Order Code RS21874
June 29, 2004
CRS Report for Congress
Received through the CRS Web
Indonesian Elections
Bruce Vaughn
Analyst in Southeast and South Asian Affairs
Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division
Summary
On April 5, 2004, Indonesia successfully completed the first step of a multi-phase
election process for 2004. The first phase elected the national legislature and the new
regional representative council. The second phase, to be held on July 5, 2004, will seek
to elect a President. There will be a run-off election on September 20, 2004, if no single
candidate wins a majority in July. The April election was judged to be free and fair by
most observers. This bodes well for evolution of democracy in Indonesia. Nationalist
and secular parties were the most popular with voters. The Islamist parties limited
appeal can be attributed more to their anti-corruption and good governance policies than
to an overtly Islamist agenda. This report will be updated as events warrant.
April Parliamentary Elections
The Indonesian General Election Commission (KPU) registered 147 million
Indonesians to take part in the April 5, 2004 poll in which 7,800 candidates from 24
political parties ran for 550 seats in the national legislature (DPRD).1 One hundred and
twenty eight individuals were also elected to the new Regional Representative Council
(DPD). Analysis of the election attributed the decline in support for President Megawati’s
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), as compared with the 1999
parliamentary elections, to the lack of economic growth, Megawati’s governing style, and
continuing government corruption.2 The vote was generally peaceful with the exception
of limited fighting between Free Aceh Movement (GAM) forces and the Indonesian
National Defense Forces in the region of Nanggoroe, Aceh Darussalam.3 (See table below
for election results.)
1 Shoeb Kagda, “Indonesians Cast Votes,” The Business Times, April 6, 2004.
2 “Megawati’s Bid for New Mandate in Doubt as Indonesians Vote for Change,” Agence France
Presse, April 11, 2004.
3 “Indonesia’s Police Chief Says Clashes in Aceh No Disruption to Polling,” BBC Monitoring,
April 6, 2004.
Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress

---

CRS-2
Election Results
Party
Vote % 2004
Seats
% 1999
Golkar (Wiranto)
21.6
128
22.5
PDI-P Indonesian
18.5
109
33.7
Democratic Party of
Struggle (President
Megawati)
PKB National Awakening
10.57
52
12.7
Party (former President
Wahid)
PPP United Development
8.15
58
10.7
Party (Vice President
Hamzah Haz)
PD Democratic Party
7.45
57
Did not run
(Former Security Minister
Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono)
PAN National Mandate
6.44
52
7.2
Party (Speaker Amien Rais)
PKS Prosperous Justice
7.34
45
1.0
Party (Islamic based)
The biggest surprise in the April 2004 election was the performance of the Democrat
Party of Susilo BambangYudhoyono. Yudhoyono was President Megawati’s Security
Minister until he quit the cabinet in the lead-up to the April elections. Early analysis
attributed the party’s better than expected performance to the popularity of Yudhoyono.
In one pre-election poll Yudhoyono had a 21% approval rating. This has increased to a
46.6% approval rating. While the Democratic Party’s percentage of the vote is
significantly less than both the PDI-P’s and Golkar’s share, it is thought that the
individual personalities of the leaders will be a more influential factor in the presidential
vote in July.4 It has been reported that 58% of voters claimed no party affiliation prior to
the April poll.5
According to most observers, the 2004 parliamentary election proceeded in a
generally free and fair manner. They follow the 1999 election which was the first open
election since 1955. During the past two years, Golkar has remained a potent political
force. It did not suffer the significant loss of public support experienced by PDI-P in the
2004 parliamentary election. Seats formerly reserved for the military were eliminated
prior to the 2004 elections. Islamist parties seeking to institute Sharia law and have
Indonesia officially become an Islamic state exist but they have a relatively small
4 “Indonesian Presidential Favorite Surges in New Poll,” Reuters News, 22 April, 2004.
5 “Count Down to 2004,” United States - Indonesia Society, January 9, 2004.

---

CRS-3
following.6 The Islamist Justice Party is thought to have done well by downplaying its
Islamic agenda and instead focusing on good governance issues.7 The moderate Islamic
parties have drawn their support to a large extent, though not exclusively, from the
moderate Islamic organizations Muhammardiyah and Nahdlatul Ulama. These two groups
have extensive educational networks and approximately 60 million followers between
them.8
H.Res. 666, which congratulates Indonesia on completing successful elections and
praises the growing friendship between Indonesia and the United States, was sponsored
by Representative Dan Burton and co-sponsored by Representatives Robert Wexler, Doug
Bereuter and Earl Blumenauer. It has been referred to the House Committee on
International Relations for further consideration.
Presidential Election
A presidential election will be held on July 5, 2004 and if a second round is needed,
there will be a runoff election in September. Only parties that won 5% of the national
vote, or won 3% of parliamentary seats are allowed to contest the July 5 presidential
election. It is anticipated that no single candidate will win an outright first round victory,
which requires a majority of the vote with the additional requirement of 20% of the vote
being distributed among at least half of the provinces.9 This will most likely lead to a run-
off election between the two most popular candidates on September 20, 2004.10 There is
some concern that the elections may trigger violence in Java, Kalimantan, Poso, Central
Sulawezi, Makasar, Bali, and Papua, though this was not the case in the April poll.11 This
will be the first election where Indonesians will have the opportunity directly to vote for
the President. Some observers also note a focus on individual candidates and parties to
a greater extent than on issues and accountability of politicians by the Indonesian public
in 2004. In a recent poll, Indonesians rated unemployment, poverty and high prices as they
key issues for the election. They also viewed Yudhoyono and Kalla as best suited to deal
with these problems.12
Yudhoyono appears to be the most popular choice for President in the wake of the
April election. Yudhoyono has been called the “thinking general.”13 Born in 1949 in East
Java, he graduated from Indonesia’s military academy in 1973 and retired from the
6 “Historic Elections in Indonesia,” U.S.-Indonesia Society, April 19, 2004.
7 Devi Asmarani, “PKS Wins Votes by Downplaying Islamic Agenda,” The Straits Times, April
12, 2004.
8 Merle Ricklefs, “The Future of Indonesia,” History Today, December 1, 2003.
9 Andrew Ellis, “Indonesia’s New General Election Law,” United States - Indonesia Society, July
16, 2003.
10 John McBeth and Tom McCawley, “Bleak Prospects Ahead for the Front Runner,” Far Eastern
Economic Review, October 2, 2003.
11 Sri Wahyuni, “15 Areas May See Violence in 2004 Elections,” The Jakarta Post, January 21,
2004.
12 “New Poll Favors Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono,” US-Indonesia Society, June 15, 2004.
13 Rachael Harvey, “Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono,” BBC News, May 18, 2004.

---

CRS-4
military as a four star general in 2000 to join the government of Abdurrahman Wahid as
Minister for Mines and later Chief Minister for Security and Political Affairs. He also
served in President Megawati’s government.14 It is thought that SBY, as Yudhoyono is
also known, will take a firm stance against terrorism.15 His selection of Jusuf Kalla, who
is from Sulawezi, as his Vice President is thought to strengthen his chances for the
presidency.
Polling Data (6/15/04)
S.B. Yudhoyona & Jusuf
46.6%
Kall (PD)
Amien Rais & S.
19.7%
Yudhousodo (PAN)
Megawati Sukarnoputri &
13.78%
Hasyim Muzadi (PDI-P)
Wiranto (Golkar) &
10.56%
Solahuddin Wahid
Hamzah Haz & Agum
2.34%
Gumerlar (PPP)
Source: U.S.-Indonesia Society, “New Poll Favors Yudhoyona,”
June 15, 2004.
Another surprise in the lead-up to the presidential elections is the selection of
Wiranto to be the Golkar party presidential nominee. Wiranto defeated Golkar Chairman,
and Speaker of the Parliament, Akbar Tandjung in a 315 to 227 vote of Golkar party
delegates. Wiranto was indicted in February 2003 by United Nations prosecutors for his
alleged role in crimes against humanity in East Timor in 1999. The lodging of the arrest
warrant with interpol will mean that Wiranto could be arrested if he leaves the country.16
Bilateral relations with the United States could be greatly complicated should Wiranto
become President given the history of Congressional concern over human rights abuses
in East Timor. That said, U.S. Ambassador to Indonesia Ralph Boyce issued a statement
that “we can work with anybody that comes out of a free [election] process.”17 In 2000,
then-President Wahid removed Wiranto from the cabinet after Indonesia’s National
Human Rights Commission held him responsible for the violence that was associated with
the East Timor referendum.18
14 Tomi Soetjipto, “Indonesia Parties Manoeuver as Vote Count Drags on,” Reuters, April 12,
2004.
15 Rachael Harvey, “Indonesia’s Election Race Hots Up,” BBC News, April 26, 2004.
16 “Arrest Warrent for Jakarta General,” BBC News, May 10, 2004.
17 “U.S. Can Work with a Future President Wiranto,” Agence France Presse, 22 April, 2004.
18 Harvey Demaine, “Indonesia: Physical and Social Geography,” in The Far East and
Australaisa, (Surrey: Europa Publications, 2002), p. 502.

---

CRS-5
Wiranto has chosen former President Wahid’s brother Salahuddin Wahid as his Vice
President to attract the support of the National Awakening Party (PKB).19 Golkar has a
strong organization that dates back to the era of President Suharto. Wiranto may attract
support from the military. He also reportedly has good presence with the media and his
running mate, Salahuddin Wahid may attract PKB votes as well as support from Nahdatul
Ulama (NU). His chief liability is his record on human rights.20 Akbar Tandjung, who
Wiranto defeated for the Golkar nomination, has stated that “people don’t know much
about that issue. [Wiranto’s record on human rights] It may be important to students and
some of the elite, but it will not effect Wiranto’s candidacy.”21
A positive aspect of the post-Suharto period of reform has been the expansion of the
political party system. The opening of Indonesia’s democracy in the reformasi period
witnessed the emergence of a plethora of political parties. The number has decreased from
48 in 1999 to 24 in 2004. The National Awakening Party (PKB), was established in 1998
by NU which is believed to have a membership of some 30 million
“traditionalist”members -meaning pluralist and tolerant Muslims in the Indonesian
context.22 NU rejects the goal of establishing an Islamic state under Sharia law and is open
to non-Muslim members. 23 National Mandate Party’s (PAN) support base is drawn from
the “modernist” Islamic organization Muhammadiyah, which is headed by Amien Rais.
Rais was a key leader of the reformasi era. Rais has attracted the support of the hardline
Indonesia Mujahidin Council (MMI) and the Islamic Union Persis. This gives Rais
support of groups favoring an Islamic state.24
The United States government promotes democracy and good governance through
its support of organizations such as the Asia Foundation. The Asia Foundation is involved
with numerous programs designed to promote democratic political systems, non-violence
and religious tolerance, legal reform, human rights, conflict management, women’s
political participation, local governance, and private sector reform.25 In 2003, President
Bush announced an initiative to support educational reform in Indonesia to promote
secularism and good governance. Representative Dan Burton, discussing the objective of
the recently formed Indonesia Caucus, stated that “The United States has the ability to
support democratization in Indonesia by assisting in several key areas, including:
education, internal security, economic governance, and strengthening the Parliament.
19 “Major Party Endorses Wiranto Bid,” BBC News, May 26, 2004.
20 “USINDO Election Countdown,” U.S. - Indonesia Society, June 3, 2004.
21 Akbar Tandjung, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Republic of Indonesia, USINDO
10th Anniversary Lecture Series, May 14, 2004, Washington, DC.
22 Robert Hefner, “Islam and the State in the Post-Suharto Era,” in Adam Schwartz and Jonathan
Paris, The Politics of Post-Suharto Indonesia, (New York: The Council on Foreign Relations,
1999).
23 “Indonesia Backgrounder: A Guide to the 2004 Elections,” International Crisis Group,
December, 2003.
24 “Campaign Nuggets,” U.S. - Indonesia Society, June 15, 2004.
25 “Indonesia,” The Asia Foundation, [www.asiafoundation.org].

---

CRS-6
Indonesia has the potential of becoming an example of what can be achieved in a newly
democratized nation.”26
Indonesia has been making progress on government reform and the expansion of
democracy. Parliament passed legislation in 2003 to impose transparent accounting
standards for government and to establish an independent commission to prosecute
corruption.27 One can also point to the functioning of the General Elections Commission
in the lead up to the 2004 elections as a positive democratic development that helps
reinforce civil society in Indonesia.28 A vigorous and open media is another continuing
success of the developing civil society in Indonesia. The process of decentralization
currently underway also holds the prospect of greater say for average Indonesians in the
affairs of their daily lives. Indonesians are planning to exercise their right to vote in
significant numbers. In a 2003 poll, ninety three percent stated they planned to vote in the
presidential election in 2004.29
26 Office of Congressman Dan Burton, “Burton Announces the Formation of the Indonesia
Caucus,” February 12, 2004.
27 John McBeth, “The Betrayal of Indonesia,” Far Eastern Economic Review, June 26, 2003.
28 Christine Tjhin, “Civil Society After Akbar’s Acquittal,” The Jakarta Post, February 17, 2004.
29 Tim Meisburger, ed. Democracy in Indonesia: A Survey of the Indonesian Electorate in 2003
(Jakarta: The Asia Foundation, 2003), p.55.

---