Lebanon

Lebanon

Order Code IB89118
CRS Issue Brief for Congress
Received through the CRS Web
Lebanon
Updated June 8, 2006
Alfred B. Prados
Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division
Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress

CONTENTS
SUMMARY
MOST RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
BACKGROUND AND ANALYSIS
Lebanon: Demography and Politics
Political Profile
Sectarianism
Political Structure and Power Sharing
The Civil War and Taif Reforms
Political Upheaval of 2005
Assassination of Former Prime Minister
Resolution 1595
The Mehlis Report
Resolution 1636
Possible Credibility Issue
More Violence
The Mehlis Follow-On Report
Resolutions 1644 and 1664
Brammertz Progress Report
Other Recent Activity
Elections of 2005 and Aftermath
Deadlock and Potential Realignments
National Dialogue
Recent or Current Foreign Presence in Lebanon
Syria
Resolution 1680 and Related Activity
Israel
The Shib’a Farms
U.S.-Lebanese Relations
U.S. Policy Toward Lebanon
Role of Congress
Recent and Current U.S. Assistance to Lebanon

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Lebanon
SUMMARY
The United States and Lebanon continue
President on October 15, 1998, and extended
to enjoy good relations. Prominent current
his term for three years by a constitutional
issues between the United States and Lebanon
amendment in September 2004. The assassi-
include progress toward a Lebanon-Israel
nation of former Lebanese Prime Minister
peace treaty, U.S. aid to Lebanon, and Leba-
Rafiq Hariri, who opposed Lahoud’s exten-
non’s capacity to stop Hizballah militia at-
sion, sparked a political crisis, realignments in
tacks on Israel. The United States supports
Lebanon’s domestic politics, and withdrawal
Lebanon’s independence and favored the end
of Syrian troops from Lebanon. Since June
of Israeli and Syrian occupation of parts of
2005, an independent U.N. commission has
Lebanon. Israel withdrew from southern
been investigating the circumstances of
Lebanon on May 23, 2000, and Syria com-
Hariri’s assassination, amid allegations of
pleted withdrawing its forces on April 26,
Syrian involvement, directly or through pro-
2005. Lebanon is rebuilding after the
Syrian Lebanese officials.
1975-1990 civil war.
The United States welcomed the forma-
Lebanon’s government is based in part
tion of a new Lebanese government following
on a 1943 agreement that called for a
the withdrawal of Syrian forces. After meet-
Maronite Christian President, a Sunni Muslim
ing with President Bush in Washington on
Prime Minister, and a Shi’ite Muslim Speaker
April 18, 2006, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora
of the National Assembly, and stipulated that
said in an interview with that he asked Presi-
the National Assembly seats and civil service
dent Bush for three things: to empower the
jobs be distributed according to a ratio of 6
Lebanese government politically through
Christians to 5 Muslims. On August 21, 1990,
restoration of all its territories (including the
the Lebanon National Assembly adopted the
disputed Shib’a Farms area), to help build the
“Taif” reforms (named after the Saudi Arabian
capabilities of Lebanon’s armed forces and
city where they were negotiated). The parlia-
security forces, and to empower the govern-
ment was increased to 128 to be divided
ment economically. The conference report on
evenly between Christians and Muslim-Druze,
the Foreign Operations Appropriations Act for
presidential authority was decreased, and the
FY2006, H.R. 3057, signed by the President
Speaker’s and the Prime Minister’s authority
on November 14, 2005, as P.L. 109-102,
was increased. President Ilyas Hirawi signed
contains $40 million in Economic Support
the constitutional amendment implementing
Funds for Lebanon in FY2006.
the reforms on September 21, 1990.
Other CRS reports on Lebanon include
Since the civil war, Lebanon has held
CRS Issue Brief IB92075, Syria: U.S. Rela-
elections for the National Assembly in 1992,
tions and Bilateral Issues, by Alfred B.
1996, 2000, and, most recently, 2005. The
Prados.
National Assembly elected Emile Lahoud
Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress

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MOST RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
According to news reports, the Lebanese government has requested an extension of the
mandate of the U.N. commission investigating the assassination of former Lebanese Prime
Minister Rafiq Hariri.1 During testimony on May 25, 2006, before the Senate Foreign
Relations Committee, Ambassador Bolton said that “[w]e continue to support Commissioner
Serge Brammertz’ ongoing investigation of this terrorist act, and will support an extension”
of the Commission’s mandate when its mandate expires on June 15.
Meanwhile on May 17, 2006, the U.N. Security Council adopted Resolution 1680 as
a follow-up to a previous resolution (1559) that had called among other things for withdrawal
of Syrian troops from Lebanon and for disarming militias in Lebanon. Resolution 1680
noted that some provisions of 1559 had been carried out but others had not, notably the
disarmament of militias. The resolution calls on Syria to prevent movement of arms into
Lebanon, “strongly encourages” Syria to respond positively to the request by Lebanon to
delineate their common border and establish full diplomatic relations, and calls for the
disbandment of all militias inside Lebanon.
BACKGROUND AND ANALYSIS
Lebanon: Demography and Politics
Political Profile
Sectarianism. Lebanon, with a population of 3.8 million, has the most religiously
diverse society in the Middle East, comprising 17 recognized religious sects.
“Confessionalism,” or the distribution of governmental posts by religious sect, is a long-
standing feature of Lebanese political life, despite frequent calls to abolish it. Because of
political sensitivities related to power sharing among the various communities, no census has
been taken in Lebanon since 1932, when Lebanon was under a French mandate. According
to current estimates by the Central Intelligence Agency as of 2005, Muslim groups comprise
59.7% of the population while Christian groups comprise 39.0%, with another 1.3%of
assorted religious affiliations. A more detailed but less recent estimate by an expert on the
geography and demography of the Middle East gives the following breakdown:2
1 “Lebanon Wants Extension Of UN Hariri Murder Investigation,” Dow Jones Newswires, May 2,
2006.
2 Colbert C. Held, Middle East Patterns, Westview Press, 2000, p. 262. Reflecting 1999 figures,
Held uses an estimated total Lebanese population of 3.506 million, to which he applies the above
percentages.
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Table 1. Lebanon Population and Religious Sects
Sect
Number
Percent
Shi’ite Muslim
1,192,000
34%
Sunni Muslim
701,000
20%
Maronite Christiana
666,000
19%
Druzeb
280,000
8%
Greek Orthodox (Christian)
210,000
6%
Armenian (Christian)c
210,000
6%
Greek Catholic (Christian)a
175,000
5%
Other
70,000
2%
Total (not exact, due to rounding)
3,506,000
100%
a. Affiliated with the Roman Catholic Church but retain their own rituals.
b. Grouped with Muslims; regarded by some as derived from Shi’ite Islam.
c. Armenians are the only sizeable ethnic minority in Lebanon; other
Lebanese groups are all ethnic Arab.
Lebanese groups have developed political parties along religious, geographical, ethnic,
and ideological lines and are often associated with prestigious families. Christian groups,
especially Maronites, tend to be strong advocates of Lebanese independence and opposed to
Syrian and other external influences. Christian parties include the Phalange led by the
Gemayel family, and smaller parties led by the Chamoun, Frangieh, and Iddi families. Sunni
Muslim parties, historically more Arab nationalist in orientation, include the Independent
Nasirite group and a new group, the Futures Party, that has coalesced around anti-Syrian
supporters of the recently assassinated Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. Shi’ite parties include
the more moderate Amal under Nabih Berri and the more radical Hizballah (see below),
former rivals but now at least temporarily allied; Druze are largely associated with the
Progressive Socialist Party led by the leftist yet feudally based Jumblatt family, now
somewhat tenuously aligned with the Futures Party. A religiously mixed group, the Syrian
National Social Party (SNSP), favors a union of Syria, Lebanon, and possibly other nearby
states. Several of these parties and groupings formerly maintained militias, notably the
Lebanese Forces, which were affiliated with the Christian Phalange Party, and Hizballah,
which has both a political and a military wing. Most of the militias were disbanded after the
civil war and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea was jailed (he has just been amnestied),
but Hizballah’s militia continues to function.
Political Structure and Power Sharing. Post-civil war Lebanon retains the
country’s unique political system, based on power sharing among the diverse religious
sectarian communities and political factions that comprise the modern Lebanese state. Under
the constitution of 1926, Lebanon is a republic with a president elected by parliament for a
non-renewable six-year term, a prime minister and cabinet appointed by the president, and
a parliament, elected by universal adult suffrage for a four-year term. Composition of
parliament varies in accordance with electoral laws that are promulgated before each
election; current membership is 128. Unlike the President, the prime minister and cabinet
must receive a vote of confidence from parliament.
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In 1943, when Lebanon became fully independent from France, leaders of the principal
religious communities adopted an unwritten agreement known as the National Covenant,
which provided that the President be a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni
Muslim, and the Speaker of Parliament a Shi’ite Muslim; parliamentary seats were divided
on the basis of six Christians to five Muslims. Cabinet posts are generally distributed among
the principal sectarian communities, notably Maronites, Greek Orthodox, smaller Christian
sects, Druze (a small sect associated with Islam), Sunni Muslims, and Shi’ite Muslims. As
time passed, the 1943 ratios, which had been based on the country’s sole census conducted
in 1932, became less reflective of Lebanese society as Muslims gradually came to outnumber
Christians, while within the Muslim community, Shi’ite Muslims came to outnumber Sunni
Muslims. Discontent over power sharing imbalances was a major factor in inter-communal
tensions and civil strife culminating in the 1975-1990 civil war.
The Civil War and Taif Reforms. At stake in the civil war was control over the
political process in Lebanon, the status of Palestinian refugees and militia, and the respective
goals of Syria and Israel (see the section below on Foreign Presence in Lebanon). From 1975
to 1990, the civil war killed, wounded, or disabled hundreds of thousands and rendered
comparable numbers homeless at one time or another during the fighting. At one point, a
terror bombing in October 1983 killed 241 U.S. armed forces personnel, who were part of
a short-lived multinational force attempting to keep peace among Palestinian refugees and
Lebanese factions. From 1987 until July 1997, the United States banned travel to Lebanon
because of the threat of kidnaping and dangers from the ongoing civil war. Lebanon
continues to rebuild in the aftermath of the civil war.
The Lebanese parliament elected in 1972 remained in office for 20 years, since it was
impossible to elect a new parliament during the civil war. After a prolonged political crisis
near the end of the war, Lebanese parliamentary deputies met in 1989 in Taif, Saudi Arabia,
under the auspices of the Arab League and adopted a revised power sharing agreement. The
so-called Taif Agreement raised the number of seats in parliament from 99 to 108 (later
changed to 128), replaced the former 6:5 ratio of Christians to Muslims in parliament with
an even ratio, provided for a proportional distribution of seats among the various Christian
and Muslim sub-sects, and left appointment of the prime minister to parliament, subject to
the president’s approval. It also addressed the status of Syrian forces in Lebanon, as
explained in a section below. Parliamentary elections held in 1992, 1996, and 2000 resulted
in pro-Syrian majorities, given the presence and influence of Syrian forces in Lebanon
ostensibly as part of a peacekeeping force. Though supported by some Lebanese, including
many Shi’ite Muslims, the Syrian presence was increasingly resented by other elements of
the Lebanese population.
Political Upheaval of 2005
Assassination of Former Prime Minister. By 2004, tensions had increased
between the pro-Syrian Lebanese President Emile Lahoud and the independent Prime
Minister Rafiq Hariri, a self-made billionaire who had spearheaded the reconstruction of
Lebanon after the civil war. Matters came to a head when the Lebanese parliament,
apparently under Syrian pressure, adopted a Syrian-backed constitutional amendment
extending President Lahoud’s tenure by an additional three years. Hariri, who disagreed with
the move, resigned in October 2004, and subsequently aligned himself with an anti-Syrian
opposition coalition. Hariri’s assassination in a car bombing on February 14, 2005, blamed
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by many on Syrian agents, led to widespread protests by an anti-Syrian coalition comprising
many members of the Christian, Druze, and Sunni Muslim communities and counter-
demonstrations by pro-Syrian groups including Shi’ites who rallied behind the Hizballah and
Amal parties. Outside Lebanon, the United States and France were particularly vocal in their
denunciation of the assassination and a possible Syrian role in it.
Resolution 1595. A statement by the President of the U.N. Security Council on
February 25, although it did not mention Syria by name, condemned the assassination and
requested the Secretary General “to report urgently on the circumstances, causes and
consequences of this terrorist act.” In accordance with this request, a U.N. fact-finding team
visited Lebanon and concluded that “the Lebanese investigation process suffers from serious
flaws and has neither the capacity nor the commitment to reach a satisfactory and credible
conclusion.”
On April 7, as domestic and international outrage mounted, the U.N. Security Council
adopted Resolution 1595, under which the council decided to “establish an international
independent investigation Commission (‘the Commission’ or UNIIIC) based in Lebanon to
assist the Lebanese authorities in their investigation of all aspects of this terrorist act,
including to help identify its perpetrators, sponsors, organizers and accomplices.” Heading
the Commission was Detlev Mehlis, described as “a 25-year veteran of the Berlin
prosecutor’s office with a record of solving high profile terror cases.”3 The resolution
requested the Commission to complete its work within three months from the date it
commences operations, authorizes the Secretary General to extend the Commission’s
mandate for another period of up to three months, and requests an oral update every two
months while the Commission is functioning. The U.N. Secretary General informed
members of the Security Council that the Commission was fully operational as of June 16,
2005. On September 8, 2005, the Commission requested a 40-day extension to complete its
work. Upon submission of the Commission’s initial report on October 19, the Secretary
General extended its mandate until December 15 to enable the Commission to pursue further
gaps it had identified (see “The Mehlis Commission,” below).4 On August 30, a U.N.
spokeswoman announced that three former heads of Lebanese intelligence agencies and a
former Lebanese member of parliament had been identified as suspects in the assassination
of Hariri. A subsequent press report describes the suspects as Syrian proxies with close ties
to President Lahoud.5
The Mehlis Report. Tensions mounted as reports circulated that Syrian and Lebanese
officials would be implicated in the findings of the Mehlis Commission. After encountering
3 Warren Hoge, “Bush Pushes U.N. to Move Swiftly on Syria Report,” New York Times, Oct. 22,
2005.
4 In its operative paragraph 1, Resolution 1595 “Decides ... to establish an international independent
investigation Commission (“the Commission”) based in Lebanon to assist the Lebanese authorities
in their investigation of all aspects of this terrorist act ...” The resolution requests that the
commission complete its work within three months from commencement of operations. The U.N.
subsequently announced that the Commission began its operations on June 16, 2005.
5 Hassan M. Fatah, “Lebanon’s President Facing Growing Pressure to Resign,” New York Times,
Sept. 6, 2005. The press report lists the four as the current head of security, the former head of
security, a former military intelligence chief, and a former chief of police.
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initial resistance from Syria, from September 20-23, members of the commission visited
Damascus, where they interviewed senior Syrian military and security officials including the
last two Syrian chiefs of intelligence in Lebanon, who were widely regarded as the effective
viceroys of Lebanon during their respective tenures: Generals Rustom Ghazali and Ghazi
Kanaan. Kanaan, who was reassigned to Syria in 2002 and appointed minister of the interior
apparently committed suicide in October 2005. Some observers speculate that Kanaan was
killed or forced to commit suicide by Syrian authorities because of what he might reveal —
or might have revealed — about Syrian involvement in the Hariri assassination or that he
chose to take his own life because he feared that he would become the scapegoat for Syrian
actions in Lebanon. In actuality, however, Kanaan is not mentioned in the Commission’s
report of October 19 (see below).
The 54-page report submitted by the Mehlis Commission represented four months of
research in which Commission members interviewed more than 400 persons and reviewed
60,000 documents, identified several suspects, and established various leads. Two central
conclusions reached by the Commission deal with the question of culpability, although they
do not constitute a conclusive finding:
It is the Commission’s view that the assassination on 14 February 2005 was carried out
by a group with an extensive organization and considerable resources and capabilities.
...there is converging evidence pointing at both Lebanese and Syrian involvement in this
terrorist act.... Given the infiltration of Lebanese institutions and society by the Syrian
and Lebanese intelligence services working in tandem, it would be difficult to envisage
a scenario whereby such a complex assassination plot could have been carried out
without their knowledge.
The Commission report adds that the investigation is not complete and calls for further
investigation; states that Syrian authorities, including the foreign minister, while extending
limited cooperation, have provided some false or inaccurate information; and calls on Syria
to help clarify unresolved questions. Syrian officials, including President Bashar al-Asad,
have denied complicity in the Hariri assassination and said the Mehlis report was biased. On
October 29, President Asad said Syria has set up a commission to investigate the
assassination.6
Questions have been raised regarding the apparent exclusions in the report of the names
of suspects who had been identified in earlier drafts of the report. The principal example
appears in Paragraph 96 (page 29) of the report, in which a witness told the Commission that
in September 2004 “senior Lebanese and Syrian officials decided to assassinate Rafik Hariri”
and held several follow-up meetings in Syria to plan the crime. An earlier version reportedly
listed the names of five of the senior officers, including President Asad’s brother Maher al-
Asad and the President’s brother-in-law Asif Shawkat, chief of military intelligence and
widely considered the second most powerful official in the regime. Some reporters
questioned whether or not the Commission chief Detlev Mehlis had come under pressure to
make the report less accusatory. At a news conference on October 21, both Mehlis and
Secretary-General Kofi Annan denied this; Mehlis went on to explain that he suppressed the
6 Warren Hoge and Steven R. Weisman, “U.N. Is Expected to Pass Measure Pressuring Syria,” New
York Times, Oct. 31, 2005.
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names of the officers when he found out that the Commission’s report was to be made
public, because he had only one anonymous source for the specific accusation.7 Maher al-
Asad does not appear at all in the official copy of the report and Asif Shawkat appears only
once (paragraph 178) when Shawkat allegedly forced an individual 45 days before the
assassination to make a tape claiming responsibility for the crime, purportedly in an effort
to hide Syrian or Lebanese complicity.
Resolution 1636. On October 31, 2005, the U.N. Security Council unanimously
adopted Resolution 1636, which requires Syria to cooperate “fully and unconditionally” with
the Mehlis investigation into the assassination of the late Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq
Hariri or face unspecified “further action.” By dropping a threat appearing in earlier drafts
of specific economic sanctions, the sponsors of the resolution were able to attract support
from Russia and China while leaving the door open to the imposition of sanctions at a later
date. U.S. officials noted that the resolution was adopted under Chapter VII of the U.N.
Charter, which gives the Council power to impose penalties, including use of military force.8
After temporizing, Syria acceded to a request by the Mehlis Commission to make five Syrian
officials available for questioning by the commission at U.N. offices in Vienna, Austria. The
Syrians, whose names were not announced, were reportedly intelligence and security officials
including the former Syrian intelligence chief in Lebanon Rustom Ghazali; meetings took
place from December 5 to 7.
Possible Credibility Issue. In a related development, on November 28 a former key
witness questioned by the Mehlis Commission stated on Syrian TV that he had provided
false testimony to the commission after having been kidnapped, tortured, injected with drugs,
and offered a $1.3 million bribe by Lebanese officials who wanted him to implicate Syrian
intelligence in the murder of Hariri. The witness, Hussam Tahir Hussam, describes himself
as a Syrian intelligence agent. Mehlis and Lebanese officials have expressed doubts
regarding his statement. Two other Syrian government employees have said another former
witness, like Hussam, would soon recant his original testimony before the commission, in
what some commentators think may be a Syrian-instigated campaign to undercut the
credibility of the Mehlis report.9
More Violence. On December 12, 2005, a car bomb killed Gibran Tueni, a prominent
Lebanese journalist and newly elected member of the Lebanese parliament, who had often
criticized Syria’s role in Lebanon. Several anti-Syrian Lebanese politicians have blamed
Syria, which in turn denied complicity and said the crime was aimed at directing fresh
accusations against Syria. Commentators note that the explosion occurred only a few hours
before the U.N. investigating commission was due to submit an update of its report on the
Hariri assassination to U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan. Other anti-Syrian Lebanese
victims of recent major attacks or assassinations include journalists Samir Kassir (June 2,
2005) and Mai Chidiac (September 25, 2005) and politician George Hawi (June 21, 2005).
Of these, Chidiac was critically injured and the others were killed.
7 Warren Hoge, “Bush Pushes U.N. to Move Swiftly on Syria Report,” New York Times, Oct. 22,
2005.
8 Warren Hoge, “U.N. Tells Syria to Stop Impeding Slaying Inquiry,” New York Times, Nov. 1, 2005.
9 Michael Slackman, “Syria Attacks Evidence as U.N. Case Turns More Bizarre,” New York Times,
Dec. 7, 2005.
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The Mehlis Follow-On Report. On December 12, the Mehlis commission
submitted a follow-on report which states that “[t]he Commission’s conclusions set out in
its previous report ... remain valid.” According to the follow-on report, the Commission
interviewed additional witnesses (for a total of 500 as of December 12), identified 19
suspects (reportedly including the five Syrian officers interviewed in Vienna), and reviewed
additional documentation. Statements by two of the suspects indicated that all Syrian
intelligence documents concerning Lebanon had been burned. Also, the head of a separate
Syrian investigative commission informed the Mehlis Commission that no material regarding
the Hariri assassination had been found in Syrian archives. The Mehlis follow-on report
further expresses the view that Hussam, the witness who recanted his statement, “is being
manipulated by the Syrian authorities.” Analysts are reportedly reviewing the material in an
attempt to find material relevant to planning for the assassination. The report stated that
“[t]he detailed information [from the additional statements and documents reviewed by the
commission] points directly at perpetrators, sponsors and organizers of an organized
operation aiming at killing Mr. Hariri, including the recruitment of special agents by the
Lebanese and Syrian intelligence services.” The report recommended that the commission
be extended by an additional six months.
Resolutions 1644 and 1664. On December 15, 2005, the U.N. Security Council
adopted Resolution 1644, which extended the mandate of the Independent Commission for
six months until June 15, 2006, as recommended by the Commission, and requested the
Commission to report on its progress at three-month intervals. The Council acknowledged
a Lebanese request that suspects be tried by “a tribunal of an international character” and
asked the Secretary General to help the Lebanese government identify the nature of such a
tribunal (Paragraph 6). The Council also requested the Secretary General to present
recommendations to expand the Commission’s mandate to include investigations of other
attacks on Lebanese figures (Paragraph 7). In a subsequent Resolution 1664 adopted on
March 29, 2006, the Council requested the Secretary General to negotiate an agreement with
the government of Lebanon aimed at establishing the requested tribunal. Meanwhile, Mehlis,
who wanted to return to his post in Germany, stepped down as Commission chairman in
early January 2006 and was replaced by Serge Brammertz, a Belgian prosecutor serving with
the International Criminal Court.
Brammertz Progress Report. On March 14, 2006, Brammertz released his first
progress report to the U.N. Security Council. The 25-page document, described by one
commentator as more conservative and less detailed than the Mehlis reports (New York
Times, March 15, 2006), stated that “[t]he individuals who perpetrated this crime appear to
be very ‘professional’ in their approach” and went on to say that “[i]t must be assumed that
at least some of those involved were likely experienced in this type of terrorist activity”
(Paragraph 33 of the Brammertz report). Syrian spokesmen put a positive interpretation on
the report, saying that it “was realistic and has a lot of professionalism.” President Asad,
who had temporized for several months over the Commission’s demand for an interview,
agreed to meet Brammertz under a deal that will give the Commission access to individuals,
sites, and information, including the head of state (Paragraphs 91-95). Pursuant to these
understandings, news media reported that Brammertz met with the Syrian president and vice
president in Damascus on April 25; however, the news reports did not give details on the
course of the meetings. Earlier, U.S. State Department spokesman J. Adam Ereli told a news
briefing audience on March 15 that “we support the work of Investigator Brammertz. He’s
continuing the important and invaluable work of his predecessor, Mr. Mehlis.”
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Other Recent Activity. According to news reports, the Lebanese government has
requested an extension of the UNIIIC’s mandate beyond the current deadline of June 15,
2006.10 During testimony on May 25, 2006, before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee,
Ambassador Bolton said that “[w]e continue to support Commissioner Serge Brammertz’
ongoing investigation of this terrorist act, and will support an extension” of the
Commission’s mandate when its mandate expires. A proposed extension is likely to
engender considerable discussion in Beirut and Washington, as well as at the U.N. Security
Council. Some Lebanese officials, for example, have expressed concern that repeated
extension of the mandate will make it impossible for the Commission to come to closure.
Others think the Commission needs more time to complete the collection and analysis of
data.
Elections of 2005 and Aftermath
As Syrian troops departed from Lebanon under U.S. and international pressure (see
below), the Lebanese prepared to hold parliamentary elections without Syrian interference
for the first time since 1972. Parliamentary elections, held in four phases between May 29
and June 5, 2005, gave a majority (72 out of 128 seats) to a large, anti-Syrian bloc known as
the Bristol Gathering or the March 14 Movement, headed by Saad Hariri, a son of the late
prime minister. A second, largely Shi’ite and pro-Syrian bloc grouping Hizballah and the
more moderate Amal organization won 33 seats. A third bloc, the Change and Reform
Movement (also known as the Free Patriotic Movement), consisted of largely Christian
supporters of former dissident armed forces chief of staff General Michel Awn,11 who
returned to Lebanon from exile in France in May 2005. Awn’s bloc, which adopted a
somewhat equivocal position regarding Syria, gained 21 seats. Despite Hariri’s success, the
electoral pattern resulted in a mixed government, which complicates its abilities to adopt
clear policy lines. Hariri associate Fouad Siniora became prime minister and the 24-member
cabinet contains 15 Hariri supporters; however, it also contains five supporters of the Shi’ite
bloc including for the first time in Lebanese history a member of Hizballah — Mohammed
Fneish, Minister of Energy and Water Resources. Other key pro-Syrians remaining in the
government are President Lahoud and veteran parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri, who heads
the Amal organization (Hizballah’s junior partner in the Shi’ite coalition) and has held the
speakership since 1992.
Siniora will continue to face difficulties in working with this mixed government. First,
pressure has mounted for the resignation of President Lahoud with the identification of
several of his close associates in the Hariri assassination.12 Second, the role of the formerly
exiled General Awn is uncertain: though long an opponent of the Syrian role in Lebanon,
10 “Lebanon Wants Extension Of UN Hariri Murder Investigation,” Dow Jones Newswires, May 2,
2006.
11 General Awn, a controversial former armed forces commander and prime minister, rejected the
Taif Agreement and ultimately obtained political asylum in France.
12 In early January an anti-Syrian Lebanese political figure described Lahoud’s extension in office
as “null and void.” On the other hand, Shi’ite cabinet ministers reportedly refused to attend a cabinet
meeting unless President Lahoud was present. Majdoline Hatoum, “Calls for Lahoud’s Resignation
Intensify,” The Daily Star (Beirut), Jan. 4, 2006; Adnan al-Ghoul, “Hizbullah Takes Gloves off in
Row with Jumblatt,” The Daily Star (Beirut), Jan. 16, 2006.
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Awn formed tactical alliances with several pro-Syrian Lebanese politicians during the recent
elections in an effort to defeat pro-Hariri candidates. On the other hand, Awn’s grouping is
not represented in the newly formed cabinet and Awn has said he will form the backbone of
an opposition to Siniora’s government. Some observers believe Awn has his eye on the
presidency. Third, the inclusion of a Hizballah official in the cabinet raises further potential
problems; for example, the U.S. State Department, while welcoming the Siniora cabinet, has
said it will not deal with an official of Hizballah, which the U.S. Government has listed as
a foreign terrorist organization. Fourth, a major stumbling block for the government is a
U.N. demand contained in Security Council Resolution 1559 that all militias be disbanded,
which in effect refers mainly to Hizballah. This demand has proven difficult to implement
in view of Hizballah’s strong block of supporters in parliament and its paramilitary
capabilities, together with support for Hizballah from Syria and Iran.
Deadlock and Potential Realignments. Disputes over Lahoud’s status and
Hizballah disarmament led to a cabinet crisis and temporary boycott by Shi’ite cabinet
ministers in December 2005. The crisis was temporarily resolved when Prime Minister
Siniora stated on February 3, 2006, that “we have never called and will never call the
resistance [Hizballah] by any other name” [thereby avoiding the term “militia” in
characterizing Hizballah]. In the meantime, leaders of two major parliamentary blocs with
strongly differing views on Syria and other topics — Hizballah chief Hasan Nasrallah and
Free Patriotic Movement leader General Michel Awn — held what some describe as a
historic meeting in a Beirut church on February 6, 2006. At the meeting, the two adopted a
“Paper of Understanding” that called for ways to end rampant corruption; draft a new
election law and envisages ways of confronting issues such as the demarcation of borders and
establishment of diplomatic relations with Syria; and disarming Hizballah guerrillas and
Palestinian factions. The parties emphasized that they were not forming an alliance or
seeking to terminate other bilateral undertakings involving either of the two parties. Some
parties, however, have gone so far as to call the Awn-Nasrallah meeting a “coup,” saying that
a meeting between the two leaders who have wide followings in their respective communities
“will leave its impact on balances of power that have emerged since Hariri’s assassination.”13
National Dialogue. On March 2, 2006, 14 Lebanese leaders representing major
sectarian communities and political groups convened a National Dialogue conference to
address key issues currently dividing Lebanon. The ground-breaking conference, pushed by
parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri and other Lebanese politicians, agreed to address such
issues as the status of President Lahoud, the international investigation of the Hariri and other
assassinations, arms maintained by Hizballah and Palestinians outside refugee camps,
demarcation of the Syrian-Lebanese border including the disputed Shib’a Farms area (see
below), and establishment of diplomatic relations between Lebanon and Syria (which has
never taken place). According to press reports, the conferees reached initial agreement on
March 13 to disarm Palestinians outside refugee camps and to work to establish diplomatic
relations with Syria; however, Syria is resisting border demarcation or establishment of
diplomatic relations at this time; moreover, the parties were unable so far to agree on the
status of President Lahoud or disarmament of Hizballah. More sessions resumed in late
April 2006.
13 Hussein Dakroub, “Alliance between pro-and anti-Syrian leaders seen as “coup in Lebanon’s
politics,” Associated Press, February 8, 2006.
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Recent or Current Foreign Presence in Lebanon
Syria
Thirty-five thousand Syrian troops entered Lebanon in March 1976, in response to then
President Suleiman Frangieh’s appeal to protect the Christians from Muslim and Palestinian
militias; later, Syria switched its support away from the main Christian factions. Between
May 1988 and June 2001, Syrian forces occupied most of west Beirut and much of eastern
and northern Lebanon. Syrian forces did not venture south of a “red line” running east and
west across Lebanon near Rashayah, inasmuch as territory south of the line was considered
to fall within the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) operating area.
In October 1989, as part of the Taif agreements, Syria agreed to begin discussions on
possible Syrian troop redeployment from Beirut to the eastern Beqaa Valley two years after
political reforms were implemented and discuss further withdrawals at that time. Then
President Elias Hirawi signed the reforms in September 1990. However, the withdrawal
discussions, which according to most interpretations of the Taif Agreement were to have
started in September 1992, did not take place, in part because the Lebanese government said
it needed more time to establish its authority over the country. Syrian officials maintained
that they were waiting for the Lebanese government to complete rebuilding the army and
police forces and assume security responsibilities in Lebanon before beginning the
withdrawal discussions.
In the meantime, Syria and Lebanon signed a treaty of brotherhood, cooperation, and
coordination in May 1991, which called for creating several joint committees to coordinate
policies. Although Syrian troop strength in Lebanon reportedly declined from 35,000-40,000
in the 1980s to approximately 14,000 by early 2005, Syria continued to exercise controlling
influence over Lebanon’s domestic politics and regional policies; moreover, its intelligence
agents were active in Lebanon. U.N. Security Council Resolution 1559 adopted on
September 2, 2004, called among other things upon “all remaining foreign forces to
withdraw from Lebanon.”
The Hariri assassination in February 2005 prompted strong international pressure on the
Syrian regime, particularly from the United States and France, to withdraw its forces and
intelligence apparatus from Lebanon in accordance with Resolution 1559. On April 26,
2005, the Syrian foreign minister informed U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan and the
President of the U.N. Security Council that Syrian forces had completed their withdrawal
from Lebanon. In his first semi-annual report on the implementation of Resolution 1559,14
the U.N. Secretary General stated that as of April 26, however, he had not been able to verify
full Syrian withdrawal; consequently, he dispatched a U.N. team to verify whether there had
been a full Syrian withdrawal. On May 23, the U.N. Secretary General forwarded a report
by a team he had sent to Lebanon to verify Syrian withdrawal. The team “found no Syrian
military forces, assets or intelligence apparatus in Lebanese territory, with the exception of
one Syrian battalion” deployed near the disputed village of Deir Al-Ashayr on the Lebanese-
Syrian border. The team also concluded that “no Syrian military intelligence personnel
14 U.N. Security Council document S/2005/272, Paragraph 17.
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remain in Lebanon in known locations or in military uniform” but added that it was “unable
to conclude with certainty that all the intelligence apparatus has been withdrawn.”15
On June 10, 2005, following reports of Syrian involvement in attacks on anti-Syrian
Lebanese officials and journalists, Secretary General Annan sent the verification team back
to Lebanon to see if Syrian intelligence agents were still in the country. The team returned
on July 11 and subsequently submitted a report to Annan. In his second semi-annual report
on implementation of Resolution 1559, submitted on October 26, 2005, Annan reported that
“[o]verall, the team corroborated its earlier conclusion that there was no remaining visible
or significant Syrian intelligence presence or activity in Lebanon, though the distinctly close
historical and other ties between the Syrian Arab Republic and Lebanon also had to be taken
into account when assessing a possibly ongoing influence of Syrian intelligence in Lebanon.”
He acknowledged that there were some credible reports that Syrian intelligence continued
to influence events in Lebanon but said most of these reports were exaggerated. On the other
hand, the Secretary General noted that other requirements of Resolution 1559 remained to
be implemented, particularly disbanding and disarming Lebanese and non-Lebanese militia
(notably Hizballah and several Palestinian groups) and extension of Lebanese government
control throughout all of the country.16
The third semi-annual report on implementation of Resolution 1559, submitted to the
Security Council on April 19, 2006, recounted previously reported threats by Syrian officials
against Lebanese legislators if they did not vote for extension of President Lahoud’s term.
The report says that Syrian forces and intelligence services have effectively left Lebanon, but
some other U.N. demands remain unmet, including disarmament of Hizballah, demarcation
of the border, and establishment of diplomatic relations. In an interview with Lally
Weymouth published in the May 1, 2006, edition of Newsweek, Prime Minister Siniora said
“Syria has its men and people in the country: supporters, some politicians and quite a number
of Syrian intelligence.”
Resolution 1680 and Related Activity. As concerns continued over a possible
Syrian “shadow” presence in Lebanon, sentiment began to build among some members of
the Security Council to consider further follow-up action. Speaking to reporters on April 26,
2006, U.S. Ambassador John Bolton suggested that another Security Council resolution
might be appropriate as a means of “highlighting the areas of deficiency in Syria’s
performance under 1559 and possibly under 1595 as well” to show the Council’s “continuing
resolve” on the question of Lebanon. After further consultation among U.S., British, and
French representatives, on May 17, 2006, the Security Council adopted Resolution 1680 by
a vote of 13 to 0. Russia and China, which had favored a Security Council presidential
statement rather than another resolution, abstained. The resolution noted progress in
implementing provisions of Resolution 1559 but noted with regret that some provisions of
Resolution 1559 have not yet been met. The resolution calls on Syria to prevent movement
of arms into Lebanon, “strongly encourages” Syria to respond positively to the request by
Lebanon to delineate their common border and establish full diplomatic relations, and calls
for the disbandment of all militias inside Lebanon.
15 Annex to U.N. Security Council document S/2005/331, Letter dated May 23, 2005, from the
Secretary-General addressed to the President of the Security Council.
16 Text of report is attached to U.N. Security Council document S/2005/673, Oct. 26, 2005.
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Syrian officials and supporters rejected the resolution. Syria’s Foreign Ministry issued
a statement saying that it “constitutes an unjustifiable pressure tool and aggravation that
complicates matters rather than solving them.” A pro-Syrian Lebanese political party
described Resolution 1680 as “a dangerous precedent that violates sovereignty of
countries.”17 Russia’s U.N. Ambassador said he disagreed with using the Security Council
as a medium for Syrian-Lebanese discussion, while the Chinese Deputy Ambassador said
China does not believe the Security Council should get involved in bilateral issues.
Israel
In March 1978, Israel invaded and occupied Lebanese territory south of the Litani River,
to destroy Palestinian bases that Israel believed were the source of attacks against Israelis.
Israeli forces withdrew in June 1978, after the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon
(UNIFIL) was placed south of the Litani to serve as a buffer between Israel and the
Palestinians (U.N.S.C. Resolution 425, March 19, 1978). In June 1982, Israel mounted a
more extensive invasion designed to root out armed Palestinian guerrillas from southern
Lebanon, defeated Syrian forces in central Lebanon, and advanced as far north as Beirut. As
many as 20,000 Palestinians and Lebanese may have perished in the fighting. Israeli forces
completed a phased withdrawal in 1985, but maintained a 9-mile wide security zone in
southern Lebanon from 1985 to 2000. About 1,000 members of the Israeli Defense Forces
(IDF) patrolled the zone, backed by a 2,000-3,000 Lebanese militia called the South Lebanon
Army (SLA), which was trained and equipped by Israel. On its part, Israel continued its air
and artillery retaliation against Palestinian and Lebanese Shi’ite militia and Lebanese armed
forces units that attacked IDF and SLA positions.
In May 2000, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak fulfilled a 1999 campaign promise to
withdraw Israeli forces from the security zone in southern Lebanon. Barak had hoped to do
this in conjunction with a Syrian withdrawal, but the continued stalemate in Syrian-Israeli
talks led Barak to decide to move unilaterally. Some 500 Hizballah militia moved into
portions of the southern security zone vacated by the IDF and SLA. Israel gave asylum to
approximately 6,700 SLA fighters and their families, while another 1,500 SLA were captured
by Hizballah and turned over to the Lebanese Government to stand trial. Of the 6,700 exiles,
many emigrated to Australia, Canada, and Latin America; approximately 2,000 remained in
Israel as of mid-2005, where they were recently granted the right to Israeli citizenship but
few applied.
The Shib’a Farms. Syria and the then pro-Syrian Lebanese government asserted that
the Israeli withdrawal was incomplete because it did not include a 10-square-mile enclave
known as the Shib’a Farms near the Israeli-Lebanese-Syrian tri-border area. Most third
parties maintain that the Shib’a Farms is part of the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights
and is not part of the Lebanese territory from which Israeli was required to withdraw under
a 1978 U.N. Security Council resolution (425). On June 16, 2000, the U.N. Secretary
General informed the Security Council that Israel had withdrawn from Lebanon in
compliance with Resolution 425.
17 American Embassy, Damascus, Syria, via LOC Cairo, Damascus Media Reaction, May 29, 2006.
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Hizballah, on its part, claimed credit for forcing Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon,
thereby boosting its credentials within the Arab world. Since May 2000, Israeli forces in the
Shib’a Farms area have been the main focus of Hizballah attacks. Some analysts believe that
Syria, the Lebanese government, and Hizballah raised the issue of this obscure enclave as a
justification for continuing to put military pressure on Israel to withdraw from the Golan
Heights in the aftermath of its withdrawal from Lebanon.18 Syria denies this. Moreover,
Lebanese politicians across the spectrum, including those opposed to Syria, appear to agree
that the Farms are Lebanese territory; in his interview with Lally Weymouth, Prime Minister
Siniora said the “Sheba (variant spelling) Farms is Lebanese.” Commentators have
speculated that through its contacts with Hizballah, Iran may seek to fill the vacuum left by
Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon. Others doubt that Iran has the means to fill Syria’s former
role in Lebanon, noting that unlike Syria, Iran does not have contiguous borders with
Lebanon.19
U.S.-Lebanese Relations
U.S. Policy Toward Lebanon. The United States has enjoyed good diplomatic
relations with Lebanon and has supported its political independence. During the 1975-1990
civil war, the United States expressed concern over the violence and destruction taking place
there; provided emergency economic aid, military training, and limited amounts of military
equipment; and briefly deployed military forces to Lebanon in the early 1980s, as noted
earlier. The United States supported and participated in various efforts to bring about a
cease-fire during the civil war and subsequent efforts to quiet unrest in southern Lebanon
along the Lebanese-Israeli border. In 1996 the United States helped negotiate an agreement
between Hizballah and Israel to avoid targeting civilians and is a member of a five-party
force monitoring this agreement. The United States endorsed the U.N. Secretary General’s
findings in May 2000 that Israel had completed its withdrawal from southern Lebanon. The
U.S. Administration reacted strongly to the assassination of the late Prime Minister Hariri
in February 2005, criticized the Syrian presence in Lebanon, and demanded withdrawal of
Syrian forces; following the assassination, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice recalled U.S.
Ambassador to Syria Margaret Scobey to Washington for consultations.
The United States has welcomed the formation of a new Lebanese government
following the withdrawal of Syrian forces. On July 22, 2005, Secretary of State Rice met
with President Lahoud, Prime Minister Siniora, and other officials during a brief surprise
visit to Lebanon. After a meeting with Siniora, Dr. Rice said, “I think that you cannot find
a partner more supportive of Lebanon than the United States. This is a tremendous
achievement for the Lebanese people; namely, to be able to control their future by
themselves.” On a subsequent trip to Lebanon, however, Ms. Rice declined to meet with
President Lahoud. After meeting with President Bush in Washington on April 18, 2006,
Prime Minister Siniora said in his Lally Weymouth interview that he asked President Bush
18 Michael Slackman, “Shabaa [variant spelling] Farms at Center of Tension for Lebanon, Syria and
Israel,” Los Angeles Times, Apr. 28, 2001.
19 Michael Slackman, “As Syria’s Iinfluence in Lebanon Wanes, Iran Moves In,” New York Times,
March 13, 2006.
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for three things: to empower the Lebanese government politically through restoration of all
its territories (including the Shib’a Farms); to help build the capabilities of Lebanon’s armed
forces and security forces; and to empower the government economically.
Role of Congress
Congress has also shown considerable interest in Lebanon and Members have spoken
frequently against Syrian domination of the Lebanese scene. For example:
On July 1, 1993, the U.S. Senate passed by voice vote S.Con.Res. 28, which stated that
Syria had violated the Taif Agreements (see below) by not withdrawing from Lebanon in
September 1992, urged an immediate Syrian withdrawal, and called upon the President to
continue withholding aid and support for Syria.
The House of Representatives added an amendment to the State Department
Authorization bill, Section 863 of H.R. 1646, in mid-May 2001, which would have cut
$600,000 in International Military Education and Training (IMET) funds to Lebanon unless
Lebanon deployed its armed forces to the border with Israel. Section 863 also called upon
the President to present a plan to Congress to cut ESF funds if Lebanon did not deploy within
six months.
Section 1224 of P.L. 107-228, the Security Assistance Act of 2002, stated that $10
million of the funds available for FY2003 and subsequent years could not be obligated until
the President certified to Congress that Lebanese Armed Forces had deployed to the
internationally recognized Lebanon-Israel border and that Lebanon was asserting its authority
over the border area. The amendment (popularly called the “Lantos Amendment” after its
initial sponsor) was added to compel Lebanon to exercise control over the border area,
displacing Hizballah forces. Lebanon refused to move to the border until Israel evacuated
the Shib’a Farms disputed area. According to unconfirmed sources, the $10 million was held
in an escrow account pending negotiations among the United States, Israel, Lebanon, and
Members of Congress.
On December 12, 2003, President Bush signed H.R. 1828, the Syria Accountability and
Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act (P.L. 108-175), which directs the President to apply
economic and diplomatic sanctions to Syria if Syria does not meet several demands,
including withdrawal from Lebanon and deployment of Lebanon’s armed forces in all parts
of Lebanon.
Both houses have passed measures condemning the Hariri assassination, calling for a
full investigation, and calling on Syria to withdraw from Lebanon (for example, H.Res. 91,
H.Res. 273, S.Res. 63, and S.Res. 77).
Recent and Current U.S. Assistance to Lebanon
In December 1996, the United States organized a Friends of Lebanon conference, which
resulted in a U.S. commitment of $60 million in U.S. aid to Lebanon over a five-year period
beginning in FY1997 and ending in FY2001, i.e., $12 million per year mainly in Economic
Support Funds (ESF). Congress increased this amount to $15 million in FY2000 and $35
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million in FY2001, reportedly to help Lebanon adjust to new conditions following Israel’s
withdrawal and cope with continuing economic strains. U.S. economic aid to Lebanon has
hovered around $35 million in subsequent years.
The Bush Administration requested $35 million in ESF and $700,000 in International
Military Education and Training (IMET) for FY2006. H.R 3057 (the foreign operations
appropriations bill for FY2006), which was passed by the House on June 28, 2005, raises the
requested ESF amount from $35 million to $40 million, of which $6 million is to be devoted
to scholarships and U.S. educational institutions in Lebanon. The Senate version of H.R.
3057, reported on June 30, contained $35 million in ESF, of which $4 million is for
educational institutions. During floor debate on July 19, however, the Senate adopted
Amendment 1298, which increased ESF to Lebanon by $5 million and provided that an
additional $2 million of these funds would be available for scholarships and educational
institutions, thereby aligning the Senate figures with those of the House bill. The Senate
passed its version of the bill on July 20. (See Table 2, below, for annual U.S. aid to
Lebanon.) The conference report (H.Rept. 109-265) contained the $40 million for Lebanon
(including $6 million for scholarships). The President signed H.R. 3057 as P.L. 109-102 on
November 14, 2005.
According to the Administration’s original planning (based on $35 million in ESF), ESF
for Lebanon in FY2006 is targeted toward three main objectives: economic growth,
agriculture, and trade ($22 million); promoting democracy and good governance ($7
million); and protection of the environment ($6 million). IMET programs are designed to
increase military professionalism among Lebanese Armed Forces personnel, reduce
sectarianism in a major national institution, foster personal working relationships with U.S.
military personnel, and offer an alternative to training conducted by Syria and other countries
less amenable to U.S. democratic ideals. IMET-funded maritime training will emphasize
port security and search and rescue operations.
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Table 2. U.S. Assistance to Lebanon
(millions of dollars)
Economic Aid
Food Aid
Military Aid
I.M.E.T.
Year
Total
(Grants)
(Grants)
(Loans)
(Grants)
1946 - 1980
332.7
120.2a
86.2b
123.3c
3.0
1981
24.3
4.0
0
20.0
0.3
1982
21.8
9.0
2.2
10.0
0.6
1983
153.9
52.2
0
100.0
1.7
1984
44.0
28.1
0.3
15.0
0.6
1985
21.1
19.9
0.5
0
0.7
1986
17.6
16.0
1.1
0
0.5
1987
23.0
12.8
9.7
0
0.5
1988
12.3
5.1
6.8
0
0.4
1989
15.5
2.8
12.3
0
0.4
1990
19.4
8.3
10.7
0
0.4
1991
19.2
9.3
9.9
0
0
1992
16.4
9.2
7.2
0
0
1993
14.4
10.3
3.5
0
0.6
1994
2.0
1.7
0
0
0.3
1995
16.0
15.6d
0
0
0.4
1996
2.5
2.0
0
0
0.5
1997
12.8
12.3
0
0
0.5
1998
12.6
12.0
0
0
0.6
1999
12.6
12.0
0
0
0.6
2000
15.6
15.0
0
0
0.6
2001
35.4
34.9
0
0
0.5
2002
35.6
35.0
0
0
0.6
2003
35.5
34.8
0
0
0.7
2004
35.9
35.2
0
0
0.7
2005
35.9
35.2
0
0
0.7
2006e
40.7
40.0e
0
0
0.7
2007
41.2
35.5
0
4.8
.9
Totals
1,069.9
628.4
150.4
273.1
18.0
Source: U.S. Agency for International Development, U.S. Overseas Loans and Grants.
I.M.E.T. = International Military Education and Training
a. Of the $120.2 million total, $19 million was loans.
b. Of the $86.2 million total, $28.5 million was loans.
c. Of the $123.3 million total, $109.5 was loans and $13.8 million was grants.
d. Includes about $6 million from 1994.
e. Administration requested $35 million in ESF, increased to $40 million by P.L. 109-102.
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