INSIGHTi

The United Kingdom’s 2024 Election
June 28, 2024
Polls indicate that the opposition Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, is likely to win the general election
scheduled to take place in the United Kingdom (UK) on July 4, 2024. The Conservative Party has led the
UK government for the past 14 years, first under Prime Minister David Cameron (2010-2016), followed
by Theresa May (2016-2019), Boris Johnson (2019-2022), Liz Truss (2022), and current Prime Minister
Rishi Sunak (since 2022). Labour last governed under Prime Ministers Gordon Brown (2007-2010) and
Tony Blair (1997-2007).
The Conservatives’ tenure in government has been defined to a large extent by the party’s support for
Brexit, the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union (EU) in 2020 following a national referendum in
2016. A number of factors have eroded public support for the Conservatives, including a sluggish
economy, the rising cost of living, the perceived decline of public services including the National Health
Service (NHS), a series of scandals, and party infighting over issues such as taxes and immigration.
The Labour Party appears poised to capitalize on this sense of disillusionment; a 2024 study of voter
attitudes in the UK found public trust and confidence in government at record lows. Some analysts
observe that since Starmer became Labour Party leader in 2020, he has sought to shift the party’s policy
positions from the left toward the center. In a 2023 manifesto, the Labour Party announced that its
priorities in government would consist of boosting economic growth, developing clean energy,
combatting crime, improving the education system, and reforming the NHS.
Issues for Congress
For decades, U.S. Administrations and many Members of Congress have viewed the UK as the United
States’ closest and most reliable ally. This perception stems from factors including a sense of shared
history, values, and culture; a large and mutually beneficial economic relationship; and extensive
cooperation on foreign policy and security issues. The term special relationship often has been used to
describe the high degree of mutual trust between the two countries. The UK and the United States have a
particularly close defense relationship and a unique intelligence-sharing partnership, and the two
countries are key partners in defense industry cooperation and defense sales.
Although analysts expect a high degree of continuity in most aspects of UK foreign policy regardless of
the election outcome, Members of Congress may wish to monitor post-election developments with regard
to U.S.-UK cooperation on numerous global issues. Areas of potential interest may include the following:
Congressional Research Service
https://crsreports.congress.gov
IN12386
CRS INSIGHT
Prepared for Members and
Committees of Congress

---

Congressional Research Service
2
NATO and Defense Cooperation. The UK remains a leading country in NATO and heads NATO’s
Enhanced Forward Presence battlegroup in Estonia. The UK had the world’s sixth-highest defense
expenditure in 2023, spending $74.9 billion. At 2.3% of gross domestic product (GDP), the UK’s defense
spending exceeds the target agreed to by NATO members of spending at least 2% of GDP on defense.
Some observers nonetheless express concern that the UK armed forces lack the size and capabilities
needed to effectively meet security challenges. Both Sunak and Starmer have pledged to increase defense
spending to 2.5% of GDP.
Ukraine. Behind the United States and Germany, the UK is the third-largest donor of bilateral assistance
to Ukraine since Russia’s 2022 invasion. Relations between Russia and the UK are especially tense; the
UK government’s 2023 foreign and defense policy review described Russia as “the most acute threat to
the UK’s security.” Labour Party leaders have stated that there will be no change in the UK’s support for
Ukraine if Labour wins the election and that a Labour government’s commitment to Ukraine would be
“ironclad.”
Indo-Pacific. The 2023 review additionally states that, “China poses an epoch-defining challenge to the
type of international order we want to see.” The UK has been increasing its engagement in the Indo-
Pacific region in an effort to counter China’s influence. Labour’s shadow foreign secretary, David
Lammy, wrote in 2023 that a Labour government would conduct a full audit of UK-China relations and
base its strategy toward China on “three Cs: compete, challenge and, where we can, cooperate.”
AUKUS. In 2021, Australia, the UK, and the United States announced the creation of an enhanced
trilateral security partnership, called AUKUS. Under AUKUS, the three countries plan to develop shared
military capabilities and deepen interoperability, and the UK and Australia (with U.S. assistance) plan to
build a new class of nuclear-powered attack submarines.
Israel-Hamas Conflict. Prime Minister Sunak has outlined his government’s priorities in the Israel-
Hamas conflict as preventing further escalation; securing humanitarian access; and working
diplomatically for regional stability, including a two-state solution. Keir Starmer has stated that a Labour
government would “work with international partners towards the recognition of a Palestinian state as part
of a negotiated, just and lasting peace” but would not unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state outside of a
negotiated peace process.
U.S.-UK Economic Relationship. In 2023, the United States and the UK announced the Atlantic
Declaration for a Twenty-First Century U.S.-UK Economic Partnership. The declaration sets out plans for
deepening U.S.-UK cooperation on critical and emerging technologies, supply chain security, digital
transformation, clean energy, defense, health security, and space. Legislation introduced in the 118th
Congress (H.R. 3653/S. 629) would authorize the president to negotiate and enter into a comprehensive
trade agreement with the UK.
Northern Ireland. Post-Brexit trade and customs arrangements have elicited strong objections from
some in the unionist (pro-British) community of Northern Ireland (part of the UK). Unionist opposition
affected political stability, as unionists withdrew from Northern Ireland’s devolved government in early
2022 to protest the post-Brexit arrangements and subsequently blocked the formation of a new devolved
government after elections in May 2022. Efforts by the UK government to address the objections have
helped alleviate tensions, with the devolved government restored in early 2024. Many Members of
Congress have expressed an enduring interest in peace and stability in Northern Ireland (see, for example,
S.Res. 157, adopted by unanimous consent in the Senate in 2023).

---

Congressional Research Service
3
Author Information

Derek E. Mix

Specialist in European Affairs




Disclaimer
This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan shared staff
to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and under the direction of
Congress. Information in a CRS Report should not be relied upon for purposes other than public understanding of
information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in connection with CRS’s institutional role.
CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not subject to copyright protection in the United
States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety without permission from CRS. However,
as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or material from a third party, you may need to obtain the
permission of the copyright holder if you wish to copy or otherwise use copyrighted material.

IN12386 · VERSION 1 · NEW

---