Updated May 6, 2022
Al Qaeda: Background, Current Status, and U.S. Policy
Al Qaeda (AQ) is a transnational Sunni Islamist terrorist
Widespread reports that Zawahiri (70) has been ill have
organization and network of affiliates that the U.S.
raised questions about the group’s future leadership.
intelligence community described as of early 2022 as one of
Zawahiri’s former deputy, Abu Khayr al Masri, was killed
the groups that “probably pose the greatest threat to U.S.
by a U.S. drone strike in Syria in 2017; Al Masri’s
persons and interests abroad” and a potential source of
successor was killed in Iran in August 2020, reportedly by
inspiration to domestic violent extremists. Sustained
Israeli agents. Their deaths, and that of Bin Laden’s son
counterterrorism (CT) pressure has weakened the group
Hamza (whose killing in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region
since it perpetrated the September 11, 2001 (9/11) attacks.
was announced by President Trump in 2019), leave Saif al
In its March 2022 annual public threat assessment, the U.S.
Adl as Zawahiri’s likely successor. Al Adl is reported to
intelligence community stated that Al Qaeda “is constrained
reside in Iran, which has allowed some AQ figures to
in its efforts to lead a unified global movement” but will try
operate in its territory despite historic enmity between
to “capitalize on permissive operating environments.” U.S.
Sunni Al Qaeda and Iran’s Shia Islamic Republic
officials characterize the AQ threat as stemming mainly
government. AQ leaders may view Iran as relatively safe
from its affiliates, which have generally focused on local
from U.S. counterterrorism pressure, while Iran may view
issues in their respective areas of operation, where they
AQ’s presence as leverage against the United States, as well
threaten local U.S. personnel, interests, and partners.
as an opportunity to support another U.S. adversary.
Background
Structure
In 1988, Osama bin Laden established Al Qaeda from a
Al Qaeda once had a hierarchical organization, a relatively
network of Arab and other foreign veterans of the Afghan
small and geographically contained membership, and
insurgency against the Soviet Union, with the aim of
claimed to be the vanguard and global leader of Islamist
supporting Islamist causes in conflicts around the world.
terrorism. The attenuation of AQ core leadership, the
After the 1991 Gulf War, citing opposition to the decision
growth of regional affiliates, and the rise of the Islamic
by Saudi Arabia to host U.S. troops, the group made the
State have changed Al Qaeda greatly.
United States its primary target. Bin Laden left his native
For years, analysts have debated how to characterize the
Saudi Arabia that year and relocated to Sudan, until the
shifting ties between AQ leaders and groups that have
Taliban took power in Afghanistan in 1996 and offered
pledged allegiance to Al Qaeda, and among these self-
refuge to AQ members and other armed Islamists.
described affiliates. Some contend that Al Qaeda remains
Al Qaeda conducted a series of terrorist attacks against U.S.
essentially a centrally governed organization, with the
and allied targets prior to 9/11, including the 1998
group’s leaders providing marching orders to its various
bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania (after
affiliates; others describe a “hub and spoke” model in
which the United States launched airstrikes against targets
which leaders provide inspiration, strategic vision, and
in Afghanistan and Sudan) and the 2000 attack on the USS
some financial support but little in the way of direct tactical
Cole in Yemen. The United States designated Al Qaeda as a
supervision. In 2022, the analytical consensus appears to
Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) in 1999. After the
view AQ as having “devolved operational responsibility to
9/11 attacks, the United States launched military operations
regional affiliates as it has shifted away from centrally
to topple the Taliban government in Afghanistan and
directed plotting,” per the 2022 annual threat assessment.
expanded its CT efforts worldwide. Some AQ leaders fled
Al Qaeda may persist as a group that inspires ideologically
to Pakistan, where U.S. forces killed Bin Laden in 2011.
motivated terrorism against U.S. interests around the world
AQ attacks against U.S. and Western targets worldwide
and opportunistically enters (or secures the allegiance of
continued in the years after 9/11, but the group has not
participants in) local conflicts. Changes in the relative
successfully carried out a major attack inside the United
balance of these elements of the group’s identity and
States since then.
structure may in turn spur changes in the focus of U.S.
counterterrorism efforts over time.
Leadership
AQ’s leader, or emir, is Ayman al Zawahiri, an Egyptian
Status in Afghanistan
who succeeded Bin Laden. Some attribute purported AQ
The Taliban’s August 2021 return to power in Afghanistan
struggles (including its failure to strike inside the United
gave Al Qaeda a “significant boost,” per United Nations
States) to what they describe as Zawahiri’s understated
sanctions monitors, and traditional AQ allies (such as
leadership, as compared to Bin Laden’s charisma. Others
figures linked to the Haqqani Network) have prominent
argue that Zawahiri’s more restrained approach is an asset
roles in the Taliban government. Since congratulating the
that has created space for AQ affiliates to pursue regionally
Taliban in August 2021, AQ “has maintained a strategic
tailored strategies and make inroads into local communities.
silence, likely an effort not to compromise Taliban efforts
to gain international recognition and legitimacy,” in light of
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Al Qaeda: Background, Current Status, and U.S. Policy
counterterrorism commitments made by the Taliban to
Designated as an FTO in 2018, JNIM is most active in
secure the withdrawal of U.S. forces. While AQ currently
Mali and Burkina Faso, where it has expanded despite a
lacks an operational capability in Afghanistan, U.S.
nearly decade-long U.S.-backed French CT mission;
officials assess that AQ has the intention to reconstitute the
France announced plans in February 2022 to withdraw
ability to conduct external attacks and could do so in one to
its forces from Mali. JNIM has also made inroads into
two years in the absence of CT pressure. The U.S.
coastal West Africa. A Nigeria-based group known as
intelligence community assesses that AQ “will gauge its
Ansaru has also pledged allegiance to AQIM.
ability operate in Afghanistan under Taliban restrictions” as
As security conditions in Syria deteriorated in 2011,
the two groups recalibrate their relationship and activities.
AQI/ISI began operations there as the Nusra Front. The
Affiliates
Nusra Front did not initially acknowledge ties to
AQI/ISI but was designated by the State Department as
Regional developments, notably the 2003 U.S. invasion of
an alias of AQI/ISI in 2012. The Nusra Front soon
Iraq and the post-2011 instability that engulfed some states
became one of the most powerful armed groups in Syria,
after Arab Spring-inspired protests, created opportunities
and rejected AQI/ISI leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi’s
for AQ affiliates throughout the Middle East and North
2013 attempt to subsume it under his leadership as part
Africa. Affiliates have also exploited local conflicts and
of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS or ISIL, later
political crises in Somalia and the Sahel region.
the Islamic State). In 2017, the Nusra Front merged with
In 2004, the Iraq-based Jordanian national Abu Musab
other Syrian factions to become Hayat Tahrir al Sham
al Zarqawi formed the first AQ affiliate, Al Qaeda in
(HTS). HTS leaders, who control most of the
Iraq (AQI). AQI was the first AQ affiliate to be
northeastern Syrian province of Idlib, have distanced
designated as an FTO (in 2004). In 2006, AQI renamed
themselves from AQ. An HTS breakoff group, Hurras
itself the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), which in 2011
al Din, is seen as closer to AQ but weaker than HTS.
expanded to Syria and later declared a “global
caliphate” as the Islamic State.
Relation to the Islamic State
While there are some ideological and tactical similarities
U.S.-backed Saudi efforts dismantled an AQ branch in
between IS and AQ, their relationship is mostly adversarial.
the country by 2005, leaving only scattered cells
AQ and IS affiliates operate in many of the same conflict
remaining. In 2009, these cells united with Yemeni AQ
zones (such as in Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia, and the
operatives to form Al Qaeda in the Arabia Peninsula
Sahel) where they appear to compete for resources and
(AQAP), designated as an FTO that year. AQAP grew
recruits, and often clash militarily.
rapidly in the context of Yemen’s post-2011 instability
and civil war. AQAP has attempted, perhaps more than
U.S. Policy Responses
any other AQ affiliate, to carry out and inspire attacks in
The U.S. campaign against Al Qaeda, now in its third
the United States and Europe, but as of 2022 is
“suffering setbacks caused by both
decade, spans a wide array of policy areas. The United
internal divisions
and military offensives,” per U.N. sanctions monitors
States has conducted airstrikes on AQ targets in at least
.
seven countries since 2012, though the United States in
As its international reach grew with affiliates like AQI
2021 removed military forces from Afghanistan and
and AQAP, Al Qaeda also attracted interest from other
repositioned military forces from Somalia, where they were
likeminded groups. Al Shabaab, a Somali group
supporting counterterrorism operations, to neighboring
designated as an FTO in 2008 whose founders had ties
countries. Beyond direct military action, the United States
to Al Qaeda, formally pledged allegiance to AQ in 2012.
seeks to combat Al Qaeda and other terrorist threats “by,
Al Shabaab, which took over territory in central and
with, and through” local partners, including through the
southern Somalia in the mid-2000s as an offshoot of
provision of security assistance and, in some cases,
Somalia’s Council of Islamic Courts, has carried out
logistical and/or advisory support.
attacks against domestic and international targets in
U.S. policymakers also seek to combat Al Qaeda and other
Somalia, as well as in Uganda, Djibouti, and Kenya. In
terrorist groups by addressing the drivers of extremist
March 2022, a DOD official described Al Shabaab as
“the largest, wealthiest, and most
recruitment, by blocking the financing of Al Qaeda and its
lethal Al Qaeda
affiliates through sanctions and other tools, and by
affiliate in the world today,” having grown “due to a
prosecuting individuals in the United States for providing
lack of effective governance and counter-terrorism
pressure.”
support to the group and its affiliates. Congress has
addressed the enduring presence of AQ affiliates through
Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) first
the oversight of executive branch counterterrorism policies
emerged as a faction in Algeria’s 1990s civil conflict. It
and practices and the authorization and appropriation of
pledged allegiance to Al Qaeda and rebranded itself as
U.S. funds for counterterrorism activities. Ongoing
AQIM in 2006-2007. AQIM’s center of gravity moved
deliberations in Congress about repeal or revision of the
southward and eastward after 2011, spawning a number
2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF,
of splinter factions and local affiliates. Even as AQIM
P.L. 107-40) may also have implications for U.S. efforts
activity in North Africa has waned, some of those
against Al Qaeda and its affiliates.
offshoots have strengthened. The most prominent is the
Group for Supporting Islam and Muslims (or JNIM,
Clayton Thomas, Acting Section Research Manager
in Arabic), which was formed in 2017 as a merger of
AQIM’s Sahel branch and several Mali-based groups.
IF11854
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Al Qaeda: Background, Current Status, and U.S. Policy
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