Mexico’s 2018 Elections: Results and Potential Implications

Mexico’s 2018 Elections: Results and Potential Implications

Updated July 17, 2018
Mexico’s 2018 Elections: Results and Potential Implications
On July 1, 2018, Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his
political skills, analysts questioned Anaya’s level of
leftist MORENA party dominated Mexico’s presidential
experience, and his coalition lacked ideological coherence.
and legislative elections. López Obrador won 53.2% of the
presidential vote, more than 30 percentage points ahead of
Jose Antonio Meade led a coalition of the PRI, the
his nearest rival, Ricardo Anaya. MORENA’s coalition also
Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM), and the New
won majorities in both chambers of congress. These results
Alliance (PANAL). Meade is a 49-year-old economist who
demonstrated voters’ dissatisfaction with the traditional
has served as a Cabinet minister in PAN and PRI
parties and gave López Obrador a strong governing
administrations, most recently as Peña Nieto’s finance
mandate. He is to succeed Enrique Peña Nieto as president
minister. He does not have strong ties to the PRI, but the
on December 1, 2018, and serve a single, six-year term.
party’s reputation for corruption and President Peña Nieto’s
historic unpopularity hurt his chances.
Election Results
The scale of this year’s elections, combined with record
Jaime Rodríguez became Mexico’s first independent
electoral-related violence that resulted in the deaths of more
presidential candidate. He is a 60-year-old agricultural
than 150 candidates or politicians, tested Mexico’s electoral
engineer who became Mexico’s first independent governor
system. Despite these challenges, most observers deemed
in 2015 (Nuevo León).
the elections free and fair. Observers generally praised the
National Electoral Institute, the entity that administered the
Presidential Results
elections of more than 18,000 posts.
Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s commanding victory
signaled a significant change in Mexico’s political
Many analysts described Mexico’s 2018 elections as a
development. López Obrador won in 31 of 32 states,
competition between candidates who supported continuity
demonstrating that he had broadened his support from his
and those who promised change. Most analysts predicted
base in southern Mexico. The 2018 elections stand in sharp
that presidential candidates Ricardo Anaya, José Antonio
contrast to previous presidential contests in which the victor
Meade, and Jaime Rodríguez would maintain Mexico’s
garnered less than 40% of the vote and won by narrow
2013 constitutional reforms (including those that opened
margins of 6.6% (2012) and 0.5% (2006).
the energy and telecommunications sectors to private
investment and an education reform that increased teachers’
Figure 1. Presidential Vote Results
standards) and liberal internationalist foreign policy
orientation. Analysts had more uncertainty about a López
Obrador presidency. Some observers feared that López
Obrador might roll back Mexico’s market-friendly reforms
and adopt a more isolationist foreign policy.
Presidential Candidates
Andrés Manuel López Obrador led a coalition of
MORENA, the socially conservative Social Encounter
Party (PES) and the leftist Labor Party (PT). López Obrador
is a 64-year-old former mayor of Mexico City (2000-2005)
who ran for president in the past two elections. After his
loss in 2012, he left the center-left Democratic
Revolutionary Party (PRD) and established MORENA. In
2018, López Obrador promised to bring about change by
governing differently than recent Institutional
Revolutionary Party (PRI) and National Action Party
(PAN) administrations that have presided over periods of

Source: Mexico’s National Election Institute.
moderate but stable economic growth, rising insecurity, and
ongoing corruption. He focused on addressing voters’
concerns about corruption, poverty and inequality, and
The presidential election results have prompted soul-
searching within the traditional parties and shown the limits
escalating crime and violence.
of independent candidates. Anaya’s defeat has provoked
Ricardo Anaya led an unconventional coalition of the
internal struggles within the PAN. Some maintain that
conservative PAN, the PRD, and the leftist Citizens’
Anaya should continue as a party leader, while others,
Movement (MC). Anaya is a 39-year-old lawyer, former
particularly conservatives aligned with former President
legislator, and recent PAN party president. Despite his
Felipe Calderón, blame Anaya for the defeat because of the
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Mexico’s 2018 Elections: Results and Potential Implications
alliance he created with the PRD. Meade’s poor
minister, Marcelo Ebrard, has said that a López Obrador
performance has similarly demonstrated voters’ deep
government is likely to return to Mexico’s traditional, non-
frustration with the PRI, the party that governed Mexico
interventionist approach to foreign policy (the so-called
from 1929 to 2000. The PAN and the PRI each will still
Estrada doctrine). As an example, Ebrard predicted that
control 12 governorships, but MORENA won five
Mexico could scale back the role it has played in seeking to
governorships (including in Mexico City) and the MC won
address the crises in Venezuela. Many analysts predict that
one. One of the other two governors is from the PVEM; the
Mexico would continue to engage on global issues that it
other is an independent (Rodríguez).
deems important, such as climate change. The government
also is likely to continue participating in pro-trade fora,
Preliminary Legislative Election Results
such as the Pacific Alliance, and seeking to diversify its
In addition to the presidential contest, all 128 seats in the
export partners to reduce its reliance on the United States.
Senate and 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies were up
Considerations for U.S. Policy
for election. Senators serve for six years, and deputies serve
for three. Beginning this cycle, both senators and deputies
There is some uncertainty over what López Obrador’s
will be eligible to run for reelection for a maximum of 12
victory means for the United States. Whereas some analysts
years in office. Final election results are not yet available.
predict he is likely to take stronger stances in opposition to
any U.S. policies perceived as hostile, others predict he will
According to preliminary results, MORENA’s coalition
be pragmatic. During his July 1, 2018, victory speech, he
won majorities in the Senate (69 of 128 seats) and the
focused primarily on his vision for Mexico but said he
Chamber (307 of 500 seats). The PAN is likely to edge out
would seek a good relationship with the United States. He
the PRI as the second-largest party in each chamber,
aims for a relationship “always based on mutual respect”
followed by the PRD. The MORENA coalition lacks the
and will prioritize “the defense of the countrymen and
two-thirds majority it needs to make constitutional changes
migrants who live and work” in the United States.
or overturn reforms passed in 2013 (such as the energy and
education reforms). It may be able to form alliances with
President-elect López Obrador’s position on the North
the center-left PRD or others on specific issues, however.
American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which he used
to criticize for hurting Mexico’s agricultural sector, has
Prospects for a López Obrador
evolved. He supports ongoing negotiations to modify the
Presidency
agreement. His chief NAFTA negotiator, Jesús Seade, has
Mexican voters gave President-elect López Obrador a
suggested that the incoming government would accept an
mandate to change the course of Mexico’s domestic
agreement negotiated by the outgoing administration.
politics, but he will face constraints in enacting his agenda.
López Obrador has set high expectations for his
The future of bilateral security and migration cooperation is
government and promised many things to many different
unclear. Some observers are concerned that López Obrador
constituencies, some of which appear to conflict with each
has discussed potential amnesty for nonviolent criminals.
other. As an example, he has promised to govern austerely,
Others are wary that he does not seem to support an
independent prosecutor general’s office. López Obrador’s
but has proposed a number of new social programs. Key
domestic goals that he has proposed include
advisers have not ruled out legalizing marijuana or
decriminalizing opium poppy cultivation. López Obrador
 Increasing prison sentences and prohibiting bail for
has said that he will not aggressively deport Central
those accused of corruption and electoral crimes;
American migrants but will seek to promote development in
that region as a way of stopping illegal emigration.
 Implementing an austerity plan to cut high-level
government officials’ salaries and benefits;
After the election, López Obrador had a “cordial”
congratulatory call with President Trump on July 2, 2018.
 Establishing a universal pension for the elderly;
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo described his meeting with
the President-elect in Mexico on July 13, 2018, as

“wonderful.”
Combating root causes of insecurity by giving youth
Although this goodwill may not last,
stipends to study or complete internships, enacting a
observers are hoping that the transition period before
transitional justice law that may reduce prison time for
President-elect López Obrador takes office on December 1,
nonviolent offenders, and revising drug policy;
2018, provides time for more Cabinet-level meetings. For
more information, see CRS Report R42917, Mexico:
 Reviewing all energy contracts for any irregularities and
Background and U.S. Relations; CRS Report RL32934,
bolstering Mexico’s refining capacity;
U.S.-Mexico Economic Relations: Trends, Issues, and
Implications; CRS In Focus IF10578, Mexico: Evolution of
 Modifying or repealing the education reform; and,
the Mérida Initiative, 2007-2018.
 Boosting expenditures on infrastructure and revitalizing
Clare Ribando Seelke, Specialist in Latin American
the domestic agricultural sector.
Affairs
Edward Y. Gracia, Research Assistant
In the area of foreign policy, President-elect López
Obrador generally has maintained that the best foreign
IF10867
policy is a strong domestic policy. His future foreign
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Mexico’s 2018 Elections: Results and Potential Implications

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