The Asia Pacific: Challenges and Opportunities for U.S. Policy

The Asia Pacific: Challenges and Opportunities for U.S. Policy

December 14, 2018
The Asia Pacific: Challenges and Opportunities for U.S. Policy
The Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)
 Asia includes five nations with nuclear weapons
Congress has the ability to shape the United States’
arsenals: China and Russia, both permanent members of
approach to Asia, where economic, security, and political
the United Nations Security Council; India and Pakistan,
trends are challenging U.S. leadership and interests. The
which are bitter rivals; and North Korea.
Trump Administration has promoted a strategy of a “Free
 Asian nations, including U.S. allies and partners, are
and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) that frames U.S. policy in
involved in major territorial disputes with China and
the region as a multi-faceted competition against China.
among themselves in the South China Sea and East
China in recent years has expanded its presence in its broad
China Sea, as well as along the India-China and India-
maritime periphery while pursuing an ambitious plan to
Pakistan borders. Another potential flashpoint is
build economic corridors across the Eurasian continent.
Taiwan, which Beijing claims as part of China.
Under the FOIP strategy, the Administration has
emphasized strategic relations with countries that share its
Emerging Trends
concerns about China’s growing influence, including Japan,
Australia, and India. The Administration also has promoted
 The balance of economic power in the region continues
several infrastructure initiatives as alternatives to Chinese-
to shift. By 2030, many economists predict that China
funded projects, which it has described as “predatory” and
will overtake the United States to become the world’s
“debt traps.”
largest economy in nominal terms. By the same date,
some predict that India might displace Japan as the third
Notwithstanding the FOIP policy, President Trump’s
largest. The economic and, to a lesser extent, military
overall foreign policy approach has deepened many Asian
rise of India exacerbates national security fears in
leaders’ questions about the credibility of the U.S.
Pakistan and is being monitored warily in Beijing.
commitment to the region. In particular, governments have
expressed concern about President Trump’s 2017
 China is increasingly asserting influence through
withdrawal from the proposed 12-nation Trans-Pacific
regional economic and financial initiatives. It is
championing its “Belt and Road initiative” (BRI), an
Partnership (TPP) trade agreement; his application of
unilateral tariffs against trading partners including China,
effort to boost infrastructure development and economic
Japan, and South Korea; his comments and policy moves
connectivity—and expand China’s influence—among
that may undermine U.S. alliances; and his tendency to
more than 65 countries on three continents. The most
prominent BRI project, the China-Pakistan Economic
change policy positions.
Corridor, could comprise up to $62 billion in
The tools Congress may use to influence U.S. policy in
investment. China is also promoting the Regional
Asia include oversight through hearings and investigations;
Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a
the Senate confirmation process; the authorizing and
proposed regional trade agreement that does not include
appropriations processes; other legislative directives and
the United States. In 2015, China launched a new
restrictions; resolutions and policy statements; inspectors
development bank, the Asia Infrastructure Investment
general; reporting requirements; program evaluation; and
Bank (AIIB); membership includes 14 G-20 members.
informal advice and pressure.
 In 2016 and 2017, North Korea conducted scores of
missile tests and three nuclear weapons tests,
The Asia Pacific: Key Facts
demonstrating it may be close if not already capable of
 Five U.S. treaty allies are in the Asia Pacific: Australia,
striking the continental United States with a nuclear-
Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand. Over
armed ballistic missile. After a period of hostile
74,000 U.S. troops are deployed in the region.
statements in 2017, the Trump Administration in 2018
has pursued a diplomatic solution to denuclearize North
 In 2017, four Asian economies were among the top 10
Korea. A U.S.-North Korea summit, as well as three
U.S. trading partners: China (no. 1), Japan (no. 4), South
inter-Korean summits, have eased tensions and North
Korea (no. 6), India (no. 9). China was the world’s
Korean leader Kim Jong-un has publicly stated that he
fastest growing economy in 2017, while India’s growth
will “work toward complete denuclearization of the
rate is expected to outpace China’s in 2018 and 2019.
Korean Peninsula,” but progress toward resolution has

remained elusive. Meanwhile, U.S. alliances with South
Asia is home to the United States’ closest competitor in
economic size and military strength, China; the world’s
Korea and Japan face strains as U.S. priorities diverge
most populous democracy, India; and the world’s most
from Seoul’s and Tokyo’s top concerns.
populous Muslim-majority nation and third-most
 Military spending in the region is rising, with China
populous democracy, Indonesia.
seeking greater power projection capabilities and other
nations seeking to enhance their security amid questions
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The Asia Pacific: Challenges and Opportunities for U.S. Policy
about the future U.S. role in the region. In 2017, China
U.S. Alliances
was the world’s second-largest defense spender after the
The Trump Administration’s 2017 National Security
United States, and India was number five. Several
Strategy reaffirms the centrality and vitality of U.S.
Southeast Asian nations have increased defense budgets.
alliances in Asia, and public statements by heads of state

underscore the strength of the bilateral agreements.
Rivalry between China and India appears to be
However, observers point to gaps in coordination and
intensifying, especially in the Indian Ocean region,
contentious negotiations over burden-sharing as signs of
raising the possibility of greater regional instability. The
world’s two most populous states also share the world’s
emerging divisions among the allies. Trump’s unilateral
cancellation of major U.S.-South Korean exercises has
longest disputed land border and have divergent views
reduced U.S.-South Korean security cooperation, and Japan
on Pakistan and Tibet.
has expressed anxiety that its core national interests—
 Following the U.S. withdrawal from the proposed TPP,
including trade priorities and doubts about North Korea—
Asian countries have been negotiating new regional
are being marginalized by U.S. policy.
trade agreements, including RCEP, that exclude the
United States. Many say these agreements could put
Congress may consider how best to secure U.S. interests
U.S. companies at a competitive disadvantage. In 2018,
and values in the region, or whether the price to protect
Japan and the European Union signed a new FTA, and
U.S. security interests in Asia is too high. Should the
Japan led the remaining 11 TPP countries to finish a
United States encourage its allies to take a more
new agreement that goes into effect on December 30,
independent approach to their defense? Congress also could
2018, for some members. In September 2018, the United
probe whether the Trump Administration is doing enough
States and Japan agreed to open limited trade
to support U.S. allies and partners in the region.
negotiations.

North Korea
Climate change may increasingly play a role in regional
Potential issues for Congress include whether to support or
security as natural disasters and rising seas displace
impose conditions on the Administration’s diplomacy with
people and damage economies, particularly in Southeast
North Korea. Despite Kim’s statement supporting
Asia, or as the opening of an Arctic sea lane changes
conditional denuclearization and his cessation of nuclear
trade patterns.
and missile tests, many analysts have expressed concern
Select Issues for Congress
that North Korea has benefited from the diplomatic process
without providing concrete concessions in return. Congress
Questions for Congress may include whether the
can explore whether to limit or expand the President’s
Administration’s budget submission supports its FOIP
ability to ease, waive, and/or lift sanctions previously
strategy, how to weigh in on trade policy, and what role
passed by Congress. Congress may also pressure the
Congress should play in defining U.S. goals in the region.
Administration to include North Korean human rights
China
abuses in denuclearization negotiations.
The Administration’s National Security Strategy describes
South Asia
both China and Russia as seeking to “challenge American
Congress may also wish to consider how the U.S.
power, influence, and interests, attempting to erode
government should approach the India-Pakistan-China
American security and prosperity.” A summary of the U.S.
strategic triangle. Should Washington seek to “balance” its
National Defense Strategy released in January 2018
ties with India and Pakistan? Should the United States
describes China as a “strategic competitor” that is pursuing
undertake new efforts to mediate or otherwise address the
a military modernization program that “seeks Indo-Pacific
India-Pakistan dispute in Kashmir? Should recently
regional hegemony in the near-term and displacement of the
accelerated development of the U.S.-India “strategic
United States to achieve global preeminence in the future.”
partnership” perhaps include a new level of defense
Congress may consider whether China is indeed seeking to
cooperation and technology sharing? How will New Delhi’s
establish control over strategically and economically
generally friendly relations with Russia and Iran affect this
important seas, as well as what U.S. policy should be
effort? If they are affected, how should U.S. policy be
toward RCEP, the AIIB, and the BRI.
recalibrated? With U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan
drastically decreased, should Washington rethink its post-
Is China a “revisionist” power, as the Trump
9/11 alliance with Pakistan, given considerable
Administration asserts, and if so what might that mean for
congressional frustrations with Islamabad’s
U.S. interests in Asia and globally? How should the United
counterterrorism efforts?
States consider Beijing’s human rights record as it shapes
policy toward China? Without U.S. leadership, what would
future political, economic, and security multilateral
Emma Chanlett-Avery, Specialist in Asian Affairs
organizations look like, and what would be the U.S. place
K. Alan Kronstadt, Specialist in South Asian Affairs
in them? What would be the impact on U.S. defense
Susan V. Lawrence, Specialist in Asian Affairs
strategy, plans, programs, and spending?
Mark E. Manyin, Specialist in Asian Affairs
IF11047

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The Asia Pacific: Challenges and Opportunities for U.S. Policy

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