Tajikistan

Tajikistan

Updated January 12, 2023
Tajikistan
Overview
it failed to secure any seats. International analysts

Tajikistan is a landlocked Central Asian country that
questioned the integrity of the electoral results.
borders four other states, including China and Afghanistan,
and maintains close ties with Russia. Formerly a constituent
Figure 1. Map of Tajikistan
republic of the Soviet Union, Tajikistan became
independent in 1991. The country’s long border with
Afghanistan and the specter of spreading regional
instability draw interest in Tajikistan from China, Russia,
and the United States, as well as some Members of
Congress. Because Tajikistan depends heavily on
remittances, primarily from Russia, the COVID-19
pandemic and repercussions from Russia’s war in Ukraine
are causing significant economic strain. Tajikistan is
becoming increasingly dependent on China, which is
Tajikistan’s largest foreign creditor. Tajikistan has faced
violent attacks attributed to the Islamic State (IS), but the
government also uses the prospect of insurgent activity as a
pretext for stifling opposition. President Emomali Rahmon

and his family control the government and significant
Source: Graphic created by CRS.
sectors of the economy, and corruption is pervasive.
Political Background
Human Rights: According to the U.S. State Department,
significant human rights issues in Tajikistan include
Government: Tajikistan is a presidential republic with
politically motivated reprisals against its citizens living in
power heavily concentrated in the executive. The president
foreign countries, forced disappearances, torture, arbitrary
serves as both head of state and head of government; the
detention, and a non-independent judiciary, as well as
role and influence of the legislature is limited. President
significant restrictions on freedom of expression, freedom
Rahmon has been in power since 1992. He was exempted
of assembly, freedom of movement, religious freedom, and
from term limits in a 2016 constitutional referendum that
political participation. Since 2021, Tajikistan’s government
also granted him and his family immunity from
has been engaging in what some analysts term an
prosecution. Tajikistan under Rahmon has been termed a
“unprecedented” crackdown on local leaders and activists
“nepotistic kleptocracy,” as a small group of families close
in Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO), a
to the president dominate the political and economic
remote, mountainous region whose inhabitants are
spheres. All six parties in parliament support Rahmon. As
primarily Pamiris, an ethnically, culturally, and
speaker of the parliament’s upper chamber, the president’s
linguistically distinct group. The United States and other
son, Rustam Emomali, is first in the line of presidential
governments have expressed concern about the human
succession. No elections in Tajikistan have been deemed
rights situation in GBAO, as have nongovernmental
free and fair by observers from the Organization for
organizations including Human Rights Watch.
Security and Co-operation in Europe.
Tajikistan severely curtails media freedom. Reporters
Stifled Opposition: Shortly after Tajikistan became
Without Borders ranked Tajikistan 152nd out of 180
independent in 1991, the country fell into a five-year civil
countries in its 2022 World Press Freedom Index. Members
war (1992-1997) that claimed over 50,000 lives and
of Congress have expressed concerns about government
displaced more than half a million people. The Islamic
pressure on independent media outlets, particularly the
Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT), which fought with
congressionally-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
anti-government forces, was legalized following the 1997
peace deal and adopted an agenda of democratization. It
Tajikistan has faced criticism, including from some in
went on to become Tajikistan’s second-largest party. In
Congress, for engaging in transnational repression of
2015, the government outlawed the IRPT and labelled it a
government critics, including targeting dissidents through
terrorist organization in what the U.S. State Department
International Criminal Police Organization (INTERPOL)
characterized as “steps to eliminate political opposition.”
wanted persons notices. In response to such actions by
Some of the party’s leaders have been sentenced to lengthy
Tajikistan and other countries, the 117th Congress
prison terms, while others have fled the country. The March
introduced the Transnational Repression Accountability and
2020 parliamentary elections, the first since the IRPT was
Prevention Act to counter politically-motivated abuse of
banned, included candidates from one opposition party, but
INTERPOL; the bill did not emerge from committee.
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Tajikistan
The government of Tajikistan restricts and strictly regulates
Rogun Dam could make the country a net energy exporter.
religious practices. An estimated 98% of the country’s
Tajikistan’s energy sector is vulnerable to climate change,
population is Muslim, primarily Hanafi Sunni. Authorities
as reduced snowfall can depress hydroelectric output.
target outward signs of religiosity, harassing women who
wear hijabs and men with beards. Minors are prohibited
Economic Dependence on Russia: Tajikistan depends
from participating in public religious activities. The
heavily on remittances from labor migrants in Russia,
government also places restrictions on minority religious
which equaled over one-third of Tajikistan’s GDP in 2021.
groups, including Christian denominations. Tajikistan is
This renders Tajikistan highly vulnerable to external
designated a “Country of Particular Concern” under the
shocks. The World Bank estimates that Tajikistan’s GDP
International Religious Freedom Act of 1998. The State
growth fell to 4.4% in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19
Department regularly waives related sanctions, citing U.S.
pandemic (down from 7.4% in 2019), rebounding to 9.2%
national interest.
in 2021. Despite economic challenges stemming from
Russia’s war in Ukraine, the World Bank estimates 4.2%
growth in 2022 and projects 4.8% growth in 2023.
Tajikistan at a Glance
Land area: 139,960 sq. km. (about the size of North
Chinese Investment: In recent years, China has emerged
Carolina)
as one of Tajikistan’s most important economic partners,
and has made a range of investments in Tajikistan as part of
Population: 9.8 mil ion (2021 est.)
Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. Approximately $2
Ethnicities: 84% Tajik, 14% Uzbek, 2% other (2014 est.)
billion of Tajikistan’s $3.3 billion in external debt is owed
to the state-owned Export-Import Bank of China.
Religions: 95% Sunni Muslim, 3% Shia Muslim, 2% other (2014
est.)
Foreign Policy and U.S. Relations
GDP/GDP per capita (2021): $8.7 bil ion/$897
Foreign Policy: Russia remains Tajikistan’s primary
security partner, providing training and equipment to the
Data from the World Bank and the CIA World Factbook
Tajik armed forces, and Tajikistan hosts a large Russian
Terrorism and Violent Extremism: The government of
military base. Previously tense relations between Tajikistan
Tajikistan estimates that 1,900 of its citizens, including
and neighboring Uzbekistan have improved markedly since
women and children, traveled to Syria and Iraq to join IS or
2016. Tensions on the largely undemarcated Kyrgyz-Tajik
other terrorist groups. Analysts assess that many Tajiks
border periodically erupt into violence. In September 2022,
were radicalized as labor migrants in Russia. In 2019,
over 100 people were killed and over 100,000 displaced due
Tajikistan became one of the first countries to undertake an
to fighting between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Tajikistan’s
organized, large-scale repatriation effort, bringing home 84
long, porous border with Afghanistan is a source of
children from Iraq; a further 146 women and children were
concerns about transnational threats such as violent
repatriated from Syria in 2022. The U.S. Institute of Peace
extremism and narcotics trafficking. The United Nations
has provided support for Tajikistan’s reintegration and
estimates several hundred Tajik nationals are present in
rehabilitation efforts. Central Asian foreign fighters remain
Afghanistan as members of terrorist groups affiliated with
an international concern due to their ongoing participation
Al Qaeda or IS. More than 200 Tajik nationals have
in armed groups active in Syria and Afghanistan. In the
reportedly joined the Taliban. Afghanistan-based terrorist
wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, IS has
groups cooperate with organized criminal networks
reportedly increased the production and dissemination of
involved in smuggling narcotics from Afghanistan into
propaganda and recruitment materials targeting Tajikistan.
Tajikistan.
Tajikistan has experienced several violent incidents
Security Cooperation with China: Tajikistan is increasing
attributed to IS, including prison riots in 2018 and 2019 and
security cooperation with China, which views the country
a 2019 attack on a border post. Some analysts argue that a
as an important barrier against potential extremist spillover
lack of transparency on the part of Tajik authorities makes
from Afghanistan. China has deployed personnel from its
it difficult to determine the true nature of these events.
People’s Armed Police to Tajikistan’s Pamir Mountains,
Government critics also contend that authorities use the
close to the border with Afghanistan. China also supplies
specter of violent extremism as a pretext to repress political
Tajikistan with military hardware and engages in training
dissidents. In 2018, four Western cyclists, including two
exercises with Tajik military units. Tajikistan is a member
Americans, were killed in a terrorist attack. The Tajik
of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
government blamed the attack on the IRPT, even though the
attackers had recorded a video declaring their IS allegiance.
U.S. Relations: U.S. foreign assistance aims to maintain
Tajikistan’s sovereignty, security, and stability. U.S. aid to
Economy
Tajikistan includes support to public health programs as
Key Sectors: Tajikistan is an impoverished country that
well as programs intended to strengthen democratic
depends on metal and mineral exports, and remittances
institutions, address climate change, and improve business
from migrant workers. The country has significant potential
opportunities. U.S. officials note Tajikistan’s desire for a
to develop hydropower infrastructure and export electricity
strong security partnership with the United States, and the
to South Asia, an initiative supported by the partially U.S.-
two countries work together on counternarcotics,
funded Central Asia South Asia Electricity Transmission
nonproliferation, and border security. The State Department
and Trade Project (CASA-1000). If finished, the massive
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Tajikistan
requested $55.15 million for assistance to Tajikistan in
Maria A. Blackwood, Analyst in Asian Policy
FY2023, compared to $49 million allocated in FY2021.
IF10290

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https://crsreports.congress.gov | IF10290 · VERSION 13 · UPDATED