U.S. International Trade: Data and Forecasts

U.S. International Trade: Data and Forecasts

Order Code IB96038
CRS Issue Brief for Congress
Received through the CRS Web
U.S. International Trade:
Data and Forecasts
Updated July 5, 2006
Dick K. Nanto and Thomas Lum
Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division
Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress

CONTENTS
SUMMARY
MOST RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
BACKGROUND AND ANALYSIS
U.S. Merchandise Trade Balance
Merchandise Trade Balance in Volume Terms
Current Account Balance
Forecasts
U.S. Bilateral and Sectoral Trade Balances

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U.S. International Trade: Data and Forecasts
SUMMARY
In 2005 the United States incurred a
U.S. exports cheaper and imports more expen-
record merchandise trade deficit of $766
sive. Central banks in countries, such as
billion on a census basis and $783 billion on
China and Japan, however, have intervened in
a balance-of-payments basis (BoP). A surplus
foreign exchange markets to keep the value of
in services trade of $66 billion gave a deficit
their currencies from appreciating signifi-
of $717 billion on goods and services (BoP)
cantly against the dollar.
for the year — up $105 billion or 17.2% from
the $611 billion deficit in 2004.
Trade deficits are a concern for Congress
because they may generate trade friction and
In 2005, U.S. exports of goods and ser-
pressures for the government to do more to
vices totaled $1.275 trillion, compared with
open foreign markets, to shield U.S. producers
$1.152 trillion in 2004 and $1.023 trillion in
from foreign competition, or to assist U.S.
2003. In 2005, U.S. imports were $1.992
industries to become more competitive. As
trillion, compared with $1.763 trillion in 2004,
the deficit increases, the risk also rises of a
and $1.517 trillion (balance of payments
precipitous drop in the value of the dollar and
basis) in 2003. The trade deficit in goods and
disruption in financial markets.
services at $717 billion, was 17% higher than
the $613 billion in 2004. Year-to-date (April
The broadest measure of U.S. interna-
2006), the trade deficit in goods and services
tional economic transactions is the balance on
at $254.2 billion was up $29.1 billion from the
current account. In addition to merchandise
same period in 2005.
trade, it includes trade in services and unilat-
eral transfers. In 2005, the current account
Since 1976, the United States has in-
deficit rose to $791.5 billion from $665.3
curred continual merchandise trade deficits.
billion in 2004. After reaching a peak of
They increased dramatically from $36.4 bil-
$160.7 billion in 1987, the current account
lion in 1982 to a peak in 1987 at $159.6 bil-
deficit fell steadily through 1991, when it
lion. The deficit dropped to $76.9 billion in
attained a surplus of $3.8 billion, before turn-
1991 but rose to $452.4 billion in 2000 and to
ing into deficit again. Higher oil prices and
$782.7 billion in 2005 (Balance-of-payments
more imports are expected to continue to
basis).
worsen the current account deficit in 2006.
Overall U.S. trade deficits reflect a short-
In trade in advanced technology products,
age of savings in the domestic economy and a
the U.S. balance dropped from a surplus of
reliance on capital imports to finance that
$32.2 billion in 1997 to a deficit of $44.4
shortfall. Capital inflows serve to offset the
billion in 2005. In trade in passenger automo-
outflow of dollars used to pay for imports.
biles, the $93 billion U.S. deficit was mainly
Movements in the exchange rate help to bal-
with Canada, Germany, Korea, Japan, and
ance trade. The rising trade deficit (when not
Mexico. In imports of crude oil, major
matched by capital inflows) places downward
sources of the $176 billion in imports were
pressure on the value of the dollar which, in
Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Mexico,
turn, helps to shrink the deficit by making
and Nigeria.
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MOST RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
In 2005, the trade deficit in goods at a record $782.7 billion (BoP basis), was 17.5%
higher than in 2004. The 2005 deficit on goods trade with China was $201.6 billion (Census
basis), with the European Union (EU-15) was $122.4 billion, with Japan was $82.7 billion,
with Canada was $76.5 billion, with Mexico was $50.1 billion, and with the Asian Newly
Industrialized Countries (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan) was $15.9
billion. Merchandise imports of $1,677.4 billion increased by 12% — particularly of crude
oil (up $43.8 billion), capital goods except automotive (up $36.1 billion), automotive
vehicles and parts (up $11.7 billion), and consumer goods (up $34.1 billion). Merchandise
exports of $894.6 billion rose by 11%, particularly of industrial supplies (up $27.8 billion),
capital goods except automotive (up $30.3 billion), automotive vehicles and parts (up $8.5
billion), and consumer goods (up $12.4billion), but this was not enough to narrow the trade
deficit.
Year-to-date (January-April 2006), the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services, at
$254.2 billion, was 12.9% higher compared to the same period in 2005. The year-to-date
deficit on goods trade with China (Census basis) was $56.7 billion, with Japan was $28.1
billion, with OPEC was $26.1 billion, with the European Union was $28.1 billion, with
Canada was $22.1 billion, and with Mexico was $15.1 billion.
For 2005. the trade deficit on goods and services reached another record, $717 billion
or 5.7% of gross domestic product. This upward trend is expected to continue into 2006 (see
forecast) U.S. consumer demand remains strong and continues to pull in imports at a rapid
pace. The rest of the world is not growing fast enough to generate the vigorous export
growth needed to hold the deficit steady — let alone reduce it.
BACKGROUND AND ANALYSIS
Between 1980 and 1987, both the trade and current account deficits increased but then
diminished substantially between 1988 and 1991. As the American economy boomed over
the 1990s and into 2000, these deficits ballooned and became one of the few negatives in an
otherwise upbeat economic picture. Despite eliminating the federal budget deficit from
FY1998-FY2001, the trade deficit side of the so-called twin deficits continued to increase.
The recession of 2001 brought a slight easing of the trade deficit as import demand
slackened, but as the economy has been growing since 2002, the negative balances have
grown dramatically. This issue brief provides historical and current data as well as forecasts
of U.S. trade and current accounts.
U.S. trade balances are macroeconomic variables that may or may not indicate
underlying problems with the competitiveness of particular industries or what some refer to
as the competitiveness of a nation. The reason is that overall trade flows are determined,
within the framework of institutional barriers to trade and the activities of individual
industries, primarily by macroeconomic factors such as rates of growth, savings and
investment behavior (including government budget deficits/surpluses), international capital
flows, and exchange rates.
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Increases in trade deficits may diminish economic growth, since net exports (exports
minus imports) are a component of gross domestic product. In the late 1980s and early
1990s, export growth was an important element in overall U.S. economic growth. In 1999,
merchandise exports accounted for about 8.5% of GDP, compared with 5.9% in 1990.
Recently, however, rising trade deficits have reduced total domestic demand in the economy,
although the deficits have been offset by rising consumer, business, and government demand.
Many economists fear that the rising U.S. trade and current account deficits could lead
to a large drop in the value of the U.S. dollar. The current account deficit now exceeds 5.7%
of GDP and is placing downward pressure on the dollar. If foreign investors stop offsetting
the deficit by buying dollar-denominated assets (in order to balance U.S. inflows and
outflows of dollars), the value of the dollar could drop precipitously. In that case, U.S.
interest rates would have to rise to attract more foreign investment, financial markets could
be disrupted, and inflationary pressures would increase. Foreign investment in dollar assets
along with purchases of securities by central banks of countries such as Japan and China
have been sufficient to keep the value of the dollar from falling too far. These central banks
have intervened regularly in currency markets to keep the value of their currencies relatively
stable with respect to the dollar. (In foreign currency reserves, Japan held $843 billion [end
of May 2006] and China $875 billion [end of March 2006]; in U.S. Treasury securities, as
of April 2006, Japan held $639 billion and China $323 billion.) The Bank of Japan did
intervene extensively by buying dollars in 2003 and early 2004, but apparently has not done
so since early 2004. On July 21, 2005, China announced a 2.1% revaluation of its currency,
but the value of the renminbi has appreciated only slightly since then. In the International
Monetary Fund’s May 2005 consultation with the United States, its directors reiterated their
long-standing concerns about the large U.S. current account deficit. They stated that the
deficit is widely viewed as “unsustainable,” that the U.S. exchange rate likely would have
to adjust, and that there is a risk that an abrupt and disorderly shift in investor preferences
could have a significant adverse effect on interest rates and global capital markets.1
The U.S. government compiles trade data in four different ways. The data on goods
trade are first compiled on a census basis. Bilateral and sectoral data are reported only on
a census basis. The census numbers are then adjusted and reported monthly on a balance of
payments (BoP) basis that includes adjustments for valuation, coverage, and timing and
excludes military transactions. The data are finally reported in terms of national income and
product accounts (NIPA). The NIPA data also include adjustments for inflation to gauge
movement in trade volumes as distinct from trade values. Conceptually, this procedure is
analogous to adjusting macroeconomic data from nominal to real values.
The Census Bureau also reports imports on a c.i.f. (cost-insurance-freight) basis which
includes the value of insurance, international shipping, and other charges incurred in bringing
merchandise to U.S. ports of entry. The customs, or f.a.s. (free-alongside-ship), data do not
include these supplementary costs. The data on imports of goods reported here are on
customs basis with insurance and freight charges counted in U.S. services trade. Other
countries, however, commonly report merchandise import figures that include insurance and
freight charges. This tends to overstate their imports and size of their trade deficit.
1 IMF, 2005 Article IV Consultation with the United States of America. Concluding Statement of
the IMF Mission. May 25, 2005.
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U.S. Merchandise Trade Balance
The merchandise (goods) trade balance is the most widely known and frequently used
indicator of U.S. international economic activity (see Figure 1). In 2005, total U.S.
merchandise trade on a balance of payments basis amounted to $2.67 trillion, with exports
of $895 billion and imports of $1,677 billion. The U.S. merchandise trade deficit rose 17%
in 2005 to $783 billion following a 22% rise in 2004. Prior to 1992, the deficit had
decreased for four consecutive years, from a previous peak of $159.6 billion in 1987 to $76.9
billion in 1991. The increase in the trade deficit in recent years has been due largely to
sluggish demand for U.S. exports and rising demand for imports caused primarily by capital
inflows into the U.S. market, slow economic recoveries in other countries, and faster
economic growth in the United States. As a share of gross domestic product (GDP), the
deficit on goods trade rose from 1.9% in 1990 to 5.1% in 2003 and 6.3% in 2005.
Figure 1. U.S. Merchandise Exports, Imports, Trade
Balance, and Real Effective Dollar Exchange Rate
Index, 1982-2005
$ Billions
Exchange Rate Index
1600
300
1400
Real Effective Dollar
1200
Exchange Rate (Right Scale)
Exports
1000
Imports
200
800
, ,
, ,
, ,
600
,
,
,
,
, ,
, ,
, , , , ,
, , , , , ,
100
400
200
0
0
-200
Trade Balance
-400
-100
-600
-800
-1000
-200
81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
Year
Sources: U.S. Department ofCommerce; IMF. Note: For Exchange Rate, 1995= 100
As for U.S. merchandise exports (as shown in Table 1 and Figure 2), they decreased
in 2001 and 2002 in response to the global slowdown, but they generally have been
increasing each year. The growth of imports has also been steady, although they too fell by
4.4% in 2001 before recovering in 2002. In 2003, import growth was nearly double export
growth, although in 2004, export growth almost caught up with that of imports, and in 2005,
both dropped slightly (11% for exports and 14% for imports). Since U.S. imports are about
88% greater than U.S. exports, exports must grow 88% faster than imports just for the deficit
to remain constant.
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Figure 2. Annual Growth in U.S. Merchandise
Exports and Imports, 1982-2005
Percent
30
25
Import
Growth
20
Export Growth
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
Year
Source: Underlying data from U.S. Department of Commerce
Merchandise Trade Balance in Volume Terms
Like other economic variables, exports and imports, reported in terms of their values,
can change merely because prices change. Trade data, therefore, can be adjusted for inflation
Figure 3. Real U.S. Imports, Exports, and Trade Balance of Goods
(chained 2000 dollars), 1990-2005
$ Billions
2000
1750
U.S. Exports
1500
1250
U.S. Imports
1000
750
500
250
0
-250
-500
-750
Trade Balance
-1000
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
0
1
2
3
4
5
Year
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
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by dividing by a price index to generate real or volume data (some trade commodities
actually are reported in volume terms (e.g., tons of wheat). The real data provide a more
accurate picture of how the underlying flows of merchandise are changing. As with the
nominal trade deficit, the real deficit continues to widen and reached $712 billion in 2005.
As shown in Table 2 and Figure 3, the constant-dollar value, or physical volume, of
merchandise exports increased by 7.3% in 2005, down slightly from 8.8% in 2004 but up
from 2.6% in 2003, -4.5% in 2002, and 6.3% in 2001. The physical volume of imports rose
by 6.9% in 2005, down from 10.8% in 2004 but up from 5.4% in 2003, 3.4% in 2002, and
a fall of 3.6% in 2001. Because the growth of merchandise imports is higher than the growth
of exports and because imports exceed exports by more than 80% on a physical volume
basis, exports would have to grow more than 80% faster than imports just for the U.S. trade
deficit in terms of volume to remain constant. In 2005, export growth actually exceeded
import growth, but the deficit still increased. In recent years, the deficit in volume terms has
varied relative to the deficit in value terms partly because of fluctuations in oil import prices
(when oil prices rise, the deficit in value rises relative to that in volume terms).
Current Account Balance
The current account provides a broader measure of U.S. trade because it includes
services, investment income, and unilateral transfers in addition to merchandise. (See Figure
4) The balance on services includes travel, transportation, fees and royalties, insurance
payments, and other government and private services. The balance on investment income
includes income received on U.S.
assets abroad minus income paid on
Figure 4. U.S. Current Account and
foreign assets in the United States.
Merchandise Trade Balances, 1982-2005
Unilateral transfers are international
$Billions
transfers of funds for which there is
200
no quid pro quo. These include
private gifts, remittances, pension
0
payments, and government grants
-200
(foreign aid). Data on the current
account lag those on trade by several
-400
months.
Current Account Balance
Merchandise Trade
-600
Balance
Table 3 summarizes the
components of the U.S. current
-800
account. In 2005, the U.S. deficit on
current account increased to $791.5
-1000
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5
billion from $665.3 billion in 2004.
Year
In 2006, it is forecast to rise to about
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
$920 billion. As a share of U.S.
GDP, this deficit rose to 5.7% from
4.8% in 2003. Historically, the current account deficit fell from a then record-high $160.7
billion in 1987, to $79.0 billion in 1990, and rose to a $3.7 billion surplus in 1991 (primarily
because of payments to fund the Gulf War by Japan and other nations). However, in 1992,
the current account deficit increased significantly to $48.0 billion and again to $82.0 billion
in 1993 and $118.0 billion in 1994. It rose to $209.6 billion in 1998 and to $413.4 billion
in 2000 or 4.2% of GDP — up from 1.3% in 1990. In 2001, the current account deficit fell
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to $385.7 billion or 3.9% of GDP, but rose again to $475.2 billion in 2002, $527.5 billion
in 2003, $665.3 billion in 2004, and $791.5 billion in 2005.
Since the merchandise trade balance comprises the greater part of the current account,
the two tend to track each other. Unlike the merchandise trade balance, however, the
services account has been in surplus since 1975. In 2005, the United States surplus in its
services trade was $58.0 billion. Since Americans are such large investors in foreign
economies, the United States traditionally has had a surplus in its investment income. This
surplus on income from investments, which reached a high of $36.3 billion in 1983, dropped
to $10.0 billion in 2002, rebounded to $52.4 billion in 2003, $54.1 billion in 2004, and $66.0
billion in 2005. The deficit in unilateral transfers (primarily dollars sent abroad by foreign
workers and recent immigrants) at $86.1 billion in 2005 reflects a rising trend and more than
double the level of the late-1980s. This offsets the U.S. surplus in services.
Figure 5. U.S. Merchandise Trade and Current Account Deficit, 1997-2008
(forecast, in current dollars)
$Billions
200
Actual
Forecast
0
-200
-400
Goods Trade
-600
-800
Current Account
-1000
97
98
99
2000
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: See Table 4.
Year
Forecasts
According to Global Insight, Inc., a leading U.S. economic forecasting firm, in 2006 the
U.S. merchandise (goods) trade deficit is expected to increase to about $866 billion on a
balance-of-payments basis. In 2007, this deficit is expected to rise to $875 billion and then
decline somewhat in 2008 (see Figure 5 and Table 4).
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Figure 6. U.S. Current Account Balance as a Percent of Gross Domestic
Product 1985-2008 (forecast)
Percent
1
Actual
Forecast
0.1
0
-1
-0.8
-1.3
-1.2
-1.5 -1.5 -1.5
-2
-1.8
-1.7
-2.4
-2.4
-3
-2.8
-3.3
-3.2
-3.4
-4
-3.8
-4.2
-4.5
-5
-4.7
-6
-5.7
-6.2
-6.4
-7
-6.7
-6.9
-8
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Year
Source: Data from U.S. Department of Commerce. Forecasts by Global Insight, Inc.
Figure 6 shows the current account balance as a percent of U.S. gross domestic product.
It grew in magnitude from near zero in 1980 to 3.4% in 1987, dropped to about zero in 1991
and rose to 6.4% in 2005 (exceeding the 5% level considered to warrant caution by the
International Monetary Fund). Rising energy costs are expected to push the current account
deficit to about 6.9% of GDP in 2006 before declining slightly.
U.S. Bilateral and Sectoral Trade Balances
The overall U.S. merchandise trade balance consists of deficits or surpluses with all
trading partners. Many economists view this figure as more significant than bilateral trade
balances, since rising deficits with some nations are often offset by declining deficits or
growing surpluses with others. Nonetheless, abnormally large or rapidly increasing trade
deficits with particular countries are often viewed as indicators that underlying problems may
exist with market access, the competitiveness of particular industries, currency misalignment,
or macroeconomic adjustment. Table 5 shows U.S. trade balances with selected nations.
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Figure 7. U.S. Merchandise Trade Balances with Selected Nations, 2005
Country
China
-201
Japan
-82
Canada
-76
Germany
-50
Mexico
-50
Venezuela
-27
Malaysia
-23
Nigeria
-22
Saudi Arabia
-20
Deficit
Italy
-19
Ireland
-19
South Korea
-16
Taiwan
-12
Thailand
-12
United Kingdom
-12
France
-11
Russia
-11
India
-10
Sweden
-10
Singapore
5
Belgium
5
United Arab Emirates
7
Hong Kong
Surplus
7
Australia
8
Netherlands
11
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
$ Billions
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
Most of the U.S. trade deficit can be accounted for by trade with China, Japan, Canada,
Mexico, and Germany. Trade with the oil exporting countries, particularly Venezuela,
Nigeria, and Saudi Arabia, also is in deficit. U.S. trade surpluses occur in trade with the
Netherlands, Australia, Hong Kong, and the United Arab Emirates (see Figure 7). In 2005,
Canada was America’s largest merchandise trading partner, followed by Mexico, China,
Japan, and Germany (China overtook Japan for third place in 2003). Table 6 lists the United
States’ top trading partners ranked by trade turnover (imports plus exports). Trade with
Canada accounts for 20% of total U.S. trade. By far, Canada is the largest supplier of U.S.
imports and the top purchaser of U.S. exports. Trade with Mexico accounts for 12%, and
trade with China at 10% now exceeds that with Japan at 8%.
Table 7 lists the U.S. top deficit trading partners (merchandise trade). In 2000, China
overtook Japan as the top U.S. deficit trading partner. The next highest deficit trading
partners are Japan, Canada, Germany, Mexico, and Venezuela. China disputes U.S. data
which counts Chinese exports that pass through Hong Kong. China shows a trade surplus
with the United States of only $80.3 billion in 2004. Table 8 lists trade balances on goods,
services, and income, net unilateral transfers and current account balances for selected U.S.
trading partners in 2003.
Table 9 shows U.S. trade in advanced technology products. This includes about 500
commodity codes representing products whose technology is from a recognized high
technology field (e.g., biotechnology) or that represent the leading technology in a field. The
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United States long ran a surplus in these products, but that surplus dropped sharply in 2000
and turned into a deficit in 2002. The surplus decreased from $32.2 billion in 1997 to $29.6
billion in 1998, $19.1 billion in 1999, and $5.3 billion in 2000. In 2003, the $27.4 billion
deficit in U.S. trade in advanced technology products was a jump of 65% over 2002. In
2004, the deficit came to $37.0 billion.
Table 10 provides data on trade in passenger cars with major automobile producing
nations for 2003. This does not include foreign cars assembled in the United States. The
United States incurs the largest deficits in this trade with Japan, Canada, Germany, Mexico,
and South Korea.
Table 11 show imports of crude petroleum by major country source. Roughly half
comes from OPEC with Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Nigeria the predominant suppliers.
Half, however, comes from non-OPEC sources, such as Canada, Mexico, and Angola.
Figure 8. U.S. Balances of Trade in Goods and Services by Month, 2005
and 2006 (in current dollars)
$Billions
20
Services 2006
Services 2005
$
$
$
$
0
-20
-40
Goods 2005
-60
$
$
$
$
Goods 2006
-80
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Month
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
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Table 1. U.S. Exports, Imports, and Merchandise Trade Balances,
1982-2005
(billions of U.S. dollars)
Census basis
Balance of payments basis
Exports
Imports
Trade
Exports
Imports
Trade
Year
f.a.s.a
customs b
balance
f.a.s.a
customs b
balance
1982
212.3
243.9
-31.6
211.2
247.6
-36.4
1983
201.7
261.7
-60.0
201.8
268.9
-67.1
1984
218.7
330.5
-111.8
219.9
332.4
-112.5
1985
212.6
336.4
-123.8
215.9
338.1
-122.2
1986
226.4
365.7
-139.3
223.3
368.4
-145.1
1987
253.9
406.3
-152.4
250.2
409.8
-159.6
1988
323.3
441.9
-118.6
320.2
447.2
-127.0
1989
362.9
473.4
-110.5
359.9
477.7
-117.8
1990
392.9
495.2
-102.3
387.4
498.4
-111.0
1991
421.8
487.1
-65.3
414.1
491.0
-76.9
1992
448.2
532.6
-84.4
439.6
536.5
-96.9
1993
464.8
580.5
-115.7
456.9
589.4
-132.5
1994
512.6
663.2
-150.6
502.9
668.7
-165.8
1995
584.7
743.5
-158.8
575.2
749.4
-174.2
1996
625.1
795.3
-170.2
612.1
803.1
-191.0
1997
689.2
869.7
-180.5
678.4
876.5
-198.1
1998
682.1
911.9
-229.8
670.4
917.1
-246.7
1999
695.8
1,024.6
-328.8
684.0
1,030.0
-346.0
2000
781.9
1,218.0
-436.1
772.0
1,224.4
-452.4
2001
730.9
1,142.3
-411.4
718.7
1,145.9
-427.2
2002
693.5
1,163.6
-470.1
681.8
1,164.7
-482.9
2003
724.8
1,257.1
-532.3
713.1
1,260.7
-547.6
2004
818.8
1,469.7
-650.9
807.5
1,472.9
-665.4
2005
906.0
1,673.5
-767.5
894.6
1,677.4
-782.8
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. International Transactions
Accounts Data.
Note: Goods on a Census basis are adjusted to a Balance of Payments basis to include changes in ownership
that occur without goods passing into or out of the customs territory of the United States, to eliminate
duplication, and to value transactions according to a standard definition. Export adjustments include counting
military sales as services not goods, adding private gift parcels, and foreign official gold sales from U.S. private
dealers. Import adjustments include adding in inland freight in Canada, foreign official gold sales to U.S.
private dealers , and subtracting imports by U.S. military agencies.
a. Exports are valued on the f.a.s. basis, which refers to the free-alongside-ship value at the port of export and
generally includes inland freight, insurance, and other charges incurred in placing the goods alongside
the carrier at the port of exportation.
b. Imports are valued as reported by the U.S. Customs Service. (Excludes import duties, the cost of freight,
insurance, and other charges incurred in bringing merchandise to the United States.)
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Table 2. U.S. Merchandise Trade in Volume Terms, 2001-2005
(billions of chained 2000 dollars)
Export
Import
Net
Year
Exports
growth
Imports
growth
exports
2001
736.3
-6.1
1,204.1
-3.2
-467.8
2002
707.0
-4.0
1,248.2
3.7
-541.2
2003
719.7
1.8
1,309.2
4.9
-589.5
2004
783.6
8.9
1,452.7
11.0
-669.1
2005
841.1
7.3
1,553.0
6.9
-711.9
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Products Accounts Table.
Table 3. U.S. Current Account Balances: 1985-2005
(billions of U.S. dollars)
Investment
Net
Current
Calendar
Merchandise
Services
income
unilateral
account
year
trade balance a
balance b
balance c
transfers d
balance e
1985
-122.2
0.3
25.7
-22.0
-118.2
1986
-145.1
6.5
15.5
-24.1
-147.2
1987
-159.6
7.9
14.3
-23.3
-160.7
1988
-127.0
12.4
18.7
-25.3
-121.2
1989
-117.7
24.6
19.8
-26.2
- 99.5
1990
-111.0
30.2
28.6
-26.7
-79.0
1991
-76.9
45.8
24.1
10.8
3.7
1992
-96.9
57.8
24.2
-33.1
-48.0
1993
-132.5
62.3
25.3
-37.1
-82.0
1994
-165.8
67.4
17.1
-36.8
-118.0
1995
-174.2
77.9
20.9
-34.1
-109.5
1996
-191.0
87.1
22.3
-38.6
-120.2
1997
-198.1
89.8
12.6
-45.2
-140.9
1998
-246.7
81.7
4.3
-53.2
-214.9
1999
-346.0
82.6
13.9
-50.6
-300.1
2000
-452.4
74.1
21.0
-58.8
-416.4
2001
-427.2
64.5
25.2
-51.9
-389.4
2002
-482.9
61.1
10.0
-64.0
-475.2
2003
-547.3
52.5
46.3
-71.2
-519.7
2004
-665.3
54.1
27.6
-81.6
-665.3
2005
-782.7
66.0
11.3
-86.1
-791.5
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. International Transactions. On Internet at
[http://www.bea.gov/bea/international/bp_web/list.cfm?anon=71].
a. On a balance-of-payments basis.
b. Includes travel, transportation, fees and royalties, insurance payments, other government and private
services, and investment income.
c. Income receipts on U.S. assets abroad minus income payments on foreign assets in the United States.
d. International transfers of funds, such as private gifts, pension payments, and government grants for which
there is no quid pro quo.
e. The trade balance plus the service balance plus investment income balance plus net unilateral transfers,
although conceptually equal to the current account balance, may differ slightly as a result of rounding.
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Table 4. U.S. Merchandise and Current Account Trade
2002 to 2008 (forecast)
(billions of U.S. dollars)
Forecast
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Merchandise Trade
Exports
Actual
682.4
713.4
807.5
894.6
—
—
—
Global Insight
—
—
—
—
1,030.2
1,133.0
1,238.9
Imports
Actual
1164.7
1260.7
1472.9
1,677.4
—
—
Global Insight
—
—
—
—
1,905.2
2,013.4
2,108.9
Trade Balance
Actual
-482.3
-547.3
-665.4
-782.7
—
—
—
Global Insight
—
—
—
—
-855.2
-860.7
-850.6
Services Trade Balance
Actual
61.1
52.5
54.1
66.0
—
—
—
Global Insight
—
—
—
—
58.5
84.5
111.1
Current Account Balance
Actual
-475.2
-519.7
-665.3
-791.5
—
—
Global Insight
—
—
—
-919.7
-926.5
-901.8
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, December 2005; Global Insight, Interim Annual Forecast, April
2006. All actual figures on a balance-of-payments basis.
Note. Global Insight was created through the 2002 merger of Standard & Poor’s Data Resources Inc. (DRI)
and Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (WEFA).
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Table 5. U.S. Merchandise Trade Balances with Selected Nations:
2000-2005
(millions of U.S. dollars, census basis)
Country
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Total
-411,389
-470,104
-535,699
-651,521
-766,561
North America
-83,190
-86,920
-95,012
-110,832
-126,671
Canada
-53,266
-49,760
-54,396
-65,765
-76,522
Mexico
-29,924
-37,202
-40,616
-45,068
-50,149
Western Europe
-63,985
-89,218
-101,325
-114,077
-144,065
European Union
-60,856
-82,368
-94,262
-104,510
-122,427
United Kingdom
-599
-7,617
-8,772
-10,442
-12,435
Germany
-29,037
-35,852
-39,199
-45,855
-50,663
France
-10,400
-9,389
-12,153
-10,574
-11,445
Italy
-13,908
-14,201
-14,867
-17,378
-19,496
Netherlands
10,024
8,471
9,731
11,682
11,634
Russia
-3,548
-4,473
-6,170
-8,930
-11,336
Pacific Rim Countries
-194,393
-215,005
-229,968
-282,534
-328,567
Japan
-68,962
-70,055
-65,965
-75,194
-82,682
China
-83,045
-103,115
-123,961
-161,978
-201,626
Newly Industrialized
-21,093
-22,073
-20,867
-21,925
-15,939
Countries (NICS)
Singapore
2,712
1,429
1,418
4,295
5,529
Hong Kong
4,423
3,283
4,692
6,496
7,429
Taiwan
-15,240
-13,805
-14,122
-12,886
-12,788
Republic of Korea
-12,988
-12,979
-12,865
-19,829
-16,109
South/Central American
-38,982
-17,902
-26,821
-37,323
-50,691
Countries
Argentina
913
-1,595
-734
-359
-472
Brazil
1,466
-3,403
-6,666
-7,294
-9,091
Colombia
-2,091
-2,018
-2,631
-2,785
-3,431
OPEC
-39,688
-34,482
-51,037
-71,867
-92,732
Venezuela
-9,552
-10,662
-14,305
-20,181
-27,556
Indonesia -7,605
-7,063
-7,000
-8,142
-8,971
Saudi Arabia
-7,363
-8,364
-13,473
-15,678
-20,398
Nigeria
-7,829
-4,907
-9,365
-14,694
-22,573
Sources: United States Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics. For other countries and further detail, see
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, December 2005, FT 900 (05-12), released February 10, 2006.
Note: Trade Balance equals Total Exports (f.a.s. value) minus General Imports (Customs value).
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Table 6. Top U.S. Trading Partners Ranked by Total Merchandise
Trade in 2005
(Billions of U.S. dollars, customs basis)
U.S.
Rank
Country/group
Balance
Exports
U.S. Imports
Total trade
—
Total, all countries
-766.4
904.4
1,670.7
2,575.1
—
Total, top 15
-601.5
653.1 1,254.6
1,907.6
countries
1
Canada
-76.6
211.3 287.9
499.2
2
Mexico
-50.2
120 170.2
290.2
3
China
-201.7
41.8 243.5
285.3
4
Japan
-82.7
55.4 138.1
193.5
5
Germany
-50.7
34.1 84.8
119.0
6
United Kingdom
-12.5
38.6
51.1
89.7
7
Korea, South
-16.1
27.7
43.8
71.4
8
Taiwan
-12.8
22.0 34.8
56.9
9
France
-11.4
22.4 33.8
56.2
10
Malaysia
-23.3
10.5 33.7
44.2
11
Italy
-19.5
11.5 31.0
42.5
12
Netherlands
11.6
26.5 14.9
41.4
13
Venezuela
-27.6
6.4 34.0
40.4
14
Brazil
-9.1
15.3 24.4
39.8
15
Ireland
-19.3
9.3 28.6
38.0
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
Note: Data are on a census basis. Imports are on a Customs basis.
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Table 7. Top U.S. Merchandise Deficit Trading Partners, 2005
(Billions of U.S. Dollars)
Balance
Exports
Imports
Total census basis
-766.8
904.3
1,671.1
China
-201.6
41.8
243.5
Japan
-82.7
55.4
138.1
Canada
-76.5
211.3
287.9
Germany
-50.7
34.1
84.8
Mexico
-50.1
120.0
170.2
Venezuela
-27.6
6.4
34.0
Malaysia
-23.3
10.5
33.7
Nigeria
-22.6
1.6
24.2
Saudi Arabia
-20.4
6.8
27.2
Italy
-19.5
11.5
31.0
Ireland
-19.3
9.3
28.6
Korea
-16.1
27.7
43.8
Taiwan
-12.8
22.1
34.8
Thailand
-12.7
7.2
19.9
United Kingdom
-12.4
38.6
51.1
France
-11.4
22.4
33.8
Russia
-11.3
3.9
15.3
India
-10.8
8.0
18.8
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
Note: Data are on a census basis. Imports are on a Customs basis.
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Table 8. U.S. Current Account Balances With
Selected U.S. Trading Partners, 2005
(billions of U.S. dollars)
Investment
Net
Current
Merchandise
Services
income
unilateral
account
Country
trade balance a
balance b
balance c
transfers d
balance e
All Countries
-781.6
58.0
1.6
-82.9
-804.9
Mexico
-51.5 6.0
0.3
-10.5
-55.6
Canada
-79.3
11.7
20.2
-0.3
-47.7
Japan
-84.8
18.1
-33.0
0.5
-99.2
European Union
-124.6
10.0
-32.5
1.3
-145.9
Other Asia/Africa
-376.4
12.8
1.5
-40.7
-402.8
Latin America
-102.5
1.7
12.3
-26.7
-115.3
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, International Transactions Account Data
a. On a balance-of-payments basis.
b. Includes travel, transportation, fees and royalties, insurance payments, other government and private
services, and investment income.
c. Income receipts on U.S. assets abroad minus income payments on foreign assets in the United States.
d. International transfers of funds, such as private gifts, pension payments, and government grants for which
there is no quid pro quo.
e. The trade balance plus the service balance plus investment income balance plus net unilateral transfers,
although conceptually equal to the current account balance, may differ as a result of rounding errors.
Table 9. U.S. Trade in Advanced Technology Products
(billions of U.S. dollars)
Year
U.S. Exports
U.S. Imports
Trade balance
1990
93.4
59.3
34.1
1995
138.4
124.8
13.6
1996
154.9
130.4
24.5
1997
179.5
147.3
32.2
1998
186.4
156.8
29.6
1999
200.3
181.2
19.1
2000
227.4
222.1
5.3
2001
200.1
195.3
4.8
2002
178.6
195.2
-16.6
2003
180.2
207.0
-26.8
2004
201.4
238.3
-36.9
2005
215.6
260.0
-44.4
March 2006
22.9
25.3
-2.4
April 2006
19.8
21.5
-1.7
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services. FT-900, issued monthly.
Includes about 500 of some 22,000 commodity classification codes that meet the following criteria: (1)
contains products whose technology is from a recognized high technology field (e.g., biotechnology), (2)
represent leading edge technology in that field, and (3) constitute a significant part of all items covered in the
selected classification code.
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Table 10. U.S. Trade in Passenger Automobiles by
Selected Countries, 2005
(millions of U.S. dollars)
Trading Partner
U.S. Exports
U.S. Imports
Trade Balance
Total World
30,410
123,644
-93,234
Canada
12,038
36,330
-24,292
Germany
3,701
20,308
-16,607
Korea
115
8,769
-8,654
Japan
536
35,139
-34,603
Mexico
3,374
10,826
-7,452
United Kingdom
844
5,701
-4,857
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, FT-900, issued monthly.
Table 11. U.S. Imports of Crude Oil by Selected Countries, 2005
(Quantity and Customs Value)
Quantity
Customs value
Country
(Thousand barrels)
($million)
Total World
3,753,088
175,563
OPEC Total
1,818,357
88,303
Saudi Arabia
524,129
24,739
Venezuela
535,718
24,074
Nigeria
396,918
21,904
Kuwait
80,396
3,702
Algeria
82,383
4,670
Other OPEC
198,813
9,214
Non-OPEC Total
1,934,732
87,260
Canada
567,676
24,148
Mexico
552,076
23,096
Angola
161,507
8,161
Ecuador
99,128
4,223
Norway
43,107
1,947
Gabon
55,792
2,759
Other Non-OPEC
455,446
22,926
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, FT-900, issued monthly.
CRS-17