China’s “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution” to Addressing Climate Change in 2020 and Beyond

China’s “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution” to Addressing Climate Change in 2020 and Beyond

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July 6, 2015
China’s “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution” to
Addressing Climate Change in 2020 and Beyond
China’s Pledge to Reduce Greenhouse
resilience is not only driven by China’s domestic
Gas Emissions
needs for sustainable development in ensuring its
On June 30, 2015, the Chinese government submitted its
economic security, energy security, ecological
Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to
security, food security as well as the safety of
the current negotiations under the United Framework
people’s life and property and to achieve
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). China pledged
sustainable development, but also driven by its
that, by 2030, it would:
sense of responsibility to fully engage in global
 peak its carbon dioxide (CO
governance, to forge a community of shared destiny
2) emissions and make best
efforts to peak earlier;
for
humankind
and
to
promote
common

development for all human beings.
increase the share of non-fossil-fuel energy sources to
around 20% of China’s primary energy supply;
China has not officially projected its future greenhouse gas

(GHG) or CO2 emissions, nor has China stated the level at
lower CO2 emitted per unit of gross domestic product
which its emissions will peak and then (implicitly) decline.
(GDP) by 60-65% compared with 2005 level; and
As context for the INDC, Figure 1 shows China’s historical
 expand forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic
CO2 emissions from fuel combustion estimated by the
meters (m3) compared with 2005 levels.
International Energy Agency. (The most recent year for

which China has provided official GHG emissions
The INDC identified China’s strategic policy orientation as
estimates is 2005.) Figure 1 also roughly depicts China’s
“transforming the economic development pattern,
intent to peak its emissions by 2030 alongside several
constructing ecological civilization and holding to a green
researchers’ projections of China’s emissions under
low-carbon and recycled development path.” The INDC
different policy assumptions. The highest trajectory was
also described the government’s “cardinal national policy”
noted by its source as counterfactual, as China has already
as, inter alia, “putting in place the necessary management
undertaken numerous measures to reduce its emissions.
and regulatory mechanisms and systems.” As part of its
However, it may provide a sense of what China’s emissions
rationale, China’s INDC stated:
might have been without current policies. Some projections
of China’s CO2 emissions suggest that China’s existing
To act on climate change in terms of mitigating
policies may achieve the pledged peaking earlier than 2030.
greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing climate
The height of any peak remains unspecified.
Figure 1. China’s GHG Pledge in Context

Source: People’s Republic of China, “Enhanced Actions on Climate Change,” June 30, 2015; International Energy Agency, “CO2 Emissions from
Fuel Combustion Highlights 2014,” November 2014; China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development
(CCICED), “China’s Pathway Towards a Low Carbon Economy,” 2009; Xiliang Zhang et al., “Carbon Emissions in China: How Far Can New
Efforts Bend the Curve?,” MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change and Tsinghua-MIT, October 2014; and Kejun Jiang et
al., “Technology Roadmap for Low Carbon Society in China,” Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy 2, no. 3 (2010).
Notes: This chart only roughly illustrates China’s pledge: The INDC did not identify the level of peak emissions or any declining trajectory
from its peak.
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link to page 2 China’s “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution” to Addressing Climate Change in 2020 and Beyond
More information on the UNFCCC, existing obligations to
financial incentives to improve motor vehicle efficiency,
abate GHG emissions, and the role of INDCs in the current
deployment of highly efficient coal-fired power plants,
negotiations is in CRS Report R44092, Greenhouse Gas
aggressive programs to stimulate energy efficiency
Pledges by Parties to the United Nations Framework
improvements by manufacturers, and CO2 emission trading
Convention on Climate Change, and other CRS reports.
pilot programs in seven provinces and cities.
Comparing China’s Pledges and Progress China’s INDC provides several pages listing policies to
achieve its targets. These address economic restructuring,
As a party to the UNFCCC, China took on legally binding
patterns of development, and measures to directly reduce
obligations to, among other things: (1) implement and
GHG emissions. Among China’s announced plans are to:
regularly report measures to reduce GHG emissions and
 “improve the overall administration of climate-change-
enhance their removal from the atmosphere, and (2)
related work … by subdividing and implementing
communicate emission inventories using agreed
climate change targets and tasks, and improving the
methodological guidelines and describe steps taken to
performance evaluation and accountability system on
implement the convention, subject to review by the
climate change and low-carbon development targets”;
Conference of the Parties.
 “control total coal consumption”;
In the 2009 Copenhagen Accord, parties submitted non-
binding pledges for quantified emission reduction targets or
 “lower coal consumption of electricity generation of
mitigation actions. Table 1 shows (1) China’s pledges
newly built coal-fired power plants to around 300 grams
pursuant to the Copenhagen Accord, (2) China’s progress
coal equivalent per kilowatt-hour”;
toward the Copenhagen targets as reported in the INDC,
 increase natural gas share in consumption over 10% and
and (3) China’s 2015 INDC pledges to 2030.
reach 30 billion m3 of coal-bed methane production;
Table 1. China’s Copenhagen and INDC Pledges
 reduce production of HCFC-22 for controlled uses by
35% from the 2010 level by 2020, and by 67.5% by
2009 pledge (by
Progress
2015 INDC (by
2025, along with “effective control” of emissions of
2020 compared
reported in 2015
2030 compared
HFC-23 by 2030; and
with 2005 levels)
INDC
with 2005 levels)
 raise the share of “green buildings” to 50% by 2020.
No pledge for
n.a.
Peak CO2
absolute or peaking
emissions around
Table 2. China’s Non-Fossil Capacity and Targets
emissions
2030, perhaps
(in gigawatts of installed capacity, unless otherwise noted)
earlier

2005
2014
2030
Lower CO2
Lowered CO2
Lower CO2
emissions 40-45%
emissions 33.8%
emissions 60-65%
Non-fossil share of
6.8%
11.2%
20%
per unit of GDP
per unit of GDP
per unit of GDP
primary energy mix
Increase share of
Share of non-fossil
Increase share of
Wind
1
96
200
non-fossil energy
energy at 11.2%
non-fossil energy
Solar electric
n.a.
28
100
to about 15%
to around 20%
Solar thermal (tons
n.a.
n.a.
50
Increase forested
Increased forested
Add 4.5 billion m3
coal equivalent)
area by 40 million
area by 21.6 million forest stock by
hectares
hectares, added 2.2 volume
Hydro-electric
117
300
n.s.
billion m3 forest
Nuclear
7
20
n.s.
stock by volume
Source: People’s Republic of China, Statistical Yearbook 2014, Tables
No pledge on
n.a.
Proactively adapt
9-1 and 9-15; and People’s Republic of China, INDC. 2015.
adaptation actions
to climate change
Notes: n.a. is “not available.” n.s. is “no target specified.”
Source: People’s Republic of China, “Enhanced Actions on Climate
The INDC also identifies intended policies for preferential
Change,” June 30, 2015.
taxation, pricing mechanisms, green procurement, “green
Notes: Progress, in the second column, is as reported in China’s
credit” for financial institutions, and a national carbon
INDC. It has not been independently verified.
emissions trading market.
Relevant Law, Regulations, and Measures Jane A. Leggett, Specialist in Energy and Environmental
China has lowered its trajectory of GHG emissions through
Policy
economic restructuring toward higher value-added activity,
closure of thousands of inefficient facilities, regulation and
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China’s “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution” to Addressing Climate Change in 2020 and Beyond

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