The Changing Geopolitics of Asia: Issues for Congress

The Changing Geopolitics of Asia: Issues for Congress

Updated May 12, 2017
The Changing Geopolitics of Asia: Issues for Congress
Introduction
bodies of water: the South China Sea, the East China
The 115th Congress has the opportunity to shape
Sea, and the Sea of Japan.
the Executive Branch’s approach to foreign and security
policy, including toward Asia, where shifting geopolitics
Emerging Trends
are posing new challenges for U.S. policy. China is
 The balance of economic power in the region continues
expanding its presence in its near seas, including the East
to shift. In 2010, China overtook Japan to become the
China Sea and the South China Sea, as well as in the
world’s second largest economic power in nominal
Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean. It is also increasing
terms. (China became the world’s largest economy in
its economic footprint in Southeast Asia and seeking to
purchasing power parity terms in 2014.) By 2030, many
build economic corridors to its west, across the Eurasian
economists predict that China will overtake the United
continent. U.S. ally Japan is expanding its own presence in
States to become the world’s largest economy in
South and Southeast Asia, including pursuing infrastructure
nominal terms. By the same date, some predict that
projects to boost regional economic connectivity. India, a
U.S. strategic partner, is implementing “Look East” and
India might displace Japan for the number three
“Act East” policies focused on East and S
economic spot. The economic and, to a lesser extent,
outheast Asia,
military rise of India exacerbates national security fears
even as its intense rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a
in Pakistan and is being monitored warily in Beijing.
close partner of China, continues. North Korea’s nuclear
and missile threats are, meanwhile, driving re-evaluations
 China is increasingly asserting leadership in regional
of interests and relationships across the region. The tools
economic and financial initiatives. It is championing its
Congress may use to influence U.S. policy in Asia include
“Belt and Road” initiative, an effort to boost
hearings and investigations; the Senate confirmation
infrastructure development and economic
process; the authorizing and appropriations processes; other
connectivity—and expand China’s influence—among
legislative directives and restrictions; resolutions and policy
more than 65 countries on three continents. The most
statements; inspectors general; reporting requirements;
prominent Belt and Road project, the $46 billion China-
program evaluation; and informal advice and pressure.
Pakistan Economic Corridor, would give China overland
Asia: Key Facts
access to the Arabian Sea, allowing some of China’s
seaborne trade to bypass the Strait of Malacca, the
 Five of the seven U.S. treaty allies are in Asia:
strategic chokepoint that connects the Indian Ocean and
Australia, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and
the Pacific Ocean via the Andaman Sea and the South
Thailand. Over 63,000 U.S. troops are deployed in the
China Sea. China is also promoting the Regional
region.
Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a
regional trade agreement that does not include the
 In 2016, five Asian economies were among the top ten
United States. In 2015, China launched a new
U.S. trading partners: China (no. 1), Japan (no. 4), South
multilateral development bank, the Asia Infrastructure
Korea (no. 6), India (no. 9), and Taiwan (no. 10). India
Investment Bank (AIIB). The United States is not a
is the world’s fastest-growing major economy.
member, but 14 of the other G-20 nations are.
 Asia is home to the United States’ nearest competitor in
 Military spending in the region is rising, with China
economic size and military strength, China; the world’s
seeking greater power projection capabilities and other
most populous democracy, India; and the world’s most
nations seeking to enhance their security relative to
populous Muslim-majority nation and third most
China amid questions about the future U.S. role in
populous democracy, Indonesia.
regional security. China is the world’s second-largest
spender on defense, after the United States. India joined
 Asia includes five nations with nuclear weapons
the top five global defense spenders in 2016, moving
programs: China and Russia, both permanent members
into the number four spot, according to IHS Jane’s, and
of the United Nations Security Council; India and
has become a major importer of U.S. defense articles.
Pakistan, which are bitter rivals; and North Korea,
which carried out two nuclear tests in 2016 alone.
 Strategic rivalry between China and India appears to be
intensifying, perhaps especially in the Indian Ocean
 Several Asian nations are struggling to defeat Islamist
region. The world’s two most populous states also share
militancy, most prominently Pakistan.
the world’s longest disputed land border and have
divergent views on Pakistan, which enjoys significant
 Asian nations, including U.S. allies, are involved in
support from Beijing, and on Tibet.
maritime territorial disputes in at least three major
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The Changing Geopolitics of Asia: Issues for Congress
 U.S. security partners are moving beyond their
U.S. Alliances
traditional bilateral “hub and spokes” relationships with
As a candidate, Trump stated that, “The countries we are
the United States and forging new partnerships with
defending must pay for the cost of this defense, and if not,
each other, sometimes including the United States and
the U.S. must be prepared to let these countries defend
sometimes not. Examples include the Japan-Australia
themselves.” Issues of burden-sharing have yet to be
security partnership; regular U.S.-India-Japan naval
resolved, but an early summit meeting between Trump and
exercises; and Japan’s provision of naval patrol
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe may have helped
equipment to the Philippines.
establish rapport between the two leaders. South Korea’s
new center-left President Moon Jae-in, elected on May 9,
 Since the G-7’s imposition of sanctions on Russia over
2017, following his predecessor’s impeachment, has said he
Russia’s actions in Ukraine, Russia has sought to
hopes to engage with North Korea, a stance that could be at
develop stronger partnerships in Asia. Moscow and
odds with the Trump Administration’s approach. Questions
Beijing have found common cause in their resistance to
remain about U.S. alliances and partnerships in Asia,
the deployment of a U.S. missile defense system in
particularly with allies Australia and Thailand, partners in
South Korea. Russia is also exploring closer ties with
Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. Congress could be faced with
Japan, which is eager to balance China’s growing
questions about whether the price tag to protect U.S.
power, and Pakistan, which is not.
security interests in Asia is too high. Should the United
States encourage its allies to take a more independent
Select Issues for Congress
approach to their defense? Should the United States
continue to protect Japan and South Korea under its
Trump Administration Policies
“nuclear umbrella,” traditionally seen as a fundamental
President Donald J. Trump has made statements reaffirming
tenet of the alliances and a bulwark against the possibility
the U.S. commitment to alliances with Japan and South
of countries developing their own nuclear weapons?
Korea. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis has described
Beijing as having “shredded the trust of nations in the
North Korea
region” through its activities in the South China Sea, but
North Korea has accelerated its nuclear weapons and
stated that “there is no need right now” for military
missile programs, testing two nuclear devices and
maneuvers. As President-elect, Trump appeared to question
conducting over 20 missile tests in 2016 alone and making
the U.S. “one China” policy that has long underpinned
strides in mastering the technology necessary to mount a
relations with China, but as President, he has committed to
miniaturized nuclear warhead onto an intercontinental
honoring it. On North Korea, the Administration has
ballistic missile capable of reaching the United States. In
announced a policy that “aims to pressure North Korea into
2016, the United Nations Security Council passed two new
dismantling its nuclear, ballistic missile, and proliferation
resolutions intended to tighten existing sanctions on the
programs by tightening economic sanctions and pursuing
regime, although past attempts did not prevent North Korea
diplomatic measures.... ” On trade, Trump has withdrawn
from advancing its nuclear program. Issues for Congress
the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP),
include how the United States should respond if North
a free trade agreement concluded among 12 Asia and
Korea launches another provocation in the near term, and
Pacific nations that was central to the Obama
whether cooperation with China to increase economic
Administration’s “rebalance to Asia” policy. Questions for
pressure on North Korea is the best approach to the threat.
Congress include whether the Administration’s budget
submission supports its strategy, and what role Congress
South Asia
should play in helping to define U.S. goals in the region.
Questions for Congress related to South Asia include how
the U.S. government should engage the fraught India-
China
Pakistan-China strategic triangle. Should Washington seek
In 2016, the Department of Defense began describing China
to “balance” between India and Pakistan and, if so, how?
as one of “five major, immediate, evolving challenges” to
Should recently accelerated development of the U.S.-India
U.S. national security, the others being Russia, North
“strategic partnership” continue, perhaps to include a new
Korea, Iran, and terrorism. With regard to China’s activities
level of defense cooperation and technology sharing? With
in the South and East China Seas and the Indian Ocean,
U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan drastically decreased,
questions for Congress include whether China is seeking to
should previously fulsome U.S. security assistance continue
establish control over strategically and economically
to flow to Pakistan given considerable congressional
important seas, and if so, how the United States should
frustrations with Islamabad’s counterterrorism efforts?
respond. Other questions for Congress include what U.S.
Should the United States undertake new efforts to mediate
policy should be toward RCEP, the AIIB, and the Belt and
or otherwise address the India-Pakistan conflict in
Road Initiative. Without U.S. primacy in Asia, what would
Kashmir? What approach should the United States take
the future political, economic, and security architecture of
toward South Asia’s smaller littoral states, such as Sri
East Asia look like, and what would be the U.S. place in
Lanka and Bangladesh, which may increasingly be settings
that architecture? What would be the impact on U.S.
for China-India rivalry in the Indian Ocean region?
defense strategy, plans, programs, and spending?

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The Changing Geopolitics of Asia: Issues for Congress

Emma Chanlett-Avery, Specialist in Asian Affairs
K. Alan Kronstadt, Specialist in South Asian Affairs
Susan V. Lawrence, Specialist in Asian Affairs
IF10560

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