Order Code RL34378
Kenya: The December 2007 Elections
and the Challenges Ahead
Updated September 17, 2008
Ted Dagne
Specialist in African Affairs
Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division

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Kenya: The December 2007 Elections and the
Challenges Ahead
Summary
Kenya, a nation of about 36.9 million people, has been an important ally of the
United States for decades. Kenya moved from a one-party state to a multi-party
democracy in 1992. Kenyans voted in record numbers in the country’s first multi-
party election in almost 26 years. President Daniel arap Moi defeated opposition
candidates by a small margin. In 1997, Kenya held its second multi-party elections,
at the height of tensions between the opposition and the ruling party. President Moi
was re-elected with 40% of the votes cast, while his nearest rival, Mwai Kibaki, won
31%. In the 2002 presidential and parliamentary elections, the opposition National
Rainbow Coalition (NARC) defeated the ruling Kenya African National Union
(KANU). In the presidential election, NARC leader Kibaki defeated Uhuru Kenyatta,
the leader of KANU.
On December 27, 2007, millions of Kenyans went to the polls in Kenya’s fourth
multi-party elections, with the hope of strengthening the institutions of democracy
and, most important in the view of many observers, of bringing change. An
estimated 14.2 million (82% of the total eligible voters) Kenyans were registered to
vote, while 2,547 Parliamentary candidates were qualified to run in 210
constituencies, according to the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK). Nine
candidates competed in the presidential election. The opposition reportedly made
significant gains in the parliamentary elections. The ECK, however, hastily declared
President Kibaki as the winner of the elections. Kibaki was quickly sworn in as
president, while international and domestic election observers declared the elections
as rigged and deeply flawed.
Following the announcement of the election results, violence erupted in many
parts of Kenya. More than 1,000 people have been killed and an estimated 350,000
reportedly displaced. In August 2008, the Kenya National Commission on Human
Rights (KNCHR) released a report on the post-election violence. In early February,
the opposition and the government began negotiations under the leadership of former
U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan. The two parties agreed to work together to end
the violence, improve humanitarian conditions, and to write a new constitution within
a year. In late February, the government and the opposition reached a power-sharing
arrangement. On March 18, 2008, the Kenya parliament unanimously approved the
Agreement. On April 3, 2008, the parties agreed on a 40-member cabinet.
The initial United States government reaction to the December elections was
considered by some international observers as contradictory and seen by some
Kenyans as being one-sided in favor of President Kibaki. On December 30, the
United States government reportedly congratulated President Kibaki. Senior Bush
Administration officials visited Kenya in an effort to resolve the crisis and provided
support to Kofi Annan’s mediation efforts. In June 2008, Prime Minister Raila
Odinga visited Washington and met with senior Bush Administration officials and
Members of Congress.

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Contents
Recent Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
The December 2007 Elections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Post-Election Violence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Mediation Efforts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
The Challenges Ahead . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
U.S.-Kenya Relations: Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
U.S. Assistance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
List of Tables
Table 1. Electoral Commission of Kenya: Official National Results . . . . . . . . . . 5
Table 2. Electoral Commission of Kenya: Official Parliamentary Results . . . . . . 6
Table 3. Kenya: U.S. Assistance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

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Kenya: The December 2007 Elections and
the Challenges Ahead
Recent Developments
In August 2008, Kenyan authorities came close to arresting the mastermind in
the bombings of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, Fazul A. Mohammed.
According to press reports, Kenyan authorities raided a house that was being used by
Fazul and took into custody passports allegedly used by Fazul and a computer hard
disk. Several people were arrested, allegedly for giving Fazul a safe haven. Fazul
was in the Indian Ocean resort of Malindi.
In August 2008, United Nations officials informed a congressional delegation1
that the Dadaab refugee camp for Somalis and Ethiopians is full of refugees and that
they have no space for new refugees. Kenyan authorities have suggested that perhaps
some of the refugees can be moved to another camp.
In August 2008, the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights released a
report on the post-election violence. The Commission accused five cabinet members,
13 Members of Parliament, some members of the security force, and a number of
individuals of financing and fueling the violence. The 300-page report was
reportedly submitted to President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga.
In June 2008, Prime Minister Raila Odinga visited Washington and met with
senior Bush Administration officials and Members of Congress. Odinga stated that,
although the post-election crisis is largely over, many challenges remain.2 Hundreds
of thousands of people are still indeed of assistance. Unknown number of Kenyans
accused of taking part in the post-election violence remain in prison, and some have
called for amnesty, while others continue to demand justice and accountability.
In June 2008, Kenya held by-elections for five parliamentary seats. The
opposition Orange Democratic Party (ODM) won three seats, while the Party for
National Unity (PNU) won two seats.
In late February, the Kibaki government and the opposition reached a power
sharing agreement, after weeks of negotiations. The agreement calls for the creation
of a prime minister and two deputy prime ministers positions. The agreement known
as the National Accord and Reconciliation Act of 2008 calls for a new coalition
1 Congressman Donald Payne led a delegation in August 2008 to Kenya.
2 Ted Dagne interview with Prime Minister Odinga in May in Kenya and June in
Washington.

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government. On March 18, 2008, the Kenya parliament unanimously approved the
Agreement. On April 3, 2008, the parties agreed on a 40-member cabinet. Key
provisions of the agreement are as follows:3
! There will be a Prime Minister of the Government of Kenya, with
authority to coordinate and supervise the execution of the functions
and affairs of the Government of Kenya.
! The Prime Minister will be an elected member of the National
Assemble and the parliamentary leader of the largest party in the
National Assembly, or a coalition, if the largest party does not
command a majority.
! Each member of the coalition shall nominate one person from the
National Assembly to be appointed a Deputy Prime Minister.
! The Cabinet will consist of the President, the Vice President, the
Prime Minister, the Deputy Prime Ministers and the other Ministers.
The removal of any Minister of the coalition will be subject to
consultation and concurrence in writing by the leaders.
! The Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Ministers can only be
removed if the National Assembly passes a motion of no confidence
with a majority vote.
! The composition of the coalition government will at all times take
into account the principle of portfolio balance and will reflect their
relative parliamentary strength.
! The coalition will be dissolved if the Tenth Parliament is dissolved;
or if the parties agree in writing; or if one coalition partner
withdraws from the coalition.
! The National Accord and Reconciliation Act shall be entrenched in
the Constitution.
The December 2007 Elections
On December 27, 2007, millions of Kenyans went to the polls in Kenya’s fourth
multi-party elections, with the hope of strengthening the institutions of democracy
and, most important in the view of many observers, of bringing change. Several
months before the December elections, a number of polls indicted that the incumbent
President trailed behind opposition candidate Raila Odinga. Many observers,
including key President Mwai Kibaki advisors, acknowledged that President Kibaki
and his party would lose in December.4 An estimated 14.2 million (82% of the total
eligible voters) Kenyans were registered to vote, while 2,547 Parliamentary
candidates were qualified to run in 210 constituencies, according to the Electoral
Commission of Kenya (ECK). A total of 15,331 candidates were approved to
compete in the 2,498 local wards. Nine candidates competed in the presidential
election. According to the European Union Election Observation Mission preliminary
3 The National Accord and Reconciliation Act of 2008.
4 Ted Dagne interviewed a senior Kibaki campaign advisor in August 2007 in Kenya.

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report, the ECK deployed an estimated 245,000 staff to 27,555 polling stations.
These polling station staff members were reportedly well trained.
The elections were administered by the ECK, a government body established by
the Kenyan Constitution. The ECK has 22 Commissioners, 19 of the Commissioners
were appointed by President Kibaki last year, consistent with the authority provided
under the Kenyan Constitution. However, the appointment of the new
Commissioners was reportedly done without proper consultation with opposition
parties, according to the EU and Kenyan observers. The appointments also violated
the Inter-Parliamentary Parties Group (IPPG) Agreement of 1997 that calls for
consultation with opposition parties. Moreover, the newly appointed Commissioners
reportedly lacked experience in effectively carrying out their electoral administrative
responsibilities, according to Kenyan sources and EU officials.
State media coverage of the elections was reportedly one-sided, with the
President’s party, the PNU, getting significantly more attention than the opposition.
According to the EU Electoral Observation Mission (EU EOM) report, the
government-controlled Kenya Broadcasting Corporation (KBC) Radio coverage
gave the PNU 76% share of coverage, compared to the opposition ODM 13% and
ODM-Kenya 5%. The KBC-TV gave PNU 71% of the share of coverage, ODM
11%, and ODM-Kenya, a splinter party that broke from ODM, 5%. Private media
provided a larger share of coverage to opposition groups, although the PNU received
more coverage than the opposition parties, according to the EU EOM. The December
2007 elections were monitored by international and local election observers,
according to press reports and Kenyan officials.
The opposition reportedly made significant gains in the parliamentary elections
and early election results showed Odinga ahead of Kibaki. The Electoral Commission
of Kenya, however, hastily declared President Kibaki as the winner of the elections.
President Kibaki was quickly sworn in as president, while international and domestic
election observers declared the elections as rigged and deeply flawed. Several
members of the ECK openly declared shortly after the election results were
announced that they did not agree with the decision to declare Kibaki as the winner
of the election and that there were serious problems in vote tallying, according to
press reports. The Chairman of the Commission also admitted that he was under
intense political pressure from powerful political leaders and the ruling party.
According to current and former Kenyan government officials, even before the
Electoral Commission announced the results, the spouses of senior government
officials were preparing for the swearing-in ceremony. The Kenya Electoral
Commission Chairman, Samuel M. Kivuitu, was quoted in a press report that the day
he went to deliver the certificate declaring Kibaki the winner, he saw the Chief
Justice already at State House reportedly waiting to swear in Kibaki. The swearing-
in ceremony was said to be so rushed that the organizers forgot to include the
National Anthem in the program.5
5 Ted Dagne interview with several Kenyan opposition and government officials. January
2008 in Nairobi, Kenya.

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Election observers, ECK Commissioners, and ECK staff reported serious
irregularities, especially in vote tallying by the ECK and staff in Nairobi, Kenya. In
Maragua District, a Kibaki stronghold, the document received by the ECK showed
turnout at 115%, but was later changed by the Chairman of the ECK to 85%.
Moreover, according to one press report, “results were announced even when
documents were missing, incomplete, unsigned by officers or party representatives.”6
Moreover, in Molo, a small town in the Rift Valley of Kenya, the vote tally results
document reportedly showed 50,145 votes for President Kibaki, but the ECK
Chairman publicly announced that Kibaki won 75,261 votes, more than 25,000 votes
than documented. In addition, a number of the tallying centers in the provinces were
closed early before they finished work and observers were not allowed in the central
tallying station in Nairobi, Kenya for two days. According to a report by EU
observers, “a lack of adequate transparency and security measures in the process of
relaying the results from local to national level questioned the integrity of the final
results.”7 The EU report concluded that “the 2007 General Elections have fallen
short of key international and regional standards for democratic elections. Most
significantly, they were marred by a lack of transparency in the processing and
tallying of presidential results, which raises concerns about the accuracy of the final
results of this election.” Election observers from the East African Community also
raised serious concerns about the December 2007 elections.
The initial United States government reaction to the December elections was
considered by some international observers as contradictory and seen by some
Kenyans as being one-sided in favor of President Kibaki. On December 30, the
United States government reportedly congratulated President Kibaki. Shortly after
the election results were announced, an official statement from the U.S. declared that
“those alleging vote tampering may pursue legal remedies and should be able,
consistent with respect for freedom of speech, to make their case publicly.”8 This
was a position supported by President Kibaki, but rejected by the opposition and seen
by many Kenyans as a mechanism that has failed to resolve past political disputes.
The judiciary is seen by the opposition as an institution controlled by Kibaki
loyalists. President Kibaki appointed a number of senior judges just before the
elections last year. In addition, Kenyans point out that President Kibaki announced
his new cabinet shortly after he concluded a meeting with the U.S. Assistant
Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer. The U.S. position shifted
somewhat by January, as the Assistant Secretary declared that “serious flaws in the
vote tallying process damaged the credibility of the process.”9
6 Shashank, Bengali. How Kenya’s Election Was Rigged, the McClatchy Newspapers.
January 31, 2008.
7 European Union Election Observation Mission. Kenya General Election Preliminary
Statement.
8 Press Release issued on December 31, 2007 by the U.S. Embassy in Kenya.
9 BBC News. USA Urges Political Settlement to Kenya’s Post-Electoral Crisis. January
13, 2008.

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Table 1. Electoral Commission of Kenya: Official National
Results
First
Other Names
Votes
Party Abrev
Party
Name
Mwai
Kibaki
4,578,034
PNU
Party of National Unity
Raila Amolo
Odinga
4,352,860
ODM
Orange Democratic Movement
Orange Democratic Movement -
Stephen Kalonzo
Musyoka
879,899
ODM-K
Kenya
Joseph Ngacha
Karani
21,168
KPTP
Kenya Patriotic Trust Party
Pius Muiru
Mwangi
9,665
KPP
Kenya People’s Party
Nazlin Omar
Workers Congress Party of
Rajput
8,624
WCP
Fazaldin
Kenya
Kenneth Stanley
Matiba
8,049
SSA
Saba Saba Asili
Njindo
David Waweru
Ngethe
5,976
CCU
Chama Cha Uma Party
Nixon Jeremiah
Kukubo
5,926
RPK
Republican Party of Kenya

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Table 2. Electoral Commission of Kenya: Official Parliamentary
Results
Party
Name
Symbol
Seats
ODM
Orange Democratic Movement
Orange
99
Two Torches with
PNU
Party of National Unity
43
Flames
Orange Democratic Movement -
ODM-K
Oranges
16
Kenya
KANU
Kenya African National Union
Cockerel
14
SAFINA
Safina Party
Safina
5
NARC KENYA
Narc Kenya
Flower
4
Traditional African
NARC
National Rainbow Coalition
3
Torch (Mwenge)
Forum for the Restoration of
FORD-P
Pen
3
Democracy for the People
NFK
New Ford Kenya
Cup
2
Party of Independent Candidates of
PICK
Child
2
Kenya
CCU
Chama Cha Uzalendo
Whistle
2
SKSPK
Sisi Kwa Sisi Party of Kenya
Train
2
DP
Democratic Party of Kenya
Lantern
2
Traditional African
PDP
Peoples Democratic Party
1
Banjo
MGPK
Mazingira Greens Party of Kenya
Tree
1
PPK
Peoples Party of Kenya
Trumpet
1
NLP
National Labour Party
Bull (Ndume)
1
Kenya African Democratic
KADDU
Fruit Basket (Mavuno)
1
Development Union
KENDA
Kenya National Democratic Alliance
Bell
1
KADU-ASILI
Kenya African Democratic Union Asili
Coconut Tree
1
Forum for the Restoration of
FORD-K
Lion
1
Democracy - Kenya
UDM
United Democratic Movement
Milk Can
1
Forum for the Restoration of
FORD-A
Two Fingers Raised
1
Democracy - Asili
Source: Electoral Commission of Kenya.

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Post-Election Violence
Shortly after the election results were announced, supporters of the opposition
took to the streets in what many observers described as spontaneous demonstrations
of anger and engaged in violent attacks targeting pro-government districts and
properties. More that 1,000 people have been killed since late December and an
estimated 350,000 have been displaced, including 80,000 children under five years
of age, according to U.N. and Kenyan sources. Many protestors were reportedly shot
and killed by police, while many others died in mob violence, according to Kenyan
sources and international observers. Protestors also burned houses and properties,
especially in Eldoret, Kisumu, Naivasha, and Nairobi, as well as in other parts of
Kenya. Thousands of Kenyans, mostly children and elderly were displaced in
Nairobi and many of them sought refugee in Jamhuri Show ground. In Jamhuri,
Kenyans from different backgrounds, including church leaders, individuals, the Red
Cross Society of Kenya, and others came together to help thousands of displaced
people. More than 500 volunteers offered their help, while Kenyans donated food,
money, toys, and blankets.10 The number of registered adults and children in Jamhuri
fluctuates, although in early January there were 6,000 registered people from Kibera,
the poorest neighborhood in Kenya, with an estimated 1.5 million people.
The Kenyan military did not engage in riot control functions for most of
January, while the Kenyan police and security were given authority to use lethal
force, according to press reports and Kenyan sources. According to some reports,
Kenyan security forces targeted opposition supporters, provided assistance to pro-
government gangs, and failed to protect the civilian population in some places. Two
opposition Members of Parliament were killed in late January, one reportedly by a
police officer. The police officer reportedly killed the MP and his girlfriend, who
was in the same car, according to press reports. Moreover, opposition leaders accuse
the security forces and pro-government gangs of targeting their supporters and family
members.11 The government also initiated a number of media restrictions and banned
demonstrations, although opposition supporters launched another three-day protest
in mid-January. On January 16, the opposition took to the streets in over a dozen
locations throughout Kenya. Several people were killed and many more injured.
Opposition supporters have also engaged in targeted attacks against government
supporters. In a number of communities in Kenya, people have been burned to death
and hacked by machetes.
Some observers have described the violence as a tribal conflict between the
President’s Kikuyu ethnic group and the Luo and Kalenjin ethnic groups. Indeed,
Kikuyus were principal targets in some areas, although the Luo and other ethnic
groups were also targeted by the security forces and by Kikuyu groups. Kenyan civil
society and human rights advocates argue that it is a mistake to simply describe the
current violence as a tribal conflict, since the trigger and the reason behind the
violence for many Kenyans is the rigged elections and what they fear is a return to
10 In January 2008, Congressman Donald Payne led a delegation to Kenya. As a member
of that delegation, Ted Dagne visited the Jamhuri Showground and Kibera.
11 Ted Dagne interviewed a number of opposition leaders and human rights advocates in
Kenya.

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dictatorship. Opposition leaders and their supporters strongly believe that the election
was stolen from them, and they consider reversing the current trend in Kenya as
necessary in order to ensure that the gains made in democracy over the past decade
would not be lost. Some Kenyans view the violence in some places as driven by
economic factors rather than ethnic or political. The victims of some of the violent
attacks have been wealthy or middle class Kenyans from diverse ethnic backgrounds.
The last major ethnic violence before an election was in 1992. In that particular case,
the violence was triggered over land dispute between the Kalenjin and the Luo.
Mediation Efforts
International efforts to bring a negotiated settlement failed in the initial phase
of the crisis. The African Union, the Kenyans, and the European Union all
encouraged a power-sharing arrangement between Odinga and President Kibaki.
Odinga, while willing to negotiate with Kibaki, was reluctant to agree to a deal
without international guarantee. Kibaki was elected president in 2002 largely due to
strong support from Odinga and current opposition leaders. As part of the coalition
agreement, Odinga was to become prime minister in the Kibaki government,
although Kibaki reportedly reneged in that agreement (see background section for
more on this issue).
Initial efforts by African Union president, President John Kufuor of Ghana,
failed to bring the two parties to engage in negotiations. Since the failed AU
initiative, former United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan began to actively
engage in mediation efforts since mid-January. He succeeded in getting Kibaki and
Odinga to meet for the first time since the crisis erupted in late December. In late
January, both sides agreed to start negotiations and later appointed their respective
negotiation team members. In early February, the parties also agreed to work
together to end the violence, although reportedly more than 70 people were killed a
day after the agreement was signed.
In mid-January, the Kenyan Parliament met and elected a new Speaker. The
opposition candidate won with 105 votes, while the president’s candidate, former
Speaker Francis Kaparo, lost. Opposition leader Odinga called for a negotiated
agreement with President Kibaki. He supported the creation of a transitional
coalition government, with a mandate to draft a new Constitution, new electoral law,
and establish a new independent Electoral Commission.12 The opposition initially
called for an investigation of the election results by an independent body and a re-run
of the presidential election within two years. In February, the government and the
opposition agreed on a wide range of issues, including a power-sharing arrangement
and an independent investigation of the December 2007 election disputes.
Background
Kenya, a nation of about 36.9 million people, became independent in December
1963 after a prolonged and bloody uprising against Britain, with over 13,000
casualties. Kenya resisted the Marxist-Leninist ideological tide that swept much of
12 Ted Dagne spoke to Raila Odinga in late January 2008.

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Africa in the 1960s and 1970s and maintained a fairly stable political system in a
region marred by civil strife and political violence. Although it was governed under
one-party rule until 1992, Kenya had a relatively open political system. Kenya’s first
president was Jomo Kenyatta, an independence advocate from Kenya’s largest ethnic
group, the Kikuyu. Kenyatta’s successor as president was Vice President Daniel arap
Moi, who took over as president upon Kenyatta’s death in 1978. Moi, a teacher
before entering politics, is a Kalenjin — traditionally a pastoral people based in the
western portion of the Kenya highlands. Many non-Kikuyu initially hoped that his
presidency would redistribute the benefits that they felt had unfairly accrued to the
Kikuyu under Kenyatta. In 1991, President Moi reluctantly and under pressure
agreed to move to multi-party politics, eight years after his government had amended
the constitution to legalize one-party rule. The move to a multi-party state came after
two years of an anti-government political campaign by opposition groups and
persistent pressure by donor governments, including the United States.
In 1992, Kenyans voted in
Kenya At A Glance
record numbers in the country’s
first multi-party election in
Population: 37.9 million
almost 26 years. President Moi
Comparative Area: Slightly more than twice the size of
defeated opposition candidates
Nevada
by a small margin. His party,
Ethnic Divisions: Kikuyu 22%, Luhya 14%, Luo 13%,
the Kenya African National
Kalenjin 12%, Kamba 11%, Kisii 6%, Meru 6%, other
African 15%, Asian, European, and Arab 1%
Union (KANU), also won a
Religions: Protestant 45%, Roman Catholic 33%,
majority in the 210-seat
indigenous beliefs 10%, Muslim 10%, other 2%
parliament, despite the defeat
Languages: English (official), Swahili (official),
of several senior KANU
numerous indigenous languages.
officials by little-known
GDP (purchasing power parity) $58.8 billion (est.
2007)
opposition candidates. The
GDP Per Capita (purchasing power parity): $1,700
three major opposition parties,
(est. 2007)
the Forum for Restoration of
Democracy-Kenya (FORD-
Source: The CIA World Factbook 2008
Kenya), FORD-Asili, and the
Democratic Party (DP), each
received substantial votes, but
fell short of expectations. In 1997, Kenya held its second multi-party elections, at the
height of tensions between the opposition and the ruling party. President Moi was
re-elected with 40% of the votes cast, while his nearest rival, Mwai Kibaki, won
31%. The ruling party, KANU, won 107 seats in the 222-member parliament (12
seats out of the 222 are appointed by the president), while the opposition secured the
remaining 103 seats. International and Kenyan election observers said that while
there were some irregularities, the results of the elections reflected the wishes of most
Kenyans. The victory by Moi was largely due to divisions within the opposition and
the inability of the opposition to back a single candidate against Moi.
The opposition learned from its mistakes, and in 2002 it succeeded in forming
and holding together a coalition, known as NARC (National Rainbow Coalition), that
ousted KANU from power by wide margins. NARC won 132 seats in parliament,
compared with KANU’s 67, while Kibaki defeated Uhuru Kenyatta, son of Jomo
Kenyatta, for the presidency with a 62% majority. Moi had designated Kenyatta as
the KANU candidate for president in October 2002, prompting Raila Odinga, who

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had sought the nomination, to leave KANU and, with other defectors, form the
Liberal Democratic Party. Kibaki’s National Alliance of Kenya (NAK) courted these
KANU defectors, and in November 2002, NAK and the LDP agreed to create NARC.
NAK is itself a coalition, including Kibaki’s Democratic Party and 12 other parties
which typically have an ethnic or regional base. President Kibaki announced his
cabinet on January 3, 2003, consisting of longtime opposition figures and also senior
members of KANU. President Kibaki had to take several factors into consideration
in the selection of his cabinet members, including ethnic balance, technical skills,
and government experience, as well as rewarding old and new political allies.
The Challenges Ahead
The 24-year rule of President Moi kept Kenya united, but left the East African
country in serious economic and political trouble. The most immediate political
challenge to President Kibaki is how to deal with the post election challenges and
jointly govern with his coalition partners.
Another challenge is the economy, which was stagnant in the 1990s, but has
shown solid growth in recent years. The GDP grew by an estimated 5.4% in 2006
and 7% in 2007. According to the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) June 2008
report, “real GDP is expected to subside to 4.1% in 2008, owing to post-election
disruption.” Read GDP growth in 2009 is expected at 4.2%. The IMF sent a
mission in January 2006 to review progress. In April 2007, the IMF resumed lending
to Kenya, after a second review of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility
(PRGF). The IMF also agreed to extend the PRGF until November 2007. The
World Bank also began assistance to Kenya, with an estimated $800 million
assistance package for projects through June 2008. Meanwhile, inflation rates
reached an average 14.5% in 2006, in part due to 12-20% pay raises for civil servants
and teachers. In 2008, inflation rates are estimated at 23% and 7% in 2009.
Unemployment is high and corruption is still a serious problem, although the Kibaki
government has taken a number of measures to deal with this problem.
Tackling corruption is another serious challenge facing a new government in
Kenya. Rooting out official corruption may require removing senior members of the
government from power and prosecution of former senior government officials.
Several ministers were forced to resign in 2006, and the Kibaki administration faced
serious allegations of corruption. The resignation of the Finance Minister in
February 2006 for alleged corruption was seen by some as an important step in
fighting official corruption in Kenya. However, the clearing of the Energy Minister
from corruption charges raised serious doubt about the government’s resolve to fight
corruption. In early 2005, the government’s anti-corruption chief resigned from his
position, arguing that the Kibaki government is not serious about fighting corruption
and accusing a number of senior officials of corruption.13 The United States, Britain,
and other donor governments have also made similar accusations.14 In October 2006,
Attorney General Amos Wako declared that he will not prosecute suspects in the
13 “An Exile Sees Graft as a Piece of Kenya’s Social Puzzle.” The New York Times, March
18, 2006.
14 “Corruption haunts Kenya’s leader.” BBC News Online, February 2005.

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corruption case against Anglo-Leasing, a British firm. According to Wako,
successful prosecution will not be possible because of “a number of material and
significant gaps.”
Constitutional reform had been the rallying cry for opposition groups prior to
the 2002 elections. As part of a pre-election agreement reached among the key
players within NARC, a proposed new constitution would create a position of prime
minister with executive powers. Reportedly, leaders from the main opposition
groups agreed that this position would go to Raila Odinga, one of the major political
figures within NARC. The constitutional drafting process was marred by delays,
changes, and serious disagreement within NARC. President Kibaki and his
supporters managed to get a draft approved in a process seen by some senior
members of NARC as undemocratic. These members campaigned against the draft
constitution, arguing that the agreement reached earlier was violated, and in
November 2005, Kenyans defeated the draft constitution in a national referendum.15
In late 2005, a number of senior officials left NARC and formed the Orange
Democratic Party (ODM).The defeat of the 2005 draft constitution signaled that
President Kibaki had lost the support of many Kenyans who once gave strong support
to NARC. President Kibaki’s credibility was further shaken in February 2006 by the
resignation of three ministers on corruption allegations. Following these events,
some observers asserted that President Kibaki would struggle to complete his term.
However, the formation of a new party, NARC-Kenya, appears to have altered the
Kenyan political landscape. NARC-Kenya, formally launched in June 2006, replaced
NARC, and demonstrated its political strength by winning three of the five
parliamentary seats in the July 24, 2006 by-elections. In September 2007, President
Kibaki announced the formation of a new coalition, the Party of National Unity. The
PNU includes KANU, NARC-Kenya, FORD-Kenya, FORD-People, and the
Democratic Party.
Despite the enormous challenges facing Kenya, the Kibaki victory in 2002 had
a positive impact in Kenya as well as in Africa generally. The smooth transfer of
power and the transparency in the conduct of the elections indicated that democracy
can flourish in Africa. For example, the power of incumbency and the entrenched
clout of a ruling party did not stop an opposition victory in Kenya. The lessons
learned from the 2002 Kenyan elections are many and could strengthen democracy
movements elsewhere in Africa. Kenya is also a key player in regional affairs,
having hosted negotiations on Sudan and Somalia. Kenya is home to many refugees
from Uganda, Sudan, and Somalia. In recent months, Kenya has come under
criticism from the United Nations and human rights groups for barring additional
Somali refugees. The government of Kenya handed over more than 40 Somalis to
the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia (TFG) and the Ethiopian
government. Human rights groups are concerned that some of these individuals
would be tortured or killed. In addition, Kenyan Muslim leaders accuse the Kibaki
government of handing over Kenyan Muslims to Ethiopian and Somali security
services.
15 The author interviewed opposition leaders and government officials in Kenya in 2005 and
2006.

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U.S.-Kenya Relations: Issues. Kenya has been a valuable U.S. ally since
independence, providing the United States with access to its military facilities and
political support in the United Nations. Washington once considered Kenya a model
developing country with shared democratic values in a continent where civil wars
raged and military and authoritarian governments reigned. In the early 1990s,
relations between Kenya and the United States became strained due to deteriorating
human rights conditions and the government’s resistance to a multi-party system,
though relations improved slightly after the 1992 multi-party elections. Relations
have improved significantly in the past several years; however, the United States
remains concerned about corruption and human rights conditions. The most recent
edition of the State Department Country Reports on Human Rights Practices, issued
in March 2008, stated that
The government in many areas respected the human rights of its citizens or attempted to institute
reforms to address deficiencies; however, serious problems remained. The following human
rights problems were reported: unlawful killings, torture, and use of excessive force by police;
vigilante justice; police impunity; harsh and life-threatening prison conditions; arbitrary arrest
and detention; arbitrary interference with the home; prolonged pretrial detention; executive
influence on the judiciary; disrespect for freedom of speech and of the press; internally displaced
persons, refugees, and stateless persons; government corruption; abuse of, and discrimination
against, women; female genital mutilation (FGM); child prostitution and labor; trafficking in
persons; interethnic violence; and lack of enforcement of workers' rights.
Kenya has been an important ally in the war against terrorism, especially since
the U.S. embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998. As many as 5,000
people were injured in the Nairobi blast, and 86 people in Dar es Salaam. Kenya
became a target again, when on November 28, 2002, near simultaneous terrorist
attacks struck targets in Mombasa, Kenya. Suicide bombers drove a truck packed
with explosives into the Israeli-owned Paradise Hotel in Mombasa, killing 10
Kenyans and three Israelis. Minutes earlier, terrorists fired two shoulder-fired
missiles that missed an Israeli passenger plane taking off from the Mombasa airport.
The State Department’s 2006 Country Report on Terrorism stated that “ Important
Kenyan officials spoke out publicly about the dangers of terrorism and key elements
of the Kenyan security apparatus took concrete steps to increase counter-terrorism
efforts, including the formation of an interagency Coastal Security Steering
Committee. At the same time, however, political and bureaucratic resistance
remained to the formation of an interagency Kenyan Joint Terrorism Task Force
(JTTF).”
U.S. Assistance
Kenya has been one of the major recipients of U.S. foreign assistance in Sub-
Saharan Africa for decades, and is an important trading partner with the United
States. Despite Kenya’s years of poor economic performance and serious corruption
problems, the United States maintained a robust development assistance program
focused on good governance, economic development, education, health care, and
rural area development efforts in income generation and the effective use of natural
resources. In regard to the promotion of good governance, the U.S. Agency for
International Development (USAID) “continues to promote transparent and
accountable governance by improving the balance of power among the various

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branches of government.”16 U.S. support for health care is largely focused on the
fight against HIV/AIDS. Kenya is one of the major focus countries of the President’s
Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and a major recipient of the Global
HIV/AIDS Initiative funding. Security co-operation and support is another area in
which Kenya and the United States work closely. In October 2006, the Bush
Administration removed restrictions on IMET funding for Kenya. The restrictions
were imposed because of Kenya’s refusal to sign an agreement with the United States
to provide immunity to U.S. personnel from prosecution by the International
Criminal Court (ICC). In response to the humanitarian crisis in Kenya, the United
States has provided, as of late January 2008, $44.4 million in humanitarian assistance
in FY2008.
Table 3. Kenya: U.S. Assistance
($ in thousands)
Account
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
FY2008
FY2009
Actual
Actual
Actual
Estimate
Request
CSH
14,600
17,840
18,950
38,492
18,361
DA
15,782
21,615
23,327
32,125
42,750
ESF
7,678
6,420
5,066
FMF
198
100
GHAI
116,495
175,950
337,918
501,879
501,879
IMET
139
45
524
750
NADR-ATA
3,484
3,168
4,565
5,777
5,500
NADR-CTF
700
100
600
NADR-
75
100
500
EXBS
NADR-TIP
285
300
INCLE
100
P.L. 480
45,056
85,700
47,303
6,951
Peace Corps
3,150
3,264
3,190
Source: Department of State. CSH: Child Survival and Health; DA: Development Assistance; ESF:
Economic Support Fund; FMF: Foreign Military Financing; GHAI: Global Aids Initiative; IMET:
International Military Education and Training; NADR-TIP: Nonproliferation, Anti-Terrorism,
Demining, and Related programs; NADR-CTF: Counter Terrorism Financing; NADR-ATA: Anti-
Terrorism Assistance; NADR-EXBS:Export Control and Related Border Security Assistance; P.L.
480: food assistance; International Narcotics Control and Law Enforcement (INCLE).
16 USAID’s Strategy in Kenya. [http://www.usaid.gov].

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