Prospects for Democracy in Hong Kong:
The 2017 Election Reforms
Michael F. Martin
Specialist in Asian Affairs
June 9, 2015
Congressional Research Service
7-5700
www.crs.gov
R44031
Prospects for Democracy in Hong Kong: The 2017 Election Reforms
Summary
The United States-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 (P.L. 102-383) states, “Support for
democratization is a fundamental principle of U.S. foreign policy. As such, it naturally applies to
United States policy toward Hong Kong.” China’s law establishing the Hong Kong Special
Administration Region (HKSAR), commonly referred to as the “Basic Law,” declares that “the
ultimate aim” is the selection of Hong Kong’s Chief Executive (CE) and Legislative Council
(Legco) by universal suffrage. The year 2015 may be a pivotal year for making progress toward
the objectives of both of these laws. It could also be a year in which the democratic hopes and
aspirations of many Hong Kong residents remain unfulfilled.
Hong Kong’s current Chief Executive, Leung Chun-ying, initiated a six-step process in July 2014
whereby Hong Kong’s Basic Law could be amended to allow the selection of the Chief Executive
by universal suffrage in 2017. On August 31, 2014, China’s National People’s Congress Standing
Committee (NPCSC) completed the second step of the reform process when it issued a decision
setting comparatively strict conditions on the adoption of universal suffrage for the 2017 CE
elections that seemingly preclude the nomination of a pro-democracy candidate. On April 22,
2015, the Hong Kong government announced the main elements of its CE election reform
proposal. The third step of the process, the CE submitting legislation to Legco to amend the Basic
Law, is to occur on June 17, according to the Hong Kong government.
Anger in Hong Kong over the NPCSC’s August 2014 decision, which set strict conditions on the
adoption of universal suffrage, precipitated the occupation of several major Hong Kong roads by
thousands of Hong Kong residents. These occupations were ended by the deployment of
thousands of police officers, but scattered protests continue. In addition, 27 of the 70 current
Legco members, collectively known as the “pan-democrats,” have pledged to vote against any
proposed legislation that is consistent with the conditions in the NPCSC’s August 2014 decision.
Public opinion polls show a sharp division of opinion on accepting the NPCSC’s conditions.
The democratization of Hong Kong not only has implications for U.S. relations with Hong Kong,
but also for U.S. relations with China and the political development of Taiwan and cross-Strait
relations.
In response to the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, Members of the 113th Congress
introduced the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act (H.R. 5696 and S. 2922), to amend
the United States-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992. The Senate version of the legislation was
amended by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and placed on the Senate Legislative
Calendar on December 11, 2014, but did not receive consideration by the full Senate.
The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act has been reintroduced in the 114th Congress
in the House of Representatives (H.R. 1159) with some changes, but not in the Senate. In
addition, the 114th Congress may consider continuing appropriations for existing programs to
promote the democratization of Hong Kong.
Because the process of possibly reforming Hong Kong’s election laws is underway, this report
will be updated as circumstances or conditions in Hong Kong significantly change. This update
reflects the setting of the date for introducing the resolution to Legco and the latest public opinion
polls on the proposed election reforms.
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Prospects for Democracy in Hong Kong: The 2017 Election Reforms
Contents
Overview .......................................................................................................................................... 1
The Core Issue: The Nomination of Candidates .............................................................................. 2
Current Process for Selecting the Chief Executive .......................................................................... 3
Process for Amending the Selection of the Chief Executive and Past Attempts to Make
Amendments ................................................................................................................................. 4
The 2017 Election Reforms ............................................................................................................. 5
Step 1: CE Report to the NPCSC .............................................................................................. 5
Step 2: The NPCSC Decision of August 31, 2014 .................................................................... 7
The Political Reaction in Hong Kong to the NPCSC Decision........................................... 8
The “Umbrella Movement” ................................................................................................. 9
Public Opinion Polls.......................................................................................................... 10
Step 3: Proposing Legislation to the Legislative Council........................................................ 11
The Consultation Document .............................................................................................. 12
The Response to the Consultation Document ................................................................... 13
The Consultation Report and the Government’s Proposal ................................................ 13
Date Set for Proposal’s Submission to Legco ................................................................... 14
Prospects for CE Election Reforms ............................................................................................... 14
The HKSAR Government Strategy ......................................................................................... 15
The Pan-Democrat Options ..................................................................................................... 15
Division Among the Pro-establishment Legco Members ........................................................ 15
Moving Forward ............................................................................................................................ 16
The Joint Declaration and Democracy ........................................................................................... 17
The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights ....................................................... 18
The NPCSC’s August 2014 Decision and the Joint Declaration ............................................. 18
Implications for U.S. Policy Toward Hong Kong .......................................................................... 19
The Obama Administration’s Reaction .................................................................................... 20
The Response of the 113th Congress ........................................................................................ 21
Implications for Political Reform in China .................................................................................... 23
Implications for Taiwan ................................................................................................................. 24
Issues for the 114th Congress ......................................................................................................... 25
Legislation ............................................................................................................................... 25
Promoting Democratization in Hong Kong ............................................................................. 25
Access to China and Hong Kong ............................................................................................. 26
Tables
Table A-1. Industrial, Commercial and Financial Sectors ............................................................. 27
Table A-2. The Professions ............................................................................................................ 27
Table A-3. Labor, Social Services, Religious and Other Sectors ................................................... 28
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Prospects for Democracy in Hong Kong: The 2017 Election Reforms
Table A-4. Members of the Legislative Council, Representatives of District-based
Organizations, Hong Kong Deputies to the National People’s Congress, and Hong
Kong Members of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political
Consultative Conference ............................................................................................................. 28
Table B-1. Legco Members by Factions ........................................................................................ 29
Table C-1. Legco Functional Constituency Members ................................................................... 31
Appendixes
Appendix A. Composition of Election Committee ........................................................................ 27
Appendix B. Legislative Council Members: Pro-establishment and Pan-democrat
Factions ....................................................................................................................................... 29
Appendix C. Functional Constituency Members by Constituency and Electorate ........................ 31
Contacts
Author Contact Information........................................................................................................... 32
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Prospects for Democracy in Hong Kong: The 2017 Election Reforms
Overview
The manner by which Hong Kong selects its next Chief Executive (CE) in 2017 may be a
bellwether for the prospects for the democratization of the city’s governance system. Although
China’s leaders have agreed in principle that the Chief Executive for the Hong Kong Special
Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China (HKSAR) may be chosen by universal
suffrage in 2017, the conditions placed on the method of nominating candidates may prove to be
unacceptable to the people of Hong Kong and the city’s legislature, the Legislative Council
(Legco).
Hong Kong’s current Chief Executive, Leung Chun-ying (C.Y. Leung), is expected to submit his
proposed resolution to change the CE selection process to Legco on June 17, 2015. However,
controversies over restrictions on the CE’s proposal to Legco imposed by an August 2014
decision of China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) have led to
ongoing protests across Hong Kong and serious opposition from some Legco members.
Since Hong Kong’s reversion from British to Chinese sovereignty in 1997, many of the people of
Hong Kong have looked forward to and campaigned for the fulfilment of the promise contained
in the city’s Basic Law—the election of the Chief Executive and Legco by universal suffrage.
Past attempts to reform Hong Kong’s election process have had mixed results. In December 2005,
Legco voted down proposed CE election reforms after up to 250,000 people rallied against the
proposed reforms.1 On December 29, 2007, in response to a request from then CE Donald Tsang
Yam-kuen, the NPCSC issued “Decision on Issues Relating to the Methods of Selecting the Chief
Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and for Forming the Legislative
Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region in the Year 2012 and on Issues
Relating to Universal Suffrage,” which stated that the Chief Executive may be elected by
universal suffrage in 2017.2 Despite the apparent promise in the NPCSC’s December 2007
decision, legislation in 2010 to make modest changes in the CE selection process were approved
by Legco only after the PRC government and Hong Kong’s Democratic Party struck a last-minute
agreement.3
The prospects for democratic election reforms in Hong Kong are of potential interest to Congress
for several reasons. First, the U.S.-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 (P.L. 102-383) states, “Support
for democratization is a fundamental principle of U.S. foreign policy. As such, it naturally applies
to United States policy toward Hong Kong.” Second, how China handles the possible democratic
election reforms in Hong Kong is one indicator of its commitment to its “one country, two
systems” policy as it applies to Hong Kong, as well as its tolerance of political reform in general.
Third, Hong Kong plays an important role for U.S. economic interests in Asia. If the Chinese and
1 The 2005 proposal would have doubled the size of the election committee to 1,600 members. Opponents to the
proposal viewed the changes as marginal, and were pushing for a commitment for when Hong Kong could select the
CE by universal suffrage. For more about the large rally and failed 2005 CE election reforms, see Keith Bradsher, “Pro-
Democracy Protesters March in Hong Kong,” New York Times, December 4, 2005; and Philip P. Pan and K.C. Ng,
“Hong Kong Rejects Modest Reforms,” Washington Post, December 22, 2005.
2 For more details on the 2007 Decision, see CRS Report RS22787, Prospects for Democracy in Hong Kong: China’s
December 2007 Decision, by Michael F. Martin.
3 The 2010 reforms expanded the Election Committee to 1,200 members and increased the size of Legco to 70
members. For more about the 2012 election reforms, see CRS Report R40992, Prospects for Democracy in Hong
Kong: The 2012 Election Reforms, by Michael F. Martin.
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Hong Kong governments are unable to formulate CE election reforms acceptable to Legco and
the people of Hong Kong, possibly continued and intensified political unrest could harm Hong
Kong’s ability to function as an economic hub for U.S. interests in Asia. Fourth, the resolution of
Hong Kong’s political reforms may have an impact on relations between China and Taiwan.
The Core Issue: The Nomination of Candidates
The crux of the political controversy around the possible CE election reforms is the process of
nominating the official candidates. Article 45 of the Basic Law of the Hong Kong Special
Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China (generally referred to as the “Basic
Law”) states:
The method for selecting the Chief Executive shall be specified in the light of the actual
situation in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and in accordance with the
principle of gradual and orderly progress. The ultimate aim is the selection of the Chief
Executive by universal suffrage upon nomination by a broadly representative
nominating committee in accordance with democratic procedures. [Emphasis added.]
In its August 2014 decision, the NPCSC approved the selection of the Chief Executive in 2017 by
universal suffrage, but restricted the number of nominees to either two or three candidates, and
also stipulated that the nominating committee (NC) be “made in accordance with the number of
members, composition and formation method of the Election Committee for the Fourth Chief
Executive [C.Y. Leung].”4 In addition, the NPCSC decision stipulated that to be officially
nominated, a candidate “must have the endorsement of more than half of all the members of the
nominating committee.”
In the eyes of the pro-democracy Legco
Pan-democrats and Pro-establishment:
members (see text box, “Pan-democrats and
Political Labels in Hong Kong
Pro-establishment: Political Labels in Hong
In the local political discourse, Hong Kong’s politicians
Kong”), many Hong Kong political analysts,
and political parties are frequently divided into two
and the participants in the ongoing protests in
groups. One group is commonly referred to as either
Hong Kong, the constraints contained in the
“pro-democracy” or “pan-democrats,” who are
supportive of the early adoption of universal suffrage for
August 2014 NPCSC decision effectively
the election of the CE and Legco members, as wel as
preclude the nomination of a pro-democracy
greater autonomy for Hong Kong. The other group is
candidate for Chief Executive, and give the
generally referred to as either “pro-establishment” or
Chinese government indirect control over the
“pro-Beijing,” and prefer a more gradual adoption of
official nomination process. All of the pro-
universal suffrage and are more open to China’s central
government’s involvement in Hong Kong’s governance.
democracy Legco members, commonly
See Appendix B for a listing of the current Legco
referred to as the “pan-democrats,” have stated
members into the two political groups.
they will vote against any proposal that
complies with the August 2014 NPCSC decision. The various pro-democracy voices in Hong
Kong have called upon the NPCSC to revise or amend its August 2014 decision to provide for
more flexibility in the nomination process, and have pressed CE Leung to urge NPCSC to
reconsider the constraints imposed by its decision. Neither the Chinese government nor the Hong
4 An English translation of the NPCSC’s August 2014 decision is available online at http://www.2017.gov.hk/
filemanager/template/en/doc/20140831a.pdf.
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Kong government has demonstrated a willingness to reconsider their decisions regarding the 2017
CE election reforms.
Underlying the objections to the NPCSC August 2014 decision is the perception that the
constraints violate the spirit and the intent of past commitments by the Chinese government to
allow Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy over its governance and a promise to allow the
people of Hong Kong to elect their Chief Executive through a free and fair democratic process.
These perceived promises and commitments can be traced back at least 25 years to the 1990
passage of the Basic Law, and contribute to the sense of frustration among many Hong Kong
residents with the latest NPCSC decision. However, Chinese and Hong Kong officials assert that
the NPCSC August 2014 decision complies with China’s international commitments and the laws
governing the HKSAR, and is consistent with past statements regarding the adoption of universal
suffrage in Hong Kong elections.
Current Process for Selecting the Chief Executive
Annex I of the Basic Law, as amended, stipulates that “the Chief Executive shall be elected by a
broadly representative Election Committee in accordance with this Law and appointed by the
Central People’s Government.” Annex I requires that the Election Committee be composed of
1,200 members, with 300 members from each of the following four sectors: (1) industrial,
commercial and financial sectors; (2) the professions; (3) labor, social services, religious, and
other sectors; and (4) members of the Legislative Council, representatives of district-based
organizations, Hong Kong deputies to the National People’s Congress, and Hong Kong members
of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. Election
Committee members serve for five years. Annex I also stipulates that
the delimitation of the various sectors, the organization in each sector eligible to return
Election Committee members and the number of such members returned by each of these
organizations shall be prescribed by an electoral law enacted by the Hong Kong Special
Administration Region in accordance with the principles of democracy and openness.
In addition, Annex I states that candidates for CE are to be nominated by receiving the support of
no fewer than 150 Election Committee members and that each member can nominate only one
candidate. To elect the CE, Election Committee members “shall vote in their individual
capacities” by secret ballot on a “one-person-one-vote basis,” with the specific election method
stipulated in the HKSAR electoral law.
The Chief Executive Election Ordinance (CEEO) is the main HKSAR law governing the Chief
Executive selection process.5 The CEEO establishes the specific procedures and rules by which
candidates are nominated and the future Chief Executive is selected by the Election Committee.
The CEEO also determines the specific number of seats granted to the designated subsectors of
the four sectors enumerated in Annex I of the Basic Law (see Appendix A), and stipulates who is
eligible to vote for Election Committee members for each of the subsectors. In some cases, the
voters are individuals, and in some cases companies or organizations are entitled to vote.
5 The English version of the CEEO is available online at http://www.legislation.gov.hk/blis_pdf.nsf/
6799165D2FEE3FA94825755E0033E532/0B621C1E1F7C5B7A482575EF001BF072/$FILE/CAP_569_e_b5.pdf.
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According to the HKSAR government, there were just under 250,000 registered voters for the last
Election Committee subsector elections held in December 2011.6 Nearly a quarter of the 1,200
Election Committee members were chosen in uncontested subsector elections. For the contested
seats, 27.6% of the eligible voters participated in the election.7 (See Appendix A for details.)
For the last Chief Executive election held in 2012, the Election Committee nominated three
candidates—Albert Ho Chun-yan, at the time, chair of the pan-democratic Democratic Party;
Leung Chun-ying, a pro-establishment ex-Legco and Executive Council member; and Henry
Tang Ying-yen, a pro-establishment ex-Chief Secretary of Hong Kong. On March 25, 2012, the
Election Committee chose Leung Chun-ying with 689 votes. Henry Tang finished second with
285 votes, and Albert Ho received 76 votes.8
Process for Amending the Selection of the Chief
Executive and Past Attempts to Make Amendments
Annex I of the Basic Law also establishes the
procedures to amend the selection process for
Six-Step Procedure for Amending the
the Chief Executive. Article 7 states:
Selection Process for the Chief
Executive
If there is a need to amend the method for
Step 1—Chief Executive submits report to the NPCSC
selecting the Chief Executives for the terms
“as regards to whether there is a need to make an
subsequent to the year 2007, such amendment.”
amendments must be made with the Step 2—The NPCSC determines if there is a need to
endorsement of a two-thirds majority of all
amend Annex I of the Basic Law.
the members of the Legislative Council and
the consent of the Chief Executive, and Step 3—The Chief Executive submits legislation to
amend Annex I of the Basic Law to the Legislative
they shall be reported to the Standing Council for consideration.
Committee of the National People’s
Congress for approval.
Step 4—The Legislative Council approves the legislation
(with possible amendments) by a two-thirds majority of
On April 6, 2004, the NPCSC issued an
its members.
interpretation of article 7 of Annex I (as well
Step 5—The Chief Executive consents to the approved
as Article III of Annex II) stipulating a six-
legislation and submits to the NPCSC for approval.
step procedure9 to amend the selection process
Step 6—The NPCSC approves the legislation.
for the Chief Executive (see text box, “Six-
Step Procedure for Amending the Selection Process for the Chief Executive”).10 That six-step
process has been followed in every subsequent attempt to amend Hong Kong’s election process
for either Chief Executive or Legco. In addition, the HKSAR government has usually conducted
extensive rounds of public consultation to both ascertain if conditions in Hong Kong were
6 HKSAR Government, “Voter Registration Statistics: Election Committee Subsector,”
http://www.voterregistration.gov.hk/eng/statistic20115.html.
7 HKSAR Government, “Voter Turnout Rate,” http://www.elections.gov.hk/ecss2011/eng/turnout.html.
8 A total of 1,132 ballots were submitted, including 75 unmarked ballots and 7 determined to be invalid.
9 The HKSAR government generally refers to this as a five-step procedure by combining the introduction of legislation
by the CE to Legco and the approval of the legislation by Legco as one step.
10 The English version of the April 2004 NPCSC decision is available online at http://www.cmab.gov.hk/cd/eng/basic/
pdf/es22004080554.pdf.
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Prospects for Democracy in Hong Kong: The 2017 Election Reforms
appropriate for election reforms, as well as to solicit opinions on what reforms to propose
to Legco.
The 2017 Election Reforms
The HKSAR government has repeatedly stated it intends to follow the provisions in the Basic
Law and the various NPCSC decisions—including the six-step process—to propose possible
changes in the CE selection process in 2017. In addition, as it did during past considerations of
electoral reform, the HKSAR government has conducted public consultations to ascertain the
necessity for and the nature of the electoral reforms it will propose to Legco. As of the writing of
this report, steps 1 and 2 have been completed, and step 3 is expected to be completed in May.
Step 1: CE Report to the NPCSC
CE Leung formally initiated the six-step procedure for possible changes in the CE selection
process in 2017, as well as the Legco elections in 2016, on July 15, 2014, with submission of the
“Report by the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region to the Standing
Committee of the Nationals People’s Congress on Whether There Is a Need to Amend the
Methods for Selecting the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region in
2017 and for Forming the Legislative Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
in 2016.”11
The CE’s report to the NPCSC was submitted after a five-month consultation period to solicit
opinions from the public on various election reform options, including possible models for
electing the CE by universal suffrage in 2017. The official consultation document, entitled “Let’s
Talk and Achieve Universal Suffrage,” sought opinions on the following issues related to the CE’s
selection in 2017: the size and composition of the nominating committee; the electorate base of
the nominating committee; the method for forming the nominating committee; the nominating
committee’s procedures for nominating CE candidates; and the voting arrangements for electing
the CE.12
During the consultation period, a range of CE election options were offered and discussed. In
March 2014, two academics, Dr. Benny Tai Yiu-ting and Chan Kin-man, and Rev. Chu Yiu-ming
released their “manifesto” for a new organization, Occupy Central with Love and Peace (OCLP),
initiating a campaign of peaceful civil disobedience and public debate to “strive for the election
of the Chief Executive by universal and equal suffrage in 2017.”13 During the spring of 2014,
OCLP held a series of public fora and informal public opinion polls on 15 different proposals on
how to elect the CE by universal suffrage in 2017. OCLP organized an online and in-person
unofficial referendum on 3 of 15 proposals from June 20-29, 2014, in which nearly 793,000
registered Hong Kong voters—or 22.4% of eligible voters—participated.14 A plurality (42.1%) of
11 The English version of the report is available online at http://www.2017.gov.hk/filemanager/template/tc/doc/report/
ce_report.pdf.
12 The consultation document is available online at http://www.2017.gov.hk/filemanager/template/en/doc/
Con_Doc_e_(FINAL)_with_cover.pdf.
13 Occupy Central with Love and Peace, “OCLP: Manifesto,” press release, March 26, 2014, http://oclp.hk/index.php?
route=occupy/eng_detail&eng_id=9.
14 The results of the unofficial referendum are available online at http://oclp.hk/index.php?route=occupy/eng_detail&
(continued...)
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the participants chose a proposal from the Alliance for True Democracy (ATD), which would
allow candidates to be nominated by one-eighth of the members of a nominating committee, by
petitions signed by 1% of registered voters and verified by the nominating committee, or by
nomination by a political party that received at least 5% of the total valid votes in the last Legco
elections.15 The ATD proposal also called for a “two-round, run-off” process to elect the CE.16
Tsang’s report to the NPCSC, however, offered a more limited assessment of public opinion on
CE electoral reforms, including
• “The mainstream opinion is that Article 45 of the Basic Law has already made
clear that the power to nominate CE candidates is vested in the NC only.… Such
power must not be undermined or bypassed directly or indirectly.”
• “[T]here are relatively more views that the composition of the NC should be
decided by reference to the existing methods of forming the EC.…”
• “There are different view on how the NC should nominate CE candidates.…
Some consider that the nominating procedures may be divided into two stages: in
the first stage, the persons contending for nomination shall be recommended by a
certain number of NC members, and in the second stage, the NC shall nominate a
number of candidates amongst the persons so recommended.”
• “Regarding the number of CE candidates, there are two major views. One of the
views is that … it is necessary to fix the number of candidates. The other view is
that there is no need to restrict the number of candidates.”
• “[T]here are relatively more views that there should be two rounds of voting so
as to enhance the legitimacy of the candidate returned by election.”
In the report’s “Conclusions and Recommendations,” CE Leung acknowledged calls for “civic
nomination,” (allowing the public a role in the nomination of candidates) stating:
Regarding the key issue of the nominating procedures, although there were professional
bodies of the legal sector and other members of the public pointing out during the
consultation period that “civic nomination” was not in compliance with the Basic Law, it is
worth noting that there were still considerable views after the conclusion of the public
consultation that the element of “civic nomination” should be included in the nominating
procedures of the universal suffrage for the CE election.
(...continued)
eng_id=16.
15 The ATD’s proposal is available online at http://www.atd.hk/wp-content/Election_Plans/
ATD_CE_Election_Plan_ENG_v2.pdf.
16 To win in the first round, a candidate would have to receive at least 50% of the vote. If no candidate receives 50% or
more during the first round, a run-off election would be held between the two candidates who received the most votes
in the first round.
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Step 2: The NPCSC Decision of August 31, 2014
The NPCSC released their response to CE Leung’s report on August 31, 2014, setting seven
requirements on moving to the election of the Chief Executive by universal suffrage in 2017.17
Those seven requirements were the following.
1. “A broadly representative nominating committee shall be formed. The provisions
for the number of members, composition and formation method of the
nominating committee shall be made in accordance with the number of members,
composition and formation method of the Election Committee for the Fourth
Chief Executive,” [the Election Committee that selected C. Y. Leung].
2. “The nominating committee shall nominate two to three candidates for the office
of Chief Executive in accordance with democratic procedures.”
3. “Each candidate must have the endorsement of more than half of all members of
the nominating committee,” [more than 600 members].
4. “All eligible electors in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region have the
right to vote in the election of the Chief Executive and elect one of the candidates
for the office of Chief Executive in accordance with the law.”
5. “The Chief Executive-elect, after being selected through universal suffrage, will
have to be appointed by the Central People’s Government.” [the Chinese
government in Beijing].
6. “The specific method of universal suffrage for selecting the Chief Executive shall
be prescribed in accordance with legal procedures through amending Annex I of
the Basic Law….”
7. “If the specific method of universal suffrage for selecting the Chief Executive is
not adopted in accordance with legal procedures, the method used for selecting
the Chief Executive for the preceding term shall continue to apply.”
NPCSC Deputy Secretary General Li Fei wrote an official explanation of the NPCSC August
2014 decision that describes the NPCSC’s rationale for the seven requirements.18 Regarding the
size, composition, and formation method of the NC (the first requirement), Li indicated that there
was extensive discussion of the forming of the EC during the drafting of the Basic Law, and it
was determined that the current structure ensures that it is “broadly representative” and provides
“balanced participation” from different sectors of Hong Kong society. According to Li, the
NPCSC decided to limit the number of candidates to two or three (the second requirement)
because it would “ensure a truly competitive election and present voters with real choices.” In
addition, Li wrote that having two or three candidates would avoid complicated election
procedures and possibly expensive run-off elections. He also pointed out that it is consistent with
recent CE elections which have had two or three candidates.19
17 The official English translation of the NPCSC’s August 31 decision is available online at http://www.2017.gov.hk/
filemanager/template/en/doc/20140831a.pdf.
18 The official translation of Li Fei’s explanation is available online at http://www.2017.gov.hk/filemanager/template/
en/doc/20140831a.pdf.
19 Tung Chee-hwa was unopposed in 2002, and Donald Tsang was unopposed in 2005. In 2007, Alan Leong and
Donald Tsang were both official candidates nominated by the Election Committee. In 2012, there were three candidates
for CE nominated by the EC—C.Y. Leung, Henry Tang, and Albert Ho. C. Y. Leung was chosen by the EC, receiving
(continued...)
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Li stated that the rationale for the third requirement—that the candidates receive the endorsement
of more than half of all the members of the NC—was based on two concepts. First, because the
Basic Law requires the NC to follow “democratic procedures,” Li wrote the NC “should follow
the democratic principle of majority rule.” Second, to obtain endorsement by a majority of NC
members, candidates “need to obtain a certain extent of support from each sector of the
nominating committee.”
The Political Reaction in Hong Kong to the NPCSC Decision20
Reactions to the NPCSC’s decision varied widely, especially on some of the requirements
regarding the nominating process. In particular, the requirement that candidates must be endorsed
by more than half of the NC members surprised many people in Hong Kong, as it significantly
increased the threshold from the current one-eighth of the EC members. The limitation to two or
three candidates was also viewed as comparatively strict. Finally, views differed on how to
interpret the first requirement on the size, composition, and formation method of the NC.
On the day the NPCSC decision was released, CE Leung welcomed the “precious offer” from the
NPCSC.21 Tam Yiu-chung, leader of Hong Kong’s Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and
Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) party, said in an interview with China Daily, “‘One man, one
vote’ is the biggest thing about universal suffrage. It is bigger than the nominating procedure,
which may be improved after we have gained experience through implementation of universal
suffrage.”22 Other generally pro-establishment parties in Hong Kong also expressed their support
for the NPCSC decision.
Hong Kong’s pro-democracy political parties expressed a mixture of disappointment and outrage
at the decision. Emily Lau, Legco member and chair of the Democratic Party, said of the
NPCSC’s decision, “We are not North Korea. I don’t think they [the NPCSC] should insult the
intelligence of the Hong Kong people.”23 Frederick Fung Kin-kee, Legco member and co-founder
of the Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People’s Livelihood (ADPL), described the
NPCSC decision as “unacceptable.”24 Ex-Legco member and past chair of the Democratic Party
Martin Lee succinctly summarized the pan-democrats’ objections to the NPCSC’s decision,
“Hong Kong people will have one person, one vote but Beijing will select all the candidate—
puppets. What is the difference between a rotten apple, a rotten orange, and a rotten banana.”25
The 27 Legco members generally considered pan-democrats26 quickly pledged to vote against any
proposed legislation that complies with the requirements in the NPCSC’s August 31 decision.
(...continued)
689 votes.
20 For more about the initial response to the NPCSC’s August 2014 decision, see CRS Report IN10146, China’s
Leaders Quash Hong Kong’s Hopes for Democratic Election Reforms, by Michael F. Martin.
21 Hong Kong Information Services Department, “Transcript of Remarks by CE at Media Session,” press release,
August 31, 2014, http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201408/31/P201408310944.htm.
22 Joseph Li, “Universal Suffrage Is What Matters: DAB Head,” China Daily, September 1, 2014.
23 “Democratic Camp Angry at NPCSC Decision,” RTHK, August 31, 2014.
24 “NPCSC Sets Highly Conservative Framework,” RTHK, August 31, 2014.
25 Demetri Sevastopulo and Julie Zhu, “Hong Kong Democracy Activities Vent Their Anger Against Beijing,”
Financial Times, September 1, 2014.
26 See Appendix B for a breakdown of Legco members into pro-establishment and pan-democrat members.
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The “Umbrella Movement”27
Hong Kong’s reaction to the NPCSC’s August 2014 decision was not limited to Legco members
and major politicians. OCLP posted online its assessment of the decision and Li Fei’s
explanation.28 OCLP founder Chan Kin-man described Li’s explanation as “obscuring the facts
and misleading the public.” OCLP maintained that forming the nominating committee in
accordance with the election committee ensures that it is not broadly representative, and creates a
non-democratic “small circle” with control over the CE’s selection. OCLP concluded, “There
does not seem to be any room for genuine universal suffrage under this framework. Seeing that
all chances of dialogue have been exhausted, our only way is civil disobedience and occupying
Central.”
Two Hong Kong student organizations—the Hong Kong Federation of Students (HKFS)29 and
Scholarism30—organized a week-long class boycott at the end of September 2014 to protest the
NPCSC August 2014 decision. At the end of the boycott, several hundred students organized a
protest march to Tamar Park in Admiralty, where Hong Kong’s Central Government Office,
Legislative Council Complex, and Chief Executive’s Office are located. Supporters of the
students quickly swelled to the ranks of protesters to several thousand on Saturday, September 27,
and protesters began blocking major roads in Admiralty.31 On September 28, tens of thousands
people gathered in Admiralty, including the OCLP supporters, calling for the resignation of CE
Leung and “genuine universal suffrage.”
On the evening of September 28, hundreds of Hong Kong police unsuccessfully attempted to
break up the demonstration, firing 87 rounds of tear gas into the crowd, spraying protesters with
pepper spray, and striking demonstrators with batons.32 To defend themselves from the pepper
spray, protesters held up umbrellas, giving rise to the protest’s name, the “Umbrella Movement.”
The police action against the protesters in Admiralty gave rise to demonstrations in two other
locations in Hong Kong—Causeway Bay and Mong Kok—where protesters blocked roads and
erected barricades. The ranks of protesters swelled to more than 100,000 people. The three
occupation sites remained in place for over 70 days. The Mong Kok protest site was forcibly
cleared on November 24 and 25, 2014. The Admiralty protesters were removed on December 11,
2014, and the Causeway occupation was dismantled by police on December 15, 2014.
Since the protest sites were cleared, supporters of the Umbrella Movement have continued their
campaign against the NPCSC decision. Virtually every night, reportedly hundreds of people have
27 For more about the Umbrella Movement, see CRS Report IF10005, Protests in Hong Kong: The “Umbrella
Movement” (Update), by Michael F. Martin
28 http://oclp.hk/index.php?route=occupy/eng_detail&eng_id=21.
29 HKFS is a student organization comprised of the student unions from eight of Hong Kong’s universities. For more
about HKFS, see http://www.hkfs.org.hk/.
30 Scholarism is a political organization formed by a group of university and high school students in Hong Kong. For
more about Scholarism, see http://scholarism.com/.
31 Chris Buckley and Alan Wong, “Pro-Democracy Group Shifts to Collaborate with Student Protesters in Hong
Kong,” New York Times, September 27, 2014, international edition.
32 The Hong Kong police have stated the use of tear gas was precipitated by groups of protesters “charging” police
officers, raising concerns about their safety. However, video evidence and eyewitness accounts show that the tear gas
was deployed over a six hour period and at times in the direction of protesters moving away from the police, raising
doubts about police claims that the tear gas was used in self-defense.
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gathered in Mong Kok carrying yellow umbrellas and signs, claiming to be “shopping.”33
Supporters have also organized “flash protests” in shopping malls and locations around Hong
Kong. In addition, a small group of protesters have camped outside the Legislative Council
Complex and the British Consulate in Hong Kong. Members of HKFS, Scholarism, and other
groups supportive of the Umbrella Movement have organized community education programs to
discuss the NPCSC decision and the goal of genuine universal suffrage.
Public Opinion Polls
Several groups and organizations have conducted public opinion polls in Hong Kong on the
issues of universal suffrage and the NPCSC August 2014 decision. While there has been some
variation in the results of these surveys, none have consistently shown a clear majority either in
favor or opposed to Legco’s passing an election reform proposal consistent with the NPCSC
decision. Most public opinion surveys found a sharply divided opinion with slight pluralities
either supporting or opposing the reforms.
A public opinion poll conducted by the Hong Kong University Public Opinion Programme
(HKUPOP), commissioned by the South China Morning Post (SCMP), Hong Kong’s leading
English-language newspaper, during early September 2014 found 48% of the respondents
supported Legco vetoing government-proposed legislation that provided for universal suffrage
based on the NPCSC August 2014 decision, and 39% said Legco should approve the legislation.34
A similar HKUPOP public opinion poll in October 2014, commissioned by the National
Democratic Institute (NDI), showed 54.7% of the respondents said Legco should veto any
proposed legislation based on the NPCSC decision and 33.1% said Legco should approve the
legislation.35
Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Centre for Communication and Public Opinion Survey at the
School of Journalism and Communication (CCPOS) has posted a series of monthly public
opinion polls on political development in Hong Kong between September and December 2014.36
One of the regular questions asked if Legco should approve or disapprove draft legislation
proposed by the HKSAR government if “the proposed draft will forbid people having different
political views from the Central Government to stand for the [CE] election.” In all four monthly
polls, a plurality of the people said that Legco should disapprove such draft legislation.
Starting in April 2015, CCPOS began posting the results of joint surveys conducted by the
CCPOS, HKUPOP, and the Centre for Social Policy Studies (CSPS) of Hong Kong Polytechnic
University.37 The first joint survey found 46.7% supported and 37.6% opposed “the government
proposal on the 2017 Chief Executive [e]lection.” In the survey conducted between May 31 and
June 4, those percentages had shifted to 45.7% and 39.6%, respectively.
33 For more about the new protest tactics, see CRS Report IN10232, Protests in Hong Kong: New Groups, New Tactics,
by Michael F. Martin.
34 Results of the public opinion poll are available online at http://hkupop.hku.hk/english/report/scmpPolReform2014/
index.html.
35 Robert Chung Ting-Yiu, Karie Pang Ka-Lai, and Frank Lee Wai-Kin, et al., Survey on Political Reform in Hong
Kong, University of Hong Kong Public Opinion Programme, Hong Kong, October 27, 2014.
36 For the results of the public opinion polls, see http://www.com.cuhk.edu.hk/ccpos/en/.
37 See http://www.com.cuhk.edu.hk/ccpos/research/rollingsurvey-en.html.
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In January 2015, Ming Pao, a major Chinese-language newspaper, commissioned HKUPOP to
conduct a public opinion poll with a different approach to the preceding polls.38 When asked their
view of the NPCSC decision, 23% considered it a step forward, 29% considered it a step
backward, and 39% considered it neither a step forward nor backward for democracy. When
asked what they would do if they were a Legco member, 56% said they would vote for legislation
based on the NPCSC decision that would allow universal suffrage based on one person-one vote,
and 34% said they would vote against the legislation “so that Chief Executive will be elected
according to the old way.” To a third question in which the Hong Kong government promises
“progress toward democratic election system” in 2022, 64% of the respondents said they would
support legislation based on the NPCSC for the 2017 election and 23% said they would vote
against the legislation.
Step 3: Proposing Legislation to the Legislative Council
In the past, the HKSAR government began a second round of public consultation after the
NPCSC responded to the CE’s report on the need for election reform (Step 2) to discuss specific
issues related to the contents of the legislation to introduce to Legco. This time, however, Chief
Secretary (CS) Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor announced an indefinite delay of the second round
of consultations on September 29, 2014, following the outbreak of the Umbrella Movement.
When asked when the second round of consultation might begin, CS Lam replied:
I don’t have an exact date for the time being. I think what is important is we have to monitor
the situation closely and find the right timing, the right opportunity, the right atmosphere for
us to engage with different stakeholders in society in order to achieve the objective of the
second-round consultation.39
CS Lam formally announced the start of the second round of public consultation to Legco on
January 7, 2015.40 The second round of consultation ended on March 7, 2015. Individuals and
organizations were to submit their views by mail, facsimile, or email.41
Nearly all of the pan-democrats in the Legco chamber walked out on CS Lam’s announcement on
January 7, carrying yellow umbrellas, chanting for CE Leung to step down, and calling for
“genuine universal suffrage.” In a press conference following their walkout, the pan-democrats
restated their intent to vote against any proposed legislation that complies with the requirements
in the NPCSC August 2014 decision.42
38 Details of the Ming Pao poll are available online (in Chinese) at http://www.gcyouth.net/newsdetails.php?id=2850.
39 Hong Kong Information Services Division, “Transcript of Remarks by CS at Media Session,” press release,
September 29, 2014, http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201409/29/P201409290995.htm.
40 The text of CS Lam’s statement to Legco is available online at http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201501/07/
P201501070519.htm.
41 Submissions were to be sent to Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Bureau, 12/F, East Wing, Central Government
Offices, 2 Tim Mei Avenue, Tamar, Hong Kong; facsimile number: (852) 2563 9292; email address:
views@2017.gov.hk.
42 Tony Cheung, Jeffie Tam, and Peter So, et al., “Politicians Condemn Public Consultation That Gives ‘Little Leeway’
for Reform Debate,” South China Morning Post, January 8, 2015.
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The Consultation Document
The consultation document, titled “2017—Seize the Opportunity: Method for Selecting the Chief
Executive by Universal Suffrage,” reiterated the HKSAR government stance that any proposal
submitted to Legco must abide by the Basic Law and the NPCSC August 2014 decision.43 It also
delineated four issues to be considered during the second round of consultation: (1) the
composition and formation method of the nominating committee; (2) the procedures for the
nominating committee to nominate Chief Executive candidates; (3) the voting arrangements for
selecting the Chief Executive by universal suffrage; and (4) other related issues.
Regarding the composition and formation method of the Nominating Committee, the consultation
document stated, “depending on whether there is sufficient support, appropriate adjustments to
the composition of subsectors under the four sectors of the NC, the number of members of each
subsector, and the electorate base of such subsectors may be made during the stage of enacting
local legislation.” However, the consultation document recommended that the existing subsectors
be maintained, and suggested that new subsectors may be added or the distribution of seats
among the 38 subsectors be adjusted if “there is sufficient support.” As for the electorate base of
the subsectors, the consultation report recommended that either the base remain unchanged or
“appropriate adjustments” be made if “there is sufficient support and that such adjustments are
practical and practicable, are conducive to electing persons who could genuinely represent
respective subsectors, and that the wishes of such subsectors are respected.”
On the nominating process, the consultation document suggested that the nomination process
could be divided into two stages. In the first stage, the NC members would recommend
candidates for the NC to consider; in the second stage, the NC would select two or three
candidates among the recommended candidates. The consultation document recommended that if
the nomination process is divided into two stages, a candidate must obtain the support of either
100 or 150 NC members, and that each NC member should be limited to supporting only one
candidate. As for the selection of the candidates, the consultation document offered several
different voting systems—“one person, three votes”; “one person, two or three votes”; “one
person, maximum three votes”; and “voting on each person seeking nomination”—that could be
adopted to select the required two or three candidates. Finally, the consultation document pointed
out that a procedure needs to be adopted if fewer than two candidates obtain the endorsement of
more than half of the NC members.
The key issue discussed in the consultation document regarding the voting arrangements was if a
“first past the post” procedure should be adopted, or if some form of run-off should be held if no
candidate obtains a majority of the vote. If a run-off system were adopted, it could take the form
of an “instant run-off” where voters rank the candidates or voters subsequently choose between
the two candidates with the most votes.
The other related issues cited in the consultation document included consideration of whether the
terms of the NC members should terminate after the CE is sworn into office; and arrangements
for selecting a new CE-elect if the winner of the CE election is not appointed by the Central
People’s Government. The consultation document also recommended that the Chief Executive
“should not have any political affiliation,” and as a result, the CE candidates should disavow any
political party affiliation after they are nominated.
43 The consultation document is available online at http://www.2017.gov.hk/en/second/document.html.
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The Response to the Consultation Document
The response to the consultation document generally mirrored the reaction to the NPCSC August
2014 decision. The pro-establishment Legco members were generally supportive of the start of
the second round of consultation and the contents of the document. The pan-democrats in Legco,
as well as the organizers of the Umbrella Movement and OCLP, were very critical of the
consultation document.
Alan Leong Kah-kit, Legco member and CE candidate in 2007, said, “The [HKSAR] government
is selling fake [democracy] and cheating the people.”44 OCLP founder Benny Tai Yiu-ting stated
the consultation document provided “no room to accept any proposal that has a chance of
satisfying global standards of universal suffrage.”45 HKFS deemed the consultation “pointless” if
the reforms must comply with the NPCSC August 2014 decision.46 Former CS Anson Chan Fang
On-sang said that the consultation document focuses on issues that “do nothing to make the
overall method of electing the Chief Executive in 2017 more fair, more just or more
transparent.”47
Liberal Party leader Vincent Fang Kang concurred with Chan’s assessment, stating “the room for
consultation is not big.”48 However, Fang and fellow Liberal Party member James Tien Pei-chun
indicated that they would support the HKSAR government’s election reform legislation when it is
introduced to Legco. The pro-establishment DAB said it would conduct a series of public fora to
gauge popular opinions about the CE election reforms.
The Consultation Report and the Government’s Proposal
On April 22, 2015, CS Lam presented the results of the second round of public consultation to
Legco, and announced the main elements of the CE election reform legislation that would be
introduced to Legco. The main elements were
• A 1,200-member Nominating Committee (NC) shall be formed consisting of the
same 4 sectors and 38 subsectors that constitute the current Election Committee
EC), and NC members serve a five-year term;
• The allocation of NC seats among the subsectors, the manner of selecting the
members of each subsector, and the electorate of each subsector shall remain
largely unchanged (except for technical adjustments);
• The NC shall approve two or three nominees in two stages. In the first stage,
each NC member may recommend one person for consideration. To be eligible
for NC consideration, a person must receive 120 recommendations from the NC
members. Each potential candidate will be allowed to receive no more than 240
recommendations. In the second stage, each NC member shall vote by secret
44 Tony Cheung, Jeffie Lam, and Peter So, et al., “Politicians Condemn Public Consultation That Gives ‘Little Leeway’
for Reform Debate,” South China Morning Post, January 8, 2015.
45 Ibid.
46 “Govt. Launches Second Consultation on Reform,” RTHK, January 7, 2015.
47 Tony Cheung, Jeffie Lam, and Peter So, et al., “Politicians Condemn Public Consultation That Gives ‘Little Leeway’
for Reform Debate,” South China Morning Post, January 8, 2015.
48 Ibid.
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ballot for at least two candidates and the two or three candidates who receive the
most votes and at least 601 votes shall be the official nominees presented for a
vote by all eligible Hong Kong voters.
• The popular vote will be held using the “first-past-the-post” system, in which the
nominee with the most votes is declared the winner. To win, a nominee will not
have to receive a majority of the popular vote.
During Lam’s presentation to Legco, most of the pan-democrats displayed black placards with a
yellow X, indicating their intended opposition to the proposed CE election reforms. Following
Lam’s presentation, the pan-democrats reiterated their pledge to vote against any proposal that
complies with the NPCSC’s August 2014 decision. All but one of the 43 pro-establishment Legco
members announced they would vote in favor of the proposal. Outside the Legco Building,
protesters both supporting and opposing the Hong Kong government proposal gathered to express
their respective views.
Date Set for Proposal’s Submission to Legco
On June 2, 2015, the Hong Kong government informed Legco of its intent to submit the formal
resolution to amend the Basic Law on June 17, 2015.49 Secretary of Constitutional and Mainland
Affairs Raymong Tam Chi-yuen reportedly said that the proposal would be unchanged from those
announced by CS Lam in April.50 The announcement came two days after most of the Legco
members met with several senior Chinese officials in Shenzhen to discuss the CE election
reforms. The Shenzhen meeting reportedly did not result in any breakthroughs, with the Chinese
officials stating that NPCSC would not reconsider its August decision and the pan-democrats
reiterating their intention to vote against any proposal that complies with that decision.51
Prospects for CE Election Reforms52
As Hong Kong’s CE election reforms enter the third step of the six-step process, prospects for the
adoption of universal suffrage in the 2017 CE elections look dim. CE Leung and the HKSAR
government have repeatedly indicated that compliance with the NPCSC August 2014 decision is
obligatory and that any legislation submitted to Legco will abide by the conditions in the NPCSC
decision. The 27 pan-democrat Legco members have repeatedly stated that they will vote against
any legislation that complies with the NPCSC August 2014 decision. Given that the Basic Law
requires that the legislation receive the “the endorsement of a two-thirds majority of all the
members of the Legislative Council,” or 47 of the current 70 members, the legislation will fail
even if all the pro-establishment members vote in favor of the bill—which is a questionable
assumption. Some Legco members and local academics have expressed the view that it is
49 Hong Kong Government Information Services Department, “Government Gives Notice to LegCo of Intention to
Move Motion on Amendment to the Method for Selecting the Chief Executive,” press release, June 2, 2015,
http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201506/02/P201506020753.htm.
50 “Reform Package to be Tabled on June 17,” RTHK, June 2, 2015.
51 Monica Chan, “Legco Vote on Reform Will Show Who’s Loyal to ‘One Country, Two Systems,’ Warns Basic Law
Panel Chief,” South China Morning Post, May 31, 2015.
52 The analysis contained in this section is based in part on CRS interviews as well as media, academic, think tank, and
NGO reporting in Hong Kong.
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unlikely that the HKSAR legislation will receive the support of pan-democrats unless it is written
in such a way as to make it possible for a pro-democracy candidate to emerge as one of the two or
three candidates nominated by the nominating committee.
At this stage, no one involved in the election reform process appears to oppose the adoption of the
election of the CE by universal suffrage in 2017. The controversy revolves around the nomination
process and its implications for which candidates are likely to be approved and which are likely
not to approved. Some pan-democrats estimate that they can secure the support of about 200 of
the current 1,200 Election Committee members for a pro-democracy candidate—well short of the
necessary 601 members required by the NPCSC August decision. As a result, these pan-
democrats see the NPCSC’s August decision and the Hong Kong government’s proposed
legislation as mechanisms whereby the Chinese government can guarantee only pro-
establishment candidates will be nominated.
The HKSAR Government Strategy
Some senior Hong Kong officials have suggested that the NPCSC August decision provides
enough flexibility for the legislation to amend Annex I of the Basic Law and the local legislation
to amend or replace the CEEO to secure the support of some of the pan-democrats, and thereby
more than two-thirds of the Legco members. However, the proposal outlined by CS Lam
precludes significant changes in the NC’s composition from that of the EC, thereby eliminating
some of the perceived flexibility in changing the CEEO.
The Pan-Democrat Options
Opinions differ, however, among the pan-democrats on the best strategy for obtaining genuine
universal suffrage in Hong Kong. Some advocate voting down the HKSAR government’s
proposed amendments to Annex I, and then restarting the six-step process. Others believe the
Chinese government will eventually revise or reinterpret the NPCSC August 2014 decision and
negotiate with the pan-democrats, as was done in 2010.53 In general, many pan-democrats appear
to think that CE Leung and the HKSAR officials are no longer making decisions regarding the
CE election reforms, and that China’s leaders in Beijing are in charge.
Division Among the Pro-establishment Legco Members
Much of the Hong Kong government’s focus is on the presumed opposition of the pan-democrats
in Legco to CE election reforms based on the NPCSC decision. However, some of the pro-
establishment Legco members may also oppose the CE election reforms for reasons different
from those of the pan-democrats.
The NPCSC December 2007 decision stated that election of all Legco members by universal
suffrage could not be enacted until the CE was elected by universal suffrage. Many of the pro-
establishment Legco members are “functional constituency” members, selected by relatively
53 In 2010, Chinese officials reportedly met with the leaders of the Democratic Party and negotiated a compromise that
allowed the passage of election reforms that expanded the Election Committee to 1,200 members and increased the size
of Legco from 60 to 70 members.
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small electorates, and in some cases, by corporate votes.54 According to some observers, it is
possible that some of the functional constituency Legco members may vote against the
introduction of universal suffrage for the CE elections to forestall the implementation of universal
suffrage for Legco elections, and the possible loss of their Legco seats.
In addition, some of the functional constituency Legco members may oppose the government’s
proposed CE electoral changes if they see them as undermining or reducing the influence of their
constituency in the selection of the CE. Under the current Election Committee, several of the
functional constituencies have been allocated a large number of members, and thereby influence
on the selection of the CE. For example, the agricultural and fisheries sector has 60 members on
the Election Committee, selected by 159 agriculture and fishery associations, as well as a
functional constituency Legco member, also selected by 159 agriculture and fishery associations.
HKSAR officials have expressed concern that a reallocation of subsector seats on the NC that
significantly differs from the allocation on the EC may lead to the functional constituency Legco
members voting against the government’s proposed legislation to amend Annex I.
Moving Forward
Given that the Hong Kong government will submit its proposal on June 17, Legco may consider
the bill in June and July. Legco traditionally meets from January until July, with a break for
Chinese New Year in January or February, and reconvenes between October and December.
It appears unlikely that the Hong Kong government will release the corresponding local
legislation to amend or replace the CEEO when it submits the proposed amendments to the Basic
Law. The target date to introduce the local legislation to Legco—assuming the amendments to
Annex I are approved—is the fourth quarter of 2015, so that Legco may vote on the local
legislation by the summer of 2016.
The Hong Kong government considers it necessary for Legco to vote on the local legislation by
the summer of 2016 to provide time for the nomination and selection of the newly created
nominating committee before the end of 2016 so that the nominating committee may, in turn,
officially nominate the CE candidates in time for the candidates to campaign and the Hong Kong
voters to vote for the new Chief Executive elect in early 2017. The term for the current Chief
Executive ends on June 30, 2017.
The 2015 District Council and 2016 Legco elections are additional complicating factors that
could influence Legco’s votes on the amendments to Annex I and the local legislation. Elections
for Hong Kong’s 18 District Councils are tentatively scheduled for November 2015, with over
400 members to be elected by a popular vote.55 Legco members are likely to consider how their
votes on amendments to Annex I may affect their party’s results in the District Council elections.
54 Legco currently has 70 members—half elected by geographical constituencies and half elected by functional
constituencies. Under the 2010 election reforms, all registered voters can vote in one of the functional constituencies. In
2012, the number of voters for each of the 29 functional constituencies varied from as few as 123 to as many as
1,591,902. Sixteen of the functional constituency seats were won in uncontested elections.
55 In the last District Council elections in 2011, 412 members were elected by popular vote; 68 members were
appointed by the Chief Executive and 27 are ex officio members representing rural committees in Hong Kong’s New
Territories. There will be 431 members elected by popular vote in 2015.
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This is important not only in terms of partisan politics, but because the elected District Council
members may also serve on the proposed CE nominating committee.
The 2016 Legco elections will probably be held in September 2016, with all 70 seats up for
election.56 How the current Legco members vote on the proposed amendments to Annex I and/or
the proposed local legislation may influence their chances for reelection in the 2016 Legco
elections. For the 35 Legco members selected by geographical constituencies, the views of the
voters in their districts may factor in their stance on election reforms. For the 35 Legco members
selected by functional constituencies, the view of their electors—who in some cases are
companies and trade associations—may influence their votes on the government’s proposed
legislation. Legco member Leung Ka-lau, for example, has stated he will likely oppose the
legislation to amend the Basic Law based on the opinions expressed by the members of the
medical functional constituency.57
The Joint Declaration and Democracy
For 155 years, the city of Hong Kong was a British Crown Colony, governed by an appointed
Governor and British civil servants. On December 19, 1984, the United Kingdom’s then-Prime
Minister Margaret Thatcher and China’s then-Premier Zhao Ziyang signed the “Joint Declaration
of the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the
Government of the People’s Republic of China on the Question of Hong Kong,”58 commonly
referred to as the “Joint Declaration,” agreeing to transfer sovereignty of Hong Kong to China on
July 1, 1997. Both nations also agreed to register the Joint Declaration with the United Nations as
a binding international treaty.59
The Joint Declaration contains no direct reference to democracy or universal suffrage. It does,
however, state that the Chief Executive will be selected either by local elections or consultations.
In addition, the Joint Declaration states that the “International Covenant on Civil and Political
Rights (ICCPR) as applied to Hong Kong shall remain in force.”
Under the terms of the Joint Declaration, China promised that Hong Kong would “enjoy a high
degree of autonomy,” and “the current social and economic systems in Hong Kong will remain
unchanged” for 50 years. The Joint Declaration also required China’s National People’s Congress
(NPC) to pass “a Basic Law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region” stipulating
China’s policies on Hong Kong that were to be consistent with the terms of the Joint Declaration.
The National People’s Congress passed the required Basic Law on April 4, 1990.
56 Hong Kong’s Legislative Council has 70 members, of which 35 are elected by geographical constituencies and 35 by
functional constituencies. Currently, Hong Kong has five geographical constituencies, with between 5 and 9 seats for
each district. The 35 functional constituency seats are divided among 27 sectors with one seat, a labor sector with 3
seats, and 5 seats allocated to elected District Council members (who are selected by Hong Kong voters who cannot
vote in one of the other functional constituencies). The functional constituencies consist of selected economic sectors
that are considered important to Hong Kong, such as the financial, legal, and tourism sectors. In some cases, the
electorate for the functional constituencies are corporations or trade associations, not people employed in that sector.
57 Jeffie Lam, “Medical Sector Lawmaker in Surprise Rejection of Beijing’s 2017 Election Framework Following
Survey,” South China Morning Post, February 4, 2017.
58 The English version of the Joint Declaration is available online at http://www.cmab.gov.hk/en/issues/joint3.htm.
59 The Joint Declaration is registered as No. 23391 in Volume 1399 of the United Nations’ Treaty Series, available
online at https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%201399/v1399.pdf.
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On the selection of Hong Kong’s Chief Executive, paragraph 3 of the Joint Declaration states,
“The chief executive will be appointed by the Central People’s Government on the basis of the
results of elections or consultations to be held locally.” Annex I of the Joint Declaration, entitled,
“Elaboration by the Government of the People’s Republic of China of Its Basic Policies
Regarding Hong Kong,” states, “The chief executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative
Region shall be selected by election or through consultations held locally and be appointed by the
Central People’s Government.”
The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights
Annex I also stipulates that “The provisions of the International Covenant on Civil and Political
Rights and the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights as applied to
Hong Kong shall remain in force.”
The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR)60 stipulates in Article 25:
Every citizen shall have the right and the opportunity, without any of the distinctions
mentioned in article 261 and without unreasonable restrictions: (a) To take part in the conduct
of public affairs, directly or through freely chosen representatives; (b) To vote and to be
elected at genuine periodic elections which shall be by universal and equal suffrage and shall
be held by secret ballot, guaranteeing the free expression of the will of the electors; (c) To
have access, on general terms of equality, to public service in his country.
At the time of the United Kingdom’s accession to the ICCPR in 1976, it reserved “the right not to
apply article 25(b) in so far as it may require the establishment of an elected Executive or
Legislative Council in Hong Kong.”62 China signed the ICCPR in 1998, but has yet to ratify the
covenant.
The NPCSC’s August 2014 Decision and the Joint Declaration
In the opinion of some legal analysts and other interested parties, the provisions of the NPCSC
August 2014 decision violate the ICCPR, and thereby China’s commitments under the Joint
Declaration. Some Chinese and Hong Kong officials and scholars have responded by asserting
that the Joint Declaration no longer remains in effect, and that NPCSC decision is not inconsistent
with the ICCPR as it applies to Hong Kong.
According to one Hong Kong legal scholar, the Joint Declaration “contrary to Beijing’s
assertions, imposes substantive requirements on how Hong Kong’s Chief Executive can be
elected.”63 In this scholar’s opinion, the United Kingdom’s reservation on the application of
Article 25(b) of the ICCPR will no longer remain in effect once the Chief Executive is chosen by
an election. Given that the CE election must comply with the provisions of the ICCPR, the
60 English version of ICCPR available online at http://www.ohchr.org/EN/ProfessionalInterest/Pages/CCPR.aspx.
61 The distinctions mentioned in Article 2 include race, color, sex, language, religion, political or other opinion,
national or social origin, property, birth, or other status.
62 See https://treaties.un.org/doc/db/survey/humanrightsconvs/Chapt_IV_4/reservations/UK.pdf.
63 Alvin Y. H. Cheung, “Guest Post: The International Law Case for Democracy in Hong Kong,” Opinio Juris, October
3, 2014.
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scholar maintains that the restrictions contained in the NPCSC August decision contravene the
ICCPR’s prohibition on “unreasonable restrictions.”
However, in an opinion article in China Daily, a Mainland scholar maintained that the NPCSC
decision does not place unreasonable restrictions on the CE election.64 According to this scholar,
Article 2(2) of the ICCPR allows China to establish “laws and other measures” governing the CE
election so long as they comply with the rights recognized in the ICCPR. Since the ICCPR
contains no provisions regarding the nomination of candidates, the NPCSC decision is consistent
with China’s ICCPR obligations.
On November 12, 2014, in response to a question posed by Legco member Emily Lau regarding
the applicability of the ICCPR to the proposed CE election reforms, Hong Kong’s Acting
Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Lau Kong-wah stated
As regards the Covenant, when the Covenant was applied to Hong Kong in 1976, a
reservation was made by the British government reserving the right not to apply Article
25(b). After the establishment of the HKSAR, in accordance with the Central People’s
Government’s notification to the United Nations Secretary-General in June 1997 and Article
39 of the Basic Law, only the provisions as applied to Hong Kong should remain in force,
and their implementation has to be through the laws of the HKSAR. Hence, the basis for the
ultimate aim of universal suffrage for Hong Kong’s constitutional development lies in the
Basic Law and the relevant Interpretation and Decisions of the NPCSC, but not the
Covenant.65
China’s Deputy Ambassador to the United Kingdom reportedly told the U.K.’s House of
Commons’ Foreign Affairs Committee that the “Joint Declaration signed by China and Britain is
now void and only covered the period from the signing in 1984 until the handover in 1997.”66
However, other officials have stopped short of stating that the Joint Declaration is void, while
pointing out that the Chinese and HKSAR governments have done nothing to violate the
provisions of the Joint Declaration.
Implications for U.S. Policy Toward Hong Kong
The United States-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 effectively continues U.S. relations with Hong
Kong after China’s resumption of authority over the city as it did during the time the city was a
British colony, so long as China abides by its international obligations with respect to Hong
Kong, including the Joint Declaration. Among those international obligations are China’s pledge
that it would allow the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) “a high degree of
autonomy on all matters other than defense and foreign affairs,” and the provisions of the
International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights shall remain in force. In addition, the act
states U.S. support for the democratization of Hong Kong “will remain equally true after June 30,
1997,” the day before China resumed sovereignty over the city.
64 Song Siu-chong, “NPCSC Decision Imposes No Unreasonable Restrictions,” China Daily, September 11, 2014.
65 Hong Kong Government Information Centre, “LCQ2: Selecting CE by Universal Suffrage,” press release, November
12, 2014.
66 Grace Tsoi, “Does China Think the Sino-British Joint Declaration Is Void?,” Foreign Policy, December 18, 2014.
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Section 202 of the act grants the President the authority to suspend treating Hong Kong
differently from China with respect to a particular law if the President determines that Hong
Kong “is not sufficiently autonomous to justify” such treatment. In making the determination, the
President “should consider the terms, obligations, and expectations expressed in the Joint
Declaration with respect to Hong Kong.”
Section 301 of the act originally mandated that the State Department produce an annual report on
“conditions in Hong Kong of interest to the United States,” through 2001. That mandate was
extended by subsequent legislation until 2006, but has not been extended beyond that date.
The Obama Administration’s Reaction
The White House and the State Department have been seemingly cautious about their statements
with regards to the proposed CE election reforms and the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong.
In general, U.S. government officials have stated support for the adoption of universal suffrage
for the CE election, and for providing Hong Kong voters a “meaningful choice” (see below), but
have refrained from commenting directly on the NPCSC August decision or the stated positions
of the Chinese and HKSAR governments on CE election reforms.
On September 29, 2014, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest stated that the United States
“supports universal suffrage in Hong Kong in accordance with the Basic Law and we support the
aspirations of the Hong Kong people.”67 He indicated that the White House thinks that “the basic
legitimacy of the Chief Executive in Hong Kong will be greatly enhanced if the Basic Law’s
ultimate aim of selection of the Chief Executive by universal suffrage is fulfilled.” Earnest also
said, “We’ve consistently made our position known to Beijing and we’ll continue to do so.”
On that same day, the U.S. Consulate in Hong Kong released a statement supporting the Basic
Law’s “protections of internationally recognized fundamental freedoms, such as freedom of
peaceful assembly, freedom of expression, and freedom of the press.”68 The statement also
included the following, “We do not take sides in the discussion of Hong Kong’s political
development, nor do we support any particular individuals or groups involved in it.” However, on
December 11, 2014, State Department Press Secretary Jen Psaki said, “we encourage Hong Kong
authorities and the people of Hong Kong to work together to ensure there is a competitive process
for selection of the Chief Executive through universal suffrage.” When asked whether the United
States “would support universal suffrage contingent upon approval by Beijing of candidates,” she
replied, “I don’t think that’s what we said, no.”69
President Obama and National Security Advisor Susan E. Rice met with China’s Foreign Minister
Wang Yi on October 1, 2014, to discuss the President’s upcoming trip to Beijing scheduled for
November 10-12, 2014. During the meeting, President Obama and Ambassador Rice indicated
that the United States was “following the developments in Hong Kong closely and expressed their
hopes that differences between Hong Kong authorities and protesters will be addressed
peacefully.”70 They also stated, “The United States has consistently supported the open system
67 White House, “White House Daily Press Briefing,” press release, September 29, 2014.
68 U.S. Consulate in Hong Kong, press release, September 29, 2014.
69 Department of State, “Daily Press Briefing,” press release, December 11, 2014, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/
2014/12/234953.htm#HONGKONG.
70 White House, “Readout of National Security Advisor Susan E. Rice’s Meeting with Foreign Minister Wang Yi of
(continued...)
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that is essential to Hong Kong’s stability and prosperity, universal suffrage, and the aspirations of
the Hong Kong people.”
Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Russel testified at a Senate Committee on Foreign Relations
subcommittee hearing on Hong Kong on December 2, 2014, during which he summarized the
Obama Administration’s position with respect to Hong Kong’s potential CE election reforms.71
According to Secretary Russel, “the legitimacy of Hong Kong’s Chief Executive will be greatly
enhanced if the promise of universal suffrage is fulfilled. By this I mean an election that provides
the people of Hong Kong a meaningful choice of candidates representative of the voters’ will.”
With regards to the NPCSC August decision, he stated, “While the NPCSC’s decision conformed
to requirements in the Basic Law in the literal sense, it was criticized by many Hong Kong groups
and triggered the public protests that are still underway.” Secretary Russel also “categorically
denied allegations from China that the United States is in any way involved in the protests.” He
concluded by stating
The United States and China each have a vested interest in Hong Kong’s continued stability,
autonomy, and prosperity .… It is in all of our interests to see electoral reform in Hong Kong
that provides the people of Hong Kong with a meaningful choice of candidates, and that the
2017 elections in Hong Kong will be transparent, fair, and reflective of the opinions of the
Hong Kong people.
Following the release of the CE election reform proposal on April 22, 2015, a spokesperson for
the U.S. Consulate in Hong Kong was quoted as saying, “[W]e believe that the legitimacy of the
CE will be greatly enhanced if the Chief Executive is selected through universal suffrage and
Hong Kong’s residents have a meaningful choice of candidates.
”
The Response of the 113th Congress
During the 113th Congress, both chambers of Congress introduced legislation that would have
amended the U.S.-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992, as well as made it possible for Hong Kong to
qualify for the U.S. visa waiver program. Subcommittees of the House Committee on Foreign
Affairs and the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations held hearings about Hong Kong’s
possible election reforms and the ongoing pro-democracy protests. Although none of the
proposed legislation became law, some Members and committees of the 113th Congress closely
monitored the events in Hong Kong and some Members of Congress were critical of what they
saw as an inadequate response from the Obama Administration and the Department of State.72
The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act (HKHRDA; H.R. 5696 and S. 2922) was
introduced in both the House of Representatives and the Senate on November 13, 2014. The
legislation reaffirmed “the principles and objectives set forth in the United States-Hong Kong
(...continued)
China,” press release, October 1, 2014, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/10/01/readout-national-
security-advisor-susan-e-rice-s-meeting-foreign-ministe.
71 U.S. Congress, Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Evaluating
the Impact of the ‘Umbrella Movement,’ 113th Cong., 2nd sess., December 3, 2014.
72 For example, see transcripts of U.S. Congress, House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Asia and the
Pacific, “Hong Kong: A Broken Promise?,” 113th Cong., 2nd sess., December 2, 2014; and U.S. Congress, Senate
Committee on Foreign Relations, Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs, “Evaluating the Impact of the
‘Umbrella Movement,’” 113th Cong., 2nd sess., December 3, 2014.
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Policy Act of 1992,” including “support for democratization” as a “fundamental principle of
United States foreign policy.” The bill also supported “the democratic aspirations of the people of
Hong Kong, as guaranteed to them by the Joint Declaration, the Basic Law, the International
Covenant on Civil and Human Rights, and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.”
HKHRDA supported, as well, “the establishment by 2017 of a genuine democratic option to
freely and fairly nominate and elect the Chief Executive of Hong Kong.…”
Section 4 of the HKHRDA would have reinstated the State Department’s annual report on the
status of Hong Kong as provided by Section 301 of the United States-Hong Kong Policy Act of
1992 for 10 years. The reinstated report was to also include an accounting of “matters in which
Hong Kong is given separate treatment under the laws of the United States from that accorded to
the People’s Republic of China and in accordance with this Act.”
Section 5 of the HKHRDA was the source of some controversy as the Obama Administration, the
HKSAR government and some supporters of the Hong Kong pro-democracy demonstrations
expressed opposition to its provisions. The original version of H.R. 5696 and S. 2922 rendered
Hong Kong
ineligible for treatment different from that afforded the People’s Republic of China under
United States laws, agreements, or arrangements enacted or entered into after the date of the
enactment of this Act unless the President certifies to Congress that Hong Kong is
sufficiently autonomous to justify such different treatment.
The section did provide for a presidential waiver if the President determined that such a waiver is
“in the national security interests of the United States.” The Obama Administration indicated that
it would prefer the certification be done by the Secretary of State.73 The Hong Kong government
and some pro-democracy advocates from Hong Kong objected to the presumption that Hong
Kong was no longer sufficiently autonomous to justify separate treatment from China.74
The Senate Committee on Foreign Relations amended and approved S. 2922 on December 12,
2014, changing the provisions of Section 5. The amended version of S. 2922 would have required
the Secretary of State (not the President) to certify to Congress “[n]ot later than 90 days after the
date of the enactment of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, and annually
thereafter” that “Hong Kong is sufficiently autonomous to justify separate treatment different
from that accorded to the People’s Republic of China in any new laws, agreements, treaties, or
arrangements.…”
Neither H.R. 5696 nor S. 2922 was voted on by either the House of Representatives or the Senate.
Besides the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, the 113th Congress considered other
legislation explicitly dealing with Hong Kong. S. 703 would have amended the Immigration and
Nationalization Act to make the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region eligible for
designation as a visa waiver program country.75 In addition, H.R. 1923, S. 266, and S. 744
contained provisions that would have made Hong Kong eligible for the visa waiver program.
None of these bills was enacted into law.
73 CRS interviews.
74 CRS interviews.
75 For more information about the visa waiver program, see CRS Report RL32221, Visa Waiver Program, by Alison
Siskin.
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The political situation in Hong Kong was the subject of hearings during the 113th Congress. The
House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific held a hearing
entitled, “Hong Kong: A Broken Promise?” on December 2, 2014.76 The Senate Committee on
Foreign Relations Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs held a hearing entitled,
“Evaluating the Impact of the ‘Umbrella Movement,’” on December 3, 2014.77 In addition, the
Congressional-Executive Commission on China (CECC) held a hearing entitled, “The Future of
Democracy in Hong Kong,” on November 20, 2014.78
Implications for Political Reform in China
Ever since the Joint Declaration confirmed Hong Kong’s reversion to Chinese sovereignty, some
observers have speculated that aspects of Hong Kong’s political system and traditions could
influence prospects for political reform in Mainland China. According to some analysts,
democratic reforms in Hong Kong would engender social pressure for similar political changes in
Mainland China’s political system. Other analysts suggested that the Chinese government may
use Hong Kong as a testing ground for political reforms that might be adapted and adopted for
implementation in Mainland China. The notion was that the “one country, two systems” policy
would provide China’s leaders with the leeway to permit democratic reforms in Hong Kong
without what they perceived to be a risk of creating “political instability” on the Mainland.
The NPCSC August decision and the Chinese government’s response to the Umbrella Movement,
however, have fostered a growing concern among some Hong Kong residents about the
“Mainlandization” of Hong Kong. Some observers of Hong Kong/Mainland relations perceive a
gradual drift in Hong Kong towards its taking on characteristics associated with Mainland China.
Such observers argue that this drift has in part been caused by greater interaction between Hong
Kong and Mainland China, and has in part been the result of Chinese government policies toward
Hong Kong. According to this analysis, rather than Mainland China taking on characteristics of
Hong Kong, Hong Kong is slowly becoming more and more like Mainland China.
The NPCSC August decision fits with the notion that some observers have described as the
“Mainlandization” of Hong Kong. The decision established a nomination process that can be
controlled by the Chinese government while giving the appearance of implementing democratic
reforms. In addition, the Chinese government’s criticism of the Umbrella Movement—which it
refers to as the “Occupy Movement” or “Occupy Central”—is seen by some as more evidence
that the Chinese government intends to transform Hong Kong into a society that follows
Mainland culture and norms.
Other signs that some observers suggest are indicators of the Chinese government’s efforts to
make Hong Kong more like Mainland China are the past attempt to pressure the HKSAR
government to introduce a “moral and national education” curriculum in Hong Kong schools that
critics saw as pro-Beijing propaganda, and recent suggestions that the HKSAR government
76 U.S. Congress, House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific, Hong Kong: A Broken
Promise?, 113th Cong., 2nd sess., December 2, 2014.
77 U.S. Congress, Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs,
“Evaluating the Impact of the ‘Umbrella Movement,’” 113th Cong., 2nd sess., December 3, 2014.
78 Congressional-Executive Commission on China, The Future of Democracy in Hong Kong, November 20, 2014,
http://www.cecc.gov/events/hearings/the-future-of-democracy-in-hong-kong.
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introduce Mainland sedition laws for adoption by Legco. Critics also note that the Liaison Office
of the Central People’s Government in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (Liaison
Office) has commented publicly about local political issues in Hong Kong with greater frequency.
The possible “Mainlandization” of Hong Kong may be attributable not only to the direct or
indirect actions of the Chinese and HKSAR government, according to some observers. Hong
Kong’s economy has become increasingly reliant on the Mainland economy, and a growing
number of businesses in Hong Kong are owned by or are subsidiaries of Mainland companies. In
addition, Hong Kong’s retail sector is increasingly geared to serving the demand of the over 50
million Mainland visitors, and the thousands of new Mainland immigrants to Hong Kong each
year. The Hong Kong press routinely contains accounts of conflict between Mainland tourists and
immigrants and local Hong Kong residents over cultural and behavioral differences. Some Hong
Kong residents have expressed fear that their city is being taken over by Mainland companies and
immigrants.
It is too early to determine in which direction the impact of political interaction will be greater in
the long run. At present, observers appear to be more concerned about the “Mainlandization” of
Hong Kong than optimistic about Hong Kong’s traditions of respect for human rights, the rule of
law, and the aspirations for democracy spreading into Mainland China. The outcome of the
current debate over CE election reforms is likely to be a significant factor in future assessments of
the flow of political influence across the Hong Kong/Mainland border.
Implications for Taiwan
The “one country, two systems” model was originally intended to apply to the possible
reunification of Mainland China and Taiwan—not Hong Kong. When China and the United
Kingdom began negotiating the Joint Declaration in 1984, the Chinese government applied the
concept for use in Hong Kong. At the time, Chinese officials apparently hoped that if they could
successfully demonstrate that “one country, two systems” worked in Hong Kong, they could
persuade the Taiwanese government and people that it was a viable model for Mainland-Taiwan
unification.
According to some observers, the events of 2014 in Hong Kong have undermined support in
Taiwan for closer relations between Mainland China and Taiwan.79 Some analysts maintain that
disenchantment with China’s handling of events in Hong Kong may have contributed to the poor
showing of Taiwan’s Kuomintang (KMT) party in local elections held in November 2014, but
others point to local economic problems as the main cause of the KMT’s election losses. In
addition, Hong Kong’s Umbrella Movement has established ties with Taiwan’s Sunflower
Movement, during which young activists occupied Taiwan’s parliament building to protest the
KMT’s allegedly rushed review of a trade deal with Mainland China.80
The success or failure of Hong Kong to adopt CE election reforms may resonate in Taiwan. Hong
Kong’s movement to a system whereby the election of its Chief Executive by universal suffrage
79 For example, see Kerry Brown, “How Hong Kong’s Protests Swayed Taiwan’s Elections,” The Diplomat, December
1, 2014; or Barclay Bram Shoemaker, “Hong Kong: Taiwan’s Broken Mirror,” The Diplomat, December 11, 2014.
80 For more about the Sunflower Movement, see J. Michael Cole, “Was Taiwan’s Sunflower Movement Successful?,”
The Diplomat, July 1, 2014.
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allows Hong Kong residents to choose between candidates of differing political views would
likely be well-received in Taiwan. However, failure to adopt universal suffrage in Hong Kong
may swing more Taiwanese voters towards opposition to closer ties with Mainland China, and
possible greater support for Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
Issues for the 114th Congress
The level of congressional interest in Hong Kong’s possible CE election reforms may depend on
what transpires as the reform process moves through the third and fourth step of the proscribed
six-step procedure. In addition, the HKSAR government’s treatment of alleged protest organizers
may also influence congressional interest in Hong Kong, and the 114th Congress’s potential to
take action. Legislation has been introduced to amend or alter current U.S. policy toward Hong
Kong. Congress may also examine U.S. support for democratization in Hong Kong.
Legislation
On February 27, 2015, Representative Christopher Smith introduced the Hong Kong Human
Rights and Democracy Act (H.R. 1159). The act reaffirms U.S. interest in “the continued vitality,
prosperity, and stability of Hong Kong,” and “support for democratization” as “a fundamental
principle of United States foreign policy.” It also states that it is U.S. policy “to support the
establishment by 2017 of a genuine democratic option to freely and fairly nominate and elect the
Chief Executive of Hong Kong.…”
Section 4 of the act would reinstate the State Department’s annual report to Congress as provided
for in Section 301 of the United States-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 (22 U.S.C. 5731) for 10
years or “until such earlier date that the Secretary of State certifies that Hong Kong has held free
and fair elections for two consecutive Chief Executive and two consecutive Legislative Council
periods.”
Section 5 of the act would amend the United States-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 by adding
Section 202a, which would require the Secretary of State to certify to Congress not later than 90
after enactment and annually thereafter “whether Hong Kong is sufficiently autonomous to justify
separate treatment different from that accorded the People’s Republic of China in any new laws,
agreements, treaties, or arrangements entered into between the United States and Hong Kong
after the date of the enactment of such Act.” The section also provides for the Secretary of State
to waive the certification requirement if the Secretary determines that such a waiver is in the
national interest of the United States.
The provisions of H.R. 1159 are very similar to the amended version of S. 2922 approved by the
Senate Foreign Relations Committee during the 113th Congress. No legislation regarding Hong
Kong has been introduced in the Senate during the 114th Congress.
Promoting Democratization in Hong Kong
For many years, Congress has appropriated funds through various programs to promote
democracy around the world, including China and Hong Kong. These programs are administered
by the State Department’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor (DRL), the U.S.
Agency for International Development (USAID), and the National Endowment for Democracy
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(NED). The Consolidated and Further Continuing Appropriations Act, 2015 (P.L. 113-235)
provided for the continuation of funding for these programs. In the Congressional Budget
Justification for Fiscal Year 2015, NED stated, “The Endowment will maintain its focus on the
four priority countries in Asia—Pakistan, Burma, North Korea, and China (including Tibet,
Xinjiang, and Hong Kong).”81
Past U.S. programs in Hong Kong have focused on providing technical assistance on membership
recruitment, voter and media communications, and fundraising to Hong Kong’s political parties
and political groups. NED and the National Democratic Institute (NDI) are currently providing
assistance to the Design Democracy Hong Kong project, a web-based forum
(http://designdemocracy.hk/) where Hong Kong residents can create different models for the
selection of the Chief Executive and Legco by universal suffrage. As of January 27, 2015, 716 CE
election models have been created and 15 Legco models. In April 2014, NED hosted ex-CS
Anson Chan and Martin Lee, who gave a talk in Washington, DC, on democracy in Hong Kong.
Some Mainland and Hong Kong publications have published allegations that the United States
and other foreign sources were funding and advising the pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong.
CE Leung has on several occasions claimed that he has evidence to prove foreign support of the
Umbrella Movement, but to date he has not publicly released the alleged evidence. As a result,
some pro-democracy organizations and individuals in Hong Kong are apprehensive about contact
and/or association with Congress, the U.S. government, and other foreign governments and
diplomats.
Access to China and Hong Kong
Since the beginning of the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, the Chinese and HKSAR
governments have periodically restricted the movement of Hong Kong residents and people from
other countries allegedly associated with the protest movement. Several Legco members and
students involved in HKFS or Scholarism have been denied entry into Mainland China even
though they possessed the necessary official documents. At least one Hong Kong resident was not
allowed to board his original return flight to Hong Kong from Taiwan reportedly because of his
alleged involvement in the Umbrella Movement.82
On December 2, 2014, members of the British Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Select Committee
were informed by Chinese government officials that they could not travel to Hong Kong to
investigate the political situation in Hong Kong.83 The committee’s chairman, Richard Ottaway,
was reportedly told by China’s deputy ambassador to Britain Ni Jian that the refusal of entry was
related to the Occupy movement.84 The denial was unusual as the decision was made by the
Chinese government and not the HKSAR government, which under the Basic Law has autonomy
with respect to immigration policy and procedures.
81 Department of State, Congressional Budget Justification, Appendix 1: Department of State Operations, April 7,
2014.
82 “Democracy Activists Worry Hong Kong Government Is Keeping a Travel ‘Blacklist,’” Wall Street Journal, January
5, 2015.
83 Stuart Lau, “British MPs Postpone Hong Kong Trip after Beijing Denies Entry over Occupy Fears,” December 2,
2014.
84 L Gordon Crovitz, “China ‘Voids’ Hong Kong Rights,” Wall Street Journal, op-ed, December 14, 2014.
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Appendix A. Composition of Election Committee
Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Election Ordinance (CEEO) allocates the 300 seats in each of the
four sectors stipulated in Annex I of the Basic Law into 35 subsectors as indicated in the tables
below. Also listed is the number of registered voters—with corporate and individual voters in
separate columns—for each subsector in the 2011 Election Committee elections, according to the
Hong Kong’s Electoral Affairs Commission.85
Table A-1. Industrial, Commercial and Financial Sectors
Subsector
Seats
Corporate Voters
Individual Voters
Catering
17
728
7,206
Commercial (first)
18
860
0
Commercial (second)
18
662
1,121
Employers’ Federation of Hong Kong
16
122
0
Finance
18
125
0
Financial Services
18
568
0
Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Association
16
306
15
Hotel
17
101
0
Import and Export
18
806
628
Industrial (first)
18
610
0
Industrial (second)
18
695
0
Insurance 18
135
0
Real Estate and Construction
18
482
272
Textiles and Garment
18
3,055
133
Tourism
18
1,118
0
Transport
18
201
0
Wholesale and Retail
18
1,795
5,084
Table A-2. The Professions
Subsector
Seats
Corporate Voters
Individual Voters
Accountancy
30
0
24,630
Architectural, Surveying and Planning
30
0
6,778
Chinese Medicine
30
0
5,864
Education
30
0
86,618
Engineering
30
0
9,052
Health Services
30
0
39,128
85 See http://www.eac.gov.hk/pdf/chief/en/2012_CE_Report/2012ce_appendix_II.pdf.
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Subsector
Seats
Corporate Voters
Individual Voters
Higher Education
30
0
9,106
Information Technology
30
0
5,175
Legal
30
0
6,583
Medical
30
0
11,118
Table A-3. Labor, Social Services, Religious and Other Sectors
Subsector
Seats
Corporate Voters
Individual Voters
Agriculture and Fisheries
60
159
0
Labor 60
626
0
Religious
60
not applicablea
Social Welfare
60
277
14,152
Sports, Performing Arts, Culture and
Publication
60 2,149
209
a. The 60 religious subsector seats are allocated by the Chief Executive among the following religious
organizations: Catholic Diocese of Hong Kong; Chinese Muslim Cultural and Fraternal Association; Hong
Kong Christian Council; the Hong Kong Taoist Association; the Confucian Academy; and the Hong Kong
Buddhist Association. Each organization appoints their members to the Election Committee.
Table A-4. Members of the Legislative Council, Representatives of District-based
Organizations, Hong Kong Deputies to the National People’s Congress, and Hong
Kong Members of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political
Consultative Conference
Subsector
Seats
Corporate Voters
Individual Voters
National People’s Congress (NPC)
36
not applicablea
Legislative Council (Legco)
70
not applicableb
Chinese People’s Political Consultative
Conference (CPPCC)
51 0
151
Heung Yee Kukc 26
0
147
Hong Kong and Kowloon District Councils
57
0
200
New Territories District Councils
60
0
212
a. NPC deputies automatically are members of the Election Committee.
b. Legco members automatically are members of the Election Committee.
c. Heung Yee Kuk (Rural Council) is a statutory body established to represent the interest of the indigenous
people of Hong Kong’s New Territories.
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Appendix B. Legislative Council Members:
Pro-establishment and Pan-democrat Factions
The 70 members of Hong Kong’s Legislative Council are frequently divided into two factions—
the pro-establishment members and the pan-democrats. The table below provides a list of the
current Legco members and their party affiliation, divided into pro-establishment and pan-
democrat members.
Table B-1. Legco Members by Factions
Current Legco members divided into pro-establishment and pan-democrats (with party affiliations)
Pro-Establishment Members (43)
Pan-Democratic Members (27)
Chan Hak-kan (DAB)
Albert Chan Wai-yip (People’s Power)
Chan Han-pan (DAB)
Chan Chi-chuen (People’s Power)
Chan Kam-lam (DAB)
Kenneth Chan Ka-lok (Civic Party)
Chan Kin-por (Independent)
Fernando Cheung Chiu-hung (Labour)
Chan Yuen-han (FTU)
Cheung Kwok-che (Labour)
Christopher Cheung Wah-fung (Independent)
Gary Fan Kwok-wai (Neo Democrats)
Tommy Cheung Yu-yan(Liberal Party)
Frederick Fung Kin-kee (ADPL)
Chiang Lai-wan (DAB)
Albert Ho Chu-yan (Democratic Party)
Christopher Chung Chu-kun (DAB)
Cyd Ho Sau-lan (Labour Party)
Chung Kwok-pan (Liberal)
Ip Kin-yuen (Independent)
Vincent Fang Kang (Liberal Party)
Dennis Kwok Wing-hang (Civic Party)
Steven Ho Chun-yin (DAB)
Kwok Ka-ki (Civic Party)
Ip Kwok-him (DAB)
Emily Lau Wai-hing (Democratic Party)
Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee (New People’s Party)
Lee Cheuk-yan (CTU)
Kwok Wai-keung (FTU)
Joseph Lee Kwok-long (Independent)
Jeffrey Lam Kin-fung (Economic Synergy)
Alan Leong Kah-kit (Civic Party)
Lam Tai-fai (Independent)
Leung Ka-lau (Independent)
Lau Wong-fat (Economic Synergy)
Kenneth Leung Kai-cheong (Professional Commons)
Starry Lee Wai-king (DAB)
Leung Kwok-hung (League of Social Democrats)
Andrew Leung Kwan-yuen (Economic Synergy)
Claudia Mo Man-ching (Civic Party)
Leung Che-cheung (DAB)
Charles Peter Mok (Professional Commons)
Priscilla Leung Mei-fun (Professional Forum)
Sin Chung-kai (Democratic Party)
Leung Yiu-chung (NWSC)
James To Kun-sun (Democratic Party)
Lo Wai-kwok (Independent)
Ronny Tong Ka-wah (Civic Party)
Martin Liao Cheung-kong (Independent)
Helena Wong Pik-wan (Democratic Party)
Ma Fung-kwok (New Forum)
Wong Yuk-man (People’s Power)
Alice Mak Mei-kuen (FTU)
Wu Chi-wai (Democratic Party)
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Pro-Establishment Members (43)
Pan-Democratic Members (27)
Ng Leung-sing (Independent)
Poon Siu-ping (FLU)
Elizabeth Quat Pui-fan (DAB)
Abraham Shek Lai-him (Professional Forum)
Tam Yiu-chung (DAB)
Tang Ka-piu (FTU)
James Tien Pei-chun (Liberal Party)
Michael Tien Puk-sun (New People’s Party)
Jasper Tsang Yok-sing (DAB)
Paul Tse Wai-chun (Independent)
Tony Tse Wai-chuen (Independent)
Wong Kwok-hing (FTU)
Wong Kwok-kin (FTU)
Wong Ting-kwong (DAB)
Frankie Yick Chi-ming (Liberal Party)
Yiu Si-wing (Independent)
Source: CRS analysis.
Notes: ADPL—Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People’s Livelihood; CTU—Hong Kong
Confederation of Trade Unions; DAB—Democratic Al iance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong;
FLU—Federation of Hong Kong and Kowloon Labour Unions; FTU—Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions;
NWSC—Neighbourhood and Worker’s Service Centre.
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Appendix C. Functional Constituency Members by
Constituency and Electorate
The table below lists the 35 functional constituency members of Hong Kong Legislative Council
by the official name of the functional constituency they represent. In addition, it lists the number
of registered voter eligible to vote in each functional constituency.
Table C-1. Legco Functional Constituency Members
including eligible voters for each constituency
Functional Constituency
Legco Member
Eligible Voters
Accountancy
Kenneth Leung Kai-cheong
25,174
Agriculture and Fisheries
Steven Ho Chun-yin
156
Architectural, Surveying and Planning
Tony Tse Wai-chuen
6,781
Catering
Tommy Cheung Yu-yan
7,729
Commercial (First)
Jeffrey Lam Kin-fung
876
Commercial (Second)
Martin Liao Cheung-kong
1,529
District Council (First)
Ip Kwok-him
410
District Council (Second)
Chan Yuen-han
3,219,755
Frederick Fung Kin-kee
Albert Ho Chun-yan
Starry Lee Wai-king
James To Kun-sun
Education Ip
Kin-yuen
92,957
Engineering Lo
Wai-kwok
9,172
Finance Ng
Leung-sing
106
Financial Services
Christopher Cheung Wah-fung
564
Health Services
Joseph Lee Kok-long
37,556
Heung Yee Kuk
Lau Wong-fat
147
Import & Export
Wong Ting-kwong
1,363
Industrial (First)
Andrew Leung Kwan-yuen
562
Industrial (Second)
Lam Tai-fai
772
Information Technology
Charles Peter Mok
6,687
Insurance Chan
Kin-por
120
Labour Kwok
Wai-keung
608
Poon Siu-ping
Tang Ka-piu
Legal
Dennis Kwok Wing-hang
6,482
Medical Leung
Ka-lau
10,888
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Functional Constituency
Legco Member
Eligible Voters
Real Estate and Construction
Abraham Shek Lai-him
738
Social Welfare
Cheung Kwok-che
14,093
Sports, Performing Arts, Culture, and Publication
Ma Fung-kwok
2,395
Textiles and Garments
Chung Kowk-pan
2,844
Tourism Yiu
Si-wing
1,230
Transport
Frankie Yick Chi-ming
200
Wholesale and Retail
Vincent Fang Kang
7,040
Source: Handout from the Legislative Council.
Author Contact Information
Michael F. Martin
Specialist in Asian Affairs
mfmartin@crs.loc.gov, 7-2199
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