INSIGHTi
Bolivia: October 18, 2020, General Elections
Updated October 13, 2020
Bolivia is scheduled to hold parliamentary and presidential elections on October 18, 2020, with a
presidential runoff on November 29, if necessary. The country has been extremely polarized since the
November 2019 resignation of President Evo Morales of the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party
following annulled October 2019 elections. New elections original y were scheduled for May 2020, but
Bolivia’s electoral tribunal postponed them twice due to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
pandemic. The United States has expressed concern about political volatility in Bolivia and supported
efforts to ensure the upcoming elections are free and fair.
October Elections Annulled
Figure 1. Map of Bolivia
Morales, Bolivia’s first indigenous president,
transformed Bolivia, but observers have criticized
his efforts to remain in office (he won elections in
2006, 2009, and 2014). In 2017, Bolivia’s
Constitutional Tribunal removed limits on
reelection established in the 2009 constitution,
effectively overruling a 2016 referendum in
which voters rejected a constitutional change that
would have al owed Morales to run again.
Al egations of fraud marred Bolivia’s October

2019 election. The electoral tribunal said Morales
exceeded the 10-point margin necessary to avoid
Source: CRS Graphics.
a runoff against former president Carlos Mesa, but Mesa rejected that result. Protests ensued, with some
pushing for a new election and others cal ing for Morales’s resignation.
On November 10, the Organization of American States (OAS) issued preliminary findings suggesting
enough irregularities to merit a new election. (Some experts have chal enged aspects of those findings.)
Morales agreed to hold new elections, but the opposition rejected his offer. Morales resigned after police
refused to suppress protests and the military urged him to step down. He now has asylum in Argentina. In
late November 2019, the MAS-led Congress passed a law to annul the elections and select a new electoral
tribunal. In December, the final OAS election report found “intentional manipulation” of the results.
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Interim Government
Jeanine Áñez, a little-known opposition senator, became president fol owing the resignations of several
MAS officials ahead of her in the line of succession. Áñez’s conservative cabinet and history of anti-
indigenous rhetoric raised concerns among Bolivia’s indigenous population, which became empowered
under Morales. The MAS-led Congress initial y refused to accept Áñez’s government, and MAS
supporters protested. The Inter-American Commission of Human Rights recorded 36 deaths and 400
injuries due to clashes between security forces and protesters in mid-November 2019, including two
massacres involving state forces. Observers fear a resurgence in postelection violence if any of the
candidates refuse to accept the election results.
According to Bolivia’s constitution, the interim government has a limited mandate: to convene new
elections. Observers have criticized Áñez for exceeding that mandate, particularly after she decided to run
for president in January 2020. Áñez’s government has reversed Bolivia’s foreign policy positions vis-à-
vis Venezuela and Cuba, charged Morales with terrorism, pursued cases against former MAS officials,
and criminalized “disinformation” about its troubled response to COVID-19.
2020 Elections
The 2020 elections could prove pivotal to Bolivia’s future and its relations with the United States and
other countries in Latin America. Since Áñez dropped out of the race in September, the leading candidates
include
 Luis Arce (MAS): Former minister of the economy (2006-2019). Leading in most polls,
Arce espouses the state-led economic model and pro-indigenous policies of the Morales
era but could receive limited foreign investment and face strained U.S. relations. Clashes
between the central government and eastern, opposition-led provinces could occur under
an Arce government, particularly if Morales seeks to return to Bolivia or exert undue
influence on the government from Argentina (as he reportedly has during the campaign).
 Carlos Mesa: Former journalist who served as president (2003-2005). Mesa has opposed
the MAS but has more moderate positions than Camacho (see below). Mesa’s platform
endorses multiculturalism, economic diversification beyond hydrocarbons revenue, and
openness to U.S. investment and relations. Some predict Mesa could bring the divided
country together, whereas others predict conflict and protests would ensue if he took
office.
 Luis Camacho: Lawyer and civic leader from the eastern state of Santa Cruz who led
nationwide protests urging Morales’s resignation and could push to erase the pro-
indigenous policies of the Morales era. Camacho would be likely to adopt pro-U.S.
policies but could antagonize the MAS even more than Mesa.
Although some polls suggest Arce could win in the first round, several others suggest a runoff likely wil
be necessary. Should the anti-MAS candidates unite, they could defeat Arce in a second round. Due to
COVID-19, the European Union, and the Carter Center have sent smal electoral expert missions to
monitor the elections; the OAS has sent an electoral mission. As tensions have escalated, the interim
government has warned of “consequences” if MAS supporters protest the election results.
U.S. Concerns
The United States remains concerned about political volatility in Bolivia, but its role in supporting a
return to democracy may be limited due to tension in Bolivia-U.S. relations under Morales.

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The Trump Administration has sought to bolster ties with the Áñez government while expressing support
for “free, fair, and transparent elections.” U.S. officials have praised the Áñez government for expel ing
Cuban officials and recognizing Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s president. In January 2020, President Trump
waived restrictions on U.S. assistance to Bolivia. The U.S. Agency for International Development
(USAID) has provided $3 mil ion in support for the upcoming elections, and, as of August 2020, the State
Department had provided $900,000 in aid to help Bolivia respond to COVID-19.
The situation in Bolivia has generated some concern in Congress. S.Res. 447, agreed to in the Senate in
January 2020, supports the prompt convening of new elections. H.Rept. 116-444 accompanying H.R.
7608 would prohibit U.S. assistance appropriated in FY2021 from being used to impede free and fair
elections in Bolivia. A July 2020 Senate letter to the Administration expresses concerns regarding abuses
and civil liberties violations committed by the Añez government that could damage the electoral process.
A September 2020 letter urges the Administration to work with other OAS member states to ensure the
OAS conducts its upcoming electoral observation in Bolivia in an “independent, impartial” manner.

Author Information

Clare Ribando Seelke

Specialist in Latin American Affairs




Disclaimer
This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan shared staff
to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and under the direction of
Congress. Information in a CRS Report should not be relied upon for purposes other than public understanding of
information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in connection with CRS’s institutional role.
CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not subject to copyright protection in the United
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IN11198 · VERSION 16 · UPDATED

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