August 8, 2018
The European Deterrence Initiative: A Budgetary Overview
Background
Figure 1. EDI Budget FY2015-FY2019
When the Cold War ended and the Soviet Union fell, U.S.
(in millions of dol ars)
force numbers in Europe decreased from about 315,000
deployed personnel in 1989, to about 65,000 as of March
2018. In view of this reduction and hostile Russian military
actions in Ukraine and across Europe, Eastern European
allies have voiced concern that NATO may not be
adequately postured to defend them against Russian
aggression.
The European Deterrence Initiative (EDI) began as the
European Reassurance Initiative (ERI) in June 2014 to
reassure NATO allies in Central and Eastern Europe of a
continued U.S. commitment to their national security after
the Russian military intervention in Ukraine that March. In
FY2017 Congress increased funding substantially, offering
further military support for NATO allies Lithuania, Latvia,
Estonia, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria. EDI has enabled
the continuous nine-month rotational deployment of an
Armored Brigade Combat Team (ABCT) in Europe of
about 3,300 personnel since February 2017, along with a
Combat Aviation Brigade of about 1,700 personnel that
Source: Under Secretary of Defense (Comptrol er), “European
provides rotational helicopter support to training and other
Reassurance Initiative, Fiscal Year (FY) 2017),” published February
missions across Europe.
2016; “European Deterrence Initiative, Fiscal Year (FY) 2019,”
The current rotation of forces allows each U.S. ABCT to
published February 2018.
experience deploying to Central and Eastern European
countries. One potential benefit is that it may increase
EDI has included separate funding for Ukraine each year
overall U.S. and NATO readiness. A possible concern
since the inception of the program. Since 2014, the United
however, is that a rotational force may be more expensive
States has provided over $850 million in security assistance
over time than a permanent military presence in the region.
to Ukraine through the Department of State and DOD. The
President’s
The Polish government offered in May 2018 to pay up to $2
FY2019 EDI budget request seeks $200 million
billion for infrastructure to support a permanent U.S.
of security assistance to the Ukrainian government in the
forms of “
military presence there, along with the use of state
intelligence support, personnel training,
infrastructure by U.S. forces. A permanent presence may
equipment and logistics support, supplies, and other
have the opportunity to foster closer professional and
services.” The assistance is meant to help Ukraine maintain
cultural ties with a host nation and allied military
its sovereignty, sustain a viable defense sector, and improve
counterparts, and may signal greater U.S. resolve to deter
its operations with NATO and allied forces. Section 1246 of
Russian aggression.
the conference report of the FY2019 National Defense
Authorization Act (H.R. 5515) includes an additional $50
FY2015-FY2019 Budget
million for anti-armor weapon systems and other lethal
EDI funding enables the Department of Defense (DOD) to
assistance.
resource Operation Atlantic Resolve (OAR), the mission
through which European Command (EUCOM) is
The FY2019 EDI budget request would support a total of
coordinating U.S. national military efforts in support of
9,903 active, reserve, and guard personnel in EUCOM.
NATO’s response to Russian aggression.
These include 9,095 Army, 458 Air Force, and 350 Navy
personnel participating in EDI activities in Europe.
Annual funding for EDI is represented in Figure 1. Of note,
the FY2019 EDI budget request contains $6.5 billion, a
According to a RAND report regarding NATO’s eastern
more than six-fold increase from FY2015. FY2018
flank, Russian forces are currently capable of occupying the
appropriations for EDI are not currently publicly available.
capitals of both Latvia and Estonia within three days of the
Appropriations associated with EDI are located in multiple
start of hostilities. EDI’s efforts in prepositioning
titles and budget lines. The FY2019 National Defense
equipment, deploying rotational forces, and improving
Authorization Act (H.R. 5515) would authorize $6.3 billion
infrastructure across the continent are intended to increase
for EDI, along with $250 million for Ukraine security
the deterrence ability of NATO military forces, by allowing
assistance.
them to respond quickly to military aggression.
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The European Deterrence Initiative: A Budgetary Overview
EDI Focus Areas & Selected Activities
Figure 2. EDI Budget Focus Areas FY2015-FY2019
EDI has provided funding in five focus areas since its
(in bil ions of dol ars)
creation. Following are selected highlights of funding from
the President’s FY2019 EDI budget request.
Enhanced Prepositioning ($3.235 billion). Prepositioning
equipment and materiel is intended to allow military forces
to sustain a forward presence and rapidly deploy if needed.
Army Prepositioned Stocks Unit Set Requirements
($2.477 billion). Would fund the continued build of a
division-sized prepositioned set of equipment in Europe,
intended to contain two ABCTs and reduce demand on
transportation assets.
EUCOM Munitions Starter Stocks ($321.6 million).
Would fund the procurement of Joint Air-to-Surface
Standoff Missile-Extended Range (JASSM-ER) and
Patriot anti-missile interceptors for EUCOM.
Increased Presence ($1.875 billion). Designed to fund
deployment of rotational forces and defer force reductions
Source: Under Secretary of Defense (Comptrol er), “European
in order to increase the U.S. military presence in Europe.
Reassurance Initiative, Fiscal Year (FY) 2017),” published February
Army Rotational Forces ($921.3 million). Would fund
2016; “European Deterrence Initiative, Fiscal Year (FY) 2019,”
the ongoing rotation of an ABCT (3,300 personnel) and
published February 2018.
a Division Headquarters Mission Command Element,
Notes: FY2015-17 are enacted figures, FY2018-19 are requested.
along with enablers and support services.
Enhanced prepositioning and increased presence have seen
Aviation Rotation ($100.1 million). Would fund the
the greatest increase in funding since FY2017, with
ongoing rotation of a Combat Aviation Brigade (1,700
infrastructure also markedly increasing in FY2019.
personnel) in support of EUCOM assigned missions.
Improved Infrastructure ($828.2 million). Intended for
Issues for Congress
construction and improvement of infrastructure and
DOD does not include EDI budget requests in the base
facilities to support military readiness and operations.
budget. It funds the program through Overseas Contingency
Infrastructure Enhancements to Support European
Operation (OCO) appropriations. OCO budgets are planned
Contingency Air Operations Set ($363.8 million).
for one year at a time, rather than through DOD’s Five-year
Would fund the improvement of airfield infrastructure
Future Years Defense Program (FYDP). Planning through
and storage capability for U.S. Air Forces in Europe.
the base budget identifies future projections for the next
four fiscal years. OCO funding may complicate long-term
Joint Reception, Staging, Onward Movement and
planning of EDI activities. Without predictable funding,
Integration Enhancements ($192.6 million). Would
EDI partner countries who benefit from the program may
fund the planning, design, and construction of Army
be unwilling to commit to longer term infrastructure
facilities throughout Europe along with their operating
projects or strategic planning. Congress may also want
costs, allowing for quick reinforcements.
estimates of the program’s future costs in order to better
Building Partnership Capacity ($302.4 million).
inform decisions on future funding. However, if EDI were
Designed to build and strengthen the capacity of European
to move to the base budget, Army officials are unsure how
allies to defend themselves and respond to regional crises.
EDI initiatives would rank in importance compared to other
Security Assistance to Ukraine ($200 million). Would
base budget initiatives. This may lead to challenges in
fund security activities with Ukraine’s government.
prioritizing future EDI posture initiatives within the base
budget.
Increase Special Operations Forces Partnership in
Central/Eastern Europe ($55.8 million). Would fund
In accomplishing EDI’s objectives, the relative cost of
the operating and personnel requirements of exercises
rotational forces versus a permanent military presence in
with European allies to increase interoperability.
Central and Eastern Europe may also be of interest. This
consideration may include evaluating the Polish
Exercises and Training ($290.8 million). Intended to
government’s offer to contribute up to $2 billion for a
increase readiness and interoperability of U.S. forces with
permanent U.S. military presence in the country. Section
NATO allies and partners.
1280 of the conference report of the FY2019 National
Enhanced Interoperability Exercises ($100 million).
Defense Authorization Act (H.R. 5515) includes a
Would support exercises with NATO allies that focus on
reporting requirement on the feasibility and advisability
deterring aggression against NATO territory.
of permanently stationing U.S. forces in Poland.
Support to NATO Exercises, Multinational
Exercises, and EUCOM’s Joint Exercise Program
Pat Towell, Specialist in U.S. Defense Policy and Budget
($59 million). Would increase the level of training and
Aras D. Kazlauskas, Research Associate
exercises support between U.S. forces, NATO members,
and NATO Partnership for Peace countries.
IF10946
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The European Deterrence Initiative: A Budgetary Overview
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