Prospects for Democracy in Hong Kong:
The 2012 Election Reforms
Michael F. Martin
Specialist in Asian Affairs
June 18, 2010
Congressional Research Service
7-5700
www.crs.gov
R40992
CRS Report for Congress
P
repared for Members and Committees of Congress
Prospects for Democracy in Hong Kong: The 2012 Election Reforms
Summary
Support for the democratization of Hong Kong has been an element of U.S. foreign policy for
over 17 years. The Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 (P.L. 102-383) states, “Support for
democratization is a fundamental principle of United States foreign policy. As such, it naturally
applies to United States policy toward Hong Kong. This will remain equally true after June 30,
1997” (the date of Hong Kong’s reversion to China). The Omnibus Appropriations Act of 2009
(P.L. 111-8) provides at least $17 million for “the promotion of democracy in the People’s
Republic of China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan …”
The democratization of Hong Kong is also enshrined in the Basic Law, Hong Kong’s quasi-
constitution that was passed by China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) prior to China’s
resumption of sovereignty over the ex-British colony on July 1, 1997. The Basic Law stipulates
that the “ultimate aim” is the selection of Hong Kong’s Chief Executive and the members of its
Legislative Council (Legco) by “universal suffrage.” However, it does not designate a specific
date by which this goal is to be achieved.
On November 18, 2009, Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen released the
government’s long-awaited “consultation document” on possible reforms for the city’s next Chief
Executive and Legislative Council (Legco) elections to be held in 2012. The document delineates
the changes possible for the 2012 elections in light of the December 2007 decision by the
Standing Committee of China’s National People’s Congress (NPCSC) that precluded the direct
election of the Chief Executive and Legco by universal suffrage in 2012. These include
expanding the size of the Election Committee that selects the Chief Executive from 800 to 1,200
people; increasing the number of Legco seats from 60 to 70; and allocating the five new
functional constituency seats to the elected members of Hong Kong’s District Councils.
The document was immediately met by sharp criticism from representatives of Hong Kong’s
“pro-democracy” parties. Their comments focused on the failure to provide a path towards
universal suffrage for the Chief Executive election in 2017 and the Legco election in 2020. In a
press conference, Chief Executive Tsang called the document a step forward for democracy in
Hong Kong. He also made a call for unity, saying, “This is a time for seeking consensus, not
differences. This is a time to abandon impractical demands.” Five Legco members resigned on
January 21, 2010, as a form of protest, forcing a by-election on May 16, 2010. The five
incumbents were re-elected.
On June 7, 2010, Chief Executive Tsang submitted draft motions to Legco specifying what
changes are to be made in the 2012 elections. The two motions are consistent with the
recommendations made in the consultation document—increasing the size of the Election
Committee for Chief Executive to 1,200 members and adding 10 new seats to Legco.
The potential 2012 election reforms are important to Hong Kong’s democratization for two
reasons. First, they are an indication of the Hong Kong government’s willingness to press for
democratic reforms. Second, the Chief Executive and Legco selected in 2012 will have the power
to implement universal suffrage for the Chief Executive election in 2017 and the Legco election
in 2020, if they so choose.
This report will be updated as circumstances warrant.
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Prospects for Democracy in Hong Kong: The 2012 Election Reforms
Contents
Overview .................................................................................................................................... 1
Historical Background ................................................................................................................ 2
The Basic Law and Hong Kong Elections ............................................................................. 3
The Proposed Reforms of 2005 ............................................................................................. 4
The Decision of December 2007 ........................................................................................... 4
The 2008 Legco Elections ........................................................................................................... 5
The 2012 Elections ..................................................................................................................... 6
Public Consultation and the Consultation Document ............................................................. 7
The Legco Resignation and By-Election................................................................................ 8
Submissions of the Motions to Legco .......................................................................................... 9
Implications for Democracy in Hong Kong ............................................................................... 10
Issues for Congress ................................................................................................................... 11
Tables
Table 1. Results of the 2008 Legco Elections............................................................................... 6
Table 2. Hong Kong Current Election System and Hong Kong Government’s Views for
2012 Election Reforms............................................................................................................. 8
Contacts
Author Contact Information ...................................................................................................... 11
Congressional Research Service
Prospects for Democracy in Hong Kong: The 2012 Election Reforms
Overview
Well before the People’s Republic of China (China) resumed sovereignty over Hong Kong on
July 1, 1997—an event frequently referred to as the “Handover”—Congress demonstrated its
concern about the prospects for democracy in the former British colony. The Hong Kong Policy
Act of 1992 (P.L. 102-383) states, “Support for democratization is a fundamental principle of
United States foreign policy. As such, it naturally applies to United States policy toward Hong
Kong. This will remain equally true after June 30, 1997.” Section 301 of the U.S.-Hong Kong
Policy Act required an annual report from the State Department to Congress on the status of Hong
Kong, which was to include a description of “the development of democratic institutions in Hong
Kong.” Section 202 gave the President the authority to suspend Hong Kong’s separate treatment
from China if he determines that China is not fulfilling “the terms, obligations, and expectations
expressed in the Joint Declaration with respect to Hong Kong.”1
The 111th Congress has continued past congressional interest in Hong Kong’s quest for
democracy. On March 11, 2009, the Omnibus Appropriations Act of 2009 (P.L. 111-8)
appropriated not less than $17 million for “the promotion of democracy in the People’s Republic
of China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan …”
In addition, China’s stance on Hong Kong’s democratization may also signal its intentions
regarding political reforms on the Mainland and its preferred path to reunification with Taiwan.
China’s formulation of the “one country, two systems” policy in 1981 not only formed the legal
basis for Hong Kong’s Handover, it also provided China’s framework for future relations with
Taiwan.2 Given Taiwan’s recent advances in democracy, it is uncertain if the “one country, two
systems” model remains viable, especially if China appears reluctant to allow significant political
change in Hong Kong.
Under the Basic Law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic
of China, the city’s quasi-constitution, the “ultimate aim” is the selection of Hong Kong’s Chief
Executive and the members of its Legislative Council (Legco) by “universal suffrage.” However,
the Basic Law also stipulates that the selection of the Chief Executive and the Legco members is
to be done “in the light of the actual situation in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
and in accordance with the principle of gradual and orderly progress.”3 In addition, the Basic Law
requires that any change in Hong Kong’s election process be approved by both the Chief
Executive and two-thirds of the Legco members.
1 The Joint Declaration makes no reference to either democracy or universal suffrage. Annex I of the Joint Declaration
does state that Hong Kong’s Chief Executive “shall be selected by election or through consultations held locally and be
appointed by the Central People’s Government,” and the Legislative Council “shall be constituted by elections.”
2 The concept of “one country, two systems” initially emerged following a discussion of the Standing Committee of the
National People’s Congress on relations with Taiwan in September 1981, that resulted in the “Nine Article Statement.”
In January 1982, Deng Xiao-ping made the first public reference to “one country, two systems” during a meeting with
foreign officials, stating “The ‘Nine Articles Statement’ … actually means ‘one country, two systems’ … Roughly
speaking, these articles apply to not only the question of Taiwan, but the issue of Hong Kong as well.” For more
information on “one country, two systems,” see Wen Qing, “‘One Country, Two Systems:’ The Best Way to Peaceful
Reunification,” Beijing Review, No. 33, 1990.
3 Articles 45 and 68 of the Basic Law.
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Prospects for Democracy in Hong Kong: The 2012 Election Reforms
Over the last 12 years, the issue of democratic reforms has been one of the preeminent political
concerns in Hong Kong. Efforts by the Hong Kong government to modify Hong Kong’s election
system have been stymied by local opposition or intervention by the Chinese government.
Proposed changes for Hong Kong’s elections of 2007 and 2008 were rejected by Hong Kong’s
Legislative Council (Legco) in 2005. Formal consideration of possible democratic reforms for the
2012 elections was terminated in December 2007 when China’s Standing Committee of the
National People’s Congress (NPCSC) issued a decision precluding universal suffrage, but
allowing for some limited reforms for the 2012 elections. Since then, there has been an active and
vibrant debate over if and when Hong Kong will establish a fully democratic election system.
Historical Background
From 1842 to 1997, Hong Kong was a British Crown Colony, ruled by a Governor appointed by
the Queen of England. In 1843, the British Parliament passed legislation establishing a
Legislative Council (Legco) in Hong Kong—appointed by the Governor—to advise the Governor
and his administration. Over time, Legco’s powers were expanded, giving the body an effective
veto over the decisions of the Governor. In addition, the appointed Legco was transformed into a
semi-democratic institution. Despite these changes, for over 150 years, Hong Kong’s political
system mainly consisted of a more powerful Governor and a less powerful Legco.
In 1985, Legco had its first “elected” members, including 12 selected by “functional
constituencies”—professional or special interest groups considered important for the economic
and social well-being of Hong Kong. Ten years later, Hong Kong’s last Legco under British rule
was selected under political reforms proposed by Governor Chris Patten. The final British Legco
consisted of 60 members—20 elected by regional plebiscites, 10 selected by a special Election
Committee, and 30 selected by 29 functional constituencies. Other important aspects of Patten’s
reforms were the abolishment of “corporate” votes in the functional constituencies and the
expansion of the functional constituencies so that most adults in Hong Kong could vote in one of
the functional constituencies.
While many hailed Patten’s reforms as a belated effort to implement democratic reforms in Hong
Kong, the Chinese government viewed the Governor’s actions as a violation of the Joint
Declaration of the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and
the Government of the People’s Republic of China on the Question of Hong Kong (the Joint
Declaration), the official document governing the transfer of Hong Kong. Although the Joint
Declaration made provision for the separate legislative power in Hong Kong, it also stipulated
that the “laws currently in force in Hong Kong will remain basically unchanged.” The Chinese
government maintained that Patten’s Legco reforms were inconsistent with this provision of the
Joint Declaration. China subsequently reversed Patten’s reforms by abolishing the 1995 Legco
and seating the Provisional Legislative Council after the Handover.4
4 For more information on Patten’s reforms and the Provisional Legislative Council, see CRS Report 97-557, Hong
Kong’s “Provisional Legislature” Controversy, by Kerry Dumbaugh, available upon request.
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Prospects for Democracy in Hong Kong: The 2012 Election Reforms
A political movement for democracy in Hong Kong arose even before the end of British rule. A
few of Hong Kong’s political parties—most notably, the Democratic Party and the Frontier
Party—began advocating the election of the Chief Executive and Legco by universal suffrage as
soon as possible. Other Hong Kong political parties—in particular, the Democratic Alliance for
the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) and the Liberal Party—supported a more
gradual and cautious approach to election reforms.
The Basic Law and Hong Kong Elections
The Basic Law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of
China was passed by the National People’s Congress on April 4, 1990, establishing the new
government structure for Hong Kong under Chinese sovereignty.5 Much like under British rule,
the Basic Law created an executive-led government, headed by a Chief Executive, as well as a
representative legislature called the Legislative Council (Legco). The first Chief Executive
chosen after the Handover was to be selected by an Election Committee consisting of 800 people,
largely chosen by the Chinese government, and equally divided among four “sectors” of Hong
Kong society.6 The first post-Handover Legco was to consist of 60 members, some elected based
on geographical districts and some selected by functional constituencies.
Articles 45 and 68 of the Basic Law state that the “ultimate aim” is the selection of Hong Kong’s
Chief Executive and the members of Legco by “universal suffrage.” The processes of reforming
the selection process for the Chief Executive and Legco are specified in Annex I and II of the
Basic Law. Both annexes precluded changes in the election process until after 2007. To amend the
selection process for the Chief Executive, Annex I stipulates that the proposal must be endorsed
by two-thirds of Legco, consented to by the Chief Executive, and approved by the NPCSC. To
amend the selection process for Legco, Annex II requires the proposal must be endorsed by two-
thirds of Legco, consented to by the Chief Executive, and “reported to” the NPCSC. As a result,
both the Chief Executive and Legco in office must approve changes in Hong Kong’s election
laws, including the transition to universal suffrage.
Following the Handover, democratic reforms emerged as one of the main political issues in Hong
Kong. The “pan-democracy” parties and other organizations (such as Basic Law Article 45
Concern Group) continually pressured the first Chief Executive, Tung Chee-hwa, and the Hong
Kong government to take steps to advance democracy in Hong Kong. On March 10, 2005, Tung
submitted his resignation in part because of public dissatisfaction with his failure to support
universal suffrage in Hong Kong.7 Tung was succeeded by his Chief Secretary for Administration,
Donald Tsang Yam-kuen.
5 The full text of the Basic Law is available online at http://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/index/.
6 The four sectors are: 1. industrial, commercial, and financial sector; 2. the professions; 3. labor, social service,
religious and other sectors; and 4. members of Legco, representatives of district-based organizations, Hong Kong
deputies to the NPC, and representatives of the Hong Kong members of the National Committee of the Chinese
People’s Political Consultative Conference. The first Chief Executive, Tung Chee-hwa was chosen in 1996 by a
Selection Committee of 400 people; he assumed office on July 1, 1997.
7 Tung’s official reason for his resignation was health. In addition to fallout from his failure to support democratic
reforms, Tung also suffered from a lack of popular support that has been attributed to such factors as his highly
unpopular attempt to pass “anti-sedition” legislation (required by Article 23 of the Basic Law) and the poor economic
situation in Hong Kong during his tenure (primarily due to the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997).
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Prospects for Democracy in Hong Kong: The 2012 Election Reforms
The Proposed Reforms of 2005
The new Chief Executive quickly found himself immersed in the democracy controversy,
especially following his submission in 2005 of proposed reforms for the 2007 Chief Executive
election and the 2008 Legco elections. Under Tsang’s proposal, the size of the Election
Committee would have increased from 800 to 1,600 people, and the number of seats in Legco
would have increased from 60 to 70, with the 10 new seats equally divided between geographical
and functional constituencies. There was apparent widespread opposition to the proposal, as
indicated by the large turnout at a December 4, 2005, rally for democracy in Hong Kong.8 Among
the main objections to the proposal were the inclusion of non-elected District Council members
on the Election Committee, the expansion of the number of functional constituency seats in
Legco, and the lack of a roadmap to universal suffrage. On December 21, 2005, Tsang’s proposal
failed to obtain the necessary two-thirds vote in Legco when 24 “pro-democracy” members voted
against the measure.
The failure to amend the election process in 2005 meant that the 2007 Chief Executive election
and the 2008 Legco election would take place under the existing system. The focus of Hong
Kong’s democratic movement shifted to the concurrent Chief Executive and Legco elections
scheduled for 2012.9 Chief Executive Tsang initiated a process of public consultation on the
subject of “constitutional development,” that involved the formation of the Commission on
Strategic Development to study the issue of universal suffrage in Hong Kong. The pro-democracy
forces advocated the selection of the Chief Executive and all members of Legco by universal
suffrage in the 2012 elections, while others favored more modest, incremental election reforms.
In July 2007, the Commission completed its work and the Hong Kong government released the
“Green Paper on Constitutional Development.”10
The Decision of December 200711
A heated debate about election reforms brewed in Hong Kong until December 29, 2007. In
response to a report from Chief Executive Tsang, the Standing Committee of the National
People’s Congress (NPCSC) released its “Decision on Issues Relating to the Methods of
Selecting the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and for Forming
the Legislative Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region in the Year 2012 and on
Issues Relating to Universal Suffrage.”12
8 Estimates for the turnout vary depending on the source. The Hong Kong Police’s official estimate was 63,000 people.
The organizers of the event, the Civic Human Rights Front, said at least 250,000 people attended the rally. Estimates
from two university research teams placed the figure at 60,000 to 80,000 and 80, 000 to 100,000 people, respectively.
Given the population of Hong Kong at the time, using the police estimate, it meant one out of every 100 Hong Kong
residents attended the rally.
9 The Chief Executive serves for a five-year term; Legco members serve for four years. As a result, the end of the Chief
Executive and Legco terms in office coincide in 2012.
10 The “Green Paper on Constitutional Development” is available online at http://www.cmab-gpcd.gov.hk/en/
consultation/index.htm
11 For more information about the NPCSC’s decision, see CRS Report RS22787, Prospects for Democracy in Hong
Kong: China’s December 2007 Decision, by Michael F. Martin.
12 Official English translation of the decision is available at http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-12/29/
content_7334596.htm.
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Prospects for Democracy in Hong Kong: The 2012 Election Reforms
In its decision, the NPCSC ruled out the direct election of Hong Kong’s Chief Executive and
Legco by universal suffrage in the elections of 2012. However, the decision also stated that the
Chief Executive may be directly elected by universal suffrage in 2017, provided certain
conditions were met. The NPCSC also decided that all members of the Legco may be elected by
universal suffrage after the direct election of Chief Executive has taken place, effectively setting
2020 as the first possible year for fully democratic Legco elections.
However, the NPCSC’s decision also indicated that it was possible to make changes in election
procedures before 2017, subject to certain constraints. While the Chief Executive would still be
selected by the Election Committee, it was possible to alter the size, constitution, and regulations
governing the conduct of the Election Committee. Also, while the 50-50 split between the
geographical and functional constituency seats in Legco could not be altered, the number of seats
in Legco could be changed and the nature of the functional constituencies could be amended or
revised.
A final important element of the decision was its specification of the process whereby changes in
Hong Kong’s election system were to be made. The NPCSC decision laid out a multi-step process
that began with the Chief Executive presenting a report to the NPCSC on the need to amend the
current process and ended with the Chief Executive presenting the approved amendments to the
NPCSC for its approval or its records.
The 2008 Legco Elections
Legco elections were held in Hong Kong on September 7, 2008, with the future of democratic
reforms one of the key issues of the campaign. A pan-democratic coalition—consisting of the
newly-formed Civic Party, the perennial Democratic Party, the Hong Kong Confederation of
Trade Unions, the League of Social Democrats (LSD), and a few other smaller political parties—
campaigned in support of a quick transition to universal suffrage in Hong Kong. The “pro-
Beijing” parties—the DAB, the Liberal Party, and the Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions—
advocated a more gradual transition towards democracy.
The outcome of the 2008 Legco election produced a few surprises (see Table 1). First, one of
Hong Kong’s longest standing political parties—the pro-business Liberal Party—faired poorly,
losing all three of its geographical constituency seats. Second, the DAB did well, gaining three
seats. Third, despite the supposed public concern about democratic reforms, the pan-democratic
parties lost two seats, but still retained enough seats in Legco—23 seats—to veto proposed
election reforms.
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Table 1. Results of the 2008 Legco Elections
by Political Party and Type of Constituency
Geographical
Functional
Coalition Political
Party
Constituency Seats
Constituency Seats
Pan-democrats
Civic Party
4
1
Democratic Party
7
1
Hong Kong Confederation of Trade
1 0
Unions
League of Social Democrats (LSD)
3
0
Other 5
2
Pro-Beijing
Democratic Alliance for the Betterment
9 4
and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB)
Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions
0
1
Liberal Party
0
7
Other 1
12
Non-aligned Unaffiliated
1
2
Source: CRS analysis.
No sooner than the 2008 Legco was sworn into office, its pan-democrat members began lobbying
Chief Executive Tsang and the Hong Kong government to submit a proposal for Hong Kong’s
transition to full democracy. While the League of Social Democrats continued to push for
universal suffrage in the 2012 elections, other pan-democrats shifted their attention to the possible
2012 election reforms and a possible roadmap to universal suffrage in 2017 and 2020. For their
part, the pro-Beijing Legco members generally accepted the terms of the NPCSC decision, and
focused their comments on the possible changes to be made in the 2012 elections.
The 2012 Elections
Although the NPCSC’s decision effectively ended the discussion about universal suffrage before
2017, it left open the possibility of modest election reforms in 2012. Based on the contents of the
decision, Chief Executive Tsang initiated a period of study and public consultation on possible
amendments to Hong Kong’s election process for the 2012 elections, with the Commission on
Strategic Development once again responsible for the process. However, the work of the
Commission has been fraught with problems.
During his campaign before the May 2007 Chief Executive election, Tsang had promised that, if
elected, by the end of his term he would provide a proposal that would “focus on the final
resolution, not a midterm resolution, for universal suffrage.” To many, this campaign pledge
indicated that his next election reform proposal would not only include changes for the 2012
elections, but would also specify when and how Hong Kong would make the transition to
universal suffrage. On October 15, 2008, Tsang stated in his annual policy address that “In the
first half of 2009, we will consult the public on the methods for electing the Chief Executive and
for forming the Legislative Council in 2012.” According to his critics, Tsang has broken both of
these promises.
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Public Consultation and the Consultation Document
On January 15, 2009, Chief Executive Tsang announced that the public consultation on the 2012
elections would have to be delayed until the fourth quarter of the year due to a “once in a lifetime
economic crisis.” Tsang affirmed that “Postponing the consultation to the fourth quarter this year
does not mean canceling it,” and that the postponement still left ample time to make and
implement amendments to Hong Kong’s election process before the 2012 elections. In the
meantime, the Commission would continue its work on election reform.
On November 18, 2009, the Hong Kong government released its Consultation Document
regarding the 2012 elections. The purpose of the Consultation Document was to identify for the
public the key issues to be considered when proposing amendments for Hong Kong’s 2012
elections and narrowing the list of possible amendments to propose to Legco after the public
consultation is completed in February 2010. Regarding the Chief Executive election process, the
document identified five key issues: (1) the number of members in the Election Committee; (2)
the composition of the Election Committee; (3) the electorate base of the Election Committee; (4)
the nomination process for Chief Executive candidates; and (5) the political affiliation of the
Chief Executive. Regarding the Legco election process, there are only three key issues identified:
(1) the number of seats in Legco; (2) the electorate base of the functional constituencies; and (3)
restrictions on the number of seats that can be held by people who are not of Chinese nationality
or who have the right of abode in foreign countries. In addition to identifying various alternatives
associated with these eight key issues, the consultation document indicated the view of the Hong
Kong government at this time on each of these issues. Table 2 lists the Hong Kong government’s
recommendations.
Most of the key issues and the Hong Kong government’s views are self-explanatory, except for
those involving the “electorate base” of the Election Committee and the functional constituencies.
Under the current system, the registered “voters” for some of the functional constituency seats in
Legco are corporations and other legal entities, not people. In addition, when selecting
representatives to the Election Committee, some of the “voters” are corporations. Critics of this
system see this as an anti-democratic provision that violates the goal of election by universal
suffrage. It had been suggested that the voting rights be transferred to the specific directors or
executives of the corporations or entities in question.
The release of the Consultation Document was viewed by some as Tsang breaking his campaign
promise to provide a “final resolution” for universal suffrage. While the document contains
analysis and recommendations on possible reforms for the 2012 elections (see Table 2 below), it
purposely avoids presenting a roadmap or blueprint for Hong Kong’s eventual election of the
Chief Executive and Legco by universal suffrage. According to the Consultation Document, “…
in accordance with the NPCSC decision, the HKSAR can only propose amendments to the two
electoral methods for 2012.” The document asserts that reforms for the 2017 can only be dealt
with after the elections of 2012 and by implication, after Tsang leaves office.
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Table 2. Hong Kong Current Election System and Hong Kong Government’s Views
for 2012 Election Reforms
Hong Kong Government
Election Issue
Current
System
View for 2012 Elections
Chief Executive
Number of members
800 members
“Not more than 1,200”
on Election Committee
Composition of
Equal y divide members
Equal y divide additional
Election Committee
among the four sectors
members among the four
sectors; include elected
District Council members in
Committee as part of the
fourth sector (see note
below)
Electorate base of
Some votes by individuals,
Continue to allow “corporate
Election Committee
some by corporation
votes”
Nomination process for Nomination by “not less than
Continue requirement of
Chief Executive
100 members”
being nominated by at least
one-eighth of the members of
the Committee
Political affiliation of the Requires that the newly-
Maintain the requirement that
Chief Executive
selected Chief Executive
the newly-selected Chief
disavow his or her affiliation
Executive disavow his or her
with a political party
affiliation with a political party
Legislative Council
Number of seats in
60 seats; 30 by geographical
Increase from 60 to 70; Legco
Legco
constituency and 30 by
members for the five new
functional constituency
functional constituency seats
to be selected by the elected
members of Hong Kong’s
District Councils
Electorate base of
Some votes by individuals and Continue to allow “corporate
functional
some by corporations
votes”
constituencies
Restrictions on the
12 functional constituency
Continue to allow such
number of seats that
seats are open to people who candidates to run for the 12
can held by people who
are not of Chinese nationality functional constituency seats
are not of Chinese
or who have the right of
open to people who are not
nationality or who have
abode in foreign countries
of Chinese nationality or who
the right of abode in
have the right of abode in
foreign countries
foreign countries
Source: Hong Kong government, “Methods for Selecting the Chief Executive and for Forming the Legislative
Council in 2012,” Consultation Document, November 2009.
Note: The fourth sector includes “representatives of district-based organizations.”
The Legco Resignation and By-Election
After the release of the Consultation Document, the LSD organized the resignation of five
supportive Legco members to force a Legco by-election as a de facto referendum on universal
suffrage. Three of the LSD members (Albert Chan Wai-yip, Leung Kwok-hung, and Raymond
Wong Yuk-man) and two members of the Civic Party (Tanya Chan and Alan Leong Kah-kit)
resigned from Legco on January 21, 2010. The Democratic Party voted against participation on
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December 13, 2009.13 The DAB, the Liberal Party and the other pro-Beijing parties did not
support the LSD initiative, but also decided not to run candidates in the by-election.
The Legco by-election was held on May 16, 2010. All five of the incumbents won by an
overwhelming margin over their opponents, but the turnout rate was comparatively low—
17.2%—about one-third of the turnout for the previous by-election in 2007.14 The LSD and its
supporters considered the by-election a success, highlighting that nearly 580,000 people had
voted. Opponents pointed to the low turnout rate as an indication that the by-election was a waste
of time and government revenues.
Submissions of the Motions to Legco
The consultation document provided strong indications of what would probably be included in
Chief Executive Tsang’s proposed motions to Legco for election reforms. On June 7, 2010,
Stephen Lam, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs, submitted two motions to
Legco. The first would amend Annex I of the Basic Law to expand the Election Committee to
select the Chief Executive in 2012 to 1,200 people, and would require that a person receive not
less than 150 votes from the members of the Election Committee to be nominated. The second
motion would amend Annex II of the Basic Law to enlarge Legco to 70 members in the 2012
elections, with five new functional constituency seats and five new geographical constituency
seats. Details on how to select the additional Election Committee members and how to allocate
the additional Legco seats would be determined in local ordinances passed after the motions were
approved. It is assumed that the proposed ordinances would closely follow the recommendations
in the Consultation Document. In general, beyond these changes, the 2012 elections would be
conducted much like the elections of 2007 and 2008—if the two motions and the subsequent
ordinances are approved by Legco.
Chief Executive Tsang has set the date for Legco’s vote on the two motions for June 23, 2010.15 A
two-thirds vote of the 60 Legco members is required to pass the motions. It has been reported that
all 23 of the pro-democracy members of Legco have pledged to vote against the motions, unless
significant changes are made in election reforms recommended in the Consultative Document.16
If the 23 members remain true to their pledge, they have sufficient votes to veto the two motions.
The Hong Kong government launched in April 2010 its 9 million Hong Kong dollar ($1.2
million) “Act Now” campaign to raise public support for the election reforms. Chief Executive
Tsang and Civic Party member Audrey Eu Yuet-mee held a live, televised debate on the proposed
election reforms on June 17, 2010.
13 Albert Wong and Gary Cheung, “Democratic Party Majority Rejects Resignation Plan,” South China Morning Post,
December 14, 2009.
14 Hong Kong held a by-election on December 2, 2007, to fill the seat vacated by Ma Lik, chairman of the DAB, who
died on August 8, 2007. That election was won by former Hong Kong Chief Secretary Anson Chan, who ran as a pro-
democracy candidate. Voter turnout rate was 52.1%
15 “Reform Motions to be Moved June 23,” press release, Hong Kong Information Services Department, June 7, 2010.
16 “June 23 Vote on Political Reforms,” RTHK, June 7, 2010.
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Prospects for Democracy in Hong Kong: The 2012 Election Reforms
Implications for Democracy in Hong Kong
The key issue that is left unaddressed by Tsang’s proposals to Legco is how the transition to
universal suffrage will occur—if at all—in the elections of 2017 and 2020. Given that Hong Kong
is an executive-led government, the 2017 Chief Executive election may be more crucial,
especially given that the transition to universal suffrage for Legco elections is conditional upon
the achievement of universal suffrage in the Chief Executive election. However, since Legco has
the ability to block proposed policy changes by the Chief Executive, reforms of Legco elections
in 2012 are also important.
The path from nomination and selection of the Chief Executive by the Election Committee to the
election of the Chief Executive by a popular plebiscite appears to be less problematic. The current
speculation is that the Election Committee will be transformed into a purely nominating body,
which will fulfill a condition specified in Article 45 of the Basic Law.17 Once the nominees have
been selected, the public will then elect the Chief Executive, subject to the approval of the
NPCSC. It is generally thought that the transformation of the Election Committee into a
nominating committee will provide the Chinese government with enough insurance that the
elected Chief Executive will be approved by the NPCSC, thereby avoiding an embarrassing and
unpleasant situation.
The main potential source of political struggle over the election of the Chief Executive by
universal suffrage will be the size and constituency of the members of the nominating committee.
In general, the pan-democrats would prefer a larger committee consisting of more elected
members with a lower nomination requirement. By contrast, the Chinese government and its
sympathizers in Hong Kong support a smaller nominating committee that is largely based on the
Election Committee and a higher nomination requirement. Where the balance of these two forces
lies is difficult to determine at this time.
The path for the transformation of Legco into a body in which all members are elected by
universal suffrage is more difficult to see, especially if the anticipated Tsang reforms are enacted.
One of the fundamental dilemmas of Hong Kong’s democratization process is the condition that
any changes must be approved by two-thirds of the Legco members. At present, that means at
least 10 of the functional constituency members must vote in favor of the proposed reforms.
However, both of the most commonly discussed scenarios for a fully democratic Legco imply a
loss of power for the existing functional constituency members of Legco or voters in their
electoral base.
There are two leading scenarios by which Legco can be transformed into a body elected by
universal suffrage. The first scenario involves the elimination of the functional constituencies,
transforming Legco into a body with members elected only by geographical districts. The second
scenario retains functional constituency seats, but either redefines their electoral base or increases
the number of functional constituencies so that every voter in Hong Kong can vote in at least one
functional constituency. There is skepticism that enough functional constituency members of the
current Legco, or the members to be elected in 2012 and 2016, will be willing to eliminate their
17 Article 45 states “The ultimate aim is the selection of the Chief Executive by universal suffrage upon nomination by
a broadly representative nominating committee in accordance with democratic procedures.”
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Prospects for Democracy in Hong Kong: The 2012 Election Reforms
seats as of 2020. Similarly, it is unclear if enough members of Legco will support the second
scenario, given the implicit dilution of their power.
Issues for Congress
The release of the Consultation Document, the Legco by-election and the submission of the
motions to Legco have reactivated consideration of democratic reforms in Hong Kong. Although
the contents of these documents and the Hong Kong government’s recommendations may not
please everyone, they have clarified what Chief Executive Tsang sees as the next step towards
universal suffrage in Hong Kong.
If Congress should determine it wishes to take action on Hong Kong’s election reforms, one
option is to indicate directly to the Hong Kong and Chinese governments its concerns and
preferences. This could be done by various means, ranging from the passage of resolutions, to the
convening of hearings, to submitting comments to the Constitutional and Mainland Affairs
Bureau of the Hong Kong government.18
Alternatively, Congress could inquire of the Obama Administration what actions it was taking
with regarding to Hong Kong’s 2012 elections, particularly if and how any of the $17 million
appropriated for “the promotion of democracy in the People’s Republic of China, Hong Kong,
and Taiwan” are being used on activities related to the 2012 elections.
Finally, in light of the NPCSC’s December 2007 decision and subsequent developments in Hong
Kong, Congress could request a report from the White House or an appropriate government
agency on the status of Hong Kong’s autonomy and its progress towards democracy.
Author Contact Information
Michael F. Martin
Specialist in Asian Affairs
mfmartin@crs.loc.gov, 7-2199
18 Comments for consideration before the release of its report were to be sent via mail, facsimile, or e-mail on or before
February 19, 2010, to: Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Bureau, Room 319, Main Wing, Central Government
Offices, Lower Albert Road, Hong Kong.
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