Bangladesh: Political and Strategic
Developments and U.S. Interests
Bruce Vaughn
Specialist in Asian Affairs
April 1, 2010
Congressional Research Service
7-5700
www.crs.gov
R41194
CRS Report for Congress
P
repared for Members and Committees of Congress
Bangladesh: Political and Strategic Developments and U.S. Interests
Summary
Bangladesh is a densely populated and poor nation in South Asia. Roughly 80% of its population
lives on less than $2 a day. Its population is largely Muslim and its geography is dominated by its
low-lying riparian aspect. Bangladesh suffers from high levels of corruption and an at times
faltering democratic system that has been subject to pressure from the military.
Bangladesh (the former East Pakistan) gained its independence in 1971, following India’s
intervention in a rebellion against West Pakistan (currently called Pakistan). In the years since
independence, Bangladesh has established a reputation as a largely moderate and democratic
majority Muslim country. This status has been under threat from a combination of political
violence, weak governance, poverty, corruption, and Islamist militancy. There has been concern
in the past that should Bangladesh become a failed state, or a state with increased influence by
Islamist extremists, it could serve as a base of operations for terrorist activity. In more recent
years, such concerns have abated somewhat as Islamist militants have been vigorously pursued by
the government and Bangladesh has returned to democratic government.
The Bangladesh National Party (BNP) and the Awami League (AL) traditionally have dominated
Bangladeshi politics, with the AL in government since January 2009. The BNP is led by former
Prime Minister Khaleda Zia; the AL is led by current Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. When in
opposition, both parties have sought to regain control of the government through demonstrations,
labor strikes, and transport blockades. Political violence has long been part of the political
landscape in Bangladesh. In 2004-2005, a particularly intensive set of bombings raised questions
about political stability in the country.
Bangladesh was ruled by a military-backed caretaker government led by Fakhruddin Ahmed for
approximately two years prior to the return to democracy that was ushered in by the December
2008 election. The military-backed caretaker government sought to pursue an anti-corruption
drive that challenged the usual political elites. It also sought to put in place voter reforms,
including issuing identity cards, and moved against militant Islamists.
The current Hasina government came to power in free and fair elections with an overwhelming
majority in parliament. It has moved forward with a War Crimes Tribunal to prosecute atrocities
from the 1971 war of independence from Pakistan. The Hasina government has also moved to
strengthen ties with both India and China. With the help of the army it successfully suppressed a
mutiny by the Bangladesh rifles in February 2009.
Demographic pressure and environmental problems, some believed to be brought on by climate
change, are increasingly a problem for Bangladesh. A rising population when combined with poor
economic resilience and limits on the extent to which agricultural output can be expanded could
prove to be politically destabilizing in the future.
U.S. policy toward Bangladesh emphasizes support for political stability and democracy,
development, and human rights. The United States has long-standing supportive relations with
Bangladesh and views Bangladesh as a moderate voice in the Islamic world. The U.S. offers
considerable economic assistance to Bangladesh, and has substantial military-to-military ties that
include cooperation in multilateral peacekeeping.
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Bangladesh: Political and Strategic Developments and U.S. Interests
Contents
Overview .................................................................................................................................... 1
American Interests in Bangladesh ......................................................................................... 1
Key Political Actors in Bangladesh ....................................................................................... 2
Contemporary Political Situation................................................................................................. 2
Historical Background and Geography ........................................................................................ 3
Historical Background .......................................................................................................... 3
Geography ............................................................................................................................ 4
Government, Elections, and Bangladesh Politics ......................................................................... 5
Government and Elections .................................................................................................... 5
Bangladesh Politics ............................................................................................................... 5
War Crimes Trials ........................................................................................................... 6
The Military................................................................................................................................ 6
Islamist Extremism ..................................................................................................................... 8
Extremist Groups .................................................................................................................. 8
Recent Action Against Militants .......................................................................................... 11
Bangladesh-U. S. Relations ....................................................................................................... 11
U.S. Democratic Strengthening Programs............................................................................ 12
Bangladesh in a Regional Context ............................................................................................. 13
Bangladesh-China Relations................................................................................................ 14
Bangladesh-India Relations................................................................................................. 14
Human Rights ........................................................................................................................... 15
The Rohingya ..................................................................................................................... 16
Economic Development and Trade ............................................................................................ 16
Energy ................................................................................................................................ 17
Environmental Concerns, Climate Change, and Food Security................................................... 17
Figures
Figure 1. Map of Bangladesh .................................................................................................... 20
Tables
Table 1. U.S. Foreign Assistance to Bangladesh......................................................................... 13
Contacts
Author Contact Information ...................................................................................................... 20
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Bangladesh: Political and Strategic Developments and U.S. Interests
Overview
American Interests in Bangladesh
Bangladesh’s moderate Muslim voice and developing democracy means that it is generally well
perceived by Washington. American interests with Bangladesh include promoting development,
trade, energy, democracy support, countering militant Islamists, and working together in peace
operations. Bangladesh is also of interest to the United States for the role it plays in the larger
geopolitical dynamics of South Asia.
United States humanitarian assistance and development support to Bangladesh includes a focus
on “stabilizing population growth, protecting human health, encouraging broad-based economic
growth, and building democracy.”1 American foreign assistance to Bangladesh in FY2010 is
estimated to total $168.5 million. Specific aspects of U.S. foreign assistance are discussed in
greater detail below.
American support for developing democracy in Bangladesh has taken on renewed importance
with the return of democratic government. American foreign assistance for governing justly and
democratically goes to rule of law and human rights, good governance, political competition and
consensus building, and civil society programs. Chairman David Price of the House Democracy
Partnership led a Congressional delegation to Bangladesh in March 2010 to work with
Bangladesh to help it strengthen its democratic institutions and processes. The delegation called
on the government to work inclusively with opposition parties and for the opposition to work
constructively within the legal framework.2
Bangladesh-U.S. trade has been expanding in recent years and the United States is Bangladesh’s
largest trading partner. Bilateral trade grew from $1 billion in 1992 to $4 billion in 2009.
Although the two nations have discussed a Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA),
Bangladeshi concerns over environment, labor, and intellectual property provisions have made
Bangladesh reluctant to move forward with a TIFA. Bangladesh announced in March 2010 that it
would welcome any proposed alternative. U.S. Ambassador James Moriarty has indicated that an
alternative could be a U.S.-Bangladesh Economic and Trade Cooperation Forum.3 American trade
and investment interests in Bangladesh include developing natural gas reserves thought to be
found in the Bay of Bengal off Bangladesh’s coast.
Due to the moderate form of Islamic belief that is prevalent in Bangladesh, the country is valued
for its “strong secular and democratic heritage” and is a key state in Asia where the United States
can try to engage the Muslim world in its struggle against militant Islamists.4 Bangladesh and the
United States have a common interest in working to counter extremist Islamists and their
ideology.
1 “Background Note: Bangladesh,” Department of State, May 2009.
2 Zahurul Alam, “US Congress Delegation in Bangladesh Pushes for a Strong Democracy,” Voice of America, March
29, 2010.
3 “Dhaka Open to Any Move ‘Alternative to TIFA,” The Financial Express, March 13, 2010.
4 Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, “Remarks with Bangladesh Foreign Minister Dipu Moni After Their Meeting,”
September 16, 2009.
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Bangladesh is a very active participant in international peace operations. At the beginning of 2010
it was the second largest contributor of military and police contingents to United Nations Peace
Operations with 10,427 personnel involved in such operations.5
Bangladesh is situated at the northern extreme of the Bay of Bengal and could potentially be a
state of increasing interest in the evolving strategic dynamics between India and China. This
importance could be accentuated by the development of Bangladesh’s energy reserves and by
regional energy and trade routes to China and India.
Key Political Actors in Bangladesh
The complexities of the Bangladesh political landscape can be simplified by identifying its key
actors, their institutional and political affiliations and their interrelationships. In this context, there
are four key institutional and individual actors that largely define the Bangladesh political
landscape in 2010. These are (1) Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League (AL), (2)
Khaleda Zia of the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) which is the key opposition party, (3)
Islamist political parties and extremists, and (4) the military.
For much of its history Bangladesh has been ruled by either Hasina or Zia. Both have to varying
degrees sought to obstruct the other while in opposition. The intense and at times violent political
rivalry between the BNP and the AL, and the presence of radical Islamist parties and groups, have
defined Bangladesh’s political environment in recent years. The role of the military is another
critical element. Bangladesh has only recently emerged from a period of military-backed
government that began following convulsive political violence in 2004-2005. There was also a
mutiny of members of the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) that was suppressed by the regular army in
2009.
Contemporary Political Situation
In 2009, Bangladesh emerged from a period of rule by a military-backed caretaker government
through a December 29, 2008 election that gave Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of the Awami
League (AL) a very strong electoral mandate. The AL Government is expected to serve its full
term, as it has 230 of 299 seats in parliament. Due to its strong victory, the AL has the necessary
two-thirds majority needed to amend the constitution and is able to rule without coalition
partners.
The elections were considered to be free and fair and led to the peaceful handover of power by
the military-backed government of Fakhruddin Ahmed that had ruled for approximately two
years. 6 The current leader of the opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP), Khaleda Zia, was
Prime Minister until she stepped down in October 2006. The Prime Minister is normally
supposed to step down and transfer power to a caretaker government for a short time period
immediately preceding elections. Political violence in the lead up to the scheduled January 2007
5 “Monthly Report: Ranking of Military and Police Contributions to UN Operations,” United Nations, December 31,
2009.
6 Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, 2008 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices, “Bangladesh,”
February 25, 2009.
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election led the caretaker government to declare a state of emergency and extend its rule until the
December 2008 elections were held.
Other challenges facing Bangladesh include rampant corruption, dysfunctional parliamentary
government, a weak judiciary, a poor human rights record, communal conflict, periodic
environmental disasters, and poverty.7 An estimated 80% of Bangladeshis live on less than two
dollars a day.8 In March 2010, the High Court declared illegal corruption charges that were
brought against Prime Minister Hasina during the last BNP-led government.9
Despite these challenges, Bangladesh has established a reputation as a largely moderate and
democratic majority Muslim country. This status has, however, been under threat. When in
opposition, both parties have sought to regain control of the government through demonstrations,
labor strikes, and transport blockades. The BNP likely will increasingly use such tactics, as it
lacks sufficient representation in parliament at present to mount any substantial opposition to the
government in that body. This makes continued control of the military a key aspect of stability for
the AL in order to maintain control of the streets.
Historical Background and Geography
Historical Background
Formerly known as East Pakistan, and before that as the East Bengal region of British India,
Bangladesh gained its independence from Pakistan in 1971 following a civil war that included
military intervention by India. Whereas the partition of British India into India and Pakistan was
the result of religious division between Hindus and Muslims, the partition of Pakistan that created
Bangladesh was more the result of ethnic division and the desire for self expression by Bengalis
from East Pakistan. This double partition was a challenge to the rationale for Pakistan and points
to the national component of Bengali identity rather than to the religious component that has
played an increasingly important role in Bangladesh politics and identity in recent years.10
Bangladeshi politics have been characterized by a bitter struggle between the Bangladesh
National Party (BNP) and the Awami League (AL), and particularly between the two leaders of
the respective parties, former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia (1991-1996, 2001-2006) and Prime
Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed (1996-2001, 2009 to the present). Zia is the widow of former
president and military strongman Ziaur Rahman, who was assassinated in 1981. Sheikh Hasina is
the daughter of Bangladeshi independence leader and first prime minister Sheikh Mujibur
Rahman, who was assassinated in 1975. When out of power, both the AL and the BNP have
devoted their energies to parliamentary boycotts, demonstrations, and strikes in an effort to unseat
the ruling party. The strikes often succeeded in immobilizing the government and disrupting
economic activity. The President’s powers are largely ceremonial but are expanded during the
tenure of a caretaker government.
7 “Bangladesh Today,” International Crisis Group, October 23, 2006.
8 The Department of State, Congressional Budget Justification Document, 2011.
9 “MiG-29 Purchase Case: Hasina Graft Charges Quashed,” Notes From Bangla Paper, March 10, 2010.
10 Maneeza Hossain, “Broken Pendulum: Bangladesh’s Swing to Radicalism,” The Hudson Institute, 2007.
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There has been much political violence in
Bangladesh. The State Department issued a
Bangladesh in Brief
statement that “strongly condemned” the
Population: 156 million; growth rate: 1.29% urban
bomb attack that killed four, including
population 27%, urbanization: 3.5% annual rate of change
former Awami League Finance Minister
Land Area: 147,570 sq. km. (slightly smal er than Iowa),
A.M.S. Kibria, and injured 70 at a political
55.39% of which is arable land
rally of the Awami League on January 27,
2005. The incident was described by the
Capital: Dhaka, population approx. 10 million
State Department as “the latest in a series of
Language: Bengali (official); English widely used
often deadly attacks on prominent leaders of
Literacy: 47.9%
the political opposition and civil society.” On
Ethnic Groups: Approximately 98% Bengali with some
August 21, 2004, grenades were hurled in an
tribal and non-Bengali groups
apparent political assassination attempt on
opposition leader Sheikh Hasina at a political
Religion: Muslim 83%; Hindu 16%
rally in Dhaka and killed 23. These two
Life Expectancy at Birth: total 60.25 years, male 57.57,
attacks, and widespread bombings on August
female 63.03
17, 2005, marked a rising tide of political
Infant Mortality: 59.02 per 1,000 births
violence in Bangladesh. The Awami League
Inflation: 7.2%
has alleged that the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami
and Islamiya Okiyya Jote parties protected
Poverty: 36.3% are below the poverty line
the radicals responsible for the violence from
Gross Domestic Product: 5.7% growth 2010 est. with
prosecution by the government.11 There was
per capita ppp = $1,600
relatively less violence during the period of
GDP by Sector: Agriculture 18.7%, industry 28.7%,
the military-backed caretaker government.
services 52.6%
Labor Force: Agriculture 45%, industry 30%, services
25%
Geography
Key Exports: Garments, frozen fish and seafood, jute,
leather
Bangladesh is a low-lying riparian nation of
much agricultural fertility with a subtropical
Key Export Partners: U.S. 24%, Germany 15.3%, U.K.
monsoonal climate that is particularly prone
10%, France 7.4%
to flooding. The country’s alluvial plain is
Sources: CIA, The World Factbook; Reuters; BBC News; The
drained by five major river systems that flow
Economist Intelligence Unit; U.S. Departments of State and
Commerce; World Bank.
into the Bay of Bengal. Approximately 40%
of Bangladesh’s total land area is flooded
each year.12 It has a large delta at the confluence of the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghana rivers
and their tributaries. The southwest coastal jungle region is known as the Sundarbans and is home
to some of the few remaining Bengal Tigers in the world. There are some hills in the Chittagong
Hill Tract region in the southeast and near Sylhet in the northeast of the country. Bangladesh is
subject to major cyclones that cause extensive flooding at the rate of some 16 major floods per
decade.13 The low-lying aspect of Bangladesh’s terrain makes it particularly vulnerable to sea-
level rise due to climate change.
11 Roland Buerk, “Bangladesh and Islamic Militants,” BBC News, February 25, 2005.
12 Devin Hagerty, “Bangladesh in 2007,” Asian Survey, February 2008.
13 “Background Notes: Bangladesh,” Department of State, Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, May 2007.
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Government, Elections, and Bangladesh Politics
Government and Elections
An understanding of the traditional close political balance between the two main factions in
previous elections provides context to assess the future political landscape in Bangladesh. The
January 2007 elections were postponed by the military-backed interim government ostensibly to
forestall mounting political violence and remove corrupt officials from office. After two years, the
military-backed caretaker government returned Bangladesh to democratically elected
government. The Awami League won an overwhelming victory in the December 2008 election,
capturing 230 of 299 seats. The Bangladesh unicameral national parliament is known as the Jatiya
Sangsad. The number of seats won by the AL does not fully reflect what was really a more
closely balanced performance between the two main political factions in Bangladesh, as
opposition parties received 40% of the vote in 2008.
During the election held on October 1, 2001, the Zia-led Bangladesh National Party and its
alliance partners won 41% of votes and captured government. The BNP’s alliance partners in the
2001 election included the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), the Islamiya Okiya Jote (IOJ), and the Jatiya
Party (JP) - Manzur Faction. They were opposed by the Hasina-led Awami League which won
40% of the vote at that time. This is the same percentage that the opposition to the present AL
government currently has.14 Elections in Bangladesh are to be held every five years. Bangladesh
has instituted a provision for the President to appoint an interim government in the immediate
lead-up to polls in order to prevent the incumbent government from using the powers of office to
its unfair political advantage.
Bangladesh Politics
Although the December 2008 elections were “well administered and conducted in an orderly
fashion” and returned Bangladesh to democratic government, there is some concern that street
protests may return to once again become a regular part of the political landscape.15 A key
challenge is to ensure the proper functioning of parliament with an opposition that works within
the political framework rather than resorting to street protests. Maintaining an accommodation
with the army, which reportedly wants to limit civilian oversight, will remain another challenge
for the government. The Brussels-based International Crisis Group has identified a number of
challenges facing Bangladesh including “weak judicial and law enforcement agencies, ethnic
conflict, poor relations with regional neighbors, poverty, illiteracy and low development
indicators,” as well as “militant Islamist groups” and a continuing “culture of impunity” for
crimes perpetrated by security forces and senior politicians.16
Observers have noted efforts by the AL to press their advantage since their landslide electoral
victory in the 2008 election to further weaken the BNP and marginalize Islamist parties,
14 Bangladesh elects its representatives by district. CIA, The World Factbook, http://www.cis.gov/cia/publications/
factbook/geos/bg.
15 “NDI Delegation Finds Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections Well Administered and Peaceful,” National Democratic
Institute, http://www.ndi.org.
16 “Bangladesh,” International Crisis Group, http://www.crisisgroup.org.
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particularly the Jamaat-e-Islami. The Economist Intelligence Unit has identified several key
objectives of the current AL government. These include its decision to pursue closer relations
with India, plans to prosecute war crimes associated with the 1971 war of independence from
West Pakistan, a return to “core values” in the 1972 constitution (which includes the prohibition
of religious-based political parties), and an investigation into an attack against AL political
leaders at a rally in 2004. Some believe that AL moves against Jamaat-e-Islami and other
religious based parties, both through the ban and the war crimes trials, could provoke a backlash
and undermine political stability.17 It has been reported that Bangladesh will ban religious
organizations including Hizbut Tawhid, Ad-Din Bangladesh, Liberate Youth, and Allah’r Dal.
Islami Okiya Jote, Jamiatul Ulama Bangladesh and Markajul Islam have also been placed on a list
of suspicious organizations.18
War Crimes Trials
The AL government passed a resolution to initiate prosecutions of war crimes dating back to the
1971 Bangladesh war of secession and independence. This is viewed as a move that can help the
AL further consolidate its political advantage as it was largely members of the Islamist parties,
who have previously been in coalition with the BNP, that were involved in the atrocities. An
estimated three million people were killed during the 1971 war that was fought between
independence forces in then East Pakistan, with assistance from India, and the Pakistan army that
was largely composed of troops from then West Pakistan. The trials are aimed at those in
Bangladesh that committed war crimes, many of which are thought to have supported West
Pakistan against the Bengali nationalists. Suspects include leading members of the Jamaat-e-
Islami Party, which is the largest Islamist political party in Bangladesh. Jamaat had a paramilitary
wing, Al-Badr, that collaborated with the West Pakistani military during the war for independence
and is thought to have assassinated journalists and academics sympathetic to Bengali
independence.19
The Military
It appears at present that the government does have the support of the military despite concerns
raised by the mutiny by the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) border security force in February 2009.
Corruption, poor pay, and benefits apparently led members of the BDR to mutiny on February 25,
2009, and kill 57 BDR officers and 15 of their family members. The two-day mutiny was quickly
suppressed by the army from whose ranks many of the leading officers of the BDR are drawn.
Trials of an estimated 3,500 BDR mutineers from this incident are ongoing.20
In February 2010, 300 opposition student activist supporters of Islami Chhatra Shibir were
rounded up in Dhaka and elsewhere in the country by the military. Islami Chhatra Shibir is the
student wing of the opposition Jamaat-e-Islami political party. The arrests follow violence
between Islami Chhatra Shibir and the student wing of the AL who were fighting for control of
17 “Bangladesh Politics: Power Shift,” The Economist Intelligence Unit, January 22, 2010.
18 “Four Religious Organizations to be Banned,” Samakal, March 3, 2010, from Notes from Bangla Newspapers.
19 “Bangladesh Politics: Do Mention the War,” The Economist, July 23, 2009.
20 “BDR Peelkhana Mutiny Trial Begins Today,” The Daily Star, February 23, 2010.
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student residence halls.21 This apparent use of the military for what could be viewed as a political
objective would seem to indicate continuing political control of the military.
The government recently initiated the withdrawal of military forces from the Chittagong Hill
Tracts region. This is a key step to implementing a 1997 Peace Agreement that includes greater
autonomy for local tribal peoples. A 20-year insurgency by the Shanti Bahini, which is the
military arm of the Parbatya Chattagram Jana Sanghati Samiti (PCJSS), led to the death of 8,500
troops and rebels.22
The power behind the former caretaker government is thought by some to have resided with the
Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI). Observers believe the military sought to exert
its influence from behind the scenes through the interim caretaker government. Former Army
Chief General Moeen Ahmed often reiterated under the caretaker government his pledge that the
military had no political ambition and that it was committed to the political roadmap to hold
elections by the end of 2008. He also added at that time that the army wished to see honest and
competent leadership come to power.23 Many observers believe that the military wanted to rid
Bangladesh of past corrupt leaders and to then withdraw from politics in a way that would
preserve the military’s position in society and avoid retaliation by disaffected politicians. The
extent to which there was uniform support for this objective within the armed forces is unclear.24
The difficulty that the military had in dealing with economic difficulties, natural disasters, and the
“minus two” strategy of removing Hasina and Zia, reportedly undermined the morale of some in
the armed forces and led to internal tensions within the military. There reportedly was a split
within the officer corps between senior and junior officers with the latter group believing that
senior officers have been corrupted through their involvement in the political process.25
It has been argued that the military is restrained by a desire not to jeopardize its lucrative
involvement in international peacekeeping. Bangladesh first became involved in United Nations
(U.N.) peacekeeping in 1988 and has since contributed some 60,000 soldiers to such efforts.
Bangladesh had some 9,600 soldiers serving abroad in U.N. peace operations in 11 different
countries in March 2008, making Bangladesh one of the largest sources of U.N. troops.26 It has
been reported that the U.N. resident representative in Bangladesh has in the past pointed out that
the military’s actions in Bangladesh have implications for its involvement in U.N. peacekeeping
contracts.27 Bangladeshi troops have a reputation for being disciplined and have fewer complaints
lodged against them than U.N. troops from many other countries.28
21 “Politically Motivated Arbitrary Arrests Hamper Impartial Investigation of Campus Violence,” Amnesty
International, February 23, 2010.
22 “Country Report Bangladesh,” The Economist Intelligence Unit, August 2009.
23 “No Deviation From Electoral Roadmap, Says Gen. Moeen,” United News of Bangladesh, April 11, 2008.
24 Country Report: Bangladesh, The Economist Intelligence Unit, May 2008.
25 “Restoring Democracy in Bangladesh,” International Crisis Group, April 28, 2008.
26 “2,728 Bangladeshi Peacekeepers Decorated with UN Medal,” Independent Bangladesh, March 31, 2008.
27 “The UN in Bangladesh,” The Economist, February 21, 2007.
28 Roland Buerk, “The Cream of UN Peacekeepers,” BBC News, January 18, 2006.
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Islamist Extremism
Bangladesh was originally founded on secular-socialist principles and firmly grounded in an
ethnic Bengali nationalism as opposed to a Muslim religious identity. Some have attributed the
rise of Islamist influence in Bangladesh to the failure of Bangladeshi political elites to effectively
govern. This has been described as a crisis of hegemony of the rulers who have failed to provide
moral leadership or effectively represent the interests of the masses.29 Many believe this has
created political space for the Islamists to gain influence.
The political context for the potential influence of Islamist extremism is demonstrated by the role
that Islamist parties played as coalition partners in the previous BNP government. The BNP
government of Khaleda Zia ruled with coalition support from the Jamaat Islami (JI) and Islami
Okiya Jote (IOJ) political parties. These two political parties have an Islamist political agenda and
are thought to have ties to radical extremists.30
Because of the near even electoral balance between the BNP and the AL in the pre-2007 political
environment, the Islamist political parties, JI and IOJ in particular, enjoyed political influence
disproportionate to their support among the Bangladeshi electorate. The current split within the
BNP appears to be creating a more multi-party system in which Islamist political parties may not
enjoy the same degree of influence. Some analysts believe the parties’ abilities to be political
queen-makers may be less obvious with more potential political factions and parties. Islamists
rioted in Dhaka in April 2008 to protest a draft law that would give equal inheritance rights to
women. This triggered further protests in Chittagong on April 11 in which Islamist activists, many
of them reportedly madrasa students, attacked a police station.31
The previous caretaker government indicated its resolve to fight Islamist extremism by executing
six leaders of the Islamist extremist group Jamaatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) in March
2007. The previous BNP government also demonstrated new-found resolve to fight terrorism
despite having Islamist political parties in its coalition.
Extremist Groups
Several militant extremist groups operate in Bangladesh, including Harkat ul Jihad al Islami
(HuJi), Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB), and Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh
(JMB). Some Bangladeshi observers have alleged that the presence in the former ruling
Bangladesh National Party (BNP) Coalition government of two Islamist parties, the Islamiya
Okiyya Jote (IOJ) and the Jamaat-e-Islami, expanded Islamist influence in Bangladesh and
created space within which terrorist and extremist groups could operate. Islami Okiyya Jote is
reported to have ties to the radical Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI).32 Jamaat may also have had
ties to Harkat ul-Jihad-i-Islami, which itself has ties to Al Qaeda. Harkat leader Fazlul Rahman
29 Ali Riaz, God Willing: The Politics of Islamism in Bangladesh (New York: Rowman and Littlefield Publishers,
2004).
30 See CRS Report RL33646, Bangladesh: Background and U.S. Relations, by Bruce Vaughn, for additional
background information.
31 “Authorities Order Intensified Security Vigil in Dhaka,” Press Trust of India, April 12, 2008. See CRS Report
RS22591, Islamist Extremism in Bangladesh, by Bruce Vaughn, for additional background information.
32 Roland Buerk, “Bangladesh and Islamic Militants,” BBC News, February 25, 2005.
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signed an Osama bin Laden holy war declaration in 1998.33 JMB seeks the imposition of Sharia
law for Bangladesh and is thought responsible for the widespread and coordinated August 2005
bombings. HuJI has been implicated in the January 2002 attack on the American Center in
Calcutta, India.34 HuJI, or the Movement of Islamic Holy War, is on the U.S. State Department’s
list of “other terrorist organizations” and is thought to have links to Pakistani militant groups. It is
also thought to have a cadre strength of several thousand.35 Awami League sources claimed that
former fundamentalist leader Bangla Bhai had ties to Jamaat-e-Islami.36 AL leader Sheikh Hasina
has accused the previous government of “letting loose communal extremist forces.”37 Some news
sources have reported that international extremists have used Bangladeshi passports and that
some have obtained them with the assistance of sympathetic officials at various Bangladesh
Embassies under the previous government.38
Two senior members of IOJ have reportedly been connected with the reemergence of Harkat ul
Jihad (HuJi) under the name “Conscious Islamic People.”39 It has also been reported that the
political wing of HuJi may seek to enter politics under the name Islami Gono Andolon.40 The
former BNP government had denied the presence of significant terrorist elements in the country
and reportedly had even expelled BNP lawmaker Abu Hena from the BNP for speaking out
against extremist activities at a time when the official view was that such extremists did not
exist.41
The former BNP government eventually moved to suppress the Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen (JMB) and
the Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB) terrorist groups operating in Bangladesh. The
government sentenced to death JMB leaders Shaikh Abdur Rahman and Siddiq ul Islam, also
known as “Bangla Bhai,” as well as five other JMB members, in May 2006. They were
subsequently executed for their role in the bombings.42 The two Islamist militant leaders received
their sentences for the murder of two judges in November of 2005. They are also believed to have
been behind widespread bombings in Bangladesh and to have sought to replace the secular legal
system with Sharia law through such attacks. The government also reportedly has arrested some
900 lower-level militants, 7 known senior leaders, 4 out of 11 commanders, and some 20 district
leaders on terrorism charges.43 Despite this, the then-leader of the opposition, Sheikh Hassina,
stated “militants are partners of the government ... the government catches a few militants
whenever foreign guests visit Bangladesh.” She has also alleged that Jamaat has 15,000 guerillas
33 “Bangladesh Becoming a Regional Terror Hub,” Hindustan Times, August 3, 2006.
34 “Bangladesh’s First Suicide Bombers,” Janes Terrorism and Security Monitor, January 18, 2006.
35 Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism, Department of State, Patterns of Global Terrorism, 2003, April 29,
2004.
36 Roland Buerk, “Bangladesh’s Escalating Extremism,” BBC News, November 29, 2005.
37 Roland Buerk, “Dhaka Struggles to Respond to Bombs,” BBC News, August 2005.
38 “International Terrorists Using Bangladeshi Passports,” Notes From the Bangla Media, August 30, 2006, The U.S.
Embassy, Dhaka, “Bangladesh Press Selection,” BBC News, August 30, 2006; and “BSF Wants Anup Chetia
Deported,” Indian Express, August 29, 2006.
39 “IOJ Behind Reemergence of Harkatul Jihad,” Notes From the Bangla Media, United States Embassy, Dhaka,
August 22, 2006.
40 “War on Terror Digest 21-22 Aug 06,” BBC Monitoring, August 22, 2006.
41 “Summer of Discontent in the BNP,” United News of Bangladesh, June 9, 2006.
42 “Bangladesh Arrests Two Senior Leaders of Banned Militant Group,” BBC News, July 12, 2007.
43 “Bangladesh Coalition Partners to Face Election Together Amid Terrorism Charges,” Open Source Center, July 13,
2006.
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and its own training camps. Hassina has also stated that the arrest of JMB operatives is “only the
tip of the iceberg.”44
It appears that the former BNP government shifted its position on the necessity of acknowledging
and addressing Islamist militants in August of 2005. In response, JMB leader Rahman reportedly
stated, “masks will fall and you [the authorities] will be exposed.” Such an allegation is consistent
with allegations by the AL, which accused the former BNP government, or more likely elements
within the government, of allowing Islamist militancy to rise in Bangladesh.45
Selig Harrison, a prominent South Asia analyst, noted in early August 2006 that “a growing
Islamic fundamentalist movement linked to al-Qaeda and Pakistani intelligence agencies is
steadily converting the strategically located nation of Bangladesh into a new regional hub for
terrorist operations that reach into India and Southeast Asia.” Harrison pointed out that former
Prime Minister Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh National Party’s coalition alliance with the Jamaat-e-
Islami Party of Bangladesh led to a “Faustian bargain” that brought Jamaat officials into the
government. These officials, he argued, in turn allowed Taliban-styled squads to operate with
impunity. Jamaat’s entry into the former BNP government also reportedly led to fundamentalist
control over large parts of the Bangladesh economy, Islamist madrassa schools acting as fronts for
terrorist activity, fundamentalist inroads being made in the armed forces, and rigging (by
manipulating voter lists) of the elections that were originally scheduled for January 2007.46
On July 11, 2006, a series of coordinated bomb blasts killed approximately 200 persons while
wounding some 500 others on commuter trains in Bombay (Mumbai), India. Indian authorities
subsequently arrested several individuals reportedly with ties to terrorist groups in Bangladesh
and Nepal who were “directly or indirectly” linked to Pakistan. Indian intelligence officials have
portrayed the bombers as being backed by Pakistan-supported terrorist groups. Pakistan has
denied these allegations.47 Allegations had been made that the explosives had come from
Bangladesh. In response, Bangladesh authorities stated that the Jamaat ul-Mujahideen (JMB)
attacks in Bangladesh on August 17, 2005, which killed 30 in a series of nationwide blasts, were
of Indian origin.48 Six of the eight arrested in India in connection with the bombings are thought
to have received training from Lashkar-e-Toiba at terrorist camps in Pakistan. Lashkar is a
Pakistan-based, Al Queda-allied terrorist group.
Although most of the terrorism focus in India has been on Pakistan, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
President Rajnath Singh has called on the Indian government to pressure Bangladesh to dismantle
terrorist training centers in Bangladesh. The Hindu nationalist BJP is the leading opposition party
in India. Singh also stated that Bangladesh had become “a centre of Islamic fundamentalist
forces.”49 The anti-terrorism squad investigating the Bombay blasts also interrogated a number of
44 “Militants Arrest Meant to Impress US: Hassina,” Hindustan Times, August 4, 2006.
45 “Bangladesh Blast Masterminds Sentenced to Death,” Agence France-Presse, May 29, 2006.
46 Selig Harrison, “A New Hub for Terrorism? In Bangladesh, An Islamic Movement with Al-Qaeda Ties is on the
Rise,” Washington Post, August 2, 2006.
47 “Three Arrested Over Mumbai Bombs Linked to Pakistan,” Financial Times, August 6, 2006.
48 Waliur Rahman, “Dhaka Dismisses Mumbai Bomb Claim,” BBC News, July 15, 2006.
49 “Uproot Terror Camps From Bangla: BJP,” Hindustan Times, July 19, 2006.
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individuals in a village in Tripura, India, that borders Bangladesh.50 A bombing in Varanasi, India,
in March 2006 also reportedly had links to HuJi in Bangladesh.51
Army forces captured Habibur Rahman Bulbuli in June 2007. Bulbuli was leader of the Khelafat
Majlish that is a component of the Islamiya Okiya Jote, which was a junior partner in the former
BNP government of Khaleda Zia. Bulbuli has claimed to be a veteran of fighting in Afghanistan
and a follower of Osama bin Laden.52 In June 2007, Bangladesh police charged Mufti Hannan
and three accomplices, who are all now in prison, with trying to assassinate the British High
Commissioner Anwar Choudhury in 2004. Choudhury, who is of Bangladeshi origin, was
wounded in a grenade attack as were some 50 others. Three were also killed in the attack which
occurred at a shrine near Choudhury’s ancestral home.53 The Rapid Action Battalion (RAB)
reportedly captured four suspected members of Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen, as well as grenades and
explosives, near Kishoregani northwest of Dhaka on July 18, 2007.54
Recent Action Against Militants
Bangladesh has been largely successful in destabilizing Islamist militants since the widespread
bombings of 2005 that were carried out by the militant group Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh
(JMB). Hundreds of JMB members, including key leaders, were arrested, and the leadership,
including JMB founder Shaikh Abdur Rahman, were executed in the aftermath of the 2005
bombings. Rahman sought to establish Islamist Rule in Bangladesh. Continuing arrests and
seizures of bomb-making materials in recent years suggest that despite the crackdown on
militants since 2005 JMB had been able to regroup, at least to a limited extent. Recent reports of
ongoing JMB linkages to the Pakistani based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and British based al
Muhajiroun, as well as financial sympathizers in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, are a cause of concern
that JMB may have the resources to further regroup.55 The United States is supportive of
Bangladesh efforts against Islamist militants.56 There are reports that Harkatul Jihad (HuJi) and
the Rohingya Solidarity Organization (RSO) of Burma have the objective of creating an Islamic
state in the area of Burma’s Arakan state and Bangladesh areas around Cox Bazaar, Bandarban
and South Chittagong. It has also been reported that HuJi and RSO may have ties to Pakistan
intelligence.57 It was reported that five operatives of Jaish-e-Muhammad, including a Pakistani
national, were arrested by the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) in Dhaka in March 2010.58
Bangladesh-U. S. Relations
U.S. policy toward Bangladesh emphasizes support for political stability and democracy,
development, and human rights with some military-to-military exchanges as well. The United
50 “Mumbai Police Interrogates Terror Suspects in Tripura,” Hindustan Times, July 19, 2006.
51 “Bangla Immigrants the Threat Within,” Times of India, July 14, 2006.
52 “Bangladesh Forces Capture Afghan War Veteran Bulbuli,” Asia News International, May 16, 2007.
53 “B’desh Charges Islamists for Attacks on U.K. Envoy,” Reuters, June 9, 2007.
54 “Bangladesh Arrests Islamists, Seizes Explosives,” Reuters, July 18, 2007.
55 The Threat From Jamaat-Ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh,” International Crisis Group, March 1, 2010.
56 “US Supports Bangladesh’s Counterterrorism Approach,” The Daily Star, March 14, 2010.
57 “Religious Organizations to be Banned,” Jugantor, March 3, 2010. From Notes from Bangla Newspapers.
58 “Five of a Pak-based Militant Outfit Held,” The Independent, March 3, 2010.
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States has long-standing supportive relations with Bangladesh and views Bangladesh as a
moderate voice in the Islamic world. U.S. Pacific Command works closely with Bangladesh to
help expand and improve Bangladesh’s peacekeeping, humanitarian assistance, disaster relief,
and maritime security capabilities. Pacific Command views Bangladesh as a “strong partner who
works closely with the U.S. to enhance regional security,” which is also committed to improving
their counterterrorism capability.59
Bangladesh is a very poor country where an estimated 80% of the population live on less than $2
per day. The U.S. State Department views U.S. assistance as vital to strengthening the country
after its return to a democratically elected government. The Foreign Operations budget request for
Bangladesh typically seeks to support long term development in Bangladesh by “addressing the
underlying social, demographic, and economic factors that inhibit economic growth and increase
vulnerability to extremism.” U.S. assistance can be broken down into the categories of peace and
security, governing justly and democratically, investing in people, supporting economic growth,
humanitarian assistance, and program support.60
U.S. Democratic Strengthening Programs
The State Department 2011 Budget Justification Document discusses U.S. assistance to
Bangladesh by both account and objective. The accounts are specified in the table below.
Drawing from different accounts, a total of $24,602,000 requested for the objective of Governing
Justly and Democratically in 2011. This would represent an increase of $1,340,000 over the
estimated 2010 budget. Such assistance would go to Rule of Law and Human Rights, Good
Governance, Political Competition and Consensus Building, and Civil Society programs. Funds
for Governing Justly and Democratically would largely be drawn from International Narcotics
Control and Law Enforcement and Development Assistance accounts and would address issues
such as “legislative and technical support to improve prosecutorial and judicial reform …
supporting Bangladesh’s ongoing transition to a fully functional democracy by strengthening key
democratic practices and institutions … transparency and accountability in Government … focus
on civil society development … reinforcing the media’s watchdog function [and through] … the
promotion of basic human rights.” 61
59 Senate Armed Services Committee Testimony of Robert Willard, Commander, U.S. Pacific Command, March 26,
2010.
60 United States Department of State, Foreign Operations Congressional Budget Justification Document, “Bangladesh,”
2010.
61 The Department of State, Congressional Budget Justification Document, 2011.
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Table 1. U.S. Foreign Assistance to Bangladesh
By Account and Fiscal Year ($s in thousands)
FY2009 actual
FY2010 estimate
FY2011 request
Development
Assistance 40,000 66,271 81,902
Economic Support Fund
50,000
0
0
Food for Peace
30,029
42,000
42,000
Foreign Military Financing 590 1,500 1,500
Global Health and Child Survival
41,550
53,200
77,300
International Military Education
787 1,000 1,000
& Training
International Narcotics Control
200 350 850
& Law Enforcement
Nonproliferation, Antiterrorism,
3,600 4,200 2,575
Demining and related Programs
Total
166,756 168,521 207,127
Source: U.S. State Department, “Bangladesh,” Budget Justification Document, 2011.
One area for possible additional U.S. assistance for Bangladesh would be in the area of the
environment and climate change adaptation and mitigation assistance as the consequences of
climate change for this low lying nation may increase dramatically in the years ahead. (See
“Environmental Concerns, Climate Change, and Food Security” section below.) U.S. Agency for
International Development (AID) is working with Bangladesh on a multi-stakeholder approach
that uses a co-management model to link management authorities and local communities to
achieve sustainable natural resource management and biodiversity conservation. Two U.S. AID
pilot projects have been carried out. These pilot projects focused on the Management of Aquatic
Ecosystems Through Community Husbandry and the Co-Management of Tropical Forest
Resources. Under provisions in the U.S. Tropical Forest Conservation Act the government of
Bangladesh and the U.S. government have agreed to pursue a debt-for-nature swap to promote
tropical forest conservation in Bangladesh.62
Bangladesh in a Regional Context
Bangladesh is a nation of strategic importance not only to the South Asian sub-region but to the
larger geopolitical dynamics of Asia as a whole. The Bengalis’ struggle with West Pakistan was at
the centre of the 1971 Indo-Pakistan war. The creation of the independent state of Bangladesh at
that time forever weakened Pakistan’s position relative to India. This has enabled India to operate
as a key actor not only in South Asia, but in Asia as a whole. As a result, India could potentially
challenge and/or balance China’s emerging strategic posture in Asia. In this way, Bangladesh has
played, and will likely continue to play, a role in the shifting regional balance of power between
India and China. Some Bangladeshi strategic thinkers believe that China should now be pursued
as a strategic counterweight to Bangladesh’s relationship with India. The recent opening of road
62 “U.S. AID’s Response: Environment,” USAID Bangladesh, http://www.usaid.gov.
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and rail routes through Chittagong and Mangla ports in Bangladesh to India’s northeast has led
others in Bangladesh to talk of developing trade linkages to China.63
Bangladesh-China Relations
Prime Minister Hasina traveled to China in March 2010 to seek closer cooperation with China in
a number of areas. These include Chinese cooperation to construct a deep sea port at Chittagong
and to establish a road link from Chittagong to Kunming, China. Bilateral trade between
Bangladesh and China is expected to increase to $5 billion in 2010 from $4.58 billion in 2009. 64
Some have also called for Chinese investment in developing a deep seaport at Sonadia near Cox’s
Bazaar, which is relatively close to Bangladesh’s border with Burma, and using Kunming-Burma
road linkages.65
A “Closer Comprehensive Partnership of Cooperation” joint statement was issued on March 19,
2010, to take bilateral relations between China and Bangladesh forward. The statement called for
intensifying cooperation in a number of areas that include sharing hydrological information on
the Brahmaputra, intensifying exchanges, Chinese dredging of river beds, enhancing
transportation links, increasing bilateral trade, and strengthening exchange and cooperation
between the two states militaries “to safeguard respective national security and stability and
promote peace and stability in the region.” Bangladesh reaffirmed its One China policy and
expressed support for China’s efforts to enhance its cooperation with South Asian Association of
Regional Cooperation (SARC) countries.66
Ongoing engagement by China with South Asian states, particularly in the area of developing port
access, has led to suspicion of China’s motives among some in strategic circles in India and the
United States. From this perspective, port development in Bangladesh could be seen as part of a
“String of Pearls” strategy that could be used by China to secure sea lanes that cross the Indian
Ocean and link its industrialized eastern seaboard with the energy resources of the Middle East.
China has been developing ports in Gwadar, Pakistan, and at Hambantota, Sri Lanka, and has
expanded its influence in Burma in recent years.
Bangladesh-India Relations
Prime Minister Hasina appears to be pursuing improved relations with India as well as with
China. India supported Bangladesh’s struggle for independence from West Pakistan, of which
Bangladesh was a part from 1947 to 1971. Despite this, relations between India and Bangladesh
have been strained at times due to border disputes, the presence of Islamist militants in
Bangladesh, and Indian concern that insurgents from India’s northeast have sought refuge inside
Bangladesh.
Bangladesh’s land borders are almost entirely with India with the exception of a short border with
Burma. It is reported that 68 Bangladeshis were killed in the first three months of 2010 by Indian
Border Security Forces (BSF). There was also a clash between India’s BSF and the Bangladesh
63 “Dhaka Should Balance Ties with Delhi, Beijing,” Plus News Pakistan, March 15, 2010.
64 “PM Seeks Chinese Assistance to Set Up Deep-Sea Port,” Financial Express, March 19, 2010.
65 “Bangladesh: Balacing Ties with Delhi and Beijing,” China Forum, April 13, 2010, http://bbs.chinadaily.com.
66 “Dhaka-Beijing Jt Statement Outlines Closer Cooperation,” The Daily Star, March 20, 2010.
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Rifles (BDR) along the border in March 2010 that injured 18.67 There are also areas of
improvement in border relations between the two states. Bangladesh recently opened Chittagong
port to Indian exports.
Relations have improved in recent years as Bangladesh suppressed Islamist militants and returned
Hasina’s Awami League to office. The AL is perceived in India as relatively better disposed to
India than the BNP. Relations improved further after Prime Minister Hasina’s visit to India in
January 2010. During that visit several agreements were signed including one on combating
international terrorism. The Annual Report of the Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD) released in
March 2010 reportedly states that “Relations with Bangladesh have been strengthened since the
restoration of multiparty democracy … India is appreciative of the increasing cooperation with
Bangladesh in security matters, especially vis-à-vis Indian insurgent groups operating from its
territory.”68 India also announced a $1 billion line of credit for a range of projects for Bangladesh
at that time.69
There are reports of increasing tensions between India and China over border disputes including
India’s border with China in Arunchal Pradesh to the north of Bangladesh. The MoD report stated
“Necessary steps have been initiated for the upgrading of our infrastructure and force structuring
along the northern borders.”70 Bangladesh’s apparent policy to develop closer ties with both India
and China may have difficulty should tensions mount between India and China.
Human Rights
The human rights situation in Bangladesh “improved somewhat” with the return of elected
government in 2009 but also led to a slight increase in extra-judicial killing and a 3.3% increase
in politically motivated violence. Areas of concern in 2009 included “extrajudicial killings,
custodial deaths, arbitrary arrest and detention, and harassment of journalists.” The February
2009 mutiny by members of the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) border force led to the death in custody
of 59 BDR soldiers out of some 2,000 that were arrested for their role in the mutiny. There were
reports that many of the dead were tortured.71 While Islam is the state religion by constitution in
Bangladesh, religious freedom is also guaranteed by the constitution, but attacks against religious
minority groups continue. The secular approach of the AL has gained it the support of religious
minority groups in Bangladesh.72
In 2008 the state of human rights in Bangladesh remained of concern because of the continued
suspension of democratic government. According to the State Department, “Although levels of
violence declined significantly and the caretaker government oversaw successful elections, the
67 “Shootout at India-Bangladesh Border Injures 18,” Global Insight, March 15, 2010.
68 “Fighting Maoists Focus of India’s Internal Security,” BBC News, March 31, 2010.
69 D. Roy, “Hasina’s Visit to India a Landmark Moment,” Mail Today, March 26, 2010.
70 “India to ‘Restructure’ Force Levels Along China Border,” BBC News, March 30, 2010.
71 Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, 2008 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices, “Bangladesh,”
March 11, 2010.
72 Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, “Bangladesh,” International Religious Freedom Report, October
26, 2009.
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government’s human rights record remained a matter of serious concern, in part due to the state of
emergency that remained in place for much of the year” of 2008.73
The Rohingya
The Rohingya, a Mulsim ethnic group from Burma’s western Arakan state, have sought refuge in
Bangladesh for decades. The most recent Rohingya refugees include an estimated 250,000 to
260,000 who fled Burma in 1991-92. In 2010, it was estimated by one source that 400,000
Burmese nationals, most of which belong to the Rohingya group, were in Bangladesh,
predominantly in the Cox’s Bazaar district, along with approximately 28,000 Rohingya which are
registered as refugees and are living in a United Nations camp. Another source estimated the
number of Rohingya in Bangladesh in 2010 to be 220,000 with an additional 700,000 Rohingya
still in Burma. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has sought to
assist the repatriation of the Rohingya. Since 2006 it has resettled 749 Rohingya from those in the
registered camp in Bangladesh to third countries.74
It has been reported that Bangladesh initiated a crackdown in 2009/2010 that led to the arrest of
over 500 Rohingya, pushed an estimated 6,000 Rohingyas into the Kutu-Palong camp near the
border with Burma, and pushed an additional 2,000 back over the border into Burma.75
Bangladesh has also reportedly sought the assistance of China to influence Burma to take back
the Rohingya refugees. Burma reportedly agreed to take back 9,000 of the 28,000 refugees in
December 2009.76
Economic Development and Trade
Bangladesh’s GDP is expected to grow by 5.7% in 2010 following 5.9% growth in 2009.77 The
global economic downturn has reduced demand for Bangladesh exports. Merchandise exports
decreased 7.7% year on year as of November 2009.78 In April 2009, the government announced a
$500 million stimulus package to spur economic growth and placed emphasis on public-private
partnerships.79 The United States and Bangladesh have had discussions over the possibility of a
Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) or a U.S. Bangladesh Economic and Trade
Cooperation Forum (UBETCF). Bangladesh would like to increase market access for its products
in the United States.80
There are an estimated 6 million Bangladeshis working abroad. They are estimated to have sent
$9.7 billion to Bangladesh in 2008/2009, making Bangladesh one of the world’s largest sources of
overseas workers. This represents an increase of 22.4% year on year. Remittances are a
73 Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, 2008 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices, “Bangladesh,”
February 25, 2009.
74 Misha Hussain, “For Rohingya in Bangladesh, No Place is Home,” Time, February 19, 2010.
75 “Rohingya ‘Crackdown’ in Bangladesh,” Al Jazeera, February 18, 2010.
76 “B’desh Rejects UN Plea to Register Myanmarese as Refugees,” ZEE News, April 10,2010.
77 “Bangladesh: Country Report,” The Economist Intelligence Unit, April, 2010.
78 “Bangladesh Economy: Growth Challenge,” The Economist Intelligence Unit, March 2, 2010.
79 “Bangladesh Announces $500 mn Recession Relief Package,” ThaiIndian News, April 19, 2009.
80 “Moriarty Pushes for TIFA,” The Daily Star, February 19, 2010.
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significant source of revenue and are expected to decline in 2009/2010 due to the global
economic downturn.81
Energy
Bangladesh is currently experiencing a shortfall in energy as demand exceeds supply. Despite
energy reserves, Bangladesh is experiencing an estimated daily shortfall of 300 million cubic feet
of gas and 2,000 megawatts of electricity.82 Bangladesh has a world rank of 32nd in natural gas
production, with an annual output of 17.9 billion cubic meters, and ranks 48th in proven reserves
with 141.6 billion cubic meters.83 Bangladesh is also thought to have 3.3 billion tons of estimated
coal reserves. It has been estimated that Bangladesh needs $12 billion in investment over the next
five years to meet demand for energy that is growing at an annual rate of 8% to 10%.
Chevron Corporation is reported to be conducting seismic surveys near its operations in the
Jalalabad gas fields following reports that indicate larger reserves than had previously been
thought to exist in the area. Chevron has been extracting hydrocarbon from the field since 1999
reportedly without loss in pressure.84 Chevron produces approximately 45% of Bangladesh’s gas
output and is reportedly optimistic that additional reserves will be found since Bangladesh’s
energy potential is relatively unexplored.85
There appear to be problems with the government’s recent efforts to fast track gas exploration in
state-owned offshore gas fields that may contain substantial reserves. The government’s hydro-
carbon unit is expected to increase estimates of Bangladesh’s gas reserves.86
Environmental Concerns, Climate Change, and Food
Security
Bangladesh is one of the countries of the world thought most likely to suffer the adverse effects of
climate change. Some view it as the most vulnerable country to the negative impact of climate
change, due to its low-lying geography.87 Adverse impacts of climate change already observed in
Bangladesh include damage to infrastructure due to natural disasters that may be caused by
climate change, saltwater intrusion leading to the damage of 830,000 hectares of cultivatable
land, river bank erosion leading to more damaging floods, too little water during the dry season,
and too much water during the monsoon leading to declining agricultural output.88
Rising sea levels and increased salinity in low lying areas are thought to be responsible for
undermining forest health and leading to lower crop yields. The Intergovernmental Panel on
81 “Country Report Bangladesh,” The Economist Intelligence Unit, August 2009.
82 “IMF Urges Bangladesh to Raise Power Production,” Euclid Infotech, April 13, 2010.
83 CIA World Factbook, “Country Comparison: Natural Gas,” http://www.cia.gov.
84 “Chevron Expects Jalalabad to Contain Bigger Gas Reserves,” Euclid Infotech, April 12, 2010.
85 “Chevron Boss for drilling More Wells in Unexplored Areas,” The Financial Express, March 25, 2010.
86 “Gas Reserves Being Reassessed,” Jugantor, Notes from the Bangla Papers, March 10, 2010.
87 Devin Hagerty, “Bangladesh in 2007,” Asian Survey, February 2008.
88 “Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh,” August 27, 2009, http://www.climatefrontlines.org.
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Climate Change (IPCC) has projected that rice and wheat production in Bangladesh could
decrease by 8% and 32% respectively by the year 2050 and that rice yields will likely decrease by
10% for every one degree Celsius rise in growing-season minimum temperature.89 Farmers in
coastal areas have either had to move to cities or adapt through such measures as switching from
growing rice to farming prawns due to increased salinity of water. Bangladesh has reportedly
developed a new strain of rice that will grow in salty water. Bangladesh government perspectives
on climate change are detailed in the 2008 Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan
document.90 Bangladesh plans to hold a regional climate change conference in May or June
2010.91
Projected decreases in crop yields due to climate change and an increasing population when
combined with Bangladesh’s limited economic resources mean that the nation has only limited
resilience to deal with further stresses on its environment. This was made evident in the aftermath
of the Cyclone Sidr which killed 3,000 to 6,000 in Bangladesh in November 2007 while
destroying nearly 2 to 3 million tons of rice in the fields in Bangladesh.92 Bangladesh’s total rice
harvest equaled 27 million tons in 2007.93
Population growth leads to increased demand for rice. Although Bangladesh’s rate of growth is
declining, its overall population is still increasing. Bangladesh’s population growth rate declined
from 3.4% in 1975 to 2.2% in 1991 and was 1.9% in 1996.94 It is currently 1.29%.95 Bangladesh
does not appear to have the capacity to significantly increase its agricultural output as higher
yielding varieties of rice have already been introduced and it appears that most all land suitable
for rice production is already being used. One estimate has projected that Bangladesh’s
population could nearly double to 300 million, or about the total current U.S. population, by
2050.96 Other projections are less dire and estimate Bangladesh’s population growth reaching a
total population of 231 million by 2050.97
Rice is critical for food security in Bangladesh as it accounts for 75% of the calories in
Bangladeshis’ diet. Rice also accounts for 75% of cropped land and contributes 92% of total
foodgrains produced in Bangladesh. Almost all cultivatable land is already in use in Bangladesh.
Soil degradation may require high expenditures on agricultural inputs to make up for decreasing
fertility of soils. As a result, it has been projected that “Bangladesh will face an enormous
challenge by 2020 in trying to achieve food self reliance and to ensure food security for all.”98
Increasing urbanization also means that a higher percentage of the population is affected by price
89 IPCC, Climate Change 2007: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, 2007.
90 “Bangladesh: At the Mercy of Climate Change,” The Independent, February 2007.
91 “Climate Change Meeting to be Held in Dhaka,” Notes from the Bangla Papers, March 10, 2010.
92 “Cyclone Sidr Response,” Direct Relief International, February 29, 2008 and “Bangladesh Imports Burma Rice,”
The Irrawaddy, 2008.
93 Masud Karim, “Bangladesh to Import More Rice,” Reuters, May 14, 2008.
94 “Bangladesh-Population,” Encyclopedia of the Nations, http://www.nationsencyclopedia.com.
95 “Bangladesh,” CIA World Factbook, 2010.
96 Mohammad Mabud, “Bangladesh Population: Prospects and Problems,” North South University, Dhaka, December
15, 2008.
97 “Bangladesh Agriculture: In 21st Century,” Perspective, http://www.perspectivebd.com.
98 Mohammad T. Chowdhury, “Sustainability of Accelerated Rice Production in Bangladesh,” Bangladesh Journal of
Agricultural Research, September 2009.
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increases as they no longer produce their own rice. The urban population is also located closer to
the centres of power in Dhaka.
Such a large dependence on rice means that it is critical to political stability as well. An estimated
20,000 workers rioted near Dhaka in 2008 over food prices, particularly the cost of rice, which
soared in the aftermath of two floods and Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh in 2007. These weather
events led to a doubling of the price of rice in Bangladesh in 2008 and meant that food costs
accounted for 70% of the average Bangladeshi household’s income.99 A food security/political
security paradigm adds the additional requirement that rice not only be available but that it be
available at an affordable price for Bangladeshis in order that it not become a politically
destabilizing issue.
Bangladesh reached food self sufficiency in the 1990s due largely to the introduction of “green
revolution” technologies and higher yielding varieties of rice.100 Despite this, Bangladesh is once
again importing rice. The government reportedly imported four million tons of rice from India in
the six months preceding April 2008, twice the level of the year before.101 Such imports become a
significant drain on Bangladesh’s economy.
Climate change appears to have resolved a maritime dispute between India and Bangladesh as
one of the islands disputed by the two states has disappeared beneath the sea. New Moore Island
in the Sundarbans has now submerged and 10 other islands in the area are thought to be at risk.
One estimate projects that 18% of Bangladesh’s coastal area will be underwater by 2050,
displacing 20 million people, if sea levels rise by one meter as projected by some climate
models.102 Bangladesh’s Foreign Minister Dipu Moni has stated that up to a third of Bangladesh
could be lost to sea level rise induced by climate change.103 Bangladesh’s lack of resources to
accommodate such climate refugees, and already stressed conditions due to extreme population
density, could lead to cross-border migrations into bordering India which could exacerbate
existing border tensions. Bangladesh has a population density of about 949 people per square
kilometer as compared with the United States with 30, and Australia with 2.5 people per square
kilometer. There are approximately 2.6 square kilometers and 640 acres in a square mile.104 As a
result, it is already pushing the outer limits of what the land and the natural resources of the
nation can sustain.
99 “Bangladesh Workers Riot Over Soaring Food Prices,” Agence France Presse, April 12, 2008.
100 “Is Growth in Bangladesh’s Rice Production Sustainable?” http://ideas.repec.org.
101 “Asian States Feel the Pinch,” BBC News, April 11, 2008.
102 Island Claimed by India and Bangladesh Sinks Below the Waves,” The Guardian, March 24, 2010.
103 H. Franchineau, “Bangladesh Fears Climate Change Will Swallow a Third of its Land,” The Washington Times,
September 18, 2009.
104 “Population Density by Country,” http://www.nationmaster.com.
Congressional Research Service
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Bangladesh: Political and Strategic Developments and U.S. Interests
Figure 1. Map of Bangladesh
Author Contact Information
Bruce Vaughn
Specialist in Asian Affairs
bvaughn@crs.loc.gov, 7-3144
Congressional Research Service
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