Armed Conflict in Syria:
U.S. and International Response
Jeremy M. Sharp
Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs
Christopher M. Blanchard
Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs
July 19, 2012
Congressional Research Service
7-5700
www.crs.gov
RL33487
CRS Report for Congress
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epared for Members and Committees of Congress
Armed Conflict in Syria: U.S. and International Response
Summary
Syria is now mired in an armed conflict between forces loyal to President Bashar al Asad and
rebel fighters opposed to his rule. Since major unrest began in March 2011, various reports
suggest that between 17,000 and 18,000 Syrians have been killed. U.S. officials and many
analysts believe that President Bashar al Asad, his family members, and his other supporters will
ultimately be forced from power, but few offer specific, credible timetables for a resolution to
Syria’s ongoing crisis.
In the face of intense domestic and international pressure calling for political change and for an
end to violence against civilians, the Asad government has offered limited reforms while also
meeting protests and armed attacks with overwhelming force. Nonviolent protests continue, but
their apparent futility has created frustration and anger within the opposition ranks. An increasing
number of Syrian civilians have taken up arms in self-defense, although armed rebel attacks
alienate some potential supporters. The government accuses the opposition of carrying out
bombings and assassinations targeting security infrastructure, security personnel, and civilians in
Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, and other areas. Accounts of human rights abuses by both sides
persist, with the majority attributed to security forces and military units.
President Obama and his Administration have been calling for Asad’s resignation since August
2011, and have been vocal advocates for United Nations Security Council action to condemn the
Syrian government and end the bloodshed. The United States has closed its embassy in
Damascus, and Ambassador Robert Ford has left Syria. U.S. officials are actively participating in
efforts to improve international policy coordination on Syria. The Administration has given no
indication that it intends to pursue any form of military intervention. U.S. officials and some in
Congress continue to debate various proposals for ending the violence and accelerating Asad’s
departure.
After over a year of unrest and violence, Syria’s crisis is characterized by dilemmas and
contradictions. A menu of imperfect choices confronts U.S. policymakers, amid fears of
continued violence, a humanitarian crisis, and regional instability. The potential spillover effects
of continued fighting raise questions with regard to Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Israel.
Larger refugee flows, sectarian conflict, or transnational violence by non-state actors are among
the contingencies that policy makers are concerned about in relation to these countries. The unrest
also is creating new opportunities for Al Qaeda or other violent extremist groups to operate in
Syria. The security of Syrian conventional and chemical weapons stockpiles has become a
regional security concern, which will grow if a security vacuum emerges. Many observers worry
that an escalation in fighting or swift regime change could generate new pressures on minority
groups or lead to wider civil or regional conflict.
Members of Congress are weighing these issues as they debate U.S. policy and the Syrian crisis.
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Contents
Background...................................................................................................................................... 1
Casualty Estimates .............................................................................................................. 1
Assessment: The Conflict and Its Aftermath ................................................................................... 2
Possible Future Scenarios.......................................................................................................... 4
Latest Developments........................................................................................................................ 6
Armed Conflict in Syria................................................................................................................... 9
The International Dimension of the Syria Conflict........................................................................ 11
U.S. Policy Toward Syria ........................................................................................................ 18
Issues Before Congress.................................................................................................................. 19
Humanitarian Conditions and Refugees .................................................................................. 20
Security of Syrian Weapons of Mass Destruction Questioned ................................................ 21
Al Qaeda and Violent Extremists: New Opportunities in Syria?............................................. 23
Congressional Views of the Syria Conflict.................................................................................... 23
Debating Intervention and other Options ................................................................................ 24
Syria Legislation in the 112th Congress ................................................................................... 25
Possible Questions................................................................................................................... 27
Background and Key Developments ............................................................................................. 27
Demographic Profile and Political Dynamics ......................................................................... 27
The Asad Government and its Supporters ............................................................................... 28
The Alawite Community ................................................................................................... 29
Opposition and Armed Groups................................................................................................ 30
Non-Alawite Minority Communities....................................................................................... 32
Syria’s Economy and Sanctions..................................................................................................... 34
Figures
Figure 1. Syrian Casualties by Governorate .................................................................................... 2
Figure 2. Syria at a Glance............................................................................................................... 5
Figure 3. Registered Syrian Refugees............................................................................................ 21
Tables
Table 1. Recent Russian Arms Sales to Syria ................................................................................ 15
Table A-1. U.S. Sanctions Against Syria in 2011-2012 ................................................................. 37
Appendixes
Appendix. U.S. Sanctions and Legislation .................................................................................... 36
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Contacts
Author Contact Information........................................................................................................... 46
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Background
Syrians have long struggled with many of the same challenges that have bred deep dissatisfaction
in other Arab autocracies, including high unemployment, high inflation, limited upward mobility,
rampant corruption, lack of political freedoms, and repressive security forces. These factors have
fueled opposition to Syria’s authoritarian government, which has been dominated by the Baath
(Renaissance) Party since 1963, and the Al Asad family since 1970. President Bashar al Asad’s
father—Hafiz al Asad—ruled the country from 1970 until his death in 2000. The Asad family are
members of the minority Alawite sect (estimated 12% of the population), which has its roots in
Shiite Islam. They and the Baath party have cultivated Alawites as a key base of support, and elite
security forces have long been led by Alawites. The government violently suppressed an armed
uprising led by the Muslim Brotherhood in the early 1980s, killing thousands from the majority
Sunni Muslim community.
Since taking office in 2000, President Asad has offered and retracted the prospect of limited
political reform, while aligning his government with Iran and non-state actors such as Hamas and
Hezbollah in a complex rivalry with the United States and its Arab and non-Arab allies (including
Israel). Syria’s long-standing partnership with Russia has remained intact and is now the focus of
intense diplomatic attention because Russia is one of the regime’s only remaining defenders.
As unrest emerged in other Arab countries in early 2011, Asad and many observers mistakenly
believed that Syria’s pervasive police state and the population’s fear of sectarian violence would
serve as a bulwark against the outbreak of turmoil. Limited calls in February 2011 to organize
reform protests failed, but the government’s torture of children involved in an isolated incident in
the southern town of Dara’a in March provided a decisive spark for the emergence of
demonstrations. The use of force against demonstrators in Dara’a and later in other cities created
a corresponding swell in public anger and public participation in protests. The government
organized large counterdemonstrations.
The Sunni Muslim majority has been at the forefront of the recent protests and armed opposition
to the Alawite-led regime, with Syria’s Christians and other minority groups caught between their
parallel fears of violent change and of being associated with Asad’s crackdown. Economic class
dynamics also are influencing the choices of Syrians about the uprising: many rural, less
advantaged Syrians have supported the opposition movement, while urban, wealthier Syrians
appear to have more divided loyalties.
For much of 2011 and early 2012, a cycle of tension and violence intensified, as President Asad
and his government paired limited reform gestures with the use of military force against
protestors and armed opposition groups. Violence was initially limited to certain locations but
now has affected most major cities, including Damascus. Despite international efforts to broker a
cease-fire, by the summer of 2012 government and opposition forces have been engaged in all-
out armed conflict.
Casualty Estimates
Now in its second year, the popular-uprising-turned-armed-rebellion against the Asad regime
seems poised to continue in the absence of a political agreement or decisive military solution.
Precise casualty estimates are not available. The Strategic Research and Communication Centre, a
research organization on Syria, reports that as of July 2012, over 18,000 Syrians have been killed
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since the revolt began in March 2011. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights
reported in early July that 17,129 Syrians have died since March 2011, including 11,897 civilians,
4,348 soldiers and 884 military defectors.
Figure 1. Syrian Casualties by Governorate
(As of June 30, 2012)
Sources: The Washington Post and http://syrianshuhada.com/default.asp?lang=en.
Assessment: The Conflict and Its Aftermath
With Syria now in the throes of a major conflict, it appears that the Asad regime will continue to
use military force to suppress the mostly Sunni Arab uprising until it is either victorious or is no
longer politically or militarily capable of fighting. For the minority Alawite-dominated regime,
the uprising against it is perceived as an existential threat to the group’s more than four-decade
hold on power. Though there may be a few elites who seek compromise with opponents, there has
been little public dissent from leading members of the regime. Moreover, some Alawites may see
their community’s fate as tied to that of the current government. The regime has not indicated that
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it is willing to accept a negotiated political solution to the conflict, and President Asad has refused
to abdicate power.1
Despite the Asad government’s apparent confidence that it can prevail, many observers argue that
over time, the regime will gradually lose control over more and more of the country, as its
political, economic, and military bases of support erode. This collective judgment is based on a
number of factors, including
• Sustained protest against the Asad government for over 16 months despite a
brutal government crackdown that has included the arrest of thousands of citizens
and documented cases of torture and regime-instigated massacres;
• Continued reports of defections from the armed forces and from the Sunni
political and business elite;
• The growing size and capabilities of the Sunni anti-government insurgency,
which has demonstrated resiliency in the face of severe repression, has adopted
effective tactics against superior forces, and reportedly has become better
equipped with the help of external arms shipments;
• Recurring rebel attacks against government facilities in Damascus and Aleppo,
Syria’s two largest cities and symbols of regime control;
• The hardships that international sanctions are creating for Syrians disconnected
from the political establishment, and;
• The inability of the armed forces to be everywhere at once, as local rebellions
have sprouted in numerous locales, creating pockets of opposition self-rule.
Projections of how quickly the current Syrian government may weaken vary.2 While some
observers initially believed in 2011 that the Asad regime would fall quickly, some subsequent
projections since then have been more conservative. Some experts note that neighboring
Lebanon’s sectarian civil war lasted 15 years before warring parties reached a political solution.
In Iraq between 1991 and 2003, the late Saddam Hussein retained control over a war-ravaged
country despite widespread Kurdish and Shiite opposition to his rule and a Western-imposed no-
fly zone covering significant swaths of the country. In late June 2012, an unnamed U.S.
intelligence official was reported to have judged that:
The regime inner circle and those at the next level still seem to be holding fairly firm in
support of the regime and Assad.... Both sides seem to be girding for a long struggle. Our
sense is that the regime still believes it can ultimately prevail or at least appears determined
to try to prevail and the opposition at the same time seems to be preparing for a long fight.3
Nevertheless, it is also quite possible that the regime could unravel over a much shorter time
frame. In the wake of new fighting in the capital, culminating in the July 18 high-profile bomb
attack that killed the Syrian Defense Minister and other senior officials, many observers now
1 The next presidential election is supposed to take place in 2014. Under the terms of Syria’s recently-amended
constitution, President Asad, who has already been in office since 2000, could serve an additional two, 7-year terms if
reelected, keeping him in the presidency until 2028.
2 Neighboring Lebanon’s sectarian civil war lasted 15 years before warring parties reached a political solution.
3 “U.S. Intelligence sees few Cracks in Assad’s Inner Circle,” Reuters, June 26, 2012.
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calculate that the fall of President Asad’s government may be within a matter of days or weeks
rather than months or years.
Overall, there are a number of factors that will determine how quickly the Syrian regime
weakens, including
• The ability of the armed opposition to succeed on the battlefield and to target
high-level members of President Asad’s inner circle;
• The ability of various armed and political opposition groups to coalesce around a
unified body of leadership that is recognized by the international community and
local Syrians;
• The willingness of the Sunni business community in Aleppo and Damascus to
continue to support the government;
• The ability of the Syrian government to pay public sector salaries amidst
economic sanctions;
• The willingness of minority groups which so far have been either neutral or
supportive of the government to join the ranks of the opposition;
• The ability of the Syrian government to continue to receive military and financial
assistance from friendly nations, and;
• The morale of the armed forces in the face of ongoing fighting and their brutal
suppression campaign against civilians.
Possible Future Scenarios
The historic political changes that have swept across the Arab world since 2011 have confounded
many experts, and there is no consensus over how the Syria conflict may be resolved, if at all.
With both sides viewing the conflict as a zero-sum game, a peaceful settlement in the near term
seems unlikely. Several other potential outcomes appear more plausible.
Imminent Regime Defeat? Based on the rapid escalation of fighting in Damascus beginning on
July 14 and 15, there is a growing possibility that rebel fighters could seize significant parts of the
capital and/or assassinate or kidnap additional high-level officials, leading to the collapse of the
Asad government. The July 18 rebel bombing that killed three high-level regime figures,
including the President’s brother-in-law, dealt a major blow to the government and may have
psychologically changed the narrative of the conflict in favor of the opposition.
An Enduring Conflict and State Collapse? As previously mentioned, both sides could wage
armed conflict for years, leading to tens of thousands of more casualties before exhaustion settles
in and a negotiation over power sharing ensues. If war were to continue indefinitely, it is possible
that the modern nation state of Syria could splinter into Alawite, Sunni, and Kurdish regions with
cities divided by sectarian neighborhoods.4 Or, a country devastated by years of warfare could
4 For example, Frank Salameh, a professor at Boston College, wrote “And so today’s strings of wanton murders, sexual
assaults, torture, arbitrary detentions, targeted bombings and destruction of neighborhoods—and what they entail in
terms of displacements, deportations and population movements—are nothing if not the groundwork of a future
Alawite entity; the grafting of new facts on the ground and the drafting of new frontiers. No longer able to rule in the
name of Arab unity (and in the process preserve their own ethnic and sectarian autonomy), the Alawites may retreat
(continued...)
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simply cease to maintain central governance. Though comparisons to a failed state such as
Somalia may be too extreme, authority could become concentrated locally, as communities self-
organize politically, economically, and even militarily. Total state collapse poses serious risks for
the international community due to Syrian chemical weapon stockpiles and security vacuums that
present opportunities for transnational terrorist groups to take root—particularly Sunni Jihadist
groups from neighboring Iraq which have fought Asad’s forces.
Figure 2. Syria at a Glance
Source: CRS Graphics.
(...continued)
into the Levantine highlands overlooking the Mediterranean.” See, “An Alawite State in Syria?” The National Interest,
July 10, 2012.
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Status of Key Members of the Asad Family
Bashar al Asad—The 45-year-old president of Syria. He has ruled Syria since 2000 after the death of his father. He is
married to Asma’ al Akhras, a British-born Syrian Sunni Muslim and formerly an investment banker at J.P. Morgan.
Maher al Asad—The younger brother of Bashar, he heads the Presidential Guard and other military units, such as the
army’s elite Fourth Division.
Bushra al Asad & Asef Shawkat—Bushra is the older sister of Bashar, and she is rumored to be a key decision-maker.
Her husband, Assef Shawkat, was intelligence chief and deputy chief of staff of the Army. He was killed on July 18,
2012.
Fawwaz and Munzer al Asad—Cousins of the president who are reportedly involved in militia-instigated violence.
Rami Makhluf—The 40-year-old cousin of President Bashar al Asad. Makhluf is a powerful Syrian businessman who
serves as an interlocutor between foreign investors and Syrian companies.
Hafiz Makhlouf—A cousin of the president and head of the Damascus branch of general intelligence.
Iyad Makhlouf—Younger brother of Rami and an officer in general intelligence.
Ihab Makhlouf—Younger brother of Rami and vice president of the SyriaTel mobile-phone company.
A Military Coup? Though the core of the Asad regime has not had any significant defections, a
military coup is a remote possibility. Some military commanders, when faced with mounting
battlefield losses and the prospect of defeat, may calculate that a move against the innermost
circle of the Asad family could be enough to salvage a place at the negotiating table during a
transition process. However, the unity of Alawite elites appears strong and the regime is known
for its intricate system of control over commanders in the military and intelligence apparatus.
Moreover, many military leaders are linked by kinship ties, further complicating any possible
plots against Syria’s rulers.
A Negotiated Solution? As previously mentioned, so long as both the regime and its opponents
seek total victory on the battlefield and envision a future Syrian government dominated by their
respective sectarian communities, a political settlement will remain elusive. On June 30, the
Action Group on Syria endorsed the concept of a compromise agreement “formed on the basis of
mutual consent” to create a national unity government, though what role the ruling Baath party
would play in such a transition is uncertain.
A Regional War? Though outside powers, such as the Gulf states, Turkey, and Iran, may be
supporting proxy groups inside Syria as well as the central government, their direct military
intervention could become possible in the event of some unpredictable event. In Turkey, the
downing of a recent fighter jet drew serious Turkish condemnation of the Asad government, but
not direct intervention. Similar incidents in the future could spark different reactions. Moreover,
the fighting in Syria could spill over into Lebanon, where Sunni-Shiite tensions have already
boiled over, resulting in violence between rival Sunni-Alawite neighborhoods in the city of
Tripoli in 2012.
Latest Developments
• Another Russian and Chinese Veto. On July 19 at the United Nations Security
Council, Russia and China vetoed a proposed resolution that would have
instituted U.N. sanctions against the Asad regime if it failed to comply with the
Annan peace plan. The Security Council also is attempting to extend the mandate
of its observer mission, which is authorized until July 20. The Security Council
could reauthorize it for a 45-day period in a separate resolution, though the
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mission itself remains suspended due the armed conflict that continues to rage in
the capital Damascus and elsewhere.
• High-Level Officials Assassinated. On July 18, the Free Syrian Army claims to
have detonated remote-controlled bombs inside the National Security
headquarters building in central Damascus during a meeting of the government’s
top security officials. The explosions killed Defense Minister Dawoud Rajha,
Assistant to the Vice-President Hassan Turkmani, and Asef Shawkat, the deputy
defense minister and brother-in-law to President Asad. It also wounded the
interior minister. Shawkat is the first member of President Asad’s immediate
family to have been killed in the conflict. Some observers suggest that this attack
may signal a turning point in Syria’s civil war and could accelerate the demise of
the regime.
• Syria Conflict Termed a “Civil War.” On July 16, the International Committee
of the Red Cross stated that the fighting in Syria could now be defined as “a non-
international armed conflict.” This designation, according to one expert, means
that “the designation of the conflict as a civil war broadens the categories under
which both sides can be prosecuted for war crimes under international
humanitarian law, since while prosecutions for crimes against humanity can take
place whatever the nature of the conflict, the broader category of war crimes can
be applied only when a state of war has been found to exist.”5
• Fighting in Damascus. Beginning on July 15, rebel fighters launch a wave of
attacks in various neighborhoods in southern Damascus. The next day, the Free
Syrian Army announces the start of operation “Damascus Volcano,” a pre-
planned assault on regime forces in and around the capital.
• Ambassador Defection. On July 12, Syrian Ambassador to Iraq Nawaf Fares
announced his defection from the regime. He is reportedly in Qatar. Fares is head
of Sunni Uqaydat tribe whose members live along Syria’s eastern border with
Iraq.
• Tlass Defection. On July 6, various sources reported that General Manaf Tlass,
the son of a former defense minister6 and member of a prominent Sunni family,
had fled Syria to Turkey and defected from the regime. The Tlass family had
been key supporters of the Asad regime, but Manaf and other relatives were
angered by the regime’s brutal suppression of their ancestral areas around Rastan
and Homs. Manaf had reportedly refused to lead Republican Guard units
involved against insurgents and had been relieved from duty last year; he may
have been under house arrest. By 2012, his family had fled Syria.
• Friends of Syria. On July 6 in Paris, the Friends of Syria convened another
conference to discuss ways of pressuring the Syrian government to abide by the
United Nations peace plan for Syria. Despite calls for new economic sanctions,
possibly through the United Nations, the Friends of Syria gathering did not
include Russia or China. In response, Secretary of State Clinton addressed the
gathering, saying “What can every nation and group represented here do?.... I ask
5 David Rieff, “Blood Law,” ForeignPolicy.com, July 17, 2012.
6 General Mustafa Tlass was defense minister from 1972 to 2004 and played a key role in smoothing the transition from
the late president Hafez al Asad to his son Bashar after the latter’s death in 2000. He now lives in Paris, France.
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you to reach out to Russia and China, and to not only urge but demand that they
get off the sidelines and begin to support the legitimate aspirations of the Syrian
people.”
• Opposition Meeting. On July 4 in Cairo, the largest gathering of Syrian
opposition groups convened to discuss unifying their ranks and developing a
common platform. Disagreement continued over the formation of a single
opposition council representing all groups. Delegates did agree on an outline for
a political transition and on a “National Covenant,” which prescribed democratic
principles that could be enshrined in a future constitution. However, the meeting
featured a walk out by Kurdish members. According to one unnamed Arab
League diplomat, “If the international community wanted a nice, organized
opposition in Syria, they are dreaming....The reality of the situation in Syria is
very difficult and confusing. This is (the) result of 40 years of dictatorship.”7
• International Action Group on Syria. On June 30 in Geneva, Switzerland, the
Action Group8 on Syria issued a communiqué9 endorsing the Annan peace plan
and calling for a transitional government of national unity in Syria that could
include members of the opposition and current regime. Such a transitional
government would be charged with overseeing the drafting of a new constitution
and national elections. In order to secure Russian support for the final statement,
the Action Group stated that any transitional government “shall be formed on the
basis of mutual consent,” a phrase that would give supporters of Asad and the
opposition veto power over the selection of unity government leaders. This was
an important development for the opposition even though the final statement did
not explicitly call for Asad’s resignation. Syrian opposition groups insist that
Asad resign the presidency. When asked to comment on why the final document
did not include calls for Asad’s resignation, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham
Clinton remarked that “Assad will still have to go. He will never pass the mutual
consent test, given the blood on his hands.”10
• Syria Shoots Down Turkish Jet. On June 22, 2012, Syrian forces shot down a
Turkish reconnaissance jet. The Syrian and Turkish governments disagree over
the path of the jet, with Syria claiming that it crossed over its territorial waters.
Reportedly, the Turkish plane carried photo surveillance equipment. The Turkish
government strongly condemned the Syrian government over the incident and
reinforced its borders, though no new confrontations have occurred since.
• Suspension of UN Observation Mission. A spike in violence in early June led
the U.N. military observers of the U.N. Supervision Mission in Syria (UNSMIS)
to suspend their operations on June 16. Chief military observer Maj. Gen. Robert
7 “Syria opposition rifts give world excuse not to act,” Reuters, July 4, 2012.
8 Action Group members include the five permanent members of the Security Council (China, France, Russia, the
United Kingdom and the United States of America) and representatives from Turkey, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, the European
Union, and the Arab League. As part of a compromise over the formation of the group, Iran and Saudi Arabia were
excluded from participating. The Syrian government has accused Saudi Arabia of shipping arms to rebels while the
opposition has accused Iran of supporting the Asad regime.
9 http://www.unog.ch/unog/website/news_media.nsf/%28httpNewsByYear_en%29/
18F70DBC923963B1C1257A2D0060696B?OpenDocument.
10 Press Availability Following the Meeting of the Action Group on Syria, Remarks Hillary Rodham Clinton Secretary
of State, Palais de Nations Geneva, Switzerland, June 30, 2012.
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Mood said, “This escalation is limiting our ability to observe, verify, report as
well as assist in local dialogue and stability projects – basically impeding our
ability to carry out our mandate. The lack of willingness by the parties to seek a
peaceful transition, and the push towards advancing military positions is
increasing the losses on both sides: innocent civilians, men women and children
are being killed every day. It is also posing significant risks to our observers.”
• New Head of the Syrian National Council. The Syrian National Council
elected Syrian Kurdish activist and professor Abdulbaset Sieda as its new
chairman. Some opposition members and observers warned that Sieda would be
unable to oppose the dominance of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood and other
Islamist groups within the Council. On June 17, he said “The international
community must bear its … responsibilities to take decisive decisions through
the U.N. Security Council under Chapter 7 to protect civilians.”
Armed Conflict in Syria
The armed conflict in Syria features regular and irregular government forces fighting against
mostly Sunni irregular fighters organized on the basis of local units and nominally coordinated on
a national basis by Free Syrian Army leaders in Turkey. On June 26, President Asad underscored
the seriousness of the conflict, saying in a speech that “we live in a state of war... all our policies,
directives and all sectors will be directed in order to gain victory in this war.” As the conflict
intensifies with no signs of abating, many analysts suggest that the degree of regime brutality will
increase. Asad’s forces may attempt to completely isolate if not destroy Sunni population centers
such as Homs and Hama. In response, opposition fighters, who increasingly are well-armed and
better coordinated, appear to be intensifying their guerilla-style attacks on government troops and
infrastructure in an attempt to push the regime to its breaking point.
There is no expert consensus on how long this conflict will last. However, many experts predict
that over time, the regime will not be able to sustain itself in its current form; the overall strain
placed on it by fighting and international sanctions, they argue, will slowly erode its grip on
society. Many experts believe that the Asad regime, because it is dominated by a minority group,
lacks the manpower to police the country given the current state of opposition. Should regime
authority gradually erode, many analysts have expressed concern that disparate groups of militias,
local citizens, and other minority communities will self-organize in place of a central
government. Few experts believe that the regime, even using all-out-force, can end the
rebellion—particularly given higher levels of external assistance now being provided to the
opposition by foreign nations. A negotiated end to the fighting does not appear to be realistic for
the time being. Instead, both sides appear to view total victory as the only option, despite
international attempts to stop the fighting.
Key characteristics of the fighting include the following.
• Battlefield Geography. Though violence has occurred in all parts of Syria, it is
most concentrated in Homs and its environs.11 Overall, most confrontations have
taken place inside villages and cities along the country’s main north-south
11 Reports suggest that Sunni neighborhoods of Homs have been decimated by artillery shelling, and thousands of
residents have fled.
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highway. However, there has been far less violence inside Syria’s two wealthiest
and largest Syrian cities, Aleppo and the capital Damascus. In addition to Homs
city and governorate, many casualties have been reported in the governorates of
Idlib, Hama, Dera’a, and Deir al Zour. According to Joseph Holliday, an analyst
at Washington’s Institute for the Study of War, “There’s a stalemate in which the
government controls key major cities. But once you get off the main highway, the
rebels basically own it.” Rebels seem to have the most autonomy in the northern
province of Idlib and the southern province of Dera’a.
• Alawite Regime Tactics. Since March 2011, Asad regime forces (numbering
between 100,000 to 200,000 [est.]) have used both regular units12 and irregular
militias to quash dissent throughout Syria. In Homs, military units have encircled
the city and bombarded it with artillery fire, leveling most Sunni districts of the
city while leaving Alawite neighborhoods intact. Overall, the armed forces
possess heavy weaponry, such as tanks, armored personnel carriers, attack
helicopters, and fighters, giving it an advantage in direct military
confrontations.13 Government forces also have established checkpoints along
many of the country’s main roads to limit opposition movement. In recent
months, the government has resorted to using air power in order to limit its
casualties on the ground when fighting in hostile territory.14 Since the earliest
days of opposition, the regime also reportedly has dispatched irregular forces,
known as Shabiha ("ghosts” in Arabic), to commit atrocities throughout the
countryside and thus terrorize the Sunni population. As violence has escalated in
recent months, massacres have been reported, including in the Houla region (At
least 108 people killed, including 49 children and 34 women, on May 25) and Al
Kubeir (alt. sp. Al Qubair, Qubeir, at least 55 people on June 6). Though the
regime has denied any official involvement, Syrian activists suspect that the
Shabiha could be behind these massacres.15
• Sunni Soldier Defections. Since the beginning of the uprising against the Asad
regime in March 2011, thousands of low ranking soldiers and some high ranking
officers have defected to the opposition. Though exact numbers are hard to
pinpoint, most reports suggest that almost all army defectors are Sunnis, who
make up the bulk of Syria’s conscript armed forces but not its core, which is
Alawite. The June 2012 defection of a MiG-21 pilot to Jordan was an
embarrassment for the Asad regime, since it marked the first time that an Air
Force officer had flown a fighter plane outside the country to seek political
12 Syria’s elite Republican Guard units consist of an estimated 8,000 soldiers and are stationed mainly in the capital to
protect the core of the regime.
13 Some reports suggest that Syrian military tactics are poor when engaging rebel forces. According to one report,
“Syrian military use of tanks and armored personnel carriers also lacks tactical skill. Contrary to standard military
doctrine, Syrian armor frequently advances into contested urban zones without the accompanying support of ground
troops. This leaves the armor vulnerable to rebel gunners, equipped with rocket-propelled grenades, who fire at the
tanks and then quickly retreat out of the tanks’ line of sight. T-72 tanks, the type predominantly used by the
government, are vulnerable to RPG strikes against the turret, treads and rear engine area.” See, “Some Rebels Wonder
If Syrian Troops’ Poor Use Of Tanks, Helicopters Is Intentional,” McClatchy Newspapers, June 21, 2012.
14 According to one report, Syrian air power is limited with up to half of all fighter and helicopters fully operational at
any one time. See, “Slipping Out of Assad’s Grasp Syrian Army Unable to Stop Flood of Deserters,” Der Spiegel, June
11, 2012.
15 “Shabiha Militiamen, Tools of the Syria Regime,” Agence France Presse, June 10, 2012.
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asylum. Reportedly, there are many Sunni pilots in the Syrian Air Force.
According to one report, “Nearly all commanding officers in the air force are
Alawites, and the defection generated speculation that Sunni pilots would face
new restrictions on any flying missions.”16
• Sunni Rebel Tactics and Arms Supply. Over time the military efficacy of
Syrian rebel fighters nominally affiliated with the Free Syrian Army (FSA)
appears to be increasing due to both external assistance and their own
capabilities. As of late June 2012, there are over 100 Syrian opposition militias
fighting government forces. Each militia has anywhere from a few dozen up to
1,000 fighters in its ranks. 17 Various reports suggest that rebel groups hold some
Syrian territory, particularly in the far northern areas of the country where some
groups have set up committees to provide social services to area residents, such
as fuel and food distribution. However, unlike in Libya, rebel groups do not hold
a single, contiguous area that can be effectively defended. Some rebel fighters are
receiving salaries ranging between $25 to $200 a month and funded either by
foreign nations (Saudi Arabia, Qatar) or by Syrians expatriates. Smugglers
operating on Turkish-Syrian border are allegedly funneling weapons, cash, and
supplies to militias in greater quantities than ever.18 Overall, Syrian opposition
fighters, emboldened by their successes and new weapons, have engaged more
openly against government forces, striking at armored units and probing more
closely to core elements of the regime ensconced in the capital. Rebel fighters
have become particularly adept at using road-side bombs19, and rocket propelled
grenade launchers against armored vehicles.
The International Dimension of the Syria Conflict
Beyond the conflict’s internal combatants, there are many international and regional dimensions
to the fighting in Syria. At the United Nations Security Council, Russia and China have opposed
foreign military intervention in Syria. Both apparently fear that authorizing another intervention
along the lines of the 2011 NATO operation against the Qadhafi regime in Libya—which they
claim exceeded its initial U.N. mandate—could expand the scope of legal justification for future
Western-led action in areas Russia and China view as lying within their respective spheres of
influence. Russia and China argue that in Libya, the West pursued regime change under the guise
of humanitarian intervention, a precedent they view as dangerous. Moreover, for Russia, Syria is
a longtime Arab client dating back to the Cold War, and Russian leaders would likely view the
16 “Syrian Air Force Pilot’s Defection Raises Concerns for Military,” New York Times, June 22, 2012.
17 “Syria rebels Divided, at Times Violent,” Associated Press, June 21, 2012.
18 According to one account, “The first large consignment [of weapons] was handed over more than two months ago
and was distributed to select groups operating in and around Idlib, Hama, Homs and the outskirts of Damascus. Each
area received several hundred rocket-propelled grenade launchers (with 10 grenades per launcher), Kalashnikov rifles,
BKC machine guns and ammunition, according to several sources. The goods are ferried across the border on donkeys,
as well as physically carried in by the rebels.” See, “Opening the Weapons Tap: Syria’s Rebels Await Fresh and Free
Ammo,” Time.com, June 22, 2012.
19 According to one report, rebel use of roadside bombs has nearly doubled in 2012 compared to 2011, though the
numbers that percentage is based on are classified. See, “Rebels Show ‘Huge Growth’ In Capability,” USA Today, July
10, 2012. According to another expert, “The percentage of I.E.D. attacks compared to overall rebel activity has not
increased in a statistically significant way....What has increased is the percentage of effective attacks.” See, “Syrian
Rebels Hone Bomb Skills to Even the Odds,” New York Times, July 18, 2012.
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downfall of the regime as a serious blow to their diplomatic prestige and Middle
Eastern/Mediterranean20 influence and military access. Although Russia supported the recent
U.N. cease-fire, it has blamed Syrian rebels for escalating the violence and has called on them to
disarm and participate in a regime-led reform process.
The fighting in Syria also reflects the regional tensions between Sunni and Shia Muslims, Arabs
and Kurds, and Arabs and Iranians that have shaped events in Iraq, Lebanon, and Bahrain in
recent years. Gulf Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar have advocated openly for armed
support to Syrian rebels, hoping that the overthrow of the Syrian government would empower
Syrian Sunnis and break Syria’s alliance with their rivals in Iran. On the other side, Iran, in an
attempt to maintain its alliance with its strongest Arab ally, has reportedly given the Asad
government ample support over the past year, including weapons, cash, training, Internet
surveillance equipment, and assistance in evading oil sanctions.21 Hezbollah in Lebanon also may
be aiding the Asad government, and the Shiite-dominated government in Iraq may be purposely
turning a blind eye to Iranian arms shipments crossing its territory or air space into Syria.22
The United States and members of the European Union have placed strong sanctions on the
Syrian government, but have stopped short of offering direct lethal assistance to opposition
groups out of fear that more weaponry would only exacerbate the violence. Overarching concerns
about ongoing nuclear negotiations with Iran and about regional stability also are shaping U.S.
and European calculations. The United States and the European Union have supported the U.N.-
backed Annan plan and have supported the June 30 Contact Group’s call for a transition
government. Both U.S. and European officials have worked together at the United Nations to
compel Syrian cooperation to the Annan plan, though these efforts have been stymied by Russia
and China.
Key international actors involved in the conflict in Syria include the following.
The United Nations
With the United States, NATO, and the Arab League unwilling to militarily intervene in Syria and
unable to force President Asad to step down through diplomatic pressure, many countries have
somewhat skeptically backed a plan brokered by U.N. and Arab League joint Special Envoy Kofi
Annan. The plan seeks to supply humanitarian relief to embattled population centers and establish
a long-term cease-fire, monitored by an international observer mission. These measures would
support the opening of a national dialogue on Syria’s political future. On March 21, 2012, the
Security Council endorsed Annan’s Six-Point-Plan for Syria, which specifically calls for
• A Syrian-led political process to address the aspirations and concerns of the
Syrian people;
20 For over 40 years, Russia has retained access to a port facility in the Syrian coastal city of Tartus. It has leased this
facility from the Syrian government since 1971, and there have been many reports suggesting that this naval facility is
key to extending Russian military influence in the Mediterranean. Other reports suggest that the port facility is sparsely
used and is more a symbol of former Soviet Union military power. See, “How Vital is Syria’s Tartus Port to Russia?”
BBC, June 27, 2012.
21 “Tanker with Syrian oil passes through Egypt’s Suez,” Reuters, April 3, 2012.
22 According to one report, the Iraqi government has refused U.S. requests to stop Iranian cargo flights to Syria, despite
being aware of credible intelligence that the planes are transporting weapons. See, “Iraq resists U.S. prod, lets Iran fly
arms to Syria,” The Washington Times, March 16, 2012.
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• A U.N.-supervised cessation of armed violence in all its forms by all parties to
protect civilians;
• All parties to ensure provision of humanitarian assistance to all areas affected by
the fighting, and to implement a daily two-hour humanitarian pause;
• Authorities to intensify the pace and scale of release of arbitrarily detained
persons;
• Authorities to ensure freedom of movement throughout the country for
journalists; and
• Authorities to respect freedom of association and the right to demonstrate
peacefully.
In mid-April, the Syrian government accepted the cease-fire, but reserved the right to respond to
what it described as “terrorist attacks” and began withdrawing some heavy weapons from urban
conflict zones. On April 14, the U.N. Security Council passed Resolution 2042, which approved
the deployment of a U.N. advance team of 30 military observers to Syria. It also demanded that
the Syrian authorities withdraw security forces from population centers and begin a dialogue with
the opposition. The vote marked the first time since protests began that the Security Council was
united in demanding a halt to the violence. On April 21, the Security Council passed Resolution
2043, which established—for a 90-day period—a United Nations Supervision Mission in Syria
(UNSMIS) with an initial deployment of up to 300 unarmed military observers under the
command of a Chief Military Observer. The resolution also created a civilian team to help
implement elements of the full peace plan, such as the start of a national political dialogue and the
government’s granting of the right to demonstrate.
However, by late May it had become evident that Syrian government forces were not abiding by
the cease-fire and were obstructing U.N. observations. Days after a reported massacre in the
Houla region on May 25 that many in the opposition believe was committed by Shabiha killing
squads, the Free Syrian Army announced that the Asad regime was in violation of the cease-fire
and that FSA forces would resume fighting. U.N. officials attempting to salvage the Annan plan
subsequently warned that Syria was spiraling toward civil war.
Despite the subsequent suspension of the UNSMIS observation mission on June 16, U.N. officials
are still determined to use the Annan plan as the blueprint for addressing the conflict. The United
Nations has sought to establish a “contact group” of various key countries to help pressure both
the Asad government and rebel fighters to cease fighting. Some foreign nations wish to strengthen
the Annan plan by adding punitive measures under Article 41 of the U.N. Charter for non-
compliance. On June 30 in Geneva, Switzerland, the Action Group23 on Syria issued a
communiqué24 endorsing the Annan peace plan and calling for a transitional government of
national unity in Syria that could include members of the opposition and of the current regime.
23 Action Group members include the five permanent members of the Security Council (China, France, Russia, the
United Kingdom and the United States of America) and representatives from Turkey, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, the European
Union, and the Arab League. As part of a compromise over the formation of the group, Iran and Saudi Arabia were
excluded from participating. The Syrian government has accused Saudi Arabia of shipping arms to rebels while the
opposition has accused Iran of supporting the Asad regime.
24 Final communiqué of the Action Group for Syria, June 30, 2012. Available at http://www.unog.ch.
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Russia
As previously mentioned, Russia opposes international military intervention in Syria, fearing that
such a precedent could theoretically be used against it should it need to respond to possible future
domestic insurgencies with violence. In general, Russia also fears the rise of Islamist extremist
movements and such movements’ potential to foster instability in the Russian homeland,
specifically the northern Caucasus. For these reasons and others, Russia has opposed harsh
international sanctions and intervention against the Asad regime. However, Russian officials have
not unequivocally backed Asad. Some experts believe that Russian interests lie in the preservation
of a friendly central government irrespective of its leader. According to Russia’s Deputy Foreign
Minister Gennady Gatilov, “We have never said or insisted that Assad necessarily had to remain
in power at the end of the political process....This issue has to be settled by the Syrians
themselves.” It is unclear how Russian officials plan on preserving their influence inside Syria
should Asad’s position erode. According to one report, “The Russian objective is still to control
regime change without the collapse of the state while preserving Russian interests via a new
government composed of the opposition and a part of the current regime whose hands are not yet
tainted with blood.”25
In the summer of 2012, Russia has continued to obstruct any international attempts to adopt more
punitive measures against the Asad regime while simultaneously playing a more active mediating
role between Asad and the opposition. Russia has supported the Annan plan and was one of the
main forces influencing its adoption. It also has supported the Action Group on Syria’s June 30
Communiqué calling for the formation of a transitional government formed on the basis of mutual
consent. Russia also has been hosting various Syrian opposition parties and in July, it announced
that it would not sign any new weapons deals with the Syrian government until further notice.
According to one observer, “I think they are now waking up to a new reality.... They are realizing
that their analysis was wrong and they have to take a new approach.... The question is, will they
make a stand in Syria to the end?”26 Obama Administration officials have at times tried to
constructively engage Russia on resolving the Syria issue while also attempting to expose
Russian military support to the Asad regime. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton criticized Russia
for transferring repaired military helicopters back to Syrian control, while Russia criticized
reports of third parties arming rebel factions and announced its intention to dispatch two navy
ships and a contingent of marines to defend Russian naval facilities at the Syrian port of Tartus.
25 “Russia Talks to Syrian Dissident, Looks Beyond Assad,” AlMonitor.com, April 30, 2012.
26 “For Putin, Principle vs. Practicality on Syria,” New York Times, July 4, 2012.
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Table 1. Recent Russian Arms Sales to Syria
Estimated Delivery
Type of Equipment
Description
2011
96k9 Pantsyr S1a
Missile Air-Defense Systemb
2011
K-300P Bastion-P
Mobile Coastal Defense Systemc
2011 Yakhont/SS-N-26d
Anti-Ship Cruise Missilee
2011 Buk-2Mf
Medium-Range Defense Missile
System
2010 Kh-31AI/AS-17
Anti-Ship
Missileg
2007 MIG-29SMT/Fulcrum
Fighter
Aircrafth
2006
Igla 9K38
Vehicle-Mounted Low-Altitude SAM
Source: Compiled by Jennifer Vargas. Open Sources cited include Jane’s Defence, Human Rights Watch and
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Notes: Weapon systems use Russian not NATO designations.
a. Alternative spelling: Pantsir-S1E . 36 Pantsyr-S1 mobile air-defense systems were delivered between 2008
and 2011.
b. Approximately 700 surface-to-air missiles intended for use with the Pantsyr mobile air-defense systems
were delivered between 2008 and 2011.
c. 2 Bastion-P mobile coastal defense systems were delivered from 2010 to 2011.
d. Alternative spelling:Yakhont SS-N-26 Strobile.
e. 72 anti-ship cruise missiles were delivered from 2010 to 2011. They were intended for use with the
Bastion-P coastal defense system.
f.
May also be referred to as “ Ural 9K40.”
g. 87 anti-ship missiles were delivered from 2009 to 2010.
h. 24 MIG-29 fighter aircraft were ordered in 2007 (delivery pending).
Turkey
Turkey is another important external player in Syria. Before the Arab Spring, Turkish-Syrian ties
were strong, but over the course of several months in 2011, Turkey gradually turned against the
Asad regime because its leaders perceived that Asad was essentially uncooperative with Turkish
and other international efforts to help broker an end to violence through political reform.27 Turkey
also may have calculated that continued support for a regime viewed throughout the region as
brazenly repressing the will of its people could have harmed its regional prestige. Turkish leaders
27 Like the European Union and others, Turkey has imposed sanctions on Syria. In November 2011, Turkey suspended
the Turkish-Syrian High Level Strategic Cooperation Council; introduced travel bans on several Syrian officials and
businessmen and froze their assets in Turkey. It also canceled the sale of arms and military equipment to the Syrian
military. Turkey suspended its ties with the Central Bank of Syria and the Commercial Bank of Syria, froze the
financial assets of the Syrian Government in Turkey, and abolished a Turkish Ex-imbank loan agreement for the
financing of infrastructure projects in Syria. In March 2012, Turkey recalled its ambassador to Syria and suspended all
diplomatic work and services at the Turkish Embassy in Damascus. See, Open Source Center, “OSC Report: Annan
Plan Dampens Turkey’s Hopes of Syrian Regime Change,” April 30, 2012, Document ID# GMP20120430744001.
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have approached Arab countries in transition by marketing Turkey as a possible model for
democracy and liberal values in the Muslim Middle East.28
Turkey’s leaders say that they do not have sectarian interests in Syria, but many analysts assert
that the stance of Turkey—a Sunni-majority country—is affected by the Asad regime’s
disproportionate targeting of Sunni Muslims.29 Turkey currently hosts the leadership of the
dissident Free Syrian Army as well as over 30,000 Syrian refugees who have fled the fighting,
primarily from Idlib governorate. Turkey hosted a Friends of Syria conference in early April 2012
(see inset) and reportedly favors the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood over other Syrian political
opposition groups.30 Some reports now suggest that Turkey-based opposition fighters may be
receiving weapons and training, allegedly with the support of Turkish officials.31
Some clashes between rebels and regime soldiers have spilled over the Turkish-Syrian border,
leading Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to warn Syria that his government was
considering taking certain steps, including measures they [the Asad government] “don't want to
think about.” As a NATO member, Turkey, if attacked by Syria, could invoke Article 5 of the
NATO treaty, which relates to (but does not require) collective self defense by NATO members,
including the United States. However, Turkey may be unwilling to initiate a military operation
against Syria unless the violence there becomes so destabilizing to Turkey that its leaders feel
compelled to act. A unilateral Turkish invasion of Syria would present extremely complicated
political and military questions regarding the scope and goals of the operation, its motives
(establishing a safe zone/humanitarian corridor or overthrowing the regime), and its justification.
Such an operation could endanger Turkey’s domestic security and economic well-being and
further polarize its politics, while also damaging its regional and international profile. Military
intervention in Syria could necessitate a massive commitment of resources to an open-ended
operation, including a possible long-term occupation by ground forces. Turkey would not want to
bear that burden alone.
Turkey may continue to support Syrian opposition groups, though some secular Syrian dissidents
are wary of Turkish support of the Muslim Brotherhood. Moreover, Turkish leaders fear that the
Syria uprising, no matter how it is resolved, may stir up Kurdish nationalism in Turkey—
potentially a major problem given the significant population of Kurds in Turkey’s southeastern
region and major urban centers (Kurds make up 15%-20% of Turkey’s population).
The Erdogan government has worked on and off over the past nine years to accommodate
Kurdish cultural, political, and economic demands and alleviate separatist sentiment, and it hopes
to resolve Kurds’ grievances further within the next year through a new national constitution. It
would not want to see those efforts permanently unravel should Syria’s Kurds, believed to be
28 See CRS Report R41368, Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations, by Jim Zanotti.
29 In Turkey’s Hatay province bordering Syria, there are hundreds of thousands of Arabic-speaking Alawi Muslims, a
Turkish offshoot Shiite sect similar to the Alawite sect in Syria. Some fear that sectarian conflict in Syria could spill
over into Turkey. Turkey also has millions of Turkish and Kurdish-speaking Alevi Muslims, another distant branch of
Shiism with a mix of Sufi Muslim traditions. See, “Turmoil in Syria: Border Clashes Lift Turk Minority Fears,” Wall
Street Journal Europe, April 10, 2012.
30 Bayram Balci, “Turkey’s Relations with the Syrian Opposition,” Carnegie Endowment, Commentary, April 13,
2012.
31 Michael Weiss, “Syrian rebels say Turkey is arming and training them,” Daily Telegraph Blog (UK), May 22, 2012.
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aided by the Asad regime in response to Turkey’s support of the Syrian opposition, become more
instrumental in rallying Kurdish separatist sentiment in Turkey.32
Finally, if Turkey were to act more aggressively toward Syria and violate its territorial integrity,
President Asad could openly retaliate by hosting fighters from the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’
Party, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization)—as his father did during the 1980s and 1990s—
thus providing an additional safe haven (another is in northern Iraq) from which they could
launch cross-border attacks into Turkey.33 On May 23, Turkish Interior Minister İdris Naim Şahin
said, “Syria is turning a blind eye to terrorist groupings in areas close to the border to put Turkey
in difficulty and perhaps as a way to take revenge on Turkey.”34
Iran
Iran, one of Syria’s few strategic allies, fears that this alliance is likely to dissolve outright if the
predominately Sunni opposition succeeds in changing Syria’s regime. Iran’s relationship with
Syria is key to Iran’s efforts to support Hezbollah in Lebanon. Syria is the transit point for Iranian
weapons shipments to Hezbollah, and both countries see that group as leverage against Israel to
achieve their regional and territorial aims. Iran supplies Syria with weaponry and, according to
one report, Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani, Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps - Qods Force, traveled to Syria in January 2012 and pledged to send more military
aid to Syria.35 As international isolation of Syria has grown since unrest began there, the regime’s
dependency on Iran for diplomatic, economic, and military support has increased. In a recent
interview, President Asad remarked that “We highly appreciate the realistic stance of an important
regional country such as Iran.... As long as Syria’s stability is important for the stability in the
region and the world, wise governments should spare no effort to safeguard Syria’s stability.”36
As the crisis in Syria worsens, some experts question whether Iran will continue to throw its total
support to the Asad regime or instead pursue alternatives that would retain its influence in Syria
even after a change in government. According to Mohammad Saleh Sedghian of the Tehran-based
Arabic Centre for Iranian Studies, “I believe that Iran does not back Assad as much as it backs the
political regime in Syria though there are very strong ties between the Assad family and the
Islamic revolution which goes back to more than 30 years....[Iran would deal with a new leader
on] condition the new government maintains Syria’s constants, which are the backing of
Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad and opposition to Israel.”37 Others analysts disagree. Andrew
Tabler of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy wrote, “Yet no matter how much outside
observers may believe that Iran could best advance its interests by supporting a ‘soft landing’ in
Syria, Tehran’s actual behavior indicates that it supports Assad’s ‘hard landing’ approach—that is,
shooting the population into submission.”38
32 Soner Cagaptay, “Syria and Turkey: The PKK Dimension,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, PolicyWatch
#1919, April 5, 2012.
33 Ibid.
34 Associated Press, “Turkey says Syria is helping PKK terrorists,” May 23, 2012.
35 “News in Depth: Iran’s Spymaster Counters U.S. Moves in the Mideast,” Wall Street Journal, April 5, 2012.
36 “Assad, in Taped TV Interview, Calls Iran a Wise Friend,” New York Times, June 28, 2012.
37 “Syria has Friend indeed in Iran: Analysts,” Agence France Presse, June 13, 2012.
38 Andrew J. Tabler, “Annan’s Syria Action Group A Hopeful Sign,” Policy Alert from the Washington Institute for
Near East Policy, June 27, 2012.
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U.S. Policy Toward Syria
U.S. policy toward Syria since the 1980s has ranged from confrontation and containment to
cautious engagement. Successive Congresses and Administrations have sought to end Syria’s
support for Hezbollah and Palestinian extremists; to encourage peace talks with Israel (which
captured the Golan Heights from Syria in 1967); and to address Syria’s missile stockpiles,
chemical weapons, and clandestine nuclear activities. President Obama and his Administration
attempted limited rapprochement with Syria in 2009 and 2010 without lasting results.
Since the uprising against the Asad regime began in March 2011, the Obama Administration has
pursued the following policies toward Syria:
• Demands for a Political Transition. On August 18, 2011, President Obama
called for the resignation of Syrian President Bashar al Asad, saying “We have
consistently said that President Assad must lead a democratic transition or get out
of the way. He has not led. For the sake of the Syrian people, the time has come
for President Assad to step aside.” The President also added that the United
States will not impose a transition upon Syria, stating that “What the United
States will support is an effort to bring about a Syria that is democratic, just, and
inclusive for all Syrians.... We will support this outcome by pressuring President
Assad to get out of the way of this transition, and standing up for the universal
rights of the Syrian people along with others in the international community.”
• International Diplomacy. U.S. officials have been vocal advocates for U.N.
Security Council action to condemn the Syrian government and end the
bloodshed. Although the United States has closed its embassy in Damascus and
Ambassador Robert Ford has left Syria, U.S. officials are participating in efforts
to improve international policy coordination and support the Syrian people, such
as the Friends of Syria forum that met in Tunis in February, Istanbul in April, and
Paris in July. U.S. officials have cautiously supported the Annan plan at the
United Nations Security Council, though reports suggest that the United States
had sought more robust measures that were obstructed by Russia and China. With
Russia and China continuing to threaten a Security Council veto over any
resolution that they perceive as unduly pressuring or punishing the Asad regime,
the Obama Administration has pointed blame at Russia and China for allowing
regime-instigated violence against Syrian civilians to continue.
• U.S. Sanctions. Since the beginning of the uprising, the Obama Administration
has significantly expanded U.S. sanctions against the regime and its supporters.
The Treasury Department has designated dozens of individuals and entities,
freezing any U.S.-based assets of theirs and denying them access to the U.S.
financial system. For more background on U.S. sanctions, please see Appendix.
• Non-lethal Aid. In 2012, Obama Administration officials have acknowledged
that the United States is providing peaceful elements of the Syrian opposition
with non-lethal assistance, such as medical supplies, night-vision goggles, and
communications equipment. According to one report, such aid includes tools to
circumvent regime Internet censorship, such as anonymizing software and
satellite phones with GPS capabilities.39 A recent Time article reports that the
39 “US Provides Communications Aid for Syria Opponents,” Agence France Presse, June 14, 2012.
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Administration has been providing media-technology training to Syrian
dissidents who have received U.S. State Department-administered Internet
Freedom Grants.40
• Intelligence Coordination. According to open source reports, U.S. intelligence
officers are helping to coordinate the delivery of lethal aid to elements of the
armed Syrian opposition not affiliated with terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda and
its affiliates. One report states that Central Intelligence Agency officers located in
southern Turkey are vetting rebel groups for ties to known terrorist organizations
in order to “learn more about a growing, changing opposition network inside of
Syria and to establish new ties.”41 U.S. intelligence officers, in conjunction with
foreign governments, also may be helping the opposition develop logistical
routes for moving supplies into Syria.42
• Contingency Planning. Though the Administration has not indicated its
readiness to intervene militarily in Syria anytime soon, reports suggest that the
U.S. military has developed contingency plans for various types of interventions.
Reportedly, such planning includes implementing a no-fly zone and protecting
“proliferation-sensitive” sites should Syrian forces protecting them dissipate.43
• Humanitarian Aid. To date, the United States has pledged a total of nearly $52
million in humanitarian aid to international organizations seeking to provide
relief to Syrians. This aid includes $16.5 million to the World Food Program
(WFP); $8.5 million to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
(UNHCR); $14.9 million to non-governmental organizations (NGOs); $8 million
to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC); $3 million to the United
Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East
(UNRWA); $750,000 to the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF); and
$500,000 to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian
Affairs.44 It also includes $12 million in assistance pledged by the United States
to the Group of Friends of the Syrian People.
Issues Before Congress
U.S. officials have described the choices they face with regard to Syria as “extremely
challenging.”45 U.S. concerns about regional security and state-sponsored terrorism are
exacerbated by the potential for inconclusive unrest or drastic political change in Syria. The
continued spillover effects of the violence raise unique questions with regard to Turkey, Lebanon,
Jordan, Iraq, and Israel. Larger refugee flows, sectarian conflict, and transnational violence by
40 “Hillary’s Little Startup: How the U.S. Is Using Technology to Aid Syria’s Rebels,” Time.com, June 13, 2012.
41 The report also noted that Administration was deciding whether to provide rebels with satellite imagery and
intelligence on Syrian troop locations and movements. See, “C.I.A. Said to Aid in Steering Arms to Syrian
Opposition,” New York Times, June 21, 2012.
42 “U. S. Stepping Up Efforts To Organize Syria Rebels,” Wall Street Journal, June 14, 2012.
43 “U.S. Military Completes Planning For Syria,” Security Clearance (CNN.com), June 14, 2012.
44 See, “U.S. Humanitarian Aid Reaching Syria and Neighboring Countries,” U.S. State Department Press Releases
And Documents, June 8, 2012.
45 U.S. Central Command Commander General James Mattis, Statement before Senate Armed Services Committee,
March 6, 2012.
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non-state actors are among the contingencies that concern policy makers in relation to these
countries. A host of concerns stem from reports by U.S. officials that violent extremist groups are
operating in Syria and seeking to benefit from the crisis. The security of Syrian conventional and
chemical weapons stockpiles has already become a regional concern, which would grow if a
security vacuum emerges. Many observers also worry that an escalation in fighting or swift
regime change could generate new pressures on minority groups or lead to wider civil or regional
conflict.
Members of Congress and Administration officials are now considering these issues as they
debate U.S. policy options regarding the Syrian crisis. At the strategic level, the United States has
faced the choice of seeking an immediate end to violence to protect civilians or embracing the
opposition’s calls for regime change in Syria as a guarantee of longer-term stability. The prospect
of weakening Iran’s regional influence also makes regime change attractive to some policy
makers. The Obama Administration and some in Congress have already made the strategic choice
to call for Asad’s resignation and a political transition in Syria. While regime change in Syria may
benefit the United States and its allies by weakening Iran, seeking it also may complicate efforts
to achieve an immediate ceasefire and protect Syrian civilians, because it could encourage Syrian
authorities and their allies to take a zero-sum approach to the crisis. However, the Asad
government’s rule in Syria has long been based on the actual or implied use of violence to
suppress political opposition. As such, seeking an immediate end to the conflict may not defuse
the domestic political crisis or end the threat of violence against Syrian civilians. Key policy
questions at present concern how best to minimize threats to Syrian civilians while achieving
political change conducive to stability in Syria and security in the region.
Humanitarian Conditions and Refugees
In cities and governorates where fighting has been the most intense—namely Homs, Idlib,
Hamah, and Dara’a (see Figure 2)—numerous eyewitness accounts described besieged urban
areas as humanitarian disaster zones, in which residents of entire neighborhoods have periodically
been cut off from food, fuel, medical care, and water. Reports suggest that the government has
deployed snipers, severed utilities and access to civilian areas, and used heavy weapons such as
tanks and artillery to bombard residential areas.
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Figure 3. Registered Syrian Refugees
locations of various refugee populations
Source: Washington Post, July 18, 2012.
As of late June 2012, there were approximately over 90,000 Syrian refugees in neighboring
countries registered with the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
(UNHCR), and tens of thousands of more Syrian refugees who are unregistered. The UNHCR
named Panos Moumtzis as Regional Refugee Coordinator for Syria and has launched an appeal
for $84 million to support operations for Syrian refugees.
Security of Syrian Weapons of Mass Destruction Questioned
U.S. and Israeli officials are publicly communicating their assessments of and concerns about the
extent, security, and potential unrest-related implications of Syria’s reported WMD programs and
stockpiles. U.S. officials have expressed confidence that they have a reliable estimate of the
quantities and locations of Syrian chemical weapons and have indicated that the “extensive
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network” of related facilities is being monitored “very closely” via unspecified means.46 Since
late 2011, named and unnamed Israeli officials have voiced similar concerns about “huge
stockpiles”47 of chemical weapons in Syria and have warned that Israel will consider any
indication that the Asad regime is transferring WMD materials to Hezbollah or other non-state
actors to be an act of war.48
Open source reporting on Syria’s chemical weapons program suggests that nerve gas and mustard
gas production and storage infrastructure is concentrated at facilities in and around Al Safira
(southeast of Aleppo), Damascus, Hamah, Latakia, and Homs.49 Stockpiles also may be dispersed
in other military locations around the country, and some reports suggested that the Syrian
government may have moved or consolidated chemical weapons-related materials in order to
better insure their security. As the recent discovery of undeclared chemical weapons material in
Libya has shown, there are limits to the ability of international intelligence agencies and the
Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) to understand and verify the
extent of sensitive WMD programs, even when dealing with countries that have ratified
international conventions on WMD—which Syria has not.50
The Asad regime likely places greater emphasis on ensuring the loyalty of military units involved
in guarding elements of WMD programs because of the weapons’ relevance as a potential
deterrent against foreign attack. In the wake of any sudden regime collapse, efforts to find and
secure stockpiles would be both a high priority and a difficult challenge. Neighboring intelligence
services in Turkey, Jordan, and Israel may have more insight on the extent of these programs and
related security challenges than the U.S. government. Elements of the Syrian military may be in a
position to aid in securing materials and sites in the event of regime change, but it remains
unclear whether an orderly or chaotic transition situation might ensue and whether such units
would be cooperative or antagonistic toward outsiders. According to some press reports, internal
U.S. government assessments estimate that as many as 75,000 military personnel could be
required to fully secure various WMD-related sites in Syria.51 On July 18, 2012,U.S. Secretary of
Defense Leon Panetta said, “We’ve made very clear to [the Syrian government] that they have a
46 On July 18, 2012, U.S. State Department spokesperson Patrick Ventrell said, “We’re closely monitoring their
proliferation-sensitive materials. We don’t have any indication that those specific munitions are not under Syrian
Government control at this time, but we’re monitoring it very closely.” In February 2012, Assistant Secretary of State
for Verification, Compliance, and Implementation Rose Gottemoeller said, “We have ideas as to quantity. We have
ideas as to where they are.” Quoted in Lachlan Carmichael, “U.S. concerned about Syrian chemical arms, missiles,”
Agence France Presse (AFP), February 15, 2012. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper referred to an
extensive network of Syrian chemical weapons facilities in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee on
February 16, 2012. See also Jay Solomon and Adam Entous, “U.S. Steps Up Watch of Syria Chemical Weapons,” Wall
Street Journal, February 15, 2012; and, Jay Solomon, “U.S., Israel Monitor Suspected Syrian WMD,” Wall Street
Journal, August 27, 2011.
47 Major-General Amir Eshel, head of the Israeli military’s planning division, quoted in “Israel Fears Syrian ‘Chemical,
Biological’ Weapons,” NOW Lebanon, January 17, 2012.
48 U.S. Open Source Center Report GMP20120201736004, “Israeli Official: Chemical Weapons From Syria to
Hizballah ‘Declaration of War,’” Yisra'el Hayom (Tel Aviv), February 1, 2012.
49 Rachel Oswald, “U.S. Watching Syrian Chemical Arms Amid Fear of Attack, Diversion,” Global Security Newswire,
December 5, 2011.
50 Syria has signed but not ratified the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC). Syria has not signed or
ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).
51 Barbara Starr, “Military: Thousands of troops needed to secure Syrian chemical sites,” CNN.com, February 22, 2012.
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responsibility to safeguard their chemical sites and that we will hold them responsible should
anything happen with regards to those sites.”52
Al Qaeda and Violent Extremists: New Opportunities in Syria?
U.S. officials state that the violence and disorder paralyzing Syria appears to be creating
opportunities for Al Qaeda operatives or other violent Islamist extremists to infiltrate the country
and conduct or plan attacks.53 According to Director of National Intelligence James Clapper,
“Sunni extremists” have infiltrated Syrian opposition groups, which may be unaware of the
infiltration. These extremists may or may not be affiliated with Al Qaeda in Iraq, where reports
suggest that violent extremist operations have declined in some areas, a trend which some Iraqi
officials attribute to personnel moving from Iraq to Syria. In July 2012, Iraqi Foreign Minister
stated that “We have solid information and intelligence that members of al-Qaeda terrorist
networks have gone in the other direction, to Syria, to help, to liaise, to carry out terrorist
attacks.... Most of the suicide bombers, foreign fighters, elements of al-Qaeda used to slip into
Iraq from Syria. So they know the routes and the connections.”54 U.S. officials have warned that
there is no readily identifiable successor or alternative to the Asad government and that violent
extremist organizations could exploit a power vacuum in Syria. On May 10, 2012, near-
simultaneous double suicide attacks outside a military intelligence building killed 55 people. A
Sunni Jihadist group calling itself Jabhat al Nusra li ahl al Sham (The Front to Protect the Syrian
People) claimed responsibility for the bombings. The same group has claimed responsibility for
three other attacks in Damascus and Aleppo this year.
Congressional Views of the Syria Conflict
The Syrian government’s continuing use of lethal force against civilians refocused congressional
attention on the basic tenets of U.S. policy toward Syria. This policy has traditionally shifted
between confrontation and limited engagement, and now appears committed—at least
rhetorically—to regime change. Some Members of Congress and nongovernmental observers
argue that recent violence demonstrates the futility of expecting any substantive reform by Syrian
authorities and suggests that U.S. policy should more aggressively move toward confrontation in
pursuit of the stated U.S. goal of regime change. Others have expressed wariness about the
potential implications of regime change for regional security, particularly in light of the delicate
sectarian balance in the Levant and a lack of established U.S. relationships with government and
nongovernment actors in Syria. Proponents and skeptics of regime change have urged a
continuation of efforts to increase multilateral political condemnation of and economic pressure
on the Asad regime, for example through U.N.-backed sanctions or arms embargoes. The
Administration has continued to expand U.S. sanctions on Syria while advocating further
multilateral sanctions.
52 Remarks with United Kingdom Defense Secretary Philip Hammond, July 18, 2012.
53 In April 2012, Abdel Ghani Jawhar, a leader of the Lebanese Sunni fundamentalist terror group Fatah al-Islam, died
in the Syrian city of Qsair. Jawhar, who had recently traveled to Syria from Lebanon, had been preparing an explosive
device to be used against the Syrian army. See, “In Syria, Lebanon’s Most Wanted Sunni Terrorist Blows Himself Up,”
Time.com, April 23, 2012.
54 “Iraq Warns Over Al-Qaeda Flux To Syria,” Financial Times, July 6, 2012.
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Debating Intervention and other Options
It is unclear how the United States or other parties can hasten an end to the violence in Syria. A
commitment of major military and economic resources could prove decisive or could prolong the
confrontation by leading others to offer counter-support for the Asad government. According to a
Pew Research Center for the People & the Press poll released in March, almost two-thirds of
Americans oppose any form of U.S. military intervention in Syria.55 Critics of intervention
highlight the potential risks of becoming engulfed in another Middle Eastern conflict with no
definitive time frame for the duration of U.S. operations. Other challenges could include
uncertainty over the political goals of the opposition movement and understanding what might
follow the Asad regime should it fall. Some U.S. officials believe that military intervention risks
arming or otherwise empowering extremist groups. Some also are concerned about potentially
unleashing a scenario that could jeopardize the Syrian military’s control over large conventional
and unconventional weapons stockpiles, including chemical weapons, surface-to-surface rockets,
and shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles (MANPADs).
Officials may view the Syria conflict as more of a humanitarian problem than as a direct threat to
U.S. security as long as fighting in Syria remains somewhat contained. If fighting were to spill
over into neighboring Turkey, Lebanon, or Jordan on a sustained or widespread basis, this
perception could change rapidly. Violence in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli and in Beirut
in May 2012 amplified fears that Syria’s conflict could lead to sectarian confrontation in
Lebanon. Similarly, the trading of accusations between Turkish and Syrian officials over
relationships with Syrian rebels and Kurdish PKK fighters highlights the danger of cross-border
conflict.
Members of Congress have outlined differing positions on the Syrian crisis, related U.S. interests,
and preferred courses of action. Current debate focuses on the potential risks and benefits of
various humanitarian or military intervention proposals and those of maintaining current
sanctions and diplomacy policies. Some in Congress now argue that the United States should
intervene militarily in the Syrian crisis in order to protect civilians and/or to bring about the stated
U.S. goal of removing President Asad from power. Specific proposals from nongovernmental
observers and Members of Congress variously call for conditionally providing weapons or other
assistance to the armed Syrian opposition, carrying out air strikes to protect safe zones for
civilians or armed groups, and/or establishing corridors to allow the delivery of relief.
Critics of intervention and arms supply proposals highlight potential risks related to arming
opposition forces that are not unified and may include groups with extremist views or individuals
who have committed human rights abuses. Others suggest that the establishment of “safe-havens”
or “no-kill zones” may be viewed by the Asad government as a violation of sovereignty
tantamount to a declaration of war, and thus would require the commitment of air assets and
protective ground forces for an undetermined amount of time. Some organizations argue that
military intervention could jeopardize the delivery of humanitarian relief by conflating relief
operations with the political aims of the opposition.56 Some in Congress oppose offering military
support to opposition groups, but may favor targeting the Syrian government and its supporters
with new U.S. or multilateral sanctions tied to progress toward the ceasefire and negotiated
55 Pew Research Center, “Little Support for U.S. Intervention in Syrian Conflict,” Released: March 15, 2012.
56 For a summary of these views, see Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN), “Briefing: Why humanitarians
wary of ‘humanitarian corridors,’” March 19, 2012.
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solution called for under the U.N.-backed Annan plan. Providing greater humanitarian support to
Syrian civilians through neutral channels also remains an option, but may do little to change basic
conditions in Syria or shape the calculations of combatants. The textbox below summarizes
legislation introduced in the 112th Congress that seeks to address the unrest and conflict in Syria.
Table A-1 in the Appendix summarizes U.S. sanctions activity since the start of the Syria
uprising in March 2011.
Syria Legislation in the 112th Congress
The following legislation introduced in the 112th Congress addresses the current situation in Syria.
Bills
•
H.R. 2105, The Iran, North Korea, and Syria Nonproliferation Reform and Modernization Act of 2011—States
that it shall be U.S. policy to ful y implement and enforce sanctions against Iran, North Korea, and Syria for their
proliferation activities and policies. Would, among other things, prohibit U.S. nuclear cooperation agreements
and related export licenses and transfers of materials, services, and goods with a country that is assisting the
nuclear program of Iran, North Korea, or Syria, or is transferring advanced conventional weapons to such
countries.
•
H.R. 2106, The Syria Freedom Support Act—Would, among other things, sanction the development of
petroleum resources of Syria, the production of refined petroleum products in Syria, and the exportation of
refined petroleum products to Syria.
•
H.R. 5993, The Syria Non-Intervention Act of 2012—Would prohibit the use of funds available to the
Department of Defense or an element of the intelligence community for the purpose of, or which would have
the effect of supporting, directly or indirectly, military or paramilitary operations in Syria by any nation, group,
organization, movement, or individual.
•
S. 1048, The Iran, North Korea, and Syria Sanctions Consolidation Act of 2011—Amends the Iran, North Korea,
and Syria Nonproliferation Act to include in the scope of such act a person that (1) acquired materials mined or
extracted within North Korea’s territory or control; or (2) provided shipping services for the transportation of
goods to or from Iran, North Korea, or Syria relating to such countries’ weapons of mass destruction programs,
support for acts of international terrorism, or human rights abuses. Excludes from such provisions shipping
services for emergency or humanitarian purposes.
•
S. 1472, The Syria Sanctions Act of 2011—Denies companies that conduct business in Syria’s energy sector
(investment, oil purchases, and sale of gasoline) access to U.S. financial institutions and requires federal
contractors to certify that they are not engaged in sanctionable activity.
•
S. 2034, Syria Human Rights Accountability Act of 2012—Imposes sanctions on persons who are responsible for
or complicit in certain human rights abuses. Also prohibits procurement contracts with persons that export
sensitive technology to Syria.
•
S. 2101, Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Human Rights Act of 2012—Imposes, among other things, sanctions
with respect to certain persons who are responsible for or complicit in human rights abuses committed against
citizens of Syria or their family members.
•
S. 2152, Syria Democracy Transition Act of 2012—Imposes, among other things, sanctions on foreign financial
institutions that conduct transactions with the central bank of Syria.
•
S. 2224, To require the President to report to Congress on issues related to Syria—Directs the President to
report to Congress regarding (1) opposition groups operating inside or outside of Syria to oppose the Syrian
government, and (2) the size and security of conventional and non-conventional weapons stockpiles in Syria.
Resolutions
•
H.Res. 296 (S.Res. 180 in the Senate), A Resolution Expressing support for peaceful demonstrations and
universal freedoms in Syria and condemning the human rights violations by the Asad Regime—Among other
things, it urges the “President to continue to work with the European Union, the Government of Turkey, the
Arab League, the Gulf Cooperation Council, and other allies and partners to bring an end to human rights abuses
in Syria, hold the perpetrators accountable, and support the aspirations of the people of Syria.”
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•
H.Res. 632, A Resolution that, among other things, commends the leadership of the Government of Turkey in
calling for an end to the violence in Syria and for its responsiveness to the humanitarian needs of Syrian refugees.
•
H.Res. 687, A Resolution that, among other things, cal s on the United Nations Security Council, based on
evidence that crimes against humanity have been perpetrated by Syrian government forces, to refer the situation
of Syria to the International Criminal Court.
•
S.Res. 370 (H.Res. 549 in the House), calling for democratic change in Syria, would state the Senate’s
condemnation of “ongoing, widespread, and systemic violations of human rights conducted by authorities in
Syria” and calls on Bashar al Asad to step down. The non-binding resolution would urge the President to support
a democratic transition in Syria, establish a Friends of Syria Contact Group, develop a strategy to encourage
further military defections, and “develop a plan to identify weapons stockpiles and prevent the proliferation of
conventional, biological, chemical, and other types of weapons in Syria.”
•
S.Res. 379, A resolution that, among other things, expresses strong disappointment with the Governments of the
Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China for their veto of the United Nations Security Council
resolution condemning Bashar al Asad and the violence in Syria and urges them to reconsider their votes.
•
S.Res. 391 (H.Res. 629 in the House), A resolution that, among other things, cal s on Syria to (1) open the
country to independent and foreign journalists and end its media blackout; and (2) release all detained journalists,
videographers, and bloggers.
•
S.Res. 424, A Resolution that, among other things, supports cal s by Arab leaders to provide the people of Syria
with the means to defend themselves against Bashar al-Assad and his forces, including through the provision of
weapons and other material support, and calls on the President to work closely with regional partners to
implement these efforts effectively; urges the President to take all necessary precautions to ensure that any
support for the Syrian opposition does not benefit individuals in Syria who are aligned with al Qaeda or
associated movements, or who have committed human rights abuses; and affirms that the establishment of safe
havens for people from Syria, as contemplated by governments in the Middle East, would be an important step to
save Syrian lives and to help bring an end to Mr. Assad’s killing of civilians in Syria, and calls on the President to
consult urgently and thoroughly with regional allies on whether, how, and where to create such safe havens.
•
S.Res. 428, A Resolution that, among other things, urges the President to formal y establish the Atrocities
Prevention Board established by Presidential Study Directive-10 in August 2011, and for the Board to provide
recommendations to the President concerning the prevention of mass atrocities in Syria.
•
S.Res. 435, A Resolution that, among other things, strongly urges al Governments, including those that have
provided military and security equipment to the Government of Syria in the past, including the Republic of
Belarus and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, to refrain from providing any additional military or
security assistance to the Government of Syria.
•
S.Res. 494, A Resolution that, among other things, condemns the Government of the Russian Federation for its
longstanding and ongoing support for the criminal regime of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
Amendments
•
H.Amdt. 1131 to H.R. 4310, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2013, an Amendment to
limit the availability of funds for Cooperative Threat Reduction activities with Russia until the Secretary of
Defense can certify that Russia is no longer supporting the Syrian regime and is not providing to Syria, North
Korea, or Iran any equipment or technology that contributes to the development of weapons of mass
destruction.
Appropriations
•
In report language accompanying H.R. 5857, the Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs
Appropriations Act, 2013, appropriators note under the heading “Global and Regional Programs/ Middle East
Response” that “The Committee is troubled by the ongoing violence in Syria and notes that funds under this
heading should continue to be made available to assist the Syrian people. Al funds for Syria are subject to the
notification procedures of the Committees on Appropriations, pursuant to section 7015(f) of this Act.” In report
language accompanying the Senate version of the bill, S. 3241, appropriators recommend $2 million for the
National Endowment for Democracy programs in Syria. According to the report, “The Committee recognizes
the comparative advantages of the NED in the promotion of democracy and human rights abroad, particularly
given its status as an NGO, unparal eled experience in promoting freedom during the cold war, and continued
ability to conduct programs in the most hostile political environments.”
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Iran Sanctions Legislation with Provisions on Syria
•
H.R. 1905, the Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Human Rights Act of 2012, includes Title VII Sanctions with
Respect to Human Rights Abuses in Syria. This section directs the President to identify and impose specified
sanctions on: (1) Syrian government officials or persons acting on behalf of that government who are responsible
for or complicit in the commission of serious human rights abuses against Syrian citizens or their family
members, regardless of whether such abuses occurred in Syria; (2) persons who knowingly transfer or facilitate
the transfer of goods or technologies (weapons, surveillance technology, or technology to restrict free speech or
the flow of information) that are likely to be used by Syria to commit human rights abuses against the Syrian
people; and (3) persons who engage in censorship that prohibits, limits, or penalizes freedom of expression by
Syrian citizens. Underlying the debate over Syria policy is a broader debate about the utility of military
intervention as a means to protect civilians and whether or not such protection should be a consistent tenet of
U.S. foreign policy. In broad terms, this debate reflects differences of opinion between those who embrace the
principle of a so-called “responsibility to protect” and those who argue that such protection, while admirable and
even desirable in some contexts, should not be endorsed in general terms because of the commitments it implies
and the often unpredictable consequences of military intervention. Other broad debates concern the relative
war powers and foreign affairs authorities of Congress and the President. All of these debates emerged during
congressional consideration of the recent U.S. intervention in Libya and are now informed by the outcome of
that conflict and the complexities of its aftermath.
Possible Questions
• What are the ultimate goals of U.S. policy toward Syria? To protect civilians? To
further the opposition cause of removing President Asad from power? Can these
aims be separated in principle? On the ground? What might follow Asad’s
departure? Would a negotiated solution that preserved elements of the current
government be acceptable to the United States? Why or why not?
• How are other countries responding to the crisis? Who is willing and able to
implement various humanitarian or military intervention proposals? On what
authority? With what specific resources or forces, for what period, and at what
cost? How might direct or indirect military intervention affect ongoing relief and
diplomacy initiatives?
• What potential risks and unintended consequences may stem from various
proposals? What are the potential risks and consequences of refusing to
intervene? How will regional security be affected? What contingency planning
has been done to ensure the security of chemical weapons and other weapons
stockpiles in Syria?
Background and Key Developments
Demographic Profile and Political Dynamics57
The Syrian population, like those of several other Middle East countries, includes different ethnic
and religious groups. Under the Asad regime strict political controls have prevented these
differences from playing a divisive role in political or social life. A majority of Syrians, roughly
90% of the population, are ethnic Arabs; however, the country contains small ethnic minorities,
notably Kurds. Of more importance in Syria are religious sectarian differences. In addition to the
57 This material draws from the work of Alfred Prados, former CRS Specialist in Middle East Affairs.
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majority Sunni Muslims, who comprise over 70% of the population, Syria contains several
religious sectarian minorities, including three smaller Muslim sects (Alawites, Druze, and
Ismailis) and several Christian denominations. Despite the secular nature of the ruling Baath
party, religious sects have been important in Syria as symbols of group identity and determinants
of political orientation.
Within ethnic and sectarian communities are important tribal and familial groupings that often
provide the underpinning for political alliances and commercial relationships. Socioeconomic
differences abound among farmers, laborers, middle-class wage earners, public sector employees,
military officials, and the political and commercial elite. Finally, geographic differences and local
attachments divide Syrian society; for example, rivalries between Syria’s two largest cities of
Damascus and Aleppo, differences between rural agricultural communities and urban areas, and
the isolation of Alawite communities beyond Syria’s Mediterranean coast have had effects on
political life. Despite being authoritarian, Syrian leaders have often found it necessary to adopt
policies that accommodate, to some degree, the various power centers within the country’s
diverse population.
The Asad Government and its Supporters
President Bashar al Asad was ushered into power in the wake of his father’s death in 2000, and
was the unopposed candidate of the ruling Baath party for seven-year terms in 2000 and 2007.58
Prior to his time in office, he had no government experience and had trained as an
ophthalmologist. Until 2011, his tenure was characterized by what some observers described as a
“China-style” reform strategy; Asad’s government promoted some economic liberalization while
offering only fleeting political reforms and cracking down on all outspoken or organized
opposition. The Asads sought with some success to attract support from beyond their traditional
bases in the Alawite community and the Baath party. Nevertheless, most key positions,
particularly in the security sector, have remained in Alawite hands.
President Asad’s approach during the uprising has been to offer limited reforms that correspond to
political grievances raised prior to the uprising. These include
• In April 2011, President Asad lifted the formal State of Emergency declaration
that had been in place since 1963. The emergency rule had been used to suppress
domestic dissent and was widely criticized by Syrians and external observers. In
the wake of the decision, the regime continued and expanded the raids, arrests,
and detentions that had been common under the emergency rules, leading to
criticism that the move was cynically designed to weaken public pressure rather
than to implement real change.
• In February 2012, the government held a national referendum on a new
constitution designed to open the political system to competition beyond the
confines of the Baath party. The exercise was widely denounced by the
58 The Syrian Constitution of 1973, as amended in 1984, provided for a republican government consisting of a
president, up to three vice presidents appointed by the president, a cabinet, and a 250-member one-house legislature
elected by adult citizens including women. Under this system, the president has been nominated by the decision-
making branch of the ruling Baath Party, agreed to by the legislature, and proposed to the electorate in a referendum. In
practice, power has remained concentrated in the office of the presidency and key aides, particularly with regard to all
security and defense issues. “Syrians Vote For Assad in Uncontested Referendum,” Associated Press, May 28, 2007.
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opposition. The constitution was approved by 89.4% of voters who cast ballots,
which the government claims was 57.4% of some 14.5 million eligible voters
among Syria’s 23 million people. It limits the president’s tenure to a maximum of
two terms of seven years, but is not applied retroactively, meaning that President
Asad could run for reelection when his current term expires in 2014, and, if re-
elected, he could serve until 2028.
• The new constitution provided the basis for May 2012 parliamentary elections,
the first that were not restricted to the Baath Party and its National Unity List
allies. Syrian officials reported that turnout among eligible voters was 51%.59
However, most opposition groups and figures boycotted the election, and
supporters of President Asad won over 90% of the 250 seats. A handful of
opposition figures were elected, and one new party gained a seat in Aleppo.
The government’s use of force against protestors, armed opposition groups, and civilians has
galvanized some opposition groups’ demands for steps beyond the limited reforms offered to
date—namely for the ouster of Asad and a comprehensive transition to a new political order.
However, the Asad family and the Alawite elite that supports it have shown themselves to be
unwilling to peacefully abdicate power, and may believe they have no alternative but to fight as
long as their command of the military and intelligence apparatus allows.
The Alawite Community
The minority Alawite community has shown few signs of public discord, although some of its
members have joined the opposition.60 Some Alawites may feel caught between the regime’s
demands for loyalty and their fears of retribution from other groups in the event of regime change
or civil war. Many foreign observers are debating the motivations for Alawite loyalty in this
context. Some analysts suggest that fear of the military-intelligence apparatus has kept the
Alawite community politically quiet if not loyal, while others posit that the growing sectarian
nature of the conflict only reinforces confessional loyalties and fears. According to one Syria
analyst, Professor Josh Landis at the University of Oklahoma,
The broader Alawi community is also likely to remain loyal to the regime, even as the
economy deteriorates. Almost all Alawi families have at least one member in the security
forces as well as additional members working in civilian ministries, such as education or
agriculture. Most fear collective punishment for the sins of the Baathist era. Not only do they
assume that they will suffer from wide-scale purges once the opposition wins; many also
suspect that they will face prison or worse.… Many do not expect an orderly transition of
power, just as many remain convinced that a spirit of revenge may guide the opposition,
which has been so badly abused. In short, because the Syrian military remains able and
willing to stand by the president, whether out of loyalty, self-interest or fear, the regime is
likely to endure for some time.61
59 OSC Report GMP20120515693006, “Syrian TV Announces People’s Assembly’s Election Results,” Damascus
Syrian Satellite Television, May 15, 2012.
60 In January 2012, a group of Alawite intellectuals issued a statement urging “Alawite Syrians, religious and ethic
minorities afraid of the consequences of a possible fall of the regime, to participate in efforts to overturn the oppressive
government and participate in the construction of a new Syrian republic based on the rule of law and citizenship.” See,
“Alawite intellectuals reject sectarianism in Syria,” Agence France Presse, January 19, 2012.
61 Landis, “The Syrian Uprising of 2011: Why the Asad Regime Is Likely to Survive to 2013,” Middle East Policy,
January 2012.
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The opposition Syrian National Council (SNC, see below) released a statement in late February
stating that its members “consider members of the Alawite sect to be an essential element of
Syria’s cultural and ethnic fabric. The Alawites remain an important component of Syria, and will
continue to enjoy the same rights as other citizens as we build one nation of Christians, Muslims,
and other sects.”62 Others have pledged that orderly trials and the rule of law will prevail in any
post-conflict setting. However, the opposition leadership’s capacity to ensure that such sentiment
guides its members’ actions is uncertain. According to Landis, “such assurances only go so far in
calming Alawi anxieties.”
Opposition and Armed Groups
Syrian opposition groups have grown more organized as the uprising has unfolded, but they
remain divided over strategy, tactics, coordination, and leadership. During the protest stage of the
uprising, “Local Coordinating Councils” (LCCs) active in many areas inside Syria created an
informal network linking activists around the country. That network withstood persistent
government attacks and formed the basis for the limited national coordination that exists at
present. The LCCs continue to report on developments across the country, organize protests, and
coordinate relief efforts in conflict-affected areas. Nevertheless, as late as February 2012,
Director of National Intelligence James Clapper stated that the Syrian opposition was “not a
national movement” or “a unitary connected opposition force,” describing the opposition as “very
local” with organization “on a community by community basis.” An internal versus external
rivalry also has characterized the development of the opposition, with some internal activists
resisting attempts by expatriates and exiles to assert leadership in the movement.63 Both
dynamics—local organization and internal/external rivalry—could seriously complicate any post-
conflict political settlement.
At present, two opposition coalition groups continue to compete for political leadership.
• The Syrian National Council (SNC) was formally organized in Turkey in
October 2011 and brings together a range of mostly external activists, consisting
of members of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood,64 secular elites, intellectuals, and
independents. The Council has a general 310-person body and an executive
committee made up of eight members.65 Abdulbaset Sieda replaced Burhan
Ghalioun as chairman of the SNC in mid-2012.66 The February 2012 “Friends of
Syria” conference in Tunis referred to the SNC “a legitimate representative of
62 SNC Press Release, “SNC Extends Hand to Alawite Community in Syria,” February 26, 2012.
63 According to one report: “The picture that emerges—partial and anecdotal—is of a highly decentralized, proudly
local movement, distrustful of the expatriate opposition. Many activists said they wanted both Sunni empowerment and
equal rights for all. If there was unanimity, it was in the fierce conviction that future leaders should come from their
own ... not from exile groups, like the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood and secular movements.” Anne Barnard and Hwaida
Saad, “Though Disparate, Syria Rebels Tenacious Against Crackdown,” New York Times, May 9, 2012
64 The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood has remained in exile since the Hama massacre of 1982. Since then, membership in
the group has been, according to Syrian law, a capital offense. Within the Syrian National Council, members of the
Brotherhood hold 25% of the seats. Some Syrian opposition activists have accused the Brotherhood of funding its own
militias on the ground. See, Yezid Sayigh, “The Coming Tests of the Syrian Opposition,” Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, April 19, 2012.
65 See the SNC website at http://www.syriancouncil.org/en/structure/executive-commitee.html.
66 Ghalioun’s reelection to a third term as leader of the SNC was criticized by some opposition members, and he
resigned. He remains a member of the executive committee.
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Syrians seeking peaceful democratic change.” The international community has
been frustrated by infighting within the SNC, its inability to attract more
members of Syrian minority communities (especially Christians, Kurds, and
Alawites), its inability to convince rival opposition groups to merge with it, and
its perceived lack of legitimacy among Syrian protestors on the ground who
remain subject to regime violence. In March 2012, several activists resigned from
the SNC in protest of its decision making and a perceived lack of effectiveness.
Unlike other opposition coalitions, the SNC has openly called for international
military intervention in the crisis, which led other Syrians to allege that the SNC
is a tool of regional powers, such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Although
the SNC had resisted calls to turn the protest movement into an armed struggle, it
has endorsed the imposition of a no-fly zone; the establishment of humanitarian
safe corridors and buffer zones; and “an organized and speedy operation to arm
the Free Syrian Army.”
• The National Coordination Body for Democratic Change (NCB) was formed
in the summer of 2011 and is a Syria-based alliance of leftist groups, Kurdish
activists, and individuals associated with the 2005 Damascus Declaration on
political reform. The NCB has stated a willingness to negotiate with the Asad
regime (predicated on an end to the use of force against civilians) and opposes
foreign intervention. The SNC has criticized the NCB for these positions, and
repeated attempts to merge the two coalitions have failed. According to one
report, “The group is well positioned to play an important role going forward,
since it has also invested in keeping channels of communication open with
Russia, visiting Moscow as recently as April 17.”67 The NCB is also referred to in
some press reports as the Syrian National Coordination Committee for
Democratic Change.
As the unrest has moved toward greater violence and confrontation, the focus of international
attention has shifted to armed opposition activists. Press coverage and anecdotal reports suggest
that thousands of mostly Sunni military soldiers have defected or deserted rather than continue
following orders to enforce the crackdown. Not all of these defectors have taken up arms. Several
Syrian general staff officers have defected to opposition groups based in Turkey, and some are
now playing a leadership role in the armed campaign against the Syrian government.68 On the
ground, many volunteer fighters have organized themselves into neighborhood militias and
nominally claim allegiance to the Free Syrian Army (FSA). However, it remains unclear whether
FSA commanders outside Syria are able to command the loyalty of the many disparate and local
resistance groups that have emerged.
• The Free Syrian Army (FSA) consists of lightly armed, dissident military
personnel and officers who have defected and are targeting government security
forces in armed attacks. It also represents a broader coalition of locally organized
volunteer fighting groups who seek to affiliate themselves with the national
opposition movement but lack integrated command structure, logistics, and
intelligence.69 FSA forces are rumored to number in the low hundreds with
67 Yezid Sayigh, op.cit.
68 “Syrian Armed Forces Desertion Said to Surge to 60,000,” Bloomberg, March 15, 2012.
69 Director of National Intelligence James Clapper recently referred to the FSA as “a blanket, generic name that’s sort
of applied to the collection of oppositionists.” Open source reporting based on interviews with Syrian opposition
(continued...)
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possibly thousands of loosely affiliated supporters. Precise and verifiable
estimates are not available. To date, the FSA’s equipment has been mostly locally
financed with fighters buying small arms and ammunition on the black market,
and local supporters selling household valuables to raise money for the
rebellion.70 The FSA is nominally headed by a former colonel in the Syrian Air
Force, Riyad al Asad (not related to the president), who defected to the
opposition in mid-March 2011. FSA’s military leadership is based in Turkey’s
Hatay province, where Turkish forces maintain tight control over any cross-
border activities for fear of Syrian retribution. Some observers believe that if
FSA fighters were trained and equipped with more sophisticated equipment
(portable and guided anti-tank rockets, Stinger missiles), they would prove to be
a more formidable opponent against more heavily equipped pro-government
forces.71
The armed resistance and the political opposition have had an ambiguous relationship to date.
The Asad government’s assault on locally organized volunteers led to angry recriminations by
some activists inside Syria that external opposition leaders had abandoned them or were not
delivering on promised assistance.72 While the SNC has established a Military Bureau to
coordinate with and among different armed groups, some experts doubt whether either element of
the opposition exerts true authority over the other.73 Strong differences of opinion over the
desirability of outside support persist, and some armed groups may resist accepting political
leadership from Islamist members of the political opposition and vice versa. This uncertainty
complicates efforts by third parties to identify potential partners and plan a way forward.
Non-Alawite Minority Communities
The Kurds. Although there are Kurdish members within the opposition coalitions noted above,
by and large Kurdish areas in northeastern Syria have remained fairly quiet amidst the unrest.
Since its independence in 1946, Syria has defined itself as an Arab state, despite the presence of a
large, ethnically distinct Kurdish population in Damascus and in several non-contiguous areas
(...continued)
activists, including FSA commanders and FSA affiliates, suggests that no central FSA command structure exists that
encompasses the majority of armed groups in Syria, although the mostly Sunni, locally organized volunteers in Syria’s
armed resistance share similar immediate goals of ending the Asad government’s assaults on them and civilians. See
Emile Hokayem, IISS-US Roundtable Discussion—The Syrian Uprising Seen From The Arab World, January 24,
2012; and, Al Jazeera English, “Q&A: Nir Rosen on Syria’s armed opposition,” February 13, 2012.
70 Derek Henry Flood, “Inside the Free Syrian Army,” Jane’s Islamic Affairs Analyst, February 24, 2012.
71 One local militia calling itself the Farouq Brigade and fighting under the broader banner of the Free Syrian Army
claims that it has been more effective in engaging government forces. According to a report, “What the Farouq fighters
have found is that the Syrian army, as a force built for a potential conflict with Israel, is poorly equipped for the type of
asymmetrical combat the guerillas engage in. That allows the guerillas to inflict heavy casualties on the military when
the two sides engage in close combat. It is one reason the Syrian military prefers launching artillery attacks on rebel-
held cities from long distances.” See, “Rare inside view of Syria’s rebels finds a force vowing to fight on,” McClatchy,
April 23, 2012.
72 In Homs, where armed fighters had been under government siege for almost a month, one local commander of Homs
Revolutionary Committee appeared in a YouTube video angrily criticizing the SNC for its insufficient support saying,
“We gave you legitimacy, and we can take it away.”
73 For example, Peter Harling, a Syria analyst for the International Crisis Group, has said, “I don't think the Syrian
National Council has much leverage over the Free Syrian Army, and I don't think the Free Syrian Army has much
leverage itself over what is happening on the ground.”
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along Syria’s border with Turkey and Iraq. Syria’s Kurds are the largest distinct ethnic/linguistic
minority in Syria (7%-10% of the total population). They inhabit agriculturally rich areas, which
also contain several of Syria’s most valuable oil and natural gas fields. In an attempt to curb
Kurdish demands for greater autonomy, successive Syrian governments since the 1950s have
periodically arrested Kurdish political leaders and have co-opted certain Kurdish tribal leaders.
They also have confiscated some Kurdish land and redistributed it to Syrian Arabs to try to
“Arabize” Kurdish regions.
For the past year, the regime has resorted to these divide-and-rule tactics to keep Kurdish areas
under control. According to Denise Natali, an expert on Kurdish politics at National Defense
University, “to repress the Kurds violently would be another nail in the coffin.... It is one of the
communities the regime is trying to co-opt.”74 Despite their problems under the Asad regime,
Kurds are wary of supporting a potential Sunni Arab resistance movement that, should it come to
power, may be no less hostile to Kurdish aspirations than the Alawite-led Asad government.
According to Mahmoud Othman, a Kurdish member of the Iraqi Parliament, ‘‘the Kurds in Syria
have their own problems.... They are against the Asad regime. They have been for years. They
have no rights. But they are not sure about which people will come after.’’75
In May 2012, a delegation from the Syrian-Kurdish National Council (KNC), an umbrella
organization consisting of several smaller Kurdish political parties, traveled to the United States
for meetings with the U.S. State Department. The KNC has called for the creation of an
autonomous Kurdish region within a federated Syria, a position that has put it at odds with the
main Syrian opposition exile group, the Syrian National Council. It also has demanded
compensation for historical Kurdish suffering and the removal of the word ‘‘Arab’’ from Syria’s
official name: the Syrian Arab Republic.
The Christian Community. Syria’s various Christian communities fear that the uprising will
lead to a sectarian civil war and that they could be subjected to violent repression, just as Islamist
extremist groups have targeted Iraqi Christians since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. Syria’s
Christians, consisting primarily of Greek Orthodox along with some smaller sects, comprise
approximately 10% of the Syrian population. Most Syrian Christians speak Arabic and
traditionally have identified with Arab nationalist movements, which they see as an alternative to
Islamic fundamentalism. At the same time, like other Christians in the Middle East, many Syrian
Christians feel some affinity for Europe and the United States on religious and cultural grounds.
Christians have been well represented in Syrian government organizations under the Asad regime.
At present, Christians appear to be taking a cautious approach to the uprising. While some have
remained supportive of the Asad regime and grown more so as sectarian violence has increased,
others are rumored to be assisting opposition movements, including local armed elements and the
Free Syrian Army. Syria’s Greek Orthodox Patriarch, Ignatius IV Hazim, patriarch of Antioch and
All the East, has taken a cautious approach, recently arguing that “the harmful effects of any
foreign intervention in our affairs would touch Christians and Muslims alike.”76
74 “Syrian Kurds seen as revolt’s wild card,” Washington Post, March 8, 2012.
75 “Syrian Kurds, facing tough options, flee into Iraq,” International Herald Tribune, March 10, 2012.
76 “Syria’s Greek patriarch opposes foreign intervention,” Agence France Presse, March 1, 2012.
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Syria’s Economy and Sanctions
Reports indicate that the Syrian economy and national budget are suffering due to a steep drop in
oil exports resulting from sanctions; over a year of domestic unrest and the loss of tourism
revenues; and new social and military spending aimed at quelling public anger. Estimates vary on
the degree of contraction in 2011, ranging between 5% and 15%.77 The Economist Intelligence
Unit predicts that the Syrian economy will contract by 8.1% in 2012.
Urban areas are now experiencing daily power outages and fuel shortages;78 inflation is rising79;
and the value of the Syrian pound has plummeted on the black market (from 54 pounds against
the dollar to over 103 pounds as of early March), forcing the government to spend resources
propping it up. Syria’s stock market is down 40% since the unrest began in March 2011. Foreign
exchange reserves held by the Syrian Central Bank have reportedly fallen from $18 billion in the
fall of 2011 to between $5 billion and $10 billion, and now lose about $1 billion a month.80 With
the loss of European export markets due to a European Union oil import ban, Syria has been
denied a major source of revenue and hard currency (25%-30% of total government revenue or
$4 billion a year). According to Syrian Oil Minister Sufian Alao, sanctions on Syrian oil exports
have cost the country $4 billion.
Before sanctions, the main buyers of approximately 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) of exported
Syrian oil were Italy, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Austria, Spain, and Turkey. Syria
produces about 380,000 bpd total, though 2011 total production fell to around 320,000 bpd due to
sanctions.81 Foreign oil companies that have suspended operations in Syria include Tatneft
(Russia), Royal Dutch/Shell Group, Total (France), Gulfsands (UK), Suncor (Canada), and INA
(Croatia). In March 2012, Syrian officials announced that the Russian energy company Gazprom
would take over INA’s oil and gas operations in Syria. The operating status of two Chinese
companies with investments in Syria, CNPC and Sinopec, is unknown.82 Western countries also
have banned new investment in Syria’s oil and gas sector. Sanctions are having an impact on
other aspects of Syria’s energy sector as well, including financing and shipping.83 European
sanctions do not ban the export of liquid petroleum gas (LPG) to Syria, since it is widely used by
ordinary households for heating and cooking.
Since new sanctions were enacted, many analysts have speculated about whether new investors
and new foreign markets would arise for Syrian oil exports, albeit at lower prices due to sanctions
77 “Cracks Widen in Syrian Economy,” IPS, January 24, 2012.
78 In May 2012, the Syrian government raised the price of subsidized fuel by 25%, just weeks after doubling electricity
prices.
79 Inflation may be as high as 30% in Syria. According to a June 2012 report, the Syrian government has recently
circulated new currency printed in Russia in order to pay public sector salaries amidst a ballooning fiscal deficit. See,
“Syria Prints New Money as Deficit Grows-Bankers,” Reuters, June 13, 2012.
80 “Syria Running out of Cash as Sanctions take toll, but Assad avoids Economic Pain,” Washington Post, April 24,
2012.
81 Though oil production declined in 2011, natural gas production increased by 8% due to investment in gas
infrastructure made before unrest began.
82 “Syria: Voting with their feet,” Economist Intelligence Unit—Business Middle East, January 16, 2012.
83 According to one oil products trader based in the Middle East, “I don't do Syria anymore. Sanctions appeared
tougher, so I gave up.... The problem is getting a bank to finance it and a ship owner to go there.” “Syria Cancels Fuel
Export Tender, Sanctions Deter,” Reuters, November 3, 2011.
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and increased shipping, insurance, and financing costs. Some experts believe that both India and
China are in a position to refine the heavy crude that Syria exports. However, others assert that
some Asian buyers would find the prospect of purchasing Syrian oil too risky or politically
problematic. In recent months, Venezuela has supplied Syria with at least three shipments of
diesel fuel in exchange for Syrian naphtha, a refined petroleum product. According to Venezuelan
Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez, “We have a high level of cooperation with Syria, a besieged
nation, whom the transnational interests want to bring down.” Other reports suggest that Russia
and Iran are exporting gasoil and diesel to Syria.84 Syrian officials also claim to be negotiating
fuel import deals with Russia, Iran, and Algeria.85
84 “How Russia, Iran keep fuel flowing to Syria,” Reuters, April 26, 2012.
85 “Syria, Russia Negotiating Long-Term Gas, Diesel Fuel Contracts,” ITAR-TASS World Service, May 25, 2012.
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Appendix. U.S. Sanctions and Legislation
Overview
At present, a variety of legislative provisions and executive directives prohibit U.S. aid to Syria
and restrict bilateral trade. Syria remains a U.S.-designated State Sponsor of Terrorism and is
therefore subject to a number of general U.S. sanctions. Syria was placed on the State
Department’s State Sponsors of Terrorism List in 1979. Moreover, between 2003 and 2006
Congress passed legislation and President Bush issued new executive orders that expanded U.S.
sanctions specifically on Syria.
• The table below reviews sanctions introduced since early 2011 in response to
Syria’s uprising.
• Syria-specific sanctions and general sanctions applicable to Syria are also
summarized below.
Background on U.S. Assistance to Syria and Restrictions
Because of a number of legal restrictions and U.S. sanctions, many resulting from Syria’s
designation as a country supportive of international terrorism, Syria is no longer eligible to
receive U.S. foreign assistance. Between 1950 and 1981, the United States provided a total of
$627.4 million in aid to Syria: $34.0 million in development assistance, $438.0 million in
economic support, and $155.4 million in food assistance. Most of this aid was provided during a
brief warming trend in bilateral relations between 1974 and 1979. Significant projects funded
with U.S. assistance included water supply, irrigation, rural roads and electrification, and health
and agricultural research. No aid has been provided to Syria since 1981, when the last aid
programs were closed out. In the event of regime change, the Obama Administration and
Congress would need to reevaluate any successor government’s policies with regard to support
for international terrorism in order to determine Syria’s potential eligibility for U.S. assistance.
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Table A-1. U.S. Sanctions Against Syria in 2011-2012
(Implemented by Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control [OFAC])
Date
Sanctioned Individual/Entity
Sanction or Related Activity Description
July 18,
Omran Ahed Al-Zoubi, Minister of Information, ,
Added to OFAC’s Specially Designated Nationals
2012
Subhi Ahmad Al-Abdullah, Minister of Agriculture
(SDN) List
and Agrarian Reform, Safwan Al-Assaf, Minister of
Housing and Urban Development, Wael Nader Al-
Halqi, Minister of Health, Mohammad Al-Jleilati,
Minister of Finance, Hala Al Nasser, Minister of
Tourism, Mohammad Abdul-Sattar Al-Sayyed,
Minister of Religious Endowments, Yasser Al-Sibaei,
Minister of Public Works, Hazwan Al Wazz,
Minister of Education, Mansour Fadlal ah Azzam,
Minister of Presidential Affairs, Nazira Farah Sarkis,
Minister of State for Environmental Affairs, Hussein
Mahmoud Farzat, Minister of State, Omar Ibrahim
Ghalawanji, Deputy Prime Minister for Services
Affairs, Radwan Habib, Minister of Justice, Ali
Haidar, Minister of State for National
Reconciliation Affairs, Bassam Hanna, Minister of
Water Resources, Riyad Hijab, Prime Minister,
Mahmoud Ibrahim Said, Minister of Transport,
Qadri Jamil, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic
Affairs, Imad Mohammad Deeb Khamis, Minister of
Electricity, Adib Mayaleh, Governor of Central
Bank of Syria, Jassim Mohammad Zakarya, Minister
of Social Affairs and Labor, Lubanah Mshaweh,
Minister of Culture, Said Mu’zi Hneidi, Minister of
Oil and Mineral Resources, Imad Abdul-Ghani
Sabouni, Minister of Communications and
Technology, Fuad Shukri Kurdi, Minister of
Industry, Joseph Jurji Sweid, Minister of State,
Mohammad Yehya Moal a, Minister of Higher
Education, Mohammad Zafer Mihbek, Minister of
Economy and Foreign Trade
Business Lab, Drex Technologies(Virgin Islands)a,
Handasieh, Industrial Solutions, Mechanical
Construction Factory, Syronics
May 30,
Syria International Islamic Bank
Added to OFAC’s Special y Designated Nationals
2012
(SDN) List
May 1, 2012
Foreign Persons/Foreign Entities that have violated,
Executive Order 13608—Authorizes the
attempted to violate, conspired to violate, or
Department of the Treasury to publicly identify
caused a violation of U.S. sanctions against Iran or
foreign individuals and entities that have violated
Syria, or that have facilitated deceptive transactions
U.S. sanctions against Iran and Syria and generally
for persons subject to U.S. sanctions concerning
bars their access to U.S. financial and commercial
Syria or Iran.
systems.
April 27,
OFAC issued General License 4A, which
2012
authorizes the exports or re-exports to Syria of
items licensed or otherwise authorized by the
Department of Commerce and of exports and
reexports of certain services. General License 4A
replaces and supersedes General License 4, dated
August 18, 2011.
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Date
Sanctioned Individual/Entity
Sanction or Related Activity Description
April 23,
Governments of Syria and Iran, Ali Mamluk
Executive Order 13606—Blocks the property
2012
(Director of the Syrian General Intelligence
and suspends entry into the United States of
Directorate), Syrian General Intelligence
certain persons with respect to grave human
Directorate, Syriatel, Islamic Revolutionary Guard
rights abuses by the governments of Iran and
Corps, Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security,
Syria via information technology.
Law Enforcement Forces of the Islamic Republic of
Iran, Datak Telecom
March 30,
General Munir Adanov (Deputy Chief of General
Added to OFAC’s Specially Designated Nationals
2012
Staff of the Syrian Army), General Dawood Rajiha
(SDN) List
(Minister of Defense)
March 5,
General Organization of Radio and TV
Added to OFAC’s Special y Designated Nationals
2012
(SDN) List
February 23,
OFAC issued General License 15 related to Syria
2012
to authorize transactions in connection with
patent, trademark, copyright, or other
intel ectual property protection that would
otherwise be prohibited by Executive Order
13582.
February 16, Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security
Added to OFAC’s Special y Designated Nationals
2012
(SDN) List
December
Muhammad Makhluf, Military Housing
Added to OFAC’s Specially Designated Nationals
1, 2011
Establishment, Real Estate Bank
(SDN) List
October 3,
OFAC issued two general licenses related to
2011
Syria to authorize payments in connection with
overflight or emergency landing and transactions
with respect to telecommunications
September
OFAC issued a General License related to Syria
27, 2011
to authorize third-country diplomatic and
consular funds transfers and to authorize certain
services in support of nongovernmental
organizations’ activities.
September
OFAC issued four general licenses related to
9, 2011
Syria to authorize wind down transactions,
certain official activities of international
organizations, incidental transactions related to
U.S. persons residing in Syria and operation of
accounts.
August 30,
Walid Mouallem (Foreign Minister), Ali Abdul
Added to OFAC’s Specially Designated Nationals
2011
Karim Ali (Syrian Ambassador to Lebanon),
(SDN) List
Bouthaina Shaaban (Advisor to the President)
August 18,
Government of Syria
Executive Order 13582—Freezes al assets of the
2011
Government of Syria, prohibits U.S. persons from
engaging in any transaction involving the
Government of Syria, bans U.S. imports of
Syrian-origin petroleum or petroleum products,
prohibits U.S. persons from having any dealings in
or related to Syria’s petroleum or petroleum
products, and prohibits U.S. persons from
operating or investing in Syria.
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Date
Sanctioned Individual/Entity
Sanction or Related Activity Description
August 18,
General Petroleum Corporation, Syrian Company
Added to OFAC’s SDN List
2011
For Oil Transport, Syrian Gas Company, Syrian
Petroleum Company, Sytrol
August 10,
Commercial Bank of Syria and its Lebanon-based
Added to OFAC’s SDN List
2011
subsidiary, Syrian Lebanese Commercial Bank,
Syriatel, the country’s main mobile phone operator
August 4,
Muhammad Hamsho (businessman with ties to
Added to OFAC’s SDN List
2011
Asad family), Hamsho International Group
June 29,
Jamil Hassan (Head of Air Force Intelligence),
Added to OFAC’s SDN List
2011
Political Security Directorate (PSD, domestic
intelligence)
May 18,
President Bashar al Asad, Farouk al Shara (vice
Executive Order 13573 adds listed individuals
2011
president), Adel Safar (prime minister), Mohammad
and entities to OFAC’s SDN List
Ibrahim al Shaar (minister of the interior), Ali Habib
Mahmoud (minister of defense), Abdul Fatah
Qudsiya (head of Syrian military intelligence),
Mohammed Dib Zaitoun (director of political
security directorate), Nabil Rafik al Kuzbari,
General Mohsen Chizari (Commander of Iran
Revolutionary Guard Corp Qods Force suspected
of human rights abuses in Syria), Al Mashreq
Investment Fund, Bena Properties, Cham Holding,
Syrian Air Force Intelligence, Syrian Military
Intelligence, Syrian National Security Bureau
April 29,
Maher al Asad, Ali Mamluk (director of the Syrian
Executive Order 13572 adds listed individuals
2011
General Intelligence Directorate GID), Atif Najib
and entities to OFAC’s SDN List
(former head of the Syrian Political Security
Directorate for Dara'a province and the president’s
cousin). the General Intelligence Directorate, and
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – Quds
Force (for allegedly assisting Syria in its crackdown)
Source: U.S. Treasury Department.
Notes: As part of its enforcement efforts, OFAC publishes a list of individuals and companies owned or
controlled by, or acting for or on behalf of, targeted countries. It also lists individuals, groups, and entities, such
as terrorists and narcotics traffickers designated under programs that are not country-specific. Col ectively, such
individuals and companies are called Specially Designated Nationals or SDNs. Their assets are blocked and U.S.
persons are generally prohibited from dealing with them.
a. According to the Treasury Department, Drex Technologies, “belongs to Assad’s billionaire cousin and
government insider, Rami Makhluf, who was designated by the Treasury Department in February 2008
under E.O. 13460 for improperly benefiting from and aiding the public corruption of Syrian regime officials.
Drex Technologies was designated pursuant to E.O. 13572, which authorizes the United States to sanction
any entities owned or control ed by persons designated under E.O. 13460.”
Specific Sanctions Against Syria
Specific U.S. sanctions levied against Syria fall into three main categories: (1) sanctions resulting
from the passage of the 2003 Syria Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Act (SALSA) that,
among other things, prohibit most U.S. exports to Syria; (2) sanctions imposed by executive order
from the President that specifically deny certain Syrian citizens and entities access to the U.S.
financial system due to their participation in proliferation of weapons of mass destruction,
association with Al Qaeda, the Taliban, or Osama bin Laden; or destabilizing activities in Iraq and
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Lebanon; and (3) sanctions resulting from the USA PATRIOT Act levied specifically against the
Commercial Bank of Syria in 2006.
The 2003 Syria Accountability Act
On December 12, 2003, President Bush signed H.R. 1828, the Syria Accountability and Lebanese
Sovereignty Restoration Act into law, as P.L. 108-175. This law requires the President to impose
penalties on Syria unless it ceases support for international terrorist groups, ends its occupation of
Lebanon, ceases the development of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and has ceased
supporting or facilitating terrorist activity in Iraq (§§5(a) and 5(d)). Sanctions include bans on the
export of military items (already banned under other legislation, see above)86 and of dual use
items (items with both civil and military applications) to Syria (§5(a)(1)). In addition, the
President is required to impose two or more sanctions from a menu of six:
• a ban on all exports to Syria except food and medicine;
• a ban on U.S. businesses operating or investing in Syria;
• a ban on landing in or overflight of the United States by Syrian aircraft;
• reduction of diplomatic contacts with Syria;
• restrictions on travel by Syrian diplomats in the United States; and
• blocking of transactions in Syrian property (§5(a)(2)).
Implementation
On May 11, 2004, President Bush issued Executive Order 13338, implementing the provisions of
P.L. 108-175, including the bans on munitions and dual use items (§5(a)(1)) and two sanctions
from the menu of six listed in Section 5(a)(2). The two sanctions he chose were the ban on
exports to Syria other than food and medicine (§5(a)(2)(A) and the ban on Syrian aircraft landing
in or overflying the United States (§5(a)(2)(D). In issuing his executive order, the President stated
that Syria has failed to take significant, concrete steps to address the concerns that led to the
enactment of the Syria Accountability Act. The President also imposed two additional sanctions
based on other legislation.
• Under Section 311 of the USA PATRIOT Act, he instructed the Treasury
Department to prepare a rule requiring U.S. financial institutions to sever
correspondent accounts with the Commercial Bank of Syria because of money
laundering concerns.
• Under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), he issued
instructions to freeze assets of certain Syrian individuals and government entities
involved in supporting policies inimical to the United States.
86 Syria’s inclusion on the State Sponsors of Terrorism List as well as SALSA requires the President to restrict the
export of any items to Syria that appear on the U.S. Munitions List (weapons, ammunition) or Commerce Control List
(dual-use items).
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Waivers
In the executive order and in an accompanying letter to Congress, President Bush cited the waiver
authority contained in Section 5(b) of the Syria Accountability Act and stated that he wished to
issue the following waivers on grounds of national security:
Regarding Section 5(a)(1) and 5(a)(2)(A): The following exports are permitted: products in
support of activities of the U.S. government; medicines otherwise banned because of
potential dual use; aircraft parts necessary for flight safety; informational materials;
telecommunications equipment to promote free flow of information; certain software and
technology; products in support of U.N. operations; and certain exports of a temporary
nature.87
Regarding Section 5(a)(2)(D): The following operations are permitted: takeoff/landing of
Syrian aircraft chartered to transport Syrian officials on official business to the United States;
takeoff/landing for non-traffic and non-scheduled stops; takeoff/landing associated with an
emergency; and overflights of U.S. territory.
Targeted Financial Sanctions
Since the initial implementation of the Syria Accountability Act (in Executive Order 13338 dated
May 2004), the President has repeatedly taken action to sanction individual members of the Asad
regime’s inner circle.88 E.O. 13338 declared a national emergency with respect to Syria and
authorized the Secretary of the Treasury to block the property of individual Syrians. Based on
Section 202(d) of the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1622(d)), the President has annually
extended his authority to block the property of individual Syrians (latest on April 29, 2011).
When issuing each extension, the President has noted that the actions and policies of the
government of Syria continued to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat.89
The following individuals and entities have been targeted by the U.S. Treasury Department
(Office of Foreign Assets Control or OFAC):
• On June 30, 2005, the U.S. Treasury Department designated two senior Syrian
officials involved in Lebanon affairs, Syria’s then-interior minister and its head
of military intelligence in Lebanon (respectively, the late General Kanaan and
General Ghazali), as Specially Designated Nationals, thereby freezing any assets
they may have in the United States and banning any U.S. persons, including U.S.
87 According to U.S. regulations, any product that contains more than 10% de minimis U.S.-origin content, regardless
of where it is made, is not allowed to be exported to Syria. For U.S. commercial licensing prohibitions on exports and
re-exports to Syria, see 15 C.F.R. pt. 736 Supp No. 1. The Department of Commerce reviews license applications on a
case-by-case basis for exports or re-exports to Syria under a general policy of denial. For a description of items that do
not require export licenses, see, Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS), U.S. Department of Commerce, Implementation
of the Syria Accountability Act, available at http://www.bis.doc.gov/licensing/syriaimplementationmay14_04.htm.
88 According to the original text of E.O. 13338, the President’s authority to declare a national emergency authorizing
the blocking of property of certain persons and prohibiting the exportation or re-exportation of certain goods to Syria is
based on “The Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the International Emergency
Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701 et seq.) (IEEPA), the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.)
(NEA), the Syria Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act of 2003, P.L. 108-175 (SAA), and Section
301 of Title 3, United States Code.” available at http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Documents/
13338.pdf.
89 The President last extended the State of Emergency on April 29, 2011.
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financial institutions outside of the United States, from conducting transactions
with them.90 Kanaan allegedly committed suicide in October 2005, though some
have speculated that he may have been murdered.
• On January 18, 2006, U.S. Treasury Department took the same actions against
the President’s brother-in-law, Assef Shawkat, chief of military intelligence.
• On April 26, 2006, President Bush issued Executive Order 13399 that authorized
the Secretary of the Treasury to freeze the U.S.-based assets of anyone found to
be involved in the February 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime
Minister Rafiq Hariri. It also affects anyone involved in bombings or
assassinations in Lebanon since October 2004, or anyone hindering the
international investigation into the Hariri assassination. The order allows the
United States to comply with UNSCR 1636, which calls on all states to freeze the
assets of those persons designated by the investigating commission or the
government of Lebanon to be involved in the Hariri assassination.
• On August 15, 2006, the U.S. Treasury Department froze assets of two other
senior Syrian officers: Major General Hisham Ikhtiyar, for allegedly contributing
to Syria’s support of foreign terrorist organizations including Hezbollah; and
Brigadier General Jama’a Jama’a, for allegedly playing a central part in Syria’s
intelligence operations in Lebanon during the Syrian occupation.91
• On January 4, 2007, the U.S. Treasury Department designated three Syrian
entities, the Syrian Higher Institute of Applied Science and Technology, the
Electronics Institute, and the National Standards and Calibration Laboratory, as
weapons proliferators under an executive order (E.O.13382) based on the
authority vested to the President under IEEPA. The three state-sponsored
institutions are divisions of Syria’s Scientific Studies and Research Center, which
was designated by President Bush as a weapons proliferator in June 2005 for
research on the development of biological and chemical weapons.92
• On August 1, 2007, the President issued E.O. 1344193 blocking the property of
persons undermining the sovereignty of Lebanon or its democratic processes and
institutions. On November 5, 2007, the U.S. Treasury Department designated
four individuals reportedly affiliated with the Syrian regime’s efforts to reassert
Syrian control over the Lebanese political system, including Assaad Halim
Hardan, Wi’am Wahhab, and Hafiz Makhluf (under the authority of E.O.13441)
and Muhammad Nasif Khayrbik (under the authority of E.O.13338).94
90 See http://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/js2617.aspx.
91 See http://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/hp60.aspx.
92 See http://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/hp216.aspx.
93 On July 29, 2010, President Obama extended that National Emergency with respect to Lebanon for another year,
stating that “While there have been some recent positive developments in the Syrian-Lebanese relationship, continuing
arms transfers to Hizballah that include increasingly sophisticated weapons systems serve to undermine Lebanese
sovereignty, contribute to political and economic instability in Lebanon, and continue to pose an unusual and
extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States.” See, Notice of July 29, 2010—
Continuation of the National Emergency With Respect to the Actions of Certain Persons to Undermine the Sovereignty
of Lebanon or Its Democratic Processes and Institutions, Federal Register, Title 3—The President, [Page 45045].
94 See http://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/hp666.aspx.
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• On February 13, 2008, President Bush issued another Order (E.O.13460)
blocking the property of senior Syrian officials. According to the U.S. Treasury
Department, the order “targets individuals and entities determined to be
responsible for or who have benefitted from the public corruption of senior
officials of the Syrian regime.” The order also revises a provision in Executive
Order 13338 to block the property of Syrian officials who have undermined U.S.
and international efforts to stabilize Iraq.95 One week later, under the authority of
E.O. 13460, the U.S. Treasury Department froze the U.S. assets and restricted the
financial transactions of Rami Makhluf, a powerful cousin of President Bashar al
Asad.
Sanctions Against the Commercial Bank of Syria
As previously mentioned, under Section 311 of the USA PATRIOT Act, President Bush instructed
the Treasury Department in 2004 to prepare a rule requiring U.S. financial institutions to sever
correspondent accounts with the Commercial Bank of Syria because of money laundering
concerns. In 2006, the Treasury Department issued a final ruling that imposes a special measure
against the Commercial Bank of Syria as a financial institution of primary money laundering
concern. It bars U.S. banks and their overseas subsidiaries from maintaining a correspondent
account with the Commercial Bank of Syria, and it also requires banks to conduct due diligence
that ensures the Commercial Bank of Syria is not circumventing sanctions through its business
dealings with them.96
General Sanctions Applicable to Syria
The International Security Assistance and Arms Export Control Act of 1976 [P.L. 94-329].
Section 303 of this act [90 Stat. 753-754] required termination of foreign assistance to countries
that aid or abet international terrorism. This provision was incorporated into the Foreign
Assistance Act of 1961 as Section 620A [22 USC 2371]. (Syria was not affected by this ban until
1979, as explained below.)
The International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 [Title II of P.L. 95-223 (codified at
50 U.S.C. §1701 et seq.)]. Under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA),
the President has broad powers pursuant to a declaration of a national emergency with respect to a
threat “which has its source in whole or substantial part outside the United States, to the national
security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States.” These powers include the ability to
seize foreign assets under U.S. jurisdiction, to prohibit any transactions in foreign exchange, to
prohibit payments between financial institutions involving foreign currency, and to prohibit the
import or export of foreign currency.
The Export Administration Act of 1979 [P.L. 96-72]. Section 6(i) of this act [93 Stat. 515]
required the Secretary of Commerce and the Secretary of State to notify Congress before
licensing export of goods or technology valued at more than $7 million to countries determined to
95 A previous executive order, E.O. 13315, blocks property of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and members of
his former regime. On June 9, 2005, the Treasury Department blocked property and interests of a Syrian company, SES
International Corp., and two of its officials under the authority of E.O.13315.
96 See, “U.S. Trade and Financial Sanctions Against Syria.” Available at http://damascus.usembassy.gov/sanctions-
syr.html.
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have supported acts of international terrorism. (Amendments adopted in 1985 and 1986 relettered
Section 6(i) as 6(j) and lowered the threshold for notification from $7 million to $1 million.)
A by-product of these two laws was the so-called state sponsors of terrorism list. This list is
prepared annually by the State Department in accordance with Section 6(j) of the Export
Administration Act. The list identifies those countries that repeatedly have provided support for
acts of international terrorism. Syria has appeared on this list ever since it was first prepared in
1979; it appears most recently in the State Department’s annual publication Country Reports on
Terrorism, 2009, issued on August 5, 2010. Syria’s inclusion on this list in 1979 triggered the
above-mentioned aid sanctions under P.L. 94-329 and trade restrictions under P.L. 96-72.
Omnibus Diplomatic Security and Antiterrorism Act of 1986 [P.L. 99-399]. Section 509(a) of this
act [100 Stat. 853] amended Section 40 of the Arms Export Control Act to prohibit export of
items on the munitions list to countries determined to be supportive of international terrorism,
thus banning any U.S. military equipment sales to Syria. (This ban was reaffirmed by the Anti-
Terrorism and Arms Export Amendments Act of 1989—see below.) Also, 10 U.S.C. 2249a bans
obligation of U.S. Defense Department funds for assistance to countries on the terrorism list.
Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1986 [P.L. 99-509]. Section 8041(a) of this act [100 Stat.
1962] amended the Internal Revenue Code of 1954 to deny foreign tax credits on income or war
profits from countries identified by the Secretary of State as supporting international terrorism.
[26 USC 901(j)]. The President was given authority to waive this provision under Section 601 of
the Trade and Development Act of 2000 (P.L. 106-200, May 18, 2000).
The Anti-Terrorism and Arms Export Control Amendments Act of 1989 [P.L. 101-222]. Section 4
amended Section 6(j) of the Export Administration Act to impose a congressional notification and
licensing requirement for export of goods or technology, irrespective of dollar value, to countries
on the terrorism list, if such exports could contribute to their military capability or enhance their
ability to support terrorism.
Section 4 also prescribes conditions for removing a country from the terrorism list: prior
notification by the President to the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the chairmen of
two specified committees of the Senate. In conjunction with the requisite notification, the
President must certify that the country has met several conditions that clearly indicate it is no
longer involved in supporting terrorist activity. (In some cases, certification must be provided 45
days in advance of removal of a country from the terrorist list).
The Anti-Economic Discrimination Act of 1994 [Part C, P.L. 103-236, the Foreign Relations
Authorization Act, FY1994-1995]. Section 564(a) bans the sale or lease of U.S. defense articles
and services to any country that questions U.S. firms about their compliance with the Arab
boycott of Israel. Section 564(b) contains provisions for a presidential waiver, but no such waiver
has been exercised in Syria’s case. Again, this provision is moot in Syria’s case because of other
prohibitions already in effect.
The Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 [P.L. 104-132]. This act requires the
President to withhold aid to third countries that provide assistance (§325) or lethal military
equipment (§326) to countries on the terrorism list, but allows the President to waive this
provision on grounds of national interest. A similar provision banning aid to third countries that
sell lethal equipment to countries on the terrorism list is contained in Section 549 of the Foreign
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Operations Appropriations Act for FY2001 (H.R. 5526, passed by reference in H.R. 4811, which
was signed by President Clinton as P.L. 106-429 on November 6, 2000).
Also, Section 321 of P.L. 104-132 makes it a criminal offense for U.S. persons (citizens or
resident aliens) to engage in financial transactions with governments of countries on the terrorism
list, except as provided in regulations issued by the Department of the Treasury in consultation
with the Secretary of State. In the case of Syria, the implementing regulation prohibits such
transactions “with respect to which the United States person knows or has reasonable cause to
believe that the financial transaction poses a risk of furthering terrorist acts in the United States.”
(31 CFR 596, published in the Federal Register August 23, 1996, p. 43462.) In the fall of 1996,
the then chairman of the House International Relations Committee reportedly protested to then
President Clinton about the Treasury Department’s implementing regulation, which he described
as a “special loophole” for Syria.
In addition to the general sanctions listed above, specific provisions in foreign assistance
appropriations legislation enacted since 1981 have barred Syria by name from receiving U.S. aid.
The most recent ban appears in Section 7007 of P.L. 112-74, Consolidated Appropriations Act,
2012, which states that “None of the funds appropriated or otherwise made available pursuant to
titles III through VI of this Act shall be obligated or expended to finance directly any assistance
or reparations for the governments of Cuba, North Korea, Iran, or Syria: Provided, That for
purposes of this section, the prohibition on obligations or expenditures shall include direct loans,
credits, insurance and guarantees of the Export-Import Bank or its agents.”
Section 307 of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, amended by Section 431 of the Foreign
Relations Authorization Act for FY1994-1995 (P.L. 103-236, April 30, 1994), requires the United
States to withhold a proportionate share of contributions to international organizations for
programs that benefit eight specified countries or entities, including Syria.
The Iran Nonproliferation Act of 2000, P.L. 106-178, was amended by P.L. 109-112 to make its
provisions applicable to Syria as well as Iran. The amended act, known as the Iran and Syria
Nonproliferation Act, requires the President to submit semi-annual reports to designated
congressional committees, identifying any persons involved in arms transfers to or from Iran or
Syria; also, the act authorizes the President to impose various sanctions against such individuals.
On October 13, 2006, President Bush signed P.L. 109-353 which expanded the scope of the
original law by adding North Korea to its provisions, thereby renaming the law the Iran, North
Korea, and Syria Nonproliferation Act (or INKSNA for short). The list of Syrian entities
designated under INKSNA includes Army Supply Bureau (2008), Syrian Navy (2009), Syrian Air
Force (2009), and Ministry of Defense (2008).97 On May 24, 2011, the State Department
designated the Industrial Establishment of Defense and Scientific Studies and Research Center
(SSRC) under INKSNA.
97 See, State Department Press Releases And Documents “Near East: Iran, North Korea, and Syria Nonproliferation
Act: Imposed Sanctions,” July 20, 2010.
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Author Contact Information
Jeremy M. Sharp
Christopher M. Blanchard
Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs
Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs
jsharp@crs.loc.gov, 7-8687
cblanchard@crs.loc.gov, 7-0428
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