Updated August 24, 2020
Belarus: An Overview
Recent Developments
Belarus’s legislature. In 2018, Lukashenko appointed a
Beginning in August 2020, popular unrest has posed a
relatively capable technocrat as prime minister.
serious political challenge to Belarusian President
Alexander Lukashenko (or Lukashenka). In advance of an
Figure 1. Belarus at a Glance
early August presidential election, opposition candidate
Svetlana Tikhanovskaya (Tsikhanouskaya) mounted an
unexpectedly strong campaign to replace Lukashenko, who
has ruled Belarus for 26 years. Given Lukashenko’s
authoritarian rule, observers did not expect Tikhanovskaya
to win the election. However, the official pronouncement
that Lukashenko won with a seemingly exaggerated 80% of
the vote (to 10% for Tikhanovskaya) led to protests. A
brutal and seemingly indiscriminate crackdown has led to
larger protests and strikes of government workers on a scale
unseen since Belarus became independent in 1991 after the
collapse of the Soviet Union.
Authorities have released most of the several thousand

individuals they detained, but dozens reportedly remain in
Sources: World Bank; U.N. Comtrade Database.
prison or are missing. Tikhanovskaya and her children have
Prior to the August 9, 2020, election, however, Lukashenko
left Belarus for their protection. Tikhanovskaya is part of a
appeared to be interested in tightening Belarus’s
new Coordination Council, which is calling for new
authoritarian system. In November 2019 parliamentary
elections and has been targeted by authorities for
elections, pro-government candidates won all 110 seats. In
prosecution.
June 2020, Lukashenko removed the prime minister and
other technocratic officials, instead appointing as prime
The United States, other countries, and international
minister an official from the security and defense sector.
organizations have condemned violence against protestors
and detainees and criticized the elections as neither free nor
Since May 2020, Belarusian authorities have tried—but
fair. The European Council, composed of the leaders of
failed—to suppress an unexpectedly energetic electoral
European Union (EU) member states, further stated that the
opposition. Leading opposition candidate and political
EU does “not recognize the results” of the election and
novice Tikhanovskaya (aged 37) entered the race after her
would impose sanctions against those responsible for
spouse, a popular antigovernment video blogger, was
“violence, repression and the falsification of election
denied his own candidate registration while he and dozens
results.”
of other government critics were in temporary detention.
Soon after Tikhanovsky’s release, he again was arrested
Belarus’s closest security and economic partner is Russia.
while collecting signatures in support of his wife’s
Tensions between Belarus and Russia have increased in
candidacy; he remains in prison.
recent years, with the two countries at odds over energy,
debt, trade, and transit. Since Russia’s 2014 invasion of
Tikhanovskaya became a united opposition candidate after
Ukraine, Lukashenko has been wary of Russian intentions.
two other prominent individuals were denied registration.
Many observers believe Moscow’s preference is for a
Victor Babariko, the longtime head of Belgazprombank, a
weakened Lukashenko to stay in power dependent on
bank owned by Russian energy company Gazprom, was
Russia. Some have noted Russia’s acceptance of political
arrested in June 2020 for alleged financial crimes. The next
change in Armenia, another Russian ally, as evidence that
month, Valery Tsepkalo, a former ambassador to the United
Moscow could be satisfied by a political change in Belarus
States and longtime head of Belarus’s Hi-Tech Park, an
that would not reduce Russian influence.
information and communications technology (ICT) hub, left
Politics and the Coronavirus Pandemic
the country under threat. Babariko’s campaign manager and
Tsepkalo’s wife joined Tikhanovskaya on the campaign
In recent years, observers have debated whether
trail; the three women attracted tens of thousands to
Lukashenko could be encouraged to preside over a “softer”
demonstrations. Tikhanovskaya pledged to be a transitional
and more development-oriented authoritarian regime. The
figure who would reintroduce democracy to Belarus.
government released several political prisoners in 2015. In
2016, for the first time in years, opposition candidates were
Many observers attributed the strength of Tikhanovskaya’s
allowed to win 2 of the 110 seats in the lower house of
campaign to popular disillusionment with Lukashenko’s
response to the coronavirus pandemic. Lukashenko, who
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Belarus: An Overview
says he contracted Coronavirus Disease 2019, repeatedly
be possible only as part of an agreement to deepen the
derided the kind of public health measures other countries
integration of the two countries, something Lukashenko has
have taken in response to the pandemic. The government
sought to avoid.
did not institute stay-at-home orders or other closures.
Many Belarusians, local governments, and other institutions
In late 2019, negotiations on oil prices and increased
took preventative measures on their own. As of August 24,
integration failed, leading to a temporary halt and then
2020, Belarus officially had reported more than 70,000
reduction in Russian oil exports to Belarus. Shipments
coronavirus cases and 646 deaths. Many observers believe
returned to their usual volumes in April 2020, reportedly at
the number of deaths is understated; in April 2020,
lower cost (in part due to a decline in global oil prices). The
Lukashenko said that “no one will die of coronavirus in our
dispute led Belarus to seek alternative suppliers to
country” and that seemingly related deaths were due to
supplement oil imports from Russia.
preexisting conditions.
Belarus’s relations with Russia were strained in advance of
Economy
the August 2020 election when Belarusian authorities
After independence, the state retained a dominant role in
arrested more than 30 individuals alleged to be members of
Belarus’s economy. Some argue that because Belarus
the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company.
avoided difficult market reforms, it experienced a relatively
The mercenaries were ostensibly en route to another
milder post-Soviet decline in the 1990s than its neighbors.
country; they were released after the election.
Others contend that Belarus merely postponed necessary
reforms. In 2018, the International Monetary Fund stated
Relations with the United States and EU
that the government’s preference for a “gradual,
U.S. and EU relations with Belarus have been challenging
incremental approach” to reform may lead to “protracted
for years, although all parties periodically have sought to
vulnerabilities.”
improve relations. Efforts to achieve a new rapprochement
began in 2015, after the Belarusian government released
The export of refined oil products, based on subsidized
several political prisoners. The U.S. government waived
crude imported from Russia, is a major part of Belarus’s
human rights-related sanctions it had imposed on a major
economy. In 2015-2016, Belarus experienced a recession
state-owned petrochemical company and eight subsidiaries.
amid declining global oil prices and Russia’s own economic
The EU suspended and then lifted most of its human rights-
downturn. Economic growth averaged 2.8% a year in 2017-
related sanctions on Belarus.
2018 and slowed to 1.2% in 2019, due to the rising cost of
Russian crude (see below). Belarus’s gross domestic
As of May 2020, the United States retains sanctions on 16
product (GDP) is expected to decline by at least 4% in 2020
Belarusians, including Lukashenko. Sanctions on Belarus
due to the coronavirus pandemic.
were introduced in the Belarus Democracy Act of 2004
(P.L. 108-347, 22 U.S.C. §5811) and expanded in 2006 and
In 2019, half of Belarus’s merchandise trade was with
2011.
Russia. The EU as a whole was Belarus’s second-largest
trading partner, making up more than 20% of its
The United States and Belarus have taken steps to
merchandise trade. Belarus’s next-largest trading partners
normalize relations. Since 2008, the United States had a
were Ukraine (8%) and China (6%). Less than 1% of
limited diplomatic presence and no ambassador in Belarus,
Belarus’s total trade is with the United States. In 2019,
originally due to restrictions imposed by Belarus. Since
Belarus’s main exports were mineral fuels (mainly refined
2015, senior U.S. officials have made periodic public visits
oil products, 22%), potassium fertilizers (potash, 11%),
to Belarus. In May 2020, President Trump nominated Julie
motor vehicles and parts (8%), and dairy products (8%).
D. Fisher to be the first U.S. ambassador to Belarus in more
Belarus has a developing ICT industry that exports digital
than a decade; her confirmation process is ongoing.
products and services globally, including to U.S.-based
companies.
During a September 2019 visit to Minsk, Under Secretary
of State for Political Affairs David Hale said the United
Relations with Russia
States “welcomes Belarus’ increased cooperation on issues
Belarus is a member of the Russia-led Collective Security
of non-proliferation, border security, economic cooperation,
Treaty Organization and shares an air defense system with
and information sharing on matters of shared security.” In
Russia. Belarus also is a member of the Russia-led Eurasian
May 2020, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo announced a
Economic Union (EEU) and relies heavily on Russian
shipment of U.S. crude oil to Belarus as part of an effort to
subsidized natural gas and oil and Russian (and Chinese)
help Belarus improve its energy security.
loans. Belarus and Russia also are members of a bilateral
“union state” that came into effect in 2000. This union is
The United States provided a total of about $51 million in
largely aspirational; a common labor market is the main
assistance to Belarus from FY2014 to FY2019. U.S.
characteristic distinguishing it from the economic
assistance to Belarus has been designed to support civil
integration Belarus and Russia have via EEU membership.
society, small business development, and vulnerable
populations. EU assistance to Belarus from 2014 to 2020
In 2019, Russia began reducing subsidies for Belarus’s
amounted to more than €170 million (about $200 million).
crude oil imports, leading to a decline in Belarus’s revenues
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
from its own refined oil exports. For months, the Russian
and the European Investment Bank also have financed a
government said compensation for Belarus’s losses would
variety of development projects in Belarus.
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Belarus: An Overview

IF10814
Cory Welt, Specialist in European Affairs


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