Colombia’s 2018 Elections

Colombia’s 2018 Elections

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Updated July 12, 2018
Colombia’s 2018 Elections
Colombians elected a new congress in March 2018 and a
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), a leftist
new president in June 2018. Because no presidential
guerrilla organization that had engaged in a violent
candidate won more than 50% of the vote on May 27, 2018,
insurgency against the Colombian government since the
as required for a victory in the first round, a second-round
mid-1960s. Initiatives to enact the peace accord, if fully
runoff was held June 17. That contest resulted in a victory
implemented, are projected to cost $45 billion over the next
for a popular far-right candidate, Iván Duque, who will
15 years.
assume office on August 7, 2018.
Colombian voters did not consider peace a key electoral
Figure 1. Presidential Second-Round Vote Results
issue. Polls taken throughout the year leading up to the
elections revealed that corruption, citizen security, health
care, unemployment, poverty, and, increasingly, concerns
about the growing flood of refugees from Venezuela were
bigger voter priorities. Peace, including negotiations with
the country’s second-oldest and now largest insurgent
group, the National Liberation Army (ELN), ranked near
the bottom. Some observers maintain that support for peace
programs in Colombia is important not to benefit former
FARC or other demobilized combatants but to fulfill
promises the government made in the peace accords to the
country’s 8.6 million victims of the five-decade conflict.
Duque won the backing of the Wake Up Coalition,
consisting of some voters who had opposed an earlier
Source: CRS.
version of the Santos-backed peace accord in an October
Notes: Drawn from data in http://www.eltiempo.com/elecciones-
2016 referendum, along with others who viewed the ratified
colombia-2018/presidenciales/mapa-de-resultados-de-la-segunda-
accord with the FARC as too lenient; wanted to see some
vuelta-presidencial-en-colombia-232010.
more business-friendly, orthodox economic policies,
including reductions in taxes; and supported the
Representing the Democratic Center (CD) party, which had
commitment by President-elect Duque to take steps to
gained seats in the March congressional elections and won
contain the government of Nicolás Maduro in neighboring
the most seats in the Colombian Senate (see Figure 2),
Venezuela. In the runoff campaign, some parties that had
Duque was carried to victory with almost 54% of the vote.
backed the peace accord with the FARC, such as the
Runner-up Gustavo Petro, a leftist former mayor of Bogotá,
Liberal Party, announced their support for Duque because
a former Colombian Senator, and once a member of the M-
Petro was deemed too far left.
19 guerilla insurgency, nevertheless did better than any
leftist candidate in a presidential race in the past century;
Several milestones in peace implementation have been
Petro won 8 million votes and nearly 42% of the votes cast.
achieved, including disarming the FARC and ratifying the
Around 4.2% were protest votes, signifying Colombian
Special Jurisdiction for Peace—the transitional justice
voters who cast blank ballots.
regime for judicial proceedings against those who
Looking Ahead to a Duque Presidency
committed gross human rights violations and war crimes.
Nevertheless, key sections of the agreement remain
Duque, who will become president at the age of 42, served
unaddressed, leaving completion of its implementation to
a single term in the Colombian Senate. Duque was partially
the incoming president and new congress. Duque has
educated in the United States and worked for the Inter-
pledged to alter some elements of the accord that remain
American Development Bank in Washington, DC, for
controversial, even though the Colombian Congress ratified
several years. He was the handpicked candidate of former
the accord in November 2016 and the Colombian
Colombian President Álvaro Uribe, who served for two
Constitutional Court has ruled that it must be implemented
terms, ending in 2010. Uribe, who opposed many of the
over the next three terms, or 12 years.
policies of his successor, Juan Manuel Santos, is the leader
of the CD party (a party he founded in opposition to the
In 2016 and 2017, Colombia’s coca cultivation and cocaine
policies of two-term President Santos) and a prominent CD
production exceeded previous records. In 2016, according
senator who was reelected in March 2018.
to the U.S. government, Colombia cultivated 188,000
hectares of coca; in 2017, it cultivated an unprecedented
Duque will inherit an economy that is projected to grow by
209,000 hectares of coca. Even with Colombia’s economic
2.5% in 2018 but may be strained by the costs associated
stability and improving security, cocaine exports, primarily
with implementing a peace accord signed with the
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Colombia’s 2018 Elections
to the U.S. market, are a major concern. In September 2017,
implementation and Colombia’s stability in light of a
President Trump considered making a determination that
number of corruption scandals, continued assassinations of
Colombia was not cooperating with the U.S. government in
human rights defenders and other social activists, and
its counter-drug efforts. Although that determination was
record coca crops.
never finalized, the Trump Admininistration seemed to
welcome Duque’s approach to combatting illicit drugs,
Figure 2. Legislative Election Results
which appears to be a more traditional approach than that of
(March 11, 2018, results and the 12 automatic seats shown)
the Santos government.
Duque and his vice president, Marta Lucía Ramírez, who
initially ran as the Conservative Party candidate in the
presidential first round, have recommended that drug policy
shift back to a stricter counter-drug approach rather than a
model endorsed in the peace accord that focuses on
voluntary eradication and economic support to peasant
farmers to transition away from illicit drug crop cultivation.
Duque campaigned on returning to spraying coca crops
with the herbicide glyphosate. This policy would reverse
Colombia’s decision in mid-2015 to end aerial spraying,
which had been a central—albeit controversial—feature of
U.S.-Colombian counter-drug cooperation for two decades.
Other security issues also are prominent. Social leaders and
human rights activists have been murdered in record
numbers since the peace accord was finalized. Both Santos
and Duque have expressed dismay at the jump in these
attacks, although Santos attributes the sharp uptick to not
providing adequate protections for rural activists, as
required in the peace accord, and continues to push for the
accord’s full implementation.

Legislative Election Results
Source: “Nueva Composición del Senado a Partir del 20 Julio”, Senado de
Colombia, March 14, 2018, at http://www.senado.gov.co/noticiero-del-
The new congress to be seated on July 20, 2018, expanded
senado/item/27756-nueva-composicion-del-senado-a-partir-del-20-
in each chamber by 6 seats; the result is a combined
julio; http://especiales.semana.com/big-data-electoral/distribucion-
congress of 280 seats (see Figure 2). Typically, 102
camara-representantes/index.html.
Senators and 166 members of the lower chamber, or House
Notes: FARC=Revolutionary Alternative Common Force;
of Representatives, are elected every four years. Senators
MIRA=Absolute Renovation Independent Movement;
are elected at the same four-year intervals from a single
PDA=Alternative Democratic Pole; OC=Citizens’ Option;
nationwide party list, with two chosen by Colombia’s
DC=Decentes; MAIS=Alternative Indigenous and Social Movement;
indigenous population.
CJL=Colombia Justa Libres; CAS=Alternate Santander Coalition;
ACN=Ancestral Afro-Colombian Communal Council of Playa
In the new Congress, two extra seats, for the presidential
Renaciente; CCM=La Mamuncia Communal Council; VP (Second
and vice presidential runners up, have been added as
Place Presidential in the Senate; Second Place Vice Presidential in
automatic seats in the Senate and House, due to a
House); AICO=Indigenous Authorities of Colombia.
constitutional change in 2015, allowing presidential
candidate Gustavo Petro to return to the Senate. He is likely
As the Duque government takes office, some considerations
to become a leader of the opposition to the incoming Duque
for Congress may include the following:
government. Five seats in each house are reserved for
former (demobilized) FARC members; those seats will
 How will counternarcotics strategies and security
endure for two election cycles, ending in 2026, as required
cooperation with the United States change?
by the peace accord. The FARC Party—which uses the
 Will the end of a half century of internal conflict leave
same acronym as the insurgent organization, although the
Colombia open to focus on its economic advancement,
acronym now signifies the Revolutionary Alternative
or will the peace deal’s implementation and potential
Common Force—did not win in any additional
benefits become imperiled?
congressional race for which it competed in March, so the
automatic seats are all that it shall fill.
For more background, see CRS Report R43813, Colombia:
Background and U.S. Relations and CRS Report R44779,
Some Considerations for U.S. Policy
Colombia’s Changing Approach to Drug Policy.
Colombia is one of the United States’ closest political
partners in the region. The U.S. government has invested in
June S. Beittel, Analyst in Latin American Affairs
Colombia’s security for almost two decades through Plan
Edward Y. Gracia, Research Assistant
Colombia and its successor strategy, Peace Colombia. Key
IF10817
concerns in the U.S. Congress remain the peace accord’s
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Colombia’s 2018 Elections

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