INSIGHTi
Brazil’s October 2022 Presidential Election
September 28, 2022
Brazil, the world’s sixth-most populous country and 12th largest economy, is to hold presidential,
legislative, and state elections on October 2, 2022. In the lead-up to the vote, some Members of Congress
have expressed concerns that Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro may be attempting to undermine the
legitimacy of the elections and have introduced legislative measures to support Brazilian democracy. In
addition to considering potential legislation, Congress may monitor the Biden Administration’s approach
to the elections and may assess the potential implications of the elections for U.S-Brazilian relations.
Domestic Context and Campaign
Bolsonaro, a former right-wing legislator and retired army captain, was elected in 2018 in the aftermath of
a deep recession and corruption scandals that discredited much of Brazil’s political leadership. Since
taking office in January 2019, Bolsonaro has governed in a populist manner, using social media to
communicate directly with supporters; take polarizing stands on cultural issues; and criticize perceived
enemies, such as the press, civil society organizations, and other branches of government. This approach
has kept his base politically engaged but has alienated potential allies within the conservative-leaning
congress and placed additional stress on the country’s already strained democratic institutions. It also
appears to have hindered Brazil’s ability to implement a coordinated response to the Coronavirus Disease
2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which has killed more than 685,000 Brazilians.
In an attempt to expand his support base prior to the election, Bolsonaro joined the center-right Liberal
Party and forged a coalition with two other large patronage-based parties. Working with the Brazilian
congress, he also increased cash transfers to low-income households, reduced fuel taxes, and implemented
other measures intended to help Brazilians contend with high inflation. Bolsonaro’s approval rating has
improved over the past year; as of September 21, 2022, 34% of Brazilians rated his performance in office
“good” or “great,” 20% rated it “regular,” and 44% rated as “bad” or “terrible,” according to an average
of recent polls.
The political opposition, which had been fragmented for much of Bolsonaro’s term, has coalesced behind
former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula, 2003-2010) of the center-left Workers’ Party. The
presidential campaign represents a political comeback for Lula, who was convicted on corruption charges
in 2017 and imprisoned for nearly two years. He was cleared to run for office again in 2021, after the
Brazilian supreme court annulled those convictions and ruled that the judge presiding over the case for
which he had been imprisoned had acted with bias. Lula has campaigned on his economic record,
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reminding voters of the improvements in living standards that occurred during his eight years in office.
He also has sought to broaden his coalition by selecting a center-right running mate and reaching out to
former Bolsonaro supporters.
According to an average of recent polls, as of September 27, 2022, Lula was leading Bolsonaro 44% to
37%, with other candidates registering minimal support. If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid
votes on October 2, a runoff between the top two candidates is to be held on October 30. Polls suggest
Lula would be favored in a second-round matchup, leading Bolsonaro 51% to 40%.
Election Concerns
As Bolsonaro’s prospects for reelection have diminished, he has repeatedly questioned the integrity of the
electoral system. Brazil’s armed forces, who are more involved in governance than they have been at any
time since the end of the country’s 1964-1985 dictatorship, have echoed some of Bolsonaro’s claims.
Bolsonaro has stated that he will recognize the election results as long as the voting is “clean and
transparent,” but some analysts are concerned that he could seek security force support to overturn a loss.
To date, Brazil’s other branches of government and significant sectors of civil society have remained
united in defense of the electoral system. Many analysts also expect Brazil’s military leadership to respect
the results, though some remain concerned that Bolsonaro supporters, inside and outside the security
forces, could resort to violence. Observers documented more than 200 incidents of political violence in
the first half of the year, and multiple murders have occurred during the lead up to the election.
Implications for U.S. Policy
Some Members of Congress have expressed concerns about Bolsonaro’s pre-election actions and have
introduced resolutions (S.Res. 753/H.Res. 1335) that would urge the Brazilian government to ensure the
elections are “free, fair, credible, transparent, and peaceful.” The resolutions also would call on the U.S.
government to speak out against efforts to undermine the electoral process, immediately recognize the
outcome of elections determined by international observers to be free and fair, and make clear that
undemocratic actions would jeopardize U.S.-Brazilian relations. A withdrawn amendment to the National
Defense Authorization for FY2023, H.Amdt. 282 to H.R. 7900, would have required the Secretary of
State to report on the Brazilian armed forces’ actions regarding the elections and consider whether such
actions require the termination of U.S. assistance in accordance with Section 7008 the Consolidated
Appropriations Act, 2022 (P.L. 117-103). Other Members of Congress have expressed concerns that
measures such as H.Amdt. 282 could harm U.S.-Brazilian security cooperation and denigrate the
reputation of a U.S. ally. The Biden Administration has expressed confidence in Brazil’s electoral
institutions and reportedly has urged Brazilian officials not to cast doubts on the system.
The election outcome also could affect U.S.-Brazilian relations. Under Bolsonaro, bilateral security and
commercial ties have expanded and Brazil has aligned with the United States on regional challenges, like
the ongoing crisis in Venezuela. Bolsonaro’s environmental policies have generated tensions with the
Biden Administration, however, as deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has climbed to a 15-year high,
jeopardizing global efforts to mitigate climate change. If elected, Lula would likely pursue more
autonomous foreign and defense policies, including restoring relations with the Nicolás Maduro
government in Venezuela and increasing coordination with fellow Latin American governments and
members of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) group. At the same time, bilateral
environmental cooperation may increase, as Lula has pledged to combat illegal deforestation and meet
Brazil’s Paris Agreement commitments on climate change.
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Author Information
Peter J. Meyer
Specialist in Latin American and Canadian Affairs
Disclaimer
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