INSIGHTi

Brazil’s October 2022 Presidential Election
Updated October 25, 2022
Brazil, the world’s sixth-most-populous country and 12th-largest economy, is to hold a presidential runoff
election on October 30, 2022. In the lead-up to the vote, some Members of Congress have expressed
concerns that Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro may be attempting to undermine the election’s
legitimacy and have introduced legislative measures to support Brazilian democracy. In addition to
considering potential legislation, Congress may monitor the Biden Administration’s approach to the
election and assess the potential implications of the election for U.S-Brazilian relations.
First-Round Results and Context
In the first-round presidential election, held on October 2, 2022, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da
Silva (Lula, 2003-2010) of the center-left Workers’ Party (PT) won 48.4% of the vote but fell short of the
absolute majority needed to avoid a runoff against President Bolsonaro, who obtained 43.2% of the vote.
Two other candidates from center-right and center-left parties, who received a combined 7.2% of the vote,
have endorsed Lula for the second round. According to an average of polls conducted through October 24,
2022, Lula is leading Bolsonaro 47.5% to 45.0%.
The presidential campaign represents a political comeback for Lula, who was convicted on corruption
charges in 2017 and imprisoned for nearly two years. He was cleared to run for office again in 2021, after
the Brazilian supreme court annulled those convictions and ruled that the judge presiding over the case for
which Lula had been imprisoned acted with bias. Lula has campaigned on his economic record,
reminding voters of the improvements in living standards that occurred during his eight years in office.
He also has sought to broaden his coalition by reaching out to centrist and conservative voters.
Nevertheless, anti-PT sentiment remains widespread in Brazil, particularly among evangelicals and those
who associate Lula’s party with corruption scandals and Brazil’s deep 2014-2016 recession.
Bolsonaro, a former right-wing legislator and retired army captain, was elected in 2018 after a period of
economic and political turmoil that discredited much of Brazil’s political leadership. Bolsonaro has
governed in a populist manner that has kept his base politically engaged but alienated potential allies
within the conservative-leaning congress. Bolsonaro’s approach also has stressed Brazil’s democratic
institutions and appears to have hindered the country’s response to the Coronavirus Disease 2019
(COVID-19) pandemic, which has killed more than 687,000 Brazilians.
In an attempt to expand his support base prior to the election, Bolsonaro joined the center-right Liberal
Party and forged a coalition with two other large, patronage-based parties. He also worked with the
Congressional Research Service
https://crsreports.congress.gov
IN12022
CRS INSIGHT
Prepared for Members and
Committees of Congress

---

Congressional Research Service
2
Brazilian congress to increase cash transfers to low-income households, reduce fuel taxes, and implement
other social assistance measures. In recent months, unemployment has fallen to a seven-year low and real
wages have begun to increase as consumer prices have declined in certain sectors. As of October 21,
2022, 38% of Brazilians rated Bolsonaro’s performance in office “good” or “great,” 19% rated it
“regular,” and 41% rated it “bad” or “terrible,” according to an average of recent polls.
Election Concerns
Throughout the campaign, Bolsonaro has repeatedly questioned the electoral system’s integrity. Brazil’s
armed forces, which are more involved in governance than at any time since the end of the country’s
1964-1985 dictatorship, have echoed some of Bolsonaro’s claims. Bolsonaro has stated he will recognize
the election results as long as “nothing abnormal” occurs, but some analysts are concerned he could seek
security force support to overturn a loss. To date, Brazil’s other branches of government and a broad
cross-section of civil society have remained united in defense of the electoral system. Many analysts also
expect Brazil’s military leadership to respect the results, though some remain concerned that Bolsonaro
supporters, inside and outside the security forces, could engage in violence. Multiple politically motivated
murders occurred during the lead-up to the first-round election.
Implications for U.S. Policy
Some Members of Congress have expressed concerns about Bolsonaro’s preelection actions and have
introduced legislative responses. On September 28, 2022, the Senate adopted a resolution (S.Res. 753)
that urges the Brazilian government to ensure the election is conducted in a “free, fair, credible,
transparent, and peaceful manner.” The resolution also calls on the U.S. government to speak out against
efforts to undermine the electoral process; to immediately recognize the outcome if international
observers determine the election to be free and fair; and to make clear that undemocratic actions would
jeopardize U.S.-Brazilian relations, including security assistance. A companion resolution (H.Res. 1335)
has been introduced in the House. A withdrawn amendment to the National Defense Authorization for
FY2023 (H.Amdt. 282 to H.R. 7900) would have required the Secretary of State to report on the Brazilian
armed forces’ actions regarding the election and to consider whether such actions required the termination
of U.S. assistance in accordance with Section 7008 the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2022 (P.L. 117-
103). Other Members of Congress have expressed concerns that measures such as H.Amdt. 282 could
harm U.S.-Brazilian security cooperation and denigrate the reputation of a U.S. ally. The Biden
Administration has expressed confidence in Brazil’s electoral institutions, condemned political violence,
and reportedly urged Brazilian officials not to cast doubts on the system.
The election outcome also could affect U.S.-Brazilian relations. Under Bolsonaro, bilateral security and
commercial ties have expanded and Brazil has aligned with the United States on regional challenges, such
as the ongoing crisis in Venezuela. Bolsonaro’s environmental policies have generated tensions with the
Biden Administration, however, as deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has climbed to a 15-year high,
jeopardizing global efforts to mitigate climate change. If elected, Lula likely would pursue more
autonomous foreign and defense policies, including restoring relations with the Nicolás Maduro
government in Venezuela and increasing coordination with fellow Latin American governments and
members of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) group. At the same time, bilateral
environmental cooperation may increase, as Lula has pledged to combat illegal deforestation and meet
Brazil’s Paris Agreement commitments on climate change. Nevertheless, such efforts could be
constrained by Brazil’s incoming congress, in which legislators affiliated with agricultural interests are
expected to play an influential role.

---

Congressional Research Service
3
Author Information

Peter J. Meyer

Specialist in Latin American and Canadian Affairs




Disclaimer
This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan shared staff
to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and under the direction of
Congress. Information in a CRS Report should not be relied upon for purposes other than public understanding of
information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in connection with CRS’s institutional role.
CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not subject to copyright protection in the United
States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety without permission from CRS. However,
as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or material from a third party, you may need to obtain the
permission of the copyright holder if you wish to copy or otherwise use copyrighted material.

IN12022 · VERSION 5 · UPDATED

---