April 12, 2016
Philippines 2016 Presidential Election
The 2016 presidential election in the Philippines, set for
daughter of the late Fernando Poe, Jr., an actor who lost to
May 9, will determine a successor to Benigno Aquino III.
Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo in the 2004 presidential election,
Aquino, who is limited by the Philippine Constitution to
which was tainted by allegations of fraud. Manuel “Mar”
one six-year term, will step down in June. He has received
Roxas II, grandson of former President Manuel Roxas (the
relatively strong approval ratings (around 50%) in recent
first president of the independent Philippine Republic), has
national surveys, reflecting popular support for his efforts
served in the Senate and in the cabinets of three
to promote economic growth and combat corruption,
administrations. Aquino and Roxas are members of the
although persistent poverty and corruption remain public
Liberal Party, the largest political party in the Philippines.
concerns. The election may have implications for U.S.
interests in the Philippines and in the region, including the
Although Poe has led the race in some recent surveys, each
strengthening of bilateral security relations through the
of the top three contenders has taken the lead at some point
Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA),
in the past few months. A presidential candidate needs only
Manila’s handling of maritime territorial disputes with
a plurality of votes to win, raising the possibility of a
China, and the threat of Islamist extremism on the southern
victory that is not decisive.
major island of Mindanao.
By some measures, the Philippines is a vibrant, if still
developing, democracy, particularly its civil liberties, civil
society, and electoral processes. Nevertheless, corruption
and abuses of power, often perpetrated by politicians,
powerful political families, and local clans, as well as weak
judicial institutions and what some analysts refer to as a
“culture of impunity,” continue to affect Philippine politics.
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) ranked the
Philippines 54th out of 167 countries in terms of the level of
democracy in 2015 (up from 75th in 2012), placing it in the
“flawed democracy” category. The Philippines has an
estimated 55 million registered voters, and had a voter
turnout of 75% in the 2010 presidential election.
Presidential politics in the Philippines largely are based
upon personalities rather than ideology or party platforms.

Name recognition, character, and approachability are
Source: Social Weather Stations, April 2016
especially important to Filipino voters. Political parties and
groupings tend to be tenuous and shifting. Members of
National Issues
Congress sometimes switch party affiliations, and each of
the leading candidates for the 2016 presidential election has
Maritime Disputes with China
had close political ties to one or more opponents. They have
In 2013, the Philippines filed for arbitration under the
not articulated deep policy differences. The candidates
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
mostly support recent moves to strengthen the U.S.-
(UNCLOS), asserting that aspects of China’s maritime
Philippines security alliance as well as the assertion of
claims and actions in the South China Sea violate
Philippine territorial claims in the South China Sea (which
UNCLOS. The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The
the Philippines refers to as the West Philippine Sea).
Hague is expected to make rulings on the case in spring or
summer of 2016. Some analysts believe that if the tribunal
The Candidates
rules partly or entirely in the Philippines’ favor, China may
Jejomar Binay is the Vice-President of the Philippines. He
ignore the ruling and/or take further assertive actions.
was mayor of Makati, the financial center of Metro Manila,
for 21 years. Although he serves as Vice-President, he is
The main contenders for president support international
not politically allied with President Aquino. In the
legal action against China; however, territorial disputes
Philippines, the candidates for president and vice-president
reportedly are not a top issue among many Filipino voters,
run in separate elections and the winners may represent
and some candidates also have proposed rebuilding
different political parties. Rodrigo Duterte is mayor of
cooperative relations with Beijing, with which the
Davao City. Duterte has a reputation for being tough on
Philippines has significant economic ties. Binay has
crime, and some critics fear what they perceive as his
expressed support for resuming diplomatic talks with China
authoritarian tendencies. Senator Grace Poe is the
and expanding economic relations, including possible joint
oil exploration in disputed sea areas. Duterte has proposed
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Philippines 2016 Presidential Election
reopening bilateral dialogue with China and expressed
Grace Poe issued a “20 point platform” that some analysts
support for U.S. military assistance, but not at the expense
say is similar to the programs and policies of President
of Philippine sovereignty. The policy views of Roxas
Aquino, although she has pushed for lower tax rates, which
appear to be most in line with those of Aquino, who has
Aquino has opposed. The senator is seen as pro-business
ardently supported the U.S.-Philippine alliance and upheld
and pro-trade and is popular with the country’s middle class
a relatively strong stance against China.
and intellectuals. Both the Liberal Party and the
conservative Nationalist People’s Coalition, the second
Mindanao Peace Process
largest political party in the Philippines, have courted her.
In 2014, the Aquino Administration and the Moro Islamic
Poe served as chairperson of the Movie and Television
Liberation Front (MILF), a Muslim separatist insurgency
Review and Classification Board from 2010 to 2012. Some
based in western Mindanao and the Sulu archipelago,
Filipinos say Poe, a senator since 2013, lacks a solid track
signed a peace agreement, the Comprehensive Agreement
record and is unprepared for the job of chief executive.
on the Bangsamoro (CAB). The accord, which would
Nonetheless, Poe enjoys name recognition. In addition to
provide for substantial political and economic autonomy for
her famous father, the late Fernando Poe, Jr, her mother,
the Moro people, has met some political resistance,
Susan Rocés, is a Filipina actress.
particularly in the Philippine Congress. Some analysts
argue that the CAB would reduce the threat of Islamist
As senator, Poe has advocated for women and children and
extremism in the region and help enable the Philippine
has fought government corruption and misconduct, at times
military to turn its focus toward the country’s international
placing her at odds with Binay and with the Aquino
maritime borders. Of the top four candidates for president,
Administration. She has chaired a Senate investigation into
Roxas, who has inherited Aquino’s policy agenda, has
the Mamasapano incident (see below) which implicates
expressed the most support for the CAB. Duterte has
both President Aquino and Manuel Roxas. Poe, who was
promoted the idea of a federal system that would serve the
adopted as a newborn, has faced legal challenges—some
interests of the Moros. Poe and Binay have suggested
say politically motivated—based upon claims that she does
renegotiating aspects of the agreement in ways that may
not have proof of being a natural-born Filipino and that she
provide for less autonomy. Both have advocated greater
has not met the 10-year residency requirement for
economic development in the region through investment
presidential candidates. A graduate of Boston College, Poe
and trade.
lived in the United States for more than a decade and a half,
returning to the Philippines in 2005.
Backgrounds of the Leading Candidates
Vice-President Jejomar Binay is a member of the United
Manuel “Mar” Roxas, a Wharton-educated, former
Nationalist Alliance Party, which he organized as he
investment banker, served as Secretary of Trade and
launched his bid for the presidency. Binay served as
Industry under former Presidents Joseph Estrada and Gloria
presidential campaign manager for Fernando Poe, Jr. in
Macapagal-Arroyo and also as a Senator of the Philippines
2004. The Vice-President has maintained popular support
(2004-2010). He lost a vice-presidential bid to Jejomar
despite allegations that he engaged in graft as Mayor of
Binay in 2010. Roxas served in the Aquino Administration
Makati, which are the subject of a Senate investigation.
as Secretary of Transportation and Communications (2011-
Binay maintains that the charges are politically motivated.
2012) and Secretary of the Interior and Local Government
(2012-2015). He has the endorsement of Aquino and the
Binay represents financial and trade interests but also has
backing of many voters who support Aquino’s policies as
populist appeal. He supports amending the Philippine
well as some members of the country’s financial elite.
Constitution to allow greater foreign ownership of property
and cutting income and corporate taxes. The Vice-
Roxas has faced criticism related to two national events and
President, who comes from a humble background, also is
for his perceived shortcomings as cabinet secretary. Some
known for his anti-poverty positions, experience as a
Filipinos faulted his handling of disaster relief following
human rights lawyer, and close ties to the late President
Super Typhoon Yolanda in November 2013. He has
Corazon Aquino, who led the “People Power Revolution”
received some blame for a poorly-coordinated military raid
that brought down authoritarian president Ferdinand
in January 2015 in Mamasapano, Maguindanao province
Marcos in 1986. Binay also is president of the Boy Scouts
that resulted in the killing of a wanted Malaysian terrorist
of the Philippines.
but also in an unwanted firefight with MILF combatants
and the deaths of 44 Philippine paramilitary soldiers.
Rodrigo Duterte has served as Mayor of Davao, the fourth
Although Roxas reportedly was not directly involved in the
most populous municipality in the Philippines, for a
mission, some Filipinos argue that as Interior Secretary, he
cumulative total of 22 years. Duterte, whom Binay
bore some responsibility. Other issues related to his record
considered as a possible vice-presidential running mate,
in government include ongoing problems with
comes from a local political family. Populist in orientation,
transportation infrastructure in Manila and nationally.
his three goals are to “stop corruption, stop criminality, and
fix government.” Duterte gained popularity for aggressively
Thomas Lum, Specialist in Asian Affairs
combatting crime in Davao, which is located in southern
Mindanao. However, some human rights groups assert that
IF10387
his approach, including strongly supporting the police and
military in maintaining order, has led to human rights
abuses, including hundreds of extra-judicial killings.
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Philippines 2016 Presidential Election


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