Updated March 20, 2018
Challenges to the United States in Space
Preserving key U.S. national security and economic
industries. China is especially aggressive in capturing
interests depends on the continued and widespread use of
market share in developing nations. Nations as diverse as
space-based systems. Satellites are as essential to military
South Korea and the United Arab Emirates are pursuing
and intelligence operations as fighters, warships, and
commercial space industries.
combat vehicles. Major portions of the global economy
now rely on space systems; they facilitate modern banking,
Although the global space economy has grown steadily
communications, agriculture, transportation, as well as a
over the past decade, the market is finite. At the same time,
host of other commercial and civil activities. A June 2015
analysts note that the competitiveness of a nation’s
Department of Homeland Security report estimated $1.6
commercial space industry has major implications on its
trillion of annual U.S. business revenues heavily depend on
ability to field affordable national security space systems.
satellites. Space systems are now a permanent and seamless
Most observers believe that maintaining a healthy U.S.
component in the nation’s critical infrastructure, often seen
space industry over the long term could require finding a
as essential as the electrical grid or the highway system. In
better balance between viewing the space industry as a
fact, the entire global financial system depends on GPS, for
strategic military asset and allowing its firms to compete in
instance.
the expanding global commercial space market.
Space, however, is no longer the exclusive domain of great
A key focus area is the U.S. national security launch
powers, nor does it remain a sanctuary for science and
market. Since the early 2000s, a joint Boeing Lockheed
exploration, free from conflict. In fact, U.S. officials and
venture, United Launch Alliance (ULA), provided the Air
others are increasingly referring to space as a warfighting
Force with a number of certified launchers, the Atlas and
domain. Adversaries are aware of U.S. space superiority
Delta rockets. A new competitor, SpaceX, entered that
and understand the critical reliance on space systems to
market, gaining certification for its Falcon-9 launcher while
achieve U.S. national interests. Many analysts believe it
lowering launch costs. Although the Falcon-9 cannot launch
prudent to plan for a future in which space is increasingly
the heaviest national security payloads, SpaceX recently
competitive, congested, and contested.
test launched the Falcon Heavy, which is designed to carry
such payloads; its certification timeline is unknown. In
Competitive
response, ULA is building the new Vulcan launcher, hoping
Nations with comprehensive space programs possess
that a modern design achieves performance at a cost
distinct military, economic, and scientific advantages, but
competitive with SpaceX.
complexity, expense, and barriers to entry mean that still
only a few nations have comprehensive space capabilities.
Many observers believe that market dynamics have the
potential to reduce prices, but they also require monitoring
The rise of a robust global commercial space sector is
to ensure uninterrupted strategic access to certified U.S.
rapidly altering the picture. Direct spending annually
launchers. The existing Atlas and Delta inventory and the
exceeds $300 billion, with more than two-thirds in the
Falcon-9 are expected to provide sufficient certified
commercial sector. Well over $100 billion in annual
launchers to meet national security requirements for the
revenues arises from commercial space data services
next few years as market dynamics settle. However,
(mostly direct-to-home television). Over $100 billion
developing new rockets remains challenging, and timelines
derives from commercial space equipment manufacturing.
and certifications may not go as planned. This is especially
Finally, governments spend about $80 billion per year on
true in light of broader global market pressures facing U.S.
space programs, with the U.S. government spending
launch companies.
roughly 60% of that $80 billion.
Worldwide, the number of launch contracts available for
Most space technologies have become dual-use, and
competition averages just 20-25 per year. Arianespace in
commercial space revenues now dwarf investments by
Europe has historically dominated this market, followed by
governments. This creates a dilemma. Governments
Russia. China and India are taking market share as well.
regulate their space industries for strategic reasons, but
Launch supply may soon outstrip global demand. Estimates
more and more, nations also compete in the far-less
predict a dip in U.S. government launch demand coincident
regulated commercial space market. Eleven nations now
with SpaceX and ULA fielding their new launchers. The
have the space industrial capacity to develop, manufacture,
U.S. launch sector likely faces small margins for error in
launch, and operate their own space systems. More than 50
crafting future development and production plans.
nations have purchased and operate satellites and have
partial elements of a space industrial base. U.S., European,
Congested
Russian, and Japanese firms still dominate, but India and
There are over 1,000 active satellites in orbit. However,
China possess comprehensive and rapidly growing space
nearly all satellites operate in just three key orbital regimes.
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Challenges to the United States in Space
Low-Earth orbit (LEO) has roughly 500 satellites (at 300-
and focused on space systems as a particular U.S.
1,000 km altitude). Most LEO satellites perform Earth
vulnerability. Some nations, particularly Russia and China,
observation, weather monitoring, or mobile communication.
are pursuing nondestructive and destructive counterspace
Geosynchronous-Earth orbit (GEO) has about 430 satellites
weapons capabilities, such as jammers, lasers, kinetic-kill
(at roughly 36,000 km altitude). At this altitude, satellites
or anti-satellite (ASAT) systems, and cyber-attack
travel at the same rate as Earth’s rotation, enabling a
capabilities. U.S. satellites no longer enjoy sanctuary in
stationary dish on Earth to “stare” at a single point in the
space, and U.S. military superiority there can no longer be
sky to receive a satellite signal. Thus, most GEO satellites
taken for granted. Senior Pentagon officials now openly
conduct stationary telecommunications services (e.g.
declare space to be a warfighting domain.
television broadcasting). In reverse, GEO satellites can
“stare” downward at large portions of Earth, making this
A major development in this regard is the National Space
the preferred orbit for missions such as missile early-
Defense Center (NSDC) at Schriever AFB, CO. The NSDC
warning, nuclear test detection, and electronic intelligence.
is a collaborative effort between the Department of
Between the LEO and GEO are Medium-Earth orbit (MEO)
Defense, the Intelligence Community, and commercial
satellites. Most of the 75 MEO satellites are used for
industry to research U.S. space vulnerabilities and develop
services such as GPS.
tactics and doctrine to deal with potential attacks on space
systems.
These three main classes of orbits around Earth create
restrictions similar to those created by lanes in a road.
Many in Congress, as well as President Trump and others,
Practically speaking, there is a limited number of “slots”
have called for the creation of a new “Space Corps” or
available for satellite operations, especially in GEO and
Space Force, separate from the Air Force, with the mission
LEO. This creates “congestion” in several ways. First is the
to more aggressively finds ways to defend and protect U.S.
sheer number of satellites for the available slots. Some
space systems. Others, including the Air Force, the head of
prime locations for satellites are already crowded. Second is
U.S. Strategic Command, and many in the Senate have
the growing number of actors in space. The 1,000-plus
argued against developing a separate service from the Air
operational satellites are owned by more than 100 different
Force at this juncture. Instead, they argue the Air Force
government and commercial entities from more than 50
should be given more time and resources to address this
nations. Both the overall number of satellites and the
growing challenge.
number of players is predicted to expand.
Against this backdrop of rising challenges, most experts
A third congestion issue is radio frequency allocation. To
view the diplomatic and legal frameworks to govern space
maintain an active radio link to the ground, all satellites
as antiquated and inadequate. Four agreements form the
must compete for a limited number of radio frequency
basis of space law, and all were created in the early space
assignments. A United Nations office, the International
age when space was considered a sanctuary, few nations
Telecommunication Union (ITU), manages radio frequency
had access to space, the Cold War dynamics defined the
spectrum allocation for satellites, which is increasingly
view of space, and commercial space endeavors were
challenging as demand grows.
limited. Today’s realities are different. Experts agree that
the stakes are far higher, more competitors are vying for
Fourth, nearly 60 years of space activities—along with
advantage, and capabilities to disrupt satellites are
some recent explosive events in space especially the 2007
proliferating.
Chinese antisatellite (ASAT) test and the 2009 Iridium-
Cosmos satellite collision—have left large quantities of
According to the intelligence community in 2018, “Russia
uncontrolled debris in these orbital “lanes.” This includes
and China continue to publicly and diplomatically promote
tens of thousands of trackable items (softball size or bigger)
international agreements on the nonweaponization of space
and many hundreds of thousands of smaller objects, any of
and ‘no first placement’ of weapons in space. However,
which may disable or destroy a satellite. Orbital collision
many classes of weapons would not be addressed by such
prediction and avoidance capability is limited, but
proposals, allowing them to continue their pursuit of space
improving. The U.S. has the greatest national capability in
warfare capabilities while publicly maintaining that space
both debris tracking and collision warning, which is carried
must be a peaceful domain.”
out by the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) at
Vandenberg AFB, CA. JSpOC has a growing number of
Space has become a more competitive, congested, and
data-sharing agreements with allies and commercial
contested domain. Experts agree that Congress, other U.S.
companies. In 2014, the Air Force began to develop a
policymakers, and senior military leaders attempting to
“Space Fence” system designed to improve tracking of
maintain the historic U.S. advantages in space face a host of
orbital debris and satellites. It is scheduled to become
challenges.
operational in 2019.
Contested
Steven A. Hildreth, Specialist in U.S. and Foreign
National Security Programs
Most experts consider space to be the ultimate military high
ground, with particular importance to U.S. national security
IF10337
operations. Adversaries have studied warfighting concepts

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Challenges to the United States in Space



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