Social Security: The Trust Fund Dawn Nuschler Specialist in Income Security Gary Sidor Information Research Specialist July 31, 2014 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RL33028 Social Security: The Trust Fund Summary The Social Security program pays benefits to retired or disabled workers and their family members, and to family members of deceased workers. (A person may receive retired-worker benefits and continue to participate in the labor force.) Program income and outgo are accounted for in two separate trust funds authorized under Title II of the Social Security Act: the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund and the Federal Disability Insurance (DI) trust fund. This report refers to the two trust funds as an aggregate Social Security trust fund and discusses the operations of the OASI and DI trust funds on a combined basis. Social Security is financed by payroll taxes paid by covered workers and their employers, federal income taxes paid by some beneficiaries on a portion of their benefits, and interest income from the Social Security trust fund investments. Social Security tax revenues are invested in federal government securities (special issues) held by the trust fund, and these federal government securities earn interest. The tax revenues exchanged for the federal government securities are deposited into the general fund of the U.S. Treasury and are indistinguishable from revenues in the general fund that come from other sources. Because the assets held by the trust fund are federal government securities, the trust fund balance represents the amount of money owed to the Social Security trust fund by the general fund of the U.S. Treasury. Funds needed to pay Social Security benefits and administrative expenses come from the redemption or sale of federal government securities held by the trust fund. The Social Security trust fund represents funds dedicated to pay current and future Social Security benefits. However, it is useful to view the trust fund in two ways: (1) as an internal federal accounting concept and (2) as the accumulated holdings of the Social Security program. For internal accounting purposes, certain accounts within the U.S. Treasury are designated by law as trust funds to track revenues (and expenditures) dedicated for specific purposes. There are a number of trust funds in the U.S. Treasury, including those for Social Security, Medicare, unemployment compensation, and federal employee retirement. By law, Social Security tax revenues must be invested in U.S. government obligations (debt instruments of the U.S. government). The accumulated holdings of U.S. government obligations are often viewed as being similar to assets held by any other trust on behalf of the beneficiaries. However, the holdings of the Social Security trust fund differ from those of private trusts because (1) the types of investments the trust fund may hold are limited and (2) the U.S. government is both the buyer and seller of the investments. This report covers how the Social Security program is financed and how the Social Security trust fund works. It will be updated annually to reflect current projections of the financial status of the Social Security trust fund. Congressional Research Service Social Security: The Trust Fund Contents Introduction...................................................................................................................................... 1 How the Social Security Program Is Financed ................................................................................ 1 The Social Security Trust Fund as a Designated Account ............................................................... 2 Social Security Trust Fund Revenues ........................................................................................ 3 Social Security Trust Fund Costs............................................................................................... 3 Social Security Trust Fund Operations ...................................................................................... 3 Investment of the Social Security Trust Fund ......................................................................... 10 The Social Security Trust Fund and the Federal Budget ......................................................... 10 On-Budget Versus Off-Budget ................................................................................................ 11 The Social Security Trust Fund as Accumulated Holdings ........................................................... 11 The Social Security Trust Fund and the Level of Federal Debt............................................... 15 The Social Security Trust Fund and Benefit Payments ........................................................... 15 Figures Figure 1. Ratio of Current Non-Interest Income to Costs for the Social Security Trust Fund, 1957-2032 ........................................................................................................................... 9 Tables Table 1. Operations of the Social Security Trust Fund, Historical Period 1957-2013 ..................... 5 Table 2. Projected Operations of the Social Security Trust Fund, 2014-2032 ................................. 7 Table 3. Accumulated Holdings of the Social Security Trust Fund, Historical Period 1957-2013 ................................................................................................................................... 13 Table 4. Projected Accumulated Holdings of the Social Security Trust Fund, 2014-2032 ............ 14 Contacts Author Contact Information........................................................................................................... 16 Acknowledgments ......................................................................................................................... 16 Congressional Research Service Social Security: The Trust Fund Introduction The Social Security program pays benefits to retired or disabled workers and their family members, and to the family members of deceased workers.1 As of June 2014, there were 58.6 million Social Security beneficiaries. Approximately 66% of those beneficiaries were retired workers and 15% were disabled workers. The remaining beneficiaries were survivors, or the spouses and children of retired or disabled workers.2 Social Security is financed by payroll taxes paid by covered workers and their employers, federal income taxes paid by some beneficiaries on a portion of their benefits, and interest income from the Social Security trust fund investments. Social Security tax revenues are invested in federal government securities (special issues) held by the trust fund, and these federal government securities earn interest. The tax revenues exchanged for the federal government securities are deposited into the general fund of the U.S. Treasury and are indistinguishable from revenues in the general fund that come from other sources. Because the assets held by the trust fund are federal government securities, the trust fund balance represents the amount of money owed to the Social Security trust fund by the general fund of the Treasury. Funds needed to pay Social Security benefits and administrative expenses come from the redemption or sale of federal government securities held by the trust fund.3 The Secretary of the Treasury (as the Managing Trustee of the Social Security trust fund) is required by law to invest Social Security revenues in securities backed by the U.S. government.4 The purchase of government securities allows any surplus Social Security revenues to be used for other (non-Social Security) government spending needs at the time.5 The Social Security trust fund is both a designated account within the Treasury and the accumulated holdings of special U.S. government obligations. Both represent the funds designated to pay current and future Social Security benefits. How the Social Security Program Is Financed The Social Security program is financed primarily by revenues from Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA) taxes and Self Employment Contributions Act (SECA) taxes. FICA taxes are paid by both employers and employees, but it is employers who remit the taxes to the Treasury. Employers remit FICA taxes on a regular basis throughout the year (for example, weekly, monthly, quarterly or annually), depending on the employer’s level of total employment 1 A person may receive retired-worker benefits and continue to have earnings from work. If a person is below the full retirement age and earnings are above a specified amount, benefits are withheld in part or in full under the Retirement Earnings Test. For more information, see Social Security Administration (SSA), Social Security: How Work Affects Your Benefits, Publication No. 05-10069, January 2014, at http://www.socialsecurity.gov/pubs/EN-05-10069.pdf. 2 SSA, Monthly Statistical Snapshot, June 2014, Table 2. The latest edition of the Monthly Statistical Snapshot is available at http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat_snapshot/index.html. 3 Social Security Administration, Trust Fund FAQs, http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/ProgData/fundFAQ.html. 4 Social Security Act, Title II, §201(d). For more information, see Social Security Administration, Office of the Chief Actuary, Actuarial Note Number 142, Social Security Trust Fund Investment Policies and Practices, by Jeffrey L. Kunkel, January 1999, at http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/n1990s.html. 5 This is often referred to as “borrowing from the Social Security trust fund.” Congressional Research Service 1 Social Security: The Trust Fund taxes (including FICA and federal personal income tax withholding). The FICA tax rate of 7.65% each for employers and employees has two components: 6.2% for Social Security and 1.45% for Medicare Hospital Insurance. The SECA tax rate is 15.3% for self-employed individuals, with 12.4% for Social Security and 2.9% for Medicare Hospital Insurance. The respective Social Security contribution rates are levied on covered wages/net self-employment income up to $117,000 in 2014.6 Self-employed individuals may deduct one-half of the SECA taxes for federal income tax purposes.7 SECA taxes are normally paid once a year as part of filing an annual individual income tax return. In 2013, Social Security payroll taxes totaled $726.2 billion and accounted for 84.9% of the program’s total income. In addition to payroll taxes, the Social Security program receives income from other sources. First, certain Social Security beneficiaries must include a portion of their Social Security benefits in taxable income for the federal income tax, and the Social Security program receives a portion of those taxes.8 In 2013, revenue from the taxation of benefits totaled $21.1 billion and accounted for 2.5% of the program’s total income. Second, the program receives reimbursements from the general fund of the Treasury for a variety of purposes.9 In 2013, general fund reimbursements totaled $4.9 billion and accounted for 0.6% of the program’s total income. Finally, the Social Security program receives interest income from the Treasury on its investments in special federal government obligations. In 2013, interest income totaled $102.8 billion and accounted for 12.0% of the program’s total income. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) processes the tax returns and tax payments for federal employment taxes and federal individual income taxes. All of the tax payments are deposited in the Treasury along with all other receipts from the public for the federal government. The Social Security Trust Fund as a Designated Account Within the U.S. Treasury, there are numerous accounts established for internal accounting purposes. Although all of the monies within the Treasury are federal monies, the designation of an 6 The limit on wages and net self-employment income subject to the Social Security payroll tax (the taxable wage base) is adjusted annually based on average wage growth, if a Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is payable. Because no COLA was payable in 2010 and 2011, the taxable wage base remained at its 2009 level ($106,800) in 2010 and 2011. The Medicare Hospital Insurance component of the FICA and SECA tax is levied on total wages. For more information on the COLA, see CRS Report 94-803, Social Security: Cost-of-Living Adjustments, by Gary Sidor. 7 Self-employed individuals are required to pay Social Security payroll taxes if they have annual net earnings of $400 or more. Only 92.35% of net self-employment income (up to the annual limit) is taxable. 8 The taxes associated with including Social Security benefits in federal taxable income go to the Social Security trust fund and the Medicare Hospital Insurance trust fund. See CRS Report RL32552, Social Security: Calculation and History of Taxing Benefits, by Noah P. Meyerson. 9 The Social Security trust funds receive reimbursements from the general fund for (1) the cost of noncontributory wage credits for military service before 1957; (2) the cost in 1971-1982 of deemed wage credits for military service performed after 1956; (3) the cost of benefits to certain uninsured persons who attained the age of 72 before 1968; (4) the cost of payroll tax credits provided to employees in 1984 and self-employed persons in 1984-89 by P.L. 98-21; (5) the cost in 2009-2013 of excluding certain self-employment earnings from SECA taxes under P.L. 110-246; and (6) payroll tax revenue forgone under the provisions of P.L. 111-147, P.L. 111-312, P.L. 112-78, and P.L. 112-96. (Source: Social Security Administration, Office of the Chief Actuary, Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Trust Funds Receipts, http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/STATS/table4a3.html.) Congressional Research Service 2 Social Security: The Trust Fund account as a trust fund allows the government to track revenues (and expenditures) dedicated for specific purposes. In addition, the government can affect the level of revenues and expenditures associated with a trust fund through changes in the law.10 Social Security program income and outgo are accounted for in two separate trust funds authorized under Title II of the Social Security Act: (1) the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund and (2) the Federal Disability Insurance (DI) trust fund.11 This report refers to the two separate trust funds as an aggregate Social Security trust fund and discusses the operations of the OASI and DI trust funds on a combined basis.12 Social Security Trust Fund Revenues The Social Security trust fund receives a credit equal to the Social Security payroll taxes deposited in the Treasury by the IRS.13 The payroll taxes are allocated between the OASI and DI trust funds based on a proportion specified by law.14 Currently, of the 6.2% payroll tax rate, 5.3% is allocated to the OASI trust fund and 0.9% is allocated to the DI trust fund.15 Social Security Trust Fund Costs The Treasury makes Social Security benefit payments to entitled individuals on a monthly basis. The Treasury is directed by the Social Security Administration (SSA) as to whom to pay and the amount of the payment. When benefit payments are made by the Treasury, the Social Security trust fund is debited for the payments. Periodically, the Social Security trust fund is also debited for the administrative costs of the Social Security program. These administrative costs are incurred by several government agencies, including SSA, the Treasury, and the IRS. Social Security Trust Fund Operations The annual revenues to the Social Security trust fund are used to pay current Social Security benefits and administrative expenses. If, in any year, revenues are greater than costs, the surplus Social Security revenues in the Treasury are available for spending by the government on other (non-Social Security) spending needs at the time. If, in any year, costs are greater than revenues, 10 For more information, see CRS Report R41328, Federal Trust Funds and the Budget, by Mindy R. Levit. Social Security Act, Title II, §201. 12 Under current law, the separate OASI and DI trust funds do not have authority to borrow from each other. In the past, however, Congress has authorized temporary interfund borrowing among the OASI, DI and Medicare Hospital Insurance trust funds to deal with funding imbalances. Congress has also reallocated Social Security payroll taxes between the OASI and DI trust funds for the same purpose. Therefore, this CRS report discusses the financial outlook for the OASI and DI trust funds on a combined basis. 13 In addition, a portion of the federal income taxes paid on Social Security benefits, reimbursements from the general fund and the interest income on Social Security trust fund investments are credited to the Social Security trust fund. 14 Social Security Act, Title II, §201(b). 15 The share allocated to the DI trust fund was last changed (to 0.9%) in 2000, under a reallocation schedule established in 1994 under P.L. 103-387. On five occasions, Congress has enacted legislation to change the allocation of FICA/SECA taxes between the OASI and DI trust funds, with no change in the overall payroll tax rate. For more information, see CRS Report R43318, Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund: Background and Solvency Issues, by William R. Morton. 11 Congressional Research Service 3 Social Security: The Trust Fund the cash flow deficit is offset by selling some of the accumulated holdings of the trust fund (government securities) to help pay benefits and administrative expenses. There are two measures of Social Security trust fund operations: the annual cash flow operations and the accumulated holdings (or trust fund balance).16 The annual cash flow operations of the Social Security trust fund are a measure of current revenues and current costs. The cash flow operations are positive when current revenues exceed costs (a cash flow surplus) and negative when current costs exceed revenues (a cash flow deficit). In years with cash flow deficits, the Social Security program (unlike other federal programs that operate without a trust fund) may use the accumulated holdings of the Social Security trust fund from prior years to help pay benefits and administrative expenses.17 Although Social Security is a pay-as-you-go system, meaning that current revenues are used to pay current costs, changes made to the Social Security program in 1983 began a sustained period of annual cash flow surpluses through 2009.18 Since 2010, however, Social Security has had annual cash flow deficits (program costs have exceeded tax revenues). The 2014 annual report of the Social Security Board of Trustees19 projects that annual cash flow deficits will continue throughout the 75-year projection period (2014-2088) under the intermediate assumptions. The 2014 Annual Report projects that the Social Security trust fund will remain solvent until 2033. Social Security benefits scheduled under current law can be paid in full and on time until then. This is the same trust fund exhaustion date projected in the 2012 and 2013 Annual Reports. In addition, the average 75-year actuarial deficit for the trust fund is projected to be equal to 2.88% of taxable payroll. This is an increase of 0.16 percentage point from the projection in the 2013 Annual Report. With respect to the change in the projected 75-year actuarial deficit, the trustees state, The actuarial deficit increased by about 0.06 percent of payroll due to advancing the valuation date by one year and including the year 2088. The remaining increase in the deficit is due primarily to changes in methods, assumptions, and starting values.20 16 The accumulated holdings of the Social Security trust fund in U.S. government obligations are also referred to as the Social Security trust fund balance. 17 Certain government projects may be given “budget authority until expended,” which allows the authority to spend funds on the project to be carried over each year until all of the authority to spend funds has been exhausted. 18 The Social Security Amendments of 1983 (P.L. 98-21) made a number of program changes, including the coverage of federal workers, an increase in the full retirement age and the taxation of Social Security benefits. For more information on the 1983 amendments, see CRS Report RL30920, Social Security: Major Decisions in the House and Senate Since 1935, by Gary Sidor. 19 The Social Security Board of Trustees is composed of three officers of the President’s cabinet (the Secretary of the Treasury, the Secretary of Labor, and the Secretary of Health and Human Services), the Commissioner of Social Security, and two public representatives who are appointed by the President and subject to confirmation by the Senate. The Board of Trustees issues an annual report to Congress on the financial status of the Social Security trust fund. The trustees make three sets of projections based on low-cost, intermediate and high-cost assumptions reflecting the uncertainty surrounding projections for a 75-year period. The trust fund projections cited in this CRS report are based on the intermediate (or “best estimate”) assumptions of The 2014 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds, Washington, DC, July 28, 2014, available at http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/TR/2014/tr2014.pdf. (Hereafter cited as 2014 Annual Report.) 20 Status of the Social Security and Medicare Programs: A Summary of the 2014 Annual Reports, Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees, July 28, 2014, p. 12, http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/TRSUM/tr14summary.pdf. Congressional Research Service 4 Social Security: The Trust Fund As noted above, on a combined basis, the Social Security trust fund is projected to remain solvent until 2033. Separately, however, the OASI trust fund is projected to remain solvent until 2034 (compared with 2035 in the 2012 and 2013 Annual Reports) and the DI trust fund is projected to remain solvent until 2016 (the same year projected in the 2012 and 2013 Annual Reports). Under current law, DI benefits could not be paid in full and on time following DI trust fund exhaustion in 2016. With respect to the DI trust fund, the trustees state, ...the DI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2016, at which time continuing income to the DI Trust Fund would be sufficient to pay 81 percent of DI benefits. Therefore, legislative action is needed as soon as possible to address the DI program’s financial imbalance. Lawmakers may consider responding to the impending DI Trust Fund reserve depletion as they did in 1994, solely by reallocating the payroll tax rate between OASI and DI. Such a response might serve to delay DI reforms and much needed corrections for OASDI as a whole. However, enactment of a more permanent solution could include a tax reallocation in the short-run.21 Table 1 shows the annual cash flow operations of the Social Security trust fund (non-interest income, costs, and cash flow surpluses/deficits) for the historical period 1957 to 2013. From 1957 to 1983 (the last time Congress enacted major amendments to the program), the Social Security trust fund operated with a cash flow deficit (costs exceeded non-interest income) in 19 of the 27 years. Since 1984, the trust fund has operated with a cash flow deficit in four of the past 30 years (2010 to 2013). Table 1. Operations of the Social Security Trust Fund, Historical Period 1957-2013 ($ in billions) Costs Cash Flow Surpluses or Deficits (non-interest income less costs) Year Non-Interest Incomea 1957 $7.5 $7.6 ($0.1) 1958 8.5 8.9 (0.4) 1959 8.9 10.8 (1.9) 1960 11.8 11.8 0.0 1961 12.3 13.4 (1.1) 1962 13.1 15.2 (2.1) 1963 15.6 16.2 (0.6) 1964 16.9 17.0 (0.1) 1965 17.2 19.2 (2.0) 1966 22.7 20.9 1.8 1967 25.5 22.5 3.0 1968 27.5 26.0 1.5 21 2014 Annual Report, p. 4. In 1994, the reallocation of the payroll tax rate between OASI and DI was part of the Social Security Domestic Employment Reform Act of 1994 (H.R. 4278, 103rd Congress), which became P.L. 103-387. Congressional Research Service 5 Social Security: The Trust Fund Year Non-Interest Incomea 1969 32.0 27.9 4.1 1970 35.2 33.1 2.1 1971 38.9 38.5 0.4 1972 43.4 43.3 0.1 1973 52.4 53.1 (0.7) 1974 59.4 60.6 (1.2) 1975 64.7 69.2 (4.5) 1976 72.3 78.2 (5.9) 1977 79.5 87.3 (7.8) 1978 89.6 96.0 (6.4) 1979 103.7 107.3 (3.6) 1980 117.4 123.5 (6.1) 1981 140.2 144.4 (4.2) 1982 146.5 160.1 (13.6) 1983 163.0 171.2 (8.2) 1984 183.2 180.4 2.8 1985 200.8 190.6 10.2 1986 212.9 201.5 11.4 1987 225.7 209.1 16.6 1988 255.3 222.5 32.8 1989 276.7 236.2 40.5 1990 298.2 253.1 45.1 1991 307.8 274.2 33.6 1992 317.2 291.9 25.3 1993 327.7 308.8 18.9 1994 350.0 323.0 27.0 1995 364.5 339.8 24.7 1996 385.8 353.6 32.2 1997 413.9 369.1 44.8 1998 439.9 382.3 57.6 1999 471.1 392.9 78.2 2000 503.9 415.1 88.8 2001 529.1 438.9 90.2 2002 546.7 461.7 85.0 2003 547.0 479.1 67.9 2004 568.7 501.6 67.1 Congressional Research Service Costs Cash Flow Surpluses or Deficits (non-interest income less costs) 6 Social Security: The Trust Fund Costs Cash Flow Surpluses or Deficits (non-interest income less costs) Year Non-Interest Incomea 2005 607.5 529.9 77.6 2006 642.5 555.4 87.1 2007 674.7 594.5 80.2 2008 689.0 625.1 63.9 2009 689.2 685.8 3.4 2010 663.6 712.5 (48.9) 2011 690.7 736.1 (45.4) 2012 731.1 785.8 (54.7) 2013 752.2 822.9 (70.7) Source: Table prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS) from data provided in the 2014 Annual Report, Table VI.A3, pp. 153-4. a. Non-interest income is equal to total income minus net interest. Stated another way, non-interest income includes net payroll tax contributions, reimbursements from the general fund of the Treasury to the Social Security trust fund, and federal income tax revenues from the taxation of benefits. Table 2 shows the projected annual cash flow operations of the Social Security trust fund (noninterest income, costs, and cash flow deficits) for the 2014 to 2032 period, as projected by the Social Security trustees in the 2014 Annual Report (under the intermediate assumptions). The trustees project that the Social Security trust fund will operate with a cash flow deficit each year throughout the current projection period. Table 2. Projected Operations of the Social Security Trust Fund, 2014-2032 ($ in billions) Yeara Non-Interest Incomeb Costs Cash Flow Deficits (non-interest income less costs) 2014 $783.4 $863.1 ($79.7) 2015 841.4 909.7 (68.3) 2016 888.9 963.3 (74.4) 2017 944.5 1,022.3 (77.8) 2018 1,003.4 1,087.6 (84.2) 2019 1,060.3 1,158.7 (98.4) 2020 1,117.1 1,235.2 (118.1) 2021 1,174.7 1,312.3 (137.6) 2022 1,232.3 1,395.8 (163.5) 2023 1,289.7 1,484.9 (195.2) 2024 1,347.8 1,577.6 (229.8) 2025 1,408.2 1,674.5 (266.3) 2026 1,471.0 1,774.9 (303.9) Congressional Research Service 7 Social Security: The Trust Fund Yeara Non-Interest Incomeb Costs Cash Flow Deficits (non-interest income less costs) 2027 1,536.4 1,879.1 (342.7) 2028 1,604.5 1,986.6 (382.1) 2029 1,675.3 2,096.6 (421.3) 2030 1,749.1 2,209.2 (460.1) 2031 1,825.9 2,324.0 (498.1) 2032 1,905.9 2,441.1 (535.2) Source: Table prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS) from data provided in Table VI.G8 (intermediate assumptions), Supplemental Single-Year Tables Consistent with the 2014 Annual Report, http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/TR/2014/lr6f8.html. a. Projections for years after 2032 are not shown because the Social Security trust fund is projected to be exhausted in 2033 under the intermediate assumptions. b. Non-interest income is equal to total income minus interest income. One way to measure the cash flow operations over time is to take the ratio of current non-interest income to current costs for each year. A ratio greater than 100% indicates positive cash flow (a cash flow surplus); a ratio less than 100% indicates negative cash flow (a cash flow deficit). Figure 1 shows the ratio of current non-interest income to current costs for the Social Security trust fund each year over the historical period 1957 to 2013 and over the 2014 to 2032 period, as projected by the Social Security trustees in the 2014 Annual Report (under the intermediate assumptions).22 As shown in the figure, in 2009, non-interest income of $689.2 billion divided by costs of $685.8 billion results in a ratio just over 100% (100.5%), indicating a cash flow surplus for the Social Security trust fund. By comparison, in 2013, non-interest income of $752.2 billion divided by costs of $822.9 billion results in a ratio of 91.4%, indicating a cash flow deficit for the Social Security trust fund. In the 2014 Annual Report, the Social Security trustees project that the ratio of current non-interest income to current costs will remain below 100% for the remainder of the projection period, with the gap between non-interest income and costs increasing over time (under the intermediate assumptions). 22 2014 Annual Report, Table VI.A3, pp. 153-4, and Table VI.G8 (intermediate assumptions), Supplemental SingleYear Tables Consistent with the 2014 Annual Report, http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/TR/2014/lr6f8.html. Congressional Research Service 8 Social Security: The Trust Fund Figure 1. Ratio of Current Non-Interest Income to Costs for the Social Security Trust Fund, 1957-2032 Source: Figure prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS) from data provided in the 2014 Annual Report, Table VI.A3, pp. 153-4, and Table VI.G8 (intermediate assumptions), Supplemental Single-Year Tables Consistent with the 2014 Annual Report, http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/TR/2014/lr6f8.html. Notes: Non-interest income excludes interest on accumulated holdings of U.S. government obligations. A ratio above 100% indicates a cash flow surplus for the year. A ratio below 100% indicates a cash flow deficit. When the Social Security trust fund operates with a cash flow deficit, the Treasury can continue to pay benefits at levels scheduled under current law as long as the accumulated balance in the Social Security trust fund is sufficient to cover the cost. This is because the Social Security program has budget authority to pay benefits in full and on time as long as there is an adequate balance in the Social Security trust fund (the designated account). When current revenues are not sufficient to pay benefits, however, the U.S. government must raise the funds necessary to honor the redemption of U.S. government obligations held by the Social Security trust fund as they are needed to pay benefits. If there are no surplus governmental receipts, the U.S. government may raise the necessary funds by increasing taxes or other income, reducing other spending, borrowing from the public (i.e., replacing bonds held by the trust fund with bonds held by the public), or some combination of these measures. Congressional Research Service 9 Social Security: The Trust Fund Investment of the Social Security Trust Fund The Secretary of the Treasury is required by law to invest Social Security revenues in securities backed by the U.S. government.23 In addition, the Social Security trust fund receives interest on its holdings of special U.S. government obligations. Each government security issued by the Treasury for purchase by the Social Security trust fund must be a paper instrument in the form of a bond, note, or certificate of indebtedness.24 Specifically, Section 201(d) of the Social Security Act states, Each obligation issued for purchase by the Trust Funds under this subsection shall be evidenced by a paper instrument in the form of a bond, note, or certificate of indebtedness issued by the Secretary of the Treasury setting forth the principal amount, date of maturity, and interest rate of the obligation, and stating on its face that the obligation shall be incontestable in the hands of the Trust Fund to which it is issued, that the obligation is supported by the full faith and credit of the United States, and that the United States is pledged to the payment of the obligation with respect to both principal and interest. The Managing Trustee may purchase other interest-bearing obligations of the United States or obligations guaranteed as to both principal and interest by the United States, on original issue or at the market price, only where he determines that the purchase of such other obligations is in the public interest. Any interest or proceeds from the sale of government securities held by the Social Security trust fund must be paid in the form of paper checks from the general fund of the Treasury to the Social Security trust fund.25 The interest rates paid on the government securities issued to the Social Security trust fund are tied to market rates.26 For internal federal accounting purposes, when special U.S. government obligations are purchased by the Social Security trust fund, the Treasury is shifting surplus Social Security revenues from one government account (the Social Security trust fund) to another government account (the Treasury’s “general fund” account). The special U.S. government obligations are physical documents held by the Social Security Administration, not the U.S. Treasury. The government securities held by the Social Security trust fund are redeemed on a regular basis. These special U.S. government obligations, however, are not resources for the government because they represent both an asset and a liability for the government. The Social Security Trust Fund and the Federal Budget The Social Security program is indirectly part of the annual congressional budget process. This creates some confusion on the part of the public. 23 Social Security Act, Title II, §201(d). For more information, see Social Security Administration, Office of the Chief Actuary, Actuarial Note Number 142, Social Security Trust Fund Investment Policies and Practices, by Jeffrey L. Kunkel, January 1999, at http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/n1990s.html. 24 Social Security Act, Title II, §201(d). 25 Social Security Act, Title II, §201(f). The funds are then used to purchase additional government securities credited to the Social Security trust fund. 26 For more information, see CRS Report RS20607, Social Security: Trust Fund Investment Practices, by Dawn Nuschler. Congressional Research Service 10 Social Security: The Trust Fund On-Budget Versus Off-Budget For federal budget purposes, on-budget status generally refers to programs that are included in the annual congressional budget process, whereas off-budget status generally refers to programs that are not included in the annual congressional budget process. The Social Security program is a government program that, like the Postal Service, has had its receipts and (most) outlays designated by law as off-budget.27 The off-budget designation, however, has no practical effect on program funding, spending, or operations. The annual congressional budget resolution, in its legislative language, separates the off-budget totals (receipts and outlays) from the on-budget totals (receipts and outlays). The report language accompanying the congressional budget resolution usually shows the unified budget totals (which combine the on- and off-budget amounts) as well as the separate on- and off-budget totals. The President’s budget tends to use the unified budget measures in discussing the budget totals. The President’s budget documents also include the totals for the on- and off-budget components, as required by law. The Congressional Budget Office uses the unified budget numbers in its analyses of the budget; it generally does not include on- and off-budget data in its regular annual reports. The unified budget framework is important because it includes all federal receipts and outlays providing a more comprehensive picture of the size of the federal government, as well as the impact of the federal budget on the economy. In the unified budget, the Social Security program is a large source of both federal receipts (approximately 24% in FY2013) and outlays (approximately 24% in FY2013).28 For purposes of the unified budget, the annual Social Security cash flow surplus or deficit is counted in determining the overall federal budget surplus or deficit. The Social Security Trust Fund as Accumulated Holdings The Social Security trust fund can be (and often is) viewed as a trust fund, similar to any private trust fund, that is to be used for paying current and future benefits (and administrative expenses). By law, Social Security revenues credited to the trust fund (within the U.S. Treasury) are invested in non-marketable U.S. government obligations. These obligations are physical (paper) documents issued to the trust fund and held by the Social Security Administration. When the obligations are redeemed, the Treasury must issue a check (a physical document) to the Social Security trust fund for the interest earned on the obligations.29 Unlike a private trust that may hold a variety of assets and obligations of different borrowers, the Social Security trust fund can hold only U.S. government obligations. The sale of these 27 Although the Social Security program is off-budget, the annual congressional budget process does provide the budget authority for Social Security administrative spending. SSA’s administrative funding, which is paid for out of the Social Security trust fund, is subject to an annual appropriated limit. In contrast, the Social Security program has budget authority to pay benefits as long as there is a sufficient balance in the Social Security trust fund (the designated account). 28 Percentages calculated by the Congressional Research Service (CRS) from data provided in: Office of Management and Budget, Historical Tables, Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2015, Tables 2.1, 2.4, 6.1 and 13.1. 29 The funds are then used to purchase additional government securities credited to the Social Security trust fund. Congressional Research Service 11 Social Security: The Trust Fund obligations by the U.S. government to the Social Security trust fund is federal government borrowing (from itself) and counts against the federal debt limit. The requirement that the Social Security trust fund purchase U.S. government obligations serves several purposes, such as • offering a mechanism for the Social Security program to recoup the surplus revenues loaned to the rest of the government; • paying interest so that the loan of the surplus revenues does not lose value over time; • ensuring that the Social Security trust fund (and not other government accounts) receives credit for the interest earnings; • ensuring a level of return (interest) to the Social Security trust fund; and • providing a means outside of the securities market for the U.S. government to borrow funds. The accumulated holdings of the Social Security trust fund represent the sum of annual surplus Social Security revenues (for all past years) which were invested in U.S. government obligations, plus the interest earned on those obligations. As a result of surplus Social Security revenues from 1984 to 2009 and the interest income credited to the Social Security trust fund, the accumulated holdings of the Social Security trust fund totaled $2.8 trillion at the end of calendar year 2013.30 It is the accumulated holdings of the Social Security trust fund (or the trust fund balance) that many people refer to when discussing the Social Security trust fund. Table 3 shows the accumulated holdings of the Social Security trust fund for the historical period 1957 to 2013. Table 4 shows the projected accumulated holdings of the Social Security trust fund for the 2014 to 2032 period, as projected by the Social Security trustees in the 2014 Annual Report (under the intermediate assumptions). The Social Security trustees project that the level of accumulated trust fund holdings will continue to increase from 2014 through 2019, due to interest income to the trust fund. Under the current projections, the level of accumulated holdings will begin to decline in 2020 (compared with 2021 in the 2013 Annual Report), and the Social Security trust fund will be exhausted in 2033.31 The Social Security trustees project that, on average over the next 75 years (2014 to 2088), program costs will exceed income by an amount equal to 2.88% of taxable payroll (on average, costs are projected to exceed income by about 21%).32 The gap between income and costs, however, is projected to increase over the 75-year period. For example, in 2035, the cost of the program is projected to exceed income by an amount equal to 3.90% of taxable payroll (costs are projected to exceed income by about 30%). By 2085, the cost of the program is projected to 30 The Social Security trust fund also receives reimbursements from the general fund of the Treasury for a variety of purposes. In 2011 and 2012, the trust fund received relatively large reimbursements from the general fund ($102.7 billion and $114.3 billion, respectively). In those years, general revenues were credited to the trust fund to make up for forgone payroll tax revenues under a temporary 2 percentage point reduction in the payroll tax rate for employees. 31 Under the intermediate assumptions of the 2014 Annual Report, the Social Security trustees project that program costs will exceed total income (tax revenues plus interest income) beginning in 2020. At that point, the trust fund balance will begin to be drawn down to help pay benefits and administrative expenses. The trustees project that the assets (government securities) held by the trust fund will be exhausted in 2033. Following the exhaustion of trust fund reserves, the program would continue to operate with incoming receipts. 32 Program costs and income are evaluated as a percentage of taxable payroll because Social Security payroll taxes are the primary source of funding for the program. The 75-year “open group unfunded obligation” for the Social Security program is $10.6 trillion (in present value terms). Congressional Research Service 12 Social Security: The Trust Fund exceed income by an amount equal to 4.76% of taxable payroll (costs are projected to exceed income by about 36%). The Social Security trustees project that the Social Security trust fund would remain solvent throughout the 75-year projection period if, for example, • revenues were increased by an amount equivalent to an immediate and permanent payroll tax rate increase of 2.83 percentage points (from 12.40% to 15.23%; a relative increase of 22.8%);33 • benefits scheduled under current law were reduced by an amount equivalent to an immediate and permanent reduction of (a) 17.4% if applied to all current and future beneficiaries, or (b) 20.8% if applied only to those who become eligible for benefits in 2014 or later; or • some combination of these approaches were to be adopted.34 Table 3. Accumulated Holdings of the Social Security Trust Fund, Historical Period 1957-2013 ($ in billions) Year Accumulated Holdingsa Year Accumulated Holdingsa 1957 $23.0 1986 $46.9 1958 23.2 1987 68.8 1959 22.0 1988 109.8 1960 22.6 1989 163.0 1961 22.2 1990 225.3 1962 20.7 1991 280.7 1963 20.7 1992 331.5 1964 21.2 1993 378.3 1965 19.8 1994 436.4 1966 22.3 1995 496.1 1967 26.3 1996 567.0 1968 28.7 1997 655.5 1969 34.2 1998 762.5 33 The Social Security trustees explain that the projected increase in the payroll tax rate needed for the trust fund to remain solvent throughout the 75-year projection period (2.83 percentage points) differs from the projected 75-year actuarial deficit (2.88% of taxable payroll) for two reasons. The trustees state on page 5 of the 2014 Annual Report: “The necessary tax rate of 2.83 percent differs from the 2.88 percent actuarial deficit for two reasons. First, the necessary tax rate is the rate required to maintain solvency throughout the period that does not result in any trust fund reserve at the end of the period, whereas the actuarial deficit incorporates an ending trust fund reserve equal to 1 year’s cost. Second, the necessary tax rate reflects a behavioral response to tax rate changes, whereas the actuarial deficit does not. In particular, the calculation of the necessary tax rate assumes that an increase in payroll taxes results in a small shift of wages and salaries to forms of employee compensation that are not subject to the payroll tax.” 34 2014 Annual Report, pp. 4-5. Congressional Research Service 13 Social Security: The Trust Fund Year Accumulated Holdingsa Year Accumulated Holdingsa 1970 38.1 1999 896.1 1971 40.4 2000 1,049.4 1972 42.8 2001 1,212.5 1973 44.4 2002 1,378.0 1974 45.9 2003 1,530.8 1975 44.3 2004 1,686.8 1976 41.1 2005 1,858.7 1977 35.9 2006 2,048.1 1978 31.7 2007 2,238.5 1979 30.3 2008 2,418.7 1980 26.5 2009 2,540.3 1981 24.5 2010 2,609.0 1982 24.8 2011 2,677.9 1983 24.9 2012 2,732.3 1984 31.1 2013 2,764.4 1985 42.2 Source: Table prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS) from data provided in the 2014 Annual Report, Table VI.A3, pp. 153-4. Accumulated holdings are end-of-year totals. a. The accumulated holdings of the Social Security trust fund are also referred to as the trust fund balance. Table 4. Projected Accumulated Holdings of the Social Security Trust Fund, 2014-2032 ($ in billions) Yeara Accumulated Holdingsb Yeara Accumulated Holdingsb 2014 $2,783.7 2024 2,582.2 2015 2,812.1 2025 2,431.6 2016 2,834.1 2026 2,243.0 2017 2,854.4 2027 2,012.5 2018 2,871.8 2028 1,736.0 2019 2,878.3 2029 1,403.5 2020 2,867.6 2030 1,012.5 2021 2,838.4 2031 560.2 2022 2,784.1 2032 44.2 2023 2,698.4 Congressional Research Service 14 Social Security: The Trust Fund Source: Table prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS) from data provided in Table VI.G8 (intermediate assumptions), Supplemental Single-Year Tables Consistent with the 2014 Annual Report, http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/TR/2014/lr6f8.html. Accumulated holdings are end-of-year totals. a. Projections for years after 2032 are not shown because the Social Security trust fund is projected to be exhausted in 2033 under the intermediate assumptions. b. The accumulated holdings of the Social Security trust fund are also referred to as the trust fund balance. The Social Security Trust Fund and the Level of Federal Debt As part of the annual congressional budget process, the level of federal debt (the federal debt limit) is set for the budget by Congress. The federal debt limit includes debt held by the public as well as the internal debt of the U.S. government (i.e., debt held by government accounts). Borrowing from the public and the investment of the Social Security trust fund in special U.S. government obligations both fall under the restrictions of the federal debt limit. This means that the Social Security trust fund balance has implications for the federal debt limit.35 The Social Security Trust Fund and Benefit Payments The accumulated holdings of the Social Security trust fund, which represent budget authority for the program, can be viewed as a measure of funds dedicated to pay current and future benefits. However, when current tax revenues are below levels needed to pay benefits,36 these funds (the accumulated holdings) are available to pay benefits only as the government raises the resources necessary to pay for the securities as they are redeemed by the Social Security trust fund. The securities are a promise, by the U.S. government, to raise the necessary funds.37 When the system is operating with a cash flow surplus, the surplus Social Security revenues (which are invested in government securities held by the trust fund) are used to fund other government activities at the time. The surplus Social Security revenues, therefore, are not available to finance benefits directly when the system is operating with a cash flow deficit. Stated another way, when the Social Security trust fund runs a cash flow deficit, the trust fund cashes in more federal government securities than the amount of current Social Security tax revenues, relying in part on accumulated trust fund holdings to pay benefits and administrative expenses. Because the federal government securities held by the trust fund are redeemed with general revenues, this results in increased spending for Social Security from the general fund. With respect to the Social Security program’s reliance on general revenues, it is important to note that Social Security does not have authority to borrow from the general fund of the Treasury. Rather, the program relies on revenues collected for Social Security purposes in previous years that were used by the federal government at the time for other (non-Social Security) spending needs and interest income earned on trust fund investments. The program draws on those 35 For a discussion of how reaching the debt limit potentially could affect Social Security trust fund investment practices and benefit payments, see CRS Report R41633, Reaching the Debt Limit: Background and Potential Effects on Government Operations, coordinated by Mindy R. Levit. 36 In the 2014 Annual Report, the Social Security trustees project that revenues will remain below program costs each year throughout the 75-year projection period (2014-2088), under the intermediate assumptions. 37 If there are no surplus governmental receipts, the U.S. government may raise the necessary funds by increasing taxes or other income, reducing other spending, borrowing from the public (i.e., replacing bonds held by the trust fund with bonds held by the public), or some combination of these measures. Congressional Research Service 15 Social Security: The Trust Fund previously collected Social Security tax revenues and interest income (accumulated trust fund holdings) when current Social Security tax revenues fall below current program expenditures. The Social Security trustees project that the accumulated holdings of the Social Security trust fund will be exhausted in 2033. At that time, the program will continue to operate with incoming receipts to the trust fund that are projected to equal about 77% of program costs. By the end of the 75-year projection period (2088), incoming receipts are projected to equal about 72% of program costs (based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2014 Annual Report).38 The Social Security Act does not state what would happen to the payment of benefits scheduled under current law in the event of Social Security trust fund exhaustion. Two possible scenarios are (1) the payment of full monthly benefits on a delayed schedule or (2) the payment of partial (reduced) monthly benefits on time.39 Author Contact Information Dawn Nuschler Specialist in Income Security dnuschler@crs.loc.gov, 7-6283 Gary Sidor Information Research Specialist gsidor@crs.loc.gov, 7-2588 Acknowledgments This report was originally written by Christine Scott. 38 2014 Annual Report, p. 11. As noted, on a separate basis, the OASI trust fund is projected to be exhausted in 2034, and the DI trust fund is projected to be exhausted in 2016. Therefore, under current law, DI benefits could not be paid in full and on time following DI trust fund exhaustion in 2016. For more information, see CRS Report R43318, Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund: Background and Solvency Issues, by William R. Morton; CRS Report RL33514, Social Security: What Would Happen If the Trust Funds Ran Out?, by Christine Scott; and CRS Report RL32822, Social Security Reform: Legal Analysis of Social Security Benefit Entitlement Issues, by Kathleen S. Swendiman and Thomas J. Nicola. 39 Congressional Research Service 16