INSIGHTi
Mexico: Challenges for U.S. Policymakers
in 2021
March 15, 2021
Mexico, a top U.S. trade partner and neighbor, could play a key role in addressing several chal enges
facing U.S. policymakers in 2021. Although President Andrés Manuel López Obrador initial y delayed
congratulating President Joe Biden on his electoral victory, the leaders now have spoken twice and have
held a virtual meeting. During that March 1 meeting, they committed to collaborate on bilateral and
regional migration issues and on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) response and recovery, while
reaffirming the importance of security cooperation and anti-corruption efforts. Each of those issues could
test U.S.-Mexican relations, with tension in one area of the relationship potential y hindering cooperation
in others. Most experts maintain the best way for both countries to weather such chal enges is to continue
working together and with Canada to ensure the best possible outcomes for North America.
Migration
The Trump Administration’s approach to Mexico de-emphasized human rights and corruption concerns in
favor of a narrow focus on migration control. Under the threat of U.S. tariffs, the López Obrador
administration accommodated U.S. border and asylum policy changes that shifted the burden of
interdicting migrants and hosting asylum seekers from the United States to Mexico. Many human rights
advocates expressed serious concerns about U.S. policies, however, and it was unclear how long Mexico
would continue to devote resources to deterring and hosting primarily Central American migrants.
President Biden has announced executive actions on immigration, many of which revise restrictive
policies implemented by the Trump Administration. President Biden also proposed a comprehensive
immigration reform bil , introduced as the U.S. Citizenship Act (S. 348/H.R. 1177). As the top country of
origin for unauthorized immigrants in the United States, and the recipient of more than $40 bil ion of
remittances in 2020, Mexico could benefit from pathways to legal status included in that and other bil s.
However, the Biden Administration likely wil require assistance from Mexico as it seeks to end policies
restricting the availability of asylum and other protections for migrants at the Southwest border without
overwhelming U.S. agencies’ processing capacity.
Until pandemic-related restrictions on asylum processing end, Mexico wil continue to receive non-
Mexican adults expel ed by U.S. officials; at the same time, Mexico is no longer accepting non-Mexican
unaccompanied children and families at some ports of entry due to a new law that took effect in January.
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Some advocates have urged U.S. policymakers to bolster Mexico’s asylum system, encourage Mexican
investment in Central America, and ensure the wel -being of migrants awaiting U.S. immigration
proceedings in Mexico as the Migration Protection Protocols (MPP) are phased out. Amid a deep
recession and budget austerity, Mexico has limited capacity to fulfil these aims and reportedly has failed
to protect migrants from abuses. Mexico also is concerned about increased alien smuggling.
Pandemic Response and Economic Recovery
With over 194,700 deaths as of March 15, 2021, Mexico has the third highest number of COVID-19
deaths worldwide. The Mexican government’s pandemic response has been widely criticized. Whereas
prior influenza outbreaks led to the creation of bilateral U.S.- Mexico and trilateral (with Canada) health
cooperation frameworks, COVID-19 has revealed new chal enges on this front. Such issues include how
to ensure the stability of supply chains and the safety of workers employed in essential industries,
coordinate border closures, disseminate research and information, and secure vaccine supplies. The Biden
Administration has declined to share vaccines with Mexico at this time, although some U.S. policymakers
from border communities are urging it do so in order to reopen the Southwest border.
Economic recovery is underway in the United States, but prospects for Mexico’s economy—which
declined 0.3% in 2019 and 9% in 2020—remain uncertain. The Mexican government has devoted less
than 1% of gross domestic product to economic stimulus measures, and widespread vaccine coverage is
not expected until mid-2022. Mexico is seeking to leverage the United States-Mexico-Canada Free Trade
Agreement (USMCA) to entice investors to relocate from China, but some investors remain concerned
about Mexico’s poor investment climate under President López Obrador. Some point to Presidents Biden
and López Obrador’s pledge to restart an Obama-era High-Level Economic Dialogue as positive for
economic cooperation. Nevertheless, enforcement issues regarding USMCA’s labor provisions, trade
disputes, and/or U.S. concerns that Mexico’s energy policies may violate the USMCA could hinder
bilateral economic relations.
Countering Drugs
U.S.-Mexican security has expanded significantly under the Mérida Initiative, a U.S. antidrug and rule-of-
law assistance program through which Congress has provided some $3.2 bil ion to Mexico since FY2007.
Relations have been strained, however, since the October 2020 U.S. arrest of former Mexican defense
minister Salvador Cienfuegos on drug trafficking charges. Although the United States ultimately agreed to
release Cienfuegos to Mexico, where authorities dropped al charges against him in January 2021,
Mexico’s Congress enacted legislation limiting U.S. law enforcement operations in Mexico.
The 2020 National Drug Threat Assessment, issued in March 2021, asserts that Mexican drug trafficking
organizations remain the “greatest criminal drug threat” to the United States and are “increasingly
responsible for producing and supplying fentanyl to the U.S. market.” Amid surging U.S. demand during
the pandemic, drug trafficking-related violence remained elevated in Mexico even as violence and crime
declined in other countries. U.S. overdoses and drug trafficking and organized crime-related homicides in
Mexico, combined with current tension in relations, have led many to question the Mérida Initiative’s
efficacy.
Many experts assert that past antidrug efforts have failed and new strategies are needed, but mutual
mistrust and new regulations governing how U.S. agents operate in Mexico could limit policy options .
Whereas the López Obrador government likely would welcome increased U.S. efforts to combat weapons
trafficking or money laundering, it could have difficulty accepting U.S. attempts to improve Mexico’s
military-led security strategy or human rights record. Some analysts suggest trust-building efforts to
repair security relations; others suggest a unilateral U.S. approach, involving further indictments of
Mexican officials, suspension of some Mérida aid, and a halt of extraditions to Mexico.
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Also see CRS Report R42917, Mexico: Background and U.S. Relations, and CRS Report R44981, The
United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
Author Information
Clare Ribando Seelke
Specialist in Latin American Affairs
Disclaimer
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