Updated December 7, 2020
Iraq and U.S. Policy
Al Kadhimi Government Facing
hundreds of thousands seeking systemic change. Protests
Numerous Challenges
subsided in early 2020 amid COVID-19 mitigation
In May 2020, Iraq’s parliament confirmed Iraqi National
measures, but protestors’ demands for reform and an end to
Intelligence Service director Mustafa al Kadhimi as Prime
corruption and foreign interference remain unsatisfied.
Minister, and in June finished confirmation of his cabinet
As protests intensified in late 2019, the parliament (Council
members, bringing months of political deadlock over
of Representatives, COR) adopted a new election law to
government leadership to a close. Upon taking office, Al
replace Iraq’s list-based electoral system with an individual
Kadhimi declared that his government would serve in a
candidate- and district-based system. In October 2020, the
transitional capacity and would work to improve security
COR finalized the law, creating electoral districts in each
and fight corruption while preparing for early elections.
governorate based on the governorate’s number of women’s
Iraqi authorities have instituted curfews and travel
quota seats. Some voting systems experts warn that the
restrictions in response to the Coronavirus Disease-2019
electoral system changes alone will not ensure different
(COVID-19) pandemic, which threatens public health, the
political leadership or better governance. Meanwhile,
economy, and public finances.
mounting fiscal pressure is delaying public salary payments
Prime Minister Al Kadhimi’s priorities include:
and undermining service delivery, with some experts
warning of financial collapse.
mobilizing resources to fight the COVID-19 pandemic;
“restricting weapons to state and military institutions”;
Figure 1. Iraq
addressing what he calls “the worst economic situation
since the formation of the Iraqi state”; and
“protecting the sovereignty and security of Iraq,
continuing to fight terrorism, and providing a national
vision on the future of foreign forces in Iraq.”
Al Kadhimi has called for early elections in June 2021
under a revamped electoral system, but fiscal pressures,
political rivalries, and limited institutional capacity present
serious hurdles to reform. A series of high profile
assassinations in 2020 of protest leaders and of a prominent
security researcher have intensified public scrutiny of Al
Kadhimi’s credibility and his government’s ability to act
against armed groups operating outside state authority.
Ongoing rocket and improvised explosive device (IED)
attacks against U.S. and Iraqi facilities and convoys further
underscore these concerns. Islamic State insurgents also
remain active, especially in rural areas.
To date, Al Kadhimi’s administration has focused on
COVID-19 risks and responding to related economic and
fiscal fallout. The Prime Minister visited the United States
Sources: CRS, using ESRI and U.S. State Department data.
in August 2020 for strategic dialogue talks. Persistent
Iran-U.S. Tensions Grip Iraq
reform demands from Iraqi activists and U.S. pressure for
U.S.-Iran confrontation amplifies underlying disputes
action against Iran-backed armed groups continue to
among Iraqis over government leadership and Iraq’s
dominate the policy agenda in Iraq, as COVID-19 infection
international orientation and security partnerships.
rates remain high.
Following escalating Iran-linked threats in 2018 and 2019,
Demands of Protest Movement Unmet
a January 2020 U.S. air strike in Iraq killed Iranian Islamic
Al Kadhimi’s predecessor, Adel Abd Al Mahdi, resigned in
Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force Commander
November 2019, after just over a year in office and
General Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi Popular Mobilization
following deadly attacks by some security forces and
Forces (PMF) leader Abu Mahdi al Muhandis. Iran
militias that killed hundreds of protestors and wounded
launched missiles at Iraqi bases hosting U.S. forces in
thousands across central and southern Iraq. Abd Al Mahdi
retaliation for the U.S. strike, injuring U.S. personnel. In
served in a caretaker role while political blocs grappled
addition, the COR voted to direct then-acting Prime
over identifying his replacement. A spirited protest
Minister Abd Al Mahdi to remove foreign forces from Iraq,
movement, of unprecedented scope in Iraq’s post-2003
but he deferred pending the seating of the new government.
history, had erupted in October 2019 and mobilized
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Iraq and U.S. Policy
The U.S. operation eliminated key figures in Iran’s efforts
territory disputed between the Kurdistan region and the rest
to shape Iraqi security and politics, but also led to the
of Iraq.
temporary suspension of security cooperation and training.
Some security cooperation activities have resumed, but
Partnership with the United States
some Iraqi armed groups continue to conduct rocket and
The Trump Administration’s approach to Iraq has sought to
IED attacks against Iraqi and U.S. facilities and convoys.
promote Iraqi unity and stability, prevent an IS resurgence,
Some attacks have killed and injured U.S. and coalition
and limit Iranian influence in Iraq. Iraqi activists’ calls for
personnel, along with Iraqi personnel and civilians.
improved governance, reliable local services, more
trustworthy and capable security forces, and greater
The Trump Administration reportedly has threatened to
economic opportunity broadly correspond to stated U.S.
close the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad if Iraqi authorities do
goals. During the peak period of unrest from October 2019
not act more comprehensively against groups threatening
to March 2020, U.S. officials advocated for protestors’
U.S. personnel and facilities, and in December 2020 began
rights to demonstrate and express themselves, while urging
reducing the number of U.S. citizen personnel in Iraq. Staff
Iraqi leaders to respond seriously to protestors’ demands
reductions and facility closures could limit U.S. diplomatic,
and to prevent attacks against unarmed demonstrators.
consular, and assistance activities, and some observers
argue such steps could lower retaliation risks from any U.S.
Iraqi and U.S. leaders have engaged in a high-level strategic
military strikes against hostile Iran-aligned armed groups.
dialogue in 2020 to renew shared understandings about
bilateral security cooperation and U.S. assistance. Meeting
Pandemic Worsens and Economy Suffers in August, Iraqi and U.S. officials endorsed continued
Since March 2020, Iraq’s government has instituted travel
security cooperation, including a U.S. military presence.
restrictions and internal curfews while mobilizing the
U.S. Central Command subsequently announced that U.S.
country’s limited health resources to fight the COVID-19
force levels in Iraq would decline from 5,200 to 3,000, and
pandemic. Iraq’s public and private health systems have
in November, President Trump directed a further drawdown
significant shortcomings and limited capacity. According to
to 2,500 by January 2021.
the World Bank, Iraq has approximately 0.8 physicians and
The drawdowns reflect U.S. assessments that Iraq’s security
1.3 hospital beds per 1,000 people (below the global
forces increasingly are capable of independent operations
averages of 1.5 and 2.7, respectively). Data is incomplete,
again the remnants of the Islamic State group. U.S. forces
but reported infections increased rapidly through August,
have consolidated on fewer Iraqi facilities, and in 2020
with new case rates remaining above 2,000 daily by
returned a number of facilities used for operations and
December. As of December 3, Iraq had recorded more than
training to full Iraqi control. U.S. military remain in Iraq
558,000 COVID-19 cases with more than 12,360 deaths.
pursuant to a 2014 exchange of diplomatic notes under the
COVID-19 mitigation measures have deepened an
2008 bilateral Strategic Framework Agreement. The U.S.
economic contraction that had already begun in urban areas
Consulate in Basra remains closed due to security concerns.
paralyzed by protests in late 2019 and early 2020. In
The U.S. Consulate in Erbil remains operational.
parallel, a precipitous drop in global oil prices has slashed
Congress has authorized U.S. train and equip programs for
state finances. Iraq remains dependent on oil exports for
Iraq through December 2020, including aid to KRG forces,
more than 90% of its budget revenue, much of which pays
and has appropriated defense funding for the train and
salaries and benefits to state employees and retirees. Iraq
equip programs through September 2021. Since 2014,
has been forced both to accept lower prices and reduce
Congress has appropriated more than $6.5 billion for train
output in accordance with decisions reached by the
and equip programs for Iraqis. The FY2021 National
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
Defense Authorization Act conference report would
and non-OPEC countries (OPEC+), including Russia. In
authorize $322.5 million of the Administration’s requested
November the COR passed legislation to allow the
$645 million for train and equip efforts under Iraq-specific
government to borrow, but less than it requested. Iraqi
authorities extended through 2021, with the rest ($322.5
leaders publicly describe the dire condition of state
million) authorized for Iraq under 10 U.S.C. 333.
finances, while protests have followed cabinet-approved
The United States provides foreign aid in Iraq in support of
public sector spending cuts.
de-mining programs, public sector financial management
Views from the Kurdistan Region
reform, U.N.-coordinated stabilization, and other goals. The
Leaders of Iraq’s federal Kurdistan Regional Government
U.S. government has obligated more than $365 million for
stabilization of liberated areas of Iraq since 2016, including
(KRG) defend the Kurdistan region’s rights under Iraq’s
constitution and remain engaged with Baghdad on oil,
funds for religious and ethnic minority communities.
budget, and security differences. The KRG has instituted
Congress allocated $451.6 million for U.S. foreign aid
local COVID-19 containment and curfew measures. The
programs in Iraq in FY2020. The Trump Administration
two largest Kurdish parties, the Erbil-based Kurdistan
has requested $124.5 million for FY2021. The United
Democratic Party (KDP) and the Suleimaniyah-based
States is the top humanitarian funding donor for Iraq and
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), hold significant
provided more than $345 million in humanitarian aid for
numbers of COR seats and won the most seats in the
Iraq in FY2020, including more than $47 million for
KRG’s September 2018 regional election. KDP leader
COVID-19 programs. Nearly 1.3 million Iraqis remain
Masrour Barzani serves as KRG Prime Minister. His cousin
internally displaced and many more remain in need of aid.
Nechirvan Barzani is KRG President. Islamic State
insurgents have exploited security and governance gaps in
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Iraq and U.S. Policy
IF10404
Christopher M. Blanchard, Specialist in Middle Eastern
Affairs
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