Order Code RS21754
Updated February 10, 2005
CRS Report for Congress
Received through the CRS Web
Military Forces: What is the Appropriate Size
for the United States?
Edward F. Bruner
Specialist in National Defense
Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division
Summary
For several years, some Members of Congress and other military analysts have
argued that the U.S. Armed Forces are too small to adequately meet all the requirements
arising in the post-Cold War era, and particularly in the Global War on Terrorism
(GWOT). In January 2004, the Department of Defense acknowledged a problem by
temporarily adding 30,000 troops to the authorized active duty end strength of the Army.
Congress addressed the issue by raising statutory end strength in the FY2005
authorization bill (P.L. 108-375). This report describes the background of this action,
current Administration planning, and assesses significant issues for the 109th Congress.
The report will be updated.
Background
Throughout the Cold War, end strength of the U.S. active duty force never dropped
below 2.0 million personnel and peaked at over 3.5 million during the Korean and
Vietnam Wars.1 From 1989 to 1999, end strength dropped steadily from 2.1 million to
1.4 million, where it has remained. Force structure dropped even more with active Army
divisions, for example, going from 18 to 10. Expectations that military requirements
would diminish, however, were not realized; U.S. forces deployed to new missions in
such places as the Persian Gulf, Somalia, Haiti, the Balkans, and, with the recent advent
of the GWOT, Afghanistan and other far-flung places. The experience of Operation Iraqi
Freedom
suggests that U.S. ground forces, in particular, are stretched thin.
1 CRS Report RL31349, Defense Budget for FY2003: Data Summary, by Stephen Daggett and
Amy Belasco. See p. 16 for historical personnel levels and p. 17 for force structure levels. End
strength refers to the number of uniformed personnel at the end of a fiscal year and is a measure
of the total size of the active forces. Force structure counts major combat elements, such as
divisions or carrier battle groups, and does not directly reflect support elements.
Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress

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Concerns about increased requirements for a smaller force surfaced over ten years
ago, initially focused on readiness. A 1994 Defense Science Board report found “pockets
of unreadiness” attributed to turbulence in the armed forces.2 The House Armed Services
Committee discerned problems in the field and challenged Administration assertions that
readiness remained high; by 1997 they asserted that “The post-Cold War defense
drawdown and the expanding demands of manpower- intensive peacekeeping and
humanitarian operations ... are placing at risk the decisive military edge that this nation
enjoyed at the end of the Cold War ...” 3 Other studies highlighted problems stemming
from the operating tempo of units (OPTEMPO) and personnel (PERSTEMPO).4 Various
solutions were proposed. Many suggested fewer overseas commitments, but no
Administration stemmed demands for U.S. forces. Congress mandated DOD to
compensate soldiers who were deployed too long or too often, but September 11, 2001,
caused that law to be waived. Technological advances made transforming U.S. forces
more combat effective against conventional forces, but could not substitute for manpower
needed in the unconventional and asymmetric environments of “stability” operations. In
contrast, some charged that the Army, in particular, was resisting such “constabulary”
operations and therefore managed its personnel inefficiently.
The combat phase of the 2003 Iraq War was won quickly with fewer forces than
many analysts expected. The occupation phase, however, soon involved some 220,000
troops. At the first anniversary of combat, DOD staged the “largest troop rotation since
World War II.” All active Army divisions were involved. Indicators that forces were
stretched thin included Reserve Component and Marine Corps units committed for over
a year (shorter tours had been the norm); many personnel came under “stop-loss” orders
that kept them from leaving service, were extended in their tours, or were anticipating
multiple combat tours. Ceremonial companies from The Old Guard5 in Arlington, VA
were deployed to Djibouti, and no Army division was available as a strategic reserve (air
and naval forces were shifted to cover key contingencies).6 A House bill was introduced
to increase the Armed Forces by 83,700 personnel for five years.7 Various Senators have
proposed either adding one Army and one Marine division or permanently increasing the
Army by 10,000 soldiers.8 No decreases to end strength have been proposed. Whether
from internal or external pressure, in January 2004, DOD responded.
2 Defense Science Board Task Force on Readiness: Final Report, May, 1994.
3 House Committee on National Security, Military Readiness 1997: Rhetoric and Reality, Apr.
9, 1997.
4 CRS Report 98-41, Military Readiness, Operations Tempo (OPTEMPO) and Personnel Tempo
(PERSTEMPO): Are U.S. Forces Doing Too Much?
by Michael C. Ryan and, GAO/NSIAD-96-
111BR, Military Readiness: Data and Trends for January 1990 to March 1995, March 1996.
5 One company of the regiment that provides ceremonial and contingency support for the
National Capitol was deployed for the first time since the Vietnam War.
6 Robert Burns, “U.S. plans extra air power on Asia while ground forces focus on Iraq,”
Associated Press, Jan. 19, 2004.
7 H.R. 3696. Note, an increase in one service might create demands in another, e.g., another Army
division would require more Air Force tactical air control parties and training sorties.
8 Joseph C. Anselmo, “Pentagon Plans for Bigger, Better Army With ‘Spike,’” CQ Weekly, Jan.
31, 2004, p. 270.

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Administration End Strength Initiative
Before the House Armed Services Committee on January 28, 2004, the Chief of Staff
of the Army, General Peter Schoomaker, testified that he had been authorized by the
Secretary of Defense to increase end strength of the Army by 30,000 personnel on a
temporary, emergency basis.9 He argued that a permanent, legislated increase would be
unwise and unnecessary. He asserted that a permanent increase would create a burden on
planned defense budgets in the out years, citing $1.2 billion annually for each increase of
10,000 troops. Some ongoing programs were presented as, over time, providing a more
efficient and usable force structure within current Army end strength.
General Schoomaker began making organizational changes shortly after he became
Chief of Staff in August, 2003. He ordered divisions to create more combat “modules”
by forming four new brigades from their existing three brigades and divisional support
forces. Once implemented, this would provide 10 additional brigade-equivalent
maneuver elements for the rotation base. Including planned Stryker brigades could
eventually raise the number of brigades available from 33 to 48.10 He is pursuing a “unit
manning” policy, rather than rotating individuals to deployed units. He would also shift
from the “Cold-war” mix of combat capabilities to one geared to the less technologically-
advanced enemies, joint operations, and stability-type operations now faced. Examples
include reducing air defense, artillery, and ordnance unit strength and increasing military
police, civil affairs, and transportation capabilities.
The Army and DOD have also been seeking other ways to glean manpower
efficiencies. General Schoomaker noted that 5,000 soldier positions were converted to
civilian in 2003 — making more soldiers available for deployment — and he anticipated
finding 5,000 positions in 2004. This raises issues about the numbers of civilians and
contractors needed by the Services. Another organizational initiative has been “re-
balancing” the mix of Active Duty and Reserve Component forces to increase fairness and
flexibility in deploying the total force and to allow initial deployments with fewer reserve
forces. Other measures have potential to reduce military manpower requirements over
time, such as reposturing U.S. forces overseas and base closings and realignments at
home scheduled for 2005.
Considerations for Congress
Congress debated the Administration’s end strength initiative in the FY2005 defense
authorization bill. The Senate version, S. 2400, endorsed the Administration’s proposal
to increase the Army by 30,000 temporarily over three years. The House version, H.R.
4200, boosted the Army by 30,000, added 9,000 Marines, and designated $1.2 billion of
Iraq War funding towards associated costs. The result (P.L. 108-375) was to increase the
Army by 20,000 and the Marine Corps by 6,000 in FY2005, allowing for a further
9 Federal News Service, “Operation Iraqi Freedom Force Rotation Plan,” HASC Hearing, January
28, 2004, p.9. “Emergency” refers to increased military requirements resulting from the terrorist
attacks of September 11, 2001. “Temporary” was defined as the duration of the current
emergency situation in Iraq or four years.
10 This includes several non-divisional, independent brigades and armored cavalry regiments.
Costs may be $9.9 billion from FY2004-FY2007. Inside the Army, February 9, 2004, p. 6.

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increase in FY200611. Various considerations could influence the future debate. The
“right” size for the military addresses military requirements now and in the future. The
Administration acknowledges current stresses on the force, but interprets the situation as
a “spike” in requirements that will return to a lower, more manageable “plateau.” Critics
counter that the war on terrorism and occupation of Iraq could endure for many years and
that the continuing potential for sudden, major crises, such as in Korea, requires a robust
U.S. military force.12 One’s view of the future determines one’s idea of acceptable risk.
Other considerations may also influence the debate. Predicted federal deficits may
create pressures to restrain the overall budget, and competition between sectors may call
forth “guns versus butter” tensions. Within DOD, competition for funding will continue;
many will argue that personnel costs must be constrained so that research and
procurement for the transformational weapons of the future will be adequate.13 Some may
be influenced by implications of the end strength debate for particular military
installations and defense industry employers.
Should End Strength Be Increased, and by How Much? Many voices in
Congress and the military community publicly support an increase, and few argue against
it unconditionally.14 Proposals now range in magnitude from 10,000 permanent Army
positions to the Administration’s 30,000 temporary positions to 83,700 for five years
(introduced and supported by Democratic Members).15 Some proposals are couched in
force structure terms rather than manpower figures. Adding two combat divisions, for
example, could easily exceed 30,000 spaces when large numbers of necessary combat and
institutional support troops are provided.16 S. 11, before the 109thCongress, would raise
the Army to 532,400 and the Marine Corps to 188,000 on October 1, 2006.
Critics of the Administration proposal deem it inadequate and largely based on
accounting for current troop numbers rather than on an injection of fresh troops. The
increase of Army end strength to 510,000 is already less than the 30,000 advertised, given
that Congress authorized 482,400 in FY2004 (P.L. 108-136). Further, the Army has
11 Resulting Active Duty end strengths for FY2005 are: Army, 502,400; Navy, 365,900; Marine
Corps, 178,000; and, Air Force, 359,700.
12 Joseph C. Anselmo, “Pentagon Plans for Bigger, Better Army With “Spike”,” Congressional
Quarterly Weekly
, January 31, 2004, p. 270. For a discussion of the Korean contingency, see
CRS Report RS21582, North Korean Crisis: Possible Military Options, by Edward F. Bruner.
13 See CRS Report RL32238, Defense Transformation: Background and Oversight Issues for
Congress,
by Ronald O’Rourke.
14 On November 5, 2003, Representatives Heather Wilson and Jim Cooper wrote a letter to
President Bush urging that the FY2005 budget request include funding for two additional active
duty Army divisions in order to relieve stress on reserve component personnel. It was signed by
128 House Members, to include 54 of 61 HASC members.
15 H.R. 3696 would have increaseed the Army from 482,400 to 522,400; the Air Force from
359,300 to 388,000; the Marine Corps from 175,000 to 190,000; and, left the Navy at 373,800.
16 Anselmo, op. cit., “Duncan Hunter, R-Calif., chairman of the HASC, is pushing for the
permanent addition of two Army divisions made up of a combination of heavy forces and special
operations troops,” p. 271. CBO estimates up front costs of $18 million to stand up two divisions
and $6 million annual costs. HASC testimony, November 5, 2003.

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recently and regularly exceeded its authorized end strength as it concentrated on meeting
wartime requirements — 493,000 was even reported.17
A formal mechanism for determining the size of the U.S. military is the Quadrennial
Defense Review (QDR), last published by the Bush Administration in September, 2001,
per P.L. 103-62. As the next QDR will reach Congress in 2006, the process provides little
guidance for current force level debates. The 2001 QDR was considered ambitious,
premised on fielding military capabilities to prevail in any two theaters of operation in
overlapping timeframes. It also planned to maintain and prepare forces for smaller-scale
operations in peacetime, occupations, and a rotational base for forward-deployed forces.
Besides these operational requirements, the QDR emphasized the goal of rapid
transformation into the future force. The QDR looked at force structure rather than end
strength. In retrospect, it did not predict the stress of trying to meet all developing
wartime, peacetime presence, and transformation requirements at the same time. Many
observers believe that U.S. troops, active and reserve, have been bearing the load of that
stress for some time and that an increase in end strength — failing an unexpected, sudden
victory in the War on Terror — is justified to help relieve that stress.
Should Any End Strength Increase Be “Permanent” or “Temporary”?
The Administration proposal to increase the Army’s size would only be in effect for four
years. This is based on the premises that, in the interim, manpower requirements might
decrease, initiatives to find greater efficiencies within the current force might bear fruit,
or both. If so, the Army will have avoided some near term and longer term cost
differentials between permanent and temporary solutions. A permanent increase would
require additional resources for recruiting, retention, and training activities. Also, any
change upwards in permanent force structure could possibly negate some anticipated
savings from base closures in the upcoming BRAC process.
Critics assert that DOD premises may be faulty; a sudden reduction in military
requirements bucks the tide of recent history, and, finding more manpower through
internal efficiencies has probably been a goal not well-realized by this and preceding
Administrations. Whether or not one accepts DOD premises, the method by which it
plans to implement a temporary increase is subject to criticism. Rather than recruiting all
new personnel, current personnel are being retained, many through the imposition of “stop
loss” orders to extend tours of duty. Some question the fairness of making those currently
serving sacrifice further to avoid recruiting additional personnel for the future.18 Some
argue that paying the costs for a permanent increase now would avoid the risk of
discovering a few years from now that the forces are inadequate. Congress could revisit
and correct end strength in each annual authorization bill.19 Others, however, believing
the situation will ease, would argue that taking such a step is premature.
17 See Anselmo, op. cit., p. 272. On December 31, 2003, DOD reported the size of the Active
Duty Army to be 490,174. See [http://web1.whs.osd.mil/mmid/military/miltop.htm] for current
Service statistics.
18 Military Officers Association of America. “Stop-Loss: The New Draft,” MOAA Legislative
Update
, February 13, 2004.
19 Congress has, in the past, usually avoided annual end strength fluctuations as a stable end
strength provides management efficiencies for the Services.

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What Kind of Forces Do We Need? Specific types of forces needed will be
defined by perceptions of future requirements, recent experiences, and response to current
stresses. Congress influences the type of forces to be acquired by allocating end strength
among the four Services. Further refinements occur as specific weapons systems and
materiel are developed and procured, and through the oversight process. Whether or not
to create dedicated “constabulary” forces remains an issue.
Substantial ground combat forces will likely be needed, as “stabilization” efforts in
Afghanistan and Iraq have no defined end point20 and other nations of concern, such as
Iran, Syria, and North Korea retain a potential for future armed confrontation. Combat
campaigns in both Afghanistan and Iraq demonstrated the value of U.S. Special
Operations Forces. SOF strength is being increased and is particularly important to the
War on Terrorism, but that strength is accounted for within the Services that contribute
their personnel to SOF units. In Iraq the ability of U.S. mechanized infantry and armored
forces to survive and prevail against both regular and nonconventional enemy forces, even
in urban areas, was striking. To reinforce success, some advocate maintaining and
increasing units armed with Abrams tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles.21
For some time, the Services have denoted various specialized units as being Low
Density/High Demand. Examples from the Army are civil affairs, military police, and
transportation units. Examples from the Air Force are SOF air crews, air controllers, and
crews for airborne warning and control system (AWACS) and electronic warfare (EW)
aircraft. LD/HD assets are, as are infantrymen, needed both in combat and stability
operations.22 Some analysts have recommended that DOD organize one or more division-
level headquarters to specialize in stability operations.23 This supposes that such a
capability will continue to be needed and that specialized units could improve the
planning, effectiveness, and efficiency of U.S. participation in stability operations. This
new unit, although it might include some existing combat elements, likely would not
reduce current pressures for an increase in end strength.
20 Alex Keto, “Rumsfeld Says ‘No Timetable’ To Pull Troops Out Of Iraq,” Dow Jones
Newswires
, February 12, 2004.
21 For more detail, see CRS Report RL31946, Iraq War: Defense Program Implications for
Congress
, by Ronald O’Rourke.
22 For a more detailed discussion of using U.S. forces for peacekeeping and stability operations,
see CRS Issue Brief IB94040, Peacekeeping and Related Stability Operations: Issues of U.S.
Military Involvement
, by Nina Serafino.
23 Center for Technology and National Security Policy, National Defense University,
Transforming for Stabilization and Reconstruction Operations, November 12, 2003.