U.S. Trade: Recent Trends and Developments

U.S. Trade: Recent Trends and Developments

Updated April 20, 2020
U.S. Trade: Recent Trends and Developments
Background
Table 1. U.S. Trade in 2019
In recent years, Congress has demonstrated significant
interest in U.S. and international trade trends as part of its
U.S.$
% Change

efforts to examine U.S. trade policy and key U.S. trading
(billions)
from 2018*
relationships. In particular, demand for comparative
Total Exports
2,498.0
-0.1
analysis of bilateral trade flows and balances has
heightened as the Trump Administration takes actions with
Exports of Goods
1,652.8
-1.3
the intention of reducing U.S. bilateral trade deficits,
Exports of Services
845.2
2.2
enforcing U.S. trade laws and agreements, and promoting
what it considers to be “free,” “fair,” and “reciprocal” trade.
Total Imports
3,114.5
-0.5
The role of Congress in trade policy stems from a number
Imports of Goods
2,519.0
-1.7
of overlapping responsibilities, including its constitutional
authority over regulating commerce with foreign countries
Imports of Services
595.4
5.0
and broad oversight responsibility over the performance of
Total Balance (Deficit)
-616.4
-1.8
the economy. The changing dynamics and composition of
U.S. trade may be important to Members, because they can
Balance on Goods (Deficit)
-866.2
-2.4
affect the overall health of the U.S. economy, the success of
U.S. workers and firms, and the U.S. standard of living.
Balance on Services (Surplus)
249.8
-3.8
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (April 20, 2020).
U.S. Trade in Goods
Note: * not adjusted for inflation.
U.S. merchandise exports totaled $1.7 trillion in 2019, a
U.S. merchandise exports to most major trading partners
1.3% ($21.5 billion) decrease from the 2018 level (Table
increased from 2018 to 2019. The largest was a $15.4
1). The value of U.S. merchandise imports was $2.5 trillion
billion (6.1%) increase in U.S. exports to the EU27. It was
over the same period, down 1.7% ($42.6 billion) from
followed by a $3.0 billion increase in exports to the UK (up
2018. U.S. imports decreased more than U.S. exports,
4.4%) and a $968.0 million increase to India (up 2.9%).
leading to a decrease of $21.1 billion (2.4%) in the U.S.
U.S. exports to China, Mexico, and Canada decreased
merchandise trade deficit to $866.2 billion.
11.3%, 3.4%, and 2.4%, respectively.
Top U.S. export categories in 2019 included machinery
U.S. merchandise imports from all top trading partners—
($379.1 billion), transportation ($274.9 billion), chemical,
except China—increased in 2019. The largest increases in
plastics, and leather ($256.3 billion), and minerals ($209.7
imports were $25.2 billion (5.9%) from the EU27, $11.9
billion). U.S. exports of art and antiques, wood products,
billion (3.4%) from Mexico, and $8.5 billion (18.6%) from
and base metals were down 11.0%, 9.8%, and 7.4%
Taiwan. U.S. imports from China decreased 16.2% ($87.7
respectively, from the 2018 level. In terms of U.S. imports,
billion), leading to a 17.7% ($74.1 billion) decrease in the
the top import categories were also machinery ($717.5
U.S.-China merchandise trade deficit.
billion), transportation ($344.3 billion), chemicals, plastics,
and leather ($342.1), and minerals ($208.2 billion). U.S.
U.S. Trade in Services
imports of minerals decreased 13.2% from 2018.
In 2019, U.S. exports of services increased 2.2% ($18.2
Trade in Goods with Leading Partners
billion), from $827.0 billion to $845.2 billion, while U.S.
In 2019, the European Union (EU27)—as a single entity
services imports grew 5.0% ($28.1 billion), from $567.3
and excluding the United Kingdom (UK)—was the United
billion to $595.4 billion. The U.S. surplus in services trade
States’ top trading partner in terms of two-way (exports
decreased 3.8% ($9.8 billion) to $249.8 billion.
plus imports) merchandise trade, followed by Mexico,
Trade in Services with Leading Partners
Canada, and China. Ranked by exports, Canada was the
The EU27 was the United States’ top trading partner in
leading market for U.S. exports, which totaled $293.3
terms of two-way (exports plus imports) services trade in
billion (17.7% of all U.S. exports). The EU27 was the
2019, while the largest single-country services trading
second-largest export market ($268.9 billion worth of U.S.
partners were the UK, Canada, Japan, and China. Since
exports or 16.3%), followed by Mexico and China. In terms
2000, the share of U.S. services trade with partners like the
of imports, the EU27 was the leading source of U.S.
UK, Canada, and Japan has decreased, while that of China
imports ($453.6 billion or 18.01% of all U.S. imports),
and India, for example, has grown dramatically. The EU27
followed by the China ($452.7 billion or 18.0%), Mexico,
was the largest export market for U.S. services and the
and Canada. The United States had merchandise trade
largest foreign supplier of U.S. services imports in 2019. It
deficits with most of its major partners in 2019, including
accounted for $190.9 billion (22.6%) of total U.S. services
with China ($345.5 billion), the EU27 ($184.6 billion),
exports and for $147.5 billion (24.8%) of total U.S. services
Mexico ($107.6 billion), and Japan ($70.2 billion).
imports. After the EU27, the top markets for U.S. services
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U.S. Trade: Recent Trends and Developments
exports were the UK, Canada, China, and Japan, while the
Table 2. U.S. Trade in Goods and Services in 2019
top sources of U.S. services imports were the UK, Canada,
(in billions of U.S. dollars)
Japan, and India. In 2019, the United States maintained a
Total
services trade surplus with every major services trading

Trade
Exports
Imports
Balance
partner except India ($3.9 billion deficit).
European Union*
1,060.9
459.8
601.1
-141.3
U.S. services exports to most leading trading partners
Germany
258.5
96.1
162.4
-66.2
increased in 2019. Exports declined to China, down $474.0
million or 0.8%. The largest increase was $11.4 billion
France
136.5
59.6
77.0
-17.4
(6.3%) to the EU27, followed by $3.5 billion (7.7%) to
Canada
721.3
358.0
363.3
-5.3
Japan and $1.2 billion (4.9%) to India.
Mexico
682.5
290.7
391.8
-101.1
U.S. services imports from all but one of the major trading
partners increased in 2019. The largest increases in imports
China
635.3
163.8
471.4
-307.6
were from the EU27 ($9.6 billion), Canada ($1.7 billion),
Japan
305.5
124.0
181.5
-57.5
the UK ($1.6 billion), and Mexico ($1.6 billion). Imports
from Taiwan fell 2.6% ($217 million).
United Kingdom
270.4
144.3
126.1
18.2
U.S. Trade in Goods and Services
South Korea
172.0
81.0
90.9
-9.9
In 2019, U.S. exports of goods and services totaled $2.5
India
149.0
61.0
88.1
-27.1
trillion, while imports totaled $3.1 trillion, resulting in an
overall deficit of $616.4 billion, down 1.8% from 2018 and
Taiwan
104.7
42.3
62.4
-20.1
19.1% from the all-time high level registered in 2006
Rest of the World
1,510.8
773.0
737.8
35.2
($761.7 billion). The deficit in goods decreased 2.4% to
$866.2 billion while the surplus in services decreased 3.8%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (April 20, 2020).
to $249.8 billion (Figure 1).
Note: * includes trade with al 27 member states combined.
Figure 1. U.S. Trade Balance
Limitations of Trade Data
(in billions of current U.S. dollars)
The growth in global production chains, intrafirm trade, and
trade in intermediate goods means that traditional
accounting methods may distort trade data and not fully
reflect the source of resources used in producing goods and
services. This makes it increasingly difficult to understand
and interpret the implications of trade data trends for the
U.S. economy. For example, conventional data that often
drive policy discussions (and used here) may underestimate
trade in services, as the data are not measured on a value-
added basis and do not attribute any portion of the traded
value of manufactured and agricultural products to services
inputs. Intermediate services, such as transportation and
distribution, research and development, and design and
engineering are embedded within a value chain as inputs
and thus are often not visible in the data.
Issues for Congress
The changes in U.S. trade patterns pose both opportunities
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (April 20, 2020).
and challenges for the United States. These developments
Trade in Goods and Services with Leading Partners
have intensified congressional interest in U.S. trade policy
The EU27 was the United States’ largest market for U.S.
and demand for information and analysis of bilateral U.S.
goods and services exports in 2019, accounting for $459.8
trade flows. In the coming months, Members of Congress
billion (18.4%) of total U.S. exports, as well as the leading
may face issues such as shaping U.S. trade policy to reflect
source of U.S. imports, which totaled $601.1 billion (19.3%
this changing composition of trade, enhancing the
of total U.S. imports) (Table 2). Canada was the second-
competitive position of U.S. firms and workers, and
largest U.S. export market, with $358.0 billion worth of
addressing tensions, trade barriers, and issues raised by the
U.S. exports (14.3% of total U.S. exports), and the fourth-
growing role of emerging economies in the global
largest source of U.S. imports, which totaled $363.3
economy. In addition, questions affecting U.S. trade trends
billion(11.7%). China’s share in U.S. trade has increased
could arise if the Trump Administration negotiates new
dramatically over the past few decades. In 2000, it
trade agreements. Members might weigh potential costs and
accounted for 2.0% of total U.S. exports and 7.1% of total
benefits to their constituents—and to the U.S. economy as a
U.S. imports. While down from 2018, China’s share in
whole—as they debate and potentially ratify these
2019 stood at 6.6% of total U.S. exports and 15.1% of total
agreements.
U.S. imports.
Andres B. Schwarzenberg, Analyst in International Trade
and Finance
IF11189
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U.S. Trade: Recent Trends and Developments

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