Order Code IB96038
CRS Issue Brief for Congress
Received through the CRS Web
U.S. International Trade:
Data and Forecasts
Updated November 24, 2004
Dick K. Nanto and Thomas Lum
Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division
Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress

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CONTENTS
SUMMARY
MOST RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
BACKGROUND AND ANALYSIS
Background
U.S. Merchandise Trade Balance
Merchandise Trade Balance in Volume Terms
Current Account Balance
Forecasts
U.S. Bilateral Trade Balances

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U.S. International Trade: Data and Forecasts
SUMMARY
In 2003 the United States incurred a
The trade deficit eased temporarily dur-
merchandise trade deficit of $535.7 billion on
ing the recession of 1990-1991, but it wors-
a Census basis and $549.4 billion on a bal-
ened over 1993-95 as the United States recov-
ance-of-payments basis (BoP). A surplus in
ered faster than did Europe or Japan. In 1997-
services trade of $60 billion gave a deficit of
2000, it worsened further as the Asian finan-
$489.3 billion on goods and services (BoP) for
cial crisis caused a fall in U.S. exports to Asia
the year, 17% higher than 2002. Year-to-date
and a marked increase in U.S. imports from
(January-September 2004), the trade deficit in
Asia as well as rising U.S. imports of capital.
goods and services, at $444.5 billion, is 19.8%
The 2001 recession caused the deficit to
higher compared to the same period in 2003.
shrink, but as the economy has recovered and
oil prices have risen, it has grown signifi-
Since 1976, the United States has in-
cantly.
curred continual merchandise trade deficits.
They increased dramatically from $36.5 bil-
In 2003, U.S. goods trade totaled $1.98
lion in 1982 to a peak in 1987 at $159.6 bil-
trillion, compared to $1.85 trillion in 2002 and
lion. The deficit dropped to $74.1 billion in
$1.87 trillion in 2001, with exports of $724
1991 but rose to $436.1 billion in 2000 and to
billion and imports of $1,259 billion (Census
$535.7 billion in 2003. (Census basis).
basis). In 2003, U.S. exports increased by
4.4%, while imports rose by 8.4%.
Overall U.S. trade deficits reflect a short-
age of savings in the domestic economy and a
The broadest measure of U.S. interna-
reliance on capital imports to finance that
tional economic transactions is the balance on
shortfall. Capital inflows support a stronger
current account. In addition to merchandise
dollar which, along with foreign trade barriers,
trade, it includes trade in services and unilat-
can help make U.S. products relatively expen-
eral transfers. In 2003, the current account
sive in some overseas locations, thereby
deficit rose to $549.4 billion from $480.9
contributing to a trade deficit in goods.
billion in 2002. After reaching a peak of
Outsourcing by U.S. companies also creates
$160.7 billion in 1987, the current account
foreign competition for U.S.-made goods and
deficit had fallen steadily through 1991, when
services, although it tends to generate foreign
it reached a surplus of $3.8 billion, before
demand for U.S.-made components.
turning into deficit again. The current account
deficit is projected to rise to about $565.8
Trade deficits are a concern for Congress
billion in 2004.
because they may generate trade friction and
pressures for the government to do more to
In trade in advanced technology products,
open foreign markets, to shield U.S. producers
the U.S. balance dropped from a surplus of
from foreign competition, or to assist U.S.
$32.2 billion in 1997 to a deficit of $27.4
industries to become more competitive. As
billion in 2003. In trade in passenger automo-
the deficit increases, the risk also rises of a
biles, the United States has been running a
precipitous drop in the value of the dollar and
deficit, particularly with Japan, Canada, Ger-
disruption in financial markets.
many, and Mexico.
Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress

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11-24-04
MOST RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
In 2003, the trade deficit in goods and services, at $489.3 billion (BoP basis), was 17%
higher than 2002. The 2003 deficit on goods trade with China was $123.9 billion (Census
basis), with the European Union was $94.2 billion, with Japan was $65 billion, with Mexico
was $40.6 billion, and with the Asian Newly Industrialized Countries (Hong Kong, South
Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan) was $20.8 billion.
Year-to-date (January-September 2004), the trade deficit in goods and services, at
$444.5 billion, is 19.8% higher compared to the same period in 2003. In 2003, the average
monthly trade deficit (goods and services) was over $41 billion. In 2004, the trade deficit
has been averaging nearly $49 billion per month. The year-to-date (January-September
2004) deficit on goods trade with Mexico was $33 billion (Census basis), with Japan was
$55 billion, with China was $114 billion, with the European Union (EU-15) was $79.9
billion, and with the Asian Newly Industrialized Countries (Hong Kong, South Korea,
Singapore, and Taiwan) was $15 billion.
BACKGROUND AND ANALYSIS
Background
Between 1980 and 1987, both the trade and current account deficits increased but then
diminished substantially between 1988 and 1991. As the American economy boomed over
the 1990s and into 2000, these deficits ballooned and became one of the few negatives in an
otherwise upbeat economic picture. Despite eliminating the federal budget deficit from
FY1998-2001, the trade deficit side of the so-called “twin deficits” continued to increase.
The recession of 2001, brought a slight easing of the trade deficit as import demand
slackened, but as the economy has been recovering in 2002-2004, the negative balances have
grown dramatically. This issue brief provides historical and current data as well as forecasts
of U.S. trade and current accounts.
U.S. trade balances are macroeconomic variables that may or may not indicate
underlying problems with the competitiveness of particular industries or what some refer to
as the competitiveness of a nation. The reason is that overall trade flows are determined,
within the framework of institutional barriers to trade and the activities of individual
industries primarily by macroeconomic factors such as rates of growth, savings and
investment behavior (including government budget deficits/surpluses), international capital
flows, and exchange rates.
Increases in trade deficits may diminish economic growth, since net exports (exports
minus imports) are a component of gross domestic product. In the late 1980s and early
1990s, export growth was an important element in overall U.S. economic growth. In 1999,
merchandise exports accounted for about 8.5% of GDP, compared with 5.9% in 1990.
Recently, however, rising trade deficits have reduced total domestic demand in the economy,
although the deficits have been offset by rising consumer, business, and government demand.
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The risk to the U.S. economy of a rising trade (and current account) deficit is that it
could lead to a large drop in the value of the U.S. dollar, disrupt financial markets, and
increase inflationary pressures. If foreign investors stop offsetting the deficit by buying
dollar-denominated assets (in order to balance U.S. inflows and outflows of dollars), the
value of the dollar could drop precipitously. In that case, U.S. interest rates would have to
rise to attract more foreign investment, financial markets could be disrupted, and inflationary
pressures would rise. Currently, foreign investment in dollar assets along with purchases of
securities by central banks in countries such as China and Japan have been sufficient to keep
the value of the dollar from falling too far. These central banks have intervened regularly in
currency markets to keep the value of their currencies relatively stable with respect to the
dollar. (As of September 7, 2004, Japan had $808 billion in foreign currency reserves, and
as of June 2004, China held $471 billion in foreign exchange reserves accumulated primarily
through central bank intervention.). Despite the intervention, the value of the dollar has
declined by about 15% since 2000. The current account deficit is now at 5% of gross
domestic product — a level considered by most economists to be a an indicator of possible
currency instability ahead. In the International Monetary Fund’s July 2004 consultation with
the United States, its directors reiterated their long-standing concern about the large U.S.
current account deficit which is leaving the United States “highly dependent upon private and
official inflows from abroad.” (IMF, Public Information Notice 04/77, July 30, 2004) The
accompanying IMF staff report concluded that the U.S. current account deficit is still
expected to remain large at around 5% of GDP and has the attendant risk of abrupt
adjustments of interest and exchange rates. Treasury officials countered that they viewed the
current account deficit as a reflection of the buoyancy of the U.S. economy and weakness of
foreign demand rather than a policy concern. (IMF, IMF Country Report No. 04/230, July
2004, p. 28, 38.)
The U.S. government compiles trade data in four different ways. The data on goods
trade are first reported on a Census basis. These numbers are then adjusted and reported on
an international transactions basis, which is essentially the same as the balance of payments
(BoP) basis (including adjustments for valuation, coverage, and timing and excluding
military transactions). The data are finally reported in terms of national income and product
accounts (NIPA). In 2003, for example, the U.S. merchandise trade deficit on a Census basis
was $535.7 billion, on a balance-of-payments basis was $547.6 billion, and on a NIPA basis
was $519 billion. Most bilateral and sectoral data are reported only on a Census basis.
Export and import data also may be adjusted for inflation to gauge movement in trade
volumes as distinct from trade values. Conceptually, this procedure is analogous to adjusting
macroeconomic data from nominal to real values. The Census Bureau also reports imports
on a c.i.f. (cost-insurance-freight) basis which includes the value of insurance, international
shipping, and other charges incurred in bringing merchandise to U.S. ports of entry. The
Customs, or f.a.s. (free-alongside-ship), data do not include these supplementary costs. The
data on merchandise trade presented below do not include insurance and freight charges that
are counted in U.S. services trade.
U.S. Merchandise Trade Balance
The merchandise (goods) trade balance is the most widely known and frequently used
indicator of U.S. international economic activity (see Figure 1). In 2003, total U.S.
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merchandise trade on a balance of payments basis amounted to $1.97 trillion, with exports
of $713 billion and imports of $1,261 billion. The U.S. merchandise trade deficit rose 13.4%
in 2003 to $547.6 billion (BoP basis), following a 13.0% increase in 2002. Prior to 1992,
the deficit had decreased for 4 consecutive years, from a previous peak of $159.6 billion in
1987 to $76.9 billion in 1991. The increase in the trade deficit to 2000 was due largely to
sluggish demand for U.S. exports, caused primarily by a combination of capital inflows into
the U.S. market with slow economic recovery in other countries and increasing demand for
imports caused mainly by faster economic growth in the United States. As a share of gross
domestic product (GDP), the deficit on goods trade rose from 1.9% in 1990 to 5.1% in 2003.
Figure 1. U.S. Imports, Exports, Merchandise
Trade Balance, and Real Effective Dollar Exchange
Rate, 1981-2003
$ Billions
Exchange Rate Index
1200
Real Effective Dollar
1000
Exchange Rate (Right Scale)
Exports
800
Imports
600
400
200
0
Trade Balance
-200
-400
-600
81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Year
Sources: U.S. Department ofCommerce; IMF. Note: For Exchange Rate, 1995= 100
As shown in Table 1 and Figure 2,
Figure 2. Annual Growth in U.S.
U.S. merchandise exports decreased in
Exports and Imports, 1982-2003
1998 for the first time since 1985, and
(Census Basis)
again fell in 2001 and 2002 in response to
30
the global slowdown. In general,
25
however, they have been increasing each
20
year. The growth of imports has also been
15
high, although they too fell by 4.4% in
10
2001 before recovering in 2002. In 2003,
5
import growth was nearly double export
0
growth. Currently, there is little prospect
-5
for a significant reduction in the trade
deficit. Since U.S. imports are about 75%
-10
greater than U.S. exports, exports must
-15
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
grow 75% faster than imports just for the
deficit to remain constant.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
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Merchandise Trade Balance in Volume Terms
Like other economic variables, exports and imports, reported in terms of their values,
can change merely because prices change. Trade data, therefore, can be adjusted for inflation
by dividing by a price index. Such corrected data are referred to as “volume” and not “real,”
because some trade commodities actually are reported in volume terms (e.g., tons of wheat).
The volume data provide a more accurate picture of how the underlying flows of
merchandise are changing.
As shown in Table 2 and Figure
Figure 3. U.S. Exports, Imports, and
3, the constant-dollar value, or
Trade Balance by Volume (2000 base),
physical volume, of merchandise
1990-2004
exports increased by 2.6% in 2003
2000
after decreasing by 4.5% in 2002 and
1750
6.3% in 2001 and compared to an
1500
increase of 11.6% in 2000. The
U.S. Imports
1250
physical volume of imports rose by
1000
5.4% in 2003 compared to an increase
750
of 3.4% in 2002 and a fall of 3.6% in
500
250
2001. In 2000, merchandise imports
U.S. Exports
0
grew by 13.5%. Because the growth
-250
of merchandise imports is higher than
-500
the growth of exports and because
-750
Trade Balance
imports exceed exports by over 80%
-1000
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
0
1
2
3
on a physical volume basis, the U.S.
trade deficit in terms of volume is also
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
increasing. In recent years, the deficit
in volume terms has varied relative to
the deficit in value terms partly because of fluctuations in oil import prices (when oil prices
rise, the deficit in value rises relative to that in volume terms).
Current Account Balance
The current account provides a broader measure of U.S. trade because it includes
services, investment income, and unilateral transfers in addition to merchandise. (See Figure
4) The balance on services includes travel, transportation, fees and royalties, insurance
payments, and other government and private services. The balance on investment income
includes income received on U.S. assets abroad minus income paid on foreign assets in the
U.S. Unilateral transfers are international transfers of funds for which there is no quid pro
quo. These include private gifts, remittances, pension payments, and government grants
(foreign aid).
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Table 3 summarizes the
Figure 4. U.S. Current Account and
components of the U.S. current
Merchandise Trade Balances, 1982-2003
account. The U.S. deficit on
current account fell from a
record-high $160.7 billion in
1987, to $79.0 billion in 1990,
and rose to a $3.7 billion
surplus in 1991 (primarily
because of payments to fund
the Gulf War by Japan and
other nations). However, in
1992, the current account
deficit increased significantly
to $48.0 billion and again to
$82.0 billion in 1993, $118.0
billion in 1994, $209.6 billion
in 1998, and increased to
$413.4 billion in 2000 or 4.2%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
of GDP — up from 1.3% in
1990. In 2001, the current
account deficit fell to $385.7 billion or 3.9% of GDP, but rose again to $473.9 billion in 2002
and $530.7 billion in 2003 or 5.3% of GDP.
Since the merchandise trade balance comprises the greater part of the current account,
the two tend to track each other. Unlike the merchandise trade balance, however, the
services account has been in surplus since 1975. In 2003, the United States surplus in its
services trade was $60.0 billion. Since Americans are such large investors in foreign
economies, the United States traditionally has had a surplus in its investment income. This
surplus on income from investments, which reached a high of $36.3 billion in 1983, dropped
to $7.2 billion in 2002 but rebounded to $33.3 billion in 2003. The U.S. deficit in unilateral
transfers (primarily dollars sent abroad by foreign workers and recent immigrants) at an
estimated $67.4 billion in 2003 reflects a rising trend and more than double the level of the
late-1980s. This partially offsets the U.S. surplus in services.
Forecasts
According to Global Insight, a leading U.S. economic forecasting firm, in 2004 the U.S.
merchandise (goods) trade deficit is expected to increase to about $661.5 billion on a
balance-of-payments basis (see Figure 5). In 2005, the deficit is projected to decrease
slightly to $659.2 billion (see Table 4). As for the U.S. current account deficit, Global
Insight projects it to increase to around $659.4 billion in 2004 and to rise further to $681.5
billion in 2005 and exceed $700 billion in 2010.
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Figure 5. U.S. Merchandise Trade and Current
Account Deficit, Actual from 1998 and Forecast to
2006 (in current dollars)
$Billions
0
Actual
Forecast
-100
-200
Current Account
-300
-400
-500
-600
Goods Trade
-700
-800
97
98
99
2000
01
02
03
04
05
06
Source: See Table 4.
Year
Figure 6 shows the current account balance as a percent of U.S. gross domestic product.
It has grown in magnitude from near zero in 1980 to -5.3% in 2003 and is projected to
decline slightly in 2004-2006.
Figure 6. U.S. Current Account Balance as a Percent
of U.S. Gross Domestic Product, 1983-2006
(forecast)
Actual
Forecast
1
0.1
0
-1
-0.8
-1.1
-1.3
-1.2
-1.5-1.5-1.5
-2
-1.8
-1.7
-2.4
-2.4
-2.3
-3
-2.8
-3.1
-3.3-3.4
-4
-3.9
-4.2
-5
-4.7
-4.9
-5.3-5.2-5.2
-6
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Data from U.S. Department of Commerce. Forecasts by Global Insight, Inc., February
2004
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U.S. Bilateral Trade Balances
The overall U.S. merchandise trade balance consists of deficits or surpluses with all
trading partners. Many economists view this figure as more significant than bilateral trade
balances, since rising deficits with some nations are often offset by declining deficits or
growing surpluses with others. Nonetheless, abnormally large or rapidly increasing trade
deficits with particular countries are often viewed as indicators that underlying problems may
exist with market access, the competitiveness of particular industries, currency misalignment,
or macroeconomic adjustment. Table 5 shows U.S. trade balances with selected nations.
Most of the U.S. trade deficit can be accounted for by trade with China, Japan, Canada,
Mexico, and Germany. Trade with the oil exporting countries also is in deficit. U.S. trade
surpluses occur in trade with the Netherlands, Australia, Belgium, Hong Kong, and other
countries (see Figure 7). In 2003, Canada was America’s largest merchandise trading
partner, followed by Mexico, China, Japan, and Germany (China overtook Japan for third
place in 2003). Table 6 lists the United States’ top 30 trading partners ranked by trade
turnover (imports plus exports). Trade with Canada accounts for 20% of total U.S. trade.
By far, Canada is the largest supplier of U.S. imports and the top purchaser of U.S. exports.
Trade with Mexico accounts for 12%, and trade with Japan accounts for 9% of total U.S.
trade. Trade with China, which accounts for 9% of total U.S. trade, is expanding rapidly.
Table 7 lists the U.S. top 10 deficit trading partners. In 2000, China overtook Japan as
the top U.S. deficit trading partner. The next highest deficit trading partners are Japan,
Canada, Mexico, Germany, and Ireland. Table 8 lists trade balances on goods, services, and
income, net unilateral transfers and current account balances for selected U.S. trading
partners in 2002.
Table 9 shows U.S. trade in advanced technology products. This includes about 500
commodity codes representing products whose technology is from a recognized high
technology field (e.g., biotechnology) or that represent the leading technology in a field. The
United States long ran a surplus in these products, but that surplus dropped sharply in 2000
and turned into a deficit in 2002. The surplus decreased from $32.2 billion in 1997 to $29.6
billion in 1998 and $19.1 billion in 1999. In 2000, the surplus fell to $5.3 billion. In 2003,
the deficit in U.S. trade in advanced technology products was $27.4 billion, a jump of 65%
over 2002.
Table 10 provides data on trade in passenger cars with major automobile producing
nations for 2003. This does not include foreign cars assembled in the United States. The
United States incurs the largest deficits in this trade with Japan, Canada, Germany, Mexico,
and South Korea.
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Figure 7. U.S. Merchandise Trade Balances with Selected
Nations, 2003
Country
China
-123
Japan
-66
Canada
-54
Mexico
-40
Germany
-39
Ireland
-18
Italy
-14.7
Malaysia
-14.4
Venezuela
-14
Taiwan
-14
Netherlands
9.7
Australia
6.6
Belgium
5
HongKong
4.7
UAR
2.4
Egypt
1.5
Panama
1.5
Singapore
1.4
Jamaica
1
Bahamas
0.6
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
$ Billions
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce (Census Bureau)
Figure 8. U.S. Balance of Trade in Goods and Services by
Month, 2003 and 2004 (in current dollars)
20
Services 2003
Services 2004
0
-20
Goods 2003
-40
-60
Goods 2004
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
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Table 1. U.S. Exports, Imports, and Merchandise Trade Balances,
1982-2003
(billions of U.S. dollars)
Census Basis
Balance of Payments Basis
Exports
Imports
Trade
Exports
Imports
Trade
Year
f.a.s.a
Customs
Balance
f.a.s.a
Customs
Balance
1982
212.3
243.9
-31.6
211.2
247.6
-36.5
1983
201.7
261.7
-60.0
201.8
268.9
-67.1
1984
218.7
330.5
-111.8
219.9
332.4
-112.5
1985
212.6
336.4
-123.8
215.9
338.1
-122.2
1986
226.4
365.7
-139.3
223.3
368.4
-145.1
1987
253.9
406.3
-152.4
250.2
409.8
-159.6
1988
323.3
441.9
-118.6
320.2
447.2
-127.0
1989
362.9
473.4
-110.5
359.9
477.7
-117.7
1990
392.9
495.2
-102.3
387.4
498.4
-111.0
1991
421.8
487.1
-65.3
414.1
491.0
-76.9
1992
448.2
532.6
-84.4
439.6
536.5
-96.9
1993
464.8
580.5
-115.7
456.9
589.4
-132.5
1994
512.6
663.2
-150.6
502.9
668.7
-165.8
1995
584.7
743.5
-158.8
575.2
749.4
-174.2
1996
625.1
795.3
-170.2
612.1
803.1
-191.0
1997
689.2
869.7
-180.5
678.4
876.5
-198.1
1998
682.1
911.9
-229.8
670.4
917.1
-246.7
1999
695.8
1,024.6
-328.8
684.0
1,030.0
-346.0
2000
781.9
1,218.0
-436.1
772.0
1,224.4
-452.4
2001
730.9
1,142.3
-411.4
718.7
1,145.9
-427.2
2002
693.5
1,163.6
-470.1
681.8
1,164.7
-482.9
2003
724.0
1,259.7
-535.7
713.1
1,260.7
-547.6
Source: Council of Economic Advisers. Economic Report of the President, January 2001,Table B-
103, p. 392; U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics, February 2003; U.S. Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. International Transactions Accounts Data.
Note: Goods on a Census basis are adjusted to a Balance of Payments basis to include changes in
ownership that occur without goods passing into or out of the customs territory of the United States,
to eliminate duplication, and to value transactions according to a standard definition. Export
adjustments include counting military sales as services not goods, adding private gift parcels, and
foreign official gold sales from U.S. private dealers. Import adjustments include adding in inland
freight in Canada, foreign official gold sales to U.S. private dealers , and subtracting imports by U.S.
military agencies.
a. Exports are valued on the f.a.s. basis, which refers to the free-alongside-ship value at the port of
export and generally includes inland freight, insurance, and other charges incurred in placing
the goods alongside the carrier at the port of exportation.
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b. Imports are valued as reported by the U.S. Customs Service. (Excludes import duties, the cost
of freight, insurance, and other charges incurred in bringing merchandise to the United States.)
Table 2. U.S. Merchandise Trade in Volume Terms, 2001-2003
(billions of chained 2000 dollars)
Export
Import
Net
Year
Exports
Imports
Growth
Growth
Exports
2001
723.6
-6.3
1180.9
-3.6
-457.3
2002
691.1
-4.5
1221.6
3.4
-530.5
2003
708.9
2.6
1287.4
5.4
-578.5
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Survey of Current Business, April 2004.
Table 3. U.S. Current Account Balances: 1985 to 2003
(billions of U.S. dollars)
Merchandise
Investment
Net
Current
Calendar
Services
Trade
Income
Unilateral
Account
Year
Balance b
Balance a
Balance c
Transfers d
Balance e
1985
-122.2
0.3
25.7
-22.0
-118.2
1986
-145.1
6.5
15.5
-24.1
-147.2
1987
-159.6
7.9
14.3
-23.3
-160.7
1988
-127.0
12.4
18.7
-25.3
-121.2
1989
-117.7
24.6
19.8
-26.2
- 99.5
1990
-111.0
30.2
28.6
-26.7
-79.0
1991
-76.9
45.8
24.1
10.8
3.7
1992
-96.9
57.8
24.2
-33.1
-48.0
1993
-132.5
62.3
25.3
-37.1
-82.0
1994
-165.8
67.4
17.1
-36.8
-118.0
1995
-174.2
77.9
20.9
-34.1
-109.5
1996
-191.0
87.1
22.3
-38.6
-120.2
1997
-198.1
90.0
12.6
-40.4
-136.0
1998
-246.7
81.8
3.8
-48.4
-209.6
1999
-346.0
82.8
13.2
-46.8
-296.8
2000
-452.4
74.1
20.6
-55.9
-413.4
2001
-427.2
64.5
23.6
-46.9
-385.7
2002
-482.9
61.2
7.2
-59.4
-473.9
2003
-547.6
51.0
33.3
-67.4
-530.7
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. International Transactions.
a. On a balance-of-payments basis.
b. Includes travel, transportation, fees and royalties, insurance payments, other government and private services,
and investment income.
c. Income receipts on U.S. assets abroad minus income payments on foreign assets in the United States.
d. International transfers of funds, such as private gifts, pension payments, and government grants for which
there is no quid pro quo.
e. The trade balance plus the service balance plus investment income balance plus net unilateral transfers,
although conceptually equal to the current account balance, may differ slightly as a result of rounding.

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Table 4. U.S. Merchandise and Current Account Trade:
Actual and Forecasts
(billions of U.S. dollars)
Actual
Forecast
1999 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Merchandise Trade
Exports
Actual
684.0
772.0
718.7
681.8
713.1
—
—
Global Insighta
—
—
—
—
—
823.7
920.9
Imports
Actual
1030.0
1224.4
1145.9
1164.7
1260.7
—
—
Global Insighta
—
—
—
—
—
1489.3
1583.2
Trade Balance
Actual
-346.0
-452.4
-427.2
-482.9
-547.6
—
—
Global Insighta
—
—
—
—
—
-661.5
-659.2
Services Trade Balance
Actual
82.8
74.1
64.5
61.2
51.0
—
—
Global Insighta
—
—
—
—
—
56.7
72.6
Current Account Balance
Actual
-292.9
-410.3
-393.4
-480.9
-549.4
—
—
Global Insighta
—
—
—
—
—
-659.4
-681.5
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Survey of Current Business, April 2003; U.S. Census Bureau,
Foreign Trade Statistics, February 2003; Global Insight, Monthly Forecast Update, International Trade Tables,
September 2004. All actual figures on a balance-of-payments basis.
a. Global Insight was created through the 2002 merger of Standard & Poor’s Data Resources Inc. (DRI) and
Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (WEFA).
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Table 5. U.S. Merchandise Trade Balances with Selected Nations:
1999-2003
(millions of U.S. dollars, Census basis)
Country
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Total
-331,945
-436,104
-411,389
-470,104
-535,699
North America
-57,073
-76,475
-83,190
-86,920
-95,012
Canada
-34,411
-51,897
-53,266
-49,760
-54,396
Mexico
-22,662
-24,577
-29,924
-37,202
-40,616
Western Europe
-47,256
-59,152
-63,985
-89,218
-101,325
European Union
-43,723
-54,954
-60,856
-82,368
-94,262
United Kingdom
-853
-1,775
-599
-7,617
-8,772
Germany
-28,305
-29,064
-29,037
-35,852
-39,199
France
-7,071
-9,439
-10,400
-9,389
-12,153
Italy
-12,344
-13,982
-13,908
-14,201
-14,867
Netherlands
10,939
12,165
10,024
8,471
9,731
European Free Trade
-4,116
-4,634
-3,332
-6,324
-6,039
Association (EFTA)
Former Soviet Republics
-4,123
-6,922
-4,096
-4,503
-6,615
Eastern Europe
-6,187
-10,166
-7,678
-8,283
-11,211
Pacific Rim Countries
-185,969
-215,434
-194,393
-215,005
-229,968
Japan
-73,920
-81,555
-68,962
-70,055
-65,965
China
-68,668
-83,833
-83,045
-103,115
-123,961
Newly Industrialized
-24,211
-26,814
-21,093
-22,073
-20,867
Countries (NICS)
Singapore
-1,941
-1,372
2,712
1,429
1,418
Hong Kong
2,116
3,133
4,423
3,283
4,692
Taiwan
-16,077
-16,097
-15,240
-13,805
-14,122
Republic of Korea
-8,308
-12,478
-12,988
-12,979
-12,865
South/Central American
-25,845
-38,233
-38,982
-17,902
-26,821
Countries
Argentina
2,339
1,596
913
-1,595
-734
Brazil
1,935
1,468
1,466
-3,403
-6,666
Colombia
-2,743
-3,297
-2,091
-2,018
-2,631
OPEC
-21,812
-48,012
-39,688
-34,482
-51,037
Venezuela
-5,981
-13,073
-9,552
-10,662
-14,305
Indonesia -7,575
-7,965
-7,605
-7,063
-7,000
Saudi Arabia
-342
-8,131
-7,363
-8,364
-13,473
Nigeria
-3,733
-9,816
-7,829
-4,907
-9,365
Trade Balance equals Total Exports (f.a.s. value) minus General Imports (Customs value).
Sources: United States Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
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Table 6. Top 30 U.S. Trading Partners Ranked by Total Trade in Goods
(Exports + Imports) in 2003
(millions of U.S. dollars)
Total
Exports
Imports
Trade
Country
Trade
(f.a.s.)
(customs)
Balance
World total
1,973,839
723,743
1,250,096
-526,353
1
Canada
393,496
169,480
224,016
-54,536
2
Mexico
234,656
97,457
137,199
-39,742
3
China
180,038
28,418
151,620
-123,202
4
Japan
170,548
52,063
118,485
-66,422
5
Germany
95,378
28,847
66,531
-37,684
6
United Kingdom
76,350
33,895
42,455
-8,560
7
Korea, South
61,027
24,098
36,929
-12,831
8
Taiwan
48,976
17,487
31,489
-14,002
9
France
45,963
17,068
28,895
-11,827
10
Malaysia
36,240
10,920
25,320
-14,400
11
Italy
35,862
10,570
25,292
-14,722
12
Ireland
33,463
7,698
25,765
-18,067
13
Netherlands
31,674
20,702
10,972
9,730
14
Singapore
30,866
16,575
14,291
2,284
15
Brazil
28,934
11,218
17,716
-6,498
16
Belgium
25,321
15,217
10,104
5,113
17
Hong Kong
22,312
13,542
8,770
4,772
18
Saudi Arabia
21,707
4,595
17,112
-12,517
19
Thailand
20,916
5,841
15,075
-9,234
20
Israel
19,644
6,878
12,766
-5,888
21
Australia
19,571
13,103
6,468
6,635
22
Venezuela
19,515
2,839
16,676
-13,837
23
Switzerland
19,129
8,660
10,469
-1,809
24
Philippines
18,037
7,992
10,045
-2,053
25
India
18,019
4,986
13,033
-8,047
26
Sweden
14,362
3,225
11,137
-7,912
27
Spain
12,565
5,935
6,630
-695
28
Indonesia
11,969
2,520
9,449
-6,929
29
Russia
10,831
2,450
8,381
-5,931
30
Columbia
10,100
3,754
6,346
10,100
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics; International Trade Commission (ITC), Dataweb
[http://dataweb.usitc.gov].
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Table 7. Top 10 U.S. Deficit Trading Partners: 2003
(billions of U.S. dollars, Customs basis)
U.S.
U.S.
Trade
Country
Exports
Imports
Balance
(f.a.s.)
(customs)
China
28.4
151.6
-123.2
Japan
52.0
118.4
-66.4
Canada
169.5
224.0
-54.5
Mexico
97.4
137.2
-39.8
Germany
28.8
66.5
-37.7
Ireland
7.7
25.7
-18.0
Italy
10.5
25.3
-14.8
Malaysia
10.9
25.3
-14.4
Taiwan
17.4
31.5
-14.1
Venezuela
2.8
16.6
-13.8
South Korea
24.0
36.9
-12.9
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics; International Trade
Commission (ITC), Dataweb [http://dataweb.usitc.gov].
Table 8. U.S. Current Account Balances With
Selected U.S. Trading Partners, 2003
(billions of U.S. dollars)
Merchandise
Investment
Net
Current
Services
Country
Trade
Income
Unilateral
Account
Balance b
Balance a
Balance c
Transfers d
Balance e
All Countries
-549.4
59.2
16.6
-68.3
-541.8
Canada
-52.3
4.8
13.7
-.8
-34.6
Japan
-71.8
11.7
-23.4
-.3
-83.7
United Kingdom
-8.5
3.1
-35.6
1.4
-39.6
European Union
-85.1
9.6
-19.6
-.1
-95.2
Eastern Europe
-8.5
1.9
.3
-3.8
-10.1
Latin America
-56.9
4.3
-.6
-17.5
-70.8
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Survey of Current Business, April 2004.
a. On a balance-of-payments basis.
b. Includes travel, transportation, fees and royalties, insurance payments, other government and private services,
and investment income.
c. Income receipts on U.S. assets abroad minus income payments on foreign assets in the United States.
d. International transfers of funds, such as private gifts, pension payments, and government grants for which
there is no quid pro quo.
e. The trade balance plus the service balance plus investment income balance plus net unilateral transfers,
although conceptually equal to the current account balance, may differ slightly as a result of rounding
errors.
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Table 9. U.S. Trade in Advanced Technology Products
(billions of U.S. dollars)
Year
U.S. Exports
U.S. Imports
Trade Balance
1990
93.4
59.3
34.1
1991
101.6
63.3
38.3
1992
107.1
71.9
35.2
1993
108.4
81.2
27.2
1994
120.7
98.1
22.6
1995
138.4
124.8
13.6
1996
154.9
130.4
24.5
1997
179.5
147.3
32.2
1998
186.4
156.8
29.6
1999
200.3
181.2
19.1
2000
227.4
222.1
5.3
2001
200.1
195.3
4.4
2002
178.6
195.1
-16.5
2003
179.8
207.2
-27.4
July 2004
15.8
19.5
-3.7
August
15.9
20.4
-4.4
September 17.2
20.4
-3.1
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services. FT-900, issued monthly.
Includes about 500 of some 22,000 commodity classification codes that meet the following criteria: (1)
contains products whose technology is from a recognized high technology field (e.g., biotechnology), (2)
represent leading edge technology in that field, and (3) constitute a significant part of all items covered in the
selected classification code.
Table 10. U.S. Trade in Passenger Automobiles by
Selected Countries, 2003
(millions of U.S. dollars)
Trading Partner
U.S. Exports
U.S. Imports
Trade Balance
Total World
22,111
114,365
-92,254
Canada
10,713
30,517
-19,804
Germany
3,937
19,711
-15,774
Korea
80
7,937
-7,857
Japan
464
32,195
-31,731
Mexico
2,498
11,826
-9,328
United Kingdom
877
5,005
5,882
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services. FT-900, issued monthly.
CRS-15

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