South Africa: Current Issues and U.S.
Relations
Lauren Ploch
Analyst in African Affairs
May 20, 2009
Congressional Research Service
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www.crs.gov
RL31697
CRS Report for Congress
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repared for Members and Committees of Congress
South Africa: Current Issues and U.S. Relations
Summary
Over a decade after the South African majority gained its independence from white minority rule
under apartheid, a system of racial segregation, the Republic of South Africa is firmly established
as a regional power. With Africa’s largest Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a diverse economy,
and a government that has played an active role in the promotion of regional peace and stability,
South Africa is poised to have a substantial impact on the economic and political future of Africa.
The country is twice the size of Texas and has a population of almost 50 million, of which about
80% is African and 10% white. Its political system is regarded as stable, but South Africa faces
serious long-term challenges arising from poverty, unemployment, and AIDS. President Thabo
Mbeki resigned in September 2008 and was replaced by interim President Kgalema Motlanthe.
South Africa’s most recent elections were held on April 22, 2009.
The African National Congress (ANC), which led the struggle against apartheid, has dominated
the political scene since the end of apartheid and continues to enjoy widespread support in South
Africa. The party fell short of retaining its two-thirds majority in the parliament during the 2009
elections, however. Inter-party divisions, which led to Mbeki’s resignation in 2008, resulted in the
formation of a breakaway party, the Congress of the People (COPE). COPE received 7.4% of the
2009 vote, picking up 30 seats in the 400-seat parliament. The ANC now holds 264 seats, while
the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), holds 67 seats and gained control of
one of the country’s nine provinces. Jacob Zuma, elected as head of the ANC in December 2007,
weathered a series of corruption charges and was chosen by the ANC-dominated parliament after
the 2009 national elections to serve as South Africa’s newest President. Motlanthe now serves as
Deputy President.
South Africa has the largest HIV/AIDS population in the world, with almost six million South
Africans reportedly HIV positive. The former Mbeki Administration’s policy on HIV/AIDS was
controversial. The country has weathered a series of corruption scandals, and continues to
struggle with high crime and unemployment rates. Mounting social tensions related to the
competition for jobs, resources, and social services led to an eruption of xenophobic violence
against immigrants in mid-2008. The government and the private sector have undertaken a wide
variety of construction and infrastructure projects in preparation for the upcoming 2010 soccer
World Cup. South Africa has benefitted from steady economic growth in recent years, although
economists predict weaker growth prospects for the near future.
South Africa is considered to be one of the United States’ two strategic partners on the continent,
along with Nigeria. Bilateral relations are cordial, however, the U.S. and South African
administrations have expressed differences with respect to the situations in Zimbabwe, Iran, and
Iraq, and U.S. officials have articulated frustration with the South African government on
positions it took while serving on the United Nations Security Council. This report will be
updated as events warrant.
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South Africa: Current Issues and U.S. Relations
Contents
Background ................................................................................................................................ 1
Political Situation........................................................................................................................ 2
The Democratic Alliance....................................................................................................... 3
Strains in the ANC Alliance................................................................................................... 4
The Succession Debate and Mbeki’s Resignation .................................................................. 5
A New Party Emerges: The Congress of the People ............................................................... 6
The April 2009 Elections....................................................................................................... 7
The Arms Deal and Other Corruption Scandals ..................................................................... 8
HIV/AIDS ............................................................................................................................ 9
Land Reform....................................................................................................................... 11
Crime.................................................................................................................................. 13
The Economy............................................................................................................................ 13
Electricity Shortages ..................................................................................................... 15
U.S. Relations ........................................................................................................................... 16
Cooperation in Fighting Terrorism....................................................................................... 17
Diplomatic Differences ....................................................................................................... 18
The United Nations ....................................................................................................... 19
Zimbabwe .................................................................................................................... 20
Trade .................................................................................................................................. 22
Prospects for the Future............................................................................................................. 23
Figures
Figure 1. Map of South Africa’s Provinces ................................................................................ 24
Tables
Table 1. U.S. Merchandise Trade with South Africa................................................................... 23
Contacts
Author Contact Information ...................................................................................................... 24
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South Africa: Current Issues and U.S. Relations
Background
The people of South Africa are highly diverse. Black Africans make up more than three-quarters
of the population, but come from several different ethnic backgrounds. Most whites are Afrikaans
speakers of Dutch, German, and French Huguenot ancestry, but there is a substantial English-
speaking white minority. The remainder of the population are Asian, largely of Indian descent,
and people of mixed race, widely referred to as “Coloureds.”
South Africa’s economy, the largest on the
South Africa in Brief
continent, is diverse as well. South Africa
Population: 49 million
produces wine, wool, maize and other
African, 79%; whites, 9.6%; mixed race, 9%; Asian, 2.5%
agricultural products for export, although only
about 12% of the country’s land is suitable for
Population Growth Rate: 0.281%
agriculture. Moreover, South Africa is the
Approximate size: twice the size of Texas
world’s leading producer of gold, platinum,
GDP (Official Exchange Rate): $300.4 billion
and chromium. Major industrial sectors
GNI per capita (Atlas Method): $5,390
include automobile assembly, chemicals,
textiles, foodstuffs, and iron and steel
Unemployment: 21.7%
production. South African cell phone
Life Expectancy: 48.98 years
companies and other firms are active
Prevalence of HIV/AIDS: 16.2%
throughout Africa, and SABMiller, formerly
South African Breweries, operates on a global
Literacy: 86.4%
scale. The service sector recently surpassed
Religion: 80% Christian, 2% Muslim, 4% Other, 15%
mineral and energy resources as South
None
Africa’s primary income earner, according to
Language most often spoken at home:
the World Bank. The country’s stock exchange
Zulu, 24%; Xhosa, 18%; Afrikaans, 13%; Sepedi 9.4%,
is among the 20 largest in the world, and
English 8.2%, Setswana 8.2%, Sesotho 7.9%, Xitsonga
South Africa is one of the few countries on the
4.4%
continent to rank as an upper middle income
Sources: World Bank, CIA World Factbook , UNAIDS.
country. Despite its many economic strengths,
however, the country ranks as one of the most
unequal societies in the world in terms of income distribution. The majority of black South
Africans live in poverty, and South Africa’s cities are surrounded by vast informal housing
settlements known as “townships.” Shortages of water, electricity, and other social services in the
townships have contributed to growing tensions, as evidenced by a rise in township protests in
recent years.
South Africa is an influential actor in the international relations of Africa. In October 2006, South
Africa was elected as one of the 10 non-permanent members of the United Nations (U.N.)
Security Council for a two-year term that recently expired, and it is a member of the U.N. Human
Rights Council. Its voting record on both bodies has been considered by some to be controversial.
South Africa was a founding member of the African Union (AU), successor to the Organization of
African Unity (OAU), and then-President Thabo Mbeki served as the AU’s first chairperson.
President Mbeki also took a lead role in the development of the New Partnership for Africa’s
Development (NEPAD), an African-designed plan for improved governance within Africa and
increased western aid, trade, and investment that was adopted by the AU as its economic
framework. South Africa has repeatedly put itself forward as a venue for major international
conferences, such as the World Summit on Sustainable Development, which met in Johannesburg
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in August and September 2002, and the World Conference on Racism in 2001. In 2010, South
Africa will be the first African nation to host the soccer World Cup, which is expected by some to
have a significant impact on the country’s overall economic growth and job creation.
Civil war, weak regimes, and general instability in the region have historically had a negative
impact on South Africa, and the country continues to face a large influx of illegal immigrants. By
some estimates, more than three million Zimbabweans currently reside illegally in South Africa.
Some South Africans blame these immigrants for the country’s high crime and unemployment
rates and rising food prices, and in May 2008 tensions erupted in the townships, sparking a wave
of xenophobic attacks that displaced over 25,000 and left over 60 dead. The attacks could have
long term consequences for attendance of the World Cup and for tourism in general.
In order to promote greater stability, former President Mbeki and South African officials have
played prominent mediator roles in African conflicts, and South African troops actively support
peacekeeping missions throughout the continent. In 2002, they helped to persuade the parties to
the prolonged conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to sign a peace agreement
following negotiations in South Africa. Mbeki was less successful in mediating the conflict in
Cote d’Ivoire. Over 1,200 South African troops are currently participating as peacekeepers in the
U.N. Mission in the DRC (MONUC), and the country contributed almost 900 soldiers to the U.N.
Operation in Burundi (ONUB), where former President Nelson Mandela played a leading role in
brokering a peace agreement. South African forces also played a key role in the African Union
Mission in Darfur (known by the acronym of AMIS), and now contribute to the U.N.-African
Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID).1 In a move believed by many to protest the Sudanese
government’s policies toward Darfur, the Mbeki government was instrumental in preventing
Sudan from attaining the chairmanship of the African Union in 2006. It has, however, protested
the imposition of tougher U.N. sanctions against Sudan as counterproductive.2 The country has
supported democratic advances elsewhere on the continent, providing millions of ballots in 2006
for elections in the DRC. In March 2007, the heads of state of the Southern African Development
Community (SADC) nominated then-President Mbeki to serve as a mediator between the
Zimbabwean government and the opposition in an effort to resolve that country’s political and
economic crises. Mbeki’s role has been controversial.
Political Situation
The Republic of South Africa held its first universal suffrage elections in April 1994. The African
National Congress (ANC), which had led the struggle against white minority rule and the
apartheid system of state-enforced racial segregation, won control of the National Assembly. The
Assembly chose as President Nelson Mandela, the ANC leader who had been released from
prison in 1990, after serving 27 years. His release followed years of secret contacts between the
ANC and key white business and political figures. These contacts had led both sides to conclude
that a settlement could be negotiated that would protect the interests of all South Africans. The
negotiations themselves encountered many difficulties, including several outbreaks of violence
that threatened to destroy the peace process. Finally, however, in November 1993, all-party
1 South Africa’s involvement in AMIS was not without controversy. Some opposition leaders criticized Mbeki for not
taking a more assertive role in the crisis, and some South African troops threatened to pull out of AMIS in late 2006
over a pay dispute.
2 “Sanctions Threat on Sudan Counterproductive: South Africa,” Agence France Presse, June 21, 2007.
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negotiations resulted in a final agreement on a new constitution and free elections, held in 1994.
South Africa’s second universal suffrage elections were held in June 1999, and the ANC retained
control of the National Assembly. Deputy President Thabo Mbeki, who had served in key ANC
posts overseas during the anti-apartheid struggle, was chosen by the Assembly to succeed
Mandela. Mbeki retained his position as President following the April 2004 parliamentary
elections, in which the ANC won almost 70% of the votes.
South Africa’s politics continue to be dominated by the ANC, which has enjoyed support among
many black South Africans because of its role in spearheading the long struggle against white
minority rule. Until December 2007, when he lost the party presidency to a rival, Thabo Mbeki
served as president both of the party and the country.3 He was expected to remain President of
South Africa until the 2009 elections but resigned from the position in September 2008. He was
replaced by an interim president, former Deputy ANC leader Kgalema Motlanthe. Following
Mbeki’s resignation, several prominent members of the party led a breakaway faction, now
known as the Congress of the People (COPE).
Prior to the 2009 elections, the ANC held a 72% majority of the seats in the 400-member National
Assembly, where the country’s legislative power principally resides, far ahead of its nearest rival,
the Democratic Alliance (DA), which had 12% of the seats. The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP),
headed by Mangosuthu Buthelezi, had about 6% of Assembly seats. Buthelezi, who has been
active in South African politics for decades, holds a Zulu chieftainship, and the party is largely
Zulu in membership. The IFP has experienced a steady decline in parliamentary seats since the
1994 election, while the ANC and the DA have gained electoral support. Other parties represented
in parliament include the New National Party (NNP, see below), the United Democratic
Movement (UDM), the Independent Democrats (ID), and the African Christian Democratic Party
(ACDP). The ANC also held majorities in all of South Africa’s nine provincial assemblies. In
addition to the National Assembly, there is a higher legislative body, the National Council of
Provinces (NCOP), with limited powers. The members of NCOP are chosen by the governments
of the nine provinces, all controlled by the ANC.
The Democratic Alliance
The second largest party in the National Assembly, the Democratic Alliance (DA), was created in
2000 through a merger of the Democratic Party (DP) and the New National Party (NNP), to
challenge ANC dominance of the political system. The merger surprised many analysts, since the
NNP was directly descended from the National Party, which had created apartheid and
established the white minority regime that ruled South Africa for more than 40 years. In contrast,
the DP, though also largely white, advocated a classical liberal platform and was heir to the
Progressive Party, which had strongly opposed apartheid and campaigned on human rights issues.
However, by allying, the two parties were able to ensure their control of the legislature of Western
Cape Province and of many local governments in the province, including the government of Cape
Town, in the 2000 local elections.4
DP leader Tony Leon, an articulate critic of the ANC with respect to the slow pace of
privatization, transparency, and other issues, became DA leader, with NNP head Marthinus van
3 Under the South African constitution, the President is elected by the National Assembly, and consequently, the next
President is likely to be chosen from the majority ANC party.
4 Tom Lodge, “The Future of South Africa’s Party System,” Journal of Democracy, Vol 17, No. 3, July 2006, p. 154.
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Schalkwyk as his deputy. The alliance soon fragmented in a way that has further enhanced the
power of the ANC in South African politics. In October 2001, van Schalkwyk announced that the
NNP would leave the DA and enter into a cooperative agreement with the ANC. The NNP leader
explained that the move would promote national unity and progress, while critics suggested that
he was primarily interested in securing government appointments for NNP leaders.5
Van Schalkwyk’s break with the DA precipitated a prolonged national debate over “floor
crossing”—that is, over whether elected NNP representatives in assemblies at the local,
provincial, and national levels should be permitted to cross over from the DA to the new
ANC/NNP alliance. Representatives at all levels in South Africa are elected not as individuals but
because their names appear on lists selected by each party. The proportion of the vote received by
a party in an election determines how many of those on its list will be given seats. Many argue
that floor crossing in such a system thwarts the will of the voters, and it had not been permitted in
South Africa. However, in 2002 the Constitutional Court allowed floor crossing at the local level,
throwing control of Cape Town and a number of other towns to the ANC and its NNP allies. The
National Assembly passed legislation in 2003 allowing MPs to change their party affiliation
during two week “window periods.” As a result of a September 2005 “window period,” the ANC
gained 14 seats, including all seven NNP parliamentarians and four DA MPs who complained of
racism within the party.
Although the ANC controls the provincial government of Western Cape, the city of Cape Town
remains the last major urban opposition bastion. Following a close win by the DA candidate
Helen Zille in 2006, the ANC began a controversial bid to change the city’s government from a
mayorally-dominated system to one run by a 10-member committee, which would have left the
current mayor a de facto figurehead. Subsequent criticism by the other parties appears to have
persuaded the ANC to drop its proposed restructuring plan. Zille replaced Tony Leon as head of
the DA party when he stepped down in May 2007.6 She became Premier of the Western Cape
following the 2009 elections.
Strains in the ANC Alliance
The ANC has long worked in an interlocking tripartite alliance with the Congress of South
African Trade Unions (COSATU) and the South African Communist Party (SACP). Leaders of
COSATU and the SACP sit on the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the ANC, which is
the party’s principal decision-making body. However, there has been considerable disagreement
among the ANC and its allies over the government’s economic reform programs. The
government’s first major economic strategy, known as Growth, Employment, and Redistribution
(GEAR), sought to spur economic growth by attracting foreign investment, strengthening the
private sector, and privatizing state-owned enterprises. COSATU and the SACP have argued that
this approach has failed to benefit South Africa’s poor. They favor the creation of programs that
would use state resources to create jobs and a moratorium on privatization. In 2005 the general
secretary of COSATU announced in a union meeting,
We want the ANC to be maintained as an organization primarily of the workers and the poor.
We will never hand over this weapon, built up with our blood, sweat, and tears, to the other
5 In November 2002, Mbeki named two NNP figures to positions as deputy ministers in his government. “Mbeki Gives
Van Schalkwyk Space with New Positions,” Business Day, November 5, 2002.
6 ”South Africa: Balanced Opposition,” Business Day, April 26, 2007.
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side on a silver platter. We will never let the ANC be privatized by the rich. It is a working
class formation and a left-wing liberation movement—it must remain ours.7
Former President Mbeki, on the other hand, argued that the ANC was a “broad church” capable of
representing socialists and nationalists and bridging class divisions.
COSATU was highly critical of Mbeki’s stance on the AIDS epidemic and his approach toward
the Zimbabwe situation (see below). In 2006, COSATU launched a general strike to protest the
loss of 100,000 jobs over the prior three years, primarily from the textile and mining industries. In
June 2007, the country’s trade unions launched what was reported to have been the biggest strike
since the end of apartheid, costing the economy an estimated $418 million.8 The unions, who
were demanding a 12% pay raise for public servants, accepted the government’s offer of a 7.5%
raise after four weeks of protest. More recent strikes, in July and August 2008, brought the
country’s mining industry to a standstill as workers protested rising food, fuel, and electricity
costs. These strikes were considered significant acts of defiance against the policies of the Mbeki
government. Speculation regarding a splintering of the ANC grew as the rift between COSATU,
its populist allies, and Mbeki supporters within the ANC widened.
The Succession Debate and Mbeki’s Resignation
As President Mbeki neared the end of his second term as president of the ANC, there was
considerable speculation on whom the party might choose for the position at the ANC’s national
congress in December 2007. Mbeki had suggested that he would not run for a third term. His
successor would be widely expected to succeed him as President of the country following the
national elections in 2009. Although the ANC’s party constitution allows for a competitive
leadership race, no party presidential candidacy had ever been contested. Mbeki’s dismissal of
Jacob Zuma as the country’s Deputy President in 2005 (see below) exposed divisions in the party
(Zuma remained deputy president of the party). He had been widely considered to be the likely
successor to Mbeki prior to these scandals. Zuma, a populist who has elicited strong support from
both youth and labor groups, as well as from his Zulu ethnic base, has been linked with a number
of controversies, including a 2006 rape allegation for which he was acquitted, and a high profile
corruption case (see “The Arms Deal and Other Corruption Scandals” below). Zuma made his
intention to vie for the party leadership post clear, and he was vocally supported by leaders from
COSATU and SACP, who claim he has been a victim of political conspiracy. After months of
speculation, Mbeki, rather than put his support behind a chosen successor, chose to run for a third
term as ANC president. Zuma won a decisive victory over Mbeki in a secret ballot vote at the
party congress, suggesting that Mbeki had alienated many party members.
Although he prevailed in the rape and initial corruption trials, Zuma continued to face legal
challenges. In November 2007, the Supreme Court of Appeal overturned a lower court decision
that had made documents seized from Zuma and his lawyer inadmissable in future proceedings.
Zuma was expected to go on trial again in August 2008 for racketeering, money laundering,
fraud, and corruption, but the date of his trial was postponed. In September, a High Court judge
ruled that the case should be thrown out on procedural grounds and suggested in his findings that
Mbeki and members of his administration had interfered in the case.
7 “Mbeki, Nzimande Clash Over Splits in Alliance,” Business Day, October 9, 2006.
8 “S Africa Unions Call Off Strike,” BBC, June 28, 2007.
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On September 20, 2008, after nine years in office, Thabo Mbeki announced that he had accepted
a request by the ANC’s National Executive Council to resign as President of South Africa in the
wake of the High Court decision. One-third of Mbeki’s cabinet resigned with their leader. Among
them was Finance Minister Trevor Manuel who, along with Reserve Bank Governor Tito
Mboweni, has been widely credited with guiding the country’s economic progress since the end
of white rule. The inflation rate rose above 13.7%, the highest level since the end of apartheid,
amid speculation of Manuel’s resignation; he was later reappointed. Other resignations have
followed, including that of the Gauteng province premier, who said that he would not be able to
“publicly explain or defend the national executive committee’s decision on comrade Thabo
Mbeki.”9 The parliament elected Kgalema Motlanthe, deputy leader of the ANC, as interim
President. Motlanthe, a former mine union leader who was imprisoned on Robben Island with
Mandela, had recently been appointed by the party as a Member of Parliament, which made him
eligible to assume the presidency.10 Zuma, who did not hold a parliamentary seat, was ineligible
to assume the office.
The judge issuing the High Court verdict on which the request for Mbeki’s resignation was based
made no findings on Zuma’s guilt or innocence. Prosecutors filed an appeal, and on January 12,
2009, the Supreme Court of Appeal overturned the High Court ruling. Zuma filed an appeal with
the Constitutional Court to have the charges, which he claims are politically motivated, dropped.
In March 2008, evidence of collusion between prosecutors, Mbeki, and several senior ANC
officials emerged, and, after extensive internal debate, the head of the National Prosecuting
Authority (NPA) dropped all charges against Zuma on April 5. Some analysts suggest that the
evidence does not affect the merits of the case, and questions have been raised on how that
evidence, recorded phone conversations, was obtained. The DA party has strongly criticized the
NPA for “grossly inadequate reasons” for its dismissal of Zuma’s case.11 The party has suggested
that it will appeal the decision. If Zuma’s trial had proceeded and if he were to have been found
guilty prior to the elections, he would have been ineligible to become President of South Africa.12
A New Party Emerges: The Congress of the People
In the wake of Mbeki’s resignation, several high-profile ANC figures, including the former
Gauteng premier, Mbhazima Shilowa, joined former Defense Minister Mosiuoa Lekota to
formally launch a new, centrist political party, the Congress of the People (COPE) in December
2008.13 The new party fared well in its first electoral contest, winning a third of the 27 seats in
Western Cape municipal by-elections in December.14 The party maintained momentum in the
press in early 2009 with a series of high profile defections from the ANC, including former South
African Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka and businessman Saki Macozoma. COPE
has selected Reverend Mvume Dandala as its presidential candidate. Dandala, who has formerly
9 “Manuel Plays Down Chance of ANC Split,” Mail and Guardian, September 30, 2008.
10 In South Africa, parties make appointments to fill vacant parliamentary seats, rather than holding by-elections.
Motlanthe was appointed as a member of parliament in May 2008 and was appointed to Mbeki’s cabinet in July 2008
as a Minister without Portfolio.
11 “DA Slams Dismissal of Probe into ‘Mbekigate’ Tapes,” Mail and Guardian, March 31, 2009.
12 South Africa’s constitution requires elections to be held within 90 days of the expiration of the National Assembly’s
five year term, on April 13, 2009. The new Assembly will choose the president after they are seated.
13 The ANC has challenged the party’s name in court.
14 The ANC is challenging a ruling by the Electoral Commission that barred party candidates from standing in 12 of the
27 constituencies.
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served as Presiding Bishop of the Methodist Church of Southern Africa and as head of the All
Africa Council of Churches, is well known for his role in campaigning against apartheid, but has
been criticized by the ANC for his relative lack of political experience. In the party’s early
months, some analysts suggested that COPE’s prospects in the election would be tied to Jacob
Zuma’s legal challenges. Although the charges against him were dropped, COPE and other
opposition parties have publicly maintained that the ANC manipulated the justice system to clear
their candidate for the elections.
The April 2009 Elections
South Africans went polls on April 22, 2009, for parliamentary and provincial elections.
Approximately 18,000 South Africans living abroad reportedly registered to vote after a court
ruling in March 2009 confirmed their right to participate in the elections. They began to cast their
ballots on April 15. In their campaigns, the opposition parties took similar stances on a number of
issues. Unlike the ANC, which supports the current electoral system, the opposition advocated for
the direct election of the president, provincial premiers, and mayors. The parties also challenged
the ANC’s decision to disband the country’s former elite anti-corruption unit, the Scorpions.
Media reports suggested that public disapproval over several recent ANC decisions, such as the
government’s refusal to issue a visa to the Dalai Lama, could affect voter support for the party.
The Dalai Lama had been invited to attend a peace conference in March 2009 along with several
other Nobel laureates, who threatened to boycott the event. Some reports suggest pressure from
China influenced the government’s decision, although government spokesman claims the visa
was denied because the Tibetan’s visit would have distracted from the World Cup, which was the
focus of the conference. Fellow laureate Desmond Tutu was publicly critical, as were opposition
leaders and Health Minister Barbara Hogan, who told reporters that the decision implied that the
government was “dismissive of human rights.”15 Nelson Mandela’s grandson, an organizer of the
event, suggested that the decision “tainted” South Africa’s democratic efforts.16 The event was
postponed.17
Voter turnout, estimated at 77 percent, was high for the April elections. The ANC maintained its
dominance but fell short of retaining its two-thirds majority in the parliament. The ANC now
holds 264 seats in the 400-seat assembly, while the main opposition party, the Democratic
Alliance (DA), holds 67 seats and gained control of one of the country’s nine provinces. COPE
received 7.4% of the 2009 vote, picking up 30 seats in the 400-seat parliament, while the Inkatha
Freedom Party received acquired only 18 seats. Jacob Zuma was subsequently chosen by the new
parliament to serve as South Africa’s newest President. Motlanthe now serves as Deputy
President.
Zuma was inaugurated as South Africa’s newest President on May 9, 2009, and he named his
cabinet the following day. Long-serving Finance Minister Trevor Manuel has been replaced by
the well respected former head of South Africa’s Revenue Service, Pravin Gordham. Manuel has
instead been named to head a new national planning commission that will formulate government
strategy. The appointments appear to have allayed market concerns that Zuma would shift the
15 “Govt: Hogan’s Dalai Lama Comments ‘Unfortunate,’” Mail and Guardian, March 25, 2009.
16 “S. Africans Angered by Decision to Deny Visa to Dalai Lama,” Washington Post, March 24, 2009.
17 President Zuma’s new Foreign Minister has reportedly announced that the Dalai Lama is now welcome to visit South
Africa at any time.
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country’s economic policy to the left. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has welcomed
the Zuma government’s pledge to continue “a strong economic program.”18 Health Minister
Barbara Hogan has been moved to the Ministry of Public Enterprises, while her replacement, a
physician and former provincial official, Aaron Motsoaledi. Businessman and senior ANC
member Tokyo Sexwale, who was once considered a possible successor to Mbeki, has been
named Minister of Human Settlements. Some analysts believe that his return to politics may
signal an interest in vying for the presidency.19 Jacob Zuma has reportedly vowed to serve only
one five-year term.
The Arms Deal and Other Corruption Scandals
The $5.5 billion arms purchase announced by South Africa in 1999 has continued to pose political
problems for senior members of the ANC, including Jacob Zuma. Questions remain over the
country’s need for aircraft, submarines, and surface vessels which were to be acquired under the
deal with five European firms. More pressing are allegations of corruption associated with the
purchase. Tony Yengeni, the ANC’s former chief whip in the National Assembly, was arrested in
2001 on charges of corruption, forgery, and perjury in connection with a large discount he
received for the purchase of a luxury car, allegedly in return for assuring that the deal went ahead.
He pled guilty to fraud in exchange for acquittal on corruption charges. President Mbeki later
fired Deputy President Jacob Zuma, after a judge declared Zuma had a “generally corrupt”
relationship with his former financial advisor, Schabir Shaik, who was convicted of fraud and
corruption in connection with the arms deal. Zuma was indicted but acquitted in September 2006,
after prosecutors failed to build a case against him. Shaik lost an appeal of his conviction in
November 2006, when judges ruled that evidence overwhelmingly supported the charge that
payments totaling about $165,000 made by Shaik to Zuma were bribes. 20 Shaik was released on
medical parole in March 2009. Critics maintain that several questions related to the arms deal
remain unresolved, and some are concerned that promised “offsets”—that is, investments by the
arms suppliers in South African industry—have not materialized.21 Former Archbishop Demond
Tutu and former South African President F.W. de Klerk have called for a new commission of
inquiry to be appointed to investigate the matter.
The local media has also focused attention on the “Travelgate” scandal, in which over thirty
current and former members of parliament, most from the ruling ANC party, have appeared in
court since 2005 on charges of corruption. Accused of abuse of official travel privileges, the MPs
reportedly stole some $3 million in government funds. According to Transparency International,
the prosecutions have shown that “the anti-corruption bodies and judiciary have a fair degree of
independence and are able to carry out their functions without hindrance, even when high ranking
18 Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton Interview With Manelisi Dubase of South African Broadcasting
Corporation, May 19, 2009.
19 “Zuma Calms Markets with New Cabinet,” BBC, May 10, 2009.
20 Shaik was released on medical parole in March 2009.
21 “The Arms Deal—The Shadows Lengthen,” Business Day, September 20, 2006; “SA Laureates Demand Arms
Inquiry,” BBC, December 4, 2008.
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members of the ANC were involved.”22 More recently, civic activists have raised concern with
comments on the judiciary by senior ANC official in relation to the Zuma case.23
“Travelgate” was followed by another reported scandal popularly referred to as “Oilgate,” an
allegedly corrupt oil deal between a state-owned oil company and a black economic
empowerment company (see below), in which public funds were reportedly illegally diverted into
an ANC party campaign fund. To add to the controversy, one of the country’s leading newspapers,
the Mail & Guardian, was banned by the courts from publishing a report on the scandal.
According to media reports, the court ruling found that publishing the report would damage the
oil company’s right to privacy and was potentially defamatory.24 The gag order was reportedly the
first placed on the paper since apartheid, and was denounced as “an extraordinarily dangerous
precedent” to press freedom by the Media Institute for Southern Africa, a press watchdog group.
Several corruption scandals have centered on the country’s justice organs themselves. South
Africa’s chief prosecutor, Vusi Pikoli, was suspended in September 2007 on charges of
prosecutorial excess by then-President Mbeki. Many suggest that the subsequent arrest of national
police commissioner Jackie Selebi amid allegations that he might have ties to organized crime
was directly linked to Pikoli’s suspension.25 Pikoli had been preparing warrants for Selebi’s arrest
when he was suspended. Selebi, a senior ANC member, is widely considered to be a Mbeki
supporter within the party, and some South Africans accused Mbeki of trying to prevent Selebi’s
arrest. Pikoli was later cleared of wrongdoing, but was not reappointed to his post. Selebi has also
been replaced as police commissioner.
The Pikoli and Selebi cases suggest rising political tensions within the country’s law enforcement
agencies. As chief prosecutor, Pikoli oversaw the Scorpions (the Directorate of Special
Operations), South Africa’s financial crimes investigative unit. Several leading ANC officials led
efforts to have the Scorpions, who have prosecuted several high profile corruption cases,
including that of Zuma, disbanded. Zuma and his allies criticized the Scorpions’ prosecution of
him as politically motivated and suggested in mid-2008 that the Scorpions’ duties should be
subsumed by the national police. Others, including DA and COPE leaders, argue that the unit’s
“special status” under the National Prosecuting Authority is needed to tackle corruption at the
highest levels. Despite strong opposition from the opposition and civil society, the unit was
officially moved by parliament under the authority of the police service in October 2008.
Allegations of collusion between Mbeki allies and former heads of both the scorpions and the
NPA have raised further questions.
HIV/AIDS
With an estimated 5.7 million South Africans living with HIV in 2007, the country is believed to
have the largest AIDS epidemic in the world. According to the Joint United Nations Program on
HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), an estimated 18.1% of South African adults, aged 15-49, were HIV
22 Berlin-based Transparency International (TI) describes itself as a non-governmental organization devoted to
combating corruption. TI, Global Corruption Report 2006.
23 “Judiciary Should be Protected from Scandalous Commentary,” Pretoria News, July 11, 2008.
24 The Media Institute of Southern Africa, “Media Freedom Has ‘Suffered Major Blow,’” May 28, 2005.
25 See, for example, “Lets All Arrest One Another,” The Economist, January 17, 2008 and “Party Power Struggle
Enthralls South Africa,” New York Times, October 12, 2007.
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positive that year.26 UNAIDS also reports that as many as 280,000 children under the age of 15
were HIV positive. AIDS is the leading cause of premature death in South Africa, and the number
of AIDS-related deaths there in 2007, some 350,000, was more than double that reported for
Nigeria, which has the second highest global mortality figure at 170,000 deaths but almost three
times South Africa’s population. Approximately 1.4 million children currently living in the
country have been orphaned by the disease. As these figures show, the situation is grave.
Thabo Mbeki’s stance on HIV/AIDS was a major political issue in South Africa during his tenure.
Critics maintain that the former President’s ambiguous statements about the disease and lack of
leadership on the issue diverted attention and funding from the pandemic at a critical time. In
2000, President Mbeki wrote to then-President Clinton and other heads of state defending
dissident scientists who maintain that AIDS is not caused by the HIV virus. In 2001, he rejected
appeals that the National Assembly declare the AIDS pandemic a national emergency. In 2002,
President Mbeki drew criticism from the media and others for reportedly insisting that
tuberculosis rather than AIDS was the leading cause of death in South Africa, even though the
country’s Medical Research Council had reported that AIDS was the leading cause, accounting
for 40% of mortality among adults aged 15-49.27 The reasons for Mbeki’s stance on AIDS have
been difficult to discern, particularly given that he might have reaped great political advantage
from becoming a leader in fighting the epidemic. Some speculate that he feared that AIDS could
undermine his vision of South Africa as a leader in an African renaissance sparked by NEPAD
and the African Union and thus tended to minimize the importance of the epidemic.
The Mbeki government gradually modified its stance on HIV/AIDS under mounting domestic
and international pressure. In 2002, the government announced that it would triple the national
AIDS budget, end official opposition to the provision of antiretrovirals for rape victims, and
launch a program for universal access to drugs to prevent mother-to-child transmission (MTCT)
of HIV. In July 2002, a South African court ordered the government to begin providing the
antiretroviral (ARV) drug Nevirapine nationwide to reduce MTCT. The South African Treatment
Action Campaign (TAC) had launched the suit in 2001, maintaining that MTCT prevention trials
were inadequate and that 20,000 babies could be saved yearly by a nationwide program.28 At its
December 2002 party conference the ANC announced that it was “putting AIDS at the top of our
agenda.”29 The Department of Health in 2003 declared that the government would provide free
antiretroviral drugs, but after what observers considered a very slow implementation of the
policy, TAC threatened another lawsuit. Under pressure, the government began providing
treatment at five hospitals in 2004 and has gradually expanded access to the program. Reports
suggest that access to treatment for those with advanced HIV has since increased significantly,
from only 4 percent of those in need receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in 2004 to 21 percent
in 2006.30
Despite this commitment by the government to providing ART, many critics still did not consider
the Mbeki administration to be serious about the epidemic. In August 2006, then-Health Minister
26 UNAIDS, 2008 Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic, August 2008.
27 “South Africa President Mbeki Criticizes U.N. AIDS Fund Grant,” Associated Press, July 25, 2002, and “Research
Affirms Disease Is Nation’s Leading Cause of Death,” The Washington Post, October 19, 2001.
28 “AIDS Activists Sue South Africa,” Associated Press, August 21, 2001.
29 Reuters. President Mbeki was criticized by some, however, for not giving the AIDS epidemic greater prominence in
his address to the conference.
30 UNAIDS, 2008 Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic, August 2008.
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Manto Tshabalala-Msimang drew international criticism for a controversial display of traditional
remedies such as garlic, lemons, and beetroot, which she reportedly claimed provided an
alternative defense to AIDS, at the International AIDS Conference in Toronto. Stephen Lewis, the
U.N. Special Envoy to Africa on AIDS, proclaimed South Africa’s AIDS policies as “wrong,
immoral, and indefensible” and “worthy of a lunatic fringe” during the conference, and 81
international scientists delivered a petition to Mbeki urging the health minister’s dismissal.31
Many observers consider the Toronto Conference to have prompted a key shift in the
government’s position. Weeks after the conference, Mbeki appointed his Deputy President,
Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, as head of a new national AIDS commission charged with halving the
country’s infection rate by 2011. She emphasized that the government did believe that HIV causes
AIDS and acknowledged “shortcomings” in the government’s response to the epidemic. The
government also reached out to the AIDS advocacy community, which responded with cautious
optimism. TAC, the most vocal critic of the Mbeki Administration’s efforts, was cited in late 2006
saying that there was now “a growing enthusiasm, across the board, around the possibility of
what we can do as a country in a united fashion” to combat the disease.32 However, TAC more
recently questioned Mbeki’s commitment to fighting the epidemic after the August 2007 firing of
Tshabalala-Msimang’s deputy, who was outspoken about problems with the nation’s health
services and critical of the Health Minister’s controversial views on AIDS.
Although experts believe the country’s prevalence rates have begun to stabilize, the South African
government still faces many challenges in its response to HIV/AIDS.33 The emergence of
extensively drug resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB), high rates of HIV/TB co-infection, and
significant HIV prevalence rates among health care workers place major strains on the health care
system. AIDS activists responded positively to President Motlanthe’s appointment of a new
health minister, Barbara Hogan.
Land Reform
In order to address historic injustices, the South African government began a land reform program
in the late 1990s to restore land rights to those forcibly dispossessed of their land under racially
discriminatory apartheid legislation. The government set a number of targets, including the
settlement of all land claims34 by the end of 2008 and the more ambitious transfer of 30% of
agricultural lands owned by whites in 1994 to African owners by 2014. While the government’s
“willing buyer, willing seller” land reform policies have reportedly met with little resistance from
white landowners, and the Land Affairs Department reports that almost all land claims have been
settled, critics charge that the transfers are going too slowly. According to media reports, the
government announced in August 2006 that negotiations with white farmers over the price of land
marked for restitution would be limited to six months, after which expropriation could take place
if no settlement was reached.35 Two months later, two white-owned farms claimed by black South
31 The letter, titled “Expression of Concern by HIV Scientists,” can be found at http://www.aidstruth.org/letter-to-
mbeki.php. See also “Under Fire, South Africa Shakes Up Its Strategy Against AIDS,” The New York Times,
September 3, 2006, and “In South Africa, a Dramatic Shift on AIDS; Treatment, Prevention Get New Emphasis as
Deputy President Takes Key Role,” The Washington Post, October 27, 2006.
32 “Under Fire, South Africa Shakes Up Its Strategy Against AIDS,” The New York Times, September 3, 2006.
33 The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, “HIV/AIDS Policy Fact Sheet,” October 2008.
34 Black citizens have filed over 79,700 land claims since January 1999, according to a report by Michael Wines,
“South Africa to Seize Two White-Owned Farms,” New York Times, October 10, 2006.
35 “ANC Gives Ultimatum to White Farmers,” The Daily Telegraph, August 14, 2006.
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Africans were marked for expropriation, a process through which the government would seize the
land and pay the owners a price set by independent assessors.36 This ruling was seen by some
analysts as signaling a sense of urgency on the part of the government to speed up reforms.
In a 2005 speech on the perceived slow pace of land transfers, then-Deputy President Mlambo-
Ngcuka said that South Africa might learn from Zimbabwe’s land reform process, igniting
considerable controversy. President Mbeki dismissed critics of the speech, saying the Deputy
President’s words were misinterpreted and that Zimbabwe’s policies were only one among many
the government had studied. The media reported a similarly controversial discussion document
circulated by the Land Affairs Department suggesting replacing the “willing buyer, willing seller”
approach with a “Zimbabwean model,” or forced-sale principle (Zimbabwe’s policy that preceded
the country’s land invasions). Under this proposed model, farmers who want to sell their land
must offer the government the right of first refusal. If they refused a government offer, they could
not sell the land on the open market. The discussion paper was said to propose the expropriation
of commercial agricultural land to meet the government’s target of 30% redistribution. At that
time, government officials stressed that the document was for internal discussion only and did not
reflect official policy.37
In 2008, the Mbeki Administration appeared determined to speed up the transfer of commercial
agricultural lands. Official figures suggest that the government has met only 5% of its 30% target
for state-funded transfers, and the Land Affairs Department suggests that sellers are demanding
excessively high prices. The government tabled legislation before parliament in July that would
accelerate the process by adding a constitutional provision for expropriation of a property “for a
public purpose.” Critics, including the Democratic Alliance, argued that the proposed law, which
would restrict property owners’ rights to judicial appeal and force sales at below market prices,
would undermine confidence in property rights and deter investment.38 They also suggest that
while the rate of state-funded transfers has been slow, substantial transfers have been made
privately through the property market. The legislation was shelved, but some speculate that it will
be resubmitted. In March 2008, the government introduced a controversial new “use it or lose it”
initiative that allows farms that have been transferred to black beneficiaries to be taken by the
government if they are deemed unproductive.
In a 2004 survey of South Africans of all races, 72% of black respondents agreed with the
statement: “All the land whites own, they stole from blacks.”39 According to an independent
South African think tank,
The most universal and immediate land need in South Africa is for ‘a place to stay’ rather
than ‘a place to farm’.... Even among employed agricultural workers, land demand is modest.
Among people living on the land without alternative sources of income, however, aspirations
for land or more land can reach high levels, and become very intense. Although this is a
36 “South Africa to Seize Two White-Owned Farms, New York Times, October 10, 2006.
37 “‘Zimbabwe’ Land Option Mooted by Officials,” Business Day, October 16, 2006.
38 “Expropriation Must Be a Land Resort,” Business Day, May 30, 2008.
39 In a survey of 3500 respondents 2004, South Africans were asked to respond to the statement: “All the land whites
own, they stole from the blacks.” and were asked to present their responses in a range, from “strongly agree” to
“strongly disagree.” Over 72% responded “strongly agree” or “agree.” Cited in “Land Issue Illustrates Social Rift,”
Business Day, 5 May 2004.
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minority group, it is large in numerical terms, and hence constitutes a significant policy
challenge.40
The targets for reform set by the ANC government have set public expectations high, and some
analysts suggest that the perceived pace of land reform may be an issue in the 2009 elections.
Crime
As South Africa prepares to host hundreds of thousands of tourists during the soccer World Cup
in 2010, the government continues to battle perceptions that the country is not safe for tourists
because of its high crime rate. According to one survey, one-third of potential tourists have been
deterred from visiting South Africa out of fear of becoming victim to a criminal act.41 Some
analysts attribute the high rate of crime to the country’s high level of wealth disparity, but also to
shortcomings within the police force and in the lack of a comprehensive government approach.
South African officials have acknowledged the problem. In February 2007, then-President Mbeki
admitted crime had created a high level of fear around the country, and the South African Safety
and Security Minister called the high number of cases of violent crime “disconcerting and
unacceptable.”42 The government plans to recruit 30,000 new police officers before the games.
The Economy
South Africa won praise from international economists for its reform-oriented macro-economic
policy in the late 1990s, which, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce, “demonstrated
its commitment to open markets, privatization, and a favorable investment climate, moving away
from the former government’s strategy of import substitution and industrial development that
protected local industries with high tariff barriers.”43 The policy, known as the Growth,
Employment and Redistribution (GEAR) strategy, delivered mixed results—it engendered
macroeconomic stability, fiscal discipline, and trade liberalization. However, unemployment
continued to rise, and income distribution did not show signs of significant improvement.
Nevertheless, the income of the average black household almost doubled in the first decade after
the end of apartheid.44
The rate of growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) averaged 3% per year in the first decade
after apartheid and rose to an average of 5% from 2004 to 2007. The growth rate fell to an
estimated 3.2% in 2008, due in part to the global economic downturn, and is expected to decrease
to 1.2% in 2009 before rising above 3% again in 2010.45 Much higher growth rates will be needed
if South Africa is to substantially increase employment among the black majority and reduce the
40 The Centre for Development and Enterprise, Land Reform in South Africa: a 21st Century Perspective, Johannesburg:
June 2005, p. 30.
41 “Crime ‘Deters’ SA 2010 Tourists,” BBC, July 23, 2007.
42
“SA Violent Crime ‘Unacceptable,’” BBC, July 3, 2007.
43 U.S. Department of Commerce, South Africa Country Commercial Guide, Fiscal Year 2003, July 2002.
44 The average household income for blacks increased by 71% from 1996 to 2004, according to the South African
Institute for Race Relations’ South Africa Survey 2004/2005.
45 The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Country Report: South Africa, December 2008.
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sharp inequalities in income distribution among the races. Unemployment estimates range from
25% to 40%, far above the government’s target of 15%. The vast, poverty-stricken townships
surrounding South Africa’s cities remain a potential source of political instability. In recent years
periodic riots have erupted in several poor municipalities to protest local government corruption
and inadequate service delivery. Although turnout and support for the ANC remained high
nationally in the country’s last nationwide municipal elections, voters boycotted the polls in a
number of townships in which the ANC had formerly enjoyed strong support, and several
hundred former ANC supporters stood as independent candidates. Conditions in the townships
have improved marginally with the expanded availability of electricity and the provision of clean
water taps. However, popular resentment is reportedly deepening with respect to the widening
gap between the rich and poor.
Some economists attribute South Africa’s economic difficulties, in part, to the slow pace of
privatization. Despite its commitment to privatization, the government remains heavily involved
in transportation, communications, energy production, and the defense sector, and after the 2004
elections expressed a desire to restructure most remaining state-owned enterprises rather than
expand privatization. Delays are due partly to government concerns that privatization will boost
unemployment temporarily, fueling criticism from COSATU and the SACP. Moreover, the
government is trying to find ways to promote “black empowerment” by assuring that a significant
portion of the shares in privatized companies will be acquired by black South Africans rather than
by wealthy whites or foreign investors. Another point of view, championed by COSATU and the
SACP, is that job cutbacks that often follow privatization are contributing to unemployment and
the growing income gap in South Africa. Some argue that the government should intervene in the
economy to save jobs, and to create new jobs, perhaps through a major public works program.
In 2005, the government unveiled its new Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for South
Africa (ASGISA), which is designed to raise the average economic growth rate to 4.5% from
2004-2009 and to at least 6% from 2010-1014 through targeted interventions, including public
investment in infrastructure. The ASGISA plan also aims, through these economic growth
policies, to cut unemployment rates in half by 2014; some experts consider these targets
impossible for the country to meet.46 Another economic program, the government’s Black
Economic Empowerment (BEE) program, was initiated in 1994 and is designed to address racial
inequalities in the business sector. In 1994, blacks owned less than 5% of the country’s private
enterprises. As of mid-2008 there were over 15 black-owned and 29 black-empowered companies
listed on the South African stock exchange. The rise in black ownership has been echoed by a
significant increase in the black middle class. Nevertheless, the lack of skilled labor may be
hampering the success of the program, as may complicated or unclear regulations. According to a
2005 survey of domestic and foreign firms, “While supporting the need for affirmative action,
most foreign investors acknowledge that the lack of clarity surrounding the application of Black
Economic Empowerment has had a dampening effect on their plans to further invest in South
Africa.”47 In February 2007, the government instituted the BEE Codes of Good Practice, which
make both listed and unlisted companies subject to empowerment requirements and targets, but
offers concessions to small businesses and foreign investors.48 In September 2007, Sasol, the
46 EIU, December 2008.
47 United States Department of Commerce, “Doing Business in South Africa: A Country Commercial Guide for U.S.
Companies,” 2006.
48 Multinational corporations can maintain 100% ownership provided they meet other BEE criteria, including
employment and procurement targets.
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country’s oil and coal company, announced its intention to transfer 10% of the company to black
owners to qualify under BEE rules.
In the first decade of post-apartheid rule, analysts expressed concern over the government’s
ability to attract foreign investment at the levels needed to spur growth. Sound macroeconomic
policies, including reduced tariffs and export subsidies, the loosening of exchange controls,
improved enforcement of intellectual property laws, and legislation designed to improve
competition have been cited by observers as responsible for the country’s economic growth. A
World Bank study found that South Africa is one of the top 35 easiest countries in which to do
business.49 Investors are, however, reportedly worried by labor relations, high crime rates, and
corruption. Transparency International ranks South Africa 54 out of 158 in its 2008 Corruption
Perceptions Index, indicating that it is perceived as less corrupt than other Sub-Saharan African
countries (only three African countries ranked less corrupt than South Africa), but more corrupt
than many competitors for investment in other parts of the world.50 Its ranking fell from 43 in
2007. Political risks arising from regional instability, particularly in Zimbabwe, are regarded as
another deterrent to investors, and South Africa’s own racial, class, and political divisions are
seen as sources of concern. The resignation of President Mbeki shook investor confidence. Some
studies suggest that business confidence is at it lowest level in five years, due in part to instability
in the global financial markets but also because of concerns regarding in-fighting within the
ANC.51
As Africa’s largest economy, South Africa has been affected by the recent global economic
downturn, and its retail, mining, and manufacturing sectors have declined. Economists warn that
South Africa’s unemployment rate could rise in 2009, with the country losing up to 300,000
jobs.52 As discussed above, however, the economy is expected to rebound in 2010. Some analysts
have highlighted the country’s executive “brain drain” as one of greatest threats to South Africa’s
economic progress. They also suggest that the outcome of the debate over the role of state
assistance may have the greatest effect on the country’s capability to meet ASGISA goals.
Electricity Shortages
The country’s continued economic growth is also threatened by an overstretched electricity
network. In January 2008, South Africans experienced severe electrical power cuts throughout the
country. Estimates indicate that the cuts may have cost the economy millions.53 The crucial
mining sector was hit particularly hard, causing global gold and platinum prices to rise. Many
mines closed for several days as the power cuts threatened worker safety. Electricity from South
Africa was also temporarily cut to neighboring countries. State-owned Eskom, the world’s fourth
largest power company, and the Mbeki Administration blamed one another for the crisis. The
government has begun rationing electricity and is accelerating plans to build new power plants
49 The country rose from a ranking of 35 in 2008 to 32 in 2009. See the Doing Business section of the World Bank’s
website at http://www.worldbank.org.
50 The Transparency International index is based on the reported perceptions of business people and country analysts. A
country with the rank of 1 has the least corruption.
51 The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Country Report: South Africa, September 2008.
52 “South Africa Leader Welcomes G20” BBC, April 3, 2009.
53 EIU, “South Africa: Power Down,” January 31, 2008.
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and rehabilitate old ones. Experts suggest the shortages may nevertheless continue for several
years, and consumers have faced steep increases in their power bills.54
U.S. Relations
U.S. policies toward South Africa and the anti-apartheid struggle were a contentious issue from
the 1960s through the 1980s, with many arguing that the United States was doing too little to
promote human rights and democratic rule. Congress enacted the Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid
Act of 1986 (P.L. 99-440) over President Reagan’s veto in order to affirm U.S. support for
democratic change. The legislation imposed a number of sanctions against South Africa. The
Reagan Administration, by contrast, had been pursuing a policy of “constructive engagement”
(i.e., dialogue) with the white South African regime, regarding this approach as the most effective
way of promoting change.
In the early 1990s, the United States assumed a lead role in supporting South Africa’s transition to
democracy. Policy makers at that time saw the South African democratization process as a model
for other African countries, and expected that the country would soon become a stabilizing force
as well as an engine for economic growth throughout the sub-Saharan region. South Africa’s need
to focus on domestic economic and social problems meant that U.S. expectations for the country’s
regional role were perhaps not met in full in the first post-apartheid years. But South Africa’s
leadership in the launching of NEPAD; the deployment of South African peacekeepers to
Burundi, Cote d’Ivoire, and Sudan; and intensive South African involvement in the peace process
in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have highlighted South Africa’s capabilities as a
regional actor. South Africa also assisted U.S. efforts to resolve the Haiti crisis by providing an
exile location for former President Bertrand Aristide. Given South Africa’s role in conflict
mediation and resolution throughout the continent, the United States has worked to expand the
country’s peacekeeping abilities through the African Contingency Operations Training Assistance
(ACOTA) program.55
Since 1992, South Africa has been among the leading African recipients of U.S. aid. U.S.
assistance to South Africa has increased in recent years, rising from an estimated $224 million in
FY2006, to $398 million in FY2007. The Bush Administration obligated an estimated $574
million for FY2008, and requested almost $576 million for FY2009.56 In its FY2008
congressional budget justification, the State Department reported that “the U.S. Government’s
(USG) relationship with South Africa is transforming from that of donor to one of strategic
partnership,” and accordingly, “activities in Peace and Security will continue to increase in
importance while development programs will be phased out in the next couple of years.” U.S.
assistance will continue to focus on fighting HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis and assisting the South
African government to implement economic reforms and to improve its regional peacekeeping
capacity. USAID programs have supported efforts to promote sound governance, reduce
unemployment and poverty, increase access to shelter and basic municipal services, and improve
54 “South African Power Cuts Threaten Economic Growth; Jobs,” VOA News, January 31, 2008.
55 For more information see CRS Report RL32773, The Global Peace Operations Initiative: Background and Issues for
Congress, by Nina M. Serafino.
56 On December 26, the President signed into law the FY2008 Consolidated Appropriations Act (H.R. 2764/P.L. 110-
161), which included State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs appropriations for FY2008. Country-specific
allocations have not yet been released.
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the quality of education and the country’s health system. U.S. assistance includes $850,000 in
International Military Education and Training (IMET) programs in South Africa.
The United States provides significant assistance to South Africa’s fight against HIV/AIDS
through the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), having contributed over
$1,447 million since the program’s inception in FY2004. The Bush Administration requested
$557 million for FY2009 through the Global HIV/AIDS Initiative. By the end of FY2008, the
PEPFAR program had provided ARV therapy to an estimated 549,700 patients, transmission
prevention treatment to over 462,400 pregnant HIV-infected women, and palliative and/or
tuberculosis care for 1,852,700 South Africans. PEPFAR’s South Africa program also funds
public education efforts to promote abstinence, faithfulness, and healthy behavior to reduce the
risk of transmission among high-risk groups.
The 110th Congress took steps to address lingering restrictions on U.S. visas for members of the
ANC, including former Presidents Mbeki and Mandela, who were convicted under the previous
apartheid government of crimes against that regime. In May 2008, the House of Representatives
passed H.R. 5690, sponsored by House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Howard Berman.
The legislation removed the ANC from treatment as a terrorist organization, instructed U.S.
government agencies to remove any terrorist designations regarding the ANC and its leaders from
their databases, and gave discretion to the State and Homeland Security Departments in
determining admissibility of visa applicants based upon specified criminal convictions or terrorist
activities undertaken in opposition to apartheid rule. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice called
the restrictions “embarassing.”57 Senator John Kerry introduced companion legislation, S. 2979.
Members of the 110th Congress also introduced legislation honoring Mandela, H.Res. 1090, and
Archbishop Desmond Tutu, H.Res. 34.
Cooperation in Fighting Terrorism
U.S. and South African law enforcement authorities have cooperated for several years on
terrorism investigations, including investigations into the possibility that South Africa has been
used as a haven for Islamic militants from outside the region.58 In 1999, South African authorities
arrested Khalfan Khamis Mohamed, a Tanzanian later convicted in the bombing of the U.S.
embassy in Dar es Salaam, and deported him to the United States. Khalfan had reportedly sought
to hide among Cape Town’s Muslims after he fled Tanzania. More recently, one of the suspects of
the 2005 London bombings, Haroon Rashid Aswat, who was arrested in Zambia, was thought to
have spent time in South Africa. There is continuing concern that other terrorists may seek to hide
in South Africa, or make use of its modern transportation and communications systems for transit,
smuggling, and money-laundering.59
The U.S. Department of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) includes several
South African nationals in its Specially Designated Nationals List (SDN), which sanctions
individuals and groups believed to have links to terrorism. In a controversial move, the South
African government used its position in 2007 as a member of the U.N. Security Council’s Al-
57 “Congressman Wants to End U.S. Travel Restrictions against Mandela and the ANC,” Voice of America, April 10,
2008.
58 “SA, US Work in Tandem to Find Terrorist Cells,” Business Day, December 11, 2002.
59 “Spreading Influence: In South Africa, Mounting Evidence of al Qaeda Links,” Wall Street Journal, December 10,
2002.
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Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions Committee, also known as the 1276 Committee, to block United
Nations travel and financial sanctions on two of these individuals, Farhad Ahmed Dockrat and Dr.
Junaid Ismail Dockrat. The South African government argued that it required more time to
examine the evidence against the Dockrats before applying sanctions.
There is concern over the potential use of South African travel documents by would-be terrorists.
At the time of his arrest, Haroon Rashid Aswat was carrying a South African passport, and
according to media reports, others with suspected ties to terrorism have been apprehended at U.S.
and British borders, as well as in Pakistan, with South African travel documents.60 The U.S. State
Department’s Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism has noted concern regarding
fraudulent travel documents, saying, “efforts to limit the accessibility of passports and identity
documents to potential terrorists are limited by resources and corruption in the Department of
Home Affairs.”61 South African passports were found during raids by British police on suspected
terror groups in London in 2004 and 2005. South Africa’s intelligence minister reported in August
2005 that groups allegedly linked to al-Qaeda had been discovered in southern Africa and that
maritime targets could be threatened. U.S. law enforcement agencies provide training to their
South African counterparts, supply needed equipment to the South Africa Police Service, and
share information.62
The South African government has expressed differences with the United States in the latter’s
designation of Hamas and Hezbollah as terrorist organizations. In May 2007, prior to the Hamas
military seizure of the Gaza Strip, the South African Minister of Intelligence met with Hamas
leader and then-Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority Ismail Haniyeh. According to some
media reports, he publically praised Hamas and invited Haniyeh to visit South Africa.
Diplomatic Differences
Despite the cordial relations that officially exist between South Africa and the United States,
some analysts suggest that diplomatic differences highlight what former U.S. Assistant Secretary
of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer referred to as a “rough patch” in U.S.-South African
relations.63 As one U.S. official pointed out, the country has had close ties with the Non-Aligned
Movement countries, and has exhibited “marked sympathy toward countries that exert their
independence from the West.”64 Some South African officials expressed opposition to the Bush
Administration’s initial proposal to locate the new U.S. combatant command, Africa Command or
AFRICOM, on the continent.65 However, the government later allowed a historic visit by a U.S.
aircraft carrier, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, in October 2008, and military relations are
reportedly improving. South Africa has taken a critical stance toward the war in Iraq, and former
President Nelson Mandela has been vocal in his opposition to what he views as U.S. unilateralism
60 “Arrests and Plots Give South Africans a New Program,” New York Times, August 9, 2004.
61 U.S. Department of State, 2005 Country Reports on Terrorism http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/crt/2005/.
62 “Law Enforcement,” available at the website of the U.S. Embassy in Pretoria http://usembassy.state.gov/pretoria.
63 Janine Zacharia, “U.S. Finds an Antagonist in a Country on the Rise,” International Herald Tribune, June 27, 2007.
64 Remarks by Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Linda Thomas-Greenfield, “U.S.-South Africa Relations: The View
from Washington,” Washington, D.C., September 14, 2006.
65 According to South African media reports, in July 2007, the U.S. Ambassador to South Africa, Eric Bost, publicly
expressed frustration that the country’s defense minister would not respond to requests for a meeting with General Kip
Ward, commander of AFRICOM. For more information, see CRS Report RL34003, Africa Command: U.S. Strategic
Interests and the Role of the U.S. Military in Africa, by Lauren Ploch.
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on Iraq. South Africa has also differed significantly with the United States on Iran. During an
2006 visit by the Iranian Foreign Minister to Pretoria, South Africa affirmed its support for Iran’s
“inalienable right to pursue nuclear energy for peaceful purposes,” at the same time that the
Mbeki government announced its intention to consider renewing its uranium enrichment
program.66 South Africa, which dismantled its own nuclear weapons program after the fall of
apartheid, insisted that any enrichment program would be strictly peaceful in nature.
The United Nations
South Africa’s recent role as a non-permanent member of the U.N. Security Council was
controversial, and the South African government has been criticized by the United States as well
as by many human rights activists for its lack of support for human rights issues raised before the
Council.67 In January 2007, South Africa voted against a resolution on political prisoners in
Burma, arguing that alleged human rights abuses in sovereign countries are not covered by the
mandate of the Security Council as defined by the U.N. Charter. It argued that because the abuses
do not pose a direct threat to international peace and security, they would be more appropriately
addressed by the U.N. Human Rights Council.68 In March 2007, while serving a one-month term
as President of the Security Council, South Africa reportedly blocked discussion of human rights
abuses in Zimbabwe.69 Nobel laureate Archbishop Desmond Tutu said of the Burma vote, in
which China and Russia cast a double veto, “I am deeply disappointed by our vote. It is a betrayal
of our own noble past...The tyrannical military regime is gloating, and we sided with them. If
others had used the arguments we are using today when we asked them for their support against
apartheid, we might still have been unfree,”70 Former DA leader Tony Leon expressed similar
sentiments on his government’s alleged refusal to address the Zimbabwe situation, calling it
“extraordinary irony” that the ANC government would use the same argument used to block
debate on the abuses of the former apartheid regime in South Africa.71
In July 2008, South Africa voted with Russia, China, Vietnam, and Libya in opposition to a U.S.-
sponsored resolution on Zimbabwe (S/2008/447) that called for targeted sanctions on select
members of the Mugabe regime, an international arms embargo, the appointment of a U.N.
Special Representative on Zimbabwe, and the creation of a Panel of Experts to monitor and
evaluate the situation and the effects of the sanctions.
South Africa and the United States also differed on Middle East issues addressed by the Security
Council. In May 2007, South Africa abstained from a U.S.-sponsored resolution to establish an
international tribunal to investigate political killings in Lebanon, arguing that although it
supported a tribunal with “Lebanese ownership,” it was not appropriate for the Security Council
to impose a tribunal upon the country and “politicize international criminal law.”72 The country
was vocal in its opposition to Security Council sanctions on both Sudan and Iran, arguing that
66 “South Africa’s Support for Iran’s Nuclear Program ‘Holds Firm’,” BBC Monitoring Africa, September 1, 2006.
67 See, for example, Colum Lynch, “South Africa’s U.N. Votes Disappoint Some,” Washington Post, April 16, 2007;
James Kirchick, “Why, the Beloved Country?,” Los Angeles Times, July 29, 2007.
68 U.N. document, S/2007/14, January 12, 2007.
69 “Britain Wants U.N. Security Council Attention on Zimbabwe,” Voice of America, March 16, 2007.
70 “Desmond Tutu ‘deeply disappointed with South Africa’s vote against U.N Security Council resolution on
Myanmar,”International Herald Tribune, January 21, 2007.
71 “South Africa Reportedly Blocking U.N. Debate on Zimbabwe Crisis,” Business Day, March 20, 2007.
72 China, Indonesia, the Russian Federation, and Qatar also abstained. U.N. document, S/2007/315, May 30, 2007.
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such sanctions would ultimately harden the target governments’ positions rather than reduce
tensions. However, after efforts to modify resolution language, South Africa ultimately did vote
for sanctions against Iran in March 2007, “to remind Iran of its responsibility towards the IAEA
and the Nonproliferation Treaty.”73
Zimbabwe 74
Political and economic turmoil in neighboring Zimbabwe has led to a massive exodus of
Zimbabweans in search of work. A recent nationwide outbreak of cholera in Zimbabwe
exacerbated the flight. Some sources estimate that as many as four million Zimbabweans (30% of
the total population) are now living outside the country. South African government sources
reported a sharp increase in border crossings after the Zimbabwean government implemented
price controls on basic commodities in June 2007. Zimbabwe’s other neighbors, Zambia,
Botswana, and Mozambique, also have seen a significant rise in immigration in the last year.
While many stay in these countries to look for work or stay with relatives, others commute across
the border daily to buy basic staples that have been unavailable in their own country. Those who
were caught by South African police have been sent back to Zimbabwe; the International
Organization for Migration (IOM) reported that the number of Zimbabweans repatriated from its
facility in Beitbridge, South Africa increased from 40,000 in the last six months of 2006 to almost
118,000 in the first six months of 2007. The government recently changed its immigration policy
for Zimbabweans, allowing them to receive temporary visitors’ permits.
As mentioned above, tensions over perceived competition for resources led in May 2008 to
xenophobic attacks on Zimbabweans and other immigrants in townships throughout South Africa.
Many were rendered homeless and forced to seek shelter in temporary camps established by the
South African government, while others chose to return to their country of origin. Cases of
cholera have been reported in South Africa and other neighboring countries.
During his 2003 visit to Africa, President George W. Bush called then-President Mbeki his “point
man” on Zimbabwe.75 The United States has been outspoken in its criticism of the policies of
Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe with respect to human rights, democracy, and land reform,
and has imposed “targeted sanctions” prohibiting travel to the United States by Zimbabwe
leaders. President Mbeki, by contrast, chose to deal with President Mugabe through “quiet
diplomacy,” or diplomatic engagement, and South African officials have called for western
countries to reconsider the penalties they have imposed on Zimbabwe.
As Zimbabwe’s largest trading partner, many observers have considered South Africa to be in a
position to exert substantial leverage on its neighbor. At the same time, South Africa must weigh
the unintended effects of such leverage—state collapse across its northern border could produce a
sharp increase in illegal migration and have a substantial impact on South Africa. In 2005, as the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) threatened to expel Zimbabwe from the Fund for debt
payment arrears, the country requested a loan of up to $1 billion from South Africa for fuel, food,
73 U.N. Document S/Res/1747, March 24, 2007. For South African government statements on the vote, see “Iran Keeps
Up Nuclear Consultation with SA,” Business Day, July 9, 2007.
74 For more information on South Africa’s policies on Zimbabwe, see CRS Report RL34509, Zimbabwe: The Power
Sharing Agreement and Implications for U.S. Policy, by Lauren Ploch.
75 Comments made by President Bush during press conference on July 9, 2003 in Pretoria http://www.whitehouse.gov/
news/releases/2003/07/20030709.html.
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and electricity, as well as to address the IMF payments. Amid rumors that the South African
government would make any potential loan conditional on economic and political reforms, the
loan negotiations stalled and Mugabe found another source from which to repay the IMF dues.76
In March 2007, Southern African Development Community (SADC) leaders appointed President
Mbeki to mediate between the Zimbabwean government and the opposition. In June 2007, South
Africa initiated talks between the Mugabe Administration, represented by the country’s Ministers
of Labor and Justice, and the two MDC factions, represented by their respective Secretary-
Generals, in Pretoria. President Mugabe’s proclamation in January 2008 that national elections
would be held on March 29, 2008, while opposition rallies in the country continued to be
suppressed by police, angered the opposition and led to the dialogue’s collapse.
Following Zimbabwe’s 2005 parliamentary elections, which the British and American
governments termed “fundamentally flawed” and “seriously tainted,” the head of South Africa’s
parliamentary observer mission, Mbulelo Goniwe, chief whip of the ruling African National
Congress (ANC), was quoted saying that the delegation had “unanimously agreed that the
elections were credible, legitimate, free and fair.”77 Leading the Southern African Development
Community (SADC) observer delegation, then-South African Deputy President Mlambo-Ngcuka
congratulated Zimbabwe on “the holding of a peaceful, credible, well-managed and transparent
election. The people of Zimbabwe have expressed their will in an impressively instructive manner
that will go a long way in contributing to the consolidation of democracy and political stability
not only in Zimbabwe, but also in the region as a whole.”78 Both statements received substantial
criticism in the international press.
Mbeki’s Zimbabwe policies drew criticism from within his country; former President Mandela,
Archbishop Tutu, former opposition leader Tony Leon, and even the ANC’s ally, the Congress of
South African Trade Unions (COSATU), have been vocal detractors. COSATU delegations have
been forcibly expelled from Zimbabwe twice, first in 2004 and later in 2006, when COSATU
members traveled to Harare to express their support for Zimbabwean human rights activists after
incidents of alleged police violence. One COSATU leader remarked, “we are not quiet
diplomats,” and “we will not keep mum when freedom does not lead to respect for workers and
human rights.”79 When the Mbeki government issued a terse initial statement following the
March 11, 2007, arrest of opposition and civil society activists, COSATU criticized the
government for a “disgraceful” response, “in the face of such massive attacks on democracy and
human rights, especially coming from those who owed so much to international solidarity when
South Africans were fighting for democracy and human rights against the apartheid regime.”80
Jacob Zuma has previously referred to the Zimbabwean president as “a monster,” but he has also
defended Mbeki’s quiet diplomacy.81 Other ANC heavyweights like Cyril Ramaphosa and Tokyo
Sexwale criticized Mbeki’s policy. Sexwale has said, “When a freedom fighter takes a wrong
76 “Zimbabwe Pays Part of IMF Debt,” The Washington Post, September 2, 2005.
77 “The Real Fraud in Zimbabwe,” The Washington Times, April 6, 2005.
78 “Zimbabwe’s Enabler; South Africa Falls Short as Monitor of Democracy, The Washington Post, April 4, 2005.
79 “We Are Not Quiet Diplomats,” Daily Mail and Guardian (Johannesburg), November 5, 2004.
80 “South Africa Ends ‘s ‘Silence’ on Zimbabwe, Urges Harare ‘to Respect Rule of Law,’” BBC Monitoring Africa,
March 14, 2007.
81 “I’m No Mugabe, but I Have Sympathy for What He Has Done,” The Sunday Telegraph (London), November 26,
2006.
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step, it is time for other freedom fighters to stand up and say ‘we know you are a great man, but
we cannot support what you are doing.’”82 In 2007, he suggested that the Zimbabwean
government might be ignoring Mbeki’s efforts, and that it might be time to “turn up the volume.83
Ramaphosa expressed similar sentiments.
President Mbeki’s reluctance to take a more critical stance toward the Mugabe Administration led
to increasing calls for the South African leader to be replaced as the SADC mediator on
Zimbabwe. Tsvangirai criticized Mbeki for his “quiet support for the dictatorship,” and has called
for him to step down as mediator.84 According to reports, President Mbeki recently wrote
President Bush a letter warning the United States not to interfere in the Zimbabwe situation.85 But
as the violence increased after the 2008 elections in Zimbabwe, public and internal ANC pressure
may have forced Mbeki to take a stronger position with President Mugabe. Mbeki visited
Zimbabwe on several occasions after the elections, and he dispatched six retired generals to
investigate reports of attacks on the opposition. The generals reportedly expressed shock at the
level of violence.86 Under Mbeki’s mediation, the Zimbabwe parties reconvened for talks in South
Africa, and on September 15, 2008, after several weeks of negotiations, Mugabe and MDC leader
Morgan Tsvangirai signed a power-sharing arrangement aimed at resolving the political standoff.
After a four month delay, the parties reached agreement on several key implementation details
and Tsvangirai become Prime Minister of a new coalition government. Cabinet positions have
been divided among the parties. Like other international donors, the United States has expressed
cautious support for the new arrangement, but has reaffirmed that certain conditions must be met
before non-humanitarian assistance to the government will resume. For more information, see
CRS Report RL34509, Zimbabwe: The Power Sharing Agreement and Implications for U.S.
Policy, by Lauren Ploch.
Trade
The United States and South Africa enjoy a strong trade relationship. As Table 1 indicates, the
United States runs a deficit in its merchandise trade with South Africa. Nevertheless, South Africa
is the largest market for U.S. goods on the continent, with imports totaling over $5.5 billion in
2007. Leading U.S. exports include transportation equipment, chemicals, and electronic products,
while leading imports include minerals and metals, and transportation equipment.87 U.S. officials
point out that South Africa continues to enjoy major benefits from the African Growth and
Opportunity Act (AGOA, P.L. 106-200), enacted by Congress in May 2000, with nearly all of the
country’s exports qualifying for duty-free entry into the United States. Through AGOA, South
Africa exported $2.3 billion in such products as vehicles, chemicals, minerals, metals, and
agricultural, textile, and apparel products in 2007, making the country the largest and most
diversified supplier of non-fuel products under AGOA.
82 “Chorus of Disapproval Grows As Sexwale Speaks Out on Mugabe,” Zimbabwe Independent, October 6, 2006.
83 “Zimbabwe ‘Ignoring’ SA Diplomacy,” BBC, May 15, 2007.
84 Barry Bearak, “Zimbabwe Opponent Criticizes Mbeki,” New York Times, February 14, 2008.
85 Michael Gerson, “The Despots’ Democracy,” Washington Post, May 28, 2008.
86 “Anxiety Grows for Kidnaped Zimbabwe Activist,” Voice of America, May 18, 2008.
87 U.S. International Trade Commission.
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Table 1. U.S. Merchandise Trade with South Africa
($ billions)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Exports to South Africa
2.819
3.178
3.907
4.462
5.518
Imports from South Africa
4.624
5.945
5.886
7.501
9.075
Balance
-1.805 -2.766 -1.979 -3.039 -3.557
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division
During a 2002 visit to South Africa, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick proposed the
creation of the United States’ first free trade agreement (FTA) with sub-Saharan Africa, linking
the United States with South Africa and the other members of the Southern Africa Customs Union
(SACU): Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland, and Namibia. SACU is the United States’ second largest
trading partner in Africa behind petroleum-rich Nigeria. Reaction to the FTA proposal in the
region was reportedly positive, but there were concerns about the scope of the negotiations. Some
observers felt that U.S. proposals to include intellectual property, government procurement, and
services in the negotiations could have a negative impact on the SACU countries, and that the
United States was not sensitive to the differing levels of development within SACU. Negotiations
began in 2003 but were suspended in 2006, when U.S. and SACU officials agreed on a new work
program that will aim to address a broad range of trade and investment issues, and may contribute
in the long term toward a possible FTA. Analysts suggest that the momentum for SACU
negotiators to complete the FTA may have been lost, given that AGOA benefits were extended
through the AGOA Acceleration Act of 2004 (P.L. 108-274) until 2015.88
Prospects for the Future
Analysts seem generally confident that South Africa will remain politically stable for some time
to come. There are tensions in rural areas over land, but South Africa seems far from a rural
upheaval over the issue, as has been the case in Zimbabwe. Social tensions over perceived
inequalities in the distribution of wealth and inadequate service delivery, which resulted in violent
attacks on African immigrants in mid-2008, are likely to continue in the near term as the
government struggles to address the needs of its poorest citizens. South Africa’s longer term
stability is linked to the success of the South African government and its partners in fighting
poverty and reducing the toll of the AIDS pandemic.
The principal worry for some analysts has been that South Africa would become a de facto one-
party state under the ANC, weakening checks and balances in the political system. Should this
happen, some fear that the regime could become increasingly authoritarian and unresponsive to
the needs of its citizens. ANC leaders reject this view, arguing that their party is a national
liberation movement committed to transforming South Africa and fulfilling the aspirations of the
poor.89 Others have argued that the power of the ruling party is limited by the country’s free and
very active press, independent judiciary, and a bill of rights enshrined in the constitution. In any
88 For further information, see CRS Report RS21387, United States-Southern African Customs Union (SACU) Free
Trade Agreement Negotiations: Background and Potential Issues, by Danielle Langton.
89 See, for example, President Mbeki’s December 16, 2002 address to the ANC national conference
http://www.anc.org.za/ancdocs/history/mbeki/2002/tm1216.html.
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event, ANC leaders want their country to be seen as a leader in Africa, and as a spokesman for
Africa and developing countries generally in world affairs. To play such roles, South Africa must
continue to be recognized as a successful democracy.
Figure 1. Map of South Africa’s Provinces
Note: South Africa highlighted; al shaded areas are independent countries.
Author Contact Information
Lauren Ploch
Analyst in African Affairs
lploch@crs.loc.gov, 7-7640
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