Order Code RS22537
Updated January 25, 2007
Iraqi Civilian Deaths Estimates
Hannah Fischer
Information Research Specialist
Knowledge Services Group
Summary
This report presents various governmental and nongovernmental estimates of Iraqi
civilian fatalities. The Department of Defense (DOD) regularly updates total U.S.
military death and wounded statistics from Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF), as reflected
in CRS Report RS21578, Iraq: Summary of U.S. Casualties. However, no Iraqi or U.S.
government office regularly releases statistics on Iraqi civilian deaths. Statistics on
these topics are sometimes available through alternative sources, such as nonprofit
organizations, or through statements made by officials to the press. No authoritative
source has released either an estimate of Iraqi civilians who have been wounded or an
estimate of total Iraqi casualties (dead and wounded). Because these estimates are based
on varying time periods and have been created using differing methodologies, readers
should exercise caution when using these statistics and should look on them as
guideposts rather than as statements of historical fact. See also CRS Report RS22532,
Iraqi Police and Security Forces Casualty Estimates. This report will be updated as
needed.
The United Nations Assistance Mission
for Iraq (UNAMI) and the United States
Department of Defense (DOD) have recently
released reports that include sections on Iraqi
civilian casualties. In the latest Human Rights
Report, the UNAMI estimated that 3,462
Iraqi civilians were killed in November 2006
and 2,914 Iraqi civilians were killed in

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CRS-2
December 2006.1 These figures represent a tally of two civilian death counts: one from
the Iraq Ministry of Health, which records deaths reported by hospitals; and one from the
Medico-Legal Institute (MLI) in Baghdad, which reports the number of unidentified
bodies it receives.2 For 2006, the total number of civilians violently killed, as reported
by UNAMI, is 34,452, with an average of 94 civilians killed every day. UNAMI also
reports that 36,685 civilians were wounded in 2006, including 2,222 women and 777
children.3 The June 30, 2006 version of the UNAMI report estimated that the combined
count of civilian casualties from January 2006 to June 2006 was 14,228 and commented
that:
On 25 June, the [Iraqi] Ministry of Health publicly acknowledged information stating
that since 2003 at least 50,000 persons have been killed violently. The Baghdad
morgue reportedly received 30,204 bodies from 2003 to mid-2006. Deaths numbering
18,933 occurred from “military clashes” and “terrorist attacks” between 5 April 2004
and 1 June 2006. The Ministry further indicated that the number of deaths is probably
underreported.4
UNAMI has also made estimates of civilian casualties in Baghdad, a topic that has
drawn nearly as much attention as estimates of civilian casualties in the country as a
whole. In a recent article in the Washington Post, Gianni Magazzeni, chief of UNAMI’s
Human Rights Office, asserted that there had been 1,536 violent deaths in Baghdad in
August 2006, as reported by the Baghdad morgue.5 The December 2006 report states,
“The situation is notably grave in Baghdad where unidentified bodies killed execution
style are found in large number daily.”6
DOD has not released a composite estimate of Iraqi civilian deaths during Operation
Iraqi Freedom. However, it has released a bar chart of the average daily Iraqi casualties
and average daily coalition casualties. The chart does not distinguish between deaths and
wounded, nor does it distinguish between civilians and security forces (or ISF).7
1 United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq, Human Rights Report: 1 November - 31 December
2006, at [http://tinyurl.com/2hlg7h]. All U.N. figures exclude casualty estimates from the Region
of Kurdistan.
2 Nick Wadhams, “Iraq civilian toll spikes to nearly 6,000,” Associated Press, July 19, 2006.
3 United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq, Human Rights Report: 1 November - 31 December
2006, at [http://tinyurl.com/2hlg7h], pp.4-5.
4 United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq, Human Rights Report: 1 May - 30 June 2006, at
[http://tinyurl.com/ml6c8], p. 3.
5 Ellen Knickmeyer, “Body Count in Baghdad Nearly Triples,” Washington Post, Sept. 8, 2006,
p. A12.
6 United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq, Human Rights Report: 1 November - 31 December
2006, at [http://tinyurl.com/2hlg7h], p. 6.
7 U.S. Department of Defense, Multi-National Corps-Iraq, Measuring Stability and Security in
Iraq: November 2006 Report to Congress in Accordance with the Department of Defense
A p p r o p r i a t i o n s A c t 2 0 0 6 ( S e c t i o n 9 0 1 0 ) , N o v . 2 0 0 6 , a t
[http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/9010Quarterly-Report-20061216.pdf], p. 22.

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CRS-3
Average Daily Casualties*
April 1, 2004 — November 10, 2006
100
90
Civilians
Iraqi Security Forces
80
Coalition
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Pre-
Sovereignty: 29
Election: 27 Nov
Pre-Constitution: Referend/Elect: 29
Gov. Transition:
Gov Established:
Gov Established:
Sovereignty:1Apr
Jun 04-26 Nov 04
04-11 Feb 05
12 Feb 05-28 Aug Aug 05-10 Feb 06 11 Feb 06-19 May 20 May 06-11 Aug 12 Aug 06-10 Nov
04-28 Jun 04
05
06
06
06
* Casualty data reflect updated data for each period and are derived from unverified initial reports
submitted by Coalition elements responding to an incident; the inconclusivity of these numbers
constrains them to be used only for comparative purposes.
Source: CRS rendition of DOD graph, as derived from the Multi-National Corps - Iraq,
[http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/9010Quarterly-Report-20061216.pdf].
Other Iraqi or U.S. government officials have also made estimates of Iraqi civilian
casualties, often in conversations with the media. In a question and answer period after
a speech in December 2005, President George W. Bush gave an estimate of civilian
deaths, stating “30,000 [Iraqi civilians], more or less, have died as a result of the initial
incursion and the ongoing violence against Iraqis [during Operation Iraqi Freedom].”8
After the speech, however, aides said that Bush’s statement was not an official
government estimate but a reflection of figures in news media reports.9 In a news
conference on October 16, 2006, however, President Bush said that he stands by the
figure.10
Iraqi government officials have also released their own death toll estimates to the
press. In November 2006, Iraq’s Health Minister Ali al Shemari told reporters in Vienna
that there had been 150,000 civilian deaths during the war so far. He later explained to the
Associated Press that he based the figure on an estimate of 100 bodies per day brought
to morgues and hospitals. However, one observer noted that such a calculation would
8 White House News release, “President Discusses War on Terror and Upcoming Iraqi Elections,”
Dec. 12, 2005, at [http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/12/20051212-4.html].
9 Adam Harvey, “Bush says civilian toll in Iraq 30,000,” The Advertiser, Dec. 14, 2005, p. 42.
10 President George H. W. Bush, The President’s News Conference, Public Papers of the
Presidents, Oct. 16, 2006.

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CRS-4
yield a result closer to 130,000 deaths.11 More recently, an anonymous Iraqi Health
Ministry official released data indicating that more than 17,000 Iraqi civilians and police
officers died violently in the latter half of 2006.12 The same official added that the
numbers he released remained incomplete, suggesting that the final tally of violent deaths
could be higher. Over the full year for 2006, however, the Iraqi Health Ministry has a
death toll of 22,950 civilians.13
In addition to using government sources, some media have cited a number of not-
for-profit or scholarly sources that attempt to track civilian deaths, while others have
attempted to compile their own numbers. The Los Angeles Times used statistics from the
Baghdad morgue, the Iraqi Health Ministry and “other agencies” to estimate that at least
50,000 Iraqis died between May 1, 2003, and June 25, 2006.14
The British medical journal, The Lancet, has published two articles by researchers
looking into civilian casualties. The first, “Mortality Before and After the 2003 Invasion
of Iraq: Cluster Sample Survey,” used a cluster sample survey of households in Iraq to
develop an estimate of 8,000 to 194,000 civilian casualties due to violent deaths since the
start of the war.15 This report has come under some criticism for its methodology, with
an argument that some of the casualties could have resulted from the long-term negative
health effects of the Saddam Hussein era. The British Foreign Minister Straw has written
a formal Ministerial Response rejecting the findings of the Lancet report on the grounds
that the data analyzed were inaccurate.16
The second article, “Mortality After the 2003 Invasion of Iraq: A Cross-Sectional
Cluster Sample Survey,”17 increased the number of clusters surveyed from 33 to 47
clusters and reported an estimate of between 426,369 and 793,663 Iraqi civilian deaths
from violent causes since the beginning of Operation Iraqi Freedom. This article, too, has
sparked some controversy. Robert Blendon, director of the Harvard Program on Public
Opinion and Health and Social Policy, defended the study in an interview with the New
York Times, saying that interviewing urban dwellers chosen at random was “the best of
11 Steven R. Hurst, “Iraqi Official: 150 Civilians Dead,” Associated Press, Nov. 10, 2006.
12 Sudarsan Raghavan, “War’s Toll on Iraqis Put at 22,950 in ‘06; Statistics From Health Ministry
Official Show Tripling of Civilian, Police Deaths,” Post-Newsweek Media, Inc, Jan. 8, 2007,
p.A1.
13 Ibid.
14 Louise Roug and Doug Smith, “The Conflict in Iraq: War’s Iraqi Death Toll Tops 50,000;
Higher than the U.S. estimate but thought to be undercounted, the tally is equivalent to 570,000
Americans killed in three years,” Los Angeles Times, June 25, 2006, p. A1.
15 Les Roberts, Ridyah Lafta, Richard Garfield et al., “Mortality Before and After the 2003
Invasion of Iraq: Cluster Sample Survey,” The Lancet, Oct. 29, 2004, 364 (9448): 1857-64.
16 Jack Straw, Written U.K. Ministerial Statement Responding to a Lancet Study on Iraqi
Casualty Numbers, Nov. 16, 2004, at [http://tinyurl.com/3hv8j].
17 Gilbert Burnham, Riyadh Lafta, Shannon Doocy et al., “Mortality After the 2003 Invasion of
Iraq: A Cross-Sectional Cluster Sample Survey,” The Lancet, Oct. 21, 2006, 368(9545):1421-
1429.

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what you can expect in a war zone.”18 However, Stephen Moore, a consultant for Gorton
Moore International, objected more strongly to the methods used by the researchers,
commenting in the Wall Street Journal that the Lancet article lacked some of the
hallmarks of good research: a small margin of error, a record of the demographics of
respondents (so that one can be sure one has captured a fair representation of an entire
population), and a large number of cluster points.19
A number of nonprofit groups have also released unofficial estimates of Iraqi
civilian casualties. The Iraq Body Count (IBC) is one source often cited by the media; it
bases its online casualty estimates on media reports of casualties, some of which may
involve security forces as well as civilians. As of January 22, 2007, the IBC estimated
that between 54,395 and 60,059 civilians had died as a result of military action.20 Because
the IBC documents each of the casualties it records with a media source and provides a
minimum and a maximum estimate, some regard its numbers as fairly authoritative.
The Brookings Institution has used modified numbers from the UN human rights
report and Iraq Body count to develop its own estimate for Iraqi civilians who have died
by violence. It estimates that 90 percent of the deaths reported in the UN human rights
report happened as a result of violence, and they use this number as an estimate of January
2006 to July 2006 Iraqi civilian deaths due to violence. To expand their dates to include
May 2003 to December 2005, they include 1.75 times the Iraq Body Count total (they do
not specify the minimum or maximum total) to reflect “the fact that estimates for civilian
casualties from the Iraqi Ministry of the Interior were 75 percent higher than those of our
Iraq Body Count-based estimate over the aggregate December 2003 - May 2005 period.”21
By using this method, the Brookings Institution estimates that between May 2003 and
October 31, 2006, 70,100 Iraqi civilians have died due to violence.
Finally, the Iraq Coalition Casualty Count (ICCC) has been tracking U.S. and
coalition casualties since the beginning of the war and has recently begun tracking civilian
casualties as well using an IBC-like method of posting media reports of deaths. ICCC,
like IBC, is prone to the kind of errors likely when using media reports for data: some
deaths may not be reported in the media, while other deaths may be reported more than
once. Nonetheless, both sources may be useful for different kinds of inquiries. The ICCC
separates police and soldier deaths from civilian deaths and thus may be useful in tracking
the two populations separately. The ICCC estimates that there were 23,328 civilian
deaths from April 28, 2005 (Shiite-led government announced) through January 22, 2006,
and 5,984 police and security force deaths from June 2003 through November 9, 2006.22
crsphpgw
18 Sabrina Tavernise and Donald G. McNeil, Jr., “Iraqi Dead May Total 600,000, Study Says.”
New York Times, Oct. 11, 2006, p. A16.
19 Steven E. Moore, “655,000 War Dead?” Wall Street Journal, Oct. 18, 2006, p. A.20.
20 Iraq Body Count at [http://www.iraqbodycount.net]. IBC is a nongovernmental organization
managed by researchers and volunteers.
21 Brookings Institution, Iraq Index: Tracking Reconstruction and Security in Post-Saddam Iraq,
Sept. 7, 2006, at [http://www.brookings.edu/fp/saban/iraq/index.pdf], p. 10.
22 Iraq Coalition Casualty Count, at [http://icasualties.org/oif/IraqiDeaths.aspx]. ICCC is a
nongovernmental organization managed by researchers and volunteers.

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