The Budget for Fiscal Year 2002

The Budget for Fiscal Year 2002

Order Code IB10079
Issue Brief for Congress
Received through the CRS Web
The Budget for Fiscal Year 2002
Updated June 14, 2002
Philip D. Winters
Government and Finance Division
Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress

CONTENTS
SUMMARY
MOST RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
BACKGROUND AND ANALYSIS
Budget Totals
Budget Proposals and Estimates
Uncertainty in Budget Projections
Budget Action
Outlays
Receipts
Surpluses Or Deficits
The Budget and the Economy
LEGISLATION
CONGRESSIONAL HEARINGS, REPORTS, AND DOCUMENTS
FOR ADDITIONAL READING
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The Budget for Fiscal Year 2002
SUMMARY
The President submitted a $27 billion
Earlier in 2001, Congress had adopted
emergency supplemental appropriations re-
the FY2002 budget resolution (H.Con.Res.
quest for fiscal year (FY) 2002 on March 21,
83) on May 10. It modified both the House
2002. The funds would be used for defense,
and Senate versions of the resolution adopted
homeland security, and other purposes. The
earlier. The resolution resembled President
House passed a larger ($29 billion) bill (H.R.
Bush’s original proposals that had been
4775) on May 24. The Senate adopted its
presented in A Blueprint for New Beginnings
version (S. 2551) on June 3 ($31 billion). The
(February 28, 2001). Those proposals in-
President has threatened a veto.
cluded a 10-year $1.6 trillion tax cut, in-
creased spending for education, a review of
The deterioration in the FY 2002 budget
defense needs, and an “Immediate Helping
outlook became apparent in the early 2002
Hand” to provide prescription drug benefits to
budget reports from the Administration
low income seniors. (The Administration
(OMB) and the CBO. The very large surplus
released its complete and detailed budget on
(with baseline estimates of $300 billion)
April 9, 2001.) A modified version of the tax
expected early in 2001 for FY2002 disap-
cut (totaling $1.35 trillion over ten years) was
peared and has been replaced by a deficit. A
enacted in early June.
combination of changes in policies, expected
economic conditions, and technical assump-
Over the summer of 2001, work contin-
tions all contributed to the reduction and
ued on preparing for the fall debate on the
disappearance of the surplus over the last year.
appropriations for the year. In late August
2001, the Administration’s Mid-Session Re-
In December 2001, Congress completed
view (MSR) and the Congressional Budget
action on the last of the 13 regular appropria-
Office’s (CBO) Update contained sharply
tion bills for FY2002. While considering the
lower surplus estimates for FY2002. These
regular appropriations during the fall, Con-
surplus estimates for FY2002 ranged from
gress adopted eight continuing resolutions
$173 billion to $176 billion (down from April
(CR) on appropriations to provide interim
and May 2001 estimates of $231 billion to
funding. Policy disagreements, the terrorist
$257 billion incorporating the estimated
attacks in September, and the anthrax disrup-
effects of the President’s policy proposals
tions all slowed the progress of the appropria-
including the tax cut).
tions.
Immediately after the terrorist attacks,
The budget outlook for the year was
Congress passed emergency supplemental
deteriorating prior to the events of the fall. A
appropriations (P.L. 107-38; September 18,
worsening economic outlook (a recession had
2001) providing $20 billion immediately and
started in March 2001) and the effects of the
directing that another $20 billion be provided
June tax cut (P.L. 107-16) had dropped the
in regular appropriations. Legislation also
baseline surplus estimate (CBO) to $175
provided $15 billion ($10 billion in loan
billion in August from over $300 billion in
guarantees) for airline stabilization (P.L. 107-
May. In late November 2001, the Administra-
42; September 22, 2001).
tion indicated that it expected the budget
would fall into a deficit for the year.
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MOST RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
In response to the Administration’s March 21, 2002, request for $27 billion in
emergency supplemental appropriations for fiscal year (FY) 2002, mostly for defense and
homeland security, the House passed a $29 billion appropriations (H.R. 4775) on May 24.
The Senate adopted its version of the supplemental appropriation (S. 2551), worth an
estimated $31 billion, on June 3, substituting the text of S. 2551 for the text of H.R. 4775.
The President has threatened a veto if the amounts in the House and Senate bills are not
reduced.
Earlier in the year, the House (on March 7, 2002) and the Senate (on March 8, 2002)
agreed to H.R. 3090, the Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act of 2002. The legislation,
designed for economic stimulus, would increase the deficit, from baseline levels, by $51
billion in FY2002. The President signed the bill on March 9, 2002 (P.L. 107-147)
BACKGROUND AND ANALYSIS
Presidents generally submit their budget proposals for the upcoming fiscal year early
in each calendar year. For FY2002, the new Bush Administration presented its summary
budget document (A Blueprint for New Beginnings) on February 28, 2001. The single
volume contained a general description the Administration’s policy proposals and
expectations for the budget for FY2002 and for the years through FY2011. On April 9,
2001, the Administration released its full set of budget documents containing extensive and
detailed budget related information, including estimates of the budget without the proposed
policy changes (current service baseline estimates), historical budget data, detailed outlay and
receipt data, selected analysis of specific budget related topics, and the Administration’s
economic forecast. These detailed budget documents are an annual basic reference source
for federal budget information in addition to their use as a transmitter of the Administration’s
policy proposals.
The Administration’s annual budget submission is followed by congressional action on
the budget. This includes the annual budget resolution, appropriations, and, possibly, a
reconciliation bill or bills. During the months of deliberation on budget related legislation,
the Administration often modifies its proposals, not only because of interactions with
Congress, but because of changing circumstances in the economy and the world.
Budget Totals
Table 1 contains budget estimates and proposals for FY2002 from the Congressional
Budget Office (CBO), the Administration (the Office of Management and Budget – OMB),
and the congressional budget resolution. Differences in totals occur because of differing
underlying economic, technical, and budget-estimating assumptions and techniques as well
as differences in policy assumptions. Most policy differences between the Administration
and congressional proposals or assumptions for an upcoming fiscal year are often relatively
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small compared to the budget as a whole. These small one-year changes may have large
implications over extended time periods. Budget totals should be expected to change over
time from those originally proposed, either by the President or by Congress.
Table 1. Budget Proposals and Estimates for FY2002
(in billions of dollars)
Deficit(-)/
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus
Actual for FY1997
$1,579.3
$1,601.3
-$22
Actual for FY1998
1,721.8
1,652.6
69
Actual for FY1999
1,827.5
1,703.0
124
Actual for FY2000
2,025.2
1,789.0
236
Actual for FY2001
1,991
1,864
127
CBO Baseline for FY2002 1/31/01
2,236
1,923
313
President’s Budget Blueprint for FY2002 2/28/01
2,190
1,959
231
House budget resolution for FY2002 3/28/01
2,168
1,941
227
Senate budget resolution for FY2002 4/6/01
2,177
1,979
198
President’s Budget for FY2002 4/9/01
2,192
1,961
231
OMB Baseline for FY2002 2/28/01 & 4/9/01
2,221
1,938
283
Conference budget resolution for FY2002 5/10/01
2,171
1,952
219
CBO revised baseline for FY2002 5/18/01
2,226
1,922
304
CBO reestimate of President’s budget for FY2002 5/18/01
2,201
1,944
257
President’s MSR for FY2002 8/22/01
2,135
1,962
173
President’s MSR baseline for FY2002 8/22/01
2,135
1,949
187
CBO Update baseline for FY2002 8/28/01
2,134
1,958
176
FY2002 Estimates in FY2003 Budget Documents
CBO B&E Outlook, baseline FY2002 1/31/02
1,983
2,003
-21
President’s Budget, baseline FY2002 2/4/02
2,011
2,020
-9
President’s Budget, FY2002 2/4/02
1,946
2,052
-106
CBO reestimate of President’s budget, FY2002, 3/6/02
1,942
2,033
-90
CBO revised baseline FY2002, 3/6/02
2,006
2,001
5
House budget resolution for FY2003 3/20/02
1,968
2,033
-66
a. The Senate and conference budget resolution included an $85 billion tax rebate that was reflected in the
Allowances function on the outlay side of the budget.
MSR – Mid-Session Review.
B&E Outlook – The Budget and Economic Outlook: FY2003-2012, January 31, 2002.
The terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001, the recession, changes
from the originally proposed policies, and technical changes in budget estimating
relationships methods, all contributed to the large change in the short- and long-term budget
outlooks between early 2001 and early 2002. Further changes to the FY2002 budget may
still occur in the last four months of the fiscal year.
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Budget Proposals and Estimates
CBO’s original FY2002 budget report, the Budget and Economic Outlook (January
2001), contained baselines estimates and projections for FY2001 through FY2011.1 CBO’s
report estimated a FY2002 surplus of $313 billion, receipts of $2,236 billion, and outlays of
$1,923 billion. The 10-year (FY2002-FY2011) cumulative total surplus in the CBO report
was $5.6 trillion; the 10-year cumulative on-budget surplus (the portion of the total surplus
excluding Social Security and the Postal Service) was $3.1 trillion.
President Bush’s FY2002 budget (both the Blueprint from February 2001 and the
complete budget from April 2001) used the then expected positive economic and budget
outlook over the 10-year budget window to support his proposals to cut taxes and increase
selected spending. The proposals, as measured against the 10-year baseline, included a $1.6
trillion tax cut, increases in defense, education, and Medicare spending (totaling $172 billion,
which included both increases and decreases in other federal activities). The budget implied
that there would be possible additional increases in defense spending after a review of
defense needs and, because the policy proposals resulted in smaller surpluses and higher
levels of debt, higher interest payments (of $420 billion) over the 10 years. The policy
changes, according to the Administration, would leave a cumulative $841 billion in the on-
budget surplus over the 10-year budget horizon. The proposals would, assuming all
underlying assumptions proved correct, eliminate $2 trillion of the existing $3.4 trillion
publicly held debt by FY2011.
For FY2002, the Bush Administration originally proposed a surplus of $231 billion,
$52 billion below its baseline surplus and smaller than its $281 billion estimated surplus for
FY2001. The reduction in the surplus from the baseline surplus resulted from approximately
equally sized increases in outlays and reductions in receipts from baseline levels. The
resulting original on-budget surplus was $59 billion in FY2002, $52 billion below the
baseline estimate and smaller than the then estimated $125 billion FY2001 surplus. In the
original Administration budget documents, the surplus reduction for FY2002 and all 10 years
would have come from only the then estimated on-budget surplus – reserving the off-budget
surplus for reducing the federal debt held by the public.
The President’s FY2002 budget proposed, from baseline levels, increases in
discretionary spending of $8 billion (1.2%), in mandatory spending of $13 billion (1.2%),
and in net interest of $2 billion (1.1%). The proposed tax cut would reduce FY2002 receipts
by $31 billion (1.4%) below baseline levels. The overall proposed policy changes
particularly in outlays, obscured particular increases and decreases proposed by the
Administration.
In the spring of 2001, Congress adopted the congressional budget resolution for FY2002
(H.Con.Res. 83; May 10, 2001), which contained somewhat smaller receipts, outlays, and
a surplus than in the President’s original proposals for FY2002. The differences between the
1 Baseline estimates provide a foundation from which to measure proposed policy changes. They
extrapolate current policies into the future based on expectations of the future economy and other
factors that affect the budget. They are not meant to predict future budget outcomes.
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Administration’s proposed amounts and those in the budget resolution were small compared
to the amounts involved (although there were differences in policy choices).
CBO’s reestimates of the President’s proposals (May 2001) differed relatively little
from the Administration’s numbers for FY2002. CBO’s estimates of the Administration’s
proposed policy produced larger receipts (by $9 billion), smaller outlays (by $17 billion), and
a larger surplus (by $26 billion) than the Administration. Over the 10-year budget window,
CBO showed smaller cumulative receipts, by approximately $200 billion, larger cumulative
outlays, by $57 billion, and a smaller cumulative surplus, by approximately $250 billion.
These differences between the CBO reestimates and the Administration’s proposals were
fairly small compared to the $26 trillion in cumulative receipts and $22 trillion in cumulative
outlays projected over the 10 years. (The report also contained slightly revised CBO baseline
estimates and projections.)
The release of the Administration’s Mid-Session Review (MSR; August 22, 2001)
substantially changed the short-term budget outlook and, at that time, was seen as increasing
the difficulty of completing the new year’s budget legislation, in particular, the
appropriations. The continuing economic sluggishness combined with technical adjustments
to the estimates and other, less significant factors reduced the Administration’s estimated
surplus for FY2002 to $173 billion (from $231 billion in April). The MSR also showed the
non-Social Security surplus for FY2002 almost disappearing, falling from the $56 billion
estimated in April to the $1 billion estimated in August 2001. For the full 10-year period
covered by the budget window, the MSR showed a cumulative total surplus of $3.1 trillion
incorporating the Administration’s remaining unadopted proposals (and $3.8 trillion without
the proposals).
CBO’s mid-year report, the Economic and Budget Outlook: An Update (Update; August
28, 2001), mirrored the Administration’s MSR. The baseline numbers in the CBO report
incorporated the effects of the continuing very slowly growing economy, the policy changes
adopted since May, particularly the tax cut, and technical changes. The results were much
smaller surpluses for FY2002 ($176 billion). The revised CBO baseline numbers showed
that the cumulative surplus (for FY2002 through FY2011) would be almost $3.4 trillion,
slightly smaller than the Administration’s baseline estimate for the same period.
CBO released revised FY2002 budget estimates as part of the FY2003 budget report
(January 31, 2002). Reflecting the sharp changes in the budget outlook over the last year,
CBO’s revised estimates expect a deficit of $21 billion in FY2002. The policy changes
proposed for FY2002 as part of the Administration’s FY2003 budget (February 4, 2002)
would increase the size of the expected deficit to $106 billion (from the Administration’s $9
billion deficit baseline estimate). Most of the Administration’s proposed changes for
FY2002 in the FY2003 budget were tied to the Administration’s proposed “Bipartisan
Economic Security Plan,” which would increase both spending and cut taxes and was
presented as an economic stimulus package.2
2 The Bipartisan Economic Security Plan, if adopted as proposed, would have increased outlays by
$27 billion and reduced revenues by $64 billion in FY2002.
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A subsequent budget report from CBO (An Analysis of the President’s Budgetary
Proposals for Fiscal Year 2003, March 2002) revised its baseline, showing a slightly
improved budget outlook, and provided reestimates of the President’s proposals based on
CBO’s economic and technical assumptions. The revised CBO baseline had a $5 billion
surplus for FY2002. The reestimates of the Administration’s policy had a $90 billion deficit
for the year, smaller than the amount in the President’s budget.
Uncertainty in Budget Projections
All budget estimates and projections are inherently uncertain. Their dependence on
assumptions that are themselves subject to substantial variation makes budget estimates and
projections susceptible to fairly rapid and dramatic changes. The changes in the budget
estimates for FY2002 between January 2001 and early in 2002 illustrate this volatility. The
estimates stretching over 5 to 10 years into the future are subject to even greater volatility.
The September 2001 attacks on the United States, the legislation adopted in response, and
the weakened economy all show how changes in the budget’s environment can substantially
alter the budget path from the one originally expected or proposed.
CBO devotes a chapter to budget uncertainty in its annual budget report.3 To illustrate
the uncertainty of budget estimates, it provides two alternative budget path scenarios to its
baseline estimate. These alternative optimistic and pessimistic scenarios reflect changes to
the conditions (mostly economic variables but including some technical assumptions)
underlying the budget estimates. The result of the CBO exercise, especially over the 10-year
budget window, shows a very large difference of almost $1 trillion in FY2011 in the
expected budget balance between the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios
Budget projections are very dependent on the underlying assumptions about the
direction of the economy and future government policy and how these interact. Any
deviation from the expected underlying assumptions, such as faster or slower economic
growth, higher or lower inflation, or changes in assumed spending and tax policy can have
substantial effects on the budget projections and eventual budget outcomes.
Budget Action
During the first five months of 2001, the House adopted a series of bills (H.R. 3, March
8; H.R. 6, March 29; H.R. 8, April 4; and H.R. 10, May 2) that would have, if enacted into
law, implemented various parts of President Bush’s proposed $1.6 trillion 10-year tax-cut
proposal. While the House was passing the tax bills, the House and Senate were also
considering the congressional budget resolution for FY2002, which eventually contained tax
cut instructions of its own. On March 21, 2001, the House Budget Committee adopted,
along party lines, a budget resolution (H.Con.Res. 83; H.Rept. 107-26), that closely followed
the Administration’s proposals for FY2002 through FY2011.4 On March 28, 2001, the
3 See chapter 5 in the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2003-2012, January 2002.
4 The budget numbers in the resolution differ somewhat from those in the Administration’s proposals
mostly because of differences in the underlying baselines and assumptions used by the Committee
and the Administration rather than any fundamental differences in policy proposals. The House
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House adopted the House Budget Committee budget resolution (222-205) mostly along party
lines. The House rejected four alternative budget resolutions, three from the Democrats and
one from conservative Republicans, before passing the House Budget Committee version.
The resolution authorized a series of tax bills to implement the Administration’s tax-cut plan.
The Senate began debating the FY2002 budget resolution on April 2. The Senate
Budget Committee did not develop its own budget resolution for the upcoming fiscal year
(expected problems in getting the evenly divided committee to agree on a resolution
discouraged the attempt). Instead, the Senate used the House-passed budget resolution as the
starting point for the debate. The Senate modified the House passed resolution by among
other changes, reducing the size of the proposed $1.6 trillion tax cut to approximately $1.2
trillion over 10 years and speeded up discretionary spending growth in FY2002. The Senate
passed (65-35) the modified resolution, on April 6.
A conference to resolve the differences between the House and Senate version of the
resolution began on April 24, 2001. The conference reached agreement on May 2, 2001.
The agreement included an 11-year tax cut of $1.35 trillion (below the House budget
resolution and the amount the President proposed, but above the amount in the Senate budget
resolution). This included an immediate advance tax rebate of approximately $100 billion
over FY2001 and FY2002.
The House began its deliberations on the conference report on May 3, but halted them
when a technical problem with the resolution – two pages were missing – cropped up in its
printed version. The agreement was resubmitted to the conference. After further
deliberations over the weekend of May 5 and 6 and Monday May 7 the further modified
conference agreement on the budget resolution (H.Rept. 107-60) went back to the House.
The House passed it on May 9. The Senate followed on May 10. The individual tax cut bills
previously passed by the House were overtaken by the adoption of the conference report on
the congressional budget resolution and its included reconciliation instructions for a $1.35.
Almost immediately after the adoption of the budget resolution, legislation to
implement the tax cut instructions in the budget resolution cleared the House (H.R. 1836;
May 16). The Senate Finance Committee reported its version of the tax legislation (S.896)
on May 16. The Senate in considering the legislation (beginning on May 21), substituted the
text of S. 896 for the text of the House bill and adopted the amended bill on May 23. A
conference to resolve the differences began shortly thereafter and reached agreement on May
26. The conference report (H.Rept. 107-84) was agreed to by both chambers on May 26 and
cleared for the President. The President signed the legislation into law on June 7, 2001 (P.L.
107-16).
Additional legislation beyond the adopted tax-cut reconciliation bill was necessary to
fulfill the budget outline contained in the budget resolution. Congress began implementing
the spending parts of the budget resolution by beginning consideration of the 13 regular
appropriations bills in early June. Appropriations are needed each year to fund the
Budget Committee used the January 2001 CBO budget report, and its baseline, to generate its budget
resolution numbers; the President’s proposals were derived from OMB’s baseline estimates and
projections. CBO and OMB differ, although only slightly, in their respective underlying
assumptions used in creating their respective budget baselines.
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discretionary activities of the government and other activities not covered by some type of
permanent funding (appropriations fund approximately one-third of total federal spending).
As the summer wore on, disputes over how to divide up the amount provided in the
budget resolution for discretionary spending among the 13 regular appropriations bills
delayed their adoption. The terrorist attacks in September set back the already delayed
consideration and adoption of the appropriations bills for FY2002.
In response to the attacks, President Bush requested a $20 billion (relatively) unfettered
emergency supplemental appropriations to be used to respond to the terrorist attacks.
Congress doubled the amount to $40 billion, added some oversight restrictions, and passed
the legislation (H.R. 2888) on September 14, 2001; it was signed into law on September 18
(P.L. 107-38). The second $20 billion was allocated in the regular appropriations bills.
The disrupted consideration of appropriations legislation resulted in none of the regular
appropriations having been enacted into law when the new fiscal year began on October 1,
2002. To avoid a funding crisis, Congress passed (H.J.Res. 65; September 28) and the
President signed (P.L. 107-44; September 28) a continuing resolution on appropriations (CR)
that provided funds for appropriations-dependent federal activities through October 16, 2001.
Congress continued considering the regular appropriations bills through October, November,
and into December. The anthrax threat on Capitol Hill and continuing disagreements over
policy further delayed adoption of the regular appropriations bills. Seven more CRs were
adopted (P.L. 107-48, October 12; P.L. 107-53, October 22; P.L. 107-58, October 31; P.L.
107-70, November 17; P.L. 107-79, December 7; and H.Con.Res. 79, December 20)
continuing funding through January 10, 2002 (the last to give the President time to consider
the final appropriations bills adopted by Congress). Congress adopted the remaining regular
appropriation bills on December 20 and then recessed. Congress considered but did not
agree on economic stimulus legislation before adjourning.
Congress responded to the Administration’s economic stimulus proposal (in the
FY2003 budget – the bipartisan economic security plan) by passing, on March 8, 2002, the
Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act of 2002 (H.R. 3090). The legislation would
increase the deficit in FY2002 by an estimated $51 billion, mostly through tax cuts. The
President signed the bill on March 9 (P.L. 107-147).
The House adopted its version of the FY2003 budget resolution containing
modifications to the budget for FY2002 on March 20, 2002. The modifications reflected the
changes to the budget over the last nine months and the possibility of further changes for the
fiscal year. The Senate Budget Committee adopted its version of the budget resolution
(S.Con.Res. 100) on March 22. The full Senate has not considered the committee’s reported
budget resolution as of the end of May 2002.
The House passed supplemental appropriations for FY2002 (H.R. 4775) of $29 billion
on May 24. The Senate adopted its slightly larger ($31 billion) supplemental appropriations
bill (S. 2551) on June 3. It substituted the text of S. 2551 for the text of H.R. 4775. Much
of the funding provided by the supplemental is for defense and homeland security.
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Outlays
The Administration originally proposed total outlays of $1.96 trillion for FY2002, an
increase of $105 billion over the then estimated FY2001 level. Proposed policy changes
accounted for approximately $23 billion of the increase. Over the 10-year budget horizon
(FY2002-FY2011), total outlays were originally projected to increase by $745 billion with
approximately $592 billion of the increase resulting from the President’s policy proposals
(with $420 billion of the policy increase due to higher interest payments mostly the result of
the proposed tax cut). Although total outlays would have grown by 5.7% from FY2001 to
FY2002, their average annual rate of increase over the 10-year period (through FY2011) was
3.8%. (The 4% increase proposed by the Administration referred to the increase in budget
authority for discretionary spending; the expectations of falling interest payments held down
the rate of growth in outlays.)
Table 2. Outlays for FY2000-2006 and FY2011
(in billions of dollars)
FY2000 FY2001 FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2011
OMB Clinton Baseline 1/16/01
$1,789 a
$1,868
$1,933
$1,994
$2,058
$2,145
$2,204
$2,623
CBO Baseline 1/31/01
1,853
1,923
1,984
2,056
2,137
2,184
2,558
President’s Budget Blueprint 2/28/01
1,856
1,959
2,012
2,071
2,164
2,221
2,709
House budget resolution 3/28/01
1,857
1,941
2,007
2,086
2,176
2,237
2,718
Senate budget resolution 4/6/01 b
1,949
1,979
2,046
2,123
2,209
2,271
2,776
President’s Budget 4/9/01
1,856
1,961
2,016
2,077
2,169
2,224
2,706
OMB Baseline 4/9/01
1,853
1,938
1,991
2,051
2,130
2,182
2,580
Conference budget resolution 5/10/01 b
1,948
1,952
2,021
2,103
2,196
2,256
2,742
CBO revised baseline 5/18/01
1,839
1,922
1,985
2,054
2,133
2,181
2,564
CBO reest. of Pres.’s budget 5/18/01
1,843
1,944
2,013
2,084
2,177
2,234
2,725
President’s MSR for FY2002 8/22/01
1,855
1,962
2,025
2,111
2,208
2,272
2,761
Pres. MSR baseline for FY2002 8/22/01
1,855
1,949
2,011
2,084
2,172
2,231
2,697
CBO Update for FY2002 8/28/01
1,858
1,958
2,024
2,106
2,194
2,254
2,713
Actual for FY2001 10/29/01
1,863
—
—
—
—
—
—
FY2002 Estimates in FY2003 Budget Documents
CBO Outlook for FY2002 1/31/02
—
2,003
2,085
2,152
2,238
2,319
2,838
OMB FY2003 baseline FY2002 est. 2/4/02
—
2,020
2,070
2,126
2,197
2,266
NA
OMB FY2003 prop., FY2002 est. 2/4/02
—
2,052
2,128
2,189
2,277
2,369
NA
CBO reestimate of President’s budget,
—
2,033
2,134
2,201
2,291
2,394
2,993
FY2002, 3/6/02
CBO revised baseline FY2002, 3/6/02
—
2,001
2,080
2,148
2,231
2,312
2,825
House budget res. for FY2003 3/20/02
—
2,033
2,122
2,192
2,289
2,383
NA
a. Actual outlays for FY2000.
b. The Senate and conference budget resolutions call for an $85 billion tax rebate in FY2001, which is accounted for
in the Allowances function (920) on the outlay side of the budget.
MSR – Mid-Session Review.
NA – Not available.
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The revised numbers in the August 2001 MSR increased projected outlays in most
years, but not by very large amounts. Outlays in FY2002 were expected to be only $2 billion
larger than in the April budget. Over the 10 years, outlays, cumulatively, would have been
1.7% larger in the MSR projections than the April proposal. (Most of the changes in the
budget numbers between April and August occurred in receipts). CBO’s Update (August
2001) baselines were similar to the Administration’s baseline (current services) estimates in
the MSR, with cumulative outlays differing by less than 1%, although individual years differ
by greater amounts. Outlays in FY2002 were expected to reach $1,962 billion in the MSR,
and $1,958 billion in CBO’s Update (see Table 2). The emergency supplemental (P.L. 107-
38, September 2001) would add close to an estimated $40 billion in outlays to the FY2002
total. The increased overall level of appropriations agreed to by Congress and the President
in early October 2001 would also increase FY2002 outlays. The possibility of higher outlays
from an economic stimulus package never materialized before the first session ended.
The conference report on the congressional budget resolution for FY2002 showed
federal outlays increasing by a little over $3 billion between FY2001 and FY2002. But this
small increase was somewhat misleading. Outlays for FY2001 were increased in the
resolution by the $85 billion needed to accommodate the advance tax rebate checks as part
of the later-adopted tax cut. Without that one-time $85 billion increase in FY2001 outlays,
the conference report’s outlay growth was similar to that in the President’s proposals.
The emergency supplemental appropriations in the fall of 2001 raised total outlays
above the levels in the budget resolution or the revised estimates in the August budget reports
from the Administration and CBO. The $15 billion airline stabilization legislation (P.L. 107-
42) will add up to $5 billion in outlays to the FY2002 total (some of the money from this
legislation was spent in the last days of FY2001). The loan guarantee portion of the law ($10
billion), if used, will direct financial market resources to the airlines but will only generate
outlays for the government if a borrower defaults. Both CBO and Administration estimates
from early 2002, reflecting changed circumstances, pushed total outlays for FY2002 slightly
above $2 trillion.
Receipts
Congress adopted (May 26, 2001) an 11-year, $1.35 trillion tax cut bill (H.R. 1836) that
the President signed on June 7 (P.L. 107-16). The legislation flowed from the reconciliation
instructions contained in the congressional budget resolution for FY2002 (H.Con.Res. 83;
H.Rept. 107-60) that Congress adopted on May 10.5 The size of the tax cut (as estimated at
that time) fell below the $1.6 trillion 10-year tax cut in President Bush’s budget proposal.
The tax cut was estimated to reduce FY2001 revenues by $74 billion, FY2002 taxes by $38
billion, and then to phase in other reduction over 10 years.
5 To avoid exceeding the $1.35 trillion limit on tax cuts allowed by the budget resolution, the tax
reductions are rescinded on or before December 31, 2010.
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Even with the tax cuts, the August 2001 MSR showed that FY2002 receipts would be
$122 billion (6.1%) larger than in FY2001.6 CBO’s mid-year report showed similar
increases between FY2001 and FY2002. The August 2001 MSR showed that the policy and
economic assumption changes between the April and August budget reports reduced receipts
in the next few years (from what had been expected) but increased them in FY2005 and
beyond. The net result was a $74 billion increase in 10-year cumulative receipts in the
August estimates compared to the April estimates. The January 2002 estimates from CBO
show a year-to-year fall in receipts of $8 billion between FY2001 and FY2002. OMB’s
updated numbers from February 2002 show receipts falling by $45 billion between FY2001
and FY2002. The expected weaker economy (than previously expected) produced most of
the change in receipt outlook. The Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act of 2002 that
passed Congress on March 8, 2002, is likely to further reduce receipts in FY2002.
Neither the tax cut nor the economic conditions kept receipts from growing in current
dollars over the 10-year budget period in either the Administration’s MSR or in the CBO
Update. The MSR showed them rising from $2,135 billion in FY2002 to $3,245 billion in
FY2011. CBO’s August 2001 report showed (baseline) receipts rising from $2,134 billion
in FY2002 to $3,341 billion in FY2011.
The January 2002 CBO estimates still showed receipts rising over the same 10-year
period, but more slowly, rising from $1,983 billion (FY2002) to $3,277 billion (FY2011).
The Administration’s FY2003 budget proposal included additional tax cuts for FY2002 as
well as subsequent years. These would produce FY2002 receipts of $1,946 billion, $45
billion below the FY2001 level and $79 billion the FY2000 amount.
Table 3. Receipts for FY2000-2006 and FY2011
(in billions of dollars)
FY2000 FY2001 FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2011
OMB Clinton Baseline 1/16/01 $2,025 a
$2,125
$2,210
$2,301
$2,401
$2,525
$2,649
$3,434
CBO Baseline 1/31/01
2,135
2,236
2,343
2,453
2,570
2,689
3,447
President’s Budget Blueprint 2/28/01
2,137
2,190
2,258
2,339
2,436
2,528
3,233
House budget resolution 3/28/01
2,129
2,168
2,260
2,344
2,437
2,521
3,206
Senate budget resolution 4/6/01
2,134
2,177
2,284
2,380
2,474
2,565
3,279
President’s Budget 4/9/01
2,137
2,192
2,258
2,339
2,438
2,529
3,233
OMB Baseline 4/9/01
2,137
2,221
2,324
2,438
2,569
2,698
3,483
Conference on budget resolution 5/10/01
2,135
2,171
2,267
2,369
2,473
2,551
3,256
CBO revised baseline 5/18/01
2,115
2,226
2,338
2,453
2,570
2,689
3,447
CBO reest. of Pres.’s budget 5/18/01
2,115
2,201
2,275
2,359
2,440
2,517
3,165
President’s MSR for FY2002 8/22/01
2,013
2,135
2,220
2,328
2,463
2,553
3,245
Pres. MSR baseline for FY2002 8/22/01
2,013
2,135
2,222
2,334
2,476
2,573
3,383
CBO Update for FY2002 8/28/01
2,011
2,134
2,196
2,307
2,438
2,543
3,341
Actual for FY2001 10/29/01
1,990
—
—
—
—
—
—
6 The large uncertainties currently surrounding the budget outlook at that time, made the August
2001 estimates a poor guides to the budget’s future look.
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FY2000 FY2001 FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2011
FY2002 Estimates in FY2003 Budget Documents
CBO Outlook for FY2002 1/31/02
—
1,983
2,070
2,206
2,342
2,447
3,277
OMB FY03 baseline FY2002 est. 2/4/02
—
2,011
2,121
2,234
2,366
2,461
NA
OMB FY03 prop., FY2002 est. 2/4/02
—
1,946
2,048
2,175
2,338
2,455
NA
CBO reestimate of President’s budget,
—
1,942
2,013
2,150
2,314
2,442
3,143
FY2002, 3/6/02
CBO revised baseline FY2002, 3/6/02
—
2,006
2,086
2,209
2,342
2,448
3,279
House budget res. for FY2003 3/20/02
—
1,968
2,077
2,200
2,356
2,471
NA
a. Actual receipts for FY2000.
MSR – Mid-Session Review.
NA – Not available
The February 2001 Administration’s original budget proposals (in the Blueprint and the
April Budget) included a proposed $1.6 trillion tax cut over 10 years. Like the legislation
that cleared Congress, the President’s proposals would lower marginal rates, address the
marriage penalty issue, and have an effect on many of the same topics included in the
legislation (see CRS Report RS20819, President Bush’s Tax Proposal: A Brief Overview,
for more information). The effort to make permanent the tax cuts adopted in 2001 will have
little effect in FY2002.
Surpluses Or Deficits
Surpluses or deficits are the residuals left after Congress and the President determine
the level of spending and receipts. Reducing the deficit and eventually reaching a balanced
budget or generating and keeping a surplus (the government had its first surplus in 30 years
in FY1998) has been a major focus of the budget debate for over a decade. The original
baseline projections from both OMB and CBO (in early 2001 for FY2002) showed
substantial and growing surpluses, both on- and off-budget, through FY2011. The question
became, what to do with the surpluses? Surpluses can be used to cut taxes, to raise spending,
or, if not used for tax cuts or spending increases, to reduce federal debt held by the public.
The President’s original FY2002 proposals and the congressional budget resolution for
FY2002 would have combined the three: cut taxes, raised spending for selected activities
(while cutting others), and reduced federal debt held by the public by attempting to reserve
an amount equal to Social Security surplus and, originally, some of the non-Social Security
(or on-budget) surplus for reducing debt held by the public.
The events and policy changes of 2001 drastically altered the surplus outlook that had
been forecast early in 2001. Instead of large and growing surpluses, the early 2002 budget
estimates from the Administration and CBO (contained in their FY2003 budget proposals
or reports) now expect deficits (or very small surpluses) over the next few years after which
small but growing surpluses return. The previously expected (early in 2001) FY2002 surplus
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of $231 billion to $312 billion now range from a small (baseline) surplus of $5 billion (CBO;
March 2002) to a deficit of $106 billion (OMB, proposed).7
Table 4. Surpluses/Deficits(-) for FY2000-FY2006 and FY2011
(in billions of dollars)
FY2000 FY2001 FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2011
OMB Clinton Baseline 1/16/01
$236 a
$256
$277
$307
$343
$380
$446
$810
CBO Baseline 1/31/01
281
313
359
397
433
505
889
President’s Budget Blueprint 2/28/01
281
231
246
268
273
307
524
House budget resolution 3/28/01
272
227
253
259
261
285
488
Senate budget resolution 4/6/01
186
198
238
257
265
294
503
President’s Budget 4/9/01
281
231
242
262
269
305
526
OMB Baseline 4/9/01
284
283
334
387
439
515
903
Conference on budget resolution 5/10/01
186
219
247
266
277
295
514
CBO revised baseline 5/18/01
275
304
353
400
437
508
883
CBO reest. of Pres.’s budget 5/18/01
272
257
262
274
262
283
440
President’s MSR for FY2002 8/22/01
158
173
195
217
254
281
484
Pres. MSR baseline for FY2002 8/22/01
158
187
211
250
304
342
686
CBO Update for FY2002 8/28/01
153
176
172
201
244
289
628
Actual for FY2001 10/29/01
127
—
—
—
—
—
—
FY2002 Estimates in FY2003 Budget Documents
CBO Outlook for FY2002 1/23/02
—
-21
-14
54
103
128
439
OMB FY2003 baseline FY2002 est. 2/4/02
—
-9
51
109
169
196
NA
OMB FY2003 prop., FY2002 est. 2/4/02
—
-106
-80
-14
61
86
NA
CBO reestimate of President’s budget,
—
-90
-121
-51
24
48
150
FY2002, 3/6/02
CBO revised baseline FY2002, 3/6/02
—
5
6
61
111
135
454
House budget res. for FY2003 3/20/02
—
-66
-46
8
67
89
NA
a. Actual surplus for FY2000.
Last August (2001), OMB and CBO released revised surplus numbers indicating that
there would be little or no non-Social Security surplus available in FY2002 for any purpose.
In CBO’s estimates, the total surplus fell below the size of the Social Security surplus in
FY2001, FY2003, and FY2004 (by relatively small amounts; a total surplus smaller than the
reported size of the Social Security surplus leaves the government with a surplus and the
ability to reduce the amount of outstanding debt held by the public.)
The Administration’s (multi-volume) FY2002 budget, released in April 2001, proposed
reducing the baseline surplus by $52 billion in FY2002 (from $283 billion to $231 billion)
and by a cumulative $2.2 trillion over the projection period. Reductions in the total surplus
would come from the then expected on-budget part of the surplus – the Administration did
7 OMB’s FY2003 budget current services baseline expects a deficit of $9 billion in FY2002.
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not propose any changes in the off-budget surplus in FY2002 (and only insignificant changes
throughout the budget forecast years). Since the congressional budget resolution adopted
many of the President’s proposals, the surpluses were similar in both. (Even with the return
of deficits, the off-budget account, mainly Social Security, remain in surplus.)
Surpluses not used for increased spending or tax cuts and that actually occur, would be
used by the Treasury, pretty much automatically, to reduce federal debt held by the public,
which is what happened to the surpluses generated in FYs1998 through 2001. The Treasury
can also take, and has taken, a more active role in retiring debt held by the public by
purchasing securities from the financial markets and retiring some callable federal bonds.
Table 5. Projected Cumulative On-Budget Surpluses/Deficits (-);
FY2002-2006 and FY2002-2011
(in billions of dollars)
FY2002-FY2006
FY2002-FY2011
OMB Clinton Baseline 1/16/01
$694
$2,447
CBO baseline 1/31/01
988
3,122
President’s Budget Blueprint 2/28/01
261
842
House budget resolution 3/28/01
264
754
Senate budget resolution 4/6/01
234
787
President’s Budget 4/9/01
244
841
OMB baseline 2/28/01
895
3,045
Conference budget resolution 5/10/01
283
897
CBO revised baseline 5/18/01
980
3,141
CBO reest. of Pres.’s budget 5/18/01
321
698
President’s MSR for FY2002 8/22/01 a
60
575
President’s MSR baseline for FY2002 8/22/01
235
1,304
CBO Update for FY2002 8/28/01
49
847
CBO Outlook for FY2002 1/31/02
-722
-742
OMB FY03 baseline FY2002 est. 2/4/02
-459
NA
OMB FY03 prop. FY2002 est. 2/4/02
-1,027
NA
CBO reestimate of President’s budget, FY2002, 3/6/02
-1,154
1,227
CBO revised baseline FY2002, 3/6/02
-775
1,045
House budget res. for FY2003 3/20/02
-922
NA
a. Includes the Postal Service accounts, which have a minimal affect on the totals for the periods.
MSR – Mid-Session Review.
NA – Not available
At the beginning of 2001, the prospect of very large on-budget surpluses continuing
indefinitely produced a general agreement among budget participants to reserve for debt
reduction at least that portion of the total surplus attributed to the Social Security accounts.
Some suggestions were made at the time to expand the reserved amount to include
Medicare’s surplus. The revised budget outlook from August ended the effort to expand the
reserved amount and made more difficult the effort to reserve even the Social Security
surplus exclusively for debt reduction. The Administration’s MSR showed on-budget
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surpluses of less than $50 billion through FY2004. CBO’s revisions showed deficits in the
on-budget accounts (meaning the government will use some of the Social Security surpluses
to finance its other activities) in FY2001, FY2003, and FY2004, before the on-budget
surpluses begin growing slowly. In either set of estimates, the on-budget surplus (if there is
one) did not provide much room to finance new spending or additional tax reduction
initiatives during these years without using the Social Security surpluses or finding offsets
within existing spending or receipts. Table 5 shows estimates and projections for
cumulative on-budget surpluses for FY2002- FY2006 and for FY2002 through FY2011 from
OMB, CBO and the various congressional budget resolutions.
The President’s original proposals and the congressional budget resolution would have
reserved the off-budget portion (Social Security) of the surplus for reducing the debt.
Approximately two-thirds of the then estimated on-budget baseline surplus (somewhat over
$2 trillion) in the President’s budget and the congressional budget resolution would be used
for tax cuts and higher spending (a substantial portion of the expected higher spending would
be higher-than-baseline interest costs) over the 10 years. The remaining portion of the on-
budget surplus would be reserved for contingencies or additional debt reduction. The August
2001 revised estimates showed that the adopted tax cut (P.L. 107-16) used about as much of
the on-budget surplus as earlier estimates expected; changes in the underlying budget
assumptions (the economic and technical assumptions) eliminated most of the rest of the
previously expected on-budget surpluses.
One result of the originally expected large surpluses was the virtual disappearance of
much federal debt held by the public sometime in the latter half of the decade.8 The August
2001 budget reports, like the earlier ones, showed much of the debt disappearing late in the
decade. Such an eventuality would have presented the government with the problem of what
to do with surplus cash that cannot be used for debt reduction. CBO called these cash
balances “uncommitted funds” which both it and OMB assumed would be invested in
unspecified ways in the private sector to provide a financial return to the government. The
re-emergence of deficits and relatively small surpluses in the future have made moot the
issue of eliminating most federal debt held by the public.
The Budget and the Economy
The budget and the economy affect each other. The relationship is an unequal one, with
the economy shoving and pushing around the budget with every economic twinge while even
substantial changes in policy may disappear in the economy with little notice or consequence.
This influence that economic conditions can have on the budget has become obvious over
the past year. The deterioration in the economy became more pronounced by the time CBO
and OMB released their respective August budget reports. Both reports reflected the effect
of the economic slump on the budget by reducing the size of the expected surplus for the
upcoming fiscal year. The early 2002 estimates from CBO and OMB reflected further
8 Somewhere between $800 billion and $1.2 trillion in federal debt held by the public was expected
to remain outstanding by the end of FY2011. The amount outstanding at the end of December 2000
was $3.44 trillion. Federal debt held by federal government accounts, which is not affected by the
government’s overall surplus (or deficit) will continue to increase throughout the period.
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deterioration in the budget outlook for FY2002 resulting from the weak economy. Even if
the economy begins recovering in FY2002 (as many analysts expect), it is unclear how much
it might improve the FY2002 budget outlook.
Until the revised budget estimates in August 2001 and the subsequent ones in early
2002, the original positive budget outlook had been buoyed by the favorable economic
conditions that were then expected over the next couple of years. Such a trend would have
continued the overall improvement in the budget situation since the early 1990s. Much of
the improvement had come from strong and sustained economic growth. When those
favorable economic conditions faltered over the last year, so did the good budget fortunes
of the previous few years. What good economic conditions give, bad economic conditions
can take away. The unexpectedly lengthy economic sluggishness in 2000, the start of a
recession in March 2001, and the budgetary responses to the September 2001 terrorist
attacks, have raised outlays, reduced receipts, and eliminated the surplus for FY2002.
CBO’s budget report, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2002-2011
(January 2001) in its chapter on The Uncertainties of Budget Projections, indicated how
significantly the budget can be altered by changes in economic conditions. The chapter
contained an optimistic and pessimistic alternative scenario to its baseline projection (see
Table 6). The optimistic scenario assumed that the very good economic and budget
conditions of the last few years would continue indefinitely (which has been proven incorrect
by events, at least in the short-term). The pessimistic scenario assumes that the favorable
conditions of the last few years have been an unusual and that the economy (and the budget)
revert to the conditions that prevailed previously (which may be overly pessimistic).
Table 6. CBO’s Alternative Scenarios,
Cumulative Surpluses/Deficits(-); FY2002-2006 and FY2002-2011
(in billions of dollars)
FY2002-FY2006 FY2002-FY2011
CBO Optimistic Scenario Total Surplus 1/31/01
$2,927
$8,856
CBO Baseline 1/31/01
2,007
5,610
CBO Pessimistic Scenario Total Surplus 1/31/01
920
1,627
CBO Optimistic Scenario Total Surplus 1/31/02
956
4,589
CBO Baseline 1/31/02
250
1,602
CBO Pessimistic Scenario Total Surplus 1/31/02
-538
-1,795
Source: CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2003-2012, Jan. 2002.
CBO repeated this analysis in its January 2002 report, The Budget and Economic
Outlook: Fiscal Years 2003-2012 (January 2002). The numbers reflect the changed outlook
for the budget surplus or deficit since last January (see Table 6). The optimistic scenario
now shows a smaller cumulative surplus for the FY2002 through FY2011 ($4,589 billion)
than for the baseline from the January 2001 report ($5,610 billion). The pessimistic scenario
in the current report shows cumulative deficits over the 10-year period, while the one from
last year projected cumulative surpluses.
The data in Table 6 reflect the wide range of possible budget outcomes resulting from
differences between the assumed and actual underlying conditions and that these ranges will
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change over time. Most of the differences reflected in one year’s optimistic, mid-range
(baseline) and pessimistic scenarios results from different assumptions about economic
conditions. Even though FY2002 had only nine months to run when CBO made its
alternative estimates (for the FY2003 budget cycle), the optimistic estimate resulted in a
surplus of $7 billion, while the pessimistic scenario had a deficit of $56 billion. Over this
relatively short period of time, these differences were generated by differences in real gross
domestic product (GDP), the ratio of individual income taxes to taxable personal income,
and the rate of growth of Medicare and Medicaid spending, among other differing
assumptions about economic variables.
The presidential budget documents usually include a table showing the budget’s
sensitivity to economic assumptions (in recent years, this is found in an early chapter of the
Analytical Perspectives volume of the budget). The effects of the variables are generally
symmetrical, that is higher rates of growth than expected will change the budget by a similar
amount but in the opposite direction to the same size slower rate of growth. For FY2002,
the President’s FY2003 budget indicates that sustained reduction of 1% in the real rate of
real GDP growth would increase the currently estimated deficit by $11.5 billion (a sustained
1% higher rate of real GDP growth would have a similar effect on the surplus in the opposite
direction). Changes in other variables generally have smaller estimated effects on the
budgetary balance than changes in real GDP growth. Larger changes in the underlying
economic variables would produce larger changes in the budget numbers.
CONGRESSIONAL HEARINGS, REPORTS, AND DOCUMENTS
U.S. Congress. House. Committee on Ways and Means. Economic Growth and Tax Relief
Act of 2001; report to accompany H.R. 3. March 6, 2001, Washington, U.S. Govt.
Print. Off., 2002. (107th Congress, 1st session. H.Rept. 107-7).
—— Committee on the Budget. Concurrent Resolution on the Budget – FY2002; report to
accompany H.Con.Res. 83. March 23, 2001 Washington, U.S. Govt. Print. Off., 2001.
(107th Congress, 1st session. H.Rept. 107-26).
FOR ADDITIONAL READING
Also see the CRS Electronic Briefing Book on Taxation at:
[http://www.congress.gov/brbk/html/ebtxr1.shtml]
U.S. Congressional Budget Office. An Analysis of the President’s Budgetary Proposals for
FY2002. Washington, May 18, 2001.
——The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2002-2011. Washington, U.S. Govt.
Print. Off., January 31, 2001.
——The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update. Washington, U.S. Govt. Print. Off.,
August 28, 2001.
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—— Budget Options. Washington, U.S. Govt. Print. Off., March 2001.
——The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2003-2012. Washington, U.S. Govt.
Print. Off., January 31, 2002.
U.S. Office of Management and Budget. FY2002 Economic Outlook, Highlights from
FY1994 to FY2001, FY2002 Baseline Projections. Washington, U.S. Govt. Print. Off.,
January 16, 2001.
—— A Blueprint for New Beginnings: A Responsible Budget for America’s Priorities.
Washington, U.S. Govt. Print. Off., February 27, 2001.
—— The Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2002. Washington, U.S.
Govt. Print. Off., April 9, 2001.
—— Mid-Session Review. Washington, U.S. Govt. Print. Off., August 22, 2001.
—— The Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2003. Washington, U.S.
Govt. Print. Off., February 4, 2002.
U.S. Council of Economic Advisors. Economic Report of the President. Washington, U.S.
Govt. Print. Off., January 2001.
CRS Products
CRS Report RL30583. The Economics of the Federal Budget Surplus, by Brian Cashell.
CRS Report RL30839. Income Tax Cuts, the Business Cycle, and Economic Growth: A
Macroeconomic Analysis, by Marc Labonte and Gail Makinen.
CRS Report 98-720. Manual on the Federal Budget Process, by Robert Keith and Allen
Schick.
CRS Report RL30854. Uncertainty in Budget Projections, by Philip Winters.
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