Ukraine’s Presidential Election: A Preview

Ukraine’s Presidential Election: A Preview

Updated February 14, 2019
Ukraine’s Presidential Election: A Preview
On March 31, 2019, Ukraine is scheduled to hold its first
popular support as a defender of Ukraine’s national identity
presidential election since 2014, the year Russia began to
and interests.
occupy Ukraine’s Crimea region and launched a separatist
conflict in eastern Ukraine. Because Ukraine’s president
Poroshenko portrays himself first as Ukraine’s wartime
shares executive power with a prime minister, the election’s
commander in chief, who has built up Ukraine’s military
full political significance will depend on October 2019
forces and is standing firm against Russian aggression. He
parliamentary elections. The outcome of the presidential
also has cultivated an image as a defender of Ukrainian
election, however, is likely to influence voter preferences in
identity, including via legislation that prioritizes the use of
parliamentary elections.
Ukrainian language in education, media, and government.
Finally, he seeks credit for the recent recognition by the
The presidential election is a competitive one. The top three
Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople of an
candidates are incumbent President Petro Poroshenko,
independent (autocephalous) Ukrainian Orthodox Church,
former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, and well-known
fully separate from the Russian Orthodox Church.
actor-comedian Volodymyr (or Vladimir) Zelensky. For
months, Tymoshenko was the frontrunner in most election
Many observers contend that Poroshenko’s record on
polls, but some recent polls have Zelensky in the lead.
economic and governance reform is mixed, however. Some
Poroshenko is running third in most polls, although many
consider Poroshenko’s decline in popularity to be due in
observers consider the incumbent president to be a viable
part to the government’s failure to meet the reform
contender for a runoff election. Most observers believe it is
expectations set by Ukraine’s 2014 Revolution of Dignity
unlikely any candidate will receive a majority of votes in
(also known as the Euromaidan) and his inability to restore
the March 31 election, leading to a second round in April.
the country’s economic health after almost five years of
conflict. Some observers have expressed concern that the
Major themes surrounding the election include Ukraine’s
government will misuse official resources (such as the
reform course, the fight against corruption, defense against
security apparatus, state employees, and financial
Russian aggression, conflict resolution, and the
resources) to benefit Poroshenko’s campaign.
development of Ukraine’s national and spiritual identity. As
in 2014, elections are unable to be held in Russian-occupied
Poroshenko initially was elected president in May 2014,
Crimea and several districts in eastern Ukraine that the
after Russia annexed Crimea and as the conflict in eastern
government does not control.
Ukraine began to unfold. He won 55% of the popular vote.
His popularity was based on his promises to move Ukraine
The United States and European allies support Ukraine’s
closer to the West, fight corruption, and tamp down the
continued reform efforts, effective defense, territorial
separatist conflict that had emerged in eastern Ukraine.
integrity, and resolution of the conflict. Since the onset of
conflict, Congress has strongly supported Ukraine’s
Before becoming president, Poroshenko was a wealthy
national security and economic development, including
businessman, member of parliament, and supporter of the
through the Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014 (22
2014 protests that led to the removal of Ukraine’s previous
U.S.C. 8921). For more on U.S.-Ukraine relations, see CRS
president, Viktor Yanukovych. Poroshenko’s holdings
Report R45008, Ukraine: Background and U.S. Policy.
include the Roshen confectionary company and the Channel
Five television station. Poroshenko held political office
Top Candidates
under Ukraine’s two previous presidents, including as
foreign minister (2009-2010) and minister of trade and
President Petro Poroshenko
economic development (2011-2012).
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, 53, is campaigning
for a second term. It is uncertain if he will succeed. Recent
Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko
polls suggest he is in third place, with the support of around
Former prime minister and member of parliament Yulia
12%-13% of likely voters. If undecided voters tilt toward
Tymoshenko, 58, positions herself like Poroshenko as a
Poroshenko in sufficient numbers, however, the prospects
pro-Western politician. Her platform, “A New Course for
for his reelection could be greater than polls suggest.
Ukraine: New Opportunities for Everyone,” is mainly a
populist one. In recent polls, Tymoshenko garnered the
Poroshenko supports Ukraine’s integration with the
support of around 12%-16% of likely voters.
European Union (EU) and NATO, but he is campaigning
under a more nationalist slogan of “Army! Language!
Tymoshenko and her party, Fatherland (Batkivshchyna),
Faith!” The slogan reflects Poroshenko’s efforts to gain
have been critical of government-led economic reforms,
including pension reform, increased gas prices, and land
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Ukraine’s Presidential Election: A Preview
sales, that are supported by the International Monetary
has accused the government of supporting the candidacy of
Fund (IMF), the EU, and the United States. Some observers
a similarly named parliamentarian, Yuriy Tymoshenko, in
anticipate that she would adjust her position on these issues
an attempt to confuse a portion of her electorate.
if she were to become president.
Table 1. Leading Presidential Candidates
Tymoshenko served as Ukraine’s prime minister in 2005
(by opinion poll ranking)
and 2007-2010. She ran for president in 2010 but lost 49%-
45% to Yanukovych. She again ran for president in 2014
Recent Polling
and came in second place, with 13% of the vote. She also
(among likely
has served as deputy prime minister for energy and coal
Name
Party
voters)
mining (1999-2001).
Volodymyr
Servant of the
16%-17%
In 2011, Yanukovych’s government imprisoned
Zelensky
People
Tymoshenko on what many observers considered to be
Yulia Tymoshenko
Fatherland
12%-16%
politically motivated charges. She was convicted on abuse
of power charges, ostensibly related to a gas deal she made
Petro Poroshenko
Petro Poroshenko
12%-13%
with Russia in 2009, and sentenced to seven years in prison.
(incumbent)
Bloc “Solidarity”
Tymoshenko’s release from prison was a key element of
Yuriy Boyko
Opposition
7%-9%
negotiations between the EU and the Yanukovych
Platform – For Life
government on an EU-Ukraine Association Agreement.
After Yanukovych was removed from power in 2014,
Anatoliy Hrytsenko
Civil Position
6%-7%
Tymoshenko was released from prison.
Oleh Lyashko
Radical Party
5%-6%
Actor-Comedian Volodymyr (Vladimir) Zelensky
Undecided
—
14%-22%
Political novice Volodymyr Zelensky, 41, is polling first in
Sources: Polling results from Rating Group Ukraine, January 16-24,
recent polls, with support of around 16%-17% among likely
2019; SOCIS Center, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS),
voters. Zelensky is a well-known comedic actor and
and the Razumkov Center, January 16-29, 2019; and Rating Group
founder and art director of the Kvartal 95 production studio.
Ukraine, Social Monitoring Center, and Info Sapiens, January 19-30,
2019.
Observers consider Zelensky’s political appeal to stem in
Notes: The list of potential candidates includes those who have
part from his starring role in the popular television show
received at least 5% support in recent polls.
Servant of the People (Sluha Narodu). In the show,
Zelensky plays a schoolteacher who is unexpectedly elected
Only three other candidates received more than 5% support
president of Ukraine after a video of him delivering an anti-
in recent polls. Of these, Yuriy Boyko, 60, is the leading
corruption rant goes viral.
candidate among the elites of eastern Ukraine, who
typically are referred to as “pro-Russian” (a label that often
Zelensky is from the city of Kryvyi Rih in the
refers to economic, not ideological, interests). Boyko was a
Dnipropetrovsk region, north of Crimea, and could appeal
member of ex-president Yanukovych’s Party of Regions
to Russian-speaking Ukrainians (among others) who reject
before 2014. Boyko has a long history in Ukraine’s energy
the alleged corruption or pro-Russian sentiments of
industry, an economic sector many observers consider to
politicians previously close to ex-president Yanukovych.
have been highly corrupt under past administrations. Boyko
Some observers note that even if Zelensky fails to enter a
also is linked to Viktor Medvedchuk, who is considered one
runoff, his campaign could boost the prospects of his new
of Ukraine’s most pro-Russian political figures.
political party, Servant of the People (Sluha Narodu), in
Anatoliy Hrytsenko, 61, is characterized by many as the
October 2019 parliamentary elections.
leading “pro-Western” alternative to Poroshenko and
Tymoshenko. Hrytsenko is a former minister of defense
Many observers believe Zelensky is supported by wealthy
(2005-2007) who has twice run for president. Hrytsenko is
businessperson Ihor Kolomoysky, who reportedly controls
campaigning on a platform of anti-corruption, anti-
Ukraine’s most popular television station, 1+1, which airs
oligarchy, and Western integration, and he supports
Zelensky’s shows. Poroshenko appointed Kolomoysky
Ukraine’s return to a strong presidential system. Some
governor of the Dnipropetrovsk region in 2014. He served
observers have questioned Hrytsenko’s pro-Western
in the post for a year, but tensions arose between the two
commitment, however, based on comments appearing to
over control of pipeline company UkrTransNafta and,
signify approval of “enlightened authoritarianism.”
subsequently, the nationalization of PrivatBank, Ukraine’s
Oleh Lyashko, 46, is considered by many to be a
largest commercial bank, which Kolomoysky previously
nationalist-populist politician akin to Russia’s Vladimir
controlled.
Zhirinovsky. In parliament, Lyashko rails against
Other Candidates
corruption, the EU, the IMF, and Western-supported
Ukraine’s Central Election Commission
nongovernmental organizations. Many observers believe
approved the
Lyashko is supported by Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine’s richest
registration of 44 candidates to compete in the presidential
person and a member of the eastern Ukrainian elite.
election. Some observers believe the government
encouraged the entry of a large number of candidates to
Cory Welt, Analyst in European Affairs
help divide the opposition vote. Tymoshenko, in particular,
IF11108
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Ukraine’s Presidential Election: A Preview

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