remains divided over how to
Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance have imposed targeted
respond to the political crisis in Venezuela. Although the
sanctions and travel bans on Maduro government officials.
United States still recognizes Guaidó as interim president,
many European Union (EU) member states and Western
Some observers praise Almagro’s activism on Venezuela;
Hemisphere countries do not. Biden Administration
others assert he has sided too closely with the opposition
officials have backed Guaidó’s call for negotiations but
and is unlikely to help broker a diplomatic solution to the
remain wary of Maduro’s intentions and appear unlikely to
crisis. The OAS General Secretariat praised the interim
lift U.S. sanctions in the short term. EU member states
government’s recent negotiation initiative but dismissed the
strongly support a resumption in negotiations. Russia,
“influence in these [and past] negotiations of
China, and Cuba have remained silent on the possible
collaborationist actors, both from inside and outside the
resumption in negotiations. Without pressure to make
[Maduro] dictatorship.”
concessions from Maduro’s external backers and unity in
the opposition, negotiations could again prove unsuccessful.
Lima Group
In mid-2017, efforts to reach consensus on an OAS
United Nations
response to the crisis in Venezuela appeared to stall. On
In 2019-2020, the U.N. Security Council discussed the
August 8, 2017, 12 Western Hemisphere countries signed
situation in Venezuela, but divisions among U.N. members
the Lima Accord, which rejected the rupture of democracy
blocked resolutions in response to the crisis. Russia and, to
and systemic human rights violations in Venezuela;
a lesser extent, China support Maduro; the United States
signatory countries included Argentina, Brazil, Canada,
supports Guaidó. Despite that polarization, U.N. agencies
Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras,
are increasing humanitarian relief in Venezuela after
Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, and Peru. In 2018, Guyana and
securing approval in April 2019 from Maduro and Guaidó.
St. Lucia joined the Lima Group, which did not recognize
The U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees and the
Maduro’s May 2018 reelection.
International Organization for Migration are coordinating to
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Venezuela: International Efforts to Resolve the Political Crisis
On January 23, 2019, and in subsequent statements, 11
U.S. sanctions were imposed on his government.
members of the Lima Group recognized the Guaidó
Norwegian officials have maintained communication with
government and pledged to support a democratic transition
Maduro and opposition leaders, even during the pandemic.
in Venezuela. On February 4, 2019, the Guaidó government
joined the Lima Group and signed its statement calling for a
On May 11, 2021, Guaidó issued a call for the opposition to
peaceful transition in Venezuela. Although Mexico and
unite behind a “national salvation agreement,” possibly
Argentina have left the Lima Group, El Salvador and
brokered by Norway. He seeks (1) an electoral accord, (2) a
Ecuador have joined the group as observers.
plan to distribute COVID-19 vaccines and foreign aid, (3)
an agreement on political participation and the release of
The Lima Group has denounced human rights violations by
political prisoners, and (4) international support for lifting
the Maduro government but also has opposed U.S. or
sanctions to incentivize the Maduro government. Maduro
regional military intervention. On January 5, 2021, 13 Lima
expressed a willingness to negotiate, but his government
Group countries issued a declaration that the group does not
subsequently raided an independent newspaper and cracked
recognize the legitimacy of the National Assembly seated in
down on foreign-funded civil society groups, leading some
January 2021. Instead, it “recognizes the existence of a
to question his sincerity.
Delegated Commission headed by its legitimate board of
directors, established by the National Assembly, presided
Implications for U.S. Policy
by Juan Guaidó.” The Lima Group has yet to make a
Congress has closely followed developments in Venezuela,
statement regarding negotiations.
U.S. policy responses, and international efforts to broker a
solution to the crisis.
European Union
In 2017, the EU adopted an arms embargo against
Although U.S. policy toward Venezuela generally has
Venezuela; in 2018, it began to impose targeted sanctions
received broad international support, some U.S. actions
on Maduro officials . The EU has opposed broad economic
have prompted concern among partners in addressing the
sanctions, military intervention, and “any form of violence”
crisis; such actions have included threats of military action
in the country. Instead, the EU has backed efforts by the
in 2019, stronger sanctions on Cuba (an EU trade partner)
International Contact Group (ICG) and Norwegian
related to its support for Maduro, and sanctions on
diplomats to broker a diplomatic solution to the crisis. In
Venezuela’s state oil company and government. Some
mid-2020, the EU backed former presidential candidate
observers hoped the Biden Administration would be willing
Henrique Capriles’s efforts to seek better conditions and a
to lift certain sanctions that may have exacerbated the
postponement of the December legislative elections rather
humanitarian crisis, such as a 2020 prohibition on oil-for-
than the preemptive boycott that Guaidó and the U.S.
diesel swaps. Some Members of Congress support all
government had declared. By January 2021, the EU
current U.S. sanctions, but others have concerns about the
Parliament and most member states began referring to
humanitarian effects of sanctions discussed in a February
Guaidó as a “privileged interlocutor” rather than “interim
2021 Government Accountability Office report.
president.” The EU backs a resumption in negotiations.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other U.S. officials
International Contact Group
have pledged to implement a multilateral policy on
The EU-backed ICG, now composed of several European
Venezuela and are reviewing current sanctions. They have
countries (France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands,
also stated that they are in no rush to lift sanctions,
Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom) and
including on diesel swaps. Should negotiations progress,
Latin American countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Costa
the EU, and potentially Guaidó, could advocate for a
Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Panama, and
revised U.S. sanctions policy.
Uruguay) first convened in February 2019. It aimed to
“establish necessary guarantees” for free, transparent
International perspectives and negotiations also may
presidential elections and to hasten the delivery of
influence oversight of the more than $1 billion in U.S.
humanitarian aid to Venezuela through dialogue. ICG
humanitarian assistance dedicated to support Venezuelans
supporters maintain the “necessary guarantees” include
in the country and the region. For example, Guaidó
naming a new electoral council, releasing political
reportedly has sought Astra-Zeneca vaccines from the
prisoners, and ending bans on parties and candidates. The
United States for Venezuela, but Maduro has thus far
ICG has met several times, including with Lima Group
opposed accepting that type of vaccine. Negotiations may
representatives; sent political missions to Caracas; and
inform decisions about the amounts and types of U.S. funds
supported the Norway-led dialogue process.
most needed to support entities working in Venezuela.
Dialogue Effort Led by Norway
Under certain circumstances, such funds might support
international election observers, increased humanitarian
In May 2019, the Norwegian government confirmed it had
assistance, or a potential International Monetary Fund
been facilitating talks between negotiating teams for
package. See also CRS In Focus IF10230, Venezuela:
Maduro and Guaidó. The negotiations’ goal was to
Political Crisis and U.S. Policy; CRS In Focus IF10715,
establish conditions for free and fair elections. Points of
Venezuela: Overview of U.S. Sanctions; CRS In Focus
contention included whether Maduro could remain in office
IF11029, The Venezuela Regional Humanitarian Crisis and
during the convening of elections and whether he could run
COVID-19 and CRS Report R44841, Venezuela:
again. Skeptics asserted that, as in the past, Maduro was
Back ground and U.S. Relations.
using negotiations as a delaying tactic. In August 2019,
Maduro ended participation in the negotiations after new
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Venezuela: International Efforts to Resolve the Political Crisis

IF11216
Clare Ribando Seelke, Specialist in Latin American
Affairs

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