Updated June 8, 2021
Defense Primer: Emerging Technologies
Both U.S. national strategy documents and Congress’s own
Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI) to assess U.S.
bipartisan Future of Defense Task Force Report have
competitiveness in AI and offer recommendations to
identified a number of emerging technologies that could
Congress. NSCAI released its final report in March 2021.
have a disruptive impact on U.S. national security in the
years to come. These technologies include
Lethal Autonomous Weapons
Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS) are a class
artificial intelligence,
of weapon systems capable of independently identifying a
lethal autonomous weapons,
target and employing an onboard weapon system to engage
hypersonic weapons,
and destroy the target without manual human control.
directed-energy weapons,
LAWS may use computer algorithms and sensor suites to
biotechnology, and
classify an object as hostile, make an engagement decision,
quantum technology.
and guide a weapon to the target. This capability could
As these technologies continue to mature, they could hold
enable the system to operate in communications-degraded
significant implications for congressional oversight, U.S.
or -denied environments where traditional systems may not
defense authorizations and appropriations, military concepts
be able to operate.
of operations, and the future of war.
LAWS are not yet in widespread development, and some
Artificial Intel igence
senior military and defense leaders have expressed concerns
about the ethics of ever fielding such systems. For example,
Although there is no official U.S. government definition of
in 2017 testimony before the Senate Armed Services
artificial intelligence (AI), AI generally refers to a computer
Committee, then-Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
system capable of human-level cognition. AI is currently
General Paul Selva stated, “I do not think it is reasonable
being incorporated into a number of military applications,
for us to put robots in charge of whether or not we take a
including intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance;
human life.” Currently, there are no domestic or
logistics; cyber operations; command and control; and
international legal prohibitions on the development or use
semi-autonomous and autonomous vehicles. As it develops,
of LAWS; however, international discussions—held
AI could enable new concepts of operations, such as
primarily under the auspices of the United Nations
swarming (i.e., cooperative behavior in which uninhabited
Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons—are
vehicles autonomously coordinate to achieve a task), that
ongoing. Approximately 30 countries have called for a
could present both challenges and opportunities for the U.S.
preemptive ban on the systems due to ethical
military.
considerations, while others have called for political
Recent news reports and analyses have highlighted the role
declarations on or formal regulation of their development
of AI in enabling increasingly realistic photo, audio, and
and use. DOD Directive 3000.09 establishes U.S.
video digital forgeries, popularly known as “deep fakes.”
guidelines for the development and fielding of LAWS to
Adversaries could potentially deploy this AI capability as
ensure that they comply with “the law of war, applicable
part of their information operations in a “gray zone”
treaties, weapon system safety rules, and applicable rules of
conflict. Deep fake technology could be used against the
engagement.”
United States and its allies to generate false news reports,
influence public discourse, erode public trust, and attempt
Hypersonic Weapons
to blackmail diplomats. Some have suggested that AI could
Hypersonic weapons—which fly at speeds of at least Mach
be used to create full digital “patterns-of-life,” in which an
5 (five times the speed of sound)—are in development in a
individual’s digital footprint is mapped against other
number of countries, including the United States. There are
personal information, such as spending habits and job
two categories of hypersonic weapons:
history, to create comprehensive behavioral profiles of
Hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV) are launched from a
servicemembers, suspected intelligence officers,
rocket before gliding to a target. (When HGVs are
government officials, and private citizens. Similar to deep
mated with their rocket booster, the resulting weapon
fakes, this information could, in turn, be used for targeted
system is often referred to as a hypersonic boost-glide
influence operations or blackmail.
weapon.)
To coordinate defense-wide AI efforts, the Pentagon
Hypersonic cruise missiles (HCM) are powered by
established the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center (JAIC,
pronounced “jake”) in June 2018 under the Department of
high-speed engines throughout the duration of their
Defense’s (DOD’
flight.
s) Chief Information Officer. In addition,
the FY2019 National Defense Authorization Act (P.L. 115-
In contrast to ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons do not
232, §1051) established a National Security Commission on
follow a ballistic trajectory and can maneuver en route to
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Defense Primer: Emerging Technologies
their destination, making defense against them difficult.
be less restrained in both researching and applying
Currently, no such defense against hypersonic weapons
biotechnology, particularly as it relates to human
exists, and experts disagree on the affordability and
performance modification and biological weapons.
technological feasibility of hypersonic missile defense
options. These options could include interceptor missiles,
Quantum Technology
hypervelocity projectiles, laser guns, and electronic attack
Quantum technology translates the principles of quantum
systems.
physics into technological applications. The Defense
Science Board (DSB), an independent Department of
According to open-source reporting, Russia fielded its first
Defense (DOD) board of scientific advisors, has concluded
HGV—the Avangard—in December 2019. Similarly, some
experts believe that China’s DF
that three applications of quantum technology hold the most
-ZF HGV became
promise for DOD: quantum sensing, quantum computers,
operational as early as 2020. The United States is unlikely
and quantum communications.
to field an operational HGV system before 2023. Although
HCM technology is less mature than HGV technology,
Of these, the DSB states, quantum sensing is the most
some reports suggest that Russia could field an HCM as
mature and is currently “poised for mission use.” Quantum
early as 2023. Other countries—including France,
sensing could provide alternative positioning, navigation,
Australia, India, Germany, and Japan—also have research
and timing options that could in theory allow militaries to
programs in hypersonic weapons.
continue to operate at full performance in GPS-denied
environments. Quantum sensors could also be used in an
Directed-Energy Weapons
intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance role. While
DOD defines directed-energy (DE) weapons as those using
quantum computers are in a comparatively early stage of
concentrated electromagnetic energy, rather than kinetic
development, they could enable advances in machine
energy, to “incapacitate, damage, disable, or destroy enemy
learning, a subfield of AI. Quantum computers could also
equipment, facilities, and/or personnel.” DE weapons—
potentially decrypt classified or controlled unclassified
often colloquially referred to as “lasers”—could be used by
information stored on encrypted media, allowing
ground forces in counter rocket, artillery, and mortar (C-
adversaries to gain access to sensitive information about
RAM) or short-range air defense (SHORAD) missions.
U.S. military or intelligence operations. Finally, quantum
They could offer low costs per shot and nearly limitless
communications, which are in a nascent stage of
magazines that, in contrast to existing conventional
development, could theoretically enable the secure
systems, could enable an efficient and effective means of
networking of quantum military sensors, computers, and
defending against missile salvos and swarms of uninhabited
other systems. Military applications of quantum
vehicles. Theoretically, DE weapons could also provide
technologies could be constrained, however, by the fragility
options for boost-phase missile intercept, given their speed-
of quantum states, which can be disrupted by minute
of-light travel time; however, as in the case of hypersonic
movements, changes in temperature, or other environmental
missile defense, experts disagree on the affordability and
factors.
technological feasibility of this application.
Potential Issues for Congress
High-powered microwave (HPM) weapons, a subset of DE
What is the appropriate balance of funding across these
weapons, could be used as a nonkinetic means of disabling
and other emerging technologies, given the potential
electronics, communications systems, and improvised
military utility and technological maturity of each?
explosive devices in the event of a conflict. In addition, the
U.S. military has explored using HPM in a nonlethal “heat
Some analysts have argued that DOD should develop a
ray” system for crowd control; however, the system was
technology strategy to establish long-term priorities
recalled—likely due to ethical and operational
across these and other emerging technologies. What
considerations.
impact would such a strategy have on Congress’s
ability to conduct oversight or evaluate budget
Biotechnology
requests?
Biotechnology leverages life sciences for technological
Some reports indicate that both DOD and defense
applications. A number of developments in biotechnology
industry have difficulty recruiting and retaining
hold potential implications for national security. As a 2018
personnel with expertise in emerging technologies. In
Government Accountability Office report notes, the
addition, analysts have noted that the development of
Departments of Defense, State, and Homeland Security, and
many emerging technologies requires experts from a
the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, all assess
number of disparate fields (e.g., development of
that biotechnologies, such as the low-cost gene-editing tool
quantum technology could require experts in quantum
CRISPR-Cas9, have the potential to “alter genes or create
information science, machine learning, materials
DNA to modify plants, animals, and humans. Such
science, and other fields). What measures, if any,
biotechnologies could be used to enhance [or degrade] the
should the United States take to ensure that the
performance of military personnel. The proliferation of
emerging technology workforce is sufficient to support
synthetic biology—used to create genetic code that does not
U.S. competitiveness and military superiority?
exist in nature—may increase the number of actors that can
create chemical and biological weapons” and could
Kelley M. Sayler, Analyst in Advanced Technology and
additionally enable the creation of adaptive camouflage,
Global Security
cloaking devices, or lighter, stronger, and—potentially—
self-healing body and vehicle armor. U.S. adversaries may
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Defense Primer: Emerging Technologies
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