Ethiopia

Ethiopia

Updated August 3, 2020
Ethiopia
Ethiopia is Africa’s oldest independent state and its second
the 2010 elections and 100% in 2015. Ethiopia ranked, until
most populous country. It hosts the headquarters of the
2018, among the world’s most censored countries.
African Union (AU) and is the world’s largest troop
Figure 1. Ethiopia: Key Facts
contributor to U.N. peacekeeping operations, with forces
deployed in U.N. missions in neighboring Sudan and South
Sudan, and in Somalia as part of a multinational effort to
counter the Al Qaeda affiliate Al Shabaab. The United
States has viewed Ethiopia as an important security partner
in a volatile region. The bilateral relationship, which dates
back over 100 years, has been strained at times by tensions
over human rights and governance concerns.
Anti-government protests, fueled by a violent crackdown on
dissent, shook Ethiopia in 2016-2017. Pressure on the
government led to a leadership change in 2018 that stirred

optimism over the prospects for reforms. The transition
Source: CRS map. Data (2019) from CIA and IMF databases.
underway is fragile, though, and increasingly under strain.
Efforts to suppress dissent intensified in 2016, as protests
When Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018, he
over the perceived marginalization of the largest and second
pledged to open Ethiopia politically and economically. He
largest ethnic groups, the Oromo and Amhara, escalated.
won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for pursuing peace with
The government responded with force and mass arrests:
neighboring Eritrea, initiating reforms at home, and seeking
29,000 people were detained under a state of emergency
to mediate other regional disputes. Amidst his reforms,
that tightened restrictions on expression and assembly. Over
however, ethnic conflict has flared. Violent unrest in early
1,000 people were reportedly killed, many by security
July 2020, triggered by the murder of a popular Oromo
forces, in unrest. The protests surged again in late 2017 and
singer and activist, underscored deep-seated ethnic tensions
ethnic violence intensified, spurring mass displacement.
that threaten Ethiopia’s stability. The government blocked
The unrest shook the foundations of the EPRDF. Under
the internet for weeks and arrested nearly 5,000 people,
public pressure and internal strain, the coalition pledged
including journalists, activists, and several opposition
reforms. In early 2018, then-Prime Minister Hailemariam
leaders, raising concerns of democratic backsliding. The
Desalegn released hundreds of political prisoners and then
government has postponed the 2020 elections due to
resigned, to pave the way for more substantive reforms. The
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), adding to tensions
EPRDF’s first contested leadership election followed, and
and prompting calls for a national dialogue.
Abiy emerged as its first Oromo leader. In April 2018, the
Background
legislature elected him prime minister.
In the past century, Ethiopia’s politics were dominated by
Current Political Context
three leaders: Emperor Haile Selassie (1930 to 1974),
Prime Minister Abiy, a military intelligence veteran with a
military dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam (1977-1991), and
doctorate in philosophy, is Africa’s youngest leader. In his
Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. Meles seized power from
Mengistu’s socialist
inaugural address, he acknowledged critiques of EPRDF
Derg regime in 1991 and ruled until
governance and “the need to address existing inequities that
his death in 2012. As leader of both the Ethiopian Peoples’
led to recent unrest,” stating that “democracy cannot be
Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition and
realized in the absence of rights.” He shocked many when
one of its ethno-regional components, the Tigray Peoples’
he admitted that the government had tortured prisoners.
Liberation Front (TPLF), Meles was a powerful figure in
Ethiopian and regional politics, and his policies contributed
He attracted international headlines early in his tenure with
to rapid economic growth. Critics accused him of stifling
fast-paced announcements of political and economic
dissent and ensuring that his minority Tigray ethnic group
reforms. In his first 100 days, the government released tens
dominated the government and senior security posts.
of thousands of political prisoners, removed terrorist
designations on opposition groups, and closed a notorious
Political space in Ethiopia closed after contested elections
detention facility. He invited former insurgents and exiled
in 2005, following a brief democratic opening in the early
critics to return, replaced top security chiefs, and fired
2000s. Thousands of civic activists, opposition members,
prison officials. The government opened access to over 260
and journalists were arrested in protests over the results.
blocked websites, blogs, and broadcasts. Civil society
Some were convicted on treason charges. The EPRDF later
welcomed the early 2019 passage of the Civil Society
leveraged repressive laws and electoral regulations to
Proclamation, a key reform measure that opened space for
maintain its political advantage, taking 99.6% of seats in
human rights groups and lifted funding restrictions. Abiy’s
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Ethiopia
appointments were unprecedented in terms of gender,
over 760,000 refugees from South Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea,
ethnic, and religious diversity. Half of his cabinet are
and Sudan. U.S. humanitarian aid totaled $495 million in
women, as are Ethiopia’s new president and chief justice.
FY2019 and almost $440 million to date in FY2020.
Abiy pledged a level playing field for the planned 2020
Regional Tensions
elections and named a former opposition leader to lead the
Construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
electoral board. New parties emerged, and others formed
(GERD), Africa’s largest hydroelectric power project, is
new coalitions. In late 2019, Abiy prompted the merger of
nearing completion. It would significantly expand domestic
the EPRDF’s parties and allies into a new Prosperity Party.
power capacity and allow Ethiopia to export electricity. The
The once-dominant TPLF broke away.
project has been a source of national pride, but also a point
The political opening under Abiy has allowed Ethiopians to
of regional tension. Egypt is concerned that the GERD will
vent grievances, but there has also been a rise in hate
limit the Nile’s flow, and has sought international support
speech and militant ethno-nationalism. Ethnic violence has
to press Ethiopia into a comprehensive, binding deal on the
dam’s operation
displaced over three million people since 2017. Some have
. U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin offered
called Abiy’s response insufficient. Others raise concern
to host talks between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan on the
that he will revert to authoritarian tactics to stem unrest.
dam in late 2019. The negotiations stalled in February, with
The assassinations of state officials in the Amhara region
Ethiopia raising concern of U.S. bias. The talks have since
and the head of the military in 2019, and more recent
resumed in the region: they failed to reach a deal before the
tensions in Abiy’s own Oromia region and the capital,
initial reservoir filling began in July, but the discussions
underscore fault lines that could derail the transition.
continue, now under AU auspices. See also CRS Insight
IN11471, The Nile Dam Dispute: Issues for Congress.
In March 2020, officials postponed the August elections,
citing COVID-19 concerns. Most parties accepted the
Ethiopia’s relationship with Eritrea, which seceded from
decision, but called for consultations. In April, the
Ethiopia in 1993, has warmed. An unresolved border war
government declared state of emergency as the pandemic
between the two countries (1998-2000) led the rivals to
worsened. With parliament’s term set to expire at the end of
support proxy forces in the region against each other,
September, some opposition leaders called for a caretaker
including in Somalia. Abiy extended an olive branch in
government to lead Ethiopia through elections. Abiy
June 2018, announcing that Ethiopia would comply with a
dismissed the idea, and parliament has extended its term
peace deal signed in 2000 with Eritrea and cede disputed
“until international health institutions have deemed the
territories; the countries have since moved to restore ties.
threat from coronavirus to be over,” prompting concerns of
an indefinite delay. The TPLF has defiantly declared that
Instability in Somalia is another security concern for
Tigray state will hold its own vote in August.
Ethiopia. It deployed troops there in 2006, with tacit U.S.
backing, to oust a network of Islamist militias that had
Economic and Humanitarian Situation
taken control of Mogadishu. That led to a long campaign
Ethiopia has enjoyed rapid economic growth but has low
against Al Shabaab and other insurgents. Ethiopia joined
per capita income and high unemployment. Development
the U.N.-mandated AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), to
indicators are poor but improving. Agriculture accounts for
which it contributes over 4,000 troops, in 2014. It maintains
70% of employment and a third of GDP.
additional forces in Somalia that are not part of AMISOM.
Ethiopian interests in Somalia are linked to considerations
The EPRDF sought to transform the country’s economy by
regarding its own ethnic Somali population, regional
investing in large-scale infrastructure and electrification
influence, economic opportunities, and possible port access.
projects—with the aim of making Ethiopia a manufacturing
hub—and by leasing agricultural land to foreign investors.
U.S. Policy and Foreign Assistance
Related land deals displaced farmers and remain
Ethiopia’s stability and development have been priorities
controversial. Economic growth followed, but spending
for U.S. engagement, given its size, susceptibility to food
raised the risk of debt distress. Abiy has sought to liberalize
insecurity, and position in a volatile but strategic region.
the economy, opening some sectors and state enterprises to
Joint efforts have sought to alleviate humanitarian crises
foreign investors. He seeks to reduce Ethiopia’s debt to
and endemic poverty, and to counter terrorism and regional
China—which accounts for roughly half its external debt—
instability. Human rights concerns complicated relations
and has secured the rescheduling of some of its loans.
under the EPRDF, and Congress conditioned some U.S. aid.
COVID-19 has hit Ethiopia’s economy hard: the IMF
Ethiopia’s transition has provided an opportunity to deepen
revised its GDP growth forecast from over 7% for 2020 and
ties, including in the context of competition with China.
2021, to 3.2% in 2020 and 4.3% in 2021. The World Bank
The GERD dispute has become a point of friction, however,
has approved over $330 million in financing, while the IMF
raising questions about prospects for an anticipated
is providing $411 million for Ethiopia’s pandemic response.
Millennium Challenge Corporation threshold program and
International Development Finance Corporation plans for
The U.N. estimates that 16.5 million Ethiopians will face
“multi-billion-dollar” investments in Ethiopia.
acute humanitarian needs in 2020, a 136% increase from its
U.S. bilateral aid totaled over $640 million in FY2019,
initial estimate. COVID-19 effects, conflict, a desert locust
supporting health, development, and food programs. The
outbreak, flooding, and inflation exacerbate food insecurity.
Administration seeks roughly $300 million for FY2021, not
Roughly 8.5 million people face crisis levels of acute food
including emergency humanitarian aid and reflecting
insecurity; over 1.7 million are internally displaced.
proposed changes to global food aid programs and cuts to
Ethiopia hosts one of Africa’s largest refugee populations:
health, education, agriculture, and governance support.
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Ethiopia
IF10185

Lauren Ploch Blanchard, Specialist in African Affairs

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https://crsreports.congress.gov | IF10185 · VERSION 15 · UPDATED