Updated August 2, 2019
U.S. Withdrawal from the INF Treaty: What’s Next?
U.S. Withdrawal
and mandated that DOD begin a program of record to
On August 2, 2019, the United States withdrew from the
develop a new U.S. ground-launched cruise missile. Some
Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. It had
Members, have, however, criticized the decision to
notified Russia of its intent to withdraw on February 2,
withdraw from the treaty and proposed legislation that
2019, and, consistent with Article XV of the treaty, the
would limit the production and deployment of new systems.
withdrawal took effect six months later. The United States
withdrew from the treaty in response to Russia’s
Some analysts argue that the United States does not have to
deployment of an INF-range ground-launched cruise
deploy new land-based missiles to respond to Russia’s new
missile, which violated the treaty’s ban on missiles with a
missile or to address challenges from China; it could deploy
range between 500 and 5,500 kilometers (see CRS Report
more sea-based or air-delivered weapons that are not
R43832, Russian Compliance with the Intermediate Range
limited by the INF Treaty.
Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty: Background and Issues for
Congress).
In a briefing on February 1, 2019, a senior U.S. government
official noted that the United States does not plan to deploy
President Trump first indicated that the United States would
any INF-range systems immediately, as it had not
withdraw from INF on October 20, 2018. He not only cited
developed such systems while the treaty was in force. The
Russia’s violation, but also argued that the United States is
official also noted that the United States was considering
at a disadvantage with respect to China because the latter is
only conventional options and did not, at this time, plan to
not bound by the treaty’s limits. On December 4, 2018,
develop new nuclear-armed INF-range missiles.
after a meeting of NATO’s foreign ministers, Secretary of
State Pompeo declared that Russia was in material breach
The United States could pursue a number of INF-range
of the treaty and announced that the United States would
programs and technologies that could add potentially
suspend its obligations, effective in 60 days, “unless Russia
valuable capabilities. For example, the Army is developing
returns to full and verifiable compliance.” This 60-day
a new Precision Strike Missile with a range of 499
period ended on February 2, 2019.
kilometers (consistent with the INF Treaty), but could
extend it with little difficulty. The United States could also
U.S. Military Options
adapt existing sea-based Tomahawk cruise missiles for
The United States first assessed in 2014 that Russia was in
land-based delivery by developing new or adapting existing
violation of its obligations under the INF Treaty. It
land-based launchers, such as the MK-41 launchers that are
determined that Russia had developed an intermediate-
part of the U.S. missile defense system in Romania. (Russia
range ground-launched cruise missile, now known as the
has expressed concerns about these launchers precisely
9M729. At the time, the Pentagon initiated a study to
because it fears they could be adapted to launch Tomahawk
evaluate whether the United States needed new military
cruise missiles.) It could also acquire a new intermediate-
capabilities to offset any advantage Russia might acquire by
range ballistic missile and deploy it with either existing
deploying a ground-launched cruise missile of INF range
reentry vehicle technology (essentially replacing the
(between 500 and 5,500 kilometers). While the results of
Pershing II missiles destroyed under INF), or design a new
the study were not made public, Brian McKeon, then the
trajectory-shaping reentry vehicle that could maneuver and
Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy,
glide to evade an adversary’s missile defenses.
noted that the United States could respond by deploying
new defenses against cruise missiles, developing and
In March 2019, the Pentagon announced that it would test a
possibly deploying new intermediate-range missiles, and
new ground-launched cruise missile in August 2019, just
deploying other military capabilities to counter the new
after the U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty was
Russian capabilities.
complete. It also indicated that it would test a new
intermediate-range ballistic missile in November 2019. The
While generally supportive of diplomatic efforts to bring
cruise missile, which would essentially be a Tomahawk
Russia back into compliance with INF, Congress also
missile in a container placed on a mobile launcher, might be
supported the development of a military response. The
deployed 18 months later. The ballistic missiles, which
FY2015 National Defense Authorization Act (P.L. 113-291,
would be similar to the Pershing II missile deployed in the
§1651) and FY2016 National Defense Authorization Act
1980s, would take at least five years to reach deployment.
(P.L. 114-92, §1243) called on the Pentagon to study and
plan for the development of possible military options. The
Issues in Asia
FY2018 National Defense Authorization Act (P.L. 115-91,
Several analysts have argued that the INF Treaty places the
§1243) authorized funding for research into defenses,
United States at a disadvantage when addressing challenges
counterforce capabilities, and countervailing capabilities
from China because China has deployed thousands of land-
https://crsreports.congress.gov

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U.S. Withdrawal from the INF Treaty: What’s Next?
based intermediate-range ballistic and cruise missiles that
Press reports indicate that the United States had planned to
threaten U.S. forces and allies in Asia. Some, including
submit the official notice of withdrawal on December 4,
President Trump, have identified this imbalance as a part of
after the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting. It delayed this
the rationale for the U.S. to withdraw from the treaty.
for 60 days after the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel,
and other European leaders argued that the United States
Others, however, have questioned whether the United
should allow time for additional consultations with Russia,
States needs to deploy land-based missiles to address its
in an effort to convince it to return to compliance.
concerns with China. They note that the United States
should not simply mirror Chinese capabilities, as U.S.
The Russian Response
missiles would not be intended to offset or attack Chinese
Russia has consistently denied that it has violated the INF
missiles. In addition, the United States has limited access to
Treaty and initially denied that the missile in question even
land areas in Asia that are within intermediate-range
existed. After the United States provided further details and
distances from China. It does enjoy far greater access to
the designation for the missile, it denied that the missile had
open ocean areas, which may argue for greater deployments
been tested to INF range. It has also accused the United
at sea than on land. Those who support land-based
States of violating the treaty by using intermediate-range
deployments respond by noting that sea-based and air-
missiles as targets during tests of U.S. missile defense
delivered capabilities would be both more expensive and
systems, employing armed drones, and by deploying
more vulnerable than mobile land-based missiles and that
missile defense interceptors on land in the Navy’s MK-41
U.S. assets at sea are already burdened with expanding
missile launchers. (The United States has denied these
missions and responsibilities.
accusations.) Russian officials, including President Putin,
Allied Views
have asserted that if the United States withdraws from the
treaty and deploys new missiles in Europe, Russia could
In the joint statement released after their December 4
both respond in kind and, using existing capabilities, target
meeting, NATO foreign ministers stated that they “strongly
U.S. allies hosting new U.S. missiles in any subsequent
support the finding … that Russia is in material breach of
its obligations under the INF Treaty.”
military exchange.
In a statement
released on February 1, 2019, the North Atlantic Council
U.S. and Russian officials met on January 15, 2019, in a
noted that Russia had “taken no demonstrable steps toward
last attempt to resolve the dispute. According to press
returning to full and verifiable compliance” and that
reports, Russian diplomats said that Russia would display
“Russia will bear sole responsibility for the end of the
the 9M729 missile and demonstrate that it could not fly to
Treaty.” At the same time, the statement noted that the
INF range, while the United States, in exchange, could
“allies are firmly committed to the preservation of effective
demonstrate that the MK-41 launchers in Romania could
international arms control, disarmament and non-
not be converted to launch INF-range cruise missiles. The
proliferation” and “will continue to uphold, support, and
United States rejected this proposal. Andrea Thompson, the
further strengthen arms control, disarmament and non-
Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International
proliferation, as a key element of Euro-Atlantic security.”
Security, noted that an inspection of the missile would not
allow the United States to “confirm the distance that missile
Over the past few years, NATO, as a whole, has echoed
can travel,” and that the “verifiable destruction of the non
U.S. concerns about Russia’s new missile, but some
-
compliant system” was the only way for Russia “to return
Members have expressed doubt about whether the United
to compliance in a manner that we can confirm.” Moreover,
States had enough evidence to conclude that the missile
although the United States has provided Russia with
violated the INF Treaty. This lingering uncertainty was
technical details to demonstrate that the MK-41 launchers
evident as recently as October 2018, when, after a meeting
in Romania cannot launch offensive cruise missiles, it
of NATO defense ministers, NATO’s Secretary General,
would be unwilling to link Russia’s objections to U.S.
Jens Stoltenberg, noted that Russia had failed to provide
“
missile defense programs with the INF dispute by including
any credible answers on this new missile.” He did not,
them in an inspection regime.
though, affirm the U.S. conclusion with the certainty
contained in the December 4 statement, stating, instead, that
After receiving the U.S. notice of withdrawal, Russia’s
the “allies agree that the most plausible assessment would
President Putin announced that Russia would also suspend
be that Russia is in violation of the Treaty.”
its participation in the INF Treaty. He also indicated that
Russia would develop INF-range missiles—including a
According to press reports, U.S. allies in Europe and Asia
land-based version of the sea-based Kalibr cruise missile
were surprised by the President’s October 20
and hypersonic intermediate-range and shorter-range
announcement; several suggested that the United States
missiles—to counter new U.S. systems. However, he
exercise caution before withdrawing from the treaty. For
indicated that Russia would only deploy intermediate-range
example, Germany’s Foreign Minister Heiko Maas noted
that the INF Treaty had been an “
systems in Europe or Asia after the United States deployed
important pillar of our
these types of weapons in these regions. It is not clear that
European security architecture” for over 30 years and said
that “
this pledge applies to the 9M729 cruise missile, as Russia
the United States should consider the consequences,
continues to deny that this missile can fly to INF range.
both for Europe and for future disarmament efforts, of
pulling out of an international treaty aimed at eliminating a
class of nuclear weapons.” Japanese officials also expressed
Amy F. Woolf, Specialist in Nuclear Weapons Policy
concern, calling the withdrawal “undesirable” and noting
IF11051
that it could accelerate an arms race with Russia and China,
and hinder progress toward North Korea’s denuclearization.
https://crsreports.congress.gov

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U.S. Withdrawal from the INF Treaty: What’s Next?


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https://crsreports.congress.gov | IF11051 · VERSION 6 · UPDATED

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