Developments in Afghanistan since February 2018, including a potential change in the U.S. stance toward direct talks with the Taliban, have increased the prospects for a negotiated end to the conflict there. In August 2017, President Trump said, "Someday, after an effective military effort, perhaps it will be possible to have a political settlement that includes elements of the Taliban in Afghanistan, but nobody knows if or when that will ever happen." In the following months, American military operations intensified, with the number of U.S. troops in the country rising to about 15,000.
A flurry of recent official visits to the region signal a possible new emphasis on efforts to settle the war. Many continue to describe the conflict as stalemated. Reports that President Trump (who acknowledged that "my original instinct was to pull out") "has expressed his frustration with the war and is desperate to see its end" are a commonly cited explanation for this new push. A grassroots Afghan initiative, which originated in March 2018 in the southern province of Helmand as a protest calling on both sides to lay down arms, spread throughout the country and culminated in a march to Kabul in June, raising expectations for peace talks.
For years, the United States and many regional states have maintained that the peace process must be Afghan-led and Afghan-owned. In June 2017, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani launched the Kabul Process, an Afghan-managed multilateral forum to secure international support for peace in Afghanistan; the Taliban, who reject the legitimacy of the Kabul government, have not participated. At the second meeting of the Kabul Process in February 2018, Ghani made a peace offer to the Taliban that included recognition of the group as a political party and direct negotiations without preconditions in what was seen as an "unprecedented" development. The Taliban never responded to the offer directly, and announced their annual "spring offensive" in April 2018.
U.S. officials, including Secretary of Defense James Mattis, maintain that "there are elements of the Taliban clearly interested in talking to the Afghan government." However, outside analysts, citing interviews with Taliban fighters, report that the group's members "think that ousting foreign troops by force is the most realistic strategy" and that "the Taliban rank and file are not enthusiastic about peace talks." In May 2018, General Nicholson said that "a lot of the diplomatic activity and dialogue is occurring off the stage…at multiple levels. So you see mid-level, senior-level Taliban leaders engaging with Afghans." The Taliban have denied any such talks.
On June 7, 2018, President Ghani announced a unilateral, week-long nationwide ceasefire with the Taliban coinciding with the end of Ramadan (June 11-20). No ceasefire had previously been put into practice. Two days later, the Taliban responded with a three-day ceasefire (June 16-18) that overlapped with the government's, although a Taliban spokesman denied any link between the two. U.S. forces also halted offensive operations against the Taliban. During the ceasefire, Afghan media was awash in images of Taliban members and Afghan forces embracing as fighters from the two sides mingled and visited areas controlled by the other.
On June 16, the Afghan government unilaterally extended the ceasefire by another ten days (through June 30), but the Taliban rejected the offer. Despite its relatively short duration, many have characterized the ceasefire as a watershed that demonstrated "popular pressure and support for peace," and a moment "politically and militarily dangerous to any party wanting to prolong the conflict." Since the ceasefire, some Afghans report an overall reduction in fighting, and a Taliban spokesman said the group has halted suicide bombings in urban areas, although Taliban attacks against Afghan military targets continue. The Afghan government is reportedly planning to announce a second ceasefire, coinciding with the Muslim holiday Eid al-Adha, for late August 2018.
While the official U.S. position has been that "the United States will support direct negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban when both sides commit to them," the Taliban has for years maintained that it will negotiate only with the United States, dismissing the Kabul government as weak and illegitimate. U.S. diplomats participated in sporadic, informal talks directly with Taliban figures from 2010 to 2012, then engaged indirectly, through Qatari mediation, largely on the issue of a prisoner exchange which took place in May 2014.
In July 2018, the New York Times reported that "the Trump Administration has told its top diplomats to seek direct talks with the Taliban" in a potentially significant change in U.S. policy. Other reporting indicates a decision has not yet been made, with one official stating that "there is…no clear negotiating strategy [and] no personnel to carry out real talks." General Nicholson seemed to confirm the New York Times account, reportedly saying that "we, the United States, are ready to talk to the Taliban and discuss the role of international forces," but a statement released later that day refuted that report.
Some Afghan officials oppose the prospect of direct U.S.-Taliban talks, leading to speculation that resistance within the Afghan government may have led the United States to rethink direct talks with the Taliban. In a recent interview, former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan Ryan Crocker said, "We absolutely should not be doing anything independent of the Afghan government." Analysts and others who support talks argue that the Taliban might "accept some American presence" in Afghanistan, especially as it relates to the Islamic State and other groups with which the Taliban has clashed.
Upcoming political developments in Afghanistan, including already controversial parliamentary elections set for October and a potentially divisive presidential race next year, could impact these dynamics by altering the composition of the Afghan government and, in turn, changing how motivated Afghan officials are to pursue negotiations with the Taliban and how Taliban figures view their interlocutors in Kabul.