October 31, 2018
The 2020 Decennial Census: Overview and Issues
What the Census Is and How the Data
personal visits. NRFU has been, for decades, the most
Are Used
costly part of the census. The strategy for 2020 includes
The census is a count, as nearly complete and accurate as
public outreach via advertising in print and on television,
possible, of every person whose usual residence is in the
radio, and social media; and partnering with outside
United States. Article I, Section 2, clause 3 of the U.S.
organizations, especially those trusted by harder-to-count
Constitution, as modified by Section 2 of the 14th
population groups. The census also will feature a new
Amendment, requires a population census every 10 years,
internet response option, to make answering easier and
conducted “in such Manner as they [Congress] shall by
replace as much of the more expensive mail-out, mail-back
Law direct.” Congress, in Title 13, U.S. Code, has
census operation as possible. Those who cannot or decline
delegated this responsibility to the Secretary of Commerce
to respond online can call questionnaire assistance centers
and, within the U.S. Department of Commerce, the Census
to provide their answers by telephone or can complete
Bureau. The first census took place in 1790; the next will be
paper questionnaires.
in 2020. The constitutional reason for taking a census is to
have an updated basis for apportioning seats in the U.S.
Administrative Records to Limit NRFU
House of Representatives. Census data also are used to
Before NRFU begins, the bureau will use governmental
redraw legislative boundaries within states; to produce
administrative records, mainly “Undeliverable-as-
population estimates and projections; in formulas that help
Addressed” information from USPS, to identify and remove
allocate more than $675 billion in federal funds annually to
the addresses of vacant housing units from the NRFU
states and localities; and by subnational governments,
workload. In addition, the bureau may use records—such as
businesses, nonprofit organizations, and researchers for
those from the Internal Revenue Service, the Centers for
myriad purposes.
Medicare and Medicaid Services, the Indian Health Service,
and the Social Security Administration, plus information
Engaging the Population
the bureau already has and commercial data—if feasible, to
The Census Bureau’s mission for 2020 is complicated. It
enumerate some occupied nonresponding households.
must cover a population that is large, tends to be mobile, is
distributed over a wide geographic area, and, in the words
Technology to Streamline Fieldwork
of a former bureau director, has more “diversity and
The bureau expects that address canvassers and NRFU field
complexity” than in past decades. The need to avoid census
staff will work remotely, using mobile devices for most
miscounts, such as overcounts of people with more than one
administrative tasks and data collection. Supervisors, too,
residence and undercounts of racial and ethnic minorities,
will use the devices for working and communicating with
makes the bureau’s public outreach efforts before and
staff remotely. This technology, according to the bureau,
during the census particularly important.
will greatly reduce the physical space and staff needed for
fieldwork, from 12 regional centers and almost 500 area
Innovations for 2020
offices for the 2010 census to six regional centers and just
Congress has directed the bureau to control the ever-rising
under 250 administrative support centers for 2020.
cost of the census, now estimated at about $15.6 billion for
2020. The bureau has responded with four innovations
Issues for 2020
designed to save money.
Funding Challenges
In-Office Address Canvassing
Heightened preparations for any census generally require
The Census Bureau’s goal is to have the correct address and
corresponding increases in appropriations. During the
geospatial location of every housing unit in the United
earlier “ramp up” to 2020, enacted funding was less than
States. Accurate addresses and maps are essential for
requested and was delayed. The FY2016 budget request for
contacting the public initially and during nonresponse
the census was $662.6 million; the enacted amount was
follow-up (NRFU). In the past, census workers had to walk
$598.9 million. The FY2017 request was $778.3 million;
and check about 11 million census blocks. For 2020, the
the Census Bureau’s approved spend plan allocated $767.3
bureau plans to replace roughly 70% of this expensive field
million to the census. In contrast, the FY2018 request for
work (which cost almost $450 million for the 2010 census)
the census was $800.2 million; the spend plan approved
with in-office canvassing, using data from satellite imagery,
$2,094.9 million. The amount for Periodic Censuses and
the U.S. Postal Service (USPS), subnational governments,
Programs (PCP), the account that includes the census, was
and third-party sources.
$2,545.4 million, available until September 30, 2020. For
FY2019, the census request was $3,015.1 million. The
Emphasis on Prompt Responses
House Committee on Appropriations, reporting H.R. 5952,
The bureau is emphasizing prompt responses in the initial
recommended $4,529.7 million for PCP. The committee
phase of the census, to limit the need for later follow-up by
stated that the bill, together with the FY2018-approved
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The 2020 Decennial Census: Overview and Issues
amount, would fund the census adequately in FY2019 and
heightened anxiety about data confidentiality among certain
the first quarter of FY2020, but did not specify amounts.
foreign-born respondents and reluctance to answer
The Senate Appropriations Committee report on S. 3072
questions, particularly about citizenship status. Six former
recommended the amount requested for the census. FY2018
bureau directors, from both Republican and Democratic
ended without final action on the bureau’s FY2019
administrations, signed a January 26, 2018, letter to
appropriations. P.L. 115-245, Division C, the Continuing
Secretary Ross, opposing the late-date introduction of an
Appropriations Act, 2019, funds the bureau at the FY2018-
untested citizenship question. Multiple lawsuits were filed
approved level through December 7, 2018.
to block the question; Judge Jesse Furman, U.S. District
Court for the Southern District of New York, ruled on July
Reduced Testing
26, 2018, that the consolidated suit State of New York et al.
Throughout each decade, the Census Bureau tests parts of
vs. U.S. Department of Commerce et al. could proceed.
census operations and procedures to determine whether
they will work as intended. Testing is considered essential
Technology Challenges
for a successful enumeration; however, funding delays and
According to GAO, the Census Bureau plans heavy reliance
shortfalls have truncated some 2020 census tests. In 2017,
on new and existing IT systems and infrastructure to
for example, the bureau tested new internet systems on a
support operations, first in the 2018 test, then in the actual
nationwide sample of about 80,000 housing units. The test
census. During the test, the bureau is to deploy 44 systems
was to have included field operations in Puerto Rico, the
that will support address canvassing; responses by internet,
Standing Rock Indian Reservation in North and South
on paper, and by phone; field enumeration; and data
Dakota, and the Colville Indian Reservation and off-
tabulation and dissemination. By June 2018, 36 of the 44
reservation trust land in Washington. In late 2016, the
systems for the test had been developed; development of
bureau announced that it would not include these areas, due
the remaining 8 was progressing. As of August 2018, 11 of
to uncertain FY2017 funding. Similarly, the 2018 census
the systems were being developed or adapted as part of the
test of all major 2020 census components—the bureau’s last
bureau’s new Census Enterprise Data Collection and
chance to identify and correct problems ahead of the
Processing (CEDCaP) “system of systems.” CEDCaP will
census—was to have covered more than 700,000 housing
provide, in the bureau’s words, “shared data collection and
units in Pierce County, Washington; Providence County,
processing across all censuses and surveys.” GAO’s
Rhode Island; and nine West Virginia counties. Inadequate
February 2015 and February 2017 reports on “high-risk”
funding caused the bureau to test only address canvassing
programs, however, called CEDCaP “an IT investment in
in all these areas; the full test, which will continue through
need of attention.” The 2017 report added the 2020 census
April 2019, is limited to Providence County.
itself to the high-risk list, partly because of the bureau’s
continuing problems and delays in developing IT systems,
Citizenship Question
testing them, correcting deficiencies, and making them
The 1950 census was the last one to date that collected
secure; and challenges in managing IT contractors.
citizenship information from the whole U.S. resident
population. The 1960 census had no citizenship question
In June 2018, GAO reported one example of ongoing IT
per se but queried a sample of respondents about birthplace.
problems. Bureau officials knew from earlier census
From 1970 on, the Census Bureau asked a population
surveys that the software for address canvassing in the 2018
sample about citizenship or naturalization status, first as
test sometimes would not transmit address and map updates
part of the decennial census, then in the American
from field workers’ laptop computers back to headquarters,
Community Survey (ACS). Secretary of Commerce Wilbur
and that no system-generated warning existed to alert
Ross and his staff reportedly asked the U.S. Department of
anyone when a transmission failed. The software flaw, the
Justice (DOJ) if it would request the Census Bureau to
officials acknowledged, had persisted despite attempts to
collect citizenship data in the 2020 census. DOJ made the
fix it and might not be corrected before the census.
request on December 12, 2017. Secretary Ross announced
on March 26, 2018, that the 2020 census will ask the ACS
Temporary Workforce
question “Is this person a citizen of the United States?” The
An additional challenge the Census Bureau has noted as
choice of ACS answers is “Yes, born in the United States”;
2020 approaches is the need for a large, diverse applicant
“Yes, born in Puerto Rico, Guam, the U.S. Virgin Islands,
pool from which to hire qualified temporary workers, such
or Northern Marianas”; “Yes, born abroad of U.S. citizen
as address canvassers and NRFU enumerators. They may
parent or parents”; “Yes, U.S. citizen by naturalization—
be in short supply if the current employment situation
Print year of naturalization”; or “No, not a U.S. citizen.”
continues. The unemployment rate was 3.7% in September
DOJ stated that the census, not a survey with associated
2018, compared with 10.0% in October 2009 and 9.3% to
sampling error, “is the most appropriate vehicle for
9.8% throughout 2010, when the bureau recruited about 3.9
collecting” citizenship data “critical to the Department’s
million applicants. Especially for NRFU, the bureau will
enforcement of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act” and its
need workers proficient in English and other languages.
“protections against racial discrimination in voting.”
Enumerators ideally will approximate the demographic
makeup of the communities where they are assigned, so that
Opponents of the citizenship question have expressed
they can win respondents’ trust.
concern that it may depress immigrants’ census response
rates or cause them to falsify data, especially if their status
Jennifer D. Williams, Specialist in American National
in the United States, or that of their friends or families, is
Government
illegal. Census Bureau fieldworkers in 2017 noted
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The 2020 Decennial Census: Overview and Issues
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