Social Security: Cost-of-Living Adjustments
Gary Sidor
Information Research Specialist
October 29, 2014
Congressional Research Service
7-5700
www.crs.gov
94-803
Social Security: Cost-of-Living Adjustments
Summary
To compensate for the effects of inflation, Social Security recipients usually receive an annual
cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). Benefits will be increased by 1.7% in 2015, following an
increase of 1.5% in 2014.
Social Security COLAs are based on changes in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage
Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), updated monthly by the Department of Labor’s Bureau of
Labor Statistics (BLS). The COLA equals the growth, if any, in the index from the highest third
calendar quarter average CPI-W recorded (most often, from the previous year) to the average
CPI-W for the third calendar quarter of the current year. The COLA becomes effective in
December of the current year and is payable in January of the following year. (Social Security
payments always reflect the benefits due for the preceding month.)
If there is no percentage increase in the CPI-W between the measuring periods, no COLA is
payable. No COLA was payable in January 2010 because the average CPI-W for the third quarter
of 2009 did not increase from the average CPI-W for the third quarter of 2008, and again in 2011
because the average CPI-W for the third quarter of 2010 remained below the average CPI-W for
the third quarter of 2008. When the average CPI-W for the third quarter of 2011 exceeded that for
2008, establishing a new benchmark, a COLA was payable in 2012. Because the average CPI-W
for the third quarters of 2012 and 2013 exceeded the average CPI-W for the third quarters of each
respective preceding year, 2014 will be the third consecutive year in which a COLA will be paid.
Because a COLA of 1.7% will be paid to Social Security beneficiaries in 2015, identical
percentage increases in Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and railroad retirement “tier 1”
benefits will be paid, and other changes in the Social Security program will be triggered.
Although COLAs under the federal Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS) and the federal
military retirement program are not triggered directly by the Social Security COLA, these
programs use the same measuring period and formula for computing their COLAs. As a result,
their recipients similarly will receive a 1.7% COLA in January 2015.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the trustees for the Social Security trust funds both
project annual COLAs beyond 2015.
This report is updated annually.
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Social Security: Cost-of-Living Adjustments
Contents
How the Social Security COLA Is Determined ............................................................................... 1
The January 2015 COLA ................................................................................................................. 1
Scenario In Which No COLA Is Payable ........................................................................................ 2
What Is Affected Besides Social Security Benefits? ....................................................................... 3
Tables
Table 1. Computation of the Social Security COLA, January 2015 ................................................ 1
Table 2. Average CPI-W for the Third Quarter, 2007-2014 ............................................................. 3
Table 3. History of Social Security Benefit Increases ..................................................................... 5
Contacts
Author Contact Information............................................................................................................. 6
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Social Security: Cost-of-Living Adjustments
How the Social Security COLA Is Determined
An automatic annual Social Security benefit increase is intended to reflect the rise in the cost of
living over a one-year period. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical
Workers (CPI-W), updated monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the measure that
can trigger a benefit increase.1 The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is based on
the growth in the index from the highest third calendar quarter average CPI-W recorded (most
often, from the previous year) to the average CPI-W for the third calendar quarter of the current
year. If the CPI-W triggers a COLA, the COLA becomes effective in December of the current
year and is payable in January of the following year. (Social Security payments always reflect the
benefits due for the preceding month.) A COLA trigger mechanism was first adopted in P.L. 92-
603, the Social Security Amendments of 1972, and triggered COLAs were first payable in 1975.
Prior to 1975, COLAs were approved sporadically by Congress through the adoption of
legislation.2
The January 2015 COLA
On October 22, 2014, BLS announced the CPI-W figure for September 2014, the final month of
the third quarter measuring period, allowing the Social Security Administration (SSA) to
announce that a 1.7% Social Security COLA will be effective in January 2015. The release of the
September 2014 index amount made possible the comparison of the two July-September sets of
CPI-W data needed to compute the COLA (one for 2013 and another for 2014). Table 1 shows
how the January 2015 COLA is computed under procedures set forth in Section 215(i) of the
Social Security Act.
Table 1. Computation of the Social Security COLA, January 2015
CPI-W Index Points
July 2013
230.084
August 2013
230.359
September 2013
230.537
Average for Third Quarter of 2013 (rounded to the nearest one-thousandth of a point):
230.327
July 2014
234.525
August 2014
234.030
September 2014
234.170
Average for Third Quarter of 2014 (rounded to the nearest one-thousandth of a point):
234.242
1 For more information on the use of the CPI-W and the consideration of using an alternate inflation index, see CRS
Report R43363, Alternative Inflation Measures for the Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA), by Noah P.
Meyerson.
2 The COLA is based on price growth to retain the purchasing power of monthly benefits over time for current
beneficiaries. The initial computation of the base benefit amount for new beneficiaries uses a formula that is linked to
overall wage growth. For more information, see CRS Report R42035, Social Security Primer, by Dawn Nuschler.
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Social Security: Cost-of-Living Adjustments
CPI-W Index Points
Percentage increase or decrease from the third quarter average for 2013 to the third
234.242 – 230.327 = 3.915
quarter average for 2014 (rounded to the nearest one-tenth of 1% for the final
3.915 / 230.327 = 0.0170
application, when positive, as required by law):
1.7%
Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (zero if the percentage change is negative):
1.7%
Source: BLS data series for the CPI-W for 2013 and 2014.
Note: The reference base period for the CPI-W is 1982-1984 (i.e., the period when the index equaled 100).
Scenario In Which No COLA Is Payable
The Social Security Act specifies that a COLA is payable automatically if the average CPI-W for
the third quarter of the current year is higher than the highest average CPI-W for the third quarter
of past years, which is called the “cost-of-living computation quarter.” From 1975, when this
provision became effective, to 2008, a new cost-of-living computation quarter was established in
each subsequent year, which triggered the payment of a COLA each year.
If the average CPI-W for the third quarter of the current year is equal to or less than the average
CPI-W for the cost-of-living computation quarter, no COLA is payable. For example, the average
CPI-W for the third quarter of 2009 was less than the average CPI-W for the third quarter of 2008
(211.001 and 215.495, respectively). As a result, an automatic COLA in January 2010 was not
triggered and the third quarter of 2008 remained the cost-of-living computation quarter (i.e., the
benchmark) used to determine if a COLA would be payable in January 2011.3 Though the average
CPI-W for the third quarter of 2010 (214.136) was greater than the average CPI-W for the third
quarter of 2009, it did not exceed the average CPI-W for the third quarter of 2008. The third
quarter of 2008 remained the cost-of-living computation quarter for at least one more year and a
COLA was not payable in January 2011.
When the average CPI-W for the third quarter of 2011 (223.233) exceeded that for 2008, a 2012
COLA was triggered and the third quarter of 2011 became the cost-of-living computation quarter.
New cost-of-living computation quarters were subsequently established in each year from 2012 to
2014, when the average CPI-W for the third quarter of 2012, 2013, and 2014 exceeded that for
the third quarter of each preceding year. The index for the 2014 measuring period will be used as
the benchmark for comparison in 2015 for a possible COLA in January 2016.4 See Table 2 for a
recent history of average CPI-W performance for the third calendar quarter, and how that has
affected changes to the cost-of-living computation quarter and the triggering of COLA payments
in some years.
3 Section 215(i) of the Social Security Act specifies that no COLA is payable in subsequent years until the average
CPI-W for the third quarter of the current year is greater than that for the last cost-of-living computation quarter.
4 The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the trustees for the Social Security trust funds both project continued
annual COLAs beyond 2014. For more information, see CBO, “Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance –
Baseline Projections,” April 2014, at http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43889-2014-04-
Social_Security.pdf p. 2, and Social Security Administration (SSA), The 2014 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees
of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and the Disability Insurance Trust Funds, section on program specific
assumptions and methods, July 2014, at http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2014/V_C_prog.html#1047210, Table V.C1.
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Social Security: Cost-of-Living Adjustments
Table 2. Average CPI-W for the Third Quarter, 2007-2014
(cost-of-living computation quarters and potential COLAs)
New Cost-of-Living
Average CPI-W for the
Computation Quarter
Year
Third Quarter
Established Resulting
COLA
2007 203.596
yes
2.3%
2008 215.495
yes
5.8%
2009
211.001
no (215.495 of 2008 retained)
no COLA
2010
214.136
no (215.495 of 2008 retained)
no COLA
2011 223.233
yes
3.6%
2012 226.936
yes
1.7%
2013 230.327
yes
1.5%
2014 234.242
yes
1.7%
Source: Created by CRS using data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Social Security benefit amounts cannot be reduced if the CPI-W decreases between the
measuring periods. If the performance of the CPI-W does not trigger a COLA, benefits remain
the same (prior to deductions for Medicare Part B and Part D premiums). Most beneficiaries are
also protected from a net reduction in Social Security cash benefits that would be attributed to a
scheduled Medicare Part B premium increase, if there is no COLA payable or if the Medicare
Part B premium increase would exceed the dollar value of an applied COLA. However,
regardless of the triggering of a COLA, beneficiaries could see a decrease in their net payment
amount from year to year as a result of changes in their Medicare Part D selections and the
associated premiums.5
What Is Affected Besides Social Security Benefits?
Social Security COLAs trigger increases in other programs. Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
benefits and railroad retirement “tier 1” benefits (equivalent to a Social Security benefit) are
increased by the same percentage as the Social Security COLA. Railroad retirement “tier 2”
benefits (equivalent to a private pension) are increased by an amount equivalent to 32.5% of the
Social Security COLA. Veterans’ pension benefits most often are increased in the same amount as
Social Security, but legislation must be passed annually for this purpose.6
Although COLAs under the Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS) and the federal military
retirement system are not triggered by the Social Security COLA, these programs use the same
measuring period and formula for determining their COLAs. As a result, their recipients will also
5 For more information on the impact of Medicare premiums on Social Security benefits, see CRS Report R40082,
Medicare: Part B Premiums, by Patricia A. Davis.
6 On September 26, 2014, P.L. 113-81, the Veterans’ Compensation Cost of Living Adjustment Act of 2014 (S. 2258),
was enacted to provide recipients of veterans’ pensions with the same percentage COLA as that for Social Security
beneficiaries. Beginning with December 2014 payments, veterans will also receive the 1.7% benefit increase that Social
Security beneficiaries will receive.
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Social Security: Cost-of-Living Adjustments
receive a 1.7% COLA in January 2015, as will recipients of Federal Employees’ Retirement
System (FERS) benefits.7
When a COLA is payable, other Social Security program elements are affected. For example, the
taxable earnings base, the retirement earnings test (RET) exempt amounts, and the substantial
gainful activity (SGA) earnings level for the blind (Social Security disability beneficiaries) can be
increased only when a COLA is payable. Though changes to those three elements are based on
growth in national average wages (rather than changes in prices), they do not increase if no
COLA is payable, even if average wages grow. If a COLA is payable, then these amounts
increase by the percentage that the national average wage index has increased.8 The taxable
earnings base, the RET exempt amounts, and the SGA for the blind were frozen in 2010 and 2011
when no COLA was payable, but they did increase each year since 2012 and will increase again
in 2015.9
Changes in other Social Security elements are tied to the increase in national average wages, yet
may be altered even if a COLA is not payable. These elements include the amount of earnings
needed for a Social Security “quarter-of-coverage,” the monthly substantial gainful activity
amounts for non-blind Social Security disability beneficiaries, and the annual coverage thresholds
for domestic workers and election workers.
Table 3 shows the history of increases in Social Security benefits.
7 In FERS, the COLA equals the Social Security COLA if inflation is 2% or less, but is lower than the Social Security
COLA otherwise. For more information on the adjustment of federal program benefits for inflation, see CRS Report
R42000, Inflation-Indexing Elements in Federal Entitlement Programs, coordinated by Dawn Nuschler.
8 Sections 230(a), 203(f)(8), and 223(d)(4)(A) respectively, of the Social Security Act.
9 For more information on the interactions between the taxable earnings base, the RET exempt amounts, the SGA
limits, and other program elements with the COLA, see SSA, October 2014, “Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA)
Information for 2015” at http://www.socialsecurity.gov/cola/.
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Social Security: Cost-of-Living Adjustments
Table 3. History of Social Security Benefit Increases
Amount of Increase
Date Increase Was Paid
(shown as a percentage)
January 2015
1.7%
January 2014
1.5
January 2013
1.7
January 2012
3.6
January 2011
0.0
January 2010
0.0
January 2009
5.8
January 2008
2.3
January 2007
3.3
January 2006
4.1
January 2005
2.7
January 2004
2.1
January 2003
1.4
January 2002
2.6
January 2001
3.5
January 2000
2.5a
January 1999
1.3
January 1998
2.1
January 1997
2.9
January 1996
2.6
January 1995
2.8
January 1994
2.6
January 1993
3.0
January 1992
3.7
January 1991
5.4
January 1990
4.7
January 1989
4.0
January 1988
4.2
January 1987
1.3
January 1986
3.1
January 1985
3.5
January 1984
3.5
July 1982
7.4
July 1981
11.2
July 1980
14.3
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Social Security: Cost-of-Living Adjustments
Amount of Increase
Date Increase Was Paid
(shown as a percentage)
July 1979
9.9
July 1978
6.5
July 1977
5.9
July 1976
6.4
July 1975b 8.0
April/July 1974c 11.0
October 1972
20.0
February 1971
10.0
February 1970
15.0
March 1968
13.0
February 1965
7.0
February 1959
7.0
October 1954
13.0
October 1952
12.5
October 1950
77.0
Source: Social Security Administration, “Historical Background and Development of Social Security,”
http://www.socialsecurity.gov/history/briefhistory3.html#colas, for data prior to 1975; “Social Security Cost-Of-
Living Adjustments,” http://www.socialsecurity.gov/oact/COLA/colaseries.html, for data since 1975.
a. Original y computed as 2.4%, the COLA payable in January 2000 was corrected to 2.5% under P.L. 106-554.
b. Automatic COLAs began.
c. Increase came in two steps.
Author Contact Information
Gary Sidor
Information Research Specialist
gsidor@crs.loc.gov, 7-2588
Congressional Research Service
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