Updated April 16, 2024
Moldova: An Overview
Moldova is one of three post-Soviet states—together with
sentenced Shor in absentia to 15 years in prison and ordered
Ukraine and Georgia—that seek greater integration with the
the confiscation of nearly $300 million in assets.
West in the face of Russian resistance and territorial
occupation. Members of Congress may assess U.S. efforts
The PAS government pledged to strengthen the rule of law
to support Moldova’s democratic trajectory and European
and has adopted some reforms related to Moldova’s EU
integration, as well as conflict resolution processes
membership bid. Moldovan officials have stated that
concerning Moldova’s breakaway, Russia-backed
challenges arising from Russia’s war against Ukraine—
Transnistria region.
including inflation and high energy costs—slowed reform
efforts.
Moldova’s president and governing party were elected on
pro-European platforms in 2020 and 2021. Their reform-
One of Europe’s poorest countries, Moldova has made
oriented agenda was buoyed by the European Union’s
“significant progress in reducing poverty and promoting
(EU’s) June 2022 decision to name Moldova a candidate
inclusive growth,” according to the World Bank. Moldova’s
for EU membership. The United States and the EU have
annual gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 8% in
supported Moldova’s efforts to implement EU-related
2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic but
reforms while taking steps to curtail Russian influence and
rebounded in 2021 with 14% growth. GDP declined by 5%
address the impacts of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
in 2022, due in part to the impact of Russia’s war against
Moldova’s leadership has warned that a Russian victory
Ukraine, and grew by 2% in 2023. An estimated 1 million
could expose Moldova to Russian aggression.
or more Moldovans live abroad; remittances are estimated
at about 15% of GDP.
Political and Economic Background
Moldova’s political environment has been contentious since
Figure 1. Moldova at a Glance
2009, when Western-oriented parties first unseated a
Communist Party-led government. In 2021, President Maia
Sandu’s reform-oriented Party of Action and Solidarity
(PAS) won snap parliamentary elections. PAS’s victory
marked the first time in 20 years that a party received an
absolute majority of votes in a parliamentary election. The
party’s victory, and the formation of a single-party
government, ended years of rule by unstable coalitions that
often included allegedly corrupt political forces. Prime
Minister Dorin Recean has led the government since
February 2023. Moldova is due to hold a presidential
election in late 2024. Parliamentary elections are due by
mid-2025.
President Sandu was directly elected in 2020, defeating
incumbent Igor Dodon in a second-round vote. Dodon was

the de facto head of the Russia-leaning, socially
Notes: Figure created by CRS using the National Bureau of Statistics
conservative Party of Socialists, the former ruling party; he
of the Republic of Moldova (does not include Transnistria).
is currently under investigation on charges related to
corruption and treason. The presidency holds symbolic
Impact of Russia’s War on Ukraine
importance but has relatively limited formal powers under
Russia’s war against Ukraine has created new challenges
Moldova’s parliamentary system. Sandu is seeking a second
term in Moldova’s 2024 presidential election.
for Moldova. After Russia launched its expanded invasion

of Ukraine in February 2022, concerns arose that Russia
would also seek to invade Moldova, using control of
In the 2021 parliamentary elections, PAS won 53% of the
territory in southern Ukraine and its military presence in
vote and 63 of 101 seats. A Socialist-led bloc won 27% of
Transnistria. With a resident population of under 3 million,
the vote and 32 seats. The third party to enter parliament,
Moldova hosts more than 115,000 refugees from Ukraine.
the populist, Russia-leaning Shor Party (banned in 2023,
see below), was led by political and business figure Ilan
Since 2022, Russian-leaning political parties and
Shor, who fled the country in 2019 while appealing a
individuals in Moldova have come under greater scrutiny as
seven-year sentence for his role in a $1 billion bank fraud
part of broader government efforts to curtail Russian
scandal from 2014; in April 2023, an appeals court
influence. Ilan Shor and other Russia-connected actors
allegedly have sought to foment unrest in Moldova,
https://crsreports.congress.gov

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Moldova: An Overview
including by tapping into discontent over economic
Foreign Policy and EU Membership Bid
conditions and organizing protests. In June 2023, the
Moldova generally pursues a pro-European foreign policy.
Constitutional Court of Moldova dissolved the Shor Party
Some political parties and constituencies have supported
for not being in compliance with Moldova’s laws and
closer relations with Russia, although Russia’s war against
constitution. Ahead of local elections in November 2023,
Ukraine may have weakened such support. The EU is
officials accused Russia of illicitly financing pro-Russian
Moldova’s top trade partner and largest source of aid.
parties, disinformation campaigns, and vote-buying efforts
and banned candidates from the pro-Russian Chance party
Moldova is a constitutionally neutral state and does not
(an alleged Shor party offshoot). Authorities also blocked
aspire to join NATO, although it has taken some steps to
Russian media websites ahead of the elections. In March
enhance security cooperation with NATO members since
2024, the court overturned legislation barring individuals
2022. Moldova maintains close relations with the EU,
linked to banned parties from holding office for three years.
especially Romania, a NATO and EU member. Moldovans
are related to Romanians by ethnicity and language, and
Transnistrian Conflict
many hold Romanian citizenship.
Since gaining independence in 1991, Moldova has coped
Looming over Moldova’s development is the question of
with the de facto Russian-backed secession of Transnistria,
Russia’s influence and
a multiethnic and predominantly Russian-speaking region
alleged destabilization efforts.
with up to 15% of Moldova’s population and a substantial
Moldovan and U.S. officials have accused Russia of
industrial base. Transnistria has strong economic links to
providing long-standing illicit support to pro-Russian
the rest of Moldova and the EU, the destination for more
parties. Although near-term threats to Moldova’s security
may have receded as Ukrainian forces halted Russia’s
than two-thirds of Transnistria-origin exports.
military advance in southern Ukraine, concerns about
In past years, a conflict resolution process operated in a
Russian malign influence in Moldova persist. Moldovan
“5+2” format under the chairpersonship of the Organization
authorities have warned of extensive Russian efforts to
for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), with the
destabilize Moldova as it prepares for 2024 elections.
OSCE, Russia, and Ukraine as mediators and the EU and
Moldova was granted EU candidate status alongside
the United States as observers. Moldova has worked with
Ukraine in June 2022, three months after it formally applied
Transnistrian authorities to address issues related to transit,
for membership. The European Commission (the EU’s
education, agriculture, and vital records. The “5+2” process
executive) identified nine conditions for Moldova to meet
has been largely inactive since Russia’s 2022 invasion of
to advance in the accession process. In December 2023, EU
Ukraine. Moldovan and Transnistrian authorities have held
direct talks in a “1+1” format under OSCE auspices.
member states approved opening accession negotiations but

have not yet started them. In backing Moldova and
Ukraine’s comparatively swift progress th
Moldovan authorities previously supported extending a
rough the early
special administrative status to Transnistria to resolve the
steps of the accession process, EU officials have cited both
countries’ substantial reform progress. Nevertheless, the
conflict, but Russia and Transnistria resisted arrangements
that would reduce Transnistria’s self-governing powers and
process of joining the EU can take many years and EU
Russian influence over Moldova. Russia stations about
membership is not a guaranteed outcome.
1,500 troops in Transnistria, most of whom are reportedly
U.S. Relations
local residents; Moldova formally accepts a few hundred of
The United States supports Moldova’s sovereignty and
these personnel as peacekeepers.
territorial integrity within its internationally recognized
Russia’s war against Ukraine has led to new pressures on
borders. In 2022, the United States and Moldova formally
relaunched a bilateral Strategic Dialogue. The 117th
Transnistria. Transnistria is home to many ethnic
Congress adopted H.Res. 833 and S.Res. 638, expressing
Ukrainians, and authorities in Transnistria have appeared to
avoid overtly supporting Russia’s invasion. In 2022,
support for Moldova and for strong U.S.-Moldova relations.
The 118th Congress may assess bilateral ties and consider
Ukraine closed its border with Transnistria. In 2023, the
measures (e.g., H.R. 5174 and S. 804/H.R. 1680) intended
Moldovan parliament criminalized various kinds of
“separatist” activities. In 2024, Moldova formally
to increase cooperation on defense and other matters.
harmonized customs duties on Transnistria-origin goods
Moldova is a leading recipient of U.S. foreign assistance in
(thus requiring local businesses to pay taxes to Moldova).
Europe. Obligated assistance for Moldova in FY2021
An extraordinary congress of Transnistrian legislators
totaled $61 million. Obligated assistance for FY2022 and
convened to call on the region’s leadership to appeal to
FY2023, including humanitarian and other emergency aid,
Russia to take “measures to protect Transnistria in the face
totaled $124 million and $259 million, respectively.
of increasing pressure” from Moldova. Some observers
Congress may consider the Biden Administration’s FY2025
expressed concern that Russia was planning an attempt to
budget request of $66 million. Congress also may assess
officially annex the region. A potential new flashpoint
U.S. sanctions and other policies to address alleged
could arise at the end of 2024, when the Ukrainian
corruption and democratic subversion by some Moldovan
government has stated it will allow a natural gas transit
politicians, as well U.S. efforts to bolster Moldova’s energy
contract with Russia to expire. Transnistria relies on
security, such as the U.S. International Development
subsidized gas imports from Russia that flow via Ukraine.
Finance Corporation’s commitment of $400 million in
political risk insurance, approved in 2022, to support
Moldova’s procurement of natural gas from global sources.
https://crsreports.congress.gov

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Moldova: An Overview

Cory Welt, Specialist in Russian and European Affairs
IF10894
Sarah E. Garding, Analyst in European Affairs


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https://crsreports.congress.gov | IF10894 · VERSION 18 · UPDATED

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