INSIGHTi

Guatemala: 2023 Elections and U.S. Interests
Updated July 28, 2023
On June 25, 2023, Guatemala held national elections for president, the entire 160-seat congress, 340
mayors, 20 Central American parliament members, and other local posts. After a tumultuous path to first-
round elections marred by alleged irregularities, no presidential candidate received more than 50% of the
vote. A runoff election is scheduled to be held on August 20, 2023. The State Department and some
Members of Congress in both houses have expressed concerns about recent threats to Guatemala’s
electoral process. The outcome of these elections could have implications for U.S. interests in Guatemala
and U.S.-Guatemalan cooperation in addressing key challenges, such as migration, corruption, and human
rights, that are of long-standing congressional interest.
Figure 1.Guatemala Election Timeline

Sources. CRS, based on information from Human Rights Watch and La Prensa Libre.
In the lead-up to the first-round vote, the European Union and human rights organizations, among others,
expressed concerns about preelection conditions in Guatemala. They particularly scrutinized the actions
of Guatemala’s election oversight body, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), which controversially
rejected several leading presidential candidates, including Maya Indigenous candidate Thelma Cabrera of
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the left-wing Moviemiento para la Liberacíon de los Pueblos party; Roberto Arzú, son of former
President Álvaro Arzú (1996-2000) of the right-wing Podemos party; and Carlos Pineda of the center-
right Prosperidad Ciuadana party.
First-Round Presidential Election Results
According to the TSE, 60.1% of registered voters participated in Guatemala’s first-round presidential
election; some 24% cast null (17.4%) or blank (7.0%) ballots. Guatemalans split their remaining votes
among 22 candidates, none of whom registered more than 16% support. A runoff is scheduled for August
20 between the top two candidates:
• Sandra Torres, former first lady of President Álvaro Colom (2008-2012) of the centrist
Partido Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza (UNE), who obtained 15.9% of the vote; and
• Bernardo Arévalo, anti-graft candidate and son of Guatemala’s first democratically
elected President Juan José Arévalo Bermejo (1945-1951) of the center-left Moviemiento
Semilla (Semilla), who obtained 11.8% of the vote.
Arévalo’s second-place finish was unexpected (he was polling at 2.9% before the election) and is
regarded as reflecting voter frustration with the political establishment and perceived government
corruption. Some sectors of Guatemala’s political establishment, however, may regard Arévalo as
threatening the status quo. For her part, frontrunner Sandra Torres has faced allegations mainly related to
corruption.
Certification Delays
On July 1, Guatemala’s Constitutional Court (CC) suspended the release of official election results and
called a hearing to review contested tallies in response to challenges brought by nine parties alleging
irregularities, including Torres’s UNE and incumbent President Alejandro Giammattei’s Vamos party. On
July 7, the Chief Justice of Guatemala’s Supreme Court (CSJ) issued an order blocking certification of the
results until electoral authorities reported on the vote tallies and their review methods. On July 8, the
Organization of American States (OAS) Electoral Observation Mission concluded that the first-round
results and verification procedures were satisfactory. Amid pressure from Guatemalans, the U.S.
government, and international organizations, the CSJ ruled on July 10 that the TSE had complied with the
review ordered by the CC,. On July 12, the TSE certified the first-round results.
Attempts to Suspend Semilla
On July 12, Rafael Curruchiche, chief of the Public Ministry’s Office of the Special Prosecutor Against
Impunity (FECI), launched an investigation into Arévalo’s party, Semilla, for allegedly forging party
registration signatures. The same day, Guatemalan Seventh Criminal Court Judge Fredy Orellana ordered
the TSE to suspend Semilla—an act widely recognized as illegal. The CC ultimately reversed the
suspension on July 13, in the face of significant domestic and international disapproval. Since then, FECI
prosecutors have raided the TSE’s registration office and Semilla party headquarters, and Judge Orellana
issued an arrest warrant against the deputy director of the TSE electoral registry for “obstruction of
justice” for not complying with his order to suspend Semilla. The State Department identified FECI Chief
Curruchiche and Judge Orellana, respectively, in its 2022 and 2023 lists of “corrupt and undemocratic
actors,” subjecting both to visa sanctions pursuant to the United States-Northern Triangle Enhanced
Engagement Act (P.L. 116-260, Division FF, Subtitle F).
The State Department welcomed certification of Guatemala’s first-round results but remains “deeply
concerned” by the attempts to revoke Semilla’s legal status, which “put at risk the legitimacy of the

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electoral process.” The OAS and European Union Election Observation Mission expressed similar
sentiments.
Issues for Congress
U.S. officials and some Members of Congress are closely following the integrity of the Guatemalan
elections and the policy positions endorsed by the leading candidates. The elections, and their perceived
legitimacy, could have significant implications for U.S. policy. Elections the public perceives to be less
than free and fair could spark additional protests and exacerbate social and political instability in
Guatemala. The election results also may determine the extent to which the next Guatemalan government
is willing to cooperate with the United States to address corruption, transnational crime, and irregular
migration, among other issues.
If newly elected Guatemalan officials prove hesitant to address such concerns, Congress could consider a
range of responses. For example, Congress could consider reauthorizing or modifying the sanctions
authority in the United States-Northern Triangle Enhanced Engagement Act, which is scheduled to expire
in December 2023.
Congress also could consider whether to scale back or reorient foreign assistance to Guatemala. The
Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Appropriations Act, 2023 (P.L. 117-328,
Division K), requires the State Department to withhold 60% of Economic Support Fund and security
assistance for the Guatemalan government until the Secretary of State certifies that the Guatemalan
government has met a series of conditions, including making efforts to strengthen the independence of
electoral institutions and protecting the rights of opposition political parties. The State Department
reprogrammed some FY2021 assistance to other countries, citing the Guatemalan government’s failure to
meet similar criteria, and has yet to issue certifications for FY2022 or FY2023. Congress may assess the
postelection situation as it considers President Biden’s $164.5 million FY2024 foreign assistance request
for Guatemala and any conditions on such assistance.


Author Information

Karla I. Rios

Analyst in Latin American Affairs



Disclaimer
This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan shared staff
to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and under the direction of
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IN12181 · VERSION 6 · UPDATED

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