Zimbabwe: Forthcoming Elections

Zimbabwe: Forthcoming Elections

Updated July 26, 2018
Zimbabwe: Forthcoming Elections
On July 30, 2018, Zimbabwe is slated to hold presidential,
ZANU-PF’s rural strength—and citizens’ memories of past
parliamentary and local elections—the first since the
violence and intimidation by ZANU-PF militants and the
November 2017 transfer of presidential power from Robert
state security apparatus—may also aid the party.
Mugabe to Emmerson Mnangagwa. Mugabe’s departure,
Close links between Mnangagwa and the military could be
after 37 years in office, raised hopes for the resolution of a
another advantage. An April/May 2018 Afrobarometer poll
persistent economic crisis and for a democratic transition
found that 41% of those surveyed viewed the military’s
ending a long pattern of human rights violations and
intervention as “the right thing to do,” and another 40% saw
undemocratic governance—and an end to the years of
it as “wrong but necessary.” ZANU-PF-military ties,
international condemnation, sanctions, and isolation
however, also carry risks for the party. Large majorities of
generated by such trends. Mnangagwa, a former close
respondents to the survey disapproved of a military role in
Mugabe ally, has committed to a range of economic and
governance or politics.
governance reforms. He has also pledged that these
elections will be free, fair, and peaceful.
Mugabe’s 2017 Resignation
The elections’ credibility will determine the relative
Mugabe resigned as president in 2017 to preempt a
legitimacy of the next government and its ability to mend
parliamentary impeachment vote orchestrated by pro-
relations with the international financial institutions (IFIs)
Mnangagwa elements of ZANU-PF. The ZANU-PF action
and Western governments. This, in turn, could bolster the
followed an armed intervention led by Constantino Chiwenga,
government’s ability to negotiate a sovereign debt arrears
then head of the armed forces and now Vice President. It was
payment deal, a critical step toward returning the economy
spurred by rivalry between ZANU-PF factions over the
to health. A dearth of capital is a major factor underpinning
succession of Mugabe, then aged 93, as head of the party and as
the dire economic situation, and Zimbabwe’s longstanding
president. Mugabe’s apparent decision to sideline a pro-
debt arrears have cut it off from new credit. A legitimate
Mnangagwa old guard faction linked to the security forces in
election could also spur increased foreign investment and
favor of one led by Mugabe’s wife prompted the military to
trade. Western donors view free and fair elections as a key
intervene and facilitate Mugabe’s removal.
prerequisite for increased cooperation and engagement.
Election Players and Prospects
Electoral Administration
The presidential front-runners are Mnangagwa, aged 75, the
To demonstrate its commitment to free and fair elections,
presidential candidate of the Zimbabwe National Union-
the government invited Western monitors to observe the
Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), and Nelson Chamisa, aged 40,
vote for the first time since the early 2000s. Eleven
of the MDC Alliance. The MDC Alliance consists of the
international organizations, including two U.S.-funded
main Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) political
groups, 26 countries, and other entities, are slated to send
party and former MDC splinter factions. A June/July 2018
monitoring teams. In addition, Mnangagwa publicly called
poll by Afrobarometer found that ZANU-PF, the majority
on ZANU-PF to respect fair political competition.
party, was favored by 40% of respondents (48% in rural
areas and 26% in urban areas), while 37% (49% in urban
The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) has made
areas and 30% in rural areas) favored the MDC Alliance.
substantial election preparation progress since a change in
the agency’s leadership in early 2018, and levels of public
Both parties face internal divisions, as well as many smaller
trust in ZEC have risen moderately since 2017, according to
rival parties—including two minor opposition party
Afrobarometer. The ZEC has biometrically registered 5.6
coalitions and two parties started by Mugabe supporters—
million voters, and put in place measures to prevent
and there are currently 22 presidential candidates (down
multiple voting, allow voters to digitally verify their
from 23). ZANU-PF’s primary elections featured fierce
registrations, and improve the integrity of assisted voting.
intra-party competition, and incumbent legislators won only
28% of these races. Chamisa is opposed by a rival MDC
The ZEC has also increased engagement with parties and
leader, Thokozani Khupe, who is running on a separate
civil society organizations (CSOs), and opposition parties
MDC ticket. She disputed Chamisa’s selection by party
have faced fewer restrictions on their ability to campaign
leaders to serve as the MDC’s presidential candidate after
and organize than in past elections. The ZEC and political
the early 2018 death of Morgan Tsvangirai, the MDC’s
parties have strengthened an existing political party code of
longtime leader and former prime minister (2009-2013).
conduct, and many parties have signed an elections peace
pledge. The High Court recently upheld a constitutional ban
Many believe a ZANU-PF victory is likely, given the
on partisan political activity by local chiefs, although the
party’s national reach and opposition disunity, but not
plaintiff is appealing the decision.
inevitable. Broad support for Mugabe’s ouster and
optimism about Mnangagwa’s reform pledges may prompt
many voters to give ZANU-PF the benefit of the doubt.
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Zimbabwe: Forthcoming Elections
Free and Fair Elections?
in ZANU-PF strongholds, of partisan distributions of farm
Despite positive progress by the ZEC, CSOs and opposition
inputs and food aid, and of a moderate rise in political
parties have expressed a range of concerns regarding
violence. In late June, a grenade exploded at a Mnangagwa
allegedly non-transparent and legally or procedurally
political rally, injuring several high-level ZANU-PF figures
questionable actions by the ZEC. Such actors have filed
and killing two attendees. The attack remains unattributed.
several public interest suits aimed at preventing post-
election challenges and ensuring constitutionally compliant,
“The MDC Alliance will not be frog-marched into a
legitimate elections.
sham election”—MDC Alliance Presidential Candidate
Given past regime repression—and Mnangagwa’s own
State media, which have a virtual monopoly on rural
leading role therein—some critics doubt the government’s
audiences, have shown bias toward ZANU-PF,
commitment to a free and fair vote. ZANU-PF and the
notwithstanding some coverage of opposition parties.
executive branch have long used procedural and legal
Observers have also noted that despite a decline since late
manipulation, violence, and other means to ensure the
party’
2017 in the application of laws that allow authorities to
s electoral dominance. This was notably so in 2008,
restrict assembly and expression, these laws remain on the
when the opposition won a parliamentary majority and
books. That fact, and the authorities’ extensive use of such
claimed to have won the presidency, despite widespread
measures during past elections, may have a chilling effect.
human rights abuses by ZANU-PF militants and the state
Executive branch oversight of the ZEC has also continued,
security apparatus. An ensuing deep political impasse led to
despite a constitutional requirement that the ZEC be
a regionally mediated government of national unity.
independent. CSOs are also concerned that the ZEC staff
Electoral Challenges
includes many current and former military and intelligence
Opposition parties and CSOs have identified multiple
personnel, though the ZEC has denied such claims.
electoral process issues, notably challenges relating to the
Congress and the U.S. Role
voters’ roll. The ZEC released the roll, as required by law,
U.S benchmarks for the 2018 elections, as set out by the
but only after delays and a successful opposition legal suit
State Department, include the independent, nonpartisan
requiring that it do so. There are also concerns over what
administration of the vote by the ZEC; voter roll
data was included in the version of the roll that was
transparency; freedom to campaign and equal access to
released. This has implications for verification of the roll’s
state media for all parties; and an absence of security force
accuracy by parties or others, including an ongoing
participation in voter intimidation or election
independent audit of the roll by a group of CSOs.
administration. Within the past year, Congress has
ZEC transparency regarding the printing, chain of custody,
examined prospects for a democratic transition and free and
transport and format of the ballot is another matter of
fair elections in Zimbabwe in Senate and House
concern. Opposition parties were supposed to be able to
subcommittee hearings, and on June 29, 2018, the Senate
monitor the entire ballot production process, but report that
also confirmed a new ambassador to Zimbabwe, Brian
access has been highly restricted. The ballot design also
Nichols.
reportedly favors Mnangagwa, who appears at the top of a
On July 25, 2018, the Senate and House passed S. 2779
two-column list of candidates. Reportedly inadequate voter
(Flake), a bill to amend the Zimbabwe Democracy and
registration rates in some areas—notably cities, a locus of
Economic Recovery Act of 2001 (ZDERA, P.L. 107-99).
opposition support—are also concerns, as is
Among other provisions, ZDERA prohibits U.S. support for
disenfranchisement. Despite a constitutional requirement
IFIs and bilateral debt relief and credit for Zimbabwe unless
that all Zimbabweans be able to vote, those abroad cannot
free and fair elections are held and other policy conditions
do so, apart from state officials.
met. S. 2779 modifies these conditions. It also seeks to
Some ZANU-PF supporters also appear to be seeking to
foster improved bilateral relations, if the Zimbabwean
undermine trust in the electoral process. Many voters have
government satisfies certain policy criteria. These criteria
faced legally tenuous official demands for their voter
center on electoral integrity, alignment of Zimbabwe’s laws
registration serial numbers or documentation. In addition, in
with its 2013 constitution, military nonpartisanship,
early July, voters across the country received constituency-
economic reforms, and law enforcement measures.
specific ZANU-PF campaign message cell phone texts.
Congress has also used appropriation laws to restrict
This raised fears that the ZEC had colluded with ZANU-PF
bilateral aid and maintain U.S. opposition to IFI loans to
by providing it with voter phone and identity data. The ZEC
Zimbabwe. Nevertheless, diverse U.S. bilateral aid
denied this, and ZANU-PF claimed it had used its own data.
development programs are funded, including ones that
Opposition parties and some analysts view such tactics as a
support voter education and mobilization, election
form of tacit intimidation in favor of ZANU-PF. They see it
monitoring, and election administration support. Other
as exploiting fear among some voters that their voting
bilateral governance and democracy (D&G) programs seek
registration data and choices will be accessible to ZANU-
to increase civic engagement, government accountability,
PF, leaving them vulnerable to retaliation. The opposition
and democratic participation. D&G programs and related
also views the military’s widespread deployment of troops
human rights efforts, however, recently faced a hurdle; U.S.
to rural areas as a form of voter intimidation.
officials recently suspended funding for three program
There are reports that residents, notably in rural areas, are
implementers pending financial reviews of their operations.
being coerced into joining ZANU-PF political meetings and
Nicolas Cook, Specialist in African Affairs
purchasing party membership cards. There also are
increasing reports of threats against opposition supporters
IF10933
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Zimbabwe: Forthcoming Elections

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